Planejamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro
“Brazilian Power Sector Planning”
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPE
International Colloquium
“Sustainability and Environmental Assessment Methodologies:
The International Experience on Power Developments”
“Metodologias de Avaliação Ambiental e Sustentabilidade: A
Experiência Internacional na Expansão do Sistema
Eletroenergético”.
Recife, PE
July 15th, 2009
Energy Planning in Brazil
Brazilian Power Sector Planning
HYDROELECTRIC PREDOMINANCE
LONG TRANSMISSION LINES
INTENSIVE CAPITAL
LONG TERM INVESTMENTS
HIGH INCERTANTIES
MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES
COMPLEMENTARY GENERATION
SEASONALITY
RISK ANALYSIS
FAIR TARIFF
DIVERSITY
INTEGRATION
ENERGY SECURITY
Planning Process
STRATEGY VIEW
LONG TERM STUDIES (30
YEARS AHEAD)
PROGRAMMING VIEW
SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM
STUDIES (10 YEARS AHEAD)
NATIONAL ENERGY PLANNING
NATIONA ENERGY OUTLOOK
TEN YEARS ENERGY
PLANNING
AUCTIONS
Crude Oil and
Natural Gas
Electric Power
Transmission
Biodiesel
Scenarios for Electricity 2030 (GW)
SOURCES
2005
2015
2030
Large Hydro Power Plants
68.6
99.0
156.3
Thermal Power Plants
16.9
24.3
39.9
Natural Gas
8.7
13.0
21.0
Nuclear
2.0
3.3
7.3
Coal
1.4
2.5
6.0
Other
4.8
5.5
5.5
Alternatives
1.4
5.5
20.3
1.3
2.3
7.7
-
1.4
4.7
0.1
1.8
7.9
13.6
13.3
8.4
100.5
142.1
224.9
Small Hydro
Wind
Biomass
Imports + Other
TOTAL
Source: PNE 2030
Energy in Brazil – Renewable Sources Share
OECD
Countries 6.0
(2003)
World (2003)
Brazil (2005)
94.0
13.3
86.7
44.5
Renewables
0%
20%
Non - renewables
55.5
40%
60%
80%
100%
Source: Balanço Energético Nacional. EPE, 2006
Energy Integration
NATURAL ENERGY INFLOW (p.u.)
SUDESTE
3.0
SUL
2.5
NORDESTE
2.0
NORTE
1.5
ITAIPU
1.0
BELO
MONTE
TAPAJÓS
0.5
MANAUS
MADEIRA
0.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Storage Capacity (GWmed)
Belém
São Luís
Fortaleza
Tocantins
Natal
Teresina
N - 12
João Pessoa
Parnaíba
NE - 52
Recife
Maceió
São Francisco
Aracajú
Salvador
Cuiabá
Brasília
Goiânia
Paranaíba
Campo Grande
Grande
Paraná/Tietê
Paranapanema
Belo
Horizonte
SE/CO - 190
Vitória
Paraíba
do Sul
São Paulo
Itaipu
Iguaçu
S - 18
Argentina
Uruguai
Curitiba
Florianópolis
Jacui
Porto Alegre
Source: ONS – oct/2007
Rio de Janeiro
Storage Capacity Evolution
Maximum Storage / Demand
8.00
SUDESTE
7.00
SUL
6.00
NORDESTE
5.00
NORTE
4.00
ITAIPU
3.00
B.MONTE
2.00
TAPAJOS
MANAUS
1.00
MADEIRA
mai/23
mai/22
mai/21
mai/20
mai/19
mai/18
mai/17
mai/16
mai/15
mai/14
mai/13
mai/12
mai/11
mai/10
mai/09
mai/08
0.00
Long Transmission Lines
2008
4.000 km
2012
Connecting Madeira, Belo Monte and Teles Pires Plants
B.Monte
Itacaiunas
S.Antônio
Jirau
Teles
Pires
500 km
Cuiabá
Araraquara
Atibaia
N.Iguaçu
Transmission Lines Distribution
Existing System
Planned System
Hydro Power Plants
São Francisco River
4317 MW
A. SALES
PA I, II, III
PA IV
Installing Hydro Power Plants
Hydro Power Plant Life-Cycle in Brazil
EPE
ENTREPRENEUR
ENTREPRENEUR
ANEEL
MME
ANEEL
EPE
RENEWAL OF
OPERATION
LICENSE
PRIOR
LICENSE
INVENTORY
STUDIES AND
INTEGRATED
ENVIRONMENTAL
EVALUATION
2 years
FEASIBILITY
STUDIES AND
STUDIES ON
ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACT
ASSESSMENT
1.5 year
INSTALLATION
LICENSE
QUALIFI
CATION
AUCTION
0.5 year
OPERATION
LICENSE
BASIC PROJECT
CONSTRUCTION
OPERATION
1 year
4 years
> 50 years
Hydro Generation - Criteria and Procedures
Socio-environmental Analysis Scheme
Socio-environmental Analysis
Category 1
Category 2
Category 3
Category 4
Process Analysis
Compatible
Small delay
Delay
Recommended Level of Action
Low
Intermediate
High
Special
Environmental Assessment of Hydroelectric Supply
Assessment Scale (Level of Impact)
A
B
C
D
E
non
significant
low
significance
significant
high
significance
extremely
significant
Impacts assessed
•
•
socioeconomic and cultural dimension
Physic-biotical environment
socioeconomic-cultural environment
Two letters represent the assessment
NN
Classification of the projects
according to the assessment
Physic-biotic Dimension
Physic-biotical dimension
Socioeconomical Dimension
A
B
C
D
E
A
1
1
2
3
4
B
1
1
2
3
4
C
2
2
2
3
4
D
3
3
3
4
4
E
4
4
4
4
4
Viabilização da oferta hidroelétrica
Required Level of Action
Socio-environmental
Classification
Process Assessment
Compatible
Small delay
Delay
1
Low
Low
Intermediate
2
Low
Intermediate
Intermediate
3
Intermediate
Intermediate
High
4
High
High
High
Special Level of Action
All projects with constraints to be qualified for taking part in the
energy auctions
Hydro supply classification according to the level of action
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (GHG)
FuelCombustível
oil
Óleo
Óleo
Diesel
Diesel
TOTAL
Total
Mt.CO2 eq.
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
Natural
gas
Gás
Natural
Carvão
Coal Mineral
Accumulated value 2008-2017
Thermal Power Plants: 296 Mt CO2eq
39 MtCO2eq.)
10
5
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (GHG)
GHG Emission
(due to electricity production)
3 000
2 815
2 615
2 500
1 548
1 500
620
541
424
500
263
34
Br
az
il
20
08
il
Br
az
ge
nt
in
a
Ar
a
Af
r ic
ia
So
ut
h
Ru
ss
Ja
pa
n
In
di
a
Un
io
n
Eu
ro
pe
Ch
in
a
0
Countries
39
14
20
17
1 000
US
A
Mt.CO2
2 000
Biomass
Expansion Perspectives for Sugar Cane Production
Harvest
106
ton/year
106
ha
2007
495
6.9
2010
570
7.5
2015
715
9.1
2030
1,140
13.9
possible expansion areas
for the growing of sugar cane
Source: MME and MAPA apud Silvestrin in Theme Meetings at the EPE, 2006
The Ministry of the Agriculture is identifying the Brazilian land appropriated
to produce sugarcane without impacting the environment.
Technical Potential of Sugarcane Bagass
Production of sugar cane
(millions of tons)
Technical Potential
(TWh / year)
Generation technology
Harvesting system
400
700
1.000
Without recovery
8.1
14.2
20.3
With recovery
116
20.4
29.1
Without recovery
24.3
42.6
60.8
With recovery
34.9
61
87.2
Without recovery
46.4
81.3
116.1
With recovery
77.5
135.6
193.7
Without recovery
96.1
168.2
240.3
142.2
248.8
355.5
Backpressure cycle (current)
Optimum backpressure cycle
Condensation and extraction cycle
Gasification of biomass and combined
cycle
With recovery
Source: Tolmasquim et al (2005)
Wind Power
Brazilian Wind Power Potential
• Brazilian Power Sector
• The estimated generation potential is
about 31 GWmed, as much as 59% of
the current energy market
• Taking into account the new technologies
of wind power plants and the last wind
measuring in Brazil (e.g. Atlas Eólico do
Espírito Santo, Jun, 6th 2009), the total
installed capacity can be higher than 300
GW.
Evolution of Wind Power Technology
Ø 112m
4.500 kW
Ø 70m
1.500 kW
Ø 46m
600 kW
Ø 37m
500 kW
Ø 30m
300 kW
Ø 15m
50 kW
1985 1989
1992
1994
1998
2000
Sources: Kuik, 2002 Kujava, 2003, apud Tolmasquim et al (2005)
Nuclear Energy
Nuclear Energy in the World: Uranium Resources - 2003
 In 2003, the 77% of the conventional resources, with cost under US$
130/kg U, were located in 7 countries (Brazil is the 6th)
Country
103 ton
Share
Cazaquistan
957
21.0%
Australia
910
19.8%
South Africa
369
8.0%
USA
355
7.7%
Canada
332
7.2%
Brazil
309
6.7%
Namibia
287
6.3%
Subtotal
3,519
77.0%
Remainder
1,069
23.0%
4,588
100%
World
Source: INB, AIEA
Nuclear Power Potential in Brazil
Assumptions
Lifetime: 40 years
Capacity Factor: 85%
Exploration Cost
Reserves
Generation Potential
< 40 US$/kg U
66,200 t U3O8
8,000 MW
< 80 US$/kg U
177,500 t U3O8
21,000 MW
< 80 US$/kg U
309,370 t U3O8
35,000 MW
(Inferred resources included )
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
[g CO2-equiv. / kWh] (*)
LIGNITE
COAL
OIL
NATURAL GAS
SOLAR PV
HYDRO POWER
BIOMASS
WIND
NUCLEAR
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
* Taking into account the lifecycle emissions
350
400
Source: IEA (2004)
Auction of “New” Energy
The Auction Process
Ten Years Energy
Planning
Technical Assessment
of Energy Sources
List of Plants
Qualified to Sell
Energy
Utilities’
Commitment to
Buy Energy
Energy Auction
Power Auctions
Power Purchase Agreement from New Plants
Law 10.848/2002
Auctions of “A-5” and “A-3”
PPA with a term of 15 to 35 years
Purchase in “A-3”
limited to 2% of the load from “A-5”
Purchase in “A-5”
Hydro Plant Paulo Afonso/Bahia
A-5
A-4
A-3
A-2
A-1
A
Power Auctions PPA
Belém
São Luís
Fortaleza
Natal
Teresina
João Pessoa
Recife
Maceió
Aracajú
Salvador
Cuiabá
Brasília
Goiânia
Belo
Horizonte
Campo Grande
Vitória
Rio de Janeiro
São Paulo
Curitiba
Florianópolis
Porto Alegre
BILATERAL CONTRACTS
Santo Antônio Hydro Power Plant - Madeira River
General Data
Installed Capacity : 3,150.4 MW
Turbine:
Bulbo
Unities:
44
Unity Power Potential:71.6 MW
Firm Energy:
2,218 MWmed
Site
Energy Auction
December 10th, 2007
Energy Price - ACR
78.87 R$/MWh or 46.95 US$/MWh*
Illustrative Design
*1,68 R$ = 1,00 US$
Jirau Hydro Power Plant – Madeira River
General Data
Installed Capacity : 3,300 MW
Turbine:
Bulbo
Unities:
44
Unity Power Potential:75 MW
Firm Energy:
1,975.3 MW médios
Energy Auction
May 19th, 2008
Energy Price - ACR
71.37 R$/MWh or 42.48 US$/MWh *
*1,68 R$ = 1,00 US$
Historical of Energy Auction
2005
2006
2007
2008
dec/05 – 1º “New” Energy Auction
jun/06 – 2º “New” Energy Auction (A-3)
oct/06 – 3º “New” Energy Auction (A-5)
jun/07 – 1º Alternative Energy Auction
jul/07 – 4º “New” Energy Auction (A-3)
oct/07 – 5º “New” Energy Auction (A-5)
dec/07 – 1º SP Auction - UHE Sto Antônio
may/08 – 2º SP Auction - UHE Jirau
- 1º Reserve Energy Auction
jul/08 –
5º “New” Energy Auction (A-3)
oct/08 – 6º “New” Energy Auction (A-5)
38
2009 - Energy Auction
2009
aug/09 – 7º “New” Energy Auction (A-3)
oct/09 – 3º SP Auction - UHE Belo Monte
nov/09 - 2º Reserve Energy Auction
dec/09 – 8º “New” Energy Auction (A-5)
39
Annual Capacity Growth (MW)
SOURCES
HYDRO
SMALL HYDRO
NUCLEAR
FUEL OIL
NATURAL GAS
DIESEL
COAL
BIOMASS
WIND
OTHERS
TOTAL
2008
0
0
0
0
371
0
0
20
0
0
391
2009
707
1 207
0
304
110
859
0
655
771
490
5 103
2010
1 984
1 103
0
1 732
216
174
350
2 360
378
0
8 298
2011
1 733
155
0
1 440
496
0
700
59
0
0
4 582
2012
657
30
0
426
564
-564
350
0
0
0
1 463
2013
2 461
414
0
3 618
1 677
-553
360
114
0
0
8 091
2014
1 986
875
1 350
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4 211
2015
5 397
320
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
900
6 617
2016
7 342
320
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7 662
2017
6 536
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6 536
TOTAL
28 805
4 423
1 350
7 520
3 434
-83
1 760
3 208
1 149
1 390
52 955
CHALLENGE
To supply energy at fair prices
to develop the country
following the principles of
sustainable growth
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética - EPE
Av. Rio Branco nº 1 11º andar
Centro
Rio de Janeiro
Thanks for your attention!