Ministério da
Ciência e Tecnologia
Impacts of Climate Change in Land Use, Food
Security and Agricultural Production in Brazil
Gilberto Câmara
National Institute for Space Research
Brazil
Battisti et al (2009)
(1900-2006)
Downscaling Climate Change Models
Data
Peta-scale centres
Megascenarios
GHG Emissions
Índice de Vegetação
B1-low
Regional Scenarios
Public Policies
Regional Centres
(e.g., INPE)
Precipitation anomalies [(2071-2100)- (1961-90)] in mm/day
Seco
Seco
Seco
Seco
B2
A2
Climate change scenarios in Brazil
Quente
Quente
B2
Temperature anomalies [(2071-2100)- (1961-90)] in oC A2
Impacts on Agriculture
Redução da área potencial em função do aumento da
temperatura entre 1 ºC e 5,8 ºC
Área Pontecial (1000 km2)
6000
Milho
5000
Feijão
4000
Arroz
3000
2000
Soja
1000
Café
Arábica
0
Atual
T + 1ºC
T + 3 ºC
T + 5,8 ºC
Aumento na temperatura média
source: Eduardo Assad, Embrapa
Collapse of Amazon Rain Forest?
2100
2000
forest
savanna
caatinga
pastures
desert
Is there a tipping point for Amazonia?
source: Oyama and Nobre, 2003
Impacts on Water Availability in NE Brazil
1961-1990
Hidrological Balance – NE Brazil
Less Water for
Agriculture!
2071-2100
Source: Marengo and Salati, 2007
Brazil´s policy for fighting global change
Reduce emissions
by 20% from 20052020 (with 5%
yearly growth)
Technology leader in
biofuels
Reduce deforestation in
Amazonia by 80% until 2020
Technology transfer of land
remote sensing
Research in tropical
agriculture
In 2020, increase
reneweable energy use
from 46% to 55%
FAO-INPE agreement
A Global Forest Information System
LANDSAT TM (30 m)
CBERS HRC (2,5 m)
Navigate, describe, understand: the goals of an MRV system
Global Land Information System
National, int´l agencies
Free spatial data
Congo DR
OpenForestMap
WikiForest
Scientists, Citizens, Markets
Angola
Development as Freedom
(Amartya Sen)
The goal of development is the promotion and
expansion of valuable capabilities. Capability is the
freedom to achieve valuable beings and doings.