Ministério da Ciência e Tecnologia Impacts of Climate Change in Land Use, Food Security and Agricultural Production in Brazil Gilberto Câmara National Institute for Space Research Brazil Battisti et al (2009) (1900-2006) Downscaling Climate Change Models Data Peta-scale centres Megascenarios GHG Emissions Índice de Vegetação B1-low Regional Scenarios Public Policies Regional Centres (e.g., INPE) Precipitation anomalies [(2071-2100)- (1961-90)] in mm/day Seco Seco Seco Seco B2 A2 Climate change scenarios in Brazil Quente Quente B2 Temperature anomalies [(2071-2100)- (1961-90)] in oC A2 Impacts on Agriculture Redução da área potencial em função do aumento da temperatura entre 1 ºC e 5,8 ºC Área Pontecial (1000 km2) 6000 Milho 5000 Feijão 4000 Arroz 3000 2000 Soja 1000 Café Arábica 0 Atual T + 1ºC T + 3 ºC T + 5,8 ºC Aumento na temperatura média source: Eduardo Assad, Embrapa Collapse of Amazon Rain Forest? 2100 2000 forest savanna caatinga pastures desert Is there a tipping point for Amazonia? source: Oyama and Nobre, 2003 Impacts on Water Availability in NE Brazil 1961-1990 Hidrological Balance – NE Brazil Less Water for Agriculture! 2071-2100 Source: Marengo and Salati, 2007 Brazil´s policy for fighting global change Reduce emissions by 20% from 20052020 (with 5% yearly growth) Technology leader in biofuels Reduce deforestation in Amazonia by 80% until 2020 Technology transfer of land remote sensing Research in tropical agriculture In 2020, increase reneweable energy use from 46% to 55% FAO-INPE agreement A Global Forest Information System LANDSAT TM (30 m) CBERS HRC (2,5 m) Navigate, describe, understand: the goals of an MRV system Global Land Information System National, int´l agencies Free spatial data Congo DR OpenForestMap WikiForest Scientists, Citizens, Markets Angola Development as Freedom (Amartya Sen) The goal of development is the promotion and expansion of valuable capabilities. Capability is the freedom to achieve valuable beings and doings.