Future Satellite Applications and
Services in Brazil and Worldwide
Blaine Curcio
Senior Analyst, NSR
Brasília, Brazil
17 September 2015
www.nsr.com © 2015 – NSR
2º Seminário de Gestão do Espectro: Uma Visão de Futuro
Presentation Agenda
 About NSR
The Market Today: How Much, Where, and What Kind?
Future Markets for Traditional FSS—Video Markets Remain the Key
Revenue Generators
Future Markets for GEO-HTS—Data Applications Leading the Way
Potential Future Markets for Non GEO-HTS—Bigger Pie Due to
Cheaper Slices?
Bottom Line
2nd Annual Seminar on Spectrum Management--Brasilia
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17 September 2015
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2º Seminário de Gestão do Espectro: Uma Visão de Futuro
About NSR
NSR is a Global Leader in Satellite Market Research and Consulting
Founded in 2000, NSR specializes in analysis of growth
opportunities across the satellite industry
Extensive Client Research, Consulting and
Advisory Services
Multi-Client Reports on Various Satellite Topics
NSR’s expert consultants are located globally
and possess over 140 years of combined
industry experience.
www.nsr.com
“Holistic” approach to research enables NSR to anticipate trends with a higher
degree of confidence and precision than the competition and stay ahead of the curve.
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NSR: Global in Reach, Local in Knowledge
NSR features the most global presence of any satellite consulting/research company. With on the
ground regional experience in established and emerging markets, NSR’s multi-cultural and multi-lingual
team provides industry-leading telecom market research and consulting delivering unique, actionable
intelligence.
2nd Annual Seminar on Spectrum Management--Brasilia
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The Market Today
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The Market Today—Where is the Demand?
Traditional FSS Transponder Demand by Region,
2014
Other
13%
SSA
7%
WEU
11%
EA
7%
Source : NSR
SEA
9%
• Highest growth regions remain at around 10% of the
global market each
NAM
16%
SA
7%
CEEU
11%
MENA
10%
SAM
9%
• ~25% of traditional FSS demand from NAM/WEU
• GEO-HTS is over 80% NAM/WEU
• Definite diversification in GEO-HTS markets moving
forward GEO-HTS Gbps Bandwidth Demand by Region,
2014
CEEU
2%
SA
2%
SSA
1%
SAM Other
2%
0%
EA
2%
SEA
6%
MENA
5%
WEU
8%
NAM
74%
Source : NSR
An Evenly Spread Pie for FSS, But GEO-HTS Remains Largely North
American
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The Traditional FSS Market Today—Dominated by Video
Traditional FSS Demand by Application, 2014
0%
0%
Source : NSR
25%
25%
Distribution
Contribution & OUTV
Commercial Mobility
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50%
50%
DTH
Gov/Mil
Broadband Access
75%
75%
100%
100%
Enterprise Data
Telephony & Carrier
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2º Seminário de Gestão do Espectro: Uma Visão de Futuro
The GEO-HTS Market Today
Source: SatCom Post
Source: Thaicom
Source: SatCom Resources
Source: Eutelsat
Source: Avanti
Source: YahSat
Different Offerings in Different Regions—with Different Target Markets
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The Market Tomorrow
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Future Satellite Applications—Where Is Growth At the Highest Level?
• $6.5B in revenue growth across all types of
capacity to 2024
• Over $4B from GEO-HTS and Non GEO-HTS
• But what applications are driving future use?
Revenue Growth by Application to 2024, All
Traditional FSS and HTS Capacity
Distribution
7%
Enterprise Data
12%
Commercial
Mobility
29%
DTH
14%
Source : NSR
2nd Annual Seminar on Spectrum Management--Brasilia
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Gov/Mil
17%
Broadband
Access
20%
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2º Seminário de Gestão do Espectro: Uma Visão de Futuro
Demand Growth in ALL Markets
FSS & GEOHTS Demand
Growth to 2024
CEEU
WEU
NAM
FSS
+ 90 TPEs
HTS
+ 814 Gbps
FSS
+ 220 TPEs
HTS
+ 129 Gbps
CAMCB
FSS
+ 50 TPEs
HTS
+ 25 Gbps
FSS
+ 204 TPEs
HTS
+ 33 Gbps
MENA
FSS
+ 197 TPEs
HTS
+ 52 Gbps
SSA
SAM
EA
FSS
+ 106 TPEs
HTS
+ 28 Gbps
SA
FSS
+ 104 TPEs
HTS
+ 24 Gbps
SEA
FSS
+ 54 TPEs
FSS
+ 102 TPEs
FSS
+ 123 TPEs
HTS
+ 95 Gbps
HTS
+ 38 Gbps
HTS
+ 126 Gbps
 FSS Demand (C, Ku, Ka) spread out fairly evenly
 GEO-HTS demand to see significant demand from NAM, WEU, and SEA
(NBN), but South America will lead all other regions
 Non GEO-HTS not included above
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Commercial Mobility—Aero & Maritime Leading the Way
• Mobility applications to contribute nearly $2B in
new revenues by 2024
• In-flight connectivity has been a huge hit, and the
ceiling is a long way to go
• Crew welfare, asset monitoring, and M2M are
driving maritime, helping contribute strong Cband demand as well as higher frequency bands
Commercial Mobility Global Revenue Growth, 2014-2024
Traditional FSS
Revenues
$620
30%
GEO/Non GEOHTS Revenues
$1,446
70%
Source : NSR
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BYOD: Fueling Mobility SATCOM Revenues
By 2023,
 $5 out of $10 in Retail Mobility Revenues will be from the Maritime Market,
 7 out of 10 In-service Units will be on Land, and
 9 out of 10 Terminals
will be L-band.
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Enterprise Data—VSATs, Backhaul, & Trunking
Enterprise Data Revenue Change by Capacity Type,
2014-2024
$600
US$ Millions
$400
$200
C-band
-$318.1M
Ka-band
$89.8
Ku-band
$247.9
• Total HTS Revenue increase:
$843M
GEO-HTS
$493.9
Non-GEO
$349.2
• Total Traditional FSS Revenue
increase: $18M
$0
-$200
-$400
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1,500
160.0
1,200
In-service Units
• Big opportunities in emerging markets
for VSAT and Backhaul and Trunking,
with Video Offload remaining a
wildcard
Global Video Offload via Satellite Market
120.0
900
80.0
600
40.0
300
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
In-service Units
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Revenues
2024
-
Revenues ($millions)
• Biggest revenue increases to come from
GEO-HTS
• Part EpicNG migration, but largely
new demand
Source: :NSR
NSR
Source
17 September 2015
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2º Seminário de Gestão do Espectro: Uma Visão de Futuro
Gov/Mil—PrideSats Increasing their Presence
• Gov/Mil continues to
be uncertain
• Budget cuts, shorterterm contracts, but
optimism on the
horizon
• Shorter-term
contracts=higher
revenues and higher
per bit pricing
• Evolution of end user
requirements
Country
Project
Timeframe
United States, Denmark,
Netherlands, Australia, and others
WGS—widebeam Ka-band network
of satellites for Gov/Mil use
2007-current
Brazil
SGDC-1—GEO-HTS payload to be
used for military & USO/broadband
purposes
2016--
Japan
2x X-band military payloads
2016--
Italy/France
ATHENA-FIDUS
2014--
Italy
Sicral-1B—payload also leased to
Poland
2009--
Turkey
Göktürk-3
2016--
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DTH Markets—Growth from Multiple Fronts
• Content is king
• UHD to push up revenues in developed regions, and
potentially serve as a differentiator for developing
markets
• Indian growth story is slowing markedly, lots of
inactives and low ARPUs. Does this bode poorly for
other markets?
Source: The Guardian
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Broadband Markets—More than Just North America
• Broadband via Satellite becoming viable in more
regions
• Price remains the biggest stumbling block—not many
developing countries offer sufficient ARPUs for
business cases—this could potentially be removed
with a LEO-HTS constellation targeting broadband,
such as OneWeb, SpaceX Constellation, LeoSat,
etc.
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HTS Business Model Discussion
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2014: Seeing Some Transition
Commercial Mobility - $0.4B
3%
• Cream on Top?
• More than Just Bandwidth?
10 %
23 %
64 %
Government & Military - $1.3B
• “Glory Days” Behind Us?
• More Conflicts = More Revenues?
“Data Services” - $2.9B
• Can You Hear Me Yet?
• Internet for all?
Video - $8.3B
• Watching “the Big Game”?
• More Homes?
2014 Capacity Revenues for FSS & HTS
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From Cream & Sugar – to Bigger Cups & Lattes
$20B
$16B
Capacity Revenues
$13B
12 %
7%
13 %
3%
10 %
23%
64%
2014
10 %
25 %
24 %
59 %
2019
50 %
2024
“Traditional Markets” to Data-Centric Plays
The crème on top is where the new opportunities come from
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GEO & Non GEO-HTS: Establishing New Markets and New Opportunities
“ViaSat and Eutelsat enter first-of-a-kind agreement to
link High Capacity Ka-band Satellite Networks
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Where Will GEO-HTS Revenues be Generated?
Aero
Enterprise
VSAT
Backhaul
Consumer
Broadband
Maritime
Military
Energy
Video?
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HTS and Constellations – Past, Present & Future
System
Iridium
Globalstar
Orbcomm
ICO
Skybridge
Teledesic
O3b
OneWeb
SpaceX
COMMStellation
Ximwei
LeoSat
Laser Light
Orbit Launch Date Years to Launch Satellites Bit Rate Throughput (Gbps)
LEO
1991
2.5-3**
72+
Low
N/A
LEO
1991
2.5-3**
52+
Low
N/A
LEO
1993
3***
30+
Low
N/A
MEO
1995
2
10+
Low
N/A
LEO
1998
N/A
80+
High
N/A
LEO
1990s
N/A
280+
High
N/A
MEO
2007
2
12-20
High
80-360
LEO
2018-19
3**
640-2,400 High
6,000
LEO
2019-20
3**
4,000+
High
8,000+?
LEO
2015?
2-3**
75+
High?
N/A
LEO
2019?
N/A
30+
High?
N/A
LEO 2018-2019
2-3**
80-120
High?
1,000-2,000
MEO
2018
N/A
8
High?
N/A
Services
Telephony, Data
Telephony, Data
Data
Telephony, Data
Data
Data
Data, Backhaul
Data, Backhaul
Data, Backhaul
Data
Data, Voice?
Data
•
Even one constellation needs more launcher capability than is available right now
•
Any constellations will result in “Bubble for Backhaul" more than other user segments
•
Will the “Iridium of Broadband” follow its predecessor
2nd Annual Seminar on Spectrum Management--Brasilia
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Non GEO-HTS Market Assessment—2019 as an Inflection Point
• Pricing to be negatively impacted
by 2019 supply glut—particularly
in Enterprise Data
Global Revenues for Leased Non-GEO-HTS Bandwidth by
Application
US$ Millions
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
2014
Distribution
Enterprise Data
2015
2016
2017
2018
DTH
Broadband Access
2019
2020
2021
Contribution & OUTV
Commercial Mobility
2022
2023
2024
Telephony & Carrier
Gov/Mil
• Non GEO-HTS to target
broadband specifically, and to
generate around $500M of
revenues by 2024
• “If you build it, they will come”, but
is it a profitable business case?
2nd Annual Seminar on Spectrum Management--Brasilia
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GEO-HTS – Cannibalization or Growing the Pie?
IPSTAR is taking a larger share…..
….of a
bigger pie
Thaicom Revenues, 2006-2014
$300
USD Millions
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
2006
2007
Source : NSR
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2008
2009
2010
Traditional FSS Revenue
2011
2012
2013
2014
IPSTAR Revenue
17 September 2015
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Bottom Line
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2º Seminário de Gestão do Espectro: Uma Visão de Futuro
Bottom Line
• GEO-HTS will provide the best opportunities to create new markets moving
forward, frequency reuse unlocks new markets through increased bandwidth
efficiency.
• Traditional FSS to see demand increase incrementally in some areas, though
overall much more limited opportunities
• O3b business case continues to pick up steam, with entry of a potential LEO-HTS
constellation looming in the medium-term
• Overall, around $6.5 billion in new revenue by 2024, for a CAGR of around 3.5%.
2nd Annual Seminar on Spectrum Management--Brasilia
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17 September 2015
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Questions?
September 17, 2015
Blaine Curcio, Senior Analyst
www.nsr.com © 2015 – NSR
Contact NSR
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Online
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