What Do We Know About
Climate Change in the
Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region?
Climate Change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas:
The State of Current Knowledge
In December 2011, ICIMOD releases the most up-to-date
compilation of information on the current status of climate
change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region. This
thorough review of the existing literature, based on over
360 references, was prepared in consultation with more
than 80 leading experts from the region and abroad.
What is happening in the Himalayas is a good indicator
of climate change globally. This review should therefore
provide inputs to support the discussions that will be
held in conjunction with the United Nations Conference
on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) in June 2012
and in the context of other multilateral environmental
agreements.
Key Findings: Indications of Change
Drawn from Scarce Information
The ruggedness and inaccessibility of the region, combined with
inadequate technical capacity, have rendered measurements difficult.
As a result, rigorous time-series data are often incomplete or lacking,
and the data are often only indicative of change. Critical knowledge
gaps remain to be addressed.
Meteorology and hydrology: Although historical data and
sampling sites are too few, especially at higher elevations, available
studies show a mild warning trend over the past few decades.
Glacier status: Of the more than 54,000 glaciers in the region,
only a few dozen have been observed and documented at close
range. While some are receding and others advancing, a slightly
greater number appears to be receding.
Contribution of meltwater to river flows: The few studies of
river hydrology available and the results of predictive models are
inconclusive regarding trends in river flows.
Species biodiversity: Changes in climate and in the availability
Climate Change in the
Hindu Kush-Himalayas
The State of Current Knowledge
of water could be expected to influence the region’s extremely rich
biodiversity, but with insufficient monitoring of changes in species
ranges and population dynamics, baseline data are not yet available
to trace the possible impacts.
Atmospheric pollutants: The presence of black carbon aerosols in
the atmosphere at high elevations has been confirmed, but the extent
to which they alter circulation and precipitation patterns or accelerate
the melting of ice and snow remains unknown.
Livelihood and human health impacts: Climate change is
expected to interfere with water supplies, facilitate the spread of
infectious diseases, and increase the frequency of natural hazards
and disasters. Model-based predictions suggest that the impacts
on both human life and ecosystems can be both positive and
negative. While anecdotal evidence collected from farmers is scant
and contradictory, farmers in some areas report warmer wintertime
temperatures and erratic weather patterns.
Climate Change in a Sensitive Region
The HKH region, including the eight countries of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan, is
one of the most ecologically sensitive and fragile areas in the world. The effects of climate change will likely become evident here first
and with the greatest impact, since this ecosystem supports the livelihoods of more people than any other coherent ecosystem in the
world. Snow and ice in these mountains feed ten major rivers which provide water not only to the 210 million people who live in the
immediate vicinity, but also to the more than 1 billion people living downstream.
Mitigation
Enhancing mountain
ecosystem resilience
(ecosystem and
landscape management
approaches)
Climate change
Green sector mitigation
(REDD, PES, alternative
energies)
Adaptation to climate
change (ecosystem
services, food security
and livelihoods
of both mountain
and downstream
communities)
Policy fields
(global,
regional and
national)
Filling the knowledge gap and outreach
Climate change
science and
modeling
Biophysical
observation and
research
Socioeconomic
analysis
Policy research
Schematic diagram showing the link between the knowledge gap on climate change science, ecosystem resilience, and
green sector mitigation, and adaptation to climate change for policy outreach and interventions in relevant action fields
A Compilation of Expert Views
To identify and bridge gaps in climate change related knowledge for the HKH, leading experts in climatology, hydrology, environmental
science, and other climate-related fields from across and beyond the region gathered at an Authors’ Workshop in Kathmandu on 18 and
19 August 2011. The workshop presentations and discussions form the backbone of this report, fleshed out with additional literature.
Rigorous review sought to ensure a thorough and relevant report.
Strategies in the face of uncertainty
Policy options for climate resilient development may include
payment for ecosystem services; mitigation measures such as
reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation
(which have an adaptation co-benefit); water storage measures;
and regional cooperation policies for water resources.
This synthesis report is designed to be useful for policy makers
and planners. It summarises what regional experts believe to
be the ‘way forward’ for systematic data acquisition and data
sharing in the areas of biophysical observation, socioeconomic
analysis, and policy research. Filling the existing knowledge and
data gaps will be fundamental for developing climate change
adaptation and mitigation programmes.
To order
Climate Change in the
Hindu Kush-Himalayas:
The State of Current Knowledge
Surender P. Singh, Isabella Bassignana-Khadka,
Bhaskar Singh Karky, and Eklabya Sharma
88 pp
ISBN 978 92 9115 220 9
Climate Change in the
Hindu Kush-Himalayas
Also available in electronic form at
www.icimod.org/publications
The State of Current Knowledge
Contact
Bhaskar Singh Karky [email protected]
Distribution Unit ICIMOD
GPO Box 3226, Kathmandu, Nepal
Tel +977 1 5003222 Fax +977 1 5003299
Email [email protected] Web www.icimod.org
© ICIMOD 2011
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Prepared by ICIMOD Publications Unit, November 2011