“Advancing human security through knowledge-based
approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks“
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment and
Human Security
(UNU-EHS)
Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
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Encontro Internacional de Direito
Ambiental na Amazônia
Environmental Degradation, Climate Change,
Conflicts and Migration
Fabrice Renaud
Associate Director
UNU-EHS
Bonn, Germany
Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
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Global Environmental Change and
Human Security
Global Environmental
Change
Adapted from concepts of UNDP, 1991 and Kofi Annan
Economic
Community
Food
Political
Health
Personal
Environmental
Sustainable Human Development
Freedom from Want
Freedom from Fear
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Environmental change, climate change
and conflicts
(1)Brown
et al (2007): Climate change as the ‘new’ security threat: implications for Africa. International Affairs 83:1141-54
Climate related conflicts in West Africa. ECSP Report, Issue No 12.
(2)Nyong:
 Climate change is increasingly discussed in relation to international
conflicts and security in general(1)
 For example, in the West-African Sahel(2):
•
Droughts linked to climate variability increase the vulnerability of
communities and conflicts
•
Migration of pastoralists from the North towards southern regions occupied
by sedentary farmers generated some conflicts. But reverse trends also
exists whereby farmers from the South move towards the North because of
land degradation processes.
 However, straightforward causality effects are generally rare as many
other factors come into play: economic, social, political and cultural (re.
the discussions surrounding the Darfur conflict or “water wars”)
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Current & potential effects of climate
change in Latin America
Magrin et al. (2007): Fourth IPCC Report
 Climatic variability and extreme events are severely affecting the Latin America
region over recent years (including Amazon drought in 2005)
 During the last decades important changes in precipitation and increases in
temperature have been observed
 Land-use changes have intensified the use of natural resources and exacerbated
many of the processes of land degradation:
•
Three quarters of the drylands are affected by degradation processes
•
Decrease in natural land cover through climatic and man-made impacts
 Under future climate change, there is a risk of significant species extinctions in
many areas of tropical Latin America:
•
Replacement of tropical forest by savannas is expected in eastern Amazonia
•
Replacement of semi-arid vegetation by arid vegetation in parts of north-east Brazil
 The expected increases in sea-level rise, weather and climatic variability and
extremes are very likely to affect coastal areas
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Likelihood that future summer average
temperatures exceed highest summer
temperatures observed on record
Battisti et Naylor (2009): Historical warnings of future food insecurtiy with unprecedented historical heat. Science 323: 240-244
2040-2060
2080-2100
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Human security, vulnerability and
climate change
(1)Barnett
& Adger (2007): Climate change, human security and violent conflicts. Political Geography 36:639-655
 Vulnerability of people and communities with respect to
climate change depends on(1):
•
Their dependence with respect to ecosystem services
•
The impact of climate change on these ecosystems
•
Adaptation capacities of the communities
 Capacity to adapt reduces vulnerability:
•
Societies adapt constantly
•
However, what are their limits when considering climate change?
•
Migration is a type of adaptation
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Environmental migration: estimates
 Some estimates on environmental migration:
•
24 millions (UNHCR 2002)
•
2010: 50 millions (Myers 2005)
•
2050: 200 millions most often quoted (Stern 2006, IOM 2008)
•
After 2050: up to 700 millions (Christian Aid 2007)
 Hundreds of millions (Stern, 2009) leading to conflicts
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UNHCR and environmental migration
Guterres (2008): Climate change, natural disasters and human displacement: a UNHCR perspective
 In terms of international governance there is a distinction
between international and cross border displacements:
•
Existing legal frameworks already consider internal displacements
•
However some cross-border displacements are not covered by any
legal framework
 Displacement scenarios considered:
•
Hydro-meteorological disasters;
•
Zones designated by governments as being too high-risk;
•
Environmental degradation and slow onset disasters;
•
“Sinking” small island states; and
•
Armed conflicts triggered by a decrease in essential resources.
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Proposed categories
 Environmental Emergency Migrants (as opposed to Environmental
Refugees):
•
People who flee the worst of an environmental impact on a permanent
or temporary basis. They have to take refuge to save their lives
 Environmentally Forced Migrants:
•
People who “have to leave” to avoid the worst of environmental
degradation. The urgency of flight is less
 Environmentally Motivated Migrants:
•
People who “may leave” a steadily deteriorating environment to preempt the worst
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Preliminary definition framework
Rapid Onset Hazards
(e.g. Floods, Earthquakes)
ENVIRONMENTAL
EVENT
Land/home destroyed,
lost and/or unsafe
Action of fleeing to
save one’s life
Accelerated degradation
of ecosystems
e.g. pollution events,
rapid soil erosion
Migrant does not
return to
impacted area
Migrant does not
return to
impacted area
ENVIRONMENTALLY ENVIRONMENTALLY
MOTIVATED
FORCED
MIGRANT
MIGRANT
Rapid onset hazards
Person migrates away
from impacted area
Environmental
reason for migration Environmental reason
decision dominant e.g. for migration decision
reoccurring droughts,
not dominant
sea-level rise
Slow onset hazards &
Loss of ecosystem services
Slow and ineffective
social, economic and
physical recovery
of impacted areas
Gradual degradation
of ecosystems
e.g. land degradation,
loss of biodiversity,
sea-level rise
Livelihoods Impacted
ENVIRONMENTAL
EMERGENCY
MIGRANT
Rapid and effective
social, economic and
physical recovery
of impacted areas
Loss of Ecosystem
Services and
Slow Onset Hazards
Alternative livelihood
was possible in
impacted area
Alternative livelihood
was possible in impacted
area but required
significant time
No alternative
livelihood was
possible in impacted area
Impacted area no
longer exists
NOT AN
ENVIRONMENTAL
MIGRANT
ENVIRONMENTALLY
MOTIVATED
MIGRANT
ENVIRONMENTALLY
FORCED
MIGRANT
Internacional
Direito Ambiental
na Amazônia,
Macapá,
4-6 March
2009 to
Renaud etEncontro
al. (2009):
A Decisionde
Framework
for Environmentally
Induced
Migration.
Submitted
International Migration Journal
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Loss of Ecosystem
Services and
Slow Onset Hazards
Accelerated degradation
of ecosystems
e.g. pollution events,
rapid soil erosion
Gradual degradation
of ecosystems
e.g. land degradation,
loss of biodiversity,
sea-level rise
Livelihoods Impacted
Person migrates away
from impacted area
Environmental
reason for migration
decision dominant e.g.
reoccurring droughts,
sea-level rise
Environmental reason
for migration decision
not dominant
Alternative livelihood
was possible in
impacted area
Alternative livelihood
was possible in impacted
area but required
significant time
No alternative
livelihood was
possible in impacted area
Impacted area no
longer exists
NOT AN
ENVIRONMENTAL
MIGRANT
ENVIRONMENTALLY
MOTIVATED
MIGRANT
ENVIRONMENTALLY
FORCED
MIGRANT
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Figure f. Maps indicating number of people affected (and potentially displaced) under a 1 metre sea-level rise scenario based on current socio-economic and
environmental conditions in Viet Nam (Source: Carew-Reid 2007, pp27-28 (modified))
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Amazon Delta
1 m Sea level
rise
Source: CRESIS - http://www.cresis.ku.edu/research/data/sea_level_rise/index.html
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The five-pronged approach:
a call for simultaneous actions
 Science:
•
•
Better understanding between the cause-effects mechanisms (including
other push/pull factors)
‐
Who migrates, where and when?
‐
For creeping processes, identification of crisis tipping points (thresholds)
Quantification of migration responses to the impact of environmental
degradation
‐
•
•
Rapid onset vs. “creeping” processes
Scenarios and policies
‐
Link migration to adaptation strategies & to environmental and climate change
‐
Long term effects of resettlements
Cooperation between all stakeholders
Source: Renaud, Bogardi, Dun, Warner (2007): Intersction No 5, UNU-EHS
Bogardi, Warner (2008): Here comes the flood. Nature 3:9-11
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The five-pronged approach (cont’d)
 Awareness:
•
Raise knowledge-based public and political awareness and its social,
economic, environmental dimensions
•
Rectify the “Northern” bias
•
Concept needs to be included in outcome of Copenhagen summit, UNCCD,
IPCC
 Legislation:
•
Establish and implement a framework that recognises environmental
migrants to protect adequately individuals displaced by environmental
degradation processes
 Humanitarian aid:
•
Empower the United Nations system and humanitarian organizations to
provide aid to environmental migrants
 Institutional:
•
Establish institutions that are able to assist the flux of environmental
migrants
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Conclusions
 Links between global environmental change, human security,
migration and/or conflict can be real but:
•
They are not always systematic
•
There is a need for more research in order to establish the multiple
causality factors
 Governance plays a crucial role:
•
Limit causes of conflicts which are often multiple
•
Allow space for traditional conflict resolution mechanisms
•
Facilitate adaptation to environmental change and climate change
 This can only be achieved through a multi-stakeholder
concerted approach (including in the Amazon basin)
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Thank You
Merci
Obrigado
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment and Human Security
(UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
D-53113 Bonn, Germany
Phone: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0200
Fax:
++ 49 (0) 228 815-0299
E-Mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
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