Proposta de roteiro 1. Apresentação (oral) – falar do MAPS/IES-Br? (1 slide) 1. Maps internacional 2. Projeto participativo 3. FBMC, a pedido do MMA 2. Objetivos do estudo: cenários de longo prazo, 2 cenários (CPG x CMA2), que efeitos queremos estudar (emprego, PIB, PIB per capita, desigualdade, poder de compra) (1 slide) 3. Metodologia (Imaclim, figura bottom-up, message, etc.) (2 Slides) -Descrição Imaclim (modelo híbrido, foco em energia, ano-base 2005), exemplos de medidas modeladas (ex: etanol, eficiência energética, etc.) - Slide com aquela figura que mostra a conexão dos modelos que propus na tese e foi usada no IES 4. Resultados - emprego, PIB, PIB per capita, desigualdade, poder de compra, emissões(???) 5. Conclusões - A implementação de uma política climática ambiciosa não seria um impedimento para um forte crescimento econômico alinhado a um grande ganho social (Variações no PIB marginais, tendência de aumento do poder de compra e redução tb marginal da desigualdade). Impacts of mitigation policies on labor markets and welfare Carolina Grottera and William Wills July 2015 IES-Brasil project - A participative process stakeholder involvement Academia, companies, government, civil society, NGOs - Part of the MAPS initiative - Brazilian Forum on Climate Change, supported by the Ministry of Environment Objective It aims to analyses the economic and social effects of a variety of GHG mitigation scenarios in Brazil until 2030 - We will focus on the effects on GDP, employment, income distribution and purchasing power MA2 or MA2 + T CPG Governmental Planning Scenario Mitigation Scenario vs. or Mitigation Scenario + US$100/tCO2e carbon tax Methodology - We combine a top-down model, the IMACLIM-BR... - - A hybrid general equilibrium model Focused on energy Integrated monetary and physical data ...with sectoral bottom-up models AFOLU Energy Waste Transport Industry There are plenty of mitigation actions available in all sectors Modeling framework Industrial Processes Agriculture, Forestry & Other Land Use BLUM IMACLIMBR CGE model LEAP MESSAGE Energy Transport Waste CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS During the course of the project, the IES-Brasil team analysed what might happen, should a carbon pricing strategy be adopted worldwide. This was explored by considering a carbon tax on the burning of fossil fuels. As such, two additional scenarios were simulated: MA1+T adopting the same mitigation measures as those tested in MA1 in addition to a global carbon tax of US$ 20/tCO2 MA2+T adopting the same mitigation measures as those tested in MA1 in addition to a global carbon tax of US$ 100/tCO2 CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) Trillion US$ (2005 constant) XX XX XX XX X X X X XX X XX X In the scenarios that do not consider a global carbon tax, GDP grows less than in the CPG This is due to the reduction in economic activity: the highest emitting sectors are affected by paying the carbon tax CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%) The unemployment rate falls. This is due to the hypothesis adopted by the SBT, that the revenues from the carbon tax offset income tax in order to stimulate job creation. This was considered an appropriate means to counterbalance the decrease in economic activity resultant from CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION BY INCOME CLASS (BRL 2005 constant) In the scenarios that consider a global carbon tax, there is also an increase in the average annual household income as a result of the increasing employment rate. The difference in relation to the scenarios that do not consider a carbon tax, is that consumption for Class 3 actually falls slightly in MA2+T, due to the fact that the richest are more affected by the adoption of carbon pricing. CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS INVESTMENT RATE (% GDP) As in the scenarios that do not consider a global carbon tax there is a slight fall in total investment and the investment rate. The reason for this fall is due to the decrease in global and national economic activity due to the carbon tax. CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS TRADE SURPLUS Billion US$ (2005 XXX constant) XXX In contrast the scenarios that did not consider a carbon tax, where the trade surplus fell, in MA1+T the surplus is comparable to that of the CPG. XXX XXX XXX In MA2+T, the trade surplus almost doubles in relation to the CPG. Implementation of a global tax benefits the Brazilian industry on account of its lower carbon footprint, increasing it’s international CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS (MtCO2e) In the scenarios that consider a global carbon tax there is a reduction in emissions when compared to the CPG, and an increase in relation to the other scenarios where GDP is lower. SUMMARY OF THE CONCLUSIONS IT IS POSSIBLE TO GROWN ECONOMICALLY, BETTER SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, AND REDUCE GHG EMISSIONS IN ALL OF THE SCENARIOS CONSIDERED BY THIS STUDY. IES-Brasil: Social Implications Household Income & Purchasing Power Base year (2005=1) GPS MA1 MA1+T MA2 MA2+T Annual Av. Income 1 3.16 3.38 3.29 3.68 3.25 Purchasing Power 1 2.60 2.68 2.64 2.87 2.71 Annual Av. Income 1 2.78 2.98 2.90 3.22 2.85 Purchasing Power 1 2.22 2.27 2.23 2.38 2.25 Annual Av. Income 1 2.04 2.18 2.13 2.35 2.08 Purchasing Power 1 1.62 1.64 1.61 1.66 1.58 Poorest 16% hhs Mid 60% hhs Richest 24% hhs