INTEGRATION OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND POLICY TO MANAGE FOREST AND WATER RESOURCES AROUND THE ATIBAINHA RESERVOIR IN BRAZIL By Eduardo Humberto Ditt A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy for the University of London Centre for Environmental Policy Imperial College London January 2008 ABSTRACT Remnants of Atlantic Forest occupy approximately 50% of the catchments around the lake of Atibainha, which is one of the most important reservoirs of water for human consumption in south-eastern Brazil. Degradation of these forests has been resulting in severe decline in ecosystem services. Innovative conservation mechanisms are necessary to reverse these tendencies of forest degradation. The current research contributes to the development of such mechanisms. It starts with a description of local conditions and policies to protect the environment in the region. Analyses of land use reveal that the legislation to protect the forests is only partially respected. These analyses are followed by physical estimates of some ecosystem services from various land use scenarios, composed of native forests, eucalyptus, pastures, and residences, to reveal the potential impacts of land use change on human welfare. The total economic value of the various land uses is calculated through both the application of methods of economic valuation of ecosystem services, and the estimation of farmers’ profits from the current productive systems. A geographic information system is used to produce economic value maps of ecosystem services which, along with other information, are used to discuss the influence of the main land users in the region on the maintenance of ecosystem services. Results suggest that land use decisions aimed towards the conversion of native forests in the region have been substantially influenced by the potential direct benefits provided by productive systems such as eucalyptus production and cattle ranching; despite the fact that the provision of ecosystem services in natural forests has a much higher value. This thesis proposes a market mechanism that captures the values of ecosystem services through a system of payments for these services which could influence land use decisions towards the conservation of natural forests. 2 DECLARATION I declare that this thesis comprises only my original work unless otherwise stated in the text. None of this work has been submitted for any other qualification at any other university. Eduardo H. Ditt January 2008 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my sincere appreciation to the people who contributed to my PhD study. My gratitude goes to: For the great support and supervision: Jon Knight and Susana Mourato. For the great supervision at the initial stage of the study: Jaboury Ghazoul. For funding the research: WFN - Whitley Fund for Nature; Russel E. Train Education for Nature Program/WWF; IFS - International Foundation for Science; Overseas Research Scheme; USAID - United States Agency for International Development. For the institutional support: IPÊ – Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas, IEB – Instituto Internacional de Educação do Brasil, Lead International, and Imperial College London. For the encouragement with wisdom: Claudio Padua and Suzana Padua. For the friendship, motivation and dream: all members and friends of IPÊ. For the friendly working environment: users of room 101 in Manor House (Silwood Park), room 307 in Mech. Eng. Building (South Kensington), and my colleagues at IPÊ. For the friendship and crucial contribution in all stages of field research: Rafael Ruas and Mariana Figueiredo. For the work in data collection: Camila Toledo, Fernanda Rosseto, Humberto Malheiros, Fernanda Zimbres and colleagues from IPÊ. 4 For the collaboration in the provision of data: farmers and owners of hotels who were interviewed. For the technical contribution: Paulo de Marco, John Mumford, Julian Evans, Pedro Pedro, Paulo Henrique Cardoso Peixoto, Luis Henrique Chaves, Jose Furtado, Simone Ranieri, Joseline Filippe, Gerd Sparovek. For the best examples of union and collaboration: my family. Finally and most importantly, for the patience, comprehension, unfailing love, continuous support, and for taking care of me: my beloved wife, Patrícia! 5 CONTENTS ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................... 2 DECLARATION ............................................................................................................ 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................... 4 CONTENTS .................................................................................................................... 6 LIST OF TABLES........................................................................................................ 11 LIST OF FIGURES...................................................................................................... 13 LIST OF ACRONYMS ................................................................................................ 15 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................... 17 1.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 17 1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT................................................................................... 19 1.2.1 Land use decisions and the provision of individual and social benefits........ 19 1.2.2 Land use policies and the provision of ecosystem services........................... 19 1.3 AIM AND OBJECTIVES .................................................................................... 20 1.3.1 To evaluate the contribution of existing legislation to the provision of ecosystem services.................................................................................................. 20 1.3.2 To assess the provision of ecosystem services in various land uses ............. 20 1.3.3 To estimate economic value of land uses ...................................................... 20 1.3.4 To characterize land users and their roles as providers and beneficiaries of ecosystem services.................................................................................................. 20 1.3.5 To propose land use guidelines and mechanisms for the provision of ecosystem services.................................................................................................. 21 1.4 THESIS STRUCTURE ........................................................................................ 22 1.5 CONTRIBUTION TO KNOWLEDGE ............................................................... 24 1.5.1 Information and new data .............................................................................. 24 1.5.2 Methods ......................................................................................................... 24 1.5.3 Policies .......................................................................................................... 24 1.6 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................... 26 6 Chapter 2: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE INTERVENTIONS IN THE ATLANTIC FOREST LANDSCAPE AROUND THE ATIBAINHA RESERVOIR, SOUTH-EASTERN BRAZIL...................................................................................... 29 2.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 29 2.2 THE ATLANTIC FOREST AROUND THE ATIBAINHA RESERVOIR ........ 31 2.3 THE CANTAREIRA SYSTEM........................................................................... 33 2.4 LEGAL RULES OF CONSERVATION ............................................................. 34 2.4.1 Protected Areas.............................................................................................. 34 2.4.2 Forests............................................................................................................ 34 2.4.3 Water ............................................................................................................. 35 2.5 PARTITIONING LANDSCAPE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING AT A LOCAL SCALE ......................................................................................................... 40 2.5.1 Catchment delineation ................................................................................... 40 2.5.2 Mapping land uses ......................................................................................... 42 2.5.3 Land users and conservation of forest and water resources .......................... 42 2.6 OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOUND INTERVENTIONS IN THE LANDSCAPE: CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................ 44 2.7 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................... 46 Chapter 3: DEFYING LEGAL PROTECTION OF ATLANTIC FOREST IN THE TRANSFORMING LANDSCAPE AROUND THE ATIBAINHA RESERVOIR, SOUTH-EASTERN BRAZIL ..................................................................................... 50 3.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 50 3.2 METHODS........................................................................................................... 53 3.2.1 Study area ...................................................................................................... 53 3.2.2 Mapping forests, streams, reservoir and catchments..................................... 54 3.2.3 Delineation of Permanent Preservation Areas of the Forest Code ................ 54 3.2.4 Delineation of areas targeted by Decree of Law 750 and by Atlantic Forest law .......................................................................................................................... 55 3.2.5 Delineation of scenarios of legal vulnerability.............................................. 56 3.3 RESULTS............................................................................................................. 57 3.3.1 Permanent Preservation Areas....................................................................... 57 3.3.2 Areas protected by legislation according to stage of regeneration................ 59 3.3.3 Current legal vulnerability to deforestation................................................... 59 3.4 DISCUSSION....................................................................................................... 61 3.5 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................... 65 3.6 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................... 66 7 Chapter 4: LAND USE CHANGE AND AVAILABILITY OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN THE BRAZILIAN ATLANTIC FOREST ...................................... 69 4.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 69 4.1.1 Carbon stocks in forest ecosystems and mitigation of climate change ......... 70 4.1.2 Preventing sedimentation of the Atibainha reservoir .................................... 70 4.1.3 Purification of water ...................................................................................... 71 4.1.4 Maintenance of soil fertility .......................................................................... 72 4.2 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................... 74 4.2.1 Study area ...................................................................................................... 74 4.2.2 Mapping ecosystem services and scenario analysis ...................................... 74 4.2.3 Estimation of carbon stocks........................................................................... 75 4.2.4 Estimation of sediment delivery.................................................................... 76 4.2.5. Assessment of water quality ......................................................................... 79 4.2.6 Assessment of variations in soil fertility ....................................................... 79 4.3 RESULTS............................................................................................................. 81 4.3.1 Land use and carbon stocks ........................................................................... 81 4.3.2 Land use and sediment delivery in the reservoir ........................................... 82 4.3.3 Land use and quality of water........................................................................ 83 4.3.4 Soil fertility.................................................................................................... 84 4.4 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION .................................................................. 87 4.5 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................... 90 Chapter 5: ECONOMIC VALUE MAPS OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES: INNOVATIVE TOOLS FOR PLANNING INTERVENTIONS IN THE BRAZILIAN ATLANTIC FOREST .......................................................................... 95 5.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 95 5.2 THE STUDY AREA ............................................................................................ 97 5.3 VALUES OF LAND USES AROUND THE ATIBAINHA RESERVOIR ........ 98 5.3.1 Total economic value (TEV) of ecosystem services ..................................... 98 5.3.2 Scenic beauty................................................................................................. 99 5.3.3 Forestry production ..................................................................................... 100 5.3.4 Pastures........................................................................................................ 100 5.3.5 Mitigation of climate change....................................................................... 101 5.3.6 Protection of soil and water ......................................................................... 102 5.3.7. Maintenance of soil fertility ....................................................................... 102 5.3.8 Pharmaceutical uses..................................................................................... 103 5.3.9 Sources of seeds for forest restoration......................................................... 103 5.3.10 Conservation of biodiversity ..................................................................... 104 5.4 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................. 105 5.4.1 Mapping ecosystem services ....................................................................... 105 5.4.2 Assigning economic values to carbon storage............................................. 106 5.4.3. Assigning economic values to prevention of sediment delivery in the water reservoir ................................................................................................................ 106 5.4.4 Assigning economic values to the maintenance of soil fertility.................. 107 5.4.5 Assigning economic values to provision of recreation and tourism............ 107 8 5.4.6 Assigning economic values to benefits obtained from eucalyptus and pasture .............................................................................................................................. 110 5.4.7 Transferring benefits ................................................................................... 111 5.4.8 Valuing ecosystem services in areas legally designated for conservation .. 111 5.5 RESULTS........................................................................................................... 113 5.5.1 Economic values of carbon storage ............................................................. 113 5.5.2 Economic values of protection of soil and water ........................................ 113 5.5.3 Economic values of maintenance of soil fertility ........................................ 114 5.5.4 Economic values of provision of recreation and tourism ............................ 115 5.5.5 Economic value of forestry production ....................................................... 117 5.5.6 Economic value of pasture .......................................................................... 118 5.5.7 Option and non-use values .......................................................................... 119 5.5.8 Total economic value and analysis of alternative scenarios........................ 119 5.5.9 Costs and benefits of law enforcement........................................................ 121 5.6 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION ................................................................ 123 5.7 REFERENCES ................................................................................................... 129 Chapter 6: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR PROPOSING MECHANISMS OF PAYMENTS FOR ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN THE BRAZILIAN ATLANTIC FOREST ........................................................................ 136 6.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 136 6.2 PIONEERING INITIATIVES OF PES.............................................................. 139 6.3 PES INITIATIVES IN BRAZIL ........................................................................ 142 6.4 ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND LAND USES FOR THE PROPOSED PES . 146 6.4.1 Social and private benefits of land uses....................................................... 146 6.4.2 Possible eligible ecosystem services ........................................................... 147 6.4.3 Possible eligible activities ........................................................................... 147 6.5 LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PES .......................... 149 6.6 POTENTIAL PROVIDERS OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ............................ 152 6.7 POTENTIAL BUYERS OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES................................... 153 6.7.1 Philanthropic buyers .................................................................................... 153 6.7.2 Private buyers .............................................................................................. 153 6.7.3 International Community............................................................................. 154 6.7.4 Public sector buyer ...................................................................................... 154 6.8 INSTITUTIONAL SET-UP ............................................................................... 155 6.9 CERTIFICATION OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ........................................... 156 6.10 SUGGESTED STRUCTURE OF PES............................................................. 159 6.11 CHALLENGES FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF PES .................................... 162 6.12 CONCLUSIONS .............................................................................................. 165 6.13 REFERENCES ................................................................................................. 167 9 Chapter 7: DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION .................................................... 172 7.1 PURPOSE OF THE THESIS ............................................................................. 172 7.2 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS.............................................................................. 174 7.2.1 Analysis of landscape referenced by watersheds ........................................ 174 7.2.2 Law enforcement and policy opportunities ................................................. 174 7.2.3 Physical estimates of ecosystem services having indirect use values ......... 174 7.2.4 Mapping economic values of ecosystem services ....................................... 175 7.2.5 Proposal of PES mechanism........................................................................ 176 7.3 STRENGTHS, LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH ......................... 177 7.4 APPLICABILITY BEYOND THE STUDY AREA.......................................... 179 7.4.1 Ecosystem services analysis framework...................................................... 179 7.4.2 Analysis of land use policies ....................................................................... 181 7.4.3 Ecosystem services assessments.................................................................. 182 7.4.4 Valuing ecosystem services......................................................................... 183 7.4.5 PES mechanisms ......................................................................................... 185 7.5 IMPLICATIONS OF FINDINGS ...................................................................... 187 7.5.1 Stakeholders awareness of failures in the observance of legislation........... 187 7.5.2 Costs of disrespecting the law ..................................................................... 187 7.5.3 Preliminary projects relating to carbon storage........................................... 187 7.5.4 Development of PES schemes..................................................................... 188 7.6 REFERENCES ................................................................................................... 189 10 LIST OF TABLES Chapter 1 Table 1.1 Thesis structure........................................................................................... 22 Chapter 2 Table 2.1 Objectives of the National Policy of Water Resources (NPWR) and the National System of Management of Water Resources (NSMWR) ............................ 36 Table 2.2 Instruments of the National Policy of Water Resources with their respective applicability. ............................................................................................................... 37 Table 2.3 Institutions that compose the National System of Management of Water Resources, and their respective tasks according to the federal laws 9433/1997 and 9984/2000. .................................................................................................................. 38 Table 2.4 Themes of “Continuous Duration Programs” (CDP) determined by the National Council of Water Resources (CNRH, 2005c). ............................................. 39 Chapter 3 Table 3.1. Criteria based on height and diameter of trees determined by official rules of the State and Federal governments to classify the stage of forest regeneration as “Advanced”, “Medium”, “Initial”, and “Pioneer”...................................................... 55 Table 3.2 Pairwise post hoc comparisons (Tukey Test) among restrictions to deforestation within PPAs .......................................................................................... 58 Table 3.3. Mean diameters and heights of trees for forests F1 and F2....................... 59 Table 3.4 Total area of forested and non forested lands outside PPAs or fitting different combinations of PPA land use restrictions. ................................................. 60 Chapter 4 Table 4.1 Land use scenarios considered in the quantification of ecosystem services .................................................................................................................................... 75 Table 4.2 Values of cover management factor and support practice factor ............... 79 Table 4.3 Carbon stocks in the main land uses around the Atibainha reservoir......... 82 Table 4.6 Significant correlations between land use and water chemistry in buffer zones of 30m, 100m, and 200m around streams. ....................................................... 84 Table 4.7 Results of analysis of variance for comparing soil fertility in different land uses at different sampling depths................................................................................ 85 Table 4.8 Results of post hoc analysis performed with Scheffé test for revealing influence of land use on the content of organic matter............................................... 86 11 Chapter 5 Table 5.1. Economic values and land uses around the Atibainha reservoir ............... 99 Table 5.2 Capacity of water storage in the reservoirs of the Cantareira System (Source: Braga, 2004)............................................................................................... 107 Table 5.3 Number of visits and travel cost per visitor from five distance zones in the State of São Paulo..................................................................................................... 110 Table 5.4 Results of regression analysis with travel cost per visit as the independent variable and number of visits per 100,000 people as the dependent variable. ......... 116 Table 5.5 Average values of data collected in interviews with producers of eucalyptus. ................................................................................................................ 118 Table 5.6. Average values of data collected in interviews with cattle ranchers....... 118 Table 5.7 Total economic values of current land uses around the Atibainha reservoir per year. .................................................................................................................... 121 Table 5.8 Values of ecosystem services in “Permanent Preservation Areas” (PPA) in various land use scenarios ........................................................................................ 122 Table 5.9 Individual contributions for the average TEV of ecosystem services ...... 123 Chapter 6 Table 6.1 Total economic values obtained in scenarios of pasture, eucalyptus and native forest, and respective beneficiaries (values per year). ................................... 146 Table 6.2 Suggested principles, criteria and indicators for the development of a system of certification of ecosystem services........................................................... 158 Chapter 7 Table 7.1 Strengths and limitations of the current research ..................................... 178 12 LIST OF FIGURES Chapter 1 Figure 1.1 Study area: lands around the Atibainha reservoir, eastern São Paulo State, Brazil .......................................................................................................................... 17 Chapter 2 Figure 2.1 Maps of reservoirs in the Cantareira System, State of São Paulo, and original distribution of Atlantic Forest in Brazil. ....................................................... 32 Figure 2.2 Delineation of catchments for a fine scale analysis of landscape around the Atibainha reservoir. .................................................................................................... 41 Figure 2.3. Land uses and land users around the Atibainha reservoir........................ 45 Chapter 3 Figure 3.1 Study area, composed by catchments that surround the Atibainha reservoir in eastern São Paulo State........................................................................................... 53 Figure 3.2 Deforested PPAs on margins of streams, margins of rivers and hilly slopes. .................................................................................................................................... 57 Figure 3.3 Mean proportion of forest cover in each category of legal restriction for deforestation.. ............................................................................................................. 58 Chapter 4 Figure 4.1 Above ground stocks of carbon in trees per unit of area, estimated for each of the main land uses in the study area. ...................................................................... 81 Figure 4.2 Classification of the catchments according to the average prevention of sediment delivery in the reservoir per unit of area (t/ha). .......................................... 83 Figure 4.3 Mean contents of organic matter in soils occupied by native forests or other uses. ................................................................................................................... 86 Chapter 5 Figure 5.1 Classification of municipalities of the State of São Paulo according to their distances from Nazaré Paulista................................................................................. 109 Figure 5.2 Economic value map of carbon storage in the current land uses. ........... 113 Figure 5.3 Economic value map of prevention of sedimentation in the current land uses. .......................................................................................................................... 114 Figure 5.4 Economic value map of maintenance of soil fertility in the current land uses. .......................................................................................................................... 115 Figure 5.5 Zonal travel cost demand graph .............................................................. 116 Figure 5.6 Economic value map of direct use values (tourism/recreation, production of eucalyptus, and cattle ranching in pastures) in the current land uses................... 117 13 Figure 5.7 Economic value map of option and non use values in the current land uses. .................................................................................................................................. 119 Figure 5.8 Classes of total economic values of the current land uses around the Atibainha reservoir, expressed in U$/hectare/year................................................... 120 Chapter 6 Figure 6.1 Geographic interpretation of forest laws, ownership of the water company and forest cover. ....................................................................................................... 151 Figure 6.2. Flowchart of the suggested system of payments for ecosystem services164 14 LIST OF ACRONYMS AGB Above ground biomass ANOVA Analysis of variance B Boron (chemical element) BEF Biomass expansion factor C Carbon (chemical element) CO2 Carbon dioxide Ca Calcium (chemical element) CDM Clean Development Mechanism CDP Continuous duration programs CEC Cation exchange capacity Cu Copper (chemical element) DBH Diametre at breast height DEM Digital elevation model EPA Environmental protected area F1 Designation to young native forests F2 Designation to old native forests FEHIDRO State Fund of Water Resources FRCSA Fund for payments of costs of environmental services FSC Forest Stewardship Council GEF Global Environmental Facility GIS Geographic Information System K Potassium (chemical element) Kg Kilogram Km Kilometre LR Legal Reserve MUSLE Modified universal soil loss equation NCWR National Council of Water Resources N-NH3 Ammonium NO2-N Nitrite NO3 Nitrate NPWR National Policy of Water Resources NSMWR National System of Management of Water Resources 15 PCA Principal component analysis PCJ Rivers “Piracicaba, Capivari, and Jundiaí” PES Payment for ecosystem services PO4 Phosphate PPA Permanent Preservation Area SABESP Water company in São Paulo TAC Compliance associated to impacts on environment (“Termo de ajuste de conduta”) TC Travel cost TEV Total economic value USLE Universal soil loss equation WTP Willingness to pay 16 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction The Atlantic Forest is one of the most threatened biomes in the world. Historically it covered more than 1 million square kilometres of land in Brazil, but today is reduced to less than 8% of its original distribution (Myers et al., 2000; Morellato & Haddad, 2000). Within its domains is one of the largest continuous urban areas in the world: the metropolitan region of São Paulo, with more than 19 million residents. More than 50% of the human consumption of water in the region is provided by the Cantareira System, which is formed by 6 inter-connected lakes (Whately & Cunha, 2007). The focus of this research is an area of 9,000 hectares around one of these lakes: the Atibainha Reservoir (Figure 1.1), which is located 90 km from the city of São Paulo. A state-controlled water company owns 20% of these lands, whereas the remaining 80% are privately owned. Current land cover is mostly native forests, pastures, plantations of eucalyptus and urban areas (Fadini & Carvalho, 2004). Figure 1.1 Study area: lands around the Atibainha reservoir, eastern São Paulo State, Brazil The use of land around the Atibainha reservoir has been progressively changing over time due to loss of native forest, expansion of urban areas and productive systems such as plantations of eucalyptus. Reasons include lack of economic alternatives and increased urbanization due to the demand for second homes for people from nearby large towns (Hoeffel et al., 2006). 17 A serious consequence of these land-use changes is the decline in benefits that people obtain from the local ecosystems, such as climate regulation, conservation of soil and water, and tourism. These benefits are known as ecosystem services (Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, 2000; Costanza, 1997; Daily, 1997). A major obstacle for preventing losses of ecosystem services is that their value is not fully recognized by policy makers (Guo et al., 2001). In this respect, uncovering the economic value of the services provided by ecosystems would be instrumental in altering decisions about use and management of natural resources and ecosystems (Pearce and Moran, 1994). There are some obstacles for uncovering these values, such as the lack of market and prices for ecosystem services. However, overcoming these difficulties has become increasingly possible due to advances in economic valuation techniques (Motta, 1997). Knowledge of the value of ecosystem services can be applied in conservation of forests through mechanisms of payments for ecosystem services (PES). In 1997, Costa Rica initiated a pioneering experiment in the development of PES mechanisms for the maintenance of land uses that favour the provision of ecosystem services (Kosoy et al., 2007; Rosa et al., 2004; Furtado et al., 1999). The principle of the scheme of payments for ecosystem services (PES) is that land users who provide ecosystem services must be compensated and the beneficiaries of these services must pay for their provision. The development of such schemes has been stimulated by the increasing belief in the effectiveness of market-based mechanisms for conservation. The experiences in Costa Rica have inspired the development of similar schemes in other Latin American countries (Pagiola et al., 2005). Currently, a number of PES initiatives already exist in Brasil. They consist of forest conservation and restoration projects with the purpose of reducing the concentration of atmospheric CO2 (Yu, 2004), as well as policy initiatives that include the creation of laws to facilitate the implementation of PES schemes (Amazonas, 2007; Mattos et al., 2001; Extrema, 2005). The serious losses of ecosystem services associated to land use changes around the Atibainha reservoir can potentially be minimised through the development of new and existing PES initiatives. However, the development and improvement of such initiatives depend crucially on gathering more information on ecosystem services, their values and policies. These are the aims of the studies that compose this thesis. 18 1.2 Problem statement 1.2.1 Land use decisions and the provision of individual and social benefits Land use decisions towards conversion of forests for other land uses such as eucalyptus, pasture or urban areas can result in substantial decline in the provision of ecosystem services in the lands around the Atibainha reservoir. Some of these services can potentially have a high social importance. A key reason that some land users decide to convert forests is that often the individual benefits obtained from development (i.e. cattle ranching and eucalyptus plantations) outweigh the values of ecosystem services associated with conservation. Furthermore, the costs of forest conservation are normally paid by single land users, such as farmers, whereas the benefits are normally shared among third parties. Thus, the unfair distribution among the population of the gains and losses associated with land use changes is a major threat to the provision of social ecosystem services. In order to design policies to address this problem, it is necessary to both analyze the interests and incentives of the main land users and estimate the provision of ecosystem services that can be expected from each land use. These analyses also require measuring the individual and social economic values that are associated with various land uses. 1.2.2 Land use policies and the provision of ecosystem services The development and implementation of effective land use policies is crucial for avoiding severe loss of ecosystem services in rapidly-transforming landscapes. Conventional policies and mechanisms of command-and-control, based on legislation to regulate land use, are important but not always sufficient. Land uses around the Atibainha reservoir are primarily regulated by two federal laws. One was created to prevent clearing remnants of Atlantic Forest (Brasil, 2006). The other is meant to ensure the maintenance of forest on the margins of water bodies, steep slopes, mountain-tops, and in 20% of the area of every rural property (Brasil, 1965). These laws have not been fully respected (Ditt et al., 2006). Losses of ecosystem services due to non-observance of these laws can be prevented through the development of complementary land use strategies. Mechanisms of payments for ecosystem services (PES) are some possible strategies. These mechanisms depend on understanding observance of current laws and promoting land uses that favour the provision of ecosystem services. 19 1.3 Aim and objectives The aim of this thesis is to improve the knowledge of the magnitude and the value of ecosystem services in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, specifically in the region of lake Atibainha, and to contribute to the development of land use strategies that favour the provision of ecosystem services in the study area such as PES schemes. The main objectives of the research are described below: 1.3.1 To evaluate the contribution of existing legislation to the provision of ecosystem services Two federal laws regulate land use in the study area by specifying which areas must be forested. Evaluating the extent to which these laws have been respected is a prerequisite for the development of new land-use policies. 1.3.2 To assess the provision of ecosystem services in various land uses Provision of ecosystem services such as storage of carbon in forests, prevention of sediment delivery in the lake, maintenance of soil fertility, and maintenance of chemical quality of water is expected to vary across land uses and also depend on characteristics of the local environment such as slope and soil. Physical assessments of ecosystem services in various scenarios of land use and environmental conditions are necessary to determine how human welfare can be affected by land use changes. 1.3.3 To estimate economic value of land uses Economic value can be estimated for land uses according to the benefits associated with their ecosystem services or to income obtained in economic productive systems. Uncovering these values is important in understanding the economic causes and consequences of land use changes. 1.3.4 To characterize land users and their roles as providers and beneficiaries of ecosystem services Ecosystem services can decline due to land use changes determined by land users’ perception of individual gains. Therefore, an in-depth analysis of the interests and incentives of land users is important to understand the factors affecting land use decisions. 20 1.3.5 To propose land use guidelines and mechanisms for the provision of ecosystem services The obtained information about effectiveness of land use policies, land uses, land use decisions, and values of ecosystem services can be used to design solutions for the problem of ecosystem services loss. One element of these possible solutions can be the development of PES mechanisms. 21 1.4 Thesis structure As listed in table 1.1 the thesis is structured in seven chapters including this introduction. Table 1.1 Thesis structure Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Past, present and future interventions in the Atlantic Forest landscape around the Atibainha reservoir, south eastern Brazil. Chapter 3: Defying legal protection of Atlantic Forest in the transforming landscape around the Atibainha reservoir, southeastern Brazil Chapter 4: Land use change and availability of ecosystem services in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Economic value maps of ecosystem services: innovative tools for planning interventions in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Chapter 5: Chapter 6: Challenges and opportunities for proposing mechanisms of payments for ecosystem services in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Chapter 7: Discussion and conclusion Chapter 2 explores aspects related to human interventions in the landscape of the study area. The purpose is to compile all the basic information that is necessary for the subsequent studies of the thesis. These aspects include historical causes of natural resources degradation, status of the Atlantic Forest biome, governance and legislation related to forest and water resources, spatial distribution of land uses and land users, gaps of knowledge about landscape planning, and opportunities for developing innovative land-use policies. Tools of geographic information system are used for organizing some of the information obtained and partitioning the landscape into watershed units, allowing more refined analysis of ecosystem services and policies. In chapter 3, using tools of geographic information systems, the spatial distribution of Atlantic Forest remnants and the spatial coverage of the forest legislation is investigated in order to reveal situations in which the provision of ecosystem services can be hindered due to absence or non-observance of the laws. Chapter 4 presents physical assessments of four ecosystem services in the study area: carbon storage in forest biomass for mitigation of climate change, prevention of erosion and sedimentation of the water reservoir, maintenance of chemical quality of water, and maintenance of soil fertility. The assessments are developed in four land use scenarios: 22 native forest, pasture, eucalyptus, and bare soil or urban area. Each of the selected ecosystem services requires a specific method of assessment. Geographic information system is used to control input data of some variables such as slope and type of soil that had to be considered in the estimates of ecosystem services, as well as for organizing a spatial representation of the results of the assessments. In chapter 5 the total economic value of various land uses are calculated. This includes the value of ecosystem services and the income obtained from productive systems such as forestry and pasturage. Various methods of valuation, discussed by Pearce et al. (2006) are applied, including replacement cost, travel cost, and benefit transfer. Methods of spatial economic valuation, discussed by Eade & Moran (1996) are adapted to this study for controlling in geographic information system the values of ecosystem services according to variations in environmental characteristics at any point of the landscape. Chapter 6 analyses challenges and opportunities for establishing PES mechanisms in the study area. It describes some pioneering initiatives in Brazil, the influence of the value of land uses estimated in chapter 5 upon land use decisions, and the necessity of developing procedures for certifying the provision of ecosystem services. This chapter concludes by suggesting a structure of PES schemes to be used in private initiatives and in policies. Chapter 7 contains a final discussion about how the studies related in this thesis have addressed the stated problem and how the objectives have been achieved. 23 1.5 Contribution to knowledge This thesis contributes to knowledge at three different levels: information and new data, methods, and policies. 1.5.1 Information and new data This is the first study that measures the various ecosystem services that are provided in the study area, and then goes on to reveal their total economic value. This research is innovative in revealing previously unknown details of the impacts of land use changes on the provision of some ecosystem services around the Atibainha reservoir. This has been possible due to the control in geographic information system of data collected in the physical surveys, which was subsequently used in the estimates of ecosystem services. Another contribution was the delineation of small catchments for partitioning the landscape into small units of spatial analysis. The obtained delineation of catchments will contribute to further studies of the landscape. 1.5.2 Methods This study is one of the very few to use methods of mapping ecosystem services (Troy & Wilson, 2006). It has contributed for improving these methods by demonstrating that they can be used for expressing the total economic values of ecosystem services and other benefits derived from land uses. It demonstrates how the science of ecosystem services can benefit from adapting various scientific methods that are traditionally used for other purposes. For instance, the assignment of values to the service of carbon storage was done through adaptation of vegetation survey methods, which had been originally developed for studies of phytosociology (Martins, 1993). For the first time, methods for estimating prevention of soil erosion and sedimentation, originally applied for agriculture purposes, have been used for valuing ecosystem services. The same has occurred with analysis of soil fertility. 1.5.3 Policies In terms of policies, three important contributions have been made. First, forest legislation was interpreted geographically. Second, a spatial analysis was undertaken of 24 the extent to which legislation has been respected. Finally, scientific information is provided for the development of PES schemes to be used both in private and in policies in the study area. 25 1.6 References Amazonas, 2007. Lei Estadual 3135 de 04 de junho de 2007. Assembléia Legislativa do Estado do Amazonas, Manaus. Brasil, 1965. Codigo Florestal Brasileiro: lei 4.771 de 15 de setembro de 1965. Câmara dos Deputados, Brasília. Brasil, 2006. Lei da Mata Atlântica: lei Federal 11428 de 22 de dezembro de 2006. Câmara dos Deputados, Brasília. Costanza R., d'Arge R., Groot R., Farber S., Grasso M., Hannon B., Limburg K., Naeem S., O'Neill R.V., Paruelo J., Raskin R.G., Sutton P., Belt M., 1997. The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital . Nature, 387: 253-260. Daily G.C., 1997. Nature’s Services: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems. Island Press, Washington. Ditt E.H., Knight J., Ghazoul J., Padua C.V., 2006. Legislation to protect Atlantic Forest landscapes in Southeastern Brazil: incentives, opportunities and obstacles. 5TH European Conference on Ecological Restoration. Greifswald, Germany. Eade J.D.O., Moran D., 1996. Spatial Economic Valuation: Benefits Transfer using Geographical Information Systems. Journal of Environmental Management, 48(2):97110. Extrema, 2005. Lei Municipal 2100, de 21 de dezembro de 2005. Câmara Municipal, Extrema. Fadini A.A.B., Carvalho P.F., 2004. Os Usos da Água do Moinho: Um estudo na Bacia Hidrográfica do Ribeirão do Moinho. Annals of the II Encontro Nacional da Associaço Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Ambiente e Sociedade. ANPPAS, Campinas. Furtado J.I.R., Kishor N., Rao G.V., Wood C., 1999. Global Climate Change and Bidiversity: Challenges for the Future and the Way Ahead. WBI Working Papers. World Bank Institute, Washington. 26 Guo Z., Xiao X., Gan Y., Zheng Y., 2001. Ecosystem functions, services and their values - a case study in Xingshan County of China. Ecological Economics, 38(1):141154. Hoeffel J.L., Fadini A.A.B., Machado M.K., Lima F.B., 2006. Conservation Units, Tourism, and Environmental Impacts in the Bragantina Region, São Paulo, Brazil. In: Harmon D. (Ed.), 2006. People, Places, and Parks: Proceedings of the 2005 George Wright Society Conference on Parks, Protected Areas, and Cultural Sites. Hancock, Michigan: The George Wright Society. Kosoy N., Martinez-Tuna M., Muradian R., Martinez-Alier J., 2007. Payments for environmental services in watersheds: Insights from a comparative study of three cases in Central America. Ecological Economics, 61(2-3):446-455. Martins F.R., 1993. Estrutura de Uma Floresta Mesófila. Editora da Unicamp, Campinas. Mattos L., Faleiro A., Pereira C., 2001. Uma proposta alternativa para o desenvolvimento da produção familiar rural da Amazonia: o caso do Proambiente. IV Encontro Nacional da Sociedade Brasileira de Economia Ecológica. ECOECO, Belém. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2000. Ecosystems and Human Well being: A Framework for Assessment. Island Press, Washington. Morellato L.P.C., Haddad C.F.B., 2000. Introduction: The Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Biotropica, 32(4B):786-792. Motta, R.S., 1997. Manual para valoração econômica dos recursos naturais. Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada & Ministério do Meio Ambiente, dos Recursos Hídricos e da Amazônia Legal, Rio de Janeiro. Myers N., Mittermeier R.A., Mittermeier C.G., Da Fonseca G.A.B., Kent J. 2000. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature, 403(6772):853-858. Pagiola S., Arcenas A., Platais G., 2005. Can Payments for Environmental Services Help Reduce Poverty? An Exploration of the Issues and the Evidence to Date from Latin America. World Development, 33(2):237-253. 27 Pearce D., Moran D., 1994. The economic Value of Biodiversity. Earthscan Publications Ltd, London. Pearce D., Atkinson G., Mourato S., 2006. Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Environment: recent developments. OECD, Paris. Rosa H., Kandel S., Dimas L., 2004. Compensation for environmental services and rural communities: lessons from the Americas. International Forestry Review, 6(2):187-194. Troy A., Wilson, M.A., 2006. Mapping ecosystem services: Practical challenges and opportunities in linking GIS and value transfer. Ecological Economics, 60: 435-449. Whately M., Cunha P., 2007. Cantareira 2006: um olhar sobre o maior manancial de água da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. Instituto Socioambiental, São Paulo. Yu C.M., 2004. Sequestro florestal do carbono no Brasil: dimensões políticas socioeconômicas e ecológicas. In: Sanqueta, C. et al. (Eds.) Fixação de carbono: Atualidades, projetos e pesquisas. Laboratório de Inventário Florestal – UFPR/ Instituto Ecoplan, Curitiba. 28 CHAPTER 2 PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE INTERVENTIONS IN THE ATLANTIC FOREST LANDSCAPE AROUND THE ATIBAINHA RESERVOIR, SOUTH-EASTERN BRAZIL. 2.1 Introduction Since the European colonizations of the 16th century, a succession of habitat degradation has occurred in the Atlantic Forest. Expansion of coffee plantations, mining, urbanization, industrialization and tourism were some of these forces (Dean, 1996). Their establishment was normally been influenced by policies driven by the perception of economic gains associated with changes in land use, without considering the environmental impacts. Environmental planning approaches are urgently needed to provide quick responses to policies that can reverse these tendencies by stimulating sound land uses (Santos, 2004). This necessity is most evident in regions that abound in unspoilt natural areas but are also highly populated by humans and thus vulnerable to disturbances. One example is the region surrounding the Atibainha reservoir (the area of this study) in the eastern part of São Paulo State. Water resources and remnants of Atlantic Forest are abundant in this region, but are particularly vulnerable to degradation due to the proximity of 16 million inhabitants of the great Sao Paulo (Braga, 2001). The development of innovative and effective approaches to environmental planning requires understanding of the policies that have been implemented to date and the gaps in availability of local information. Some of the most important themes explored in previous studies in this region include: the effects of the construction of the Atibainha reservoir on the lives of local inhabitants (Rodrigues, 1999; Fadini & Carvalho, 2004), environmental impacts derived from the duplication of a highway (São Paulo, 1998a), challenges of policy and sustainable management of the Cantareira Water System, which includes the Atibainha reservoir (Braga, 2001; Braga, 2004; Whately & Cunha, 2007), subsidies for developing environmental education strategies (Hoeffel et al., 29 2004), the role of protected areas (Hoeffel et al., 2006a), management plans of water resources (CBH-PCJ, 2003; São Paulo, 2005a), and priority areas for biodiversity conservation in Atlantic Forest remnants (Conservation International do Brasil et al., 2000). Some of the most important gaps in the information that is crucial for land use planning in the region of the Atibainha reservoir refer to: i) integration of knowledge about past, current and future driving forces of conservation and degradation of landscapes; ii) small-scale spatial representation of biophysical features for research and policy uses; and iii) characterization of land users and their role in conservation of Atlantic Forest and water resources. The current study aims to contribute to filling these gaps through a discussion about the themes mentioned above and through the use of geographic information systems for an integrated description of social and environmental variables that must be considered for planning interventions in the landscape. 30 2.2 The Atlantic Forest around the Atibainha reservoir The Atlantic Forest historically covered 1.3 million square kilometres. This corresponds to 15% of Brazil (Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica et al., 1998). Its distribution coincides with the lands where the European colonization begun 500 years ago: coastal areas from south to north-eastern Brazil and inland areas in the south (figure 2.1). Since the period of colonization more than 93% of these forests have been cleared (Morellato, 2000). Due to an exceptional concentration of endemic species, the Atlantic Forest is one of 25 world hotspots (Myers et al., 2000) and because of the extraordinary loss of habitat, it is a key region for study. Two main types of vegetation predominate in the Atlantic Forest: entire dense broadleaved evergreen rainforest in coastal areas and seasonal semi-deciduous forest in inland regions (Veloso et al., 2001). A few pristine forests composed entirely of the former type of vegetation are still found in relatively large protected areas such as the Serra do Mar State Park in São Paulo State. The second type of vegetation no longer exists in its pristine state. Its occurrence is restricted to small fragments of forests. In São Paulo State, for instance, the largest fragment of semi-deciduous forest is Morro do Diabo State Park, with 36,000 hectares. The remaining fragments are smaller than 10,000 hectares (Ditt, 2002). The remaining Atlantic Forest in Brazil occupies less than 100,000 square kilometres and it remains vulnerable to degradation from the more than 100 million people in approximately 3,000 cities within its distribution (Morellato, 2000). Nazaré Paulista, where the Atibainha reservoir is primarily located, has a relatively small population of approximately 15,000 inhabitants. Fragments of seasonal semideciduous forests occupy approximately 40% of its area (IPT, 2007). Putative reasons for the high proportion of forest cover in this region (compared to the average of 7% of remaining Atlantic Forest in Brazil as a whole) are the limitations for expansion of agriculture due to hilly slopes and the legal restrictions for land use changes due to the presence of the Atibainha water reservoir. Despite these restrictions, severe changes in land use and threats to the conservation of the remaining forest fragments are likely to occur in the next decade due to anthropogenic disturbances associated with the more than 16 million inhabitants of São 31 Paulo and its surrounding cities, which occur within 100 kilometres of Nazaré Paulista (Hoeffel et al., 2006b). Figure 2.1 Maps of reservoirs in the Cantareira System, State of São Paulo, and original distribution of Atlantic Forest in Brazil. 32 2.3 The Cantareira System To avoid water shortages expected from the rapid and unplanned growth of metropolitan São Paulo, the government began constructing the Cantareira Water Supply System in the 1960s (Braga, 2001). This system is formed by 6 reservoirs: Jaguari, Jacareí, Cachoeira, Atibainha, Paiva-Castro and Águas Claras. The management and water use from the reservoirs is administered by the Sabesp water company following regulations known as “outorga do Sistema Cantareira”. By observing these regulations, Sabesp may take up to 31,000 litres of water per second for supplying demands in the metropolitan region of São Paulo and up to 5,000 litres of water per second for supplying demands of the basins of the rivers Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiaí (Whately & Cunha, 2007). The relationship between forest presence, quality and availability of water in watersheds is widely recognized (Lima & Zakia, 2006). Therefore preventing future land use changes around the reservoirs is crucial for the continued use of water by Sabesp. Since the Cantareira System was inaugurated in 1973, the population of metropolitan São Paulo has increased from 6 million to 19 million inhabitants. The lands around Cantareira System are perceived by these people as potential residencial alternatives to the metropolitan areas. Consequently, the urban areas here increased by 33.5% from 1989 to 2003 (Whately & Cunha, 2007). These numbers reinforce the need to develop land-use policies and management that integrate the interests of different stakeholders, while promoting sound land uses. A possible reference for the development of such strategies is the New York water supply system. It is recognized worldwide as a result of successful land use policies that integrate various mechanisms, such as land acquisition, conservation easements, buffer zones, and land trusts, based on the understanding that investing in planning and managing watershed to ensure sound land uses is more convenient than investing only in systems for filtering the water (Pires, 2004; Dudley & Stolton, 2003). Similarly, the diversity of land uses and land users in the Cantareira region requires diverse and integrated approaches for ensuring the maintenance of practices that do not jeopardize the quality and availability of water and further the conservation of natural resources in Atlantic Forest remnants. 33 2.4 Legal rules of conservation The current regulations for use and conservation of natural resources around the Atibainha reservoir can be grouped into three themes: protected areas, forests, and water. A description of the main components of the legislation according to these themes is presented in the following paragraphs. 2.4.1 Protected Areas Environmental Protected Areas (EPAs) known as “APA” in Portuguese, are one of the various categories of Brazilian protected areas. EPAs can be created by municipalities, state, or federal governments to ensure human welfare and improve ecological conditions by restricting: i) pollutant industries that may affect water resources; ii) movements of lands and opening of channels; iii) activities that cause soil erosion; and iv) threats to species of local biota (Brasil, 1981). The Atibainha reservoir and the surrounding land are located in an area where two EPAs overlap. These are named “Sistema Cantareira”, and “Piracicaba/Juqueri-Mirim” (São Paulo, 2001). Although these EPAs were created through State laws (São Paulo, 1986; São Paulo, 1991; São Paulo, 1998b), currently they are not effective because no regulations have officially been approved for specifying restrictions to be applied (Whately & Cunha, 2007). The official approval of such regulations may occur in the future through a Decree of law to be signed by the State governor. 2.4.2 Forests The Brazilian Forest Code is a federal law that promotes conservation of forest in areas designated as “legal reserves” (LR) and “Permanent Preservation Areas” (PPA). The rules for defining LR and PPA vary according to region. In the southern region where the Atibainha reservoir is located, legal reserves correspond to 20% of the area of every rural property that must be retained as a forest reserve. According to the Forest Code, the legal reserves must be registered and specified in ownership documents (Brasil, 1965). However, the majority of landowners in Nazaré Paulista have not yet defined their legal reserves. Although the clearing of forests is prohibited in legal reserves, the Forest Code states that these forests are suitable for commercial exploitation. Such exploitation can be 34 permitted if the landowners submit management plans for approval by a state environmental agency. Permanent Preservation Areas refer to shore areas of 30 metres on both banks of rivers and streams, 100 metres around the shore of reservoirs, areas with a slope greater than 45 degrees, and mountaintops (defined as the area above 2/3 of the total altitude of the mountains). In addition to the Forest Code, there is another law that protects the remaining forests in Nazaré Paulista. It is known as “Atlantic Forest Law” (Brasil, 2006). This was approved in 2006 and updates Decree 750 (Brasil, 1993), which has contributed to the prevention of Atlantic Forest since 1993. The Atlantic Forest law restricts suppression of vegetation in primary forests or secondary forests classified as being in a medium or advanced stage of regeneration, including those located outside LR and PPA. Criteria for such classification include analysis of forest physiognomy and the diameter class and heights of trees (Brasil & São Paulo, 1994). 2.4.3 Water The Piracicaba, Capivari, and Jundiaí rivers are the main components of the PCJ basin, which is one of the most important watersheds in the state of São Paulo and also where the Atibainha reservoir is located. Rivers in the PCJ basin are either federal or state domains. Therefore, an adequate management of water resources in the PCJ watershed depends on the integration of federal and state policies. In 1997 the National Policy of Water Resources (NPWR) was implemented and the National System of Management of Water Resources (NSMWR) was created through federal law 9433, which is known as the “Law of Waters” (Brasil, 1997). The objectives of the NSMWR are listed in table 2.1. The NPWR is provided with the instruments listed in table 2.2 for achieving its objectives. The components of the NSMWR are listed in table 2.3 with their respective tasks. One of these components is the National Council of Water Resources (NCWR), whose tasks include the establishment of general criteria for charging for the use of water. Ceará, in northeastern Brazil, was the first state to implement a system of charging for the use of water following the approval of the federal Law of Waters. The second implementation of this system occurred in 2005 in the Paraíba do Sul watershed, which is a river of federal domains in Rio de Janeiro State. 35 The NCWR issued Resolution 48, which specifies criteria to be adopted in the establishment of systems for charging for water use (CNRH, 2005a). This resolution sought to replicate the Paraíba do Sul model in other Brazilian watersheds (Weis, 2005). Charging for water use in rivers of federal domains in the PCJ watershed was subsequently approved through Resolution 52 of the NCWR (CNRH, 2005b). Federal charging for the use of water from the PCJ basin began in January 2006 (CBH-PCJ, 2006). State policies have evolved to be compatible with the federal water charges in São Paulo. Guidelines for a State Policy of Water Resources were established in 1991 by State Law 7663 (São Paulo, 1991). In 2005 Law 12183 was approved, establishing charges for the use of water in state rivers (São Paulo, 2005b). Criteria and rules for such charges were specified by the Decree 50667 (São Paulo, 2006), which was signed by the State governor in 2006 and became active in 2007. The price for each cubic metre of water from state and federal rivers, established by Resolution 52 of the NCWR, is R$0.02 (CNRH, 2005b). This revenue is transferred to FEHIDRO – the State Fund of Water Resources, which is responsible for approval and financing of projects according to guidelines of the watershed plans and to the objectives and goals of the State Plan of Water Resources. Private and public institutions may apply for grants from FEHIDRO through projects related to 8 themes, designated as “Continuous Duration Programs” by the Resolution 55 of the NCWR (CNRH, 2005c). These are listed in table 2.4. Table 2.1 Objectives of the National Policy of Water Resources (NPWR) and the National System of Management of Water Resources (NSMWR) NPWR NSMWR • ensuring availability of water with good quality for current and future generations; • coordinating integrated management of waters; managing conflicts related to water resources; • rational and integrated use of water resources, according to principles of sustainable development; • implementing the NPWR; • planning, regulating and controlling the use, preservation and recovery of water resources; • promoting charge for the use of water resources. • preventing hydrological problems associated to natural causes or to inadequate use of natural resources. 36 Table 2.2 Instruments of the National Policy of Water Resources with their respective applicability. Instruments Applicability Water resources plan Diagnosis of current status of water resources; Analysis of alternative demographic growth, productive systems, and changes in land use; Analysis of availability and future demands for water, and potential conflicts; Establishment of goals of rational use, increase, and improvement of quality of water resources; Development of actions, programs and projects for achieving their goals; Priorities for permitting (“outorga”) the use of water resources; Criteria for charging for the use of water resources; Proposals to create areas with restrictions of land use for protection of water resources. Classification of water bodies according to preponderant uses of water Ensuring compatibility of the quality of water with their designated use; Permission (Outorga) for the use of water resources Capturing water from water bodies or underground aquifers for consumption, including supplying public demand or productive systems; Preventive actions for reducing costs to mitigate water pollution. Rules about delivering sewage in water bodies; Hydroelectric uses; Other uses that affect quality and availability of water. Charging use of water resources Recognizing economic value of water; Incentive to rational use of water; Funds for programs and interventions within water resources plan. System of information of water resources Consolidate and divulge data and information about status of water resources; Updating information about availability and demand of water resources across the country; Subsidising the elaboration of water resources plans. (Source: Brasil, 1997). 37 Table 2.3 Institutions that compose the National System of Management of Water Resources, and their respective tasks according to the federal laws 9433/1997 and 9984/2000. Institution National Council of Water Resources National Agency of Waters State and Federal District Councils of Water Resources Watershed Committees Federal, State, and Municipal agencies related to management of water resources Water Agencies Tasks stated by federal laws 9433 (Brasil, 1997) and 9984 (Brasil, 2000) Promoting articulation of national, state, and regional planning of water resources with their users; Judging “in definitive” conflicts among State Councils of Water Resources; Deliberating about issues submitted by the State Councils of Water Resources or by the Watershed Committees; Analysing proposals of changes in legislation about water resources and the NPWR; Establishing complementary guidelines for: i) implementation of the NPWR, ii) use of tools of the NPWR, and iii) actions of the NSMWR; Approving proposals for the establishment of watershed committees, and establishing general criteria for elaboration of their rules; Accompanying and approving the National Plan of Water Resources; Establishing general criteria for permitting the use of water (“outorga”) and for charging for its use. Supervising, controlling, and evaluating actions and activities determined by federal legislation about water resources; Establishing rules for implementation, controlling and evaluation of tools of the NPWR; Permitting (“outorga”) the use of water resources of federal domains; Surveillance the use of water resources in water bodies under federal domains; Elaborating technical studies for supporting the National Council of Water Resources in the definition of values to be charged for the use of water resources of federal domains, according to mechanisms suggested by watershed committees; Stimulating the creation of watershed committees; Articulation with watershed committees for charging for the use of water resources; Collection and distribution of resources originated from the charge for the use of water resources; Supporting states and municipalities through planning and promoting actions for preventing and reducing effects of drought and flooding; Promoting studies that subsidize the use of federal resources in works and services of regularization of water bodies, use and distribution of water, and controlling water pollution, as determined by the water resources plans; Defining and surveillance conditions of operation of the reservoirs, looking for ensuring multiple use of water resources as determined by the water resources plans; Promoting and coordinating activities of the national hydro meteorological network, articulated with the associated agencies and institutions; Organizing, implementing and managing the National System of Information of Water Resources; Stimulating research and capacity building for the management of water resources; Supporting the state governments in the creation of agencies for management of water resources; Proposing to the National Council of Water Resources the establishment of incentives to the conservation of water resources. No attribution is stated in the laws 9433/1997 and 9984/2000. Promoting debates about issues related to water resources, and articulating actions of the institutions; “Preliminary” judging of conflicts related to water resources; Approving water resources plan of the watershed; Accompanying the development of water resources plan of the watershed and suggesting the necessary providences for achieving its goals; Proposing to the National and State Councils exemption of permission (“outorga”) in circumstances of low expressiveness of accumulation, derivation, capturing of water, and waste delivering; Establishing mechanisms for charging the use of water and suggesting values to be charged; Establishing criteria and promoting sharing of costs of works of multiple use. No attribution is stated in the laws 9433/1997 and 9984/2000. Maintaining an updated balance of the availability of water resources in their respective region; Maintaining records of users of water resources; Charging consumers for the use of water resources; Analysing and issuing opinion about projects and works to be funded with resources from charging for the use of water resources; Accompanying the financial management of funds raised through the charge for the use of water resources; Managing the System of Information of Water Resources; Developing contracts for financing and services; Elaborating and submitting budget proposal to the respective watershed committee; Promoting the necessary studies for the management of water resources in their respective area; Elaborating the Water Resources Plan for appreciation by the respective watershed committee; Proposing to the watershed committee: i) classification of the water bodies, ii) values to be charged for the use of water resources, iii) plan of use of the resources raised through the charge for the use of water resources, and iv) sharing the costs of works of multiple uses. 38 Table 2.4 Themes of “Continuous Duration Programs” (CDP) determined by the National Council of Water Resources (CNRH, 2005c). Designation Theme CDP 1 Database, data records, surveys and studies CDP2 Management of water resources CDP3 Recovering quality of water bodies CDP4 Conservation and protection of water bodies CDP5 Promoting rational use of water resources CDP6 Multiple use of water resources CDP7 Preventing and defending against extreme hydrologic events CDP8 Technical capacity building, environmental education and social communication 39 2.5 Partitioning landscape for environmental planning at a local scale There is no single correct spatial scale for diagnosing ecosystems or landscapes. Environmental issues can only be partially comprehended if only one scale of analysis is adopted (Santos, 2004). Therefore, combining approaches of various scales can increase the effectiveness of plans of interventions in the landscape for conserving natural resources. The previous sections refer to some studies that consist of analyses in a broad scale of threats and opportunities to conserve the Atlantic Forest and water resources in the region where the Atibainha reservoir is located. These studies have been crucial for the development of policy guidelines. For instance, broad scale studies of forces of landscape transformations around water reservoirs, demands of water supply, and degradation of remnants of forest, have resulted in the creation of environmental protected areas, the elaboration of the Law of Waters, and the establishment of forest legislation, respectively. These studies and policies can be improved through the adoption of fine scale approaches of interpretation of the environment. 2.5.1 Catchment delineation Analyses at a fine scale can be developed through partitioning the landscape according to patterns of biophysical features. One possible form of such partitioning is through delineation of drainage areas according to slope. This approach was adopted in the current study through the following procedures: i. Contour lines at intervals of 10 metres from topographic maps produced by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, 1978) of approximately 20,000 hectares around the Atibainha reservoir were digitized, using the software ArcMap (Esri, 2002). ii. The digitized contour lines were used to produce a digital elevation model (DEM). iii. Stream segments were created from the resulting DEM, using Arc Hydro (Maidment, 2002) which is a geospatial data model for water resources that operates within ArcMap. For defining the beginning of the streams a threshold upstream drainage area of 0.25 square kilometers was used. 40 iv. Catchments were delineated from the confluences of all the stream segments that have been created. A polygon shapefile was generated in ArcMap, consisting of a GIS layer that represents the delineation of catchments. v. The boundaries of the Atibainha reservoir indicated in the maps of IBGE (1978) were digitized in ArcMap. vi. The GIS layer of the Atibainha reservoir was used to clip the polygon shapefile of catchments, using the Geoprocessing Wizard of ArcMap. vii. The obtained clipped catchments adjacent to the Atibainha reservoir were selected as the target areas of the current study. This process of partitioning the landscape resulted in the delineation of 188 catchments (figure 2.2). Figure 2.2 Delineation of catchments for a fine scale analysis of landscape around the Atibainha reservoir. 41 2.5.2 Mapping land uses The utility of partitioning the landscape into catchments for a refined scale of environmental planning depends on the availability of information that can be assigned to each catchment. Relevant information can be assigned to the catchments if land uses are mapped. Some of the main land uses in the catchments around the Atibainha reservoir were mapped in this study. Procedures for mapping land uses consisted of stereoscopy and visual interpretation of aerial photographs of the study area taken in 2003 at a scale of 1:20,000, accompanied by the construction of a polygon shapefile in ArcMap (Esri, 2002). Further adjustments were made through ground truth verification and consultation of documents produced by the Technological Research Institute (IPT, 2007). The resulting map of land use is illustrated in figure 2.3. 2.5.3 Land users and conservation of forest and water resources The identification of land users with their respective spatial domains is an important complement to the map of land uses for characterizing the landscape in a local scale. This information is necessary for comprehending the driving forces of landscape change. Moreover,it is helpful for planning mechanisms to stimulate sound land uses. Analysis of aerial photographs, consultation of technical reports (IPT, 2007), and collection of information in the water company (Sabesp), enabled the recognition of five main categories of land users in the catchments around the Atibainha reservoir: the water company (Sabesp); cattle ranchers; eucalyptus farmers; owners of hotels; and households. The areas of these different land users are indicated on the map in figure 2.3 and summarized in Appendix 2.1. Sabesp holds more than 1,500 hectares of lands in the study area. These lands were acquired by the state government in the 1960s for the establishment of the reservoir and some buffer zones in its margins. Native forests occupy approximately 60% of these lands. Despite the fact that they do not constitute forest reserves, deforestation is supposed to be more restricted in these areas than in privately owned areas because they are officially designated to protect water resources. Even the pastures, that constitute the remaining 40% of Sabesp’s areas, will probably not be converted into other non forest uses. They are likely to be maintained or in some cases to be converted into native forest through natural regeneration or through projects of forest restoration (Sabesp, personal communication). 42 Sabesp owns only 20% of the total area of the catchments, i.e. most of the lands (80%) that should be destined for buffering the reservoir in order to ensure protection of the water resources are privately owned. More than 2,000 hectares are pasture for cattle ranching, which is the main economic activity in the region. Cattle ranchers prevent regeneration of native forests in their lands to ensure the maintenance of pastures for the cattle. One tenth of the study area, i.e. more than 700 hectares, are currently owned by eucalyptus farmers. The proportion of land occupied by eucalyptus is expected to increase in the following decade because environmental conditions of Nazaré Paulista are highly suitable for cultivation of eucalyptus and there is an increasing demand for wood in the region. Besides the cultivation of eucalyptus, tourism has also been increasing in the region. There are 25 hotels in Nazaré Paulista and many of them are located near the Atibainha reservoir. Although there are only 120 hectares of lands under hotel ownership in the study area, tourism activities are dependent on the maintenance of forest cover on others’ lands because of the scenic beauty associated with the presence of remnants of Atlantic Forest near the reservoir is a key attraction for tourists. The scenic beauty is also one of the main reasons for the building of houses that covers approximately 650 hectares of land. These areas are composed mainly of residential housing in urban areas or in areas that are in the process of urbanization, and residences that are used as country weekend houses by people from large towns such as São Paulo. The hotels and houses have the potential to eliminate one of the main reasons for their establishment in Nazaré Paulista, which is the presence of forest and water resources. Therefore, the sustainability of economic activities associated with tourism in hotels and the continued attractiveness of the houses depend on successful landscape planning in order to ensure environmental conservation. 43 2.6 Opportunities for sound interventions in the landscape: conclusions Considerable advances have been achieved in policies of land use and conservation of water and Atlantic Forest in the Cantareira System. The Forest Code, the Atlantic Forest Law, the Law of Waters, and the institutional arrangements for charging for the use of water resources are some of the results already obtained from these efforts. The effectiveness of the policies that have been developed to date depends on paying attention to specific details relevant to the environment at the local scale. For instance, the optimal use of financial resources raised from payments for the use of water resources depends on understanding the local pressure resulting in the degradation of water and forests. Some land users such as cattle ranchers may be more interested in keeping their land clear to increase the carrying capacity for livestock. Others, such as owners of hotels may prefer to conserve the forests because of the scenic beauty that can be provided for their guests. The water company must have the interest in the preservation of forests around the reservoir for preventing sedimentation, whereas the eucalyptus farmers can wish to clear land of native forests to implement their plantations. If these issues, which relate to opportunity costs of alternative land uses, are ignored the policies are likely to fail. The following conclusions and recommendations can be derived from the issues discussed in the previous sections of this chapter: • Efforts to promote enforcement of forest laws are crucial for ensuring the conservation of remaining fragments of Atlantic Forest around the Atibainha reservoir; • Regulations must be developed and officially approved for the management of the Environmental Protected Areas (EPA) “Sistema Cantareira” and “Piracicaba/Juqueri-Mirim” ; • Rules for using financial resources from the charge for use of water can be improved through understanding forces of degradation in a local scale; • The small catchments delineated in the study area can help to analyze the landscape at a fine scale for environmental planning; 44 • The fine scale approaches of landscape planning being developed in the lands around the Atibainha reservoir should be adapted for a replication to the other areas of the Cantareira System; • Successful policies to conserve water and forest resources require diverse and integrated approaches, i.e. there is not only one single solution or strategy. Therefore, command-and-control mechanisms based on the current legislation can be combined with economic incentive mechanisms, as well as with other conservation strategies such as environmental education and technical support to decision makers. Figure 2.3. Land uses and land users around the Atibainha reservoir. 45 2.7 References Braga B., 2001. Integrated urban water resources management: A challenge into the 21st century. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 17(4):581-99. Braga B., 2004. Estudo Técnico: Subsídios para a análise do pedido de outorga do Sistema Cantareira e para a definição das condições de operação dos seus reservatórios. ANA – Agência Nacional de Águas, São Paulo. Brasil, 1965. Codigo Florestal Brasileiro: lei 4.771 de 15 de setembro de 1965. Câmara dos Deputados, Brasília. Brasil, 1981. Lei Federal 6902 de 27 de abril de 1981. Câmara dos Deputados, Brasília. Brasil, 1993. Decreto 750 de 10 de fevereiro de 1993. Governo Federal, Brasília. Brasil, 1997. Lei 9433 de 08 de janeiro de 1997. Câmara dos Deputados, Brasília. Brasil, 2000. Lei 9984 de 17 de julho de 2000. Câmara dos Deputados, Brasília. Brasil, 2006. Lei da Mata Atlântica: lei Federal 11428 de 22 de dezembro de 2006. Câmara dos Deputados, Brasília. Brasil, São Paulo, 1994. Resolução conjunta 01, de 17 de fevereiro de 1994. Intituto Brasileiro do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renováveis & Secretaria de Meio Ambiente do Estado de São Paulo, Brasília. CBH-PCJ, 2003. Plano de Bacia Hidrográfica 2000-2003: Síntese do Relatório Final. Comitê das Bacias Hidrográficas dos Rios Piracicaba, Capivari e Jundiaí, Americana. CBH-PCJ, 2006. Fundamentos da Cobrança pelo Uso dos Recursos Hídricos nas Bacias PCJ. Comitê das Bacias Hidrográficas dos Rios Piracicaba, Capivari e Jundiaí, Americana. CNRH, 2005a Resolução 48, de 21 de marçi de 2005. Conselho Nacional dos Recursos Hídricos, Brasília. CNRH, 2005b Resolução 52, de 28 de novembro de 2005. Conselho Nacional dos Recursos Hídricos, Brasília. 46 CNRH, 2005c Resolução 55, de 28 de novembro de 2005. Conselho Nacional dos Recursos Hídricos, Brasília. Conservation International do Brasil, Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica, Fundação Biodiversitas, IPÊ – Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas, Secretaria do Meio Ambiente do Estado de São Paulo, Instituto Estadual de Florestas – MG, 2000. Avaliação e Ações Prioritárias para a Conservação da Biodiversidade dos Biomas Mata Atlântica e Campos Sulinos. Brasília, Probio – Ministério do Meio Ambiente, Brasília. Dean W., 1996. A Ferro e Fogo: a história e a devastação da mata atlântica brasileira. Companhia das Letras, São Paulo. Ditt E.H., 2002. Fragmentos Florestais no Pontal do Paranapanema. Ed. Annablume, São Paulo. Dudley N., Stolton S., 2003. Running Pure: The importance of forest protected areas to drinking water. World Bank/WWF Alliance for Forest Conservation and Sustainable Use, Washington. ESRI, 2002. ArcMap version 8.3. ESRI, Redlands. Fadini A.A.B., Carvalho P.F., 2004. Os Usos da Água do Moinho: Um estudo na Bacia Hidrográfica do Ribeirão do Moinho. Annals of the II Encontro Nacional da Associaço Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Ambiente e Sociedade. ANPPAS, Campinas. Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica, INPE, ISA, 1998. Atlas da evolução dos remanescentes florestais e ecossistemas associados no domínio da Mata Atlântica no período 19901995. Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica, São Paulo. Hoeffel J.L., Fadini A.A.B., Suarez C.F.S., 2004. Meio Ambiente, Comunidade Local e Extensão Universitária - Prática Interdisciplinar na Universidade São Francisco, SP. Annals of the 2º Congresso Brasileiro de Extensão Universitária, Belo Horizonte. Hoeffel J.L., Fadini A.A.B., Machado M.K., Lima F.B., 2006a. Conservation Units, Tourism, and Environmental Impacts in the Bragantina Region, São Paulo, Brazil. In: Harmon, David, (ed.) People, Places, and Parks: Proceedings of the 2005 George 47 Wright Society Conference on Parks, Protected Areas, and Cultural Sites. The George Wright Society, Hancock. Hoeffel J.L., Fadini A.A.B., Machado M.K., Reis J.C., 2006b. Percepção Ambiental e Conflitos de Uso dos Recursos Naturais - Um Estudo na APA do Sistema Cantareira, São Paulo, Brasil. Annals of the III Encontro Nacional da Associaço Nacional de PósGraduação e Pesquisa em Ambiente e Sociedade. ANPPAS, Brasília. IBGE, 1978. Cartas topográficas do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, Rio de Janeiro. IPT, 2007. Plano Diretor de Nazaré Paulista: Parecer Técnico 11.501-301. Instituto de Pesquisas Técnológicas, São Paulo. Lima W.P., Zakia M.J.B, 2006. O papel do ecossistema ripário. In: Lima W.P., Zakia M.J.B., As Florestas Plantadas e a Água. Rima Editora, São Paulo Maidment D.R., 2002. Arc-Hydro: GIS for water resources. ESRI, Austin. Morellato L.P.C., Haddad C.F.B., 2000. Introduction: The Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Biotropica, 32(4B):786-92. Myers N, Mittermeier R.A., Mittermeier C.G., Da Fonseca G.A.B., Kent J., 2000. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature, 403(6772):853-8. Pires M., 2004. Watershed protection for a world city: the case of New York. Land Use Policy, 21: 161-175. Rodrigues C.M.C., 1999. Águas aos olhos de Santa Luzia. Ed. Unicamp, Campinas. Santos R. F., 2004. Planejamento Ambiental: teoria e prática. Oficina de Textos, São Paulo. São Paulo, 1986. Lei estadual 5280 de 04 de setembro de 1986. Assembléia Legislativa, São Paulo. São Paulo, 1991. Lei estadual 7438 d 16 de julho de 1991. Assembléia Legislativa, São Paulo. 48 São Paulo, 1998a. Entre Serras e Águas: Relatório de qualidade ambiental. n°4. Secretaria do Meio Ambiente, São Paulo. São Paulo, 1998b. Lei estadual 10.111 de 4 de dezembro de 1998. Assembléia Legislativa, São Paulo. São Paulo, 2001. APAS – Áreas de Proteção Ambiental Estaduais: Proteção e Desenvolvimento em São Paulo. Secretaria do Meio Ambiente, São Paulo. São Paulo, 2005a. Plano Estadual de Recursos Hídricos 2004-2007. Secretaria de Energia, Recursos Hídricos e Saneamento, São Paulo. São Paulo, 2005b. Lei Estadual 12183 de 29 de dezembro de 2005. Assembléia Legislativa, São Paulo. São Paulo, 2006. Decreto de lei 50667 de 30 de março de 2006. Governo do Estado, São Paulo. Rodrigues C.M.C., 1999. Águas aos olhos de Santa Luzia. Ed. Unicamp, Campinas. Veloso H.P., Rangel-Filho A.L.R., Lima J.C.A., 2001. Classificação da vegetação brasileira adaptada a um sistema universal. Fundação Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística – IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Weis B., 2005. Notícias Socioambientais: CNRH tenta estimular a cobrança pelo uso da água. Instituto Socioambiental, São Paulo. Whately M., Cunha P., 2007. Cantareira 2006: um olhar sobre o maior manancial de água da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. Instituto Socioambiental, São Paulo. 49 CHAPTER 3 DEFYING LEGAL PROTECTION OF ATLANTIC FOREST IN THE TRANSFORMING LANDSCAPE AROUND THE ATIBAINHA RESERVOIR, SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL 3.1 Introduction The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is one of the most threatened biomes in the world with less than 8% of the original 1,227,000 km2 remaining. Of this, less than 40% is located within protected areas such as designated nature reserves (Myers et al., 2000; Morellato and Haddad, 2000). It is, therefore, essential that landscape management and planning is sensitive to the protection of forest remnants that lie outside officially designated protected areas to maintain biodiversity of this vulnerable but highly valuable biome (Cullen et al., 2005). Continued degradation and clearance of Atlantic Forest outside designated conservation areas have been in defiance of two important components of Brazilian legislation: the Forest Code and the Decree of Law 750 (Tabarelli et al., 2005). The Forest Code, a federal law that was created in 1965, requires the preservation of forest on “Permanent Preservation Areas” (PPA) and on “legal reserves” (LR). The PPA refer to forest adjacent to rivers and reservoirs, steep slopes and hilltops (definitions of these criteria are given in the Methods below), and the LR correspond to 20% of the area of any rural property. Delineation of LR must be specified and appended to the ownership documentation of the land (Brasil, 1965). Although the Forest Code is the highest legal document relating to forest use, it has not been fully implemented, which has resulted in unplanned economic development in forested areas, and the creation of a culture where forest is devalued (Hirakuri, 2003). From 1993 to 2006, Decree of Law 750 has delineated the domains of Atlantic Forest and prohibited vegetation destruction where forests were classified as “pristine” forest, 50 or in “medium”, or “advanced” stages of regeneration (Table 3.1). The decree of law allowed exploitation of ‘pioneer forests’ or forests in the initial stages of regeneration (Brasil, 1993). The criteria for these different classifications of regeneration stages are defined by state and federal rules (Secretaria de Meio Ambiente and Ibama, 1994). In early 2006 the Brazilian senate approved the “Atlantic Forest law”, which is an upgrade of the Decree of Law, and began to take effect in 2007. According to this law, the regeneration stage will continue as the single criterion determining what types of exploitation are permissible, but a “medium stage of regeneration” will place less restriction on forest conversion than “advanced stage” and “pristine forest”. The article 14 of the law states that forests in medium stage of regeneration can be developed in the interest of social and public utility (Brasil, 2006). Penalties for not respecting the Forest Code and the Decree of Law 750 normally consisted of payment of fines or a commitment to restore a specified amount of forest, but these are only occasionally enforced and are generally not effective in reducing exploitation and conserving forest (Tabarelli et al., 2005). In addition to the preservation of the forest for its biodiversity, protection is also important to ensure the long term provision of ecosystem services, such as watershed protection. Forests on riparian lands retain water, as well as sediments and nutrients from surface water and groundwater draining agricultural areas within catchments (Turner et al., 2001). The values of these services are not accounted for by the present systems of ownership and management. Owners of forested land have a variety of land use options, many of which are economically more attractive than leaving the land under forest cover. A clear delineation of management unit boundaries and forest preservation areas is necessary to ensure that forest ecological functions and values of riparian areas are maintained within the agricultural landscape (Thenail and Baudry, 2005). However, several developing countries have limited capacity to generate spatial information for adequate forest policies and legislation (FAO, 2005). The lack of consensus in geographic interpretation of forest legislation can be an important obstacle for the maintenance of ecosystems. In Chile, for instance, judicial decisions related to conservation are hindered by conflicts of interpretation of laws and by difficulties to express the laws geographically (Pellet et al., 2005). Similar problems 51 can occur in attempts to enforce the laws to protect remnants of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Therefore, the ability to unambiguously identify areas to which forest laws apply and, consequently, where they are being ignored or flouted, is a necessary precondition for not only the enforcement of regulations, but also to inform decision making and policy on future land use. Geographic information systems based on remote sensing combined with forest surveys provides an effective tool for associating clearly-defined areas with relevant forest laws and management action, and therefore a foundation for improving forest law enforcement and governance (Kishor & Rosenbaum, 2003). In Sumatra, a time series analysis of land use maps in GIS allowed the production of habitat threat maps for prioritisation of areas for management and conservation (Linkie et al., 2004). These approaches are particularly relevant in areas where land use is changing rapidly, as they allow for the rapid update of land use changes. One such landscape that is undergoing rapid change, and where the quantity and quality of forest cover is as yet poorly defined, comprises the watersheds surrounding the Atibainha Reservoir, in the eastern region of the State of São Paulo (Fadini and Carvalho, 2004). The construction of the reservoir in 1973 severely impacted local agriculturalists because most of the fertile soils were flooded (Rodrigues, 1999). Since then, they appear to have discounted environmental legislation in their land use decisions. Land pressures are exacerbated by the arrival of people from nearby large towns such as São Paulo and Guarulhos. These people are attracted by the picturesque setting formed by the reservoir and the opportunities to buy land for building residences. Despite current environmental regulations, the vulnerability of remnants of Atlantic Forest may be increasing due to the consequent expansion of urbanized areas. Using a combination of remote-sensing and ground-truthing, this study aims to: i) evaluate the extent to which legislation to protect forest remnants has been respected in the Atibainha Reservoir region; ii) evaluate the legal vulnerability of Atlantic Forest landscapes to degradation in non-protected areas; and iii) provide recommendations for research-based policy making. 52 3.2 Methods 3.2.1 Study area The Atibainha Reservoir, in eastern São Paulo State, is one of four interconnected lakes that supply water for 60% of the people who live in greater São Paulo (Braga, 2001). The study area comprises the catchments that surround this lake (Figure 3.1). The total area is 9,647 hectares, which includes 2,006 hectares of the reservoir. Native forest, eucalyptus plantations, and pastures are the main land uses, although there has been increasing urbanization in the region through the arrival of new residents that come from nearby large towns. Figure 3.1 Study area, composed by catchments that surround the Atibainha reservoir in eastern São Paulo State. 53 3.2.2 Mapping forests, streams, reservoir and catchments A map of the land-use mosaic was created using stereoscopy (that gives a sense of depth to 2-dimensional images) and visual interpretation of 1:20,000-scale aerial photographs taken in 2003. The mosaic was composed of pastures, eucalyptus plantations, and native primary and secondary forest. Some variation in texture was found in the native forests due to variations in their stage of development. Using ground truthing, we were able to verify that older forest stands had a ‘rougher’ texture in the stereoscopically observed aerial photographs than younger forests. We selected two forest fragments that were very different to each other in terms of the size of their canopies and in their corresponding texture in the aerial photographs. These were used as reference-types for stands classified as ‘young forest’ (F1) and ‘old forest’ (F2). Each of the remaining fragments of forest in the study area was classified as F1 or F2, depending on their resemblance to the reference forest types. Therefore, all the native forests in the study area were classified either as young forest (F1) or as old forest (F2). The discrimination between F1 and F2 forests was verified by groundtruthing and subsequent statistical analysis of the size and density of trees, as described below. A polygon shapefile was created in ArcMap (Esri, 2002) for managing the information of the mosaic in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Contour lines with intervals of 10 metres were digitized from topographic maps at a scale of 1:10,000 (IBGE, 1978) in ArcMap to produce a digital elevation model (DEM). The DEM was used in the ArcHydro extension of ArcMap for mapping streams and limits of the water reservoir, and for the delineation of 188 catchments. The threshold area established in ArcHydro for definition of streams was 0.25 km2, corresponding to 10,000 cells. 3.2.3 Delineation of Permanent Preservation Areas of the Forest Code The margins of water bodies and steep slopes that make up the Permanent Preservation Areas (PPA) in the study area were delineated through ArcMap, observing the following criteria determined by the Forest Code (Brasil, 1965): width of margins along streams of 30 metres, width of margins around the reservoir in urban areas of 30 metres, width of margins around the reservoir outside urban areas of 100 metres, steep slopes that correspond to a slope greater than 45o, and hilltop boundaries defined as the contour line corresponding to the highest point minus 1/3 of the difference between the highest point and the lowest point of the hill. Once these criteria were mapped in the GIS it was 54 possible to allocate any point within the study area into one of the following eight categories of legal restriction for deforestation: i) steep slopes (> 45o), ii) stream margins, iii) reservoir margins, iv) overlapping stream and reservoir margins, v) hilltops, vi) stream margins on steep slopes, vii) reservoir margins on steep slopes, and viii) no restriction for deforestation related to PPA. The proportion of forest cover was calculated for each category that corresponded to these legal restrictions in each catchment. 3.2.4 Delineation of areas targeted by Decree of Law 750 and by Atlantic Forest law Within the list of parameters recommended by State and Federal governments to determine regeneration stages of Atlantic Forest fragments (Secretaria de Meio Ambiente and Ibama, 1994), quantitative and measurable criteria were selected to delineate areas protected by Decree of Law 750 and by the Atlantic Forest Law. These criteria are based on the height and diameter at breast height (DBH) of trees, and are presented in Table 3.1. Table 3.1. Criteria based on height and diameter of trees determined by official rules of the State and Federal governments to classify the stage of regeneration as “Advanced”, “Medium”, “Initial”, and “Pioneer” (Secretaria de Meio Ambiente and Ibama, 1994). Obs: criteria for definition of high, medium and low amplitude of diameters are not expressed in the official rules of government. Stage of regeneration Height of trees Diameter of trees Advanced Greater than 10 m Higher than 20 cm, with high amplitude Medium From 4 to 12 m Up to 20 cm, with moderate amplitude and predominance of small diameters Initial From 1.5 to 8 m Up to 10 cm, with low amplitude Pioneer Up to 2 m Around 2 cm Ten areas of F1 forest and ten of F2 forest were randomly selected for field sampling of vegetation. The quarter point method (Martins, 1993) was used to collect data for the following variables: height of trees, diameter of their trunks at 1.30m above ground, and distance of the trees from the centre of the quadrants. Twenty sampling points were established in each area. Each sampling point was composed of four quadrants, giving 80 quadrants and 80 measured trees. Multiple logistic regression analysis (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 1989; Quinn & Keough, 2002) was performed using Statistica (StatSoft, 2001) for evaluating the variables 55 mentioned above as predictors of the classes of forests F1 and F2. When significant results were found in the logistic regression model the individual effects of the predictor variables were assessed subsequently through removing each of these variables from the regression model. Mean heights and diameters of trees were calculated for the classes F1 and F2 in order to identify which stage of regeneration (Table 3.1) the sampled forests fitted. 3.2.5 Delineation of scenarios of legal vulnerability Spatial delineation of forests and areas targeted by the Forest Code and by the Federal Decree of Law 750 were overlapped using ArcMap to determine the extent to which legislation has been respected as well as to map the vulnerability of forest to conversion to other land uses as a function of legislative environment and land uses. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to test whether the proportion of forested areas within catchments differs among the various legal restrictions associated with slope, proximity to water, and hilltops. 56 3.3 Results 3.3.1 Permanent Preservation Areas Of the 7,641 hectares of the study area, 3,058 hectares (i.e. 40%) are classified as PPA due to one or more of the following characteristics: hilltops, slope greater than 45o, less than 30 metres from margins of streams, less than 100 metres from the water reservoir in rural areas, and less than 30 metres from the water reservoir in urban areas. However, only 1,546 hectares (50.6%) of these PPA areas are covered by native forest (Figure 3.2). Figure 3.2 Deforested PPAs on margins of streams, margins of rivers and hilly slopes. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) indicated that mean proportion of forest cover within the catchments is significantly different (F=5.98; df = 7; p < 0.01) among areas based on the different legal restrictions on deforestation (slope, proximity to water bodies, and hilltop locations), with the lowest area under forest cover at 47.6% being reservoir 57 margins and the highest at 71.1% being steep reservoir margin locations, and therefore falling under two legislation categories (Figure 3.3). 0.85 0.80 Forest Cover 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 Res NR Riv + Res Top Riv Decl Riv + Decl Res + Decl Figure 3.3 Mean proportion of forest cover in each category of legal restriction for deforestation. (“Res” = reservoir margins; “NR” = areas that do not fit legal restrictions to deforestation; “Riv+Res” = stream margins overlapping reservoir margins; “Top” = hilltops; “Riv” = stream margins; “Decl” = declivity higher than 45o; “Riv+Decl” = stream margins overlapping declivities higher than 45o; “Res+Decl” = reservoir margins overlapping declivity higher than 45o). Lines represent standard error. To provide an indication of where the largest differences lie, we conducted a post hoc pairwise comparisons using Tukey’s HSD test (Table 3.2). Although the lowest mean forest cover is observed on reservoir margins, it differs significantly only from other legal restrictions that include steep slopes. Forest cover on land that lies outside PPA designations and for which there is therefore no legal restriction based on the Forest Code, does not differ significantly from areas to which certain legal restrictions apply, namely: hilltops; stream margins; slopes > 45o; and stream margins overlapping reservoir margins. Steeply sloping reservoir margins have significantly more forest cover than hilltops, stream margins, and stream margins overlapping reservoir margins. Table 3.2 Pairwise post hoc comparisons (Tukey Test) among restrictions to deforestation within PPAs MEAN FOREST COVER (%) LEGAL RESTRICTION Margin of reservoir No restriction Margin of streams + reservoir Hilltops Margin of streams Slope > 45o Margin of streams + slope > 45o Margin of reservoir + slope > 45o 47,6 Margin of reservoir 47,9 No restriction 1,000 n.s. 49,9 Margin of streams + reservoir 1,000 1,000 52,4 53,6 64,6 71,1 0,044 0,052 Margin of streams + slope > 45o 0,011 0,013 Margin of reservoir + slope > 45o 0,000 0,000 0,982 0,213 0,063 0,001 1,000 0,559 0,740 0,221 0,349 0,997 0,005 0,011 0,540 0,916 0,939 Margin of streams 0,757 0,799 0,999 Hilltops 60,8 Slope > 45o n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. S n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. S S n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. S S S S S n.s. 0,956 n.s. Significance values: *for P < 0.05; NS, not significant. 58 3.3.2 Areas protected by legislation according to stage of regeneration The results of the multiple logistic regression model suggest overall significant effects of the predictor variables on the classification of the forests as F1 or F2 (x2 = 27.52, df = 3, p < 0.01). Through the subsequent removal of each of the predictor variables from the regression model significant effects were found of diameter of trunks (dif = 5.58, p = 0.02), height of trees (dif = 12.41, p < 0.01), and distance from the trees to the centre of the quadrants (dif = 0.97, p = 0.03) in the classification of F1 and F2 forests. These results verify the validity of our visual classification of the aerial photographs and stereoscopy for distinguishing both classes of forests. The mean diameter of trees calculated for the sampled forests varied from 10.7 cm to 17.1 cm and the mean height varied from 8.7 m to 12.2 m. The means calculated for forests F1 and F2 are presented in Table 3.3. According to the criteria of Table 3.1 and the mean values, both F1 and F2 forests are classified as being in medium stage of regeneration. Therefore these forests have been protected by the Decree of Law 750 until 2006. Table 3.3. Mean diameters and heights of trees for forests F1 and F2. Diameter Classes of Forests Height Mean Standard deviation Mean Standard deviation F1 13.64 cm 1.77 9.88 m 0.63 F2 15.17 cm 1.22 11.34 m 0.59 3.3.3 Current legal vulnerability to deforestation Twenty four land classifications can be distinguished in the study area when spatial information about forest cover, classes of vegetation, and legal restrictions determined by Forest Code and Decree of Law 750 are overlapped. The areas occupied by each land classification according to these characteristics are presented in Table 3.4. There are 2,975 hectares of F1 forest and 488 hectares of F2 forest outside PPA, i.e. without the protection by the Forest Code. Legal protection of these forests is composed only by the Atlantic Forest Law. The 488 hectares of F1 forest outside PPA may be the most vulnerable to degradation because their physiognomy is more easily misinterpreted and classified as an earlier stage of regeneration, whereas the F2 forests are apparently more developed. 59 Areas of F1 forest and forest F2 within PPA, i.e. protected both by the Forest Code and by the Atlantic Forest Law, total 1,516 hectares. The 1,146 hectares without forest outside PPA constitute the areas without restrictions for agriculture or any other land use or economic activity. The cleared areas within PPA are composed mainly by margins of reservoir (731 hectares) and margins of streams (494 hectares). The distribution of forests within and outside the limits of “PPA” is plotted on the map in Figure 3.2. Table 3.4 Total area of forested and non forested lands outside PPAs or fitting different combinations of PPA land use restrictions. Forest cover Scenarios F1 1 F2 X 3 X Total X 731 X 7 X 11 X 14 X X X X X X 21 24 403 X 20 23 X X 18 22 376 X 17 19 X X 15 16 494 X 14 X X X X Area (hectares) X X 12 Outside PPA 226 X 11 Hilltops X X 9 High declivity 177 X 8 13 Margins of reservoir X X 6 10 Margins of streams X 5 7 Without forest X 2 4 Permanent Preservation Area (PPA) designation X 75 X 125 X 191 X 2975 X 488 X 1146 X X 45 X X 49 X X 75 X X 4 X X 6 X X 6 X X 5 X X 7 X X 5 7641 60 3.4 Discussion A high proportion (39.7%) of the study area is composed of PPAs due to the predominance of hilly slopes in the region and the abundance of water bodies. If the rules of PPAs established by the Forest Code were entirely respected, more than 3,000 hectares of native forest should exist in these areas. However, only 50% of the PPAs are currently occupied by forest. The non-forested PPAs indicate that the Forest Code has not been respected since its establishment in 1965, due to two possible decisions on land management. The first is removal of forests. The second is preventing forest regeneration in areas that are legally designated for forest cover. It is important to reinforce that delineation of PPA is not conditioned by the presence of forest, and the period from 1965 to 2006 would be sufficient for the forests to regenerate if the PPAs were recognized and respected. The PPAs on margins of the Atibainha reservoir were created only when the reservoir was built, in 1973. Therefore, the forest should have had time to regenerate in these areas from 1973 to 2006. Historical analysis is needed to investigate which of these land management decisions can be attributed to the negligence of the Forest Code in each PPA. The weak influence of Forest Code on land use is also evident when the proportion of forest cover is compared within and outside PPA areas. Forest cover in PPA areas identified by only one of the four categories (proximity to streams, proximity to the reservoir, hilltops and steep slope) is not significantly different to that of areas that are not under PPA. The presence of forests outside PPA may be due to observance of the “legal reserve” regulations – the obligation to maintain forest reserves on 20% of the area of rural properties. However, there is almost no legal reserve officially recognized in the rural properties in the region, and no enforcement and therefore little motivation to adhere to the regulations. Legal restrictions on non-forest land uses within PPAs, even if respected, do not necessarily ensure continued proper ecological functioning of the forest ecosystems. For instance, the width of margins of streams under the PPA is sometimes below the optimal riparian margin width in forests for sediment yield (Sparovek et al., 2002). Even so, strict observance of these restrictions would represent a meaningful 61 improvement in the level of protection of both forest and the services they provide, with the addition of 1,516 hectares of forest on hilly slopes, hilltops or margins of water bodies within the 7,641 hectares of catchments that surround the reservoir. The high rates of deforestation in PPAs can also be attributed to the historical freedom of management of private lands. The Brazilian land use policies favour the maintenance of ecological functions of ecosystems mostly in public protected areas, whereas private lands are highly suitable to degradation. Nevertheless, in some countries such as the USA the legal system has been evolving to consider ecological requirements in the management of private lands. This evolution in land policies is due to the increasing recognition of ecosystems in private lands as communal goods whose preservation depends on the integration of private and public interests (Keiter, 1998). Regulations of land use might not be properly enforced (or difficult to enforce) if the private interests are neglected, and if opportunity costs are not recognised. In some countries in Africa, Asia and Europe forest and conservation laws have negatively affected rural livelihoods by restricting income opportunities and access to services, health and food (Kaimowitz, 2003). Consequently, alternative strategies to commandand-control mechanisms are necessary for promoting the engagement of landholders in conservation of ecosystems. In Australia, command-and-control policies have been giving way to market-based mechanisms, education, voluntary initiatives, and partnerships among public and private sectors (Cocklin et al., 2007). One important and widely recognised example of compensatory and partially market-based conservation mechanism is Costa Rica’s payment for ecosystem services programme, where the legal system allows for land owners to be compensated for the provision of ecosystem services in forest areas (Pagiola, 2004). Similar approaches are clearly applicable to the Atibainha watersheds. Land owners are legally bound to protect forest areas yet receive no compensation for forgone opportunity costs, despite that the forest likely provides important watershed services benefiting the water company and aesthetic and recreational services to other users of the landscape. It is therefore not difficult to conceive of a payment for ecosystem service scheme in this region, but a necessary requirement is the verification of existing land cover and the ability to track changes in land cover with high resolution in a cost effective manner. 62 The use of remote sensing and GIS described here provides a baseline and methodology for this requirement. Currently, however, undesirable changes in land use are more likely to continue in the Atibainha region as providers and consumers of ecosystem services are not clearly recognised and compensated. For instance, upstream forest owners are not paid by downstream farmers who benefit from the maintenance of the forest for presumed water regulation and erosion control services. Therefore creditors and debtors of ecosystem services are likely to be found in the region, and the failure to recognise these actors may lead to land use conflicts. The reasons for non-enforcement of laws in the region of the lake Atibainha go even beyond the failure to recognise private interests or the providers and beneficiaries of ecosystem services. The construction of the reservoir – in the 1970s during the military dictatorship – had negative social impacts on local inhabitants and may have further contributed to the disrespect for environmentally sound use of the surrounding land (Rodrigues, 1999). Recognising that private owners of forest land are providing a service to others, and compensating them for this service, is likely to go a long way towards healing some of the social wounds inflicted during this time. Previous studies revealed that one third of the 105 largest cities of the world obtain a significant proportion of their drinking water from protected areas recognized by the IUCN – World Conservation Union (Dudley and Stolton, 2003). More than half of the water consumed by inhabitants of the city of São Paulo originates from Atibainha reservoir, which is not surrounded by any publicly protected area, and the creation of protected areas is unlikely to be feasible in all areas surrounding the lake. In this situation, the existing Forest Code can be crucial in maintaining forest cover within the landscape, particularly in the sites most relevant for watershed conservation, but limited enforcement has been shown to limit its effectiveness, and strict enforcement is likely to create social and land-use conflicts unless appropriate compensation mechanisms are considered. Another meaningful step towards conservation would be the observance of the Atlantic Forest Law. Means of DBH (Table 3.3) indicate that both F1 and F2 classes fit the criteria of “medium stage of regeneration” as defined in Table 3.1. Nevertheless, class F1 is more likely to be susceptible to deforestation than class F2 because the smaller tree diameters and heights can result in inspectors misinterpreting its legal status and classifying the forest as “in the initial stage of regeneration”. This type of 63 misinterpretation has often been regarded as an important source of conflict between researchers, conservationists, government agencies and landowners when permissions for deforestation are issued (Ditt, 2002). Part of this conflict can be attributed to a failure of the translation of research-based recommendations into policy. Without the connections being made between advances in science and legal regulations about land use, conservation is not ensured (Tabarelli and Gascon, 2005). The categorisation of regeneration stages by Atlantic Forest legislation fits more readily with deterministic vegetation succession. Succession is, however, rarely deterministic and in tropical forests proceeds along a less predictable and more dynamic process. It is therefore necessary to adopt innovative approaches for exploring spatial heterogeneity and to analyze its effects on ecological processes (Turner et al., 2001; Pickett and Cadenasso, 1995). Considering the legislation, current land uses and the conflicts of misinterpretation described above, there are three main scenarios for deforestation which are likely to be found in the region. In ascending order of vulnerability these are: forests within the boundaries of PPAs; F2 forests outside PPAs; and F1 forests outside PPAs. The first scenario is considered the least vulnerable to degradation, because restrictions of Forest Code overlap with restrictions of the Decree of Law 750. The second scenario is of intermediate risk because only restrictions of the Atlantic Forest Law are applied, though the stage of regeneration that confers protection under the Forest Code is relatively unambiguous. Finally, the third scenario is most vulnerable because only restrictions of the Atlantic Forest Law are applied and there is considerable potential for misinterpretation of the regeneration stage. 64 3.5 Conclusion Although conceptual failures are found in the Forest Code and in the Decree of Law 750 (now replaced by the Atlantic Forest Law), non-observance of legislation, and failure of its enforcement, are perhaps even more serious than lack of proper rules. It is better to promote efforts on strategies to effectively implement the Forest Code and the Atlantic Forest Law rather than creating new laws. Conservation strategies and policies can be improved through the following approaches: • Protection of forests within PPA in any stage of regeneration (Figure 3.2) against any source of disturbance such as burning or cattle grazing; • An improved system of assessment and designation of forests to their respective regeneration stages, that takes account of the ecological realities of dynamic and complex successional trajectories, while providing an unambiguous but simple method to determine the ecological or biodiversity value of forest fragments; • Incentives for forest recovery, prioritizing non-forested PPAs as indicated on map in Figure 3.2, need to be provided to promote forest regeneration at these sites to deliver ecosystem benefits in the form of water and soil protection; • Research about adequacy of criteria established by the Forest Code, focusing on services of forest ecosystems related both to watershed and to biodiversity conservation; • Decision-making processes that recognise ecosystem values and services, and promote mechanisms by which providers of ecosystem services are compensated by recipients of the benefits of such services. 65 3.6 References Braga B.P.F., 2001. Integrated urban water resources management: A challenge into the 21st century. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 17(4):581-99. Brasil, 1965. Codigo Florestal Brasileiro: lei 4771 de 15 de setembro de 1965. Câmara dos Deputados, Brasília. Brasil, 1993. Decreto 750 de 10 de fevereiro de 1993. Governo Federal, Brasília. Brasil, 2006. Lei da Mata Atlântica: lei Federal 11428 de 22 de dezembro de 2006. Câmara dos Deputados, Brasília. Brasil, São Paulo, 1994. Resolução conjunta 01, de 17 de fevereiro de 1994. Intituto Brasileiro do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renováveis & Secretaria de Meio Ambiente do Estado de São Paulo, Brasília. Cocklin C., Mautner N., Dibden J., 2007. Public policy, private landholders: Perspectives on policy mechanisms for sustainable land management. Journal of Environmental Management, 85:986-998. Cullen L., Alger K., Rambaldi D.M., 2005. Land Reform and Biodiversity Conservation in Brazil in the 1990s: Conflict and the Articulation of Mutual Interests. Conservation Biology, 19(3):747-55. Ditt E.H., 2002. Fragmentos Florestais no Pontal do Paranapanema. Ed. Annablume, São Paulo. Dudley N., Stolton S., 2003. Running pure: the importance of forest protected areas to drinking water. Research report for the World Bank/WWF Alliance for Forest Conservation and Sustainable Use, U.K. ESRI, 2002. ArcMap version 8.3. ESRI, Redlands. Fadini A.A.B., Carvalho P.F., 2004. Os Usos da Água do Moinho: Um estudo na Bacia Hidrográfica do Ribeirão do Moinho. Annals of the II Encontro Nacional da Associaço Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Ambiente e Sociedade. ANPPAS, Campinas. 66 FAO, 2005. FAO Forestry Paper 145: Best practices for improving law compliance in the forest sector. FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Hirakuri S.R., 2003. Can law save the forest? Lessons from Finland and Brazil. CIFOR, Bogor Barat. Hosmer D.W., Lemeshow S., 1989. Applied logistic regression. New York: Wiley. IBGE, 1978. Cartas topográficas do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, Rio de Janeiro. Kaimowitz D., 2003. Forest law enforcement and rural livelihoods. International Forestry Review, 5(3):199-210. Keiter R.B., 1998. Ecosystems and the law: toward an integrated approach. Ecological Applications, 8(2):332-341. Kishor N.M., Rosenbaum K.L., 2003. Indicators to monitor progress of forest law enforcement and governance initiatives to control illegal practices in the forest sector. International Forestry Review, 5:211-218. Linkie M., Smith R.J., Leader-Willians N., 2004. Mapping and predicting deforestation patterns in the lowlands of Sumatra. Biodiversity and Conservation, 13: 1809-1818. Martins F.R., 1993. Estrutura de Uma Floresta Mesófila. Ed. Unicamp, Campinas. Morellato L.P.C., Haddad C.F.B., 2000. Introduction: The Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Biotropica, 32(4B):786-92. Myers N., Mittermeier R.A., Mittermeier C.G., Da Fonseca G.A.B., Kent J., 2000. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature, 403(6772):853-8. Pagiola S., 2004. Paying for Water Services in Central America: Learning from Costa Rica. In: Pagiola S., Bishop J., Landell-Mills N. Selling Forest Environmental Services: Market-based Mechanisms for Conservation and Development. Earthscan, London. 67 Pellet P.F., Ugarte E., Osorio E.M., Herrera F.D., 2005. Biodiversity Conservation in Chile, legally enough? The need for mapping the law before deciding. Revista Chilena de Historia Natural, 78: 125-141. Pickett S.T.A., Cadenasso, M.L., 1995. Landscape Ecology: Spatial Heterogeneity in Ecological Systems. Science, 269: 331-334. Quinn G., Keough M., 2002. Experimental Design and Data Analysis for Biologists. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Rodrigues C.M.C., 1999. Águas aos olhos de Santa Luzia. Ed. Unicamp, Campinas. Secretaria de Meio Ambiente and Ibama, 1994. Resolução conjunta SMA Ibama/SP Nº 1, de 17 de fevereiro de 1994. Sparovek G., Ranieri S.B.L., Gassner A., De-Maria I.C., Schnug E., Santos R.F., Joubert A., 2002. A conceptual framework for the definition of the optimal width of riparian forests. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 90, 169-175. StatSoft, 2001. Statistica 6.0. Statsoft, Tulsa. Tabarelli M., Gascon C., 2005. Lessons from Fragmentation Research: Improving Management and Policy Guidelines for Biodiversity Conservation. Conservation Biology, 19(3):734-9. Tabarelli M., Pinto L.P., Silva J.M.C., Hirota M., Bede L., 2005. Challenges and Opportunities for Biodiversity Conservation in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Conservation Biology, 19(3):695-700. Thenail C., Baudry J., 2005. Farm Riparian Land Use and Management: Driving Factors and Tensions Between Technical and Ecological Functions. Environmental Management, 36(5):640-53. Turner M.G., Gardner R.H., O’Neill R.V., 2001. Landscape Ecology in Theory and Practice. Springer-Verlag. New York. 68 CHAPTER 4 LAND USE CHANGE AND AVAILABILITY OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN THE BRAZILIAN ATLANTIC FOREST 4.1 Introduction Most of the benefits that humans obtain from the conversion of forest ecosystems into other land uses are readily noticed and can be easily quantified. For instance, the profits obtained through cattle ranching indicate benefits associated to the establishment of pasture in areas that were previously occupied by forest. However, the services provided by natural ecosystems to humans, such as climate regulation or protection of watershed, and the impacts of forest conversion on the availability of these services are normally poorly understood (Silvano et al., 2005). Forecasting the consequences of landscape changes on these services is necessary for the development of innovative mechanisms that may reverse the current levels of habitat loss and fragmentation of ecosystems (Tabarelli et al., 2005). This is relevant to the lands within the former limits of the Atlantic Forest biome in southeastern Brazil, where the great São Paulo with its 19 million inhabitants is located (Silvano et al., 2005). Inappropriate land uses represent severe threats to Cantareira System, which is the main water supply system of São Paulo (Braga, 2001). The Atibainha reservoir, in the municipality of Nazaré Paulista, is one of the four lakes that compose the Cantareira system. Since the 1970’s, when this reservoir was built, the picturesque landscape, formed by the surrounding land with its combination of hilly slopes, remnants of Atlantic Forest and abundance of water, has been attracting people from neighbouring towns and cities such as São Paulo who wish to escape from metropolitan environments. The landscape has been changing as a consequence of the arrival of both visitors and new residents in the region. Currently, the main land uses are pasture, eucalyptus plantations, and native forests (Fadini & Carvalho, 2004). Among the many ecosystem services related to the presence of Atlantic Forest, some that can be quantified can serve as parameters for assessing the impacts of landscape 69 conversion. Four services are considered in the current study: mitigation of climate change, mitigation of sediment delivery into the reservoir, purification of water, and maintenance of soil fertility. Estimates of these services under different land use scenarios are necessary for driving future land use decisions that can maximize their availability. 4.1.1 Carbon stocks in forest ecosystems and mitigation of climate change Estimates of the capacity of forest ecosystems to sequester and store carbon in biomass are helpful for quantifying their potential contribution for climate change mitigation because they indicate how much carbon would be released in the atmosphere if the forests were not present. Four main carbon pools may be considered in such ecosystems: above ground plant biomass, below ground biomass, soils, and standing litter. The first of these is the most easily manipulated carbon pool in carbon storage forest projects (MacDicken, 1997). It is normally assumed that the carbon stock corresponds to 50 % of plant biomass (Brown, 1984). In several studies the above ground plant biomass in native forests has been estimated from data obtained in field surveys of vegetation, including: number of trees per area, species, wood density, diameters of trees, and height of trees (Brown et al., 1989; Burger & Delitti, 1999; Melo & Durigan, 2006; IPEF, 2006). Estimating biomass and carbon stocks in agriculture and forestry plantations is less complex than in natural tropical forests. One reason is the reduced number of species with their respective wood densities to be considered. A second reason is the uniform patterns of size and spatial distribution of the plants. Finally, in agriculture and forestry plantations it is easier to collect, dry, and weigh the plants for calculating their biomass. Some studies have been done in South America to estimate biomass and carbon stocks in eucalyptus plantations (Paixão et al., 2006; Soares & Oliveira, 2002; Ramos, 2001). Estimates of carbon stocks obtained in these studies and biomass equations for native forests encountered in the studies mentioned previously are useful for quantifying the services of climate mitigation provided by each of these land uses in heterogeneous landscapes. 4.1.2 Preventing sedimentation of the Atibainha reservoir Models that predict erosion and sediment yield can be used for assessing effects of land management on soil and water. One of the most used models is the universal soil loss 70 equation –USLE (Bacchi et al., 2003). The input parameters required by USLE are: rainfall erosivity factor, soil erodibility factor, index of slope length, slope steepness index, a cover management factor, and a conservation practice factor. Results are expressed as soil erosion rate per unit of area (Renardt et al., 1997). An important limitation of USLE is that it does not predict deposition and sediment yields (Croke & Nethery, 2006). This limitation is overcome by using the modified universal soil loss equation – MUSLE (Williams, 1975), which was developed subsequently and has been used for estimating sediment deposition in catchments. The parameters used by MUSLE are the same of the USLE, with the exception of the rainfall erosivity factor which is replaced by the runoff factor. The runoff factor is composed of the volume of runoff and the peak flow rate (Chaves, 1991). Examples of applicability of MUSLE include a study carried out in the Pipiripau watershed, near Brasilia, that revealed effects of land management on sediment yield (Chaves & Piau, 2006). That study is an indication that MUSLE can be used as a tool for determining the extent of losses in the service played by forests of mitigating sediment delivery when they are replaced by other land uses in catchments. 4.1.3 Purification of water Several studies demonstrate effects of land use on the quality of water (Johnson et. al, 1997; Quinn & Stroud, 2002; Shineni, 2005; Allan, 2004). A possible way of assessing the ability of a landscape to provide clean water is through the chemical analysis of the water obtained from systems within it. Parameters normally used for analysis of water include pH, alkalinity, and nutrients. Ph is a measure of the hydrogen ion activity in the water and normally varies between 6.5 and 8.5 in non polluted areas. Alkalinity expresses the buffering capacity of water pH, or the capacity of bases to neutralize acids (Cooperrider et al., 1986). Nutrients such as nitrite, nitrate and orthophosphate are commonly measured as they are more concentrated in predominantly agricultural and urban catchments compared with forested catchments (Johnson et al., 1997). Therefore, determining the relationship between land use and these chemical parameters is a way to quantify the services played by forests in water purification. 71 4.1.4 Maintenance of soil fertility Soil fertility has received much attention due to its importance for agricultural productivity (Pulleman et al., 2000). However, fertility is not just important for agriculture purposes. Humans obtain many other benefits from the maintenance of soil fertility. Biogeochemical processes and elemental cycles that occur in the soils of both cultivated lands and natural forests depend on their fertility (CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, 2003). Nitrogen is the nutrient that plants most require, followed by Potassium and Phosphorus (Van-Raij, 1991; Zhang et al., 2007). Mineralization of organic matter by micro organisms in the soil produces ammonium and nitrate, the most important available forms of nitrogen for plants. One of the main roles of Nitrogen in plants is the formation of proteins that are used as enzymes in metabolic processes. Potassium activates enzymatic functions for plant growth. Its availability is highly influenced by soil moisture, due to its high solubility. Phosphorus is found in natural systems in the form of phosphate. This nutrient is necessary for the development of roots and for the formation of fruits and seeds (Van-Raij, 1991). Land use change that cause soil fertility to decline will have knock-on effects for other ecosystem services (Reid et al., 2005). The impacts on the life of plants are reflected in the services associated with the forest such as carbon storage, watershed protection, and ecotourism, among others. Procedures for the chemical analysis of soil were originally developed for the purpose of determining fertiler and lime recommendations in agriculture but can equally well be used for evaluating the effects of land management. To produce these recommendations, agronomists often follow the guidelines of the “Technical Bulletin 100” issued by the Agronomic Institute of Campinas (Van-Raij et al., 1997). The most common parameters considered are organic matter, pH, cation exchange capacity, and levels of macro and micronutrients (Van-Raij, 1991; Van-Raij et al., 1997). They have already been applied in studies for evaluating responses of soil quality to land management (Garcia_montiel et al., 2000; Krishnaswamy & Richter, 2002; Sauer & Meek, 2003; Schipper & Sparling, 2000). Therefore, these parameters can be useful for studies of ecosystem services that depend on soil fertility. 72 The objectives of this study are to: 1) quantify the ecosystem services that could be provided in scenarios comprising each of the current main land uses; 2) determine the spatial distribution of ecosystem services in the current land use scenarios; and 3) quantify the impacts of land use changes on the availability of ecosystem services. 73 4.2 Methodology 4.2.1 Study area The study area includes 188 catchments that surround the Atibainha reservoir. They occupy 25% of the municipality of Nazaré Paulista and less than 1% of the municipality of Piracaia. The total area excluding the lake is 7,624 hectares. There are approximately 200 streams narrower than 2 metres in these catchments, flowing to the reservoir. Steep slopes are predominant in the region, with altitudes varying from 785 metres above sea level, at the margins of the reservoir, to 1,160 metres at the hilltops. The “argissolo vermelho-amarelo” (arenic hapludult) is the soil encountered in most of the study area. The “latossolo vermelho-amarelo” (humic hapludox) can also be found but over a smaller area (Oliveira et al., 1999). Fragments of Atlantic forest are the main land use, occupying 46% of the area, followed by pastures (27%), eucalyptus forests (10%), and other uses (17%). Most of the native forests are secondary and older than 15 years, with canopies taller than 10 metres. Cattle are grazed in the pastures mostly for the production of milk on small farms with low productivity and low technology employed. Eucalyptus plantation is one the most profitable activities in the region and has been expanded on small properties (Fadini & Carvalho, 2004). 4.2.2 Mapping ecosystem services and scenario analysis An analysis of the different land use scenarios was used to determine how the availability of ecosystem services is affected by changes in land use. The ecosystem services were quantified and mapped in the study area for the current land use scenario (S1) and for four possible future land use scenarios (S2, S3, S4, and S5), described in table 4.1. These future scenarios represent homogeneous landscapes that could occur 30 years into the future, i.e. in 2036, resulting from the maximum expansion of each of the four main land uses (native forest, eucalyptus, pasture, and urban area/soil exposed). While these are not expected to be realistic future outcomes, they are presented here by way of comparison. Each of the ecosystem services required a specific method of assessment as described below. GIS layers were constructed to express results of the assessments in a georeferenced basis for further analysis of scenarios of land use change. The analysis was 74 applied to both the entire study area composed of all the catchments and to each individual catchment. Table 4.1 Land use scenarios considered in the quantification of ecosystem services Land use scenario Description S1 Heterogeneous landscape with 46 % of native forest, 27% of pastures, 10% of eucalyptus, and 9% of bare soil and/or urbanized areas S2 Homogeneous landscape with 100% of pastures S3 Homogeneous landscape with 100% of eucalyptus S4 Homogeneous landscape with 100% of native forests (F2) S5 Homogeneous landscape with 100% of exposed soil or urban areas 4.2.3 Estimation of carbon stocks The benefits of climate mitigation derived from the maintenance of carbon stocks in the trees above ground were determined for the main land uses in the study area through estimates of biomass. Four categories of land use were considered: eucalyptus; pastures/soil exposed; younger native forest (F1); and older native forest (F2). The two classes of native forests (F1 and F2) could be distinguished through visual classification of aerial photograph and stereoscopy. Field sampling of native vegetation was developed in ten areas of forest F1 and in ten areas of forest F2. The quarter point method (Martins, 1993) was used to collect data for the following variables: distance of the trees from the sampling points of the quadrants; height of trees; and diameter of their trunks at 1.30 metres above ground. Twenty sampling points were established in each area. Each sampling point was composed of four quadrants, giving 80 quadrants and 80 trees measured. The means of the data collected in each of the 20 sampled forests were used for calculating: the average area occupied by each tree, corresponding to the squared distance of the trees from the sampling points; the number of trees per area; and the average above ground volume of trees, corresponding to the product of their height by their basal area. The most appropriate threshold value of trunks’ perimeter for sampling trees that compose the canopy in the forests of the study area was considered to be 17 cm. Therefore, only trees with circumference higher than this value were measured. 75 The above ground biomass density was calculated using the equation of Brown (1997), expressed by: AGB = VOB*WD*BEF, where: AGB (t/ha) = above ground biomass; VOB (t/ha) = average above ground volume of trees per area; WD (t/m3) = wood density; BEF = biomass expansion factor. The value of wood density was assumed to be 0.6 ton/m3, as suggested by Reyes et al. (1992) for closed forests in tropical America. The biomass expansion factor was determined using the formula: BEF = Exp{3.213-0.506*Ln(BV)}, where BV = VOB/ha (m3/ha)*WD(t/m3). Finally, assuming that carbon corresponds to 50% of forest biomass (Brown, 1997), the estimated values of biomass in forests F1 and F2 were divided by 2 for determining their respective estimate of carbon stocks above ground per hectare. The capacity of eucalyptus plantations to accumulate carbon in the above ground biomass in six years, estimated by Paixao et al. (2006), is 47.7 tons per hectare. This value was used in the current study for determining to what extent eucalyptus contribute to the mitigation of climate change. For these purposes it was assumed that the eucalyptus is regularly harvested every 6 years and the accumulation of carbon in biomass is linear over the six years. Thus, the obtained average stock of carbon that is maintained in eucalyptus plantations during the cycle of 6 years is 41.66% of the estimated 47.7 tons/ha, i.e. 19.87 tons/ha. This study has focused only on the carbon stocks in the biomass of trees, therefore in pastures and in areas with soil prepared for agriculture these stocks of carbon were considered negligible. 4.2.4 Estimation of sediment delivery The Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) was used to quantify the contribution of each catchment for delivering sediments into the reservoir in the 5 land use scenarios considered. The model is expressed by the following equation (Williams, 1975): Y = [89.6*(Q*q)0.56]*K*L*S*C*P, where: Y = event sediment yield 76 Q = runoff amount q = peak runoff rate K = soil erodibility factor L = slope length factor S = slope steepness factor C = cover and management factor P = support practice factor The runoff amount (Q) was calculated for every day in a period of 20 years -- from 1984 to 2003 -- using the equation suggested by Chaves & Piau (2006), which is: “Q = {pa – 0.2*[(25400/CN) – 254]2}/{pa + 0.8*[(25400/CN)-254]}”. The curve number (CN) is is a parameter determined by hydrologic soil group, cover type, treatment, hydrologic condition and antecedent runoff condition (USDA, 1986). The values of CN adopted for pasture, eucalyptus, native forest, and urban areas were 69, 60, 43, and 82, respectively. These values are suggested by Bertoni & Lombardi Neto (1985). The values of precipitation in each day (pa) were obtained in the database of the state government, accessible through the internet (www.sigrh.sp.gov.br). The peak runoff rate (q) was calculated through the equation “q = 0.0021*Q*A/Tp, suggested by Chaves & Piau (2006), where “A” is the area of the catchment and “Tp” refers to the peak duration. The value of “Tp” is calculated through the equation “Tp = (D/2) + (L/3.28)^0.8 * {[(25400/CN)-254] + 1}^0.7 /{(1900*[y^(1/2)]}, where “D” is the duration of the precipitation, expressed in hours, “L” is the length of the catchment, and “y” is the average slope, expressed in percentage. Values of erodibility factor (K) suggested by Bertoni & Lombardi-Neto (1985) for “Podzolizados Lins e Marília, variação Lins” (K = 0.035) and “Solos de Campos do Jordão” (K = 0.015) were attributed to catchments of the study area where “argissolo vermelho-amarelo” (arenic hapludult) and “latossolo vermelho-amarelo” (humic hapludox) prevail respectively. Calculation of the slope length factor (L) was based on procedures suggested by Silva (2003) as explained below: 77 i. Topographic maps of the study area in scale 1:10.000, published by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, 1978), with altitude lines in intervals of 10 metres were digitized using ArcMap. ii. A raster digital elevation model (DEM) with cells of 10 metres was produced from the digitized altitude lines. iii. The DEM was used to produce a slope grid map with cells of 10 metres, expressing slope (s) in percentage. iv. The grid cells were classified in four intervals of slope for further attributing slope coefficient values (m), according to the following criteria: m = 0.5 (s ≥ 5%); m = 0.4 (3% ≤ s < 5%); m = 0.3 (1% ≤ s < 3%); m = 0.2 (s < 1%). v. The eight-direction pour point model (Maidment, 2002) was applied using ArcHydro – an extension of ArcMap – to produce a flow direction grid (x), with cell values of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, and 128, representing the flow of water in one of the following directions respectively: E, SE, S, SW, W, NW, N, and NE. vi. A flow accumulation grid was produced from the flow direction grid. The number of flow accumulation assigned to each pixel refers to the number of contributing pixels. vii. The values of flow accumulation were multiplied by the area of each pixel (10X10 = 100 m2) for producing a map of contribution area. viii. The map of slope length factor (L) was created by applying to each cell the equation L = [(A+D2)m+1-(A)m+1]/ [Dm+2 x m (22.13) m], where: A = contribution area; D = cell size = 10 metres; m = slope coefficient value; x = flow direction value. A grid map of slope steepness factor (S) was created using the following equation of Wischmeier & Smith (1978): S = 0.00654 * s2 + 0.0456 * s + 0.065, where s = mean slope in the catchment, expressed in percentage. The values of cover management factor (C) and support practice factor (P) utilized in this study (table 4.2) were found in the literature (Bertoni & Lombadi Neto, 2005; Wischmeier & Smith, 1978; Silva et al., 2003). 78 Table 4.2 Values of cover management factor and support practice factor adapted from Bertoni & Lombadi Neto, 2005; Wischmeier & Smith, 1978; Silva et al., 2003. Land use Cover management factor (C) Support practice factor (P) Pasture 0.01 0.4 Native forest 0.001 0.01 Reforestation 0.003 0.04 1 1 Soil exposed or urban area 4.2.5. Assessment of water quality Thirty seven streams around the Atibainha reservoir were randomly selected for assessment of water chemistry in each of the four seasons of the year. Field kits were used to collect samples of water for measurements of phosphate (PO4); nitrite (NO2-N); nitrate (NO3); alkalinity; Cl; Fe; pH; and ammonium (N-NH3). Regression analysis was used to determine the degree to which the proportion of forests, eucalyptus and pastures in the uplands influence water chemistry in streams. Considering that the width of buffer areas of streams where land use may influence water chemistry is unknown, the values of land use proportion, i.e. the independent variable, were calculated in three possible buffer zones: 30 metres, 100 metres and 200 metres around the streams. ArcMap was used to delineate these buffers and to calculate the land use proportions. 4.2.6 Assessment of variations in soil fertility Twenty areas of native forests, ten areas of pastures and ten areas of eucalyptus within the boundaries of “argissolo vermelho amarelo” (arenic hapludult) were randomly selected and sampled for assessing the effects of land use on soil fertility. The lands occupied by “latossolo vermelho-amarelo” (humic hapludox) were neglected in the assessment of soil fertility because of their relative small coverage. As previously, the native forests were divided in two groups, corresponding to two stages of development identified through stereoscopy and visual classification of aerial photographs. They were named “F1”, corresponding to areas of younger forests, and “F2” corresponding to older forests. Twenty sub-samples of soil were collected 20 meters from each other in each sampled area at two depths: from 0 to 20 cm and from 40 to 60 cm. Every group of 79 20 sub-samples was mixed for further extraction of a unique sample of each area. The samples of soil were sent to the laboratory of the Agronomic Institute of Campinas for analysis of pH, cation exchange capacity (CEC), content of organic matter, and contents of micro and macro nutrients. The methods and procedures of chemical analysis of soil adopted by the laboratory are detailed by Van-Raij (1991). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was initially used to compare means of the chemical parameters among the land uses. The Scheffé test was used for post hoc multiple comparisons when significant differences were detected in ANOVA. A GIS layer was created to indicate areas that could be distinguished by the effects of land use on soil fertility, according to the results of the multiple comparisons performed with the Scheffé test. 80 4.3 Results 4.3.1 Land use and carbon stocks The carbon storage per unit of area in each land use is illustrated in the map of figure 4.1. The total stock of carbon above ground in trees, estimated in the current land use scenario of the study area, is 328,795 tons. Of these, 125,179 tons are stored in forests F1, 187,884 tons are stored in forests F2, and 15,732 tons are stored in eucalyptus (Table 4.3). Figure 4.1 Above ground stocks of carbon in trees per unit of area, estimated for each of the main land uses in the study area. 81 Table 4.3 Carbon stocks in the main land uses around the Atibainha reservoir. Land use Area (ha) Above ground carbon stock Total above ground in trees per hectare (t/ha) carbon stock in trees (t) Younger native forest (F1) 1774.78 70.532 125,179 Older native forest (F2) 2099.78 89.478 187,884 Reforestation 794.55 19.8 15,732 Pasture 2352.96 0 0 Other uses (without forest) 622.42 0 0 Total 7,644.49 - 398,795 The total value of carbon stock in above ground biomass of trees can change to 684,014 t, 151,361 t, and 0 t in the next 30 years, if the landscape is entirely converted to native forest (F2), eucalyptus, or pasture, respectively. 4.3.2 Land use and sediment delivery in the reservoir The amounts of sediment delivered in the reservoir, estimated through MUSLE, in each of the 188 catchments in four hypothetical future homogeneous land use scenarios of urban area/exposed soil, pastures, eucalyptus, and native forests are indicated in the Appendix 4.1. The sum of these values for the entire study area is 244,520 1,483; 67; and 9 tons per year for each land use scenario, respectively. Among the land uses considered in the study, exposed soil/urban area is the least effective in preventing sediment delivery in the reservoir. Therefore, it became the reference land use scenario for determining the additional benefits associated with native and eucalyptus forests in preventing sediment delivery. The following equations were used to calculate these benefits: PSDf = ESDu – ESDf, PSDe = ESDu – ESDe, and PSDp = ESDu – ESDp, where: PSDf = additional prevention of sediment delivery by native forest; ESDu = estimated sediment delivery in catchments occupied by urban area/soil exposed; ESDp = estimated sediment delivery in catchments occupied by pasture; ESDf = estimated sediment delivery in catchments occupied by native forests; PSDe = additional prevention of sediment delivery by eucalyptus; 82 ESDe = estimated sediment delivery in catchments occupied by eucalyptus. Variations in the capacity of native forests and eucalyptus to prevent sediment delivery among catchments are shown by the differing levels in each catchment area (Appendix 4.2). The last column of this table indicates the total prevention of sediment delivery that was obtained through multiplication of the proportion of each land use within each catchment by the respective rate. The catchments are classified into six levels according to the capacity of native forests to prevent sediment delivery per unit of area (figure 4.2). Figure 4.2 Classification of the catchments according to the average prevention of sediment delivery in the reservoir per unit of area (t/ha). 4.3.3 Land use and quality of water The significant correlations detected in the regression analysis between proportion of land use and chemical parameters of water are presented in table 4.6. The percentage of 83 pasture in any of the three buffer zones considered, i.e. 30 metres, 100 metres, and 200 metres, had significant correlation (p < 0.05) with alkalinity in the summer and in the winter. Percentage of native forest in the three buffer zones had significant correlation (P < 0.05) with alkalinity in the autumn. In the winter, significant correlations (p < 0.05) were also found when buffer zones of 30 metres and 200 metres were considered. However, the low values of R2 obtained in all these cases indicate that the regressions explain a low proportion of the variation in data of alkalinity. No significant correlation was detected when considering percentage of eucalyptus as the predictor variable, neither when considering any of the other chemical parameters as the response variable. Table 4.6 Significant correlations between land use and water chemistry in buffer zones of 30m, 100m, and 200m around streams. Buffer (m) Land use Season R2 Adjusted R2 F p 30 Native forest Autumm 0.186 0.163 8.006 0.008 30 Native forest Winter 0.159 0.135 6.608 0.015 30 Pasture Summer 0.147 0.123 6.045 0.019 30 Pasture Winter 0.17 0.147 7.183 0.011 100 Native forest Autumm 0.156 0.132 6.454 0.016 100 Native forest Winter 0.194 0.171 8.433 0.006 100 Pasture Summer 0.18 0.156 7.678 0.009 100 Pasture Winter 0.176 0.152 7.478 0.01 200 Native forest Autumm 0.16 0.136 6.665 0.014 200 Native forest Winter 0.16 0.136 6.662 0.014 200 Pasture Summer 0.166 0.143 6.988 0.012 200 Pasture Winter 0.139 0.115 5.657 0.023 4.3.4 Soil fertility Results of ANOVA (table 4.7) indicate significant effect of land use on pH, cation exchange capacity, mean contents of organic matter, potassium (K), calcium (Ca), and boron (B). The effect of depth is significant for all the chemical parameters, except copper (Cu). 84 Table 4.7 Results of analysis of variance for comparing soil fertility in different land uses at different sampling depths. Effect Response SS DF MS F P variable Land use Organic matter 1914.6 3 638.2 9.721 0.000017 Depth Organic matter 13546.0 1 13546 206.335 0.000000 Land use P 71.072 3 23.691 2.1271 0.103866 Depth P 1336.613 1 1336.613 120.0114 0.000000 Land use K 3.3926 3 1.1309 4.2163 0.008232 Depth K 12.8801 1 12.8801 48.0216 0.000000 Land use Ca 361.186 3 120.395 4.5361 0.005620 Depth Ca 405.000 1 405.000 15.2591 0.000203 Land use Mg 5015.02 3 1671.67 1.47869 0.227179 Depth Mg 11068.51 1 11068.51 9.79070 0.002498 Land use B 0.034765 3 0.011588 3.257 0.026204 Depth B 0.254251 1 0.254251 71.458 0.000000 Land use Cu 1554.48 3 518.160 2.208865 0.094028 Depth Cu 382.81 1 382.812 1.631893 0.205382 Land use Fe 9090.2 3 3030.1 2.0443 0.114875 Depth Fe 97092.1 1 97092.1 65.5050 0.000000 Land use Mn 832.94 3 277.648 1.95793 0.127574 Depth Mn 3768.89 1 3768.885 26.57768 0.000002 Land use Zn 3990.32 3 1330.105 1.990585 0.122617 Depth Zn 1658.93 1 1658.931 2.482693 0.119314 Land use Ph 1.578 3 0.526 13.25 0.000000 Depth Ph 0.561 1 0.561 14.14 0.000334 Land use CEC 11199.2 3 3733.1 4.6489 0.004915 Depth CEC 59394.1 1 59394.1 73.9654 0.000000 Post hoc analysis using the Scheffé test detected significant differences only in the contents of organic matter when native forests were compared with eucalyptus and with pastures (table 4.8). No differences were found between eucalyptus and pastures, neither between the two types of forest. Therefore, the land uses can be merged in two classes related to the content of organic matter: the lands with native forest and those without native forest. The mean contents of organic matter at the depth interval of 0 to 20 cm, calculated for these classes are 55.7 g/dm3 and 42.15 g/dm3, respectively. Extrapolation 85 of these classes of organic matter to the entire study area is illustrated in the map of figure 4.3. Table 4.8 Results of post hoc analysis performed with Scheffé test for revealing influence of land use on the content of organic matter. F2 Forest F2 F1 Eucalyptus Pasture 0.929965 0.004107 0.000411 0.039985 0.006511 Forest F1 n.s. Eucalyptus s. s. Pasture s. s. n.s. Mean content of organic matter 41.500 39.778 32.000 0.919953 30.200 Figure 4.3 Mean contents of organic matter in soils occupied by native forests or other uses. The Scheffé test performed for all possible multiple comparisons of land uses for the remaining nutrients considered in this study revealed significant differences only in the content of Ca, when eucalyptus was compared with pasture (p=0.006), and in the content of B, when forest type F1 was compared with pasture (p=0.0436). 86 4.4 Discussion and conclusion Ideally, a remnant of pristine forest should be assessed in the study area in order to determine the maximum capacity of natural forests to contribute to mitigation of climate change. However, the Atlantic Forest biome has been severely disturbed by humans on the past 500 years (Dean, 1996) and no pristine forest is encountered in the region and it is therefore not possible to find a reference area to study carbon storage. Both classes of native forest that have been studied, i.e. F1 and F2, are secondary and their biomass is probably still increasing. If these forests remain untouched in the future their average carbon stock above ground may be higher than the estimated 89.5 tons/ha for forests F2. In the west of São Paulo, for instance, the carbon stock estimated in another study in the same type of forest, although it was in another type of soil, was 149 tons/ha (Melo & Durigan, 2006). Although the maximum capacity of carbon storage is unknown, results of the current study revealed that even the younger native forests are more efficient than eucalyptus and pastures in their capacity to store carbon. If the eucalyptus plantations remain untouched for a long time their stock of carbon will also probably increase and may achieve a value beyond that estimated by Paixao et al. (2006). However, considering the practices of eucalyptus plantation currently adopted in Nazaré Paulista, cycles longer than 6 years are not likely to occur. The assessments of carbon in this study were focused on above ground biomass of trees whose trunk circumference is greater than 17 centimetres. Other carbon pools like soil, roots, lianas, and small trees have not been considered, thus the complete stocks of carbon were not determined. Nevertheless, the results obtained provide an initial understanding of the potential magnitude of the contribution of each land use for mitigation of climate change. The map of land uses and carbon stocks in figure 4.1 can be used as a tool to predict the consequences of interventions in the landscape. Deforestation of one hectare in areas of forests F1 and F2 for the establishment of pastures, residences, or other non forest uses may result in the release of more than 70 to 89 tons of carbon into the atmosphere, respectively. Replacement of one hectare of eucalyptus by pasture may contribute to climate change through releasing more than 19 tons of carbon in the atmosphere. The positive impacts towards climate change that are expected from the replacement of one hectare of pasture by native forest is more than 89 tons of carbon removed from 87 atmosphere over a period of 30 years, and when replaced by eucalyptus is more than 19 tons over a period of 6 years. The order in which the main types of land uses considered (native forests, eucalyptus, pastures, and exposed areas) contribute to the mitigation of climate change is the same as that for the services associated to prevention of sediment delivery in the reservoir. If the entire study area were occupied by native forests a total of 9 tons of sediment yield would be expected every year. However, occupation of the entire area by pastures would be more detrimental to the storage of water in the reservoir as the estimated amount of sediment delivered per year would be about 1,500 tons. Effects of occupation of all the area by eucalyptus are closer to native forests with 36 tons of sediment yield per year. The estimated prevention of sediment yield in the current land use scenario is 1,037 tons per year; therefore restoration of native forest in the study area has the potential to mitigate up to 500 tons of sediment delivery per year. The achievement of this optimum level of ecosystem service probably is not feasible because local forces such as the economic opportunity cost of non forest land uses would impede the establishment of native forests in the entire area. Forest recovery may be feasible in a certain proportion of the deforested lands, thus the classification of the 188 catchments of the study area according to the capacity of forests to prevent sedimentation is helpful for choosing the most appropriate areas to be restored. Despite most studies that have used the MUSLE approach for estimating the amount of sedimentation (Chaves & Piau, 2006; Araujo-Junior, 1997) being focused in single catchments the current research has involved 188 catchments. The results obtained, such as the map classifying the watersheds according to the contribution of land uses to prevent sedimentation (figure 4.2) can be applied for broader purposes of landscape management through revealing priority areas for planning interventions that can mitigate losses of soil and subsequent sedimentation. The map in figure 4.2 can, in the same manner, be helpful in land use decisions because it shows catchments in the landscape of the study area where forest conservation, forest restoration, and deforestation will most affect the water storage in the reservoir. The analysis of water chemistry indicated weak association between land uses in the buffer zones of streams and the quality of water with the exception of alkalinity. Therefore, the only consequence of changes in land use that could be perceived in water 88 is a variation in the capacity of neutralization of acids that originate from water pollution. The independence of levels of nutrients such as phosphates, nitrite and nitrate, from the influence of land use is probably due to the current economic land use activities in the region: local farmers normally do not use mineral fertilizers; hence no meaningful leaching in water bodies can be expected. Despite this lack of influence in the chemical quality of water, variations in land use were significantly related to some of the chemical parameters of soil fertility. The map in figure 4.3 indicates that the mean content of organic matter is 55.7 g/dm3 in soils occupied by forests and 42.15 g/dm3 in other land uses. The difference, i.e. 13.55 g/dm3, can be interpreted as the rate of organic matter losses that may occur through conversion of forests, or the gains that may occur through restoration. The results discussed above are helpful in quantifying in physical terms some of the negative impacts of land use change on human welfare. The maps in figures 4.1, 4.2, and 4.3 indicate, at any point in the landscape, variations in: the amount of carbon potentially sequestered from the atmosphere, the amount of sediment delivered to the reservoir, and the amount of organic matter retained in the soils if native forests are replaced or if they replace other land uses. Results of this study also reveal the maximum and the minimum achievable values of ecosystem services in the study area according to extreme expansion of the current main land uses. These results can support formulation of policies that aim to maximize benefits to humans from land use decisions. Among several potential strategies to be considered in such policies is economic valuation of ecosystem services followed by the development of mechanisms of payments for such services. 89 4.5 References Allan J. D., 2004. Landscapes and riverscapes: The influence of land use on stream ecosystems. Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics, 35:257-284. 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The impact of land use on water chemistry and physical parameters of tropical streams of the northeast shore of Lake Tanganyika. Nyanza Report 2005/University of Arizona,Tucson Schipper L. A. and G. P. Sparling, 2000. Performance of Soil Condition Indicators Across Taxonomic Groups and Land Uses. Soil Sci Soc Am J, 64:300-311. Silva A.M., Schulz H.E., Camargo P.B., 2003. Erosão e hidrosedimentologia em bacias hidrográficas. Rima Editora, São Carlos. Silva V.C., 2003. Calculo automático do fator totpográfico (LS) da EUPS, na bacia do Rio Paracatu. Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical, 33 (1):29-34. Silvano R.A.M., Udvardy S., Ceroni M., Farley J., 2005. An ecological integrity assessment of a Brazilian Atlantic Forest watershed based on surveys of stream health and local farmers' perceptions: implications for management. Ecological Economics, 53:369-385. Soares C., Oliveira M., 2002. Equations for estimating the amount of carbon in the aerial parts of eucalyptus trees in Viçosa, MG, Brazil. Revista Arvore, 26(5): 533-539. Tabarelli M., Pinto L.P., Silva J.M.C., Hirota M., Bede L., 2005. Challenges and Opportunities for Biodiversity Conservation in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Conservation Biology, 19:695-700. 93 USDA, 1986. Technical Release 55: Urban hydrology for small watersheds. United States Department of Agriculture, Washington. Van-Raij B., 1991. Fertilidade do solo e adubação. Ed. Ceres, Piracicaba. Van-Raij B., Cantarella H., Quaggio J.H., Furlani A.M.C., 1997. Boletim Técnico 100: Recomendações de adubação e Calagem para o Estado de São Paulo. Instituto Agronômico – Fundag, Campinas. Williams J.R., 1975. Sediment yield prediction with universal equation using runoff energy factor. In: Present and prospective technology for predicting sediment yields and sources. United States Department of Agriculture, Washington. Wischmeier W.H., Smith D.D., 1978. USDA Agriculture Handbook, number 537: Predicting rainfall erosion losses: a guide to conservation planning. United States Department of Agriculture, Washington. Zhang K., Greenwood D.J., White P.J., Burns I.G., 2007. A dynamic model for the combined effects of N, P and K fertilizers on yield and mineral composition; description and experimental test. Plant and Soil 298, 81-98. 94 CHAPTER 5 ECONOMIC VALUE MAPS OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES: INNOVATIVE TOOLS FOR PLANNING INTERVENTIONS IN THE BRAZILIAN ATLANTIC FOREST 5.1 Introduction The availability of benefits that humans obtain from ecosystems, including climate regulation, watershed protection, conservation of biodiversity, and tourism can be severely affected by changes in land use, such as conversion of forests into pasture or plantation of eucalyptus. These benefits are known as ecosystem services (Costanza et al., 1997; Daily, 1997). The absence of markets for most of the ecosystem services generates the illusion that because their price is zero they have no economic value (Pearce, 2001). However economic values exist and reflect the welfare that people gain due to the presence of these services (OECD, 2002). Demonstration of economic values of ecosystem services, followed by their capture, i.e. internalization in market systems may turn out to be an effective mechanism to influence land use decisions with the objective of improving people’s welfare (Pearce, 2001). Existing legal rules of conservation of the Atlantic Forest are not fully respected on the lands surrounding the Atibainha reservoir in south-eastern Brazil and do not guarantee sound land uses (Ditt et al., 2006). Capture mechanisms based on market systems, where landowners get paid for the ecosystem services provided, may contribute to compensate for the lack of proper land use guidelines. These mechanisms require information about ecosystem services in different land use scenarios. However, acquiring and managing this information in Atlantic Forest landscapes is difficult due to the complexity of ecosystems where different combinations of environmental variables, including types of vegetation, soil, and slope occur. 95 Such measurement difficulties can be overcome by using methods of spatial economic valuation. These methods integrate in geographic information systems (GIS) the environmental characteristics at any point of the landscape for the purpose of quantifying the ecosystem services and their values, and for generating economic value maps (Eade & Moran, 1996). One of the few available examples of application of this approach are three case studies in different locations and in different scales in the USA, where a spatial typology representing various land uses was developed and economic values were subsequently assigned (Troy & Wilson, 2006). Moreover, in the Qinba Mountains of China, a spatial database of vegetation, soil, and topography was developed for assessing ecosystem services and their values, with the purpose of supporting decision making processes. That region is characterized by a diversity of types of vegetation and by the location in the watershed of rivers where conservation of water and soil is critical (Li et al., 2006). Similar characteristics observed on catchments around the Atibainha reservoir in Brazil indicate that this region is also suitable for using GIS and valuation approaches in order to reveal influences of land use change on the availability of ecosystem services. This study adds to this emerging literature by firstly estimating the total economic value of ecosystem services on the lands surrounding the Atibainha reservoir; secondly by mapping economic values of ecosystem services; and thirdly by accounting for monetary gains and losses related to ecosystem services in hypothetical scenarios of landscape change. 96 5.2 The study area The area selected for this study is the Atibainha water reservoir and its surrounding catchments in south-eastern Brazil. The total area of the catchments (excluding the lake) is 7,624 hectares. Nazaré Paulista and Piracaia, the municipalities where these catchments are located, contain approximately 60,000 residents in total, of which 50% are living in rural areas (IBGE, 2000). Despite lack of compliance with existing forest conservation legislation, the presence of fragments of Atlantic Forest in 46% of the non-flooded areas restricts conventional farming practices. The rural economic activities are based mostly on eucalyptus plantations (on 10% of the areas above reservoir) and cattle grazing on pastures (on 27% of the areas above reservoir). The water stored in the reservoir is consumed by more than 10 million people who live in nearby large towns outside the study area such as São Paulo and Guarulhos (Whately & Cunha, 2007). Further to its role in the water supply system, this region is also important for recreation and tourism activities due to the picturesque landscape formed by the Atlantic Forest, the water reservoir, and the hilly slopes (IPT, 2007). 97 5.3 Values of land uses around the Atibainha reservoir 5.3.1 Total economic value (TEV) of ecosystem services Economic value is a measurement in monetary terms of people’s preferences for some goods or services (Pearce, 1993). These preferences correspond to the willingness to pay for the benefits associated with these goods and services or the willingness to accept for giving up these benefits (Bateman et al., 2002). This concept of economic value is anthropocentric and instrumental. It does not consider intrinsic values, i.e. values of environmental assets that cannot be measured and exist not because of human preferences (Pearce, 1993). There are some criticisms to the use of the instrumental concept of value due to the understanding that certain resources such as biodiversity have a higher order of value and can not be subject to scales of comparability (Bateman et al., 2002; OECD, 2002). However, the use of these scales of comparability, based on economic values, are of high applicability for understanding how the increase or decline in ecosystem services can affect human well being (Bockstael et al., 2000; Common & Stagl, 2005). The current study has used the instrumental concept of value. Demonstration and measurement of economic values of environmental assets requires the use of techniques of economic valuation (Pearce, 1993). These techniques can also be applied for calculating the total economic value (TEV) of ecosystem services. The total economic value (TEV) of ecosystem services is composed by direct use values, indirect use values, option values, and non-use values (Turner et al., 1994; Pearce, 1999; Pearce & Turner, 1990; Pearce, 2001). Direct use values refer to direct uses of the resources such as timber and tourism. Indirect use values arise from forest functions, like watershed protection and carbon storage. Option values refer to future benefits that can be obtained from forests such as future use of some plants for medicine or for agriculture. Non-use values are related to welfare arising from conserving the forest unrelated to any current or future use such as existence or bequest values. Previous studies attempted to estimate the TEV of ecosystem services in Mexican forests (Adger et al., 2002), China (Guo et al., 2001; Li et al., 2002), Cape Floristic region of South Africa (Turpie et al., 2003), the Brazilian Amazonian Forest (Torras, 2000), and the planet (Costanza et al., 1997). 98 Determining the TEV of the goods and services that derive from the current land uses around the Atibainha reservoir is helpful in understanding how interventions in the landscape can affect human well-being. A typology of the services provided by the main land uses that could be identified in the study area is listed in Table 5.1. The value of each ecosystem service is discussed in turn, in the remainder of this section. Table 5.1. Economic values and land uses around the Atibainha reservoir Type Values Land use Direct use Scenic beauty (tourism) Native forest Forestry production Eucalyptus Cattle ranching Pasture Mitigation of climate change Native forest, eucalyptus, pasture Protection of soil and water Native forest, eucalyptus, pasture Maintenance of soil fertility Native forest, eucalyptus, pasture Pharmaceutical uses Native forest Source of seeds of native trees Native forest Conservation of biodiversity Native forest Indirect use Option Non-use 5.3.2 Scenic beauty The land surrounding the Atibainha reservoir has been targeted for tourism, development and urbanisation due to the natural beauty of the Atlantic Forest near the water reservoir and the easy access through highways from big cities such as São Paulo and Guarulhos (Hoeffel, et al., 2006a). The number of urban residences in Nazaré Paulista has increased from 2,047 in 1980 to 4,999 in 1991 (CBH-PCJ, 2000). No detailed description of these houses was found in the literature, but during this study some evidence was found that a substantial proportion have been used for tourism on weekends and holidays. Currently, tourism is one of the most important economic activities in the region, with 25 hotels and marinas already established in the region (IPT, 2007). Despite the potential for tourism to benefit the region through generation of income, it has to be cautiously explored, to avoid negative socio-environmental impacts derived from 99 pollution and local residents being pushed to sell their land to wealthier urban dwellers (Fadini & Carvalho, 2004). The environmental impacts of tourism and land development refer mostly to domestic waste delivered to the reservoir, deforestation, and forest fires (Hoeffel et al., 2006b). This can in turn hinder the future development of tourism in the region. Understanding the contribution of fragments of Atlantic Forest for economic gains in tourism activities is useful for determining the economic values of ecosystem services that are associated to scenic beauty. 5.3.3 Forestry production Of the 32,654 hectares of lands in the municipality of Nazaré Paulista, 4,471 hectares are currently occupied by eucalyptus (IPT, 2007). In 2005 the production of eucalyptus was composed by 1,600 tons of vegetal wool, 98,000 m3 of fuel wood, and 17,000 m3 of raw wood. The economic value of this production was equivalent to U$498,604.00, U$1,640,930.00, and U$229,302.00 respectively, considering that U$1.00 = R$2.15 (IBGE, 2006). The economic importance of eucalyptus has been increasing over the years in the region. In one of the catchments around the Atibainha reservoir, for instance, the proportion of lands occupied by eucalyptus has shifted from 14.4% in 1973 to 27.6% in 2003 (Fadini & Carvalho, 2004). Such expansion of areas of eucalyptus is probably due to the lack of economic alternatives in the region and to the increasing demand for wood. One of the largest cellulose companies in Brazil has launched the “Forestry Propagation Program” in the region, focusing on local farmers. Through this program farmers receive seedlings and technical support for forestry production (http://www.vcp.com.br/English/Generic/ Press+Releases/2003/farmers.htm, 10/10/2007). Approximately half of their production is sold to the cellulose company and the remaining is sold to other consumers such as brick potteries, bakeries, and pizzerias. 5.3.4 Pastures Pastures have been declining in the study area mainly due to their replacement by eucalyptus cultivation in rural properties (Fadini & Carvalho, 2004). However, cattle ranching is still one of the most important economic activities, and pastures occupy 7,756 hectares, i.e. 23.7% of the area of Nazaré Paulista (IPT, 2007). 100 In 2004 the bovine livestock of the municipality was composed by 5,000 herds. Of these, 2,700 were cows that produced 1,285,000 litres of milk (IBGE, 2005). According to information obtained in the state agency for agriculture in Nazaré Paulista, milk is normally sold to cooperatives, but the main earnings that cattle ranchers obtain are from commerce of herds (Camila Toledo, personal communication). Quantification of profits obtained from pasture is therefore essential for determining the total economic value of the main land uses in the study area. 5.3.5 Mitigation of climate change Sequestration of CO2 by forests has been widely regarded as an important way to reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and therefore to mitigate global climate change (Sheeran, 2006; Fearnside, 2005). The carbon sequestered and stored in intact forests can be released when these forests suffer anthropogenic disturbances (Murray, 2003). In broadleaf forests of tropical America the average biomass was estimated to be 155.1 tons per hectare, 50% of which corresponds to stock of carbon (Brown & Lugo, 1984). This value may vary, depending on the type of forest and on the level of disturbance. The carbon stocks in the above ground biomass of trees in the fragments of forest near the Atibainha reservoir, estimated in Chapter 4 for different land uses, varied between 70.5 to 89.5 tons of carbon, or 258.7 to 328.5 tons of CO2 per hectare. These fragments occupy approximately 40% of the 33,000 hectares of the municipality of Nazaré Paulista (CBH-PCJ, 2000). Therefore, replacement of these forests by other land uses such as pastures would represent a substantial contribution to global warming with the possibility of releasing more than 930,000 tons of carbon in the atmosphere. Among the numerous effects of global warming, some are market related and can be reflected in national accounts, while others are non-market and correspond to intangibles such as ecosystems or amenity. One possible approach to assign an economic value to the service of carbon storage in forests biomass is to estimate damages caused by CO2 emissions. The damages associated to carbon emissions were assessed regionally and globally by Fankhauser (1995) and the obtained estimate of the marginal costs per unit of emission is U$20 per ton of CO2 over a decade. 101 Similarly, recent calculations undertaken by Anderson (2006) for the Stern Review (Stern, 2007) suggest an average annual cost to reduce fossil fuel emissions of CO2 to three quarters of current level to be equivalent to U$22.00/tCO2/year. Another possible approach for economic value assignment is to observe transactions in carbon market. According to a World Bank report (Capoor & Ambrosi, 2007) the total value of the carbon market in 2006 composed by allowances – including the European Union Emission Trade Scheme, the New South Wales system, the Chicago Climate Exchange, and the UK Emission Trade Scheme – and by project-based transactions – including the Clean Development Mechanism, Joint Implementation, and other compliance mechanisms – was U$30,098,000. The corresponding volume of CO2 was 1,639,000 tons, i.e. the average value of each ton of CO2 was U$18.36, which is close to Anderson’s estimate. 5.3.6 Protection of soil and water Rain drops falling on the ground contribute towards soil erosion by releasing particles of soil that can move through the surface runoff (Bertoni & Lombardi-Neto, 2005). Some of the main consequences of erosion are losses of soil and delivery of sediments to water courses and reservoirs (Silva et al., 2003). The intensity of these problems is influenced by land use and management because of the variations that may occur on: the level of protection from impacts of rain drops, dispersion of energy of water in the surface runoff, infiltration of water into the soil, and capacity of soil to retain water (Wischmeier & Smith, 1978). Of the current main land uses around the Atibainha reservoir, native forests are the most effective in protecting soil and water, followed by eucalyptus, pastures, and exposed soils, as was demonstrated in Chapter 4. Thus, estimating the costs to replace benefits that are lost due to conversion of native forests to other land uses can be a useful approach for determining the economic value of the services of soil and water protection. 5.3.7. Maintenance of soil fertility The sustainability of forest ecosystems and the benefits that humans obtain from forests depend on soil fertility because limited availability of nutrients restricts plant growth. The nutrient most required by plants is nitrogen that can become available to plants through decomposition of organic matter (Van-Raij, 1991). 102 Results of Chapter 4 showed that native forests have higher contents of organic matter in the soil than other land uses in Nazaré Paulista. Therefore, the capacity of forests to regenerate in non-forested areas is restricted by the reduced availability of nitrogen, which is associated to the content of organic matter. The costs of adding fertilizers in the soil to recover the availability of nutrients is one possible way of approximating the value of the maintenance of soil fertility service which is provided by forest ecosystems. 5.3.8 Pharmaceutical uses In spite of the severe anthropogenic disturbances that occurred in the Atlantic Forest landscapes in Brazil during the 20th century, the remaining forest fragments are still among the ecosystems with the highest number of species in the planet (Myers, 1988). The chemical compounds encountered in their biodiversity can be of interest for pharmaceutical applications. Therefore, economic values associated to such applications are expected to reside in these forests (Pearce & Purushothaman, 1995). No prospecting of biodiversity is currently occurring in the region of Nazaré Paulista; nevertheless the option to use Atlantic Forest remnants in the future for pharmaceutical research remains. One possible approach to determine the option value associated with pharmaceutical products in forests is to calculate the value of the “marginal species” in biodiversity prospecting whilst recognizing the possibility of redundancy among different species in the utility of their respective chemical compounds. By computing a value of marginal species of U$9,431 and considering data about biodiversity suggested by Myers (1998; 1990), the willingness to pay of a pharmaceutical company to preserve one hectare of Atlantic Coast Forest in Brazil was estimated by Simpson et al. (1996) to be U$4.42. 5.3.9 Sources of seeds for forest restoration As demonstrated in Chapter 3 there is currently a lack of compliance with the legal requirements to conserve Atlantic Forest around the Atibainha reservoir. The remaining forests are therefore in danger of conversion to other land uses. However, it was also observed that some of the Atlantic Forest landscapes near the study area have been targeted for initiatives of forest restoration. This is due in part to the efforts of some landowners to manage their properties in accordance with forest laws, the increasing awareness of the deleterious consequences of deforestation on the availability of other 103 natural assets such as water, and the development of projects to mitigate carbon emissions. Forest restoration requires seeds that can be collected from selected trees in the remnant fragments of forest. Collection of seeds has not been exploited commercially yet in the lands around the Atibainha reservoir; even so option values can reside in the forests for this potential use. The price of seeds varies depending to the species. The average price per kg of seeds produced by a private company in the municipality of Itatinga, in the state of São Paulo, was R$115 or U$53 (www.matasnativas.com.br, 26/02/2007). Assuming that a hypothetical landowner is able to collect 1 Kg of seeds per year in one hectare of forest, the option value of that hectare of forest as a source of seeds can be estimated in approximately U$53 per year. 5.3.10 Conservation of biodiversity Tropical forests, including the remnants of forest in Nazaré Paulista, are reservoirs of biological diversity and provide habitats for many species. These forests can be considered as a public good whose conservation may increase welfare of people independently of whether they use it or not throughout the world (Kahn, 2005). Willingness to pay (WTP) for biodiversity conservation in protected areas has been estimated in some studies (Shyamsundar & Kramer, 1996; Day, 2002; Swanson et al., 2002; Adams et al., 2003). One of these studies focused on WTP by Brazilians for conserving biodiversity in a 35,000 hectares state park (Adams et al., 2003). The obtained estimate was U$60.39 per hectare per year. Despite the fact that this study did not explore WTP of distant beneficiaries (such as foreigners) it is an important reference for getting an approximate economic value of biodiversity conservation in the forests around the Atibainha reservoir for local Brazilian people, as both areas are in the state of São Paulo. Furthermore they belong to the same biome, i.e. the seasonal semideciduous Atlantic Forest, with similarities in their structure and composition of species. The areas differ by the fact that the forests around the Atibainha reservoir are not within the limits of protected areas, such as a park. 104 5.4 Methodology 5.4.1 Mapping ecosystem services A spatial valuation framework known as “mapping ecosystem services” (Bateman et al., 2002; Troy & Wilson, 2006) was adapted to this study. The procedures can be summarized in the following steps: i) The study area was defined by including 188 catchments around the Atibainha reservoir; ii) The services provided by the main land uses in the study area were identified and assigned to their respective categories of values (Table 5.1); iii) Land cover typologies were defined according to the potential of the various land uses to affect the value of each of the benefits mentioned in Table 5.1; iv) The indirect use values listed in Table 5.1 were estimated through analysis of original biophysical data collected in the field, followed by economic valuation; v) Direct use values of the benefits indicated in Table 5.1 were estimated through interviews with land users, followed by analysis of their income; vi) Using data from the literature the benefits transfer method was applied to estimate the option and the non-use values indicated in Table 5.1; vii) Layers were constructed in a geographic information system (GIS) for spatial representation of values of each of the benefits listed in Table 5.1; viii) A total economic value map was constructed by computing the layers that relate to all the benefits indicated in Table 5.1; ix) Economic value maps of alternative land use scenarios were constructed for revealing how economic values can be affected by interventions in the landscape. Procedures for determining economic values for each of the benefits derived from the main land uses are described in detail in the following paragraphs. 105 5.4.2 Assigning economic values to carbon storage Carbon storage in different land use scenarios was calculated in Chapter 4. The obtained estimated values in old native forests, young native forests, eucalyptus and pastures were 89.5, 70.5, 19.8, and 0 tons of carbon per hectare, respectively. In order to value the benefits of climate mitigation, these estimates were initially converted to tons of CO2, considering that 1ton of carbon is equivalent to 3.67 tons of CO2. The obtained value of CO2 was multiplied by U$20.00, which is a mean obtained from the values of annual costs found in the Stern Review (2007) and in a recent World Bank review (Capoor & Ambrosi, 2007). The decision to consider this average value was based on the various limitations in any of the attempts to assign an economic value to carbon benefits that are reported in the literature. 5.4.3. Assigning economic values to prevention of sediment delivery in the water reservoir The present value of the amount of money spent by Sabesp, the local water company, for the construction of the Cantareira Water Supply System is approximately 2 billion reais (Andriguetti, 2004). This value is equivalent to U$930 million, considering a dollar/real exchange rate of 2.15. The maximum volume of water that can be stored in the reservoirs of Atibainha, Jaguari-Jacareí, Cachoeira, and Paiva Castro, that compose the Cantareira System, is 988.02 hm3, or 988,020,000 m3 (Table 5.2). Therefore, the average cost of construction of the storage system was U$0.94 per cubic meter of water. Assuming that the average soil density is 1.2 g/cm3, the cost to replace losses in the storage capacity of the reservoirs would be approximately U$0.78 per ton of sediment delivered. This value and the estimates of sediment yield for each of the 188 catchments that surround the water reservoir developed in Chapter 4 were used to determine economic impacts of sedimentation caused by changes of land use in each catchment around the reservoir. A hypothetical scenario in which the entire study area is occupied by urban area or soil exposed – the land use that most contribute for delivering sediments into the reservoir – was used as a reference for determining the amount of sediment yield that is avoided due to the current land uses in each catchment. The quantities of avoided sediment delivery were multiplied by the replacement cost of storage capacity of reservoirs in order to determine their respective economic values. 106 Table 5.2 Capacity of water storage in the reservoirs of the Cantareira System (Source: Braga, 2004). Obs.: 1hm = 100m. Maximum volume (hm3) Usable Volume (hm3) 1,037.35 807.86 Cachoeira 114.60 70.55 Atibainha 301.51 100.16 27.6 9.44 1,481.03 988.02 Reservoir Jaguari-Jacareí Paiva Castro Total 5.4.4 Assigning economic values to the maintenance of soil fertility One of the impacts of forest conversion is the decline in organic matter in the soil. Thus, the maintenance of soil fertility may rely on the addition of fertilizers to compensate losses of nutrients. The average content of organic matter in deforested lands, as estimated in Chapter 4, was taken as a reference for calculating the amount of fertilizers, expressed in kg of nitrogen, which should be added to the soil for rescuing its fertility properties. Guidelines of soil fertilizing (Van-Raij et al., 1997) for restoration of Atlantic Forest were used for this calculation. The economic value of the maintenance of soil fertility was assumed to correspond to the replacement cost of nitrogen. Such value was determined by considering the amount of nitrogen to be added to the soil and the average market price of nitrogen in the region where this study was carried out. It is important to note that the replacement of nitrogen through agronomic procedures does not necessarily recover all the functions of the soil that are associated to its chemical components. Therefore the economic value of the maintenance of soil fertility estimated through the replacement cost of nitrogen should be interpreted with caution, considering the risks of under estimation associated to the adopted procedure. 5.4.5 Assigning economic values to provision of recreation and tourism Recreation and tourism activities in the study area are favoured due to its scenic beauty and location only a short distance away from large urban centres. Currently, there are 25 hotels (pousadas) in the municipality of Nazaré Paulista (IPT, 2007). Conversion of native forests is a threat to the continuity of these activities. In order to obtain an estimate of the economic values of recreation or tourism in the area, the zonal travel 107 cost method was applied (Freeman, 2003; Haab & McConnell, 2003; Bateman et al., 2002; Garrod & Willis, 2001; Motta,1997). Three categories of services offered by the hotels were considered for determining the travel costs of their guests. The first category was named “accommodation for sporadic guests” and refers to lodging for visitors that come and stay in the hotels only sporadically. The second was named “accommodation for regular guests” and refers to renting chalets or apartments on a monthly basis for visitors that come regularly to the hotels. The third category of service was named “garage boats” and refers to renting space on a monthly basis for visitors to keep their boats. Owners of 9 hotels were interviewed and, when they gave permission, their records of guests were consulted. Detailed information was collected about all the services that three of these hotels -- each one offering a different category of service as defined above -- had provided during the year of 2006. The main information obtained consisted of: i) characteristics of the services offered for the guests and visitors; ii) municipality where visitors come from; and iii) number of visitors from each municipality/year. These sources of information were assumed to be representative of the entire region, which includes the 25 hotels. For the purposes of travel cost analysis only the visitors from municipalities within the state of São Paulo were considered. Less than 5% of the visitors recorded were from other states or from other countries and therefore were considered as negligible. The municipalities of the state of São Paulo were classified in five zones (Figure 5.1), using GIS, according to their distances from Nazaré Paulista. The total number of residents in each zone was calculated from data of municipalities’ population based on the census carried out by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, 2006). From these data the number of visits per 100,000 inhabitants was calculated for each zone. Each record of accommodation of “sporadic visitors” was assumed to correspond to one visit during the year. Each record of chalet or apartment rented was assumed to correspond to 24 visits per month, considering that: i) each chalet or apartment is occupied by an average of 8 guests; and ii) the chalets and apartments are normally used by the guests on weekends, three times per month. Finally, each space rented for boat parking in the garage was assumed to be associated to 12 visits per month, considering 108 that: i) each boat is normally used by 4 visitors; and ii) visitors come to Nazaré Paulista to use their boats normally on weekends, three times per month. Figure 5.1 Classification of municipalities of the State of São Paulo according to their distances from Nazaré Paulista. Expenses with fuel and toll of each visitor from each municipality were estimated, using a distance and travel cost calculator that was available in the internet (http://www.bancoreal.com.br/form_popup/veja_maplink/index2.htm, 01/09/2007). The following assumptions were made: i) travel cost refers to the return trip from each municipality to Nazaré Paulista in one vehicle that consumes 1 litre of gas per 10 Km travelled; ii) the average cost of gas is R$2,50 per litre; and iii) on average 3 visitors are transported in one vehicle. The population, the number of visits during the year of 2006, and the average travel cost per visitor from each zone are presented in Table 5.3. 109 Table 5.3 Number of visits and travel cost per visitor from five distance zones in the State of São Paulo Zone Distance from Nazaré Paulista Population Visits Visits/100,000 people Average travel cost/ visit (fuel + toll) A 00 - 30 km 16,027,712 41180 256,93 R$11,55 B 30 - 60 km 7,965,306 12555 157,6211 R$19,55 C 60 - 90 km 3,999,606 2818 70,45694 R$29,54 D 90 – 120 km 2,254,549 1370 60,76603 R$34,93 E 120 – 450 km 9,076,481 586 6,456247 R$57,17 As described above, from the data collected through the interviews with owners of hotels and the management of census data in GIS, the following information was produced: zones defined by travel distance, demographic information from each zone, number of visits from each zone, and travel cost per visit in each zone. This is the basic information recommended in the literature for applying the travel cost method. Controlling for further complementary variables such as socio-economic characteristics of visitors, substitute tourism site and variations in the preferences of visitors for the tourist site is desirable but was unfortunately beyond the scope of this study. Regression analysis was carried out to determine the variation in the number of visits as a response to travel cost. The resulting estimated values of scenic beauty are a lower bound to the true benefits to visitors. This is because not all the tourist travel expenses could be identified during the hotels surveys. Although in order to minimize this risk, informal interviews were made with some guests for checking their main expenses during their use of the tourism installations. But more fundamentally the travel cost method only captures recreational use values and not the non-use values (Freeman, 2003). 5.4.6 Assigning economic values to benefits obtained from eucalyptus and pasture The economic values of benefits that can be obtained from eucalyptus and pasture were determined by adapting the methodology that Garcia-Filho (1999) suggests for assessing farmers’ income. The following equation has been used: RA = PB – CI – D – S – J – RT, where: RA = income; PB = raw product or the value of production; 110 CI = intermediary consumption including fertilizers, pesticides, diesel, soil preparation, seedlings, seeds, and medicines; D = depreciation of capital; S = services; J = interest; RT = land renting. The input data for running the above equation were determined by calculating the mean of the data collected through interviews with ten producers of eucalyptus and ten cattle ranchers. They hold approximately 400 hectares of land which correspond to approximately 20% of the land used for these activities in the study area. Therefore, the income calculated with the average values from the collected data was assumed to be the reference economic value of benefits obtained from these activities. For the purposes of this study the values of the interest were considered negligible. 5.4.7 Transferring benefits The technique of benefits transfer was applied for valuing option and non-use values (Pearce et al., 2006; Wilson & Hoehn, 2006). It consists of taking values estimated in others’ studies and adjusting them to the current study. Therefore, the value of WTP for preserving Atlantic Forest for pharmaceutical purposes suggested by Simpson et al. (1996), the option value of the forests as a source of seeds obtained from market prices of seeds (www.matasnativas.com.br, 26/02/2007) and the value of WTP for conserving a fragment of Atlantic Forest, suggested by Adams et al. (2003), were transferred to the current study. An assumption was made that pharmaceutical uses were only achievable in forests older than 30 years. In order to calculate an annual average the value of U$4.42/ha estimated by Simpson et al. (1996) was divided by 30. 5.4.8 Valuing ecosystem services in areas legally designated for conservation It was demonstrated in Chapter 4 that 40% of the study area is composed by “Permanent Preservation Areas” (PPA), i.e. areas legally designated to be occupied by native forests for the provision of various services, including protection of soil and water (Brasil, 1965). However, it was found that this land use obligation is only respected in 50% of the total area of PPAs. The impacts on the provision of ecosystem services of non 111 compliance with this legislation were analyzed by adopting in the areas of PPA the same procedures of valuing services that were developed for the entire study area. 112 5.5 Results 5.5.1 Economic values of carbon storage The obtained economic values of carbon storage in old native forests, young native forests, eucalyptus, and pastures, were U$6,569; U$5,174; U$1,453; and U$00 per hectare per year, respectively. The spatial representation of these values in the current land use scenario is illustrated by the map in Figure 5.2. Figure 5.2 Economic value map of carbon storage in the current land uses. 5.5.2 Economic values of protection of soil and water From the estimates of prevention of sediment yield described in Chapter 4, and considering U$0.78 as the value of preventing each ton of sediment yield, the obtained economic value of protection of soil and water associated to current land uses in each of the 188 catchments around the Atibainha reservoir are presented in the Appendix 5.1. 113 For the purposes of spatial representation, the catchments are grouped in 6 classes of economic value in Figure 5.3. The estimated values of prevention of sedimentation in hypothetical scenarios of areas entirely occupied by pastures, eucalyptus and native forests are presented in the Appendix 5.2. Figure 5.3 Economic value map of prevention of sedimentation in the current land uses. 5.5.3 Economic values of maintenance of soil fertility Chapter 04 estimated an average of 42.15 grams of organic matter per cubic decimetre of soil in deforested lands. When such content of organic matter is found it is recommended an addition of 20 kg of nitrogen through fertilizers per hectare to ensure appropriate fertility of soil for restoration of the Atlantic Forest (Van-Raij et al., 1997). The average price of nitrogen from fertilizers encountered in the region is R$2.60/Kg N (which is equivalent to U$1.21/ Kg N). Therefore the estimated cost to replace nitrogen in deforested areas is (20 Kg N/ ha) X (U$1.21/ Kg N) = U$24.20 / ha in 15 years, 114 assuming that this is the necessary period for the forest to recover its capacity to maintain high contents of organic matter in the soil. Therefore, the estimated economic value of the maintenance of soil fertility is U$1.61/ha year. The spatial representation of this service is illustrated by the map in Figure 5.4. Figure 5.4 Economic value map of maintenance of soil fertility in the current land uses. 5.5.4 Economic values of provision of recreation and tourism Results of regression analysis, with the proportion of residents from each zone that visited Nazaré Paulista in 2006 as the dependent variable, and travel cost per visit as the independent variable, are presented in Table 5.4. Significant correlation between these variables was found (P< 0.05; R2 = 0.84). The obtained equation that relates travel cost (TC) with number of visits/100,000 people (V) is V = 268.05 – 5.159*TC. The graph of this simple regression line is in Figure 5.5. 115 Table 5.4 Results of regression analysis with travel cost per visit as the independent variable and number of visits per 100,000 people as the dependent variable. B Std. Err. of B t value p-level Intercept 268.05 45.27 5.92 0.01 TC/visit -5.16 1.32 -3.91 0.03 N = 5; R = 0.914; R2 = 0.836; Adjusted R2 = 0.781; F(1,3) = 15.268; p < 0.03 60 50 Travel cost / visit 40 30 20 10 0 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Visits / 100,000 Figure 5.5 Zonal travel cost demand graph. Regression equation: (Visits/100,000 people) = 268.05 – 5.159 * (Travel cost/visit) By estimating the consumer surplus associated with the visits, one can obtain the economic value of the provision of tourism and recreation per 100,000 inhabitants. This corresponds to the area under the demand line in the graph of Figure 5.5, and was found to be R$6,962.60. The total population of the 5 zones is 39,323,654, thus the total economic value of this service is (39,323,654/100,000)*(R$6,962.60) = R$2,737,949.00 per year. Considering a real/dollar rate of 2.15 the total value of provision of recreation and tourism is equivalent to U$1,273,465.00. If the 3,875 hectares of Atlantic Forest in 116 the area are assumed to be necessary for the provision of this service, the respective economic value of each hectare of Atlantic Forest is U$328.63 per year. The spatial representation of this service is illustrated by the map in Figure 5.6. Figure 5.6 Economic value map of direct use values (tourism/recreation, production of eucalyptus, and cattle ranching in pastures) in the current land uses. 5.5.5 Economic value of forestry production The average values of the data collected in the interviews with producers of eucalyptus are presented in Table 5.5. The obtained value of income through inputting these data in the equation of Garcia-Filho (1999) was R$8,827.58 per hectare. Considering the real/dollar rate of 2.15 and the total eucalyptus production cycle of 9 years (see Table 5.5), the resulting economic value of forestry production is U$925.32/hectare/year. The spatial representation of this service is also illustrated in Figure 5.6. 117 Table 5.5 Average values of data collected in interviews with producers of eucalyptus. Average Groups of data Specification Subtotal values Fertilizers R$59.14/ha Chemical products R$6.19/ha Intermediary consumption (CI) R$292.51/ha Diesel R$35.85/ha Seedlings R$191.33/ha Renting (RT) Equipment renting R$6.40/ha R$6.40/ha Land preparation R$394.69/ha Services (S) R$1,340.53/ha Temporary services R$341.53/ha Salaries R$604.31/ha Depreciation (D) Animal depreciation R$69.20/ha R$69.20/ha Total cycle (number of harvest multiplied Number of harvest 2 9 years by age) Age of eucalyptus 4.5 Production of 245 m3 eucalyptus/ha Value of production (PB) R$9,800.00 Price of eucalyptus R$40/m3 5.5.6 Economic value of pasture The average values of data collected in the interviews with cattle ranchers are presented in Table 5.6. The obtained value of income through inputting these data in the equation of Garcia-Filho (1999) was R$3,618.55 per hectare. Considering the real/dollar rate of 2.15, the resulting economic value of pasture is U$1,683.05/hectare/year. The spatial representation of this service is illustrated in Figure 5.6. Table 5.6. Average values of data collected in interviews with cattle ranchers. Groups of data Specification Average values Subtotal Chemical products R$28.50/ha Diesel R$90.00/ha Intermediary consumption (CI) Services (S) Depreciation (D) Value of production (PB) Medicines R$80.56/ha Seeds Feed Land preparation Temporary services Salaries Equipment Animals (horses) Production of milk/ha Price of milk Production of cheese/ha Price of cheese Production of herds/ha Price of herds R$24.15/ha R$224.58/ha R$17.33/ha R$296.77/ha R$125.00/ha R$185.06 R$56.30 6,477 litres R$0.40/litre 14 cheeses R$4.00/cheese 7 herds R$300.00/herd R$447.79/ha R$439.10 R$241.36 R$4,746.80 118 5.5.7 Option and non-use values The estimated value of the forests for pharmaceutical uses, production of seeds, and biodiversity conservation, obtained by benefits transfer, were U$0.15/ha/year, U$53.00/ha/year, and U$60.39/ha/year, respectively. The spatial representation of these values is illustrated in Figure 5.7. Figure 5.7 Economic value map of option and non use values in the current land uses. 5.5.8 Total economic value and analysis of alternative scenarios The obtained total economic value of the current land uses, i.e. 2,100 ha of old forest; 1,775 ha of young forest, 794 ha of eucalyptus, and 2,353 ha of pasture, in the study area is U$30,724,118. This total refers to U$5,968,362 of direct uses, U$24,315,789 of indirect uses, U$205,956 of option values, and U$234,011 of non-use values (Table 5.7). In hypothetical scenarios of conversion of all land uses to pasture, eucalyptus, and 119 old native forests, the total economic values change to U$11,994,687; U$16,877,897; and U$49,421,117, respectively. The total economic value map of the current land uses is illustrated in Figure 5.8. Figure 5.8 Classes of total economic values of the current land uses around the Atibainha reservoir, expressed in U$/hectare/year. 120 Table 5.7 Total economic values of current land uses around the Atibainha reservoir per year. Classification of values Benefits Values of current land use scenario Values of homogeneous scenario of pasture Values of homogeneous scenario of eucalyptus Values of homogeneous scenario of old native forest Direct use Provision of tourism and recreation U$1,273,441 U$00 U$00 U$2,307,640 Forestry production U$734,704 U$00 U$6,497,597 U$00 Pasturage U$3,960,217 U$11,818,377 U$00 U$00 Mitigation of climate change U$24,132,432 U$00.00 U$10,202,966 U$46,127,518 Protection of soil and water U$177,119 U$176,310 U$177,334 U$177,376 Maintenance of soil fertility U$6,238 U$00 U$00 U$11,305 Pharmaceutical uses U$581 U$00 U$00 U$1,053 Source of seeds of native trees U$205,375 U$00 U$00 U$372,166 Conservation of biodiversity U$234,011 U$00 U$00 U$424,059 U$30,724,118 U$11,994,687 U$16,877,897 U$49,421,117 Indirect use Option Non-use TEV 5.5.9 Costs and benefits of law enforcement The estimated value of ecosystem services associated with the current land uses in “Permanent Preservation Areas” is U$9.8 million (see Table 5.8). This is less than 50% of the maximum TEV of ecosystem services that could be provided if these areas were entirely occupied by old forests. Respecting the law for letting native forests develop in these Permanent Preservation Areas up to the achievement of the “F2” forest stage would mean an increase of U$12.7 million in the value of ecosystem services. This value can be interpreted as the cost of the current non-observance to the forest law. It also points to how much theoretically one could spend in promoting law enforcement in order to ensure the provision of the respective ecosystem services. 121 Table 5.8 Values of ecosystem services in “Permanent Preservation Areas” (PPA) in various land use scenarios Current land use in PPA Approximate area (ha) Value of ecosystem services associated to current land uses in PPA Value of ecosystem services in homogeneous scenario of forest F2 Current losses of ecosystem services due to non observance to law Forest F2 695 U$4,894,355.00 U$4,894,355.00 U$00.00 Forest F1 827 U$4,673,933.00 U$5,827,598.00 U$1,153,665.00 Eucalyptus 193 U$285,008.00 U$1,358,047.00 U$1,073,039.00 Pasture 1,504 U$31,632.00 U$10,579,034.00 U$10,547,402.00 TOTAL 3,219 U$9,884,928.00 U$22,659,034.00 U$12,774,106.00 Obs: Young forests are designated F1 and old forests are designated F2. 122 5.6 Discussion and Conclusion Prior to this study, an estimation of the economic value of ecosystem services in the lands around the Atibainha reservoir had only been obtained (in a rather rough fashion) through extrapolation of numbers presented in large global studies such as the ones reported by Costanza (1997) and by Pearce & Moran (1994). A substantial refinement in estimation of these values has been achieved in the current research through the integration, in geographic information systems, of specific physical assessments of ecosystem services with procedures of economic valuation of various land uses. Comparison among hypothetical homogeneous land use scenarios, using their estimated values, revealed that the highest TEV lies in old native forests, with U$49.4 million/year in 7,022 hectares. Therefore, the average value per hectare is U$7,038/hectare/year. In order to better understand this estimate and to compare it with results of other TEV studies it is worth analysing the individual contributions of the various ecosystem services to the total value (see Table 5.9), specially those services that were obtained through original calculations rather than value transfers from the literature. Observing each contributing value individually is also important because there is a great variation in the ecosystem services selected in each study of TEV reviewed, as well as in the methods for their assessment. Table 5.9 Individual contributions for the average TEV of ecosystem services Ecosystem service obtained Average value (U$/hectare/year) from native forests Tourism 328.61 Mitigation of climate change 6569.00 Protection of soil and water 25.30 Maintenance of soil fertility 1.60 Pharmaceuthical uses 0.15 Seeds for native trees 53.00 Biodiversity conservation 60.40 TOTAL 7,038.06 123 Unsurprisingly, mitigation of climate change accounted for 93% of the total economic value in the land surrounding the Atibainha reservoir, i.e. U$6,569/hectare/year. The value of mitigation of climate change found in Torras’ (2000) survey of various studies varied from U$59 to U$336/hectare/year. Results of the current study are much higher than this range of values because they are based in much more recent estimates of costs to reduce fossil fuel emissions (Stern, 2007) and current transactions in the carbon markets (Capoor & Ambrosi, 2007), unavailable at the time of Torras’ work. The estimated climate change mitigation value in Mexico using similar approaches (i.e. the value of impacts of global warming) was U$3,633/hectare/year for tropical evergreen forests (REF). This value is also lower than the one obtained around the lake of Atibainha because it is based on a cost of U$20 for each ton of C (carbon) released in the atmosphere, whereas the current study considered a cost of U$20 for each ton of CO2 (carbon dioxide). Furthermore, some differences in the carbon storage capacity are likely to occur between the Mexican forests and the forests assessed in this study. Tourism was the second most valuable ecosystem service associated to native forests around the lake of Atibainha. The average of U$328/hectare/year is substantially higher than the estimate of U$37/hectare/year obtained by Torras (2000) for the Amazonian forest, but it is close to the U$392/hectare/year obtained by Turpie et al. (2003) in South Africa (FN: the $392 value was determined by considering an estimate of 7.4 billion randes in 2.9 million hectares of native vegetation, and assuming that U$1 is equivalent to 6.5 randes). Nevertheless, comparison of these values requires caution because of the significant differences between the specific characteristics of each study area. For instance, the relatively high number of hotels per unit of area and the few economic alternatives available in the lands around the Atibainha reservoir are some important factors that may influence the value of the tourism ecosystem service. These local characteristics were not found in the other studies of valuation of forests for tourism. The possibility of comparing the values of maintenance of soil fertility and protection of soil and water with results of other studies is also limited due to the different approaches adopted in the estimations. Whereas some studies assume that maintenance of soil fertility and conservation of soil are one unique ecosystem service whose value is 124 obtained through the costs of nutrient loss (Li at al., 2006; Guo et al., 2001; Torras, 2000), this study has considered these functions separately. Furthermore, rather than using the previous studies’ approach of estimating losses of nutrients in the soil through extrapolation of broad estimates of soil losses, the replacement costs of soil fertility was calculated through comparisons of measurements of nutrient contents in the soil in different land use scenarios, using results of analysis in laboratory of samples of soil, as described in Chapter 4. Analyses of the functions of conservation of soil and conservation of water were integrated in this study through combining a model to predict sedimentation with calculations of replacement cost of water storage capacity in the reservoir. Such approach has not been found in other studies. As demonstrated in Table 5.9, the total contribution to the TEV of maintenance of soil fertility, conservation of soil and water, pharmaceutical uses, seeds for native trees, and biodiversity conservation is relatively low, i.e. less than 2% of the average TEV of ecosystem services, per hectare of forest. Notably, among the ecosystem services valued in this study, mitigation of climate change is the only one that can compete with opportunity costs of non-forest land uses. The average estimated value of this service, i.e. U$6,569/hectare/year, is substantially higher than the estimated income of U$1,683/hectare/year for cattle ranching and U$925/hectare/year for production of eucalyptus. Overall, if land use decisions in the region could be based on market systems with capacity to capture all values of ecosystem services the landscape would probably be almost entirely occupied by native forests. Nevertheless, it is currently composed by a mosaic of land uses which is determined by market failures in the capture of these values, and by the opportunity costs of eucalyptus and pasturage. Note that the logic of land use decisions based on opportunity cost is somewhat contradicted by the presence of eucalyptus, which has a value per hectare/year inferior to the value of pasture. However, these are average values, i.e. some producers of eucalyptus may obtain incomes higher than some cattle ranchers. The characterization of market failures in capturing values of ecosystem services and the estimated values of various benefits associated with land uses is also helpful for comprehending the divergences between individual and social benefits. Profits from 125 cattle ranching and production of eucalyptus could be classified as individual benefits, whereas several of the ecosystem services such as climate mitigation are of social interest. Thus, human welfare in a social perspective depends on the existence of driving forces of land use that prevent the landscape to be entirely converted into pastures or plantations of eucalyptus. Forest legislation could be a driving force to stimulate land use decisions towards the provision of ecosystem services of social interest. If the existent legal obligation to conserve native forests in Permanent Preservation Areas was respected, the maximum provision of ecosystem services of social interest would be achieved at least in 40% of the lands in the study area. The estimated value of these services is U$22.7 million/year. However, it was demonstrated that the provision of ecosystem services in the current land uses of PPA is equivalent to only 43% of this value, i.e. U$9.9 million/year, because some of the lands are currently (and illegally) occupied by pastures, eucalyptus, or young native forests. All the native forests would be old in the area if the PPAs were properly enforced. This indicates a substantial failure in law enforcement, and confirms the perception that command-and-control approaches such as legislation often fail in ensuring a sound maintenance of ecosystem services (Jewitt, 2002; Holling & Meffe, 1996). The effectiveness of legislation can be improved through integration with other possible driving forces of land use such as mechanisms of payments for ecosystem services (PES). The effectiveness of PES schemes depends on their capacity to capture values of ecosystem services. Changes in land use decisions may occur even if such values are not integrally captured; for example, it is clear that carbon trading alone could justify conservation in the case of the Atibainha reservoir area. The captured values have to be sufficient to compete with the opportunity costs of the development (such as pasturage and production of eucalyptus). However, it should also be noted that some initiatives of PES in Central America exist where the values of compensation to providers of ecosystem services were inferior to the opportunity costs. This can be justified by the presence of sometimes significant secondary non-cash benefits, such as opportunities to implement socially desirable activities, security of income, income diversification and education/training (Kosoy et al., 2007; REF). 126 The results obtained in this study, including the economic value maps, can be used as the broad basis to develop PES schemes according to the availability of sources of funds, as well as to the interest in some specific ecosystem service. Currently the schemes of payments for forest services associated to water are less developed than those related to carbon. The provision of water as an ecosystem service is already being charged to the consumers in the state of São Paulo (CBH-PCJ, 2006), but substantial improvements are needed in these mechanisms to convert such payments into effective compensation for land uses that favour the provision of water. Indeed, the results of this study provide an opportunity to improve these existing mechanisms. The economic value maps for example can be helpful in such improvements by identifying sites where resources from water charging can be best allocated. As noted above, mitigation of climate change (valued at $6,569/hectare/year) is the only ecosystem service that can compete with the opportunity costs of non-forest land uses (valued at U$1,683/hectare/year for cattle ranching and U$925/hectare/year for production of eucalyptus). The development of carbon markets in the area therefore appears to be a priority for the establishment of markets for ecosystem services. Apart from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which has the potential to consider conservation of forests as an eligible activity in the future, voluntary markets independent of CDM have also been developed (Tayab, 2006) and may constitute a source of payments for ecosystem services. Besides the evolving market for services related to water and carbon there is also an increasing interest in PES systems focused on bundles of ecosystem services (Duraiappah, 2006). Examples of such mechanisms include eco-labeling projects, tradable development rights, NGO conservation projects, and government programs of watershed management (Lakany et al., 2007). One important advantage of these systems is the opportunity for capturing values of more ecosystem services. However, their functionality depends on the knowledge of the various services to be considered. In these cases the maps produced in the current research are useful for revealing values, as well as for indicating where these values reside. The results of this study have more far reaching implications than simply supporting the development of PES schemes. By revealing how the TEV of ecosystem services can be affected by land use changes, these results can be used for planning future interventions in the landscape in order to prevent decline in human welfare as well as to define 127 adequate compensation for some inevitable losses in ecosystem services. This translation of ecosystem service science into policy guidelines is crucial in regions that are suitable to intense losses of natural habitats such as the Atlantic Forest. 128 5.7 References Adams C., Aznar C., Seroa-da-Mota R. S., Ortiz R.A., Reid J., 2003. Valoração Econômica do Parque Estadual Morro do Diabo (SP). Conservation Strategy Fund, São Paulo. Adger W.N, Brown K., Cervigni R., Moran D., 2002. 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USDA Agriculture Handbook, number 537: Predicting rainfall erosion losses: a guide to conservation planning. United States Department of Agriculture, Washington. 135 CHAPTER 6 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR PROPOSING MECHANISMS OF PAYMENTS FOR ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN THE BRAZILIAN ATLANTIC FOREST 6.1 Introduction The increasing awareness of the critical role of forests in providing valued services such as climate regulation and conservation of water, together with an increasing belief in the effectiveness of market-based mechanisms for conservation, have stimulated the development of systems of payments for ecosystem services (PES) in several countries (Pagiola et al., 2005a; Pagiola et al., 2005b; Pagiola et al., 2005c; Rosa et al., 2004; Tognetti et al., 2005; Landell-Mills & Porras, 2002; Grieg-Gran et al., 2005). These systems can be defined as voluntary transactions in which the provision of ecosystem services, or some land use that secures the provision of ecosystem services, is paid by beneficiaries of these services (Wunder, 2005, 2006, 2007). The idea behind the PES systems is to prevent loss of forest and their associated ecosystem services through incorporating these services in market systems that capture their values, translating them into actual cash flows. This allows conservation activities to compete with the opportunity costs of alternative land uses (Pearce, 2004; Kosoy et al., 2007). The PES systems have a logic which is similar to the logic of other market initiatives: buyers and sellers (of ecosystem services) can trade by allocating resources according to a price which is acceptable to both sides (Duraiappah, 2006). This form of bargain between providers and beneficiaries of ecosystem services is an alternative to the conventional conservation strategies based on command-and-control mechanisms. It has the advantage of minimizing the need of government intervention (Pearce, 2004). Although PES initiatives are driven by conservation goals they have also the potential to be designed to be pro-poor, because poor providers of ecosystem services can benefit from payments made by richer buyers of these services (Rosa et al., 2004; Grieg-Gran 136 et al., 2005; Wunder, 2005; Pagiola et al., 2005a). Furthermore, several developing countries can contribute substantially for the provision of ecosystem services, whereas willingness to pay for these services is often found in developed countries (Pearce & Moran, 1994). There are of course several criticisms of PES. On the one hand, it is not clear as yet how effective these systems are for conservation (Wunder, 2007; Sanchez-Azofeifa, 2007). Furthermore, there are fears about potential negative social impacts on directly or indirectly affected communities, particularly the landless poor. For example, a literature review by Wunder (2006), notes that these systems can affect negatively the communities in their legitimate aspirations of land development, as well as their culturally not-for-profit conservation values. But, despite these possible problems, well-designed PES initiatives do have the exciting potential to achieve the dual objective of conservation and poverty alleviation, giving landowners the right incentives for sustained conservation (Pearce, 2004). In developing countries there are now a number of recent initiatives of PES, following the relative success of a pioneering Costa Rica experience that was initiated in 1997. By considering the possibility of PES systems of being an alternative approach to conventional mechanisms of conservation, it is worth investigating how these systems can be implemented in areas where failures of command-and-control mechanisms are most evident. Various examples are found within the Atlantic Forest biome in Brazil. Despite the existence of legislation for the protection of Atlantic Forest (Brasil, 2006; Brasil, 1965), many areas within that biome remain highly vulnerable to degradation. Such degradation is normally associated with high concentrations of people interacting with and impacting on natural resources. It was mentioned in Chapter 2 that more than 10% of the Brazilian population live in the region of the Cantareira System, within the boundaries of the Atlantic Forest biome. Chapter 3 revealed that the existing legislation to protect the forests has not been fully respected and the fragmented landscape is likely to continue to suffer from further losses of Atlantic Forest in the absence of corrective measures. Significant decline in some ecosystem services such as climate mitigation and conservation of soil and water are expected to occur as a consequence of the transformation in the landscape, according to estimates presented in Chapter 4. The value of the potential losses of 137 ecosystem services caused by removal of remnants of Atlantic Forest in that region are estimated to be higher than U$26 million per year as demonstrated in Chapter 5. The findings of these previous chapters are important in assisting with the potential for development of a PES mechanism in the region of Cantareira System. The effectiveness of a PES scheme in stimulating conservation or restoration of Atlantic Forest depends on various conditions: i) existence of sources of funds for the payments; ii) attractiveness of the PES system for providers of ecosystem services; and iii) development of a structure of governance for the payment mechanism. These conditions are discussed in detail in this chapter, which also explores the challenges and opportunities to integrate the currently available scientific information about ecosystem services with policy mechanisms for promoting conservation of Atlantic Forest in the lands around the Atibainha reservoir. 138 6.2 Pioneering initiatives of PES Some of the most developed pioneering experiences of PES systems in the world have been in operation in Costa Rica since 1997 (Miranda et al., 2006; Zbinden & Lee, 2005; Sanchez-Azofeifa, 2007; Kosoy et al., 2007). Understanding the obstacles and opportunities for these experiences is helpful for planning PES in other regions. The PES systems in Costa Rica derived from programs of incentives to reforestation in the decades of 1980 and 1990. These programs were created due to the decrease in timber supply associated to high rates of deforestation in the country. The incentives were initially based on tax rebates for large forestry companies and latter evolved to the creation of credits for farmers to invest in reforestation. Subsequently, the programs were extended towards non-reforestation activities such as forest management and protection of forests (Pagiola, 2002; Miranda et al., 2006). Four forestry laws were created over the years to facilitate the development of these systems of incentive. The first law, in 1969, was to incentive reforestation but without impeding deforestation. The second law, in 1986, restricted logging near a water channel and stimulated reforestation through the creation of forest credit certificates. The third law, in 1990, prohibited all land use changes and introduced the PES, focusing on the promotion of management of natural forest. Finally, the fourth law, in 1996, addressed PES to the protection of natural forests (Miranda et al., 2006). This last law has changed the source of funding from the government budget to payments from beneficiaries. Moreover, this law also created FONAFIFO, an agency to administer the program (Pagiola, 2002). In 2001, another law determined that FONAFIFO should receive 3.5% of the fossil fuel tax raised by the Costa Rican government and allocate these funds to the PES scheme. Other sources of funds have also contributed to FONAFIFO to a lesser extent, including sales of carbon reduction emission credits, the World Bank, a grant from the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), and private contracts with hydroelectric producers (Miranda et al., 2006; Pagiola, 2002). Based on the set of laws mentioned above the Costa Rican PES systems have been implemented through any of three possible types of contracts. The first required landowners to protect their forests for 5 years; the second to develop reforestation and 139 maintain the reforested areas for 15 years; and the third to adopt sustainable forest management practices, although this type of contract was later discontinued in 2000 (Sanchez-Azofeifa et al, 2007). These activities were paid on a per hectare basis, using the following reference values: U$201 per ha/year for forest protection, U$516 per ha/year for reforestation, and U$314 per ha/year for sustainable forest management (Miranda et al., 2006). In 2003, the plantation of trees (for agroforestry) was added into the set of eligible activities for payment. The value of U$0.60 per tree was adopted for this activity in agroforestry systems (Rosa et al., 2004). Four types of ecosystem services were recognized by the Forestry law: mitigation of climate change, watershed protection, biodiversity conservation, and protection of scenic beauty (Miranda et al., 2006). However, the initial Costa Rican PES contracts failed to recognize that different land uses can provide very different levels of these services (Pagiola et al., 2005). Rather than attempting to measure the services, it has been assumed that an identically valued bundle of these services is provided by each hectare of land (Sanchez-Azofeifa et al, 2007). Thus, one important challenge in the system might be to target particular ecological areas and differentiate payments accordingly. Landowners interested in participating in the PES program should submit various documents, including a map of their properties, to a regional office of MINAE, the Ministry of Environment and Energy. After the approval of MINAE a contract is prepared and payments are made by FONAFIFO once a year (Miranda, 2006). Through these contracts the landowners also transfer rights to the greenhose-gas-mitigation potential to the government (Sanchez-Azofeifa et al., 2007). From 1997 to 2001 the total area submitted to PES was 284,422 hectares, i.e. more than 5% of the territory of Costa Rica, including 239,620 hectares of forest protection, 18,737 hectares of reforestation, and 26,026 hectares of forest management (Zbinden & Lee, 2005). As it can be noted, the PES systems in Costa Rica have been developed in a gradual manner through both adapting programs and policies created previously for other purposes than the provision of ecosystem services, and developing complementary guidelines that made these systems attractive for the participants. These might be some of the important lessons to be considered for the success of implementation of PES in other regions of the world. However, in further analysing the success of PES systems in 140 terms of their governance and sustainability, it is crucial to verify if their main purpose of ensuring the provision of ecosystem services is being attained. A possible way for such verification is gathering information about additionality, i.e. the difference in service provision between the with-PES scenario and the without-PES scenario (Wunder, 2006). By developing an analysis of the impacts of PES program in Costa Rica, based on the spatial and temporal distribution of both PES contracts and land uses, Sanchez-Azofeifa et al (2007) found no impact of the concentration of PES contracts in the rate of deforestation. Moreover, these contracts were found to be concentrated mostly in hydrologic basins with little importance for the provision of water. Two possible issues should be considered for interpreting these results. The first is the fact that the PES contracts are fixed on a per hectare basis and no distinction is made among the various areas in terms of the importance for the provision of ecosystem services. The second issue is the possibility of lands with lower profitability to predominate in the program due to the lack of land use alternatives. In another study, Sierra & Russman (2006) have not detected impacts of the Costa Rican PES in the decision to conserve the forest, when PES and non-PES farms were compared. However, they found significant differences in farmers’ decision to allow the forest to regenerate in cleared areas. Further the provision of ecosystem services there are several other possible positive impacts from PES programs, including economic and social benefits (Landell-Mills & Porras, 2002). Economic benefits include: income from the PES, diversification of sources of income, and employment opportunities, among others. Social benefits refer to: social institution strengthening, improved recreational and cultural opportunities, knowledge and education, land tenure security, and skills development. Most of these benefits have been encountered in the Costa Rican PES program (Grieg-Gran et al., 2005). In summary, the Costa Rican PES systems are an important reference point due to their novelty and the abundance of lessons to be learned. Similar PES initiatives have now started in several other countries, including Ecuador, Chile, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, and Bolivia (Grieg_Grain et al., 2005; Rosa et al., 2004; Kosoy et al., 2007; Pagiola et al., 2002; Furtado et al., 1999). 141 6.3 PES initiatives in Brazil For the purposes of the current discussion the Brazilian initiatives relating to PES can be conveniently classified either as “individual experiences” or as “policies”, according to the extent of their coverage and to their governance strategy. Individual experiences of PES normally have a restricted area of implementation and their rules of governance are defined through negotiations involving the payer and the provider of ecosystem services, eventually with intermediation of an NGO. Examples include some projects of forest restoration with the purposes of removing carbon from the atmosphere. One of them has been implemented in the state of Mato Grosso, within the boundaries of the Amazonian Forest, financed by an automobile company (GiregGran, 2005; Yu, 2004). Another project has been implemented in the Atlantic Forest, in the state of Paraná, with funds from oil and energy companies (Tiepolo et al., 2002; Yu, 2004). These projects were initiated before the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and do not fit the eligibility criteria for generating carbon credits through the Clean Development Mechanism (IPCC, 2001). But even after the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, there is still an increasing interest in voluntary markets for carbon, i.e. in projects of carbon sequestration that are not submitted to the approval by CDM entities (Tayab, 2006). These voluntary initiatives can make a substantial contribution to overcoming one of the main challenges of the development of PES systems, which is the identification and maintenance of sources of payments for the services. One of the pioneering Brazilian initiatives of PES that can be classified as a policy is a federal program of rural development in the Amazonian Forest, known as “Proambiente”. This program has been planned for financing environmental costs that are defined as the additional costs of adapting productive systems of rural properties to fit criteria of sustainability. These costs are to be paid with resources from the “Fundo de Remuneração de Custos e Serviços Ambientais” (FRCSA). The FRCSA is a fund to be created from various national and international contributions, including government and private sources (Mattos, 2001). According to this author, the government source of funds for FRCSA should ideally come from the Ministry of Environment in order to ensure soundness, continuity, and credibility. 142 Unfortunately no public information was found about any specific source of funds already in operation for the Pro-ambiente program. Therefore one of the main challenges for the feasibility of this program is probably the creation of an effective fund for the payments. Other challenges, pointed out by Hirata (2006), include: the probable resistance of the government structure to the operation of programs with high complexity such as the Pro-ambiente; obstacles in achieving legal feasibility of payments for ecosystem services; and difficulties in scaling up pilot-programs for a broad coverage of Amazonia and other biomes. Another policy initiative of PES in Brazil is a program of incentives for sustainable uses of forest, called “Bolsa Floresta”, which is part of the climate change policy of the state of Amazonas (Amazonas, 2007). This program provides a monthly payment of R$50.00 to local residents that contribute to the preservation of the environment within protected areas. The funding of Bolsa Floresta comes from the Climate Change Fund, which was initiated in 2007 through an initial contribution of R$20 million (approximately U$9.3 million) from the state government. Revenues from this fund will be used in making the payments. In September 2006 one hundred families had received the monthly payments, and the government’s goal is to involve 60,000 families (http:// noticias.correioweb. com.br/materias.php?id=2719797&sub=Brasil, 17/09/2007). A third example of policy initiative for the PES schemes in Brazil is the development of a national policy for water resources (NPWR), and the creation in 1997 of the National System of Management of Water Resources (NSMWR). One of the main instruments of the NPWR is the system of charging for the use of water as described in Chapter 2. The purpose of this instrument is to recognize the economic value of water, to encourage its rational use, and to generate funds for programs and actions for water resources plans (Brasil, 1997). Within this framework, a programme that may drive funds for payments of ecosystem services is the “Programa Produtor de Água” (Water Producer Program), developed by the National Agency of Water which is one of the institutions that compose the NSMWR. This program differs from the previous two examples due to the fact that it has not been conceptualized specifically for the conditions of the Amazonian Forest. Another important difference is that it contains a procedure for quantifying environmental benefits according to land use and management. Specifically, estimates of reduction in erosion and sedimentation due to improvement of land use practices and 143 management are used to determine the values of payments for ecosystem services (Chaves et al., 2004a; Chaves et al., 2004b). The “Produtor de Água” program is being implemented in Extrema, which is a municipality in the State of Minas Gerais, less than 70 Km from Nazaré Paulista. Funds for this program are coming from a partnership between the city council of Extrema and the non-governmental organization “The Nature Conservancy”. Legal arrangements for its implementation have been made by the city council, including a law that creates a local programme for management of water resources (Extrema, 2005), a decree of law that establishes criteria for the program (Extrema, 2006a), and a decree of law that authorizes the city council to implement the system of payments (Extrema, 2006b). The three policy initiatives of PES exemplified above have been developed according to various site specific characteristics that must be understood for enabling the replication of such experiences to other regions. The development of PES systems to promote conservation of Atlantic Forest around the Atibainha reservoir can be inspired by these three examples, but it is important to be aware of some of their limitations. The “Proambiente” and “Bolsa Floresta” programmes are being implemented in areas of Amazonia where the forest is part of the productive system of local residents. Therefore these programmes can mostly influence decisions of how to manage the forests in a sustainable way rather than pure conservation. Furthermore, the size of rural plots of lands occupied by families in Amazonia is typically several times higher than in areas of Atlantic Forest. For example, the size of the holding of some families that participate in the Pro-Ambiente program in the State of Acre is larger than 100 hectares, whereas the average size of properties in Nazaré Paulista is less than 10 hectares. The criteria for evaluating the practices of land use and management suggested by Chaves et al. (2004a) for the “Produtor de Água” programme also have some restrictions in respect to the quantification of ecosystem services. The methods of quantification are most applicable in the productive areas of agriculture. There is a gap to be filled, which is the design of a PES system that considers quantification of ecosystem services both in productive lands and in forest areas that should be preserved, and not exploited for production. 144 The current chapter contributes to filling this gap by proposing a set of procedures that could be adopted for the development of PES systems around the Atibainha reservoir, both in forest and non-forest areas, using information obtained in this research such as the economic value maps of ecosystem services. 145 6.4 Ecosystem services and land uses for the proposed PES 6.4.1 Social and private benefits of land uses As explained in chapter 5, there are private and social benefits associated to the main land uses around the Atibainha reservoir. Their respective estimated economic values are presented in Table 6.1. These benefits can be classified as “ecosystem services” (ES), referring to benefits obtained from forest ecosystems, or as “productive systems” (PS), referring to profit obtained from cattle ranching or plantation of eucalyptus. Table 6.1 Total economic values obtained in scenarios of pasture, eucalyptus and native forest, and respective beneficiaries (values per year). Benefits Beneficiaries Pasture Eucalyptus Native forest Society U$176,310 U$10,380,300 U$49,421,110 Individuals U$11,818,377 U$6,497,597 U$00 U$11,994,687 U$16,877,897 U$49,421,117 Mitigation of climate change Conservation of soil and water Maintenance of soil fertility Ecosystem services Pharmaceutical uses Production of seeds Conservation of biodiversity Tourism Profits from productive systems Forestry production Pasturage TOTAL ECONOMIC VALUE If the landscape is managed in order to maximize the availability of ecosystem services, native forests will obviously predominate and, according to Table 6.1, the total economic value of the land use could hypothetically go up to U$49 million per year. Similarly, in hypothetical homogeneous land use scenarios determined by the opportunity costs of eucalyptus plantations and pastures, the total economic value of land use could potentially reach U$16,877,897 and U$11,994,687 per year, respectively, some much lower figure than under a forest land use scenario. The large extension of land presently occupied by pastures and eucalyptus evidences that land use decisions around the Atibainha reservoir have not been based upon the social benefits depicted in Table 6.1. But the capture of these values could occur and thereby the creation of real cash flows that can be used to compensate local land users for the provision of ecosystem services, through the development of systems of 146 payments for ecosystem services. This would allow the social benefits to “count” and to compete with the private benefits. 6.4.2 Possible eligible ecosystem services The values of ecosystem services obtained in chapter 5 can be used for planning PES schemes focused on each of the services individually, as well as on bundles of ecosystem services. However, it is essential to consider mitigation of climate change as an eligible service for the effectiveness of the PES system, because this is the only service whose value was found to be higher than the opportunity costs of cattle ranching and production of eucalyptus. The definition of which ecosystem services can be eligible for PES is probably more important in the proposed PES system around the Atibainha reservoir than in the Costa Rican systems. The reason is that, despite four categories of ecosystem services being considered eligible for payments in Costa Rica, these payments are made in a per hectare basis (Rosa et al., 2004) and do not consider variations in the provision of ecosystem services that may occur at different locations (Pagiola et al., 2005). The economic value maps produced in this thesis, by indicating with relative accuracy the spatial variations in ecosystem services values, constitute an important tool to be used in a potential PES system around the Atibainha reservoir. For the purposes of demonstrating the functionality of the PES system proposed in this thesis, the payments are being considered to be for bundles of ecosystem services, using the total economic values of all the services listed in Table 6.1. However, with the exception of mitigation of climate change, excluding some of the other less valuable services will probably not affect the functionality of the system. 6.4.3 Possible eligible activities In order to implement a PES system it is necessary to determine the activities that can be compensated by the payments. Only the services provided by natural forests are the focus of the proposed PES system, despite the fact that it was demonstrated in chapters 4 and 5 that other land uses such as eucalyptus can also substantially provide some services like carbon storage in trees. Two activities are being considered: restoration of natural forests and conservation of natural forests. These are also the activities currently considered for PES in Costa Rica (Sanchez-Azofeifa et al., 2007). 147 Forest management may not be considered in the study area because it is not permitted by the Atlantic Forest Law (Brasil, 2006). Agroforestry systems are not being considered either because they are not common among the current productive systems. Furthermore, their implementation would require substantial efforts in terms of technical assistance. 148 6.5 Law enforcement and the potential for PES In order to verify the feasibility of implementation of PES systems in the lands around the Atibainha reservoir it is necessary to consider some institutional and legal restrictions to non-forest land uses. Current institutional restrictions to non forest uses are associated with the remit of Sabesp, the water company, which holds approximately 20% of the land in the study area and, according to its scope, may not use the land for productive systems such as forestry and cattle ranching. On the other hand, legal restrictions refer to the Atlantic Forest Law and the Forest Code. The Atlantic Forest law states that mature remnants of Atlantic Forest have to be conserved (Brasil, 2006). The Forest Code is another law which determines that margins of water bodies, steep slopes and top of mountains have to be dedicated to conservation of forests. Such areas are called “Permanent Preservation Areas” (PPA). This is in addition to the “legal reserves” that correspond to 20% of the area beyond the PPA in every rural property (Brasil, 1965). But results presented in Chapter 3 show that the Forest Code and the Atlantic Forest Law are only partially enforced in the study area. Figure 6.1 presents a geographical interpretation of legislation and highlights areas of non-enforcement in approximately 50% of the areas of PPA. The map also shows deforestation in many lands of Sabesp, indicating that there is also a substantial non-observance of the institutional restrictions. Currently, there are 3,463 hectares of native forests outside PPA, but protected by the Atlantic Forest Law. Moreover, there are 3,058 hectares of PPA, including forest and non-forest areas. These areas together correspond to approximately 85% of the study area. Obviously, if the current command-and-control mechanisms, i.e. the forest legislation, were successful, conservation of local natural resources would not depend on further mechanisms such as PES. However, the identified failures in law enforcement highlight the importance of creating complementary conservation mechanisms. Command-and-control mechanisms and PES can coexist and be supportive of each other (Wunder, 2006). The opportunity cost of cattle ranching and pasturage, calculated in Chapter 5, are probably the main reasons for the non-compliance with the laws. PES 149 systems might be effective tools to promote law enforcement by awarding economic incentive to the conservation of ecosystem services, making them therefore privately more attractive. Furthermore, landowners would probably be more receptive to PES systems in areas where land use is limited, than in lands where agriculture, forestry and cattle ranching are permitted. It is important to consider the opportunity cost of land use, the values of payments for ecosystem services, the co-benefits of the PES system, and the desire of farmers to comply with the laws, for planning the integration of PES with the command-andcontrol mechanisms. For instance, if the values of PES are higher than the opportunity costs of cattle ranching and eucalyptus the PES system is likely to help in promoting law enforcement. If the value of PES is inferior to the opportunity cost of the productive systems, it might still be helpful due to the co-benefits of the PES system described above and a underlying possible desire of farmers to comply with the law. However, if the opportunity cost is perceived by the farmers as being higher than all these benefits taken together then the PES system is unlikely to work. 150 Figure 6.1 Geographic interpretation of forest laws, ownership of the water company and forest cover. 151 6.6 Potential providers of ecosystem services Five main categories of land users were identified in Chapter 2: the water company, cattle ranchers, eucalyptus farmers, private residents, and owners of hotels. The opportunity costs, incentives of PES, secondary benefits of PES systems, and desire to comply with law can vary among the different land owners or providers of ecosystem services. Recognizing the weight of these variables in the acceptability of PES by land users is useful for planning the implementation of the PES system. The importance of the PES system for the water company, as a landowner, can go beyond the interest in receiving the payments, mostly due to the direct environmental benefits experienced in relation to the improvement and maintenance of adequate environmental conditions for the production and storage of water. Furthermore, its desire to comply with law is expected to be high, considering that this company is controlled by the government! The water company does not obtain profit from productive systems such as eucalyptus and cattle ranching, therefore the opportunity cost in its lands can be ignored. Owners of hotels might also be receptive to PES systems as they also stand to benefit directly from environmental conservation. Forest conservation, as a result of the implementation of PES systems, can be helpful in maintaining the region attractive for their guests. Opportunity costs of productive systems such as eucalyptus or cattle ranching are not likely to have a substantial influence upon owners of hotels’ interest in PES systems as these are not their main activities. The weight of the variables that can influence the interest in PES might be similar between cattle ranchers and producers of eucalyptus. The environmental benefits per se are not likely to be important for these stakeholders. However, they might have some desire to comply the law. But they will very likely require a substantial complement of PES for overcoming the opportunity costs of their productive systems. Private residents might attribute high importance to the secondary benefits of PES because of the possible improvement in their welfare and living conditions. Opportunity costs, desire to comply with the law, and the payments are probably of low importance because their ownership is disassociated to profitability. 152 6.7 Potential buyers of ecosystem services Efforts to identify and diversify potential sources of funds are crucial for the maintenance of PES systems (World-Bank, 2006). In this chapter the various sources of funds are called “buyers of ecosystem services”. A classification of buyers of ecosystem services presented by Scherr et al. (2006) was adapted to this study in order to suggest who might be interested in financing the proposed PES system, i.e. where the willingness to pay for the provision of ecosystem services might lie. Four categories of buyers are being considered: philanthropic buyers, private buyers, international community, and public sector buyers. 6.7.1 Philanthropic buyers Philanthropic buyers are people motivated mostly by non-use values who want to contribute for the provision of ecosystem services. Some of them are concerned about finding ways to compensate their own emissions of CO2 in the atmosphere. In the region of the Atibainha reservoir, for instance, a local non-governmental organization, IPÊ – Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas, has been intensively searched by people who can be classified as philanthropic buyers because they want to contribute for the development of projects of restoration and conservation of Atlantic Forest (Claudio V. Padua, personal communication). Thus, a PES system can take advantage from these buyers by offering an opportunity to demonstrate, in a systematic way, how the funds can be effectively addressed to activities that result in the provision of ecosystem services. 6.7.2 Private buyers In a similar manner to the philanthropic buyers, there are some companies, called private buyers, interested in funding the provision of ecosystem services. Some of them are concerned about being neutral in their carbon emissions (Natura, 2007). Others might be interested in developing some kind of trading of ecosystem services such as carbon through official systems such as the Clean Development Mechanism (IPCC, 2001), or through voluntary initiatives. Some private buyers might also be interested in compensating some damages caused to the environment. In Brazil, the agreements of “environmental compensation” are known as TAC (“termo de ajuste de conduta”). They are normally determined by local 153 authorities such as the public prosecutor. The limited access of prosecutors to technical information about environment and conservation often restricts the definition of proper TACs (Ana Luiza T. Barros, personal communication). This restriction might be minimized through structured PES systems that incorporate TACs as one possible way for private buyers to pay for ecosystem services. Furthermore, the PES can facilitate the definition of forms of environmental compensation by indicating the benefits of PES quantitatively. 6.7.3 International Community The international community might be interested in financing activities in developing countries that benefit global community but which would not be undertaken in these countries without such support (Pearce, 2004). This is the case of the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), the World Bank, and some international nongovernmental organizations. The PES in Costa Rica, for instance, has received funds both from GEF and the World Bank (Sanchez-Azofeifa et al., 2007; Pagiola, 2002). 6.7.4 Public sector buyer Public sector buyer refers to funds that may come from the government budget or from taxes charged from the consumers of ecosystem services. The Brazilian policy of water resources management, using local mechanisms of charging for water use in the watershed where the Atibainha reservoir is located, is an example of public sector buyer. According to the detailed description of the functioning of this policy in Chapter 2, one of the purposes of the charging system of water is to allocate funds for the maintenance of public ecosystem services. 154 6.8 Institutional set-up Two institutional arrangements would be necessary for implementing the proposed PES system. The first is related to certification of ecosystem services and the second refers to the operation of the system. Certification of ecosystem services would be necessary to legitimate the procedures adopted for enabling their provision, measurement and verification. Details about these processes are presented in the next section. The operational arrangements are necessary for creating an institution that will constitute the interface between the buyers and the providers of ecosystem services. Further legal studies, beyond the scope of this thesis, would be necessary to determine which type of institution would most fit in legal terms with the needs of the PES system. This study considers as an example the possibility that such institution might be a cooperative for the purposes of demonstrating the operations of the proposed PES system. The reason for taking a cooperative as an example is the fact that cooperatives can sell services to third parties, whereas associates of the cooperative are compensated proportionally to the services they provide (Pastore, 2001). Three main types of professionals should compose the staff of this cooperative. The first, called “manager of PES scheme”, should have technical skills for assisting landowners in the preparation of projects and plans that fit with the principles and criteria of certification. The second is the one who will prepare agreement contracts for the buyers and providers of ecosystem services. The third type is the fund manager, who should have skills in economics and management for managing a fund to be created for the PES. 155 6.9 Certification of ecosystem services Socio-environmental certification is an economic tool which originated in the 1980s and 1990s from the public concerns about deforestation in the tropics and the environmental impacts of agriculture (Putz & Viana, 1996; Rametsteiner & Simula, 2003). It distinguishes products and processes that incorporate environmental, social, and economic interests. Certification standards consist of a set of rules that need to be observed for a product to be certified (Pinto & Prada, 2000). The standards consist of: i) principles, associated with the goals and objectives of the system which is being analyzed; ii) criteria, that describe a desired state or dynamics of the system; and iii) indicators, that enable objective verification of meeting the criteria (Poschen, 2000). Examples of certification in Brazil include 30 projects of forest management, 12 of which in natural forests and the remaining 18 in planted forests, in more than 1 million hectares, certified by Imaflora (Imaflora, 2005), which is a pioneer certifier in Brazil in the use of standards of the Forest Stewardship Council (Forest Stewardship Council, 2002). The effectiveness of the PES systems that have been emerging as an innovative approach to conservation of tropical forests also depends to some extent on the development of regulations and instruments that facilitate the involvement of various market actors (Sell et al., 2006). A possible way to meet these conditions is the development of a framework for certification of ecosystem services such as carbon storage and conservation of water and soil, inspired by the procedures that have already been developed for socio-environmental certification of products from forests and agriculture. The main goal of such a system of certification might be to promote land use decisions that ensure availability of ecosystem services. Technical and scientific knowledge, legitimization, participation of various actors, and social recognition are some of the main requisites for the development of standards of certification (Pinto & Prada, 2000). Some key suggestions of principles, criteria and indicators for the development of standards of certification of ecosystem services are presented in Table 6.2. These suggestions have been formulated according to: i) the goal of the system of certification, that is to promote land use decisions that ensure 156 availability of ecosystem services; ii) The findings from Chapters 4 and 5 in terms of the magnitude and value of ecosystem services; and iii) the observation of ecocertification schemes already in use such as the Forest Stewardship Council (Forest Stewardship Council, 2002). The suggested standards can be replaced or changed in the future, but will be used in this study for the purposes of formulating recommendations about how to create PES systems in the Atlantic Forest. Compliance with forest laws is the first principle suggested. The two main forest laws, i.e. the Forest Code (Brasil, 1965) and the Atlantic Forest Law (Brasil, 2006), are the criteria related to this principle. The indicators of attendance of these criteria are the verification of compliance to legal obligation of maintenance of forest cover in some determined locations. The management strategies of the forest to be conserved or restored are the second principle. They refer both to activities planned by the landowner to avoid threats such as fire and to the observance of how some characteristics of landscape are being considered by the proposed project. For instance, within the rural property there might be some areas where the proposed activities of forest conservation and restoration are more appropriate by facilitating the connectivity of forest fragments that are isolated in the landscape. Such analysis of landscape is sometimes important for ensuring living conditions of wildlife. The third principle is the maintenance of ecosystem services. Analysis of variations in land use and consultation of the maps of spatial distribution of ecosystem services, produced in Chapters 4 and 5, will enable to determine the possible contribution of land uses for the provision of ecosystem services. This analysis is crucial for further determining the values of ecosystem services, as well as their respective payments. The fourth principle refers to monitoring of ecosystem services. The project must have a monitoring plan that enables one to verify if the purposes of provision or maintenance of ecosystem services are being achieved. Two ecosystem services were selected as indicators: mitigation of climate change and prevention of sedimentation. The choice of these indicators is due to their relevance to the study area and to the ease in applying methods of measurement, such as estimates of carbon stocks and estimates of sediment delivery. 157 Table 6.2 Suggested principles, criteria and indicators for the development of a system of certification of ecosystem services. Principle Criteria Indicator Proportion of forests in river margins Proportion of forests in reservoir margins Compliance with forest laws Observance of the Forest Code Proportion of forests on hilly slopes Proportion of forests on top of mountains Officially registered legal reserves Proportion of forests in legal reserves Observance of the Atlantic Forest Law Maintenance of forests that are at certain stages of development according to criteria determined by the Atlantic Forest Law Control of threats Proper measures taken for preventing fire Landscape planning Forest conservation and/or restoration according to guidelines of landscape planning Maintenance of ecosystem services Optimal contribution for maintenance of ecosystem services Proportion of the maximum possible contribution for the maintenance of ecosystem services Monitoring of ecosystem services Quantification of ecosystem services Management strategies Fences to prevent entrance of cattle in the forest Carbon storage Sedimentation prevented Further to the development of standards as described above, a system of certification requires an institutional structure composed of certification and accreditation bodies (Pinto & Prada, 2000). Certification bodies – also called certifiers – are independent organizations skilled to assess if the standards’ requirements are being met. The accreditation body has the task of ensuring that the certifiers are working properly (Nussbaum, 2003). Certification standards and accompanying institutional arrangements can be of relevance to both providers and payers of ecosystem services in initiatives involving forest conservation and restoration. In the next section they are incorporated in a proposed structure for PES systems in the Atlantic Forest. 158 6.10 Suggested structure of PES In this section a possible structure for a system of PES in the Atibainha reservoir area is proposed, integrating the various aspects discussed in previous sections: providers of ecosystem services, buyers, certification, policies and legislation. The suggested scheme considers bundles of ecosystem services for trading. These bundles are composed by the following services: mitigation of climate change, conservation of soil and water, maintenance of soil fertility, pharmaceutical uses, production of seeds, conservation of biodiversity, and tourism. Landowners would be eligible for receiving payments for the provision of these ecosystem services by developing two possible activities: conservation or restoration of native forests. The values of the payments would be defined through consulting both the total economic value map of ecosystem services and the tables of values of ecosystem services per catchment, presented in Chapter 5 (Figure 5.8 and Appendix 5.2). Therefore, the value of payments for the same bundle of ecosystem services per unit of area would vary according to the spatial location by considering the influence of local environmental variables in the availability of ecosystem services. This differentiation procedure would overcome the failures noted by Pagiola et al. (2005) and by SanchezAzofeifa et al. (2007) in the Costa Rican PES system, i.e. negligence to variations among different areas in the provision of ecosystem services, as discussed previously. Considering that the availability of funds for PES is normally restricted, it might not be possible to establish values of payments equivalent to the total economic value of the ecosystem services being traded. However, capturing the total value of the ecosystem services is actually not required for the PES system to work. What is needed is solely that the payments exceed the opportunity costs of alternative land uses. Flowcharts are helpful for illustrating the interconnection of the various agents and stages of PES as well as for demonstrating the logical framework of the functioning of a system of PES. Indeed, flowcharts have been used to describe previous PES schemes, including the PES system in Costa Rica (Furtado et al., 1999; Pagiola, 2004), the “Produtor de Água” programme in Brazil (2004a), and an illustrative scheme proposed by Ditt et al. (2007) that integrates providers of ecosystem services (i.e. farmers) with potential sources of PES. These studies have provided the basis for the flowchart 159 presented in Figure 6.2. This flowchart represents a proposal for a possible PES scheme in the land around the Atibainha reservoir. The scheme would work as follows. A potential provider of ecosystem services, i.e. landowner, would contact the manager of PES. An initial analysis of suitability would be made by the PES Manager for further determining which type of proposal, i.e. forest restoration or conservation, can be prepared. The manager of PES would provide the landowner with guidelines and assistance in preparing the proposal for a conservation plan or a forest restoration project. The proposal would then be submitted for a preliminary review by an external certifier. After the approval of the proposal in this first stage of certification, the map of values of ecosystem services produced in chapter 5 would be consulted for determining the values of the ecosystem services in the proposal. Then the proposal would be delivered to the cooperative of ecosystem service farmers. The participation of a provider of ecosystem service could be planned simultaneously with the participation of the buyer if the trade occurs through a bilateral agreement. Or, it could be planned independently, if the buyer contributes to a fund which will further address the payments to the providers of ecosystem services. The buyer would join in the PES system in a similar way to the provider. Initial contacts would be made between the PES manager and the potential buyer for an initial analysis of feasibility of his participation. If the feasibility is confirmed a proposal of purchase of ecosystem services would be prepared according to the buyers’ profile. It is important for the sustainability of the system that it is flexible enough to accommodate the interests of different potential buyers of ecosystem services, discussed in section 7 of this chapter. Such interests can be associated, for example, with mitigation or neutralization of carbon emissions, compliance to agreements of environmental compensation, voluntary support to conservation, applying financial resources raised from taxes and policies for provision of ecosystem services, etc. Potential buyers of ecosystem services include individuals, private companies, nongovernmental organizations, government agencies, international organizations, and virtual groups (collaborators through the internet). The proposal to purchase ecosystem services would also have to be delivered to the cooperative of ecosystem service farmers. 160 After any proposal, either the provider’s or the buyer’s, is delivered to the cooperative of ecosystem service farmers, an agreement could be formalized through a contract. Contracts with buyers might be formalized at any time, whereas contracts with providers would be formalized as soon as the funds become available. The restoration or conservation project should start right after the agreement is signed. Some time after the start the project or plan would be submitted to a second assessment by the certifier so that initial results can be monitored. The approval of the certifier in this second stage is a pre-condition for certificates of provision of ecosystem services to be issued. The certificates would legitimatize the effectiveness of the PES system. 161 6.11 Challenges for implementation of PES One of the main difficulties faced by PES systems is the need to ensure the existence of sustainable and continuous sources of funds. Several types of potential buyers need to be identified, and the PES systems must be planned to facilitate their participation. Credibility and transparency in the procedures that demonstrate the effectiveness of the provision of ecosystem services have also to be carefully considered. The lack of standards in the voluntary market for carbon, for instance, is cited by Capoor & Ambrosi (2007) as a risk to the reputation of the entire market. Attention to all these requirements can be facilitated by the procedures for certification and the logical framework of PES system described in this study. It has reasonable flexibility for enabling the participation of various possible buyers of ecosystem services, according to arrangements made by the PES manager. The logical sequence of procedures presented in the flowchart (Figure 6.2) and the maps of ecosystem services and their values developed in earlier chapters constitute useful tools for the implementation of PES systems. These maps are also useful for the certification procedures that add transparency and credibility to the scheme. Certificates for provision of ecosystem services, issued by certification bodies with recognized credibility, can add value to the investments in these initiatives. The recent development of policy for water resources in Brazil is likely to result in the emergence of a source of substantial resources for PES. The proposed PES scheme in Figure 2 is helpful for promoting an effective use of some of these resources. The proposed system of PES is also flexible in relation to the participation of private and public sector. For instance, it can be incorporated in some policy of broad coverage as well as used in a private bilateral initiative involving only one buyer and one provider of ecosystem services. The development of both public and private PES systems, with similarities in their logical framework, is convenient for scaling up the human actions towards the provision and maintenance of ecosystem services. In both public and private initiatives the operational costs, such as the maintenance of a cooperative of ecosystem services and the PES manager, must be considered. More studies are necessary for detailing these costs and for revealing how to maximize the available resources for direct expenses with the provision of ecosystem services. 162 The accounting of costs and benefits related to the provision of ecosystem services and the incorporation of these costs in the PES systems, as undertaken in this study, is an essential pre-requisite of PES. 163 Potential buyer (financer) of ecosystem services is detected Landowner interested in managing his area for receiving PES Manager of PES scheme analyzes suitability of the area Report of the detected limitations is sent to landowner NO Manager of PES scheme analyzes feasibility of participation of the potential buyer Report of the detected limitations is sent to potential buyer Area suitable for PES scheme? YES Project proposal of forest restoration is prepared Feasibility of potential buyer confirmed? NO RESTORATION Which type of management is required? YES CONSERVATION Proposal of PES is prepared by the manager of PES and the potential buyer Proposal of conservation plan for the area is prepared Submission of proposals to a certifier Analysis of proposals by the certifier PROPOSAL REFUSED Submission of proposal to cooperative of ecosystem services farmers for PES PROPOSAL APPROVED Use map of ecosystem services and their values for defining values of PES Submission of proposal to cooperative of ecosystem services farmers for receiving PES Revision of procedures IMPLEMENTATION REFUSED Formal agreements with buyer and provider of ecosystem services are prepared through the cooperative Implementation of project or plan Analysis of project or plan by a certifier IMPLEMENTATION APPROVED Certificate of ecosystem services is issued EFFECTIVE PES Figure 6.2. Flowchart of the suggested system of payments for ecosystem services 164 6.12 Conclusions This chapter has presented a set of recommendations of how to implement a PES system in the region of the Atibainha reservoir, using information obtained in the previous chapters. By considering the economic value maps, which indicate the magnitude of the provision of ecosystem services and their respective economic value at any point of the landscape, the proposed system allows us to optimize the use of PES funds because the funds can be targeted according to the spatial variations in the provision of ecosystem services. Therefore, sites more valuable in terms of the provision of ecosystem services can be identified and efforts of conservation and restoration can be targeted to these sites and properly compensated. This is one important factor which distinguishes the proposed system from other PES systems such as the Costa Rican (Sanchez-Azofeifa et al., 2007; Wunder, 2007). Moreover, the structure of PES constructed in this study could fit the interests of both policies and private initiatives of PES. Policies can be highly benefited from these market systems because of the potential improvement in enforcement of forest laws. If these systems are implemented they could be the first policy mechanism providing an ability to compete with the opportunity costs of productive systems in the region of Atibainha reservoir. The policies focused on water resources can also benefit from this study because the proposed structure of PES indicates how the resources of charging for the use of water could be best allocated in favour to the provision of ecosystem services. Private initiatives of PES can also benefit from this study by adopting the suggested procedures for planning and implementing projects of conservation and restoration of native forests, following proper guidelines of quantification and demonstration of the obtained benefits, certification, and negotiation between buyers and providers of ecosystem services. Finally, this study has produced a systematic scheme which could be helpful for legitimatizing the PES as an innovative and possibly effective way to finance conservation. Further research is needed beyond the proposed scheme for PES establishment and verification, to understand the issues in depth in the aforementioned remaining research 165 issues. This will require a broader geographical coverage within the Atlantic Forest biome. 166 6.13 References Amazonas, 2007. Lei Estadual 3135 de 04 de junho de 2007. Assembléia Legislativa, Manaus. Brasil, 1965. Codigo Florestal Brasileiro: lei 4771 de 15 de setembro de 1965. Câmara dos Deputados, Brasília. Brasil, 1997. Lei 9433 de 08 de janeiro de 1997. Câmara dos Deputados, Brasília. Brasil, 2006. Lei da Mata Atlântica: lei Federal 11428 de 22 de dezembro de 2006. Câmara dos Deputados, Brasília. Capoor K., Ambrosi P., 2007. State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2007. The World Bank, Washington. Chaves H.M.L., Braga B., Domingues A. F., Santos D., 2004a. Quantificação dos beneficios ambientais e compensações financeiras do Programa do Produtor de Água (ANA): Teoria. Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos, 9(3): 5-14. Chaves H.M.L., Braga, B., Santos, D., Domingues, A. F., 2004b. Quantificação dos beneficios ambientais e compensações financeiras do Programa do Produtor de Água (ANA): Aplicação. Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hidricos, 9(3): 15-21. Ditt E.H., Mourato S., Knight J., 2007. Translating ecosystem services science into guidelines for Brazilian decision makers. 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IV Encontro Nacional da Sociedade Brasileira de Economia Ecológica (ECOECO), Belém. Miranda M., C. Dieperink, and P. Glasbergen, 2006. Costa Rican environmental service payments: The use of a financial instrument in participatory forest management. Environmental Management, 38:562-571. 168 Natura, 2007. A Natura e o Carbono Neutro: Pensamento no futuro – todo o futuro. Natura, Cajamar. Nussbaum R., 2003. A practical guide to developing a group scheme for FSC – accredited certification of forests. Proforest, Oxford. Pagiola S., Arcenas A., Platais G., 2005. Can Payments for Environmental Services Help Reduce Poverty? An Exploration of the Issues and the Evidence to Data from Latin America. World Development, 33 (2): 237-253. Pagiola S., P. Agostini, J. Gobbi, C. de Haan, M. Ibrahim, E. Murgueitio, E. Ramirez, M. Rosales, and J. P. Ruiz, 2005. Paying for Biodiversity conservation services Experience in Colombia, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. Mountain Research and Development, 25:206-211. Pagiola S., 2004. Paying for Water Services in Central America: Learning from Costa Rica. In: Pagiola, S.; Bishop, J.; Landell-Mills, N. Selling Forest Environmentla Services: Market-based Mechanisms for Conservation and Development. Earthscan, London. Pastore J., 2001. Cartilha sobre cooperativas de trabalho. Confederação Nacional da Indústria, Brasília. Pearce D. W., 2004. Environmental market creation: saviour or oversell? Portuguese Economic Journal, 3:115-144. Pinto L. F. G., Prada L., 2000. Fundamentos da certificação socioambiental. In: Marcelo Paixão; José Maria Ferraz; Laura Prada. (Org.). Certificação socioambiental do setor sucroalcooleiro. Imaflora/FASE/Embrapa, São Paulo. Pearce D., Moran D., 1994. The economic Value of Biodiversity. Earthscan Publications Ltd, London. Poschen P., 2000. Forest Certification Working Paper No. 3: Social Criteria and Indicators for Sustainable Forest Management. GTZ-Programme Office for Social and Ecological Standards, Eschborn. 169 Putz F.E., Viana V., 1996. Biological challenges for certification of Tropical Timber. Biotropica, 28(3): 323-330. Rametsteiner E., Simula M., 2003. Forest certification: an instrument to promote forest management? Journal of Environmental Management, 67: 87-98. Rosa H., S. Kandel, and L. Dimas, 2004. Compensation for environmental services and rural communities: lessons from the Americas. International Forestry Review, 6:187194. Sanchez-Azofeifa G.A., Pfaff A., Robalino J.A., Boomhower J.P., 2007. Costa Rica's Payment for Environmental Services Program: Intention, Implementation, and Impact. Conservation Biology, 21(5):1165-73. Scherr S.J., Bennett M.T., Loughney M., Canby K., 2006. Developing future ecosystem service payments in China: lessons learned from international experience. Forest Trends, Washington. Sell J., Koellner T., Weber O., Pedroni L., Scholz R.W., 2006. Decision criteria of European and Latin American market actors for tropical forestry projects providing environmental services. Ecological Economics, 58:17-36. Taiyab N., 2006. Exploring the market for voluntary carbon offsets. International Institute for Environment and Development, London. Tiepolo G., Calmon M., Ferreti A., 2002. Measuring and Monitoring Carbon Stocks at the Guaraqueçaba Climate Action Project, Parana, Brasil. International Symposium on Forest Carbon Sequestration and Monitoring. Extension Serie No. 153 (p 98-115) Taiwan Forestry Research Institute. Tognetti S. S., B. Aylward, and G. F. Mendoza, 2005. Markets for Watershed Services. In: Anderson M.G. (Ed) Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences. Wiley, USA. World-Bank, 2006. Costa Rica Mainstreaming Market Based Instruments for Environmental Management Project. World Bank, Washington. Wunder S., 2006. Are direct payments for environmental services spelling doom for sustainable forest management in the tropics? Ecology and Society, 11(2):23. 170 Wunder S. V. E. N., 2007. The Efficiency of Payments for Environmental Services in Tropical Conservation. Conservation Biology, 21:48-58. Yu C.M., 2004. Sequestro florestal do carbono no Brasil: dimensões políticas socioeconômicas e ecológicas. In: Sanqueta, C. et al. (Eds.) Fixação de carbono: Atualidades, projetos e pesquisas. UFPR/ Instituto Ecoplan, Curitiba. Zbinden S. and D. R. Lee, 2005. Paying for Environmental Services: An Analysis of Participation in Costa Rica's PSA Program. World Development, 33:255-272. 171 CHAPTER 7 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION 7.1 Purpose of the thesis This thesis has contributed to improving the knowledge about how land use decisions around the Atibainha reservoir can affect human welfare through the improvement, or damage, to ecosystem services. Furthermore, it has suggested a range of land use strategies that favour the provision of ecosystem services. These broad objectives of the thesis were accomplished through the development of multidisciplinary studies aimed at achieving the five specific objectives, as described below. The first objective was to evaluate the role that legislation made to the provision of ecosystem services. To achieve this, a descriptive analysis of laws that regulate land use and conservation of natural resources was carried out, followed by a quantitative analysis of the impacts of the failure of law enforcement using a geographic information system. The land use patterns that have developed as a result of failures in law enforcement were translated into losses of ecosystem services by considering the physical assessments of these services within the different land use categories. Assessing the provision of ecosystem services in various land uses was the second objective. Physical assessments were made of four ecosystem services: carbon storage in biomass of trees, prevention of sedimentation in water bodies, maintenance of soil fertility, and maintenance of chemical quality of water. Determining the economic values of the main land uses was the third objective and achieving this objective was a prerequisite for understanding the financial forces that determine land use ultimately leading to a decline or increase in the provision of ecosystem services. The economic values of both ecosystem services and the profits that individuals obtain from the different production systems associated with the land uses allows a direct comparison of the costs and benefits of any particular land use. Profits were estimated through analysis of data collected in interviews with farmers and the 172 total economic value of ecosystem services was determined by applying a set of methods of economic valuation. The fourth specific objective was to characterize land users in terms of the use and provision of ecosystem services. Five categories of land users with different interests were identified: the water company, cattle ranchers, eucalyptus farmers, hotel owners, and residents. Their roles as providers or beneficiaries of ecosystem services were assessed based upon the values of individual and social benefits and the implications of this discussed with respect to land use. The final objective was to propose land use guidelines and mechanisms which would safeguard the provision of ecosystem services. In order to achieve this objective a scheme for a mechanism of payment for ecosystem service was formulated, using the results of the various components of this thesis. This scheme is not only applicable to this specific case but also more widely applicable to other areas facing similar development pressures. 173 7.2 Summary of findings 7.2.1 Analysis of landscape referenced by watersheds The analysis and interpretation of contour maps, using a geographic information system, enabled the delineation of 188 catchments around the Atibainha reservoir that composed the study area. The partitioning of the study area in small catchments, besides being used in this study, is also now available for further studies of this area that may require information about the watershed. 7.2.2 Law enforcement and policy opportunities It was demonstrated that efforts to date for the development of proper land use policies in the region of the Atibainha reservoir still have not resulted in effective conservation of forest and water resources. The Forest Code, for instance, which is the main federal law for the conservation of forests, has been poorly observed. Therefore, some policy opportunities must be explored in order to facilitate both the conservation of forest and water resources, and the adherence to the forest code. One of these opportunities is associated with the recent development of a policy for water resources, which is creating a legal framework for the creation of PES schemes based on resources obtained from charging for the consumption of water (Brasil, 1997). Part of these resources might be used to encourage conservation. The development of a number of PES schemes simultaneously in other regions of the country such as in Amazonia (Mattos, 2001; Amazonas, 2007), has been contributing both to the dissemination of this innovative strategy among decision makers and to improve knowledge of its application. 7.2.3 Physical estimates of ecosystem services having indirect use values According to the results of this study the provision of ecosystem services declines in the following order of land use: native forests, eucalyptus plantations, pastures, and bare soil or urban areas. Looking at the individual services it was discovered that approximately 329 thousand tons of carbon are stored in above ground biomass of trees as a result of the current land uses in the study area. Of this, 95% is in the native forests and the remaining 5% is in plantations of eucalyptus and it is therefore reasonable to expect that removal of these forests would cause a release of approximately 1.2 million tons of CO2 in the atmosphere. 174 Sedimentation of the Atibainha reservoir can also be substantially affected by land use changes. If the surrounding lands of the reservoir were entirely occupied by pasture, more than 1,400 tons of sediment could be delivered in the reservoir every year. However, if the lands were entirely occupied by native forests or eucalyptus the sedimentation could be reduced to 67 tons or 9 tons of soil per year, respectively. Influences of land use on soil fertility were detected when native forests were compared with other uses such as eucalyptus and pastures, in terms of the content of organic matter. Forest conversion could result in a decline of 25% of the average content of organic matter from 56 to 42 grams per cubic decimetre of soil. Such a decline could affect the availability of nitrogen for plants and, consequently, the development of the forests and the provision of various ecosystem services. 7.2.4 Mapping economic values of ecosystem services Human interventions in the landscape of the study area in the past five centuries have resulted in the conversion of the homogeneous native forest into a mosaic of various land uses. If the original native forest had been maintained the total economic value (TEV) of land use would be U$49.4 million/year. However, as a consequence of changes that occurred to the landscape, the estimated total economic value of current land use in the study area is only 60% of this value, i.e. U$30.7 million/year. Ecosystem services account for U$26 million/year, i.e. 85% of the TEV of current land uses. These services include carbon storage (U$24.1 million/year), prevention of sedimentation in the lake (U$177 thousand/year), maintenance of soil fertility (U$6 thousand/year), provision of tourism (U$1.2 million/year), biodiversity conservation (U$234 thousand/year), option values of pharmaceutical uses (U$581/year), and option value of production of seeds (U$205/year). The remaining 15% of the current TEV of current land uses are associated with profits obtained from productive systems, including grazing of pasture (U$3.9 million/year) and production of eucalyptus (U$735 thousand/year). Despite the fact that land users and policy makers normally only recognize the values related to productive systems, the values of ecosystem services uncovered in this study are substantially higher than the values of productive systems. Therefore, the revelation of these values can be used in promoting the recognition of land use values beyond pasturage and production of eucalyptus. The spatial representation of the values in the 175 economic value maps can be used to specifically target areas of high ecosystem service value, for conservation, or suffering degradation, for remedial action. 7.2.5 Proposal of PES mechanism One of the main outcomes of this study is the set of recommendations for the development of a PES system in the study area. Through this system, landowners could receive payments if they conserve or restore native forests in their properties. The values of the payments would vary according to the location of the forest to be conserved or restored, because of the spatial variation in the availability of ecosystems that may occur. The economic value maps of ecosystem services could be consulted for identifying such variations in values. The activities related to forest conservation or restoration should be submitted to a process of certification. The payments could originate from philanthropic buyers of ecosystem services, private sector, public sector, and the international community. In order to organize the interface between the buyers and the providers of ecosystem services, some institutional arrangements are proposed, including the creation of a cooperative of producers of ecosystem services. 176 7.3 Strengths, limitations and future research Identifying strengths and limitations of the studies of this thesis is helpful for designing complementary studies, as well as for proposing actions and policies. Some of the main limitations and strengths are listed in table 7.1. One of the main limitations, which requires further investigation, is the lack of a database which enables land users to be identified individually – such lack of information is also a problem faced by official agencies that control documentation of land properties. To produce this database it would be necessary to visit each rural property to collect data on the extent and locations, using GPS equipment. This activity was not developed due to limitation of time. Therefore, this study has focused on categories of land users, rather than on individuals. Estimates of profits obtained by land users are considered to be the second limitation. Only profits from production of eucalyptus and from cattle ranching have been considered. Despite these being the main economic activities, investigation of other productive systems can be helpful for interpreting the opportunity costs of land use. The third limitation is the use of data obtained in the literature about some ecosystem services that have been transferred to this study. Developing specific studies in the region for valuing some ecosystem services, specifically those of option values and non use values, would be useful for improving the estimates of TEV. Research of procedures of certification applied to ecosystem services constitutes the fourth limitation. This thesis presents only some general guidelines for developing such procedures. Their improvement requires further specific research. Seven main strengths and opportunities can be identified in the thesis: The first is the production of a consistent GIS database containing information of several environmental variables. The second is the proposal of a criteria based on watershed concepts for studying the landscape. Despite the simplicity of these procedures for partitioning the landscape, they have been adopted for the first time in this study for assessing total economic value of ecosystem services. 177 The third strength refers to the geographic interpretation of laws, which has been important both for the continuation of the research and for purposes of policy. Estimates of carbon constitute the fourth strength. Such estimates were based on an extensive collection of data of vegetation, and the obtained results have various possible applications, including the indication of the potential of the local forests to contribute to mitigate climate change. Estimates of total economic value of land uses are the fifth strength of this work, due to the novelty and also the importance of the obtained information. These estimates enable an analysis of the consequences of land use changes on human welfare. The economic value maps are the sixth strength. These maps translate into a cartographic language the results of various investigations of influence of land uses on human welfare. Through revealing at any point of the landscape the economic values corresponding to the impacts of land use changes, they can be used for various purposes of research and policy. Finally, the seventh strength of this thesis is the set of recommendations to support the development of PES schemes in the study area, which is one of the main purposes of this research. Table 7.1 Strengths and limitations of the current research Limitations/ Future research Strengths/ opportunities GIS database Individual identification of landusers Estimates of profits from productive systems Transfering benefits from literature Certification of ecosystem services Landscape partitioning Geographic interpretation of laws Estimates of carbon stocks TEV of land uses Economic value maps Recommendations for PES scheme 178 7.4 Applicability beyond the study area There is an increasing awareness of the necessity of scientific basis for policies to prevent decline in ecosystem services in regions where ecosystems have been severely modified by humans (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2000). Although this study was concerned with land use and the provision of ecosystem services in a specific region in south-eastern Brazil the applicability of the findings goes beyond the area selected. The methodology that has been developed and the resulting recommendations should have a wider applicability to research and policy initiatives elsewhere in the world. In order to better understand the contribution of this research beyond the area around the Atibainha reservoir it is useful to consider five aspects of the research: the ecosystem services analysis framework, analysis of land use policies, ecosystem services assessments, valuation of ecosystem services, and PES mechanisms. 7.4.1 Ecosystem services analysis framework The integration of various aspects of research and policy related to provision of ecosystem services was possible in this study due to the formulation of an interacting framework composed of eight steps, which indicate how the findings can be applied in further research that aims to address the problem of ecosystem services loss in other regions. The first step is to make a general analysis for characterizing potential threats to the provision of ecosystem services. Depending on the study area these threats can be associated with various factors such as policies, history of degradation, fragility of habitats, and among others, conflicts of land use. In step 2 it is necessary to carry out a survey of local environmental variables and maps for producing a GIS database that will be used in various analyses in the following steps. For instance, the control of information about land use, slope, soils and rivers, is necessary to identify gaps of local information, as well as to plan some surveys for obtaining complementary data. The study area can be delineated in step 3 using information that was compiled through the GIS database. The procedures adopted in this thesis, of digitizing contour lines for 179 identification of catchments can be a convenient way to delineate the area to be focused on by other studies. Step 4 consists of a geographic interpretation of legislation and policies related to land use. Mapping areas that are protected by legislation as well as areas that are vulnerable to degradation due to the absence of proper policies will be helpful in the further recommendations of policies. The information about failures in land use policies revealed in this thesis can also be useful in other regions within the Atlantic Forest biome, where land uses are regulated by the same set of laws. The fifth step consists of physical estimates of ecosystem services. In the current research three main procedures for assessing ecosystem services have been developed or improved and may be applied in several other studies in tropical forests. The first refers to estimates of carbon stocks, using methods of survey of vegetation integrated with GIS. The second is the estimation of sedimentation in the various catchments of the area. The third is the assessment of soil fertility in different land use scenarios. The choice of the ecosystem services to be assessed depends on availability of information of local environmental variables, methods for carrying the assessments, and importance of the ecosystem services in the study area. In step 6 the economic values of the main land uses of the study area have to be determined, including those associated to the provision of ecosystem services and other possible values such as the profits obtained from agriculture. Each land use may require a specific method of assessment, which has to be defined during the research. By integrating estimates of economic values with land use maps in GIS a set of economic value maps of land uses has to be produced. An investigation of the main land users in the study area must be developed in step 7 for revealing the interests upon which land use decisions are made. The land users have to be classified according to their interest of land uses and ideally the areas that they control have to be mapped in GIS. In step 8 all the information obtained during the research has to be analysed in order to develop land use guidelines and to produce recommendations of land use policies. If policies based on PES are being considered it is possible to take advantage of the PES system which is being proposed in this thesis. 180 7.4.2 Analysis of land use policies The characterization of land use policies and their implications for conservation of water and forest resources, made in this study, provides two major contributions for further work. The first is the procedure developed for a quantitative analysis of effectiveness of policies through the combination of geographic interpretation of legislation with a catchment based partitioning of the landscape. Such criteria for partitioning the landscape is due to the fact that the watershed is recognized as the best planning unit for land resource development because it allows considering patterns of size, shape, topography, drainage, soil, and land use (Adinarayana et al., 1995; Santos, 2006). Similar analyses are feasible in other areas through using local topographic maps for delineating the watersheds and surveying local land use policies. The geographic interpretation of legislation in the area of this study was based on the rules of the Forest Code (Brasil, 1965) and the Atlantic Forest Law (Brasil, 2006) because these laws were recognized as the main components of the local land use policies. However, in other regions it may be necessary to consider other criteria such as the limits of protected areas. The second major contribution refers to the lessons learned from the failures and opportunities associated to land use policies that were identified. Despite the existence of some policies composed by a set of laws and rules, many of them addressing the real local environmental issues, results of this thesis reveal that they fail in achieving the purpose of conservation, confirming the limitations of command-and-control mechanisms (Holling & Meffe, 1996). Rather than neglecting these policies, it is worth exploring complementary mechanisms that may contribute to their enforcement. The development of research and policies in other regions can benefit from this thesis through understanding the failures identified and the opportunities of complementary mechanisms that were explored. For instance, the legal obligation to maintain native forests around water bodies, i.e. the Permanent Preservation Areas, is crucial. However, the proper enforcement of this rule depends on complementary efforts such as the proposed PES mechanisms. In a similar manner, the legislation related to policy of water resources addresses real issues of depletion of water resources, despite some gaps of knowledge and policy were 181 identified for achieving a proper destination of resources of water charging. The awareness of such gaps, as well as of the opportunities that may derive from these policies, is helpful for developing further water policies. 7.4.3 Ecosystem services assessments Despite many PES systems having been implemented around the world (Pagiola, 2004; Sanchez-Azofeifa et al., 2007), there are several knowledge gaps related to methods for verification and quantification of ecosystem services. The lack of such methods can be a threat to the efficiency of some PES systems. This thesis contributes to filling this gap through the procedures that were developed for the physical assessments of ecosystem services, mostly those related to mitigation of climate change and sediment delivery in water bodies. Some equations have been developed by Brown et al. (1984) and Brown (1997) that use data on diameters of trees to estimate the above ground biomass and stocks of carbon in tropical forests. In this thesis the biomass equations were integrated with procedures for mapping ecosystem services (Bateman et al., 2002) for a spatial representation of the benefits of mitigation of climate change associated with land use at any point in the landscape. Furthermore, the control in GIS of information about variation in forest physiognomy enabled some limitations in the applicability of the biomass equations in landscapes that are composed of a mosaic of forest physiognomies to be overcome. This combination of methodologies can be adapted to other areas, according to the availability of basic information, such as data of forest biomass and a suitable GIS database. The procedures developed for mapping the ecosystem service of prevention of sedimentation are also likely to be of use in other areas, especially around water reservoirs, where integrated management of catchments is necessary. Prior to this study the most common criteria for determining priority areas for conservation were exclusively associated to biodiversity (Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica et al., 1997; Myers et al., 2000). Criteria based on the provision of ecosystem services for prioritizing conservation of Atlantic Forest is a novel approach although in India, some procedures were developed by Adinarayana et al. (1995) for partitioning the landscape into small hydrologic units with the purpose of prioritization of watersheds for conservation actions according to relative ratios of sediment yield. Such procedures were improved in the current study through applying a model that generated real 182 estimates of sediment yield rather than relative ratios. These estimates were used for further calculation of economic values as well as for prioritization of the catchments. Therefore, this study demonstrated the possibility of considering some innovative criteria for prioritizing the areas for the protection of forests, i.e. defining priority catchments for conservation. 7.4.4 Valuing ecosystem services The development of PES schemes in many countries is evolving from systems focused on single ecosystem services such as mitigation of climate change or water conservation to bundles of ecosystem services (Duraiappah, 2006; Lakany et al., 2007). These schemes may benefit from this thesis through the set of procedures developed for estimating the contribution of each ecosystem service to the total economic value. Furthermore, procedures for producing economic value maps were improved, enabling a spatial representation of the total economic value to be obtained, as well as the individual values of ecosystem services. Such spatial representation can be a way of supporting the development of bundle PES schemes through demonstrating where the values of ecosystem services reside. Another application of the techniques developed in this thesis in other studies is the demonstration of the monetary values of ecosystem services. Published studies found in the literature about valuation of ecosystem services, reveal a great variation in their estimated values (Torras, 2000; Pearce, 2001). This study contributes to improving the knowledge of these values through the application of some methods of valuation that take advantage from the information obtained in the physical assessments of ecosystem services. Carbon storage in forest biomass is one of these services. An extensive study done by Fankhauser (1995) suggested values for carbon according to estimates of global and regional damages associated with global warming. Those values have been used as a reference in many other studies. For instance, Adger et al. (2002) combined the economic value suggested by Fankauser (1995) with data on forest biomass obtained from the literature to calculate the value of tropical forests in Mexico. Despite its importance, Fankhauser’s (1997) study was developed more than a decade ago, before the rise of carbon markets. 183 This thesis has used more recent reference values of carbon, obtained both in recent studies on the impacts of global warming (Stern, 2007) and in the analyses of the current carbon markets (Capoor & Ambrosi, 2007). Furthermore, as described above, it has used more precise data on forest biomass, which was obtained in field surveys in the study area, rather than in a literature search. Valuing the prevention of sedimentation was also facilitated by the physical assessments of ecosystem services. The original purpose behind the development of methods for estimating movement of soil through erosion and sedimentation was to improve agriculture and land management (Bertoni & Lombardi-Neto, 1985). A number of studies have used estimates of soil erosion for valuing ecosystem services through calculations of the costs of nutrient loss associated with the soil eroded (Li at al., 2006; Guo et al., 2002; Pearce, 2001; Torras, 2000). This thesis suggested that such estimates may have further applicability in valuing ecosystem services, by calculating the impacts of sedimentation on the capacity of water storage in the reservoir. Estimates of nutrient loss, instead of being considered for valuing soil erosion as in previous studies, were used in this thesis for valuing the service of maintenance of soil fertility. Moreover, rather than using extrapolations of results obtained from running models of erosion like most studies do, the nutrient contents in the soil were determined through analysis in the laboratory using samples of soil that were collected in the study area, allowing more precise estimation of physical and therefore economic value. This new procedure for assessing the ecosystem service of maintenance of soil fertility can be applicable in several other areas. As discussed earlier, the values of most of the ecosystem services assessed in this research can be influenced by physical variables such as slope, soils, and land cover. The spatial heterogeneity in these variables is an important limitation to determining accurate values of these services. In order to overcome this limitation, the technique of spatial economic valuation, proposed by Eade & Moran (1996), was adopted. This technique consists of controlling environmental variables using tools such as geographic information systems for determining economic values of natural assets. Despite there being several ways of applying this technique, described in detail by Bateman et al. (2002), few examples of its use were found in the literature. One of these studies, developed by Troy & Wilson (2006) in three different locations in USA demonstrates that mapping ecosystem services can be feasible at various scales. A 184 similar study was developed by Li et al. (2006), using GIS for determining the total economic value of ecosystem services in the Qinba mountains in China. The authors of these studies emphasize in their discussions that the obtained products, i.e. the economic value maps, can assist decision making processes for favouring the provision of ecosystem services. The current thesis goes beyond these studies by exploring how such assistance to decision making processes can occur, i.e. how mechanisms such as PES schemes can benefit from the economic value maps of ecosystem services. 7.4.5 PES mechanisms The results obtained in the studies of policies and assessments of ecosystem services and their values, described in the previous sections, were used to develop a proposal of PES system which contains improvements in the current knowledge of PES. Previous experiences of PES such as the system in Costa Rica, do not consider the spatial variations in the availability of ecosystem services. By ignoring this variation, the payments are made on a per hectare basis and the values of payments per hectare do not vary. Therefore, some payments might be directed towards areas that are not necessarily of great importance for the provision of ecosystem services (Sanchez-Azofeifa et al., 2007; Pagiola, 2005; Rosa et al., 2004). This problem was overcome in this study through the use of economic value maps of ecosystem services, which indicate spatial variations in the provision of ecosystem services according to the influence of different environmental variables. Another important aspect in the proposed PES mechanism is the suggestion of guidelines for the development of procedures for the certification of ecosystem services. As discussed in Chapter 6, procedures for certification of some agricultural products and forest management are highly developed (Pinto & Prada, 2000). The guidelines suggested in this thesis are helpful in any future development of a system of certification of ecosystem services. Such systems can be useful not only in the PES in the Atibainha region, but also in PES initiatives in other regions. Furthermore, the development of procedures for certification might become an alternative to certify some projects for carbon sequestration that do not follow the official rules of the Clean Development Mechanism (IPCC, 2001). 185 Finally, the PES system proposed in this thesis could be helpful for potential buyers of ecosystem services enabling the identification of opportunities to finance conservation using a systematic and legitimate strategy. 186 7.5 Implications of findings In the previous sections it was demonstrated that there are several possibilities for using the findings of this thesis for developing further research. However, there are a number of implications of these findings beyond the development of future research. Five of the most important of these implications are described below. 7.5.1 Stakeholders awareness of failures in the observance of legislation During the development of this research, the map produced in chapter 3, which consists of a geographic interpretation of law enforcement, was presented to various stakeholders, including local authorities such as the public prosecutor, representatives from the water company, government agencies, and local residents, for disseminating the failures identified in the observance to the forest legislation. Subsequently, as a result of this activity a term was prepared by the prosecutor and signed by some of the authorities, stating their commitment in consulting the map when land use decisions have to be made, in order to prevent expansion of the problems of non observance of laws. 7.5.2 Costs of disrespecting the law The estimated value for the loss of ecosystem services derived from the non observance of forest laws, and the economic value maps of ecosystem services produced through this thesis will become available for authorities as a tool to determine how to establish compliance mechanisms for damage caused to the environment. For instance, this information can be used to determine appropriate values of fines to be paid by someone who causes deforestation. Thus, it is a contribution to the scientific information available to support proper decision making by authorities. 7.5.3 Preliminary projects relating to carbon storage The estimates of carbon stocks in forest biomass, described in chapter 4, have been used by IPÊ – Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas, a local non governmental organization, as a reference for determining how much carbon can be stored if native forests are restored in the region. The specific purpose is the development of projects for forest restoration with resources from companies that are interested in contributing to mitigate climate change. According to information obtained from IPÊ, the interest of these companies in the voluntary carbon market is likely to increase in the following decade. Therefore, it is 187 necessary to have information available about the capacity of forests to contribute to mitigate climate change for facilitating the decisions of these companies to finance projects for conservation and restoration. 7.5.4 Development of PES schemes Several limitations and opportunities for PES schemes have been revealed in this thesis. For instance, a considerable amount of money is expected to be raised from consumers of water due to the recent development of the water policy in Brazil. However, such policies depend on the development of guidelines for a proper use of these funds; i.e. to apply to initiatives that can really contribute to improving the provision of ecosystem services. Furthermore, some crucial scientific information about ecosystem services, land users, and their interests was obtained. These results are therefore expected to be used in policies, including the development of projects based on mechanisms of payments for ecosystem services. 188 7.6 References Amazonas, 2007. Lei Estadual 3135 de 04 de junho de 2007. Assembléia Legislativa, Manaus. Bateman I.J., Lovett A.A., Brainard J.S., 2002. Applied Environmental Economics: a GIS approach to cost-benefit analysis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Bateman I.J., Jones A.P., Lovett A.A., Lake I.R., Day B.H., 2002. Applying Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to Environmental and Resource Economics. Environmental and Resource Economics, 22:219-269. Brasil, 1965. Codigo Florestal Brasileiro: lei 4771 de 15 de setembro de 1965. Câmara dos Deputados, Brasília. Brasil, 1997. Lei 9433 de 08 de janeiro de 1997. Câmara dos Deputados, Brasília. Brasil, 2006. Lei da Mata Atlântica: lei Federal 11428 de 22 de dezembro de 2006. Câmara dos Deputados, Brasília. Brown S., 1997. Estimating Biomass and Biomass Change of Tropical Forests: a Primer. FAO Forestry Paper 134, Rome. Brown S., Lugo A.E., 1984. Biomass of Tropical Forests - A New Estimate Based on Forest Volumes. Science, 223:1290-1293. Capoor K., Ambrosi P., 2007. State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2007. The World Bank, Washington. Duraiappah A.K., 2006. Markets for Ecosystem Services: a potential tool for Multilateral Environmental Agreements. IISD, Winnipeg. Eade J.D.O., Moran D., 1996. Spatial Economic Valuation: Benefits Transfer using Geographical Information Systems. Journal of Environmental Management, 48:97-110. Fankhauser S., 1995. Valuing Climate Change: the economics of the greenhouse. Earthscan Publications Ltd, London. 189 Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica, INPE, ISA, 1998. Atlas da evolução dos remanescentes florestais e ecossistemas associados no domínio da Mata Atlântica no período 19901995. Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica, São Paulo. Holling C.S., Meffe G.K., 1996. Command-and-control and the Pathology of Natural Resource Management. Conservation Biology, 10(2): 328-337. IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: the scientific basis. Houghton J.T., Ding Y., Griggs D.J., Noguer M., Van der Linden P.J., Dai X., Askell K., Johnson C.A. (Ed.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Lakany H.E., Jenkins M., Richards M., 2007. Background paper on means of implementation: contribution by PROFOR to discussions at UNFF-7. PROFOR – Program on Forests, Washington. Li J., Ren Z.Y., Zhou Z.X., 2006. Ecosystem services and their values: a case study in the Qinba mountains of China. Ecological Research, 21:597-604. Mattos L., Faleiro A., Pereira C., 2001. Uma proposta alternativa para o desenvolvimento da produção familiar rural da Amazonia: o caso do Proambiente. IV Encontro Nacional da Sociedade Brasileira de Economia Ecológica (ECOECO), Belém. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2000. Ecosystems and Human Well being: A Framework for Assessment. Island Press, Washington. Myers N, Mittermeier R.A., Mittermeier C.G., Da Fonseca G.A.B., Kent J., 2000. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature, 403(6772):853-858. Pagiola S., 2004. Paying for Water Services in Central America: Learning from Costa Rica. In: Pagiola, S.; Bishop, J.; Landell-Mills, N. Selling Forest Environmentla Services: Market-based Mechanisms for Conservation and Development. Earthscan, London. Sanchez-Azofeifa G.A., Pfaff A., Robalino J.A., Boomhower J.P., 2007. Costa Rica's Payment for Environmental Services Program: Intention, Implementation, and Impact. Conservation Biology 21(5):1165-1173. 190 Santos R. F., 2004. Planejamento Ambiental: teoria e prática. Oficina de Textos, São Paulo. Stern N., 2007. The Economics of climate change: the Stern review. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Torras M., 2000. The total economic value of Amazonian deforestation 1978-1993. Ecological Economics, 33:283-297. Troy A., Wilson M.A., 2006. Mapping ecosystem services: Practical challenges and opportunities in linking GIS and value transfer. Ecological Economics, 60:435-449. 191 APPENDIX 2.1. Area of land uses and domains in the catchments around the Atibainha reservoir. Catchment 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 Total area 28.40 16.02 10.71 49.01 15.34 106.24 52.54 34.42 102.87 77.61 29.93 103.46 13.60 106.74 28.69 10.64 21.07 29.19 10.21 28.56 12.54 46.81 26.39 37.17 13.77 34.07 30.55 16.14 20.33 22.84 33.82 26.22 28.17 41.74 24.08 65.42 42.55 35.78 19.58 27.30 43.18 32.97 29.91 33.08 23.78 39.76 22.62 19.42 46.47 30.91 38.81 66.76 41.63 29.00 31.03 30.60 88.60 23.38 50.91 26.03 23.65 14.51 19.50 100.04 29.93 36.62 10.93 19.02 20.03 19.49 41.81 14.81 17.61 49.99 47.60 9.25 14.10 36.62 198.81 69.93 19.23 19.40 51.32 96.77 64.36 20.49 31.03 38.33 14.85 11.04 55.75 61.29 31.50 16.55 Native forest 7.57 0.14 3.83 19.05 11.53 50.49 16.43 17.46 31.10 49.81 18.72 34.70 12.46 38.77 17.94 3.74 11.33 3.34 0.00 11.25 7.04 27.10 11.94 8.21 9.84 21.91 18.92 3.17 19.09 8.49 12.28 10.55 13.66 35.26 22.27 36.95 22.83 13.14 12.21 22.85 2.94 6.72 21.02 14.74 7.53 22.64 10.99 10.22 22.35 12.70 22.94 28.59 21.78 8.72 12.07 24.08 72.09 16.16 19.60 0.54 7.89 10.80 4.27 59.41 21.08 7.98 1.47 5.79 7.37 0.00 41.68 0.00 2.29 16.86 15.91 8.35 1.83 20.77 53.09 32.69 6.09 9.67 31.74 30.34 51.79 20.44 31.03 38.28 10.49 4.30 14.27 13.20 24.97 10.76 Household 6.85 0.19 2.68 0.59 0.17 14.36 5.44 6.62 31.53 0.00 5.51 1.04 0.00 8.74 0.00 0.04 0.10 12.17 0.00 1.67 0.00 3.47 8.05 17.12 2.69 0.00 1.19 5.51 0.00 8.86 13.39 0.28 0.00 0.99 0.00 0.88 0.68 14.96 0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.41 2.70 2.65 0.00 11.30 0.00 2.13 26.08 5.32 11.26 4.14 0.00 1.26 3.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.55 12.49 0.00 4.54 0.00 0.00 0.87 1.21 0.00 0.63 0.00 1.14 15.57 0.00 0.00 8.67 19.31 24.97 0.00 0.00 2.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.07 1.39 2.65 20.52 0.00 2.07 Eucalyptus 1.15 0.13 0.00 0.00 2.23 22.45 1.66 2.25 16.58 1.91 2.54 21.00 0.00 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.82 0.01 3.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 6.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.14 1.01 1.49 1.51 0.00 7.03 12.01 0.00 0.00 7.32 1.58 0.00 0.00 6.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.08 0.00 4.97 0.00 0.00 10.75 0.00 8.51 3.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.34 3.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 9.46 1.12 0.00 0.00 Hotels Sabesp Pasture 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.65 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 2.67 0.00 0.00 3.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.54 0.00 7.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.47 1.85 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.29 0.00 2.78 4.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.63 0.00 0.00 7.15 0.00 24.60 16.00 5.84 11.47 7.90 14.40 41.17 0.32 9.01 37.47 12.35 0.13 13.39 2.33 21.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.65 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.80 0.19 6.15 0.01 21.52 5.49 20.54 0.00 8.86 47.31 22.70 0.69 1.03 26.37 0.00 2.31 3.02 32.88 0.00 0.00 10.16 19.40 0.00 12.78 26.40 14.91 0.00 8.61 0.00 13.81 30.56 5.34 35.88 0.00 22.57 12.01 0.00 0.00 28.04 19.45 10.90 0.00 13.61 0.00 13.41 0.00 11.94 0.00 0.00 9.21 0.00 12.52 0.00 39.63 19.18 9.54 22.88 3.84 44.44 0.00 0.09 0.00 11.60 7.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.43 15.29 4.24 13.07 0.54 11.28 27.95 6.09 21.53 19.59 6.25 41.68 0.98 55.69 6.91 6.57 9.62 25.29 10.18 15.64 3.95 8.16 6.74 16.35 3.19 11.94 10.43 6.41 0.59 3.86 12.44 3.02 13.78 5.52 0.12 21.11 18.28 15.18 2.35 3.17 23.54 12.76 7.07 2.44 0.26 11.72 8.14 8.47 10.80 11.33 13.77 27.09 15.01 14.69 10.91 4.61 5.31 3.29 16.81 16.12 9.84 1.53 2.01 4.64 6.65 15.11 0.00 0.00 8.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.42 6.35 0.00 5.50 0.71 102.99 5.19 3.68 0.10 4.34 8.41 2.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 23.80 23.23 0.00 1.49 Catchment 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 TOTAL Total area 40.34 10.43 33.55 27.57 11.44 25.26 36.20 63.80 63.51 38.47 48.87 86.02 31.73 11.61 65.39 49.66 71.66 13.04 15.04 92.04 42.99 52.55 10.72 46.57 42.03 40.52 10.62 13.17 57.17 25.50 12.99 16.39 21.10 174.37 24.91 14.56 29.59 29.14 41.39 144.92 19.86 80.84 32.92 19.99 18.10 18.20 39.22 33.06 20.13 30.17 11.31 23.16 98.16 62.43 27.34 39.69 42.94 12.57 46.66 14.94 26.86 59.45 33.49 25.30 53.37 52.25 57.04 25.61 32.62 36.90 22.34 10.08 10.66 30.50 57.23 53.65 42.32 77.55 127.62 60.50 57.89 10.67 140.98 183.44 42.31 29.46 25.30 90.95 21.41 11.92 33.94 28.39 75.62 57.21 7638.86 Native forest 5.77 6.90 21.30 16.48 9.41 2.51 6.84 48.03 28.95 34.64 47.98 14.64 7.49 6.70 55.62 2.95 10.21 12.82 4.39 56.15 37.48 48.29 10.55 36.35 23.10 1.90 8.26 12.59 25.91 23.59 2.97 14.36 13.42 86.48 6.91 5.92 14.63 17.82 41.31 48.85 19.70 31.49 2.20 17.33 3.19 5.61 26.02 26.37 12.69 6.79 0.18 21.90 48.63 11.01 8.60 31.13 2.88 11.08 39.21 12.05 7.26 47.04 23.61 9.52 50.83 51.08 28.66 1.35 6.84 26.72 22.34 9.47 3.90 3.66 33.21 43.44 34.82 50.24 35.51 7.73 12.58 4.65 53.64 57.78 28.52 16.96 10.62 20.79 4.40 11.73 5.74 25.91 53.85 40.84 3736.48 Household 0.74 4.13 0.00 0.00 1.72 15.06 3.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.18 0.69 5.24 11.27 6.52 0.37 0.50 0.00 9.36 0.00 0.54 0.00 11.14 6.56 1.34 1.11 0.00 13.19 0.00 0.00 2.30 6.07 31.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.25 0.00 14.41 0.00 2.96 0.00 7.73 0.07 6.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.00 6.01 22.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.19 1.57 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.47 1.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.81 0.00 1.88 0.98 0.53 0.00 2.85 2.54 0.00 0.01 4.25 0.00 0.00 0.74 0.00 1.03 0.00 653.72 Eucalyptus 5.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.27 2.48 1.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.78 10.74 0.00 0.00 6.22 0.00 0.00 0.64 0.00 5.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.52 6.45 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.04 0.00 5.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.51 3.48 0.13 0.90 6.45 0.00 3.13 6.55 12.76 2.98 0.00 23.02 0.00 0.00 3.70 24.55 7.27 6.68 36.70 0.22 6.99 0.00 3.25 0.10 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.02 7.09 3.03 5.14 0.02 0.00 0.47 0.90 3.33 0.29 0.52 0.67 8.78 3.23 22.55 40.01 6.10 77.92 41.19 3.75 0.57 8.60 52.77 0.00 0.00 22.25 0.07 0.59 0.00 745.38 Hotels Sabesp Pasture 0.00 0.00 10.97 0.00 0.00 6.05 1.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.62 0.00 4.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 120.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.81 0.00 0.00 4.56 37.19 5.85 28.94 0.00 21.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.39 0.00 51.32 0.08 34.71 6.88 0.00 16.92 0.00 6.58 0.00 0.00 8.10 12.82 0.00 0.00 6.38 24.87 6.85 0.00 4.37 0.00 0.00 18.97 0.00 9.06 0.00 18.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 13.09 0.00 0.00 11.39 39.61 39.50 0.17 0.00 14.93 0.00 0.00 33.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.30 0.00 0.00 3.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.50 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1512.51 26.07 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 2.62 14.60 7.83 34.43 0.00 0.01 16.31 8.61 1.27 0.00 40.48 63.70 0.00 8.41 16.75 2.50 0.62 0.00 0.49 12.07 32.17 1.64 0.00 18.73 0.87 5.42 1.83 7.06 71.95 13.00 7.91 14.66 7.46 0.07 74.34 0.00 31.81 24.14 1.51 11.65 0.00 0.00 0.51 7.21 0.00 11.12 1.23 17.87 26.44 7.34 0.73 3.13 0.99 0.15 2.86 12.75 4.22 9.30 15.78 2.34 0.23 15.79 20.22 5.23 9.60 0.00 0.00 0.01 18.56 0.00 9.48 4.47 8.57 91.60 25.23 4.29 0.01 10.08 76.56 4.91 6.52 11.86 6.40 16.74 0.18 4.77 0.72 18.13 15.16 2041.38 192 APPENDIX 4.1 Estimated sediment delivery (tons of sediment) in each catchment to each land use scenario. “SPast” = pasture; “SFor” = native forest; “SEuc” = eucalyptus; “SUrb” = Urban area/exposed soil. Catch 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 Spas 1.186 0.319 0.414 3.599 0.679 5.131 2.786 1.073 8.688 6.106 4.375 7.193 1.696 3.923 3.468 0.149 1.275 0.787 0.609 1.084 0.794 12.553 1.682 2.427 3.349 13.317 2.253 0.921 4.221 3.710 1.645 6.493 1.160 7.895 1.482 13.911 2.435 3.071 3.342 23.434 3.501 9.591 2.100 8.263 2.237 11.598 7.356 SFor 0.008 0.002 0.003 0.023 0.004 0.033 0.018 0.007 0.056 0.039 0.028 0.046 0.011 0.025 0.022 0.001 0.008 0.005 0.004 0.007 0.005 0.080 0.011 0.016 0.021 0.085 0.014 0.006 0.027 0.024 0.011 0.042 0.007 0.051 0.009 0.089 0.016 0.020 0.021 0.150 0.022 0.061 0.013 0.053 0.014 0.074 0.047 SEuc 0.049 0.013 0.017 0.148 0.028 0.211 0.115 0.044 0.358 0.251 0.180 0.296 0.070 0.161 0.143 0.006 0.052 0.032 0.025 0.045 0.033 0.517 0.069 0.100 0.138 0.548 0.093 0.038 0.174 0.153 0.068 0.267 0.048 0.325 0.061 0.572 0.100 0.126 0.138 0.964 0.144 0.395 0.086 0.340 0.092 0.477 0.303 SUrb 248.965 66.975 86.870 755.256 142.456 1076.860 584.729 225.102 1823.320 1281.490 918.183 1509.590 355.878 823.290 727.741 31.273 267.524 165.139 127.827 227.591 166.650 2634.380 353.003 509.344 702.844 2794.540 472.826 193.285 885.702 778.577 345.311 1362.560 243.410 1656.770 310.958 2919.390 511.057 644.391 701.250 4917.430 734.730 2012.690 440.738 1734.060 469.474 2433.780 1543.580 Area 28.40 16.02 10.71 49.01 15.34 106.24 52.54 34.42 102.87 77.61 29.93 103.46 13.60 106.74 28.69 10.64 21.07 29.19 10.21 28.56 12.54 46.81 26.39 37.17 13.77 34.07 30.55 16.14 20.33 22.84 33.82 26.22 28.17 41.74 24.08 65.42 42.55 35.78 19.58 27.30 43.18 32.97 29.91 33.08 23.78 39.76 22.62 Catch 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 SPas 2.713 2.593 11.823 2.165 6.866 1.891 1.467 5.129 3.162 11.895 3.738 5.894 3.757 1.967 2.934 1.298 2.705 3.493 3.326 0.774 0.280 2.999 1.852 59.436 0.375 0.518 1.735 3.248 7.968 0.189 34.010 5.519 15.126 3.733 1.237 14.723 2.571 11.892 7.430 31.434 7.207 4.477 1.585 1.930 3.737 10.408 0.522 SFor 0.017 0.017 0.076 0.014 0.044 0.012 0.009 0.033 0.020 0.076 0.024 0.038 0.024 0.013 0.019 0.008 0.018 0.022 0.021 0.004 0.002 0.019 0.012 0.328 0.002 0.003 0.012 0.021 0.044 0.001 0.188 0.037 0.084 0.024 0.008 0.081 0.017 0.076 0.043 0.174 0.048 0.025 0.010 0.013 0.022 0.060 0.004 SEuc 0.112 0.107 0.487 0.089 0.283 0.078 0.060 0.211 0.130 0.489 0.154 0.243 0.155 0.081 0.121 0.053 0.105 0.144 0.137 0.040 0.011 0.123 0.076 3.050 0.018 0.021 0.068 0.134 0.409 0.007 1.745 0.215 0.776 0.154 0.051 0.755 0.100 0.489 0.361 1.613 0.280 0.230 0.065 0.075 0.181 0.505 0.020 SUrb 569.238 544.250 2480.930 454.421 1440.850 396.888 307.841 1076.350 663.650 2496.280 784.346 1236.910 788.379 412.761 615.767 272.384 631.269 732.927 698.006 77.508 65.242 629.334 388.620 5949.140 41.708 108.759 405.017 681.683 797.596 44.049 3404.290 1288.130 1514.110 783.343 259.669 1473.830 600.155 2495.600 827.168 3146.430 1682.110 448.097 332.551 450.542 416.016 1158.740 121.922 Area 19.42 46.47 30.91 38.81 66.76 41.63 29.00 31.03 30.60 88.60 23.38 50.91 26.03 23.65 14.51 19.50 100.04 29.93 36.62 10.93 19.02 20.03 19.49 41.81 14.81 17.61 49.99 47.60 9.25 14.10 36.62 198.81 69.93 19.23 19.40 51.32 96.77 64.36 20.49 31.03 38.33 14.85 11.04 55.75 61.29 31.50 16.55 Catch 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 SPas 2.807 3.602 4.913 3.429 5.891 9.354 4.195 17.926 14.090 2.279 4.916 3.472 2.102 3.432 7.824 11.117 19.221 1.910 1.058 39.456 9.563 3.493 0.522 5.341 31.622 3.585 3.562 5.972 4.215 1.233 0.363 6.572 3.280 13.830 0.636 0.671 1.513 2.375 14.178 10.859 2.003 6.640 1.620 5.287 0.838 2.910 11.171 SFor 0.016 0.021 0.033 0.019 0.034 0.052 0.024 0.115 0.078 0.015 0.033 0.020 0.014 0.020 0.053 0.061 0.106 0.012 0.007 0.218 0.061 0.022 0.003 0.036 0.175 0.023 0.020 0.038 0.028 0.008 0.002 0.042 0.021 0.088 0.004 0.004 0.010 0.015 0.091 0.069 0.013 0.042 0.010 0.034 0.005 0.019 0.071 SEuc 0.136 0.175 0.191 0.176 0.286 0.480 0.204 0.738 0.723 0.094 0.191 0.168 0.082 0.167 0.305 0.570 0.986 0.079 0.041 2.025 0.394 0.144 0.021 0.208 1.623 0.148 0.183 0.246 0.164 0.051 0.015 0.270 0.135 0.569 0.026 0.028 0.062 0.098 0.583 0.447 0.082 0.273 0.067 0.218 0.034 0.120 0.460 SUrb 312.536 401.063 1146.660 343.257 655.826 936.306 467.043 3761.700 1410.390 478.201 1147.380 386.578 490.675 382.075 1826.190 1112.780 1924.010 400.833 246.852 3949.450 2006.750 732.991 109.523 1246.560 3165.300 752.312 356.602 1253.090 983.844 258.796 76.200 1379.170 688.238 2902.450 133.491 140.779 317.435 498.405 2975.320 2278.960 420.407 1393.520 339.933 1109.540 175.846 610.725 2344.210 Area 40.34 10.43 33.55 27.57 11.44 25.26 36.20 63.80 63.51 38.47 48.87 86.02 31.73 11.61 65.39 49.66 71.66 13.04 15.04 92.04 42.99 52.55 10.72 46.57 42.03 40.52 10.62 13.17 57.17 25.50 12.99 16.39 21.10 174.37 24.91 14.56 29.59 29.14 41.39 144.92 19.86 80.84 32.92 19.99 18.10 18.20 39.22 Catch 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 SPas 5.027 6.627 6.993 2.977 12.429 7.781 5.975 5.502 39.134 4.309 1.150 15.995 1.846 5.338 11.609 4.810 8.615 9.082 13.836 19.098 2.023 0.837 7.909 8.292 3.472 0.149 1.151 45.571 26.529 37.213 16.827 28.878 4.225 1.438 0.833 109.546 42.321 1.535 44.187 3.785 3.471 7.806 4.499 1.072 23.166 21.791 4.832 SFor 0.032 0.042 0.045 0.019 0.080 0.050 0.038 0.035 0.250 0.028 0.007 0.102 0.012 0.029 0.074 0.031 0.055 0.058 0.089 0.122 0.013 0.006 0.051 0.046 0.022 0.001 0.008 0.252 0.170 0.206 0.108 0.185 0.024 0.010 0.005 0.605 0.271 0.010 0.244 0.022 0.023 0.050 0.029 0.007 0.128 0.139 0.031 SEuc 0.207 0.273 0.288 0.123 0.511 0.320 0.246 0.226 1.610 0.177 0.047 0.658 0.076 0.274 0.478 0.198 0.355 0.374 0.569 0.786 0.083 0.033 0.325 0.425 0.143 0.006 0.045 2.338 1.092 1.909 0.692 1.188 0.205 0.056 0.040 5.621 1.742 0.060 2.267 0.184 0.135 0.321 0.185 0.042 1.189 0.897 0.199 SUrb 1054.890 1390.790 1467.450 624.719 2608.120 1632.860 1253.970 1154.670 8212.130 904.239 241.364 3356.610 387.456 534.348 2436.120 1009.320 1807.900 1905.960 2903.510 4007.740 424.505 195.392 1659.760 830.033 728.547 34.811 268.597 4561.570 5566.880 3724.930 3531.230 6060.210 470.371 335.736 92.731 10965.300 8881.250 358.223 4422.810 421.336 810.268 1638.150 943.970 250.291 2318.880 4572.820 1014.150 Area 33.06 20.13 30.17 11.31 23.16 98.16 62.43 27.34 39.69 42.94 12.57 46.66 14.94 26.86 59.45 33.49 25.30 53.37 52.25 57.04 25.61 32.62 36.90 22.34 10.08 10.66 30.50 57.23 53.65 42.32 77.55 127.62 60.50 57.89 10.67 140.98 183.44 42.31 29.46 25.30 90.95 21.41 11.92 33.94 28.39 75.62 57.21 193 APPENDIX 4.2 Sediment delivery rates (Kg/ha/year) for the different catchments with forests (PSDf), eucalyptys (PSDe), pastures (PSDp), and current land uses (CurS). Catch 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 PSDf (Kg/ha) 8767 4179 8108 15408 9288 10136 11129 6539 17724 16511 30674 14591 26167 7713 25366 2938 12696 5658 12523 7968 13290 56276 13377 13702 51029 82030 15474 11973 43556 34090 10210 51959 8641 39695 12913 44621 12011 18009 35810 180123 17015 61050 14737 52419 19740 61209 68228 PSDe (Kg/ha) 8766 4179 8106 15406 9286 10134 11128 6538 17721 16508 30669 14589 26162 7712 25362 2937 12693 5657 12521 7967 13288 56267 13374 13700 51020 82016 15472 11971 43548 34084 10208 51951 8639 39688 12910 44614 12009 18006 35804 180094 17012 61040 14734 52410 19736 61199 68216 PSDp (Kg/ha) 8726 4160 8069 15335 9244 10088 11077 6508 17640 16433 30529 14522 26043 7676 25246 2924 12635 5631 12464 7931 13227 56009 13313 13638 50787 81641 15401 11916 43349 33929 10162 51713 8600 39507 12851 44410 11954 17924 35640 179271 16934 60761 14667 52170 19646 60919 67905 CurS (Kg) 208273 66275 73149 566883 130989 906763 511937 174994 1226452 1250526 874372 1435228 351151 748838 725841 28867 265716 150488 126860 211468 161221 2404464 272507 358287 529658 2763272 453028 106161 856956 420942 289643 1126040 236979 1633637 288077 2834828 489100 567749 623122 4882046 731331 1889538 414932 1701623 465165 2220190 1258485 Catch 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 PSDf PSDe PSDp CurS 29305 11713 80270 11709 21582 9534 10614 34689 21687 28175 33544 24297 30287 17453 42431 13971 6310 24488 19059 7090 3431 31425 19934 142267 2817 6176 8101 14321 86198 3124 92964 6479 21652 40739 13385 28720 6202 38773 40360 101382 43889 30165 30132 8081 6787 36789 7369 29300 11711 80256 11707 21578 9532 10613 34683 21684 28170 33539 24293 30282 17450 42424 13968 6309 24484 19055 7087 3430 31420 19931 142202 2816 6175 8100 14319 86158 3124 92922 6478 21642 40732 13383 28706 6201 38766 40344 101335 43883 30151 30127 8080 6784 36775 7368 29167 11657 79890 11654 21480 9489 10564 34525 21585 28042 33385 24182 30144 17371 42230 13904 6283 24372 18968 7019 3416 31276 19840 140854 2792 6147 8067 14253 85341 3111 92040 6452 21436 40546 13322 28434 6175 38589 39999 100374 43703 29866 29989 8047 6726 36460 7337 559029 440227 2291335 428467 1275486 350050 244935 959430 645688 2311306 617680 1071996 702854 393851 516396 140445 556565 706568 437442 73617 59282 519240 348993 5934699 34246 74152 371571 443832 720086 36209 2443153 1206392 992099 729801 216844 1210361 572231 2198742 825071 3143296 1677835 316488 156195 415613 344182 1126450 90237 Catch PSDf PSDe PSDp CurS 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 7748 38446 34181 12449 57319 37068 12900 58955 22205 12431 23477 4494 15464 32897 27928 22408 26847 30741 16409 42909 46678 13947 10214 26765 75301 18564 33568 95109 17210 10149 5864 84128 32624 16645 5359 9670 10726 17105 71891 15725 21169 17238 10326 55506 9713 33548 59762 7745 38431 34176 12443 57297 37051 12895 58945 22195 12429 23473 4492 15462 32884 27924 22398 26835 30736 16406 42890 46671 13945 10212 26761 75267 18561 33553 95093 17207 10147 5863 84114 32618 16642 5358 9668 10725 17102 71879 15723 21165 17235 10324 55497 9711 33542 59752 7678 38102 34036 12325 56808 36700 12785 58676 21984 12372 23377 4454 15399 32603 27809 22185 26580 30596 16339 42483 46457 13881 10165 26651 74553 18476 33235 94659 17136 10101 5836 83730 32469 16566 5334 9624 10676 17024 71551 15651 21068 17156 10277 55243 9667 33389 59479 303762 343058 1098947 327279 599255 193711 304055 3631641 1386224 459994 1135714 163642 476532 358231 1664511 1039644 1859585 391961 245345 3254406 1914297 701557 107928 1187050 2707464 656636 336067 1224448 878527 255456 70461 1359012 611952 2778871 125200 118725 313453 481798 2965029 2171329 419725 1280388 314141 1008430 173986 439095 2314909 Catch 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 PSDf PSDe PSDp CurS 31904 69100 48639 55247 112605 16634 20086 42236 206896 21058 19196 71941 25936 19896 40977 30137 71449 35711 55571 70262 16578 5989 44978 37155 72295 3266 8806 79695 103755 88006 45535 47483 7775 5800 8693 77774 48414 8466 150110 16656 8909 76529 79180 7375 81675 60471 17727 31898 69089 48631 55238 112587 16631 20082 42229 206862 21055 19193 71929 25931 19887 40970 30132 71437 35705 55561 70251 16575 5988 44970 37138 72283 3266 8804 79658 103738 87966 45527 47476 7772 5799 8690 77739 48406 8465 150041 16650 8908 76516 79167 7374 81637 60461 17724 31753 68773 48409 54985 112072 16555 19991 42036 205916 20958 19105 71600 25813 19698 40783 29994 71111 35542 55307 69930 16500 5964 44765 36785 71953 3252 8768 78903 103263 87131 45319 47259 7705 5775 8616 77002 48185 8430 148618 16507 8871 76167 78805 7343 80863 60185 17643 916965 1373191 1460584 621752 2394168 1460263 1232652 1085510 8117177 899029 235842 3269256 386235 463017 2071359 1008275 1801008 1898561 2882588 3681968 409678 179416 1630524 829987 728042 19793 251879 4501292 5474280 3639468 3339423 6035209 450861 320940 88877 10648759 8623722 321482 4395161 395597 786555 1419475 941708 235165 2024527 4112507 913888 194 APPENDIX 5.1 Economic values of prevention of sediment delivery in the reservoir due to current land uses in each catchment. Catchment 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 Prevention of sedimentation (U$/year) 162.45 51.69 57.06 442.17 102.17 707.27 399.31 136.50 956.63 975.41 682.01 1119.48 273.90 584.09 566.16 22.52 207.26 117.38 98.95 164.94 125.75 1875.48 212.56 279.46 413.13 2155.35 353.36 82.81 668.43 328.34 225.92 878.31 184.84 1274.24 224.70 2211.17 381.50 442.84 486.04 3808.00 570.44 1473.84 323.65 1327.27 362.83 1731.75 981.62 436.04 343.38 1787.24 334.20 994.88 273.04 191.05 748.36 503.64 1802.82 481.79 836.16 548.23 307.20 402.79 109.55 Catchment 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 Prevention of sedimentation (U$/year) 434.12 551.12 341.20 57.42 46.24 405.01 272.21 4629.07 26.71 57.84 289.83 346.19 561.67 28.24 1905.66 940.99 773.84 569.25 169.14 944.08 446.34 1715.02 643.56 2451.77 1308.71 246.86 121.83 324.18 268.46 878.63 70.38 236.93 267.59 857.18 255.28 467.42 151.09 237.16 2832.68 1081.25 358.80 885.86 127.64 371.69 279.42 1298.32 810.92 1450.48 305.73 191.37 2538.44 1493.15 547.21 84.18 925.90 2111.82 512.18 262.13 955.07 685.25 199.26 54.96 1060.03 Catchment 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 Prevention of sedimentation (U$/year) 477.32 2167.52 97.66 92.61 244.49 375.80 2312.72 1693.64 327.39 998.70 245.03 786.58 135.71 342.49 1805.63 715.23 1071.09 1139.26 484.97 1867.45 1139.00 961.47 846.70 6331.40 701.24 183.96 2550.02 301.26 361.15 1615.66 786.45 1404.79 1480.88 2248.42 2871.94 319.55 139.94 1271.81 647.39 567.87 15.44 196.47 3511.01 4269.94 2838.78 2604.75 4707.46 351.67 250.33 69.32 8306.03 6726.50 250.76 3428.23 308.57 613.51 1107.19 734.53 183.43 1579.13 3207.76 712.83 195 APPENDIX 5.2 Economic values of prevention of sediment delivery in the reservoir in hypothetical homogeneous scenarios of pasture, eucalyptus and native forest. Catchment U$ 100%Pas U$ 100%Euc U$ 100For Catchment U$ 100%Pas U$ 100%Euc U$ 100For Catchment U$ 100%Pas U$ 100%Euc U$ 100For 0 162 163 163 63 433 434 435 126 476 478 478 1 52 52 52 64 549 552 552 127 2,161 2,171 2,171 2 57 57 57 65 340 342 342 128 97 98 98 3 441 443 443 66 57 58 58 129 92 93 93 4 102 102 102 67 46 46 46 130 244 245 245 5 705 708 708 68 404 406 406 131 375 376 376 6 399 400 400 69 272 273 274 132 2,302 2,312 2,313 7 136 137 137 70 4,583 4,627 4,629 133 1,690 1,698 1,698 8 953 958 958 71 27 27 27 134 326 327 327 9 972 977 977 72 58 58 58 135 996 1,001 1,001 10 679 683 683 73 289 290 290 136 245 246 246 11 1,116 1,121 1,122 74 345 347 347 137 783 787 787 12 273 274 274 75 556 561 562 138 135 136 136 13 583 586 586 76 28 28 28 139 341 342 343 1,806 14 564 567 567 77 1,890 1,908 1,909 140 1,797 1,805 15 22 23 23 78 939 943 943 141 712 715 715 16 207 208 208 79 768 776 776 142 1,067 1,072 1,073 1,139 17 117 118 118 80 568 571 571 143 1,134 1,139 18 99 99 99 81 169 169 169 144 485 487 487 19 165 165 165 82 937 946 946 145 1,859 1,868 1,868 1,141 20 125 126 126 83 445 447 447 146 1,135 1,141 21 1,867 1,875 1,876 84 1,707 1,715 1,715 147 959 963 963 22 212 213 213 85 638 643 644 148 844 848 848 6,332 23 279 280 280 86 2,427 2,451 2,452 149 6,302 6,331 24 411 413 413 87 1,303 1,309 1,309 150 698 701 702 25 2,149 2,159 2,159 88 244 247 247 151 183 184 184 2,550 26 352 354 354 89 121 122 122 152 2,538 2,550 27 83 83 83 90 324 325 325 153 300 301 302 28 665 668 669 91 268 270 270 154 359 363 363 1,616 29 327 329 329 92 872 879 880 155 1,609 1,616 30 225 226 227 93 70 70 70 156 784 787 787 31 875 879 879 94 236 238 238 157 1,403 1,409 1,409 32 184 185 185 95 266 268 268 158 1,474 1,481 1,481 33 1,269 1,275 1,275 96 855 858 858 159 2,238 2,248 2,248 2,876 34 224 225 225 97 253 256 256 160 2,862 2,875 35 2,204 2,214 2,215 98 464 468 468 161 319 321 321 36 380 382 382 99 150 151 151 162 139 140 140 1,273 37 442 444 444 100 236 238 238 163 1,267 1,273 38 484 486 486 101 2,822 2,835 2,835 164 641 647 647 39 3,793 3,810 3,811 102 1,076 1,087 1,087 165 565 568 568 40 570 572 572 103 357 359 359 166 15 15 15 41 1,470 1,476 1,477 104 882 886 886 167 196 197 197 42 323 324 324 105 127 128 128 168 3,476 3,509 3,511 43 1,324 1,330 1,330 106 371 372 372 169 4,253 4,273 4,273 44 362 363 363 107 278 280 280 170 2,815 2,842 2,843 45 1,726 1734 1,734 108 1,293 1,299 1,299 171 2,594 2,606 2,607 4,722 46 979 983 983 109 809 817 817 172 4,700 4,722 47 435 437 437 110 1,448 1,462 1,463 173 350 353 353 48 342 344 344 111 304 306 306 174 249 251 251 49 1,783 1,792 1,792 112 191 192 192 175 69 69 69 50 333 335 335 113 2,520 2,544 2,545 176 8,239 8,318 8,322 6,741 51 992 997 997 114 1,487 1,493 1,494 177 6,709 6,740 52 272 274 274 115 545 547 547 178 250 251 251 53 191 192 192 116 84 84 84 179 3,403 3,435 3,437 54 746 750 750 117 923 926 926 180 307 310 310 55 502 504 504 118 2,097 2,117 2,118 181 611 614 614 1,111 56 1,795 1,804 1,804 119 512 514 514 182 1,106 1,111 57 480 482 482 120 260 262 263 183 731 734 735 58 834 838 838 121 951 955 955 184 183 184 184 59 548 551 551 122 684 687 687 185 1,563 1,578 1,579 60 306 308 308 123 198 199 199 186 3,195 3,210 3,211 61 401 403 403 124 55 55 55 187 710 713 714 62 109 110 110 125 1,056 1,060 1,061 TOTAL 176,310 177,334 177,376 196