Rendibilidade da Educação
Pedro Telhado Pereira
Universidade da Madeira, CEPR and IZA
Os trabalhadores portugueses
apresentam uma baixa instrução
Relembremos que as populações mais jovens não estavam a
recuperar a um bom ritmo
População com o Secundário Completo (1999), por grupos de idade
País
25-64
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
Espanha
35
55
41
25
13
Grécia
50
71
58
42
24
Irlanda
51
67
56
41
31
Itália
42
55
50
37
21
Portugal
21
30
21
15
11
 Todos
os países, com excepção
de Portugal, apresentam um
crescimento de mais de 30%
entre a geração dos 55-64 e a
dos 25-34
 Portugal
apresenta um
crescimento de menos de
20%
Passados quase dez anos em
2008
População com o Secundário Completo (2008), por grupos de idade
País
25-64
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
Espanha
51
65
57
45
29
Grécia
61
75
69
56
39
Irlanda
69
85
75
62
45
Itália
53
69
57
49
35
Portugal
28
47
29
20
13
Portugal já ultrapassou os 30% de
diferença


No entanto menos de metade da
geração mais jovem (25-34) tem o
secundário completo.
Os valores apresentados por esta
geração são semelhantes aos das
gerações 20 anos mais velhas nos
países comparados.
No Ensino Superior
População com o Ensino Superior Completo (2008), por grupos de idade
País
25-64
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
Espanha
29
39
33
24
16
Grécia
23
28
27
22
15
Irlanda
34
45
37
27
19
Itália
14
20
15
12
10
Portugal
14
23
15
10
8
Para a geração mais nova, a Itália está
pior

No entanto, Portugal ainda está
muito abaixo dos outros países com
os quais comparamos
Relembre o investimento em
capital humano
Suponha que não existem custos de
estudar ou que estes são
compensados pelos rendimentos
durante o tempo de estudo.
Temos dois fluxos de salários


Sem educação
S0

i 18
i 18 (1  r )

Com educação

S1

i 18
i 19 (1  r )
São iguais quando
S1  (1  r )  S 0
O que os economistas calculam
ln S  A  rEd
Portugal é o país dos considerados que apresenta
maior rendibilidade da educação

A taxa de rendibilidade média para os
países considerados é de 7,8%.

A taxa mínima é de 4.1% para a Suécia

A taxa máxima é para Portugal 12,6
A rendibilidade da educação tem apresentado uma
tendência crescente (cerca de 1% por década).
Graph 3 - Returns to Education, Linear Specification, 1982-1995
13.0%
12.5%
12.0%
11.5%
11.0%
10.5%
10.0%
9.5%
9.0%
8.5%
8.0%
1982
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1991
1992
1993
Years
All
Men
Women
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
O aumento de rendibilidade não resultou de uma
diminuição dos salários reais das pessoas com
menor educação
Graph 4 - Average Hourly Real Wages, Different Skill Groups, Men, 1982-1998
1998 Escudos
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1982
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Years
Young, Low Ed
Old, Low Ed
Young, Med Ed
Old, Med Ed
Young, High Ed
Old, High Ed
1998
A cohort dos mais velhos e mais educados é a que
apresenta evolução mais crescente
A licenciatura é o grau que apresenta
maior rendibilidade
Graph 8 - Average Marginal Returns to School Degrees , 1982, 1991 and 1998
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2nd/1st cycles
3rd/2nd cycles
Sec/3rd cycle
School Degrees Compared
1982
1991
1998
Bachar/Sec.
Licenc/Sec.
A
Licenciatura apresentava
uma taxa de rendibilidade
média por ano de 18%
 Esta
taxa é 10% superior à
do Ensino Secundário
Na rendibilidade do superior….
As engenharias, a gestão e a economia lideram
Table 1 – Returns to Degree Type and Content, 1995
Degree Type
Degree Content
All
Men
Wome
n
"Bacharelato"
Management and Economics
270%
262%
267%
"Bacharelato"
Engineering
368%
325%
408%
"Bacharelato"
Human and Social Sciences
240%
224%
262%
"Bacharelato"
Other Degrees
318%
327%
319%
"Licenciatura"
Management and Economics
500%
471%
498%
"Licenciatura"
Engineering
504%
450%
548%
"Licenciatura"
Human and Social Sciences
431%
331%
492%
"Licenciatura"
Other Degrees
438%
373%
492%
Em 2006 (EAG 2010)


Os homens com Ensino Superior
ganhavam mais 90% e as mulheres
mais 78% do que o correspondente
aos que ficaram com o Ensino
Secundário.
Este valor tem permanecido quase
constante na última década.
Conclusão sobre a rendibilidade da
Educação



Portugal é um país que apresenta
uma alta rendibilidade da educação
No entanto, apresenta também um
alto risco no investimento em
educação, como veremos a seguir.
A alta rendibilidade tem-se mantido
Quanto à formação profissional:


Parece não haver aumentos de salários
com o sistema de aprendizes ou nas
escolas profissionais.
Existem aumentos de salários quando a
formação profissional se executa em
instituições de ensino superior ou nas
empresas
Os resultados utilizando o ECHP




Confirmam os resultados obtidos utilizando
os Quadros de Pessoal
A rendibilidade da educação é maior no
sector privado que no público (como
veremos a seguir)
Não existe problema de selectividade na
amostra feminina
Não confirmam a teoria do sinal.
Discutiremos mais adiante esta teoria.
O sector público parece oferecer menor
rendibilidade à educação do que o sector privado.
Existe, no entanto, um prémio salarial de cerca de
40% no sector público.
Table 4 – Returns to Education in the Public and Private Sector
Educatio
n
All sample
Public
Private
8.2%
7.4%
8.9%
Os resultados não confirmam a
teoria do sinal
Table 6 – Returns to Education, Employees and Self-Employed
Educatio
n
Employees
SelfEmployed
.099
.117
As regressões de quantis mostram uma
grande dispersão nos resultados
Graph 9 - Returns to Education, Quantile Regression, 1982, 86, 91 and 95
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1982
1986
1991
Years
10th percentile
50th percentile
90th percentile
1995
Existe uma relação positiva entre o
nível e o risco
Table 5 - Country Rankings, OLS and QR results
Rank1
Diff
Country
OLS
Rank2
Portugal
Austria
Switzerl.
12.6
9.7
9.5
1
2
3
8.9
5.6
1.9
16
15
5
Ireland
Finland
Spain
UK
Germany
France
Netherl.
8.9
8.9
8.6
8.6
8
7.6
7
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2.6
3.3
2.4
4.8
0.3
3.4
3
8
11
7
14
2
10
9
Greece
Denmark
Italy
US
Norway
Sweden
Average
St
Deviation
6.5
6.6
6.4
6.3
6
4.1
7.8
2
11
12
13
14
15
16
-1.9
0.8
0.4
4
2.1
3.8
2.8
2.5
1
4
3
13
6
12
A soma das duas ordens dá cerca de 17 para grande número
de países. Verifica-se que a alta rendibilidade está associada
ao alto risco.
Table 5 - Country Rankings, OLS and QR results
Rank1
Diff
Country
OLS
Rank2
Portugal
Austria
Switzerl.
12.6
9.7
9.5
1
2
3
8.9
5.6
1.9
16
15
5
Ireland
Finland
Spain
UK
Germany
France
Netherl.
8.9
8.9
8.6
8.6
8
7.6
7
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2.6
3.3
2.4
4.8
0.3
3.4
3
8
11
7
14
2
10
9
Greece
Denmark
Italy
US
Norway
Sweden
Average
St
Deviation
6.5
6.6
6.4
6.3
6
4.1
7.8
2
11
12
13
14
15
16
-1.9
0.8
0.4
4
2.1
3.8
2.8
2.5
1
4
3
13
6
12
Os países que apresentam mais alta rendibilidade são os que
menos apoiam os alunos e as suas famílias
Ordem na
Rendibilidade
Ordem no
Apoio
Financeiro
Soma
Portugal
1
7
8
Áustria
2
7
9
Irlanda
3
5
8
Espanha
4
9
13
UK
5
4
9
Alemanha
6
6
12
Holanda
7
3
10
Grécia
8
11
19
Dinamarca
9
2
11
Itália
10
11
21
Suécia
11
1
12
Alguns resultados da investigação
levada a cabo na UMa sobre a
rendibilidade da formação profissional
Algumas notas sobre a formação
profissional

Resultados de Budria e Pereira (“The Wage Effects
of Training in Portugal: Differences across skill
groups, genders, sectors and training types”,
Applied Economics, 2007, “The Contribution of
Vocational Training to Employment, Job-related
Skills and Productivity: Evidence from Madeira
Island”, International Journal of Training and
Development, 2009, “Are Vocational Training
Programs Truly Effective? Evidence from Selfassessed Data”, ICFAI Journal of Training and
Development, 2009 and “Subjective Assessment on
Vocational Training Activities: A Generalized
Ordered Probit Approach”, Empirical Research in
Vocational Education and Training, 2010.
Resultados usando Inquérito ao
Emprego 1998 a 2000




A participação na formação profissional
aumenta com a educação sendo que os
mais educados têm uma probabilidade de
participação que é 3 vezes superiores.
A participação decresce com a idade, é
superior no Sector Público e se a pessoa
tem um segundo emprego.
Tem taxas de rendibilidade superiores a
10%.
A rendibilidade é menor para os mais
educados
Resultados usando o Inquérito à Inserção, Direcção Regional de
Formação Profissional, 2000 a 2005.




Um mês após o fim da formação
profissional a maioria encontra emprego.
A educação primária aumenta a
probabilidade de estar empregue após
dois anos em 1,75 vezes
A educação secundária aumenta a
probabilidade de estar empregue após
dois anos em 7,22 vezes
A
educação
superior
aumenta
a
probabilidade de estar empregue após
dois anos 11,78 vezes


Existe complementaridade entre a
educação e a formação profissional. Os
mais educados têm não só maior
probabilidade de encontrar emprego mas
também são os que mais consideram
que a formação os ajudou a encontrar o
emprego, que está relacionada com o
emprego corrente e que aumentou a sua
produtividade nesse emprego.
Existe um alto nível de satisfação com a
formação profissional na Madeira.
Conclusão sobre a formação
profissional

Usando dados para Portugal vemos
que são os menos educados os que
mais ganham com a formação
profissional. No entanto, dados para
a Madeira mostram que os
aumentos da empregabilidade, das
competências no emprego e da
produtividade resultantes da
formação profissional aumentam
com a educação.
Revisão da literatura



Previous results
Results from “The Wage Effects of Training in
Portugal: Differences across skill groups, genders,
sectors and training types”
Results from “The Contribution of Vocational Training
to Employment, Job-related Skills and Productivity:
Evidence from Madeira Island”, International Journal
of Training and Development, 2009, 13:1, pp. 53-72,
“Are Vocational Training Programs Truly Effective?
Evidence from Self-assessed Data”, ICFAI Journal of
Training and Development, 2009 and “Subjective
Assessment on Vocational Training Activities: A
Generalized Ordered Probit Approach”, forthcoming
Empirical Research in Vocational Education and
Training


In a research previous to our joint research, Pedro
Pereira and some colleagues ( Joop Hartog , Pedro
Pereira, José Vieira, "Vocational Training and Earnings in
Portugal", Economia, vol. XXIV, Janeiro/Maio/Outubro
2000, 35-52) using data from the European Community
Household Panel, 1994 (3598 obs., men 2193, women
1405), five training types: 1) at College; 2) at Vocational
School; 3) in a Working environment; 4) in a Dual system
and 5) Less than one year, found that:
Returns to training are significant: Men 11,4%, Women
6,7%, but not in all types of training. It is higher if the
training is taken in at a College ( Men 32,6%, Women
15,2%) and for men also in a working environment (Men
18,1%, Women not significantly different from zero). It is
lower but still significantly different from zero if the
training is less than one year (Men 9,3%, Women 7,6%),
but it is not significantly different from zero if taken in a
Vocational School or in a Dual system.

Using data from Inquérito ao Emprego (Labor
Survey) 1998 to 2000, we (see Santiago
Budria e Pedro Pereira, “The Wage Effects of
Training in Portugal: Differences across skill
groups, genders, sectors and training types”,
Applied Economics, 2007, 39, 787–807) saw
the influence of different types of training in
wages and studied the participation in
training.
The types of training considered were
the following:

The empirical results show that the
participation into training increases
with education (more educated are
more prone to participate - more
than 3 times), decreases with age,
increases if in the Public Sector for
men and is higher if a person has a
second job.

The returns to training were 12.7%
for men and for women 8.4%, but
were much higher if we corrected
by selectivity (returns to training
with treatment effects - 30.3% for
men, 37.5% for women).



When considering the returns to different
types of training we found that they are
higher in company training than in external
training.
When considering the selectivity correction
training to improve future skills has a return
that is not significantly different from zero
while the returns are positive if the training
is to increase skills at the current job.
Training of short term duration seems to
bring higher returns than longer term
courses.

We used interactions terms to see
the influence of education on
returns to training and found that,
in our data, returns are lower for
more educated people.
Conclusion

That lead us to conclude that
training has a remedial effect
meaning that people with lower
education can overcome this
“handicap” through training and this
way decrease the wage gap to
people with more education.

In more recent research we used data from the
Survey of Insertion 2000 to 2005 (Inquérito à
Inserção, Direcção Regional de Formação
Profissional) (Santiago Budria and Pedro Telhado
Pereira, “The Contribution of Vocational Training to
Employment, Job-related Skills and Productivity:
Evidence from Madeira Island”, International Journal
of Training and Development, 2009, 13:1, pp. 53-72,
“Are Vocational Training Programs Truly Effective?
Evidence from Self-assessed Data”, ICFAI Journal of
Training and Development, 2009 and “Subjective
Assessment on Vocational Training Activities: A
Generalized Ordered Probit Approach”, Empirical
Research in Vocational Education and Training(2009)

This survey is carried out to evaluate the effects of
vocational training programs on the transition to the
labor market in Madeira Island, Portugal. The information
provided in the survey can be divided in two main blocks.
In the first block, individuals are asked to report their
employment status at three different dates: one month,
one year, and two years after the completion of the
program. We use this information to explore how the
probability of employment depends on the individual
characteristics and on the type of vocational program. In
the second block, individuals are asked to assess the
extent to which the training i) facilitated their access to
employment, ii) was related to their current job and iii)
enhanced their productivity in the job. We use this
information to assess the contribution of training along
these dimensions and to explore how this contribution
differs across groups of workers and across training
programs.

One month after the completion of the
training the majority had found a paid
job, but the percentage of males that
found it was higher than the percentage
of females. This percentage was
increasing with time for males, but no for
females as the percentage that were
unemployed after two years is higher
than the percentage after one year This
means that women have more difficulty of
finding a job and the job is less stable.
We use a logit model to study the influence of education, age, gender,
duration of training, field of training in the probability of being
employed.

Having primary, secondary or tertiary education
increases the predicted probability by a factor of
1.75, 7.22, and 11.78 respectively of being
employed after two years. After one month the
coefficients are not significantly different from
zero, and after one year only the coefficient for
having a secondary education is significant.


Age has a negative effect (significant at
the two years span). Being a woman also
has a negative impact, especially after
two years where the odd ratio is less than
0.3.
Training in Tourism or Electronics or
Energy has a positive impact on
employment. The duration of training has
also a positive effect.
To study the effectiveness of the training we start by doing a ordered
logit regression.

We see that there are complementary effects
between schooling and training. Not only do the
more educated have higher chances of getting a
job, they also consider that training helped them
to get that job and that the training was related
to their current job and that they are more
productive due to the training.
This is even more evident when we
consider the results of a generalized
order probit approach below.




The probability of being completely satisfied with the
training in terms of contributing for employment
increases with education. 25.7% for those with
secondary education and 37.8% for those with higher
education. This observation suggests that the
complementarity of training and education acts,
therefore, by improving the chances that an individual
is completely satisfied with his/her training activity.
Having participated in a long program significantly
raises the probability of giving the highest score to the
training activity but, in turn, does not prevent an
individual from reporting the lowest evaluation.
The same kind of results was obtained for the
satisfaction with the skills and with the increase in
productivity.
The degree of satisfaction with the training is high

In Madeira Island, the public provision of
vocational training is highly centralized at
the regional level, which has resulted in a
relatively small number of vocational
paths, a clearer mapping between the
regional labor market needs and
vocational courses and a wider
recognition by regional employers.
Screening and signaling effects are more
likely to operate in this particular context,
providing training completers with useful
labor market credentials.
Final conclusion

In Portugal less educated workers earned a higher
wage premium from training activities, and concluded
that training had a remedial nature. The results using
the data from Madeira suggest that this is not the case
when it comes to employment opportunities, jobrelated skills and productivity. If policy makers are
concerned with promoting employment among the less
favoured in the labour market, the existing training
schemes should be redesigned in order to amend the
educational and skills limitations that some training
participants exhibit from the start. In this respect,
training aimed to acquire general skills and
competencies rather than specific knowledge may be of
particular importance
Rendibilidade da Educação e
Função Salários
The paradigm of the two islands –
Pereira and Martins (2004)





two islands
(I1) with a productivity per capita
of P
(I2) with a productivity per capita of
Q
P<Q.
The inhabitants of the islands live
an eternal life (all are born at the
same moment) and maximize the
present value of their production.



The inhabitants of I1 can move to
I2 if they spend one period learning
how to swim.
The only cost is the product they
forgo during that period.
The discount rate is uniformly
distributed between (r1, r2);
f(r)=1/(r2-r1).
The decision of learning to swim is made by comparing
(E1)

P

i
i  0 (1  r )
and
(E2)

Q

i
i 1 (1  r )




There is a value of r, rc, such that
E1=E2.
Let us assume that r1 < rc < r2.
If r < rc then E1 < E2 and the
individual decides to learn to swim
and thereafter swims from I1 to I2.
If r > rc then E1 > E2 and the
individual does not learn to swim
and stays on I1.
Therefore, there will be S1 proportion
of swimmers, where
rc
S1   f (r )dr
r1
We end up with three groups of individuals:
1) living on island one,
2) living on island two and born there, and
3) living on island two and born on island one.



The “labour economists” want to explain the
differences in productivity and therefore they can do
so by examining the place where the person is living
(the wage equation approach).
But suppose that we are interested in studying the
“returns” to education (learning to swim). We must
then look at the persons born on island one and see
the differentials in their productivities as the return
we are looking for. This is what “education
economists” look for.
We could never find this return if we considered the
place of residence as one of the explanatory variables
of the productivity differential, the reason being that
this covariate is a result of learning to swim for
people born on island one.
This example illustrates

the difference between wage
equations - where education is one
of the explanatory variables - and
returns to education - where all the
indirect effects should be accounted
for.
When an individual (or his family)
decides the amount of education he
wants to have



he knows that education is going to bring him a
better paid job,
but at the same time gives him more
opportunities in choosing other characteristics as,
for instance, the sector and firm where he ends
up working in.
Part of the private return from education to the
individual is going to be through the return he will
get from the posterior choices he can make.