Gulbenkian Think Tank on
Water and the Future of Mankind
Water and Food Security for 9 billion in 2050
- Doubling production or 100% access?
December 6, 2010
Jan Lundqvist
Senior scientific advisor
Issues & messages
• Food security not about production
• No such thing as an average climate
• Purchasing power >> demography
Changes in Food Supply, 1961 – 2005
Between 2007 – 2008, world food supply increased by 5% (a new record)
Parallel with this, the number of undernourished increased by 150 million
Mr Henry Kissinger at
First World Food Summit, 1974:
(then Secretary of State, USA)
”No child will go to bed
hungry within
ten years”
Dramatic Jump in Undernourishment while Supply increased
Undernourishment & overeating
1,000 million undernourished
- numbers increasing?
1,400 million overweight,
400 million obese
– numbers increasing
(Source: Economist, Dec. 13, 2003; S. Brichieri-Colombi, WWW 2006)
World Population
Water Withdrawals
Population:
Withdrawals:
1900: 1.65 billion
2000: 6
billion
1900: 700 km3
2000: 3.500 km3
Increase in GDP/purchasing power – fine!
Source: Lundqvist et al. 2007
• Shift to water intensive diets with GDP growth
• Intensified resource pressure and environmental risks
• Many food items susceptical to degradation/waste
Socio-economic trends;
Food supply, water & environmental cost
Food supply in China,
1961 - 2005
Water footprint
Source: Junguo Liu & Hub Savenije
World Food Summit (2009): increase food production by 70% by 2050
Intensified resource use; nutrients, chemicals, energy, etc.
Water bubbles are the real thing:
“…we
have enjoyed a series of water „bubbles‟
to support economic growth over the past 50
years or so….. We are now on the verge of
water bankruptcy in many places with no way
of paying the debt back”.
World Economic Forum, January 2009
What about
demography
&
GDP?
Demographic and GDP Trends
Population
(billion)
1800: (T. R. Malthus)
Urban
(billion)
<1
1900:
1.65
1950: just after WW2
2.5
2000:
6
2050:
GDP
($ billion; 2005 ppp)
913
(1820)
7,006
3
56,593
~9
~ 6.5
193,318*)
50%
125%
400%
(2005)
*) trend projection
Increase:
(2000 -2050)
Source: GDP trend projection: Hillebrand, E., 2009.
Another 2+ billion in a generation
- with dreams
- want/demand/right to sense development
Population below & above poverty line, 2005
Source: Shah, 2010
What about
water?
Additional storage
peaked in the 70s
Reservoirs (number per year)
80
70
60
50
40
30
Other regions
Asia
Europe
North America
20
10
0
Up to 1900 1901-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-1998
Source: Mats Lannerstad
Rainfall: Significant Uncertainty and Risk
Variability of rainfall – Beira, 1908 to 2009
400
BEIRA: monthly rainfall 1908 to 2009
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan
Feb
1908
1919
1930
1941
1952
1963
1974
1985
1996
Mar
1909
1920
1931
1942
1953
1964
1975
1986
1997
Apr
1910
1921
1932
1943
1954
1965
1976
1987
1998
May
1911
1922
1933
1944
1955
1966
1977
1988
1999
Jun
1912
1923
1934
1945
1956
1967
1978
1989
2000
Jul
1913
1924
1935
1946
1957
1968
1979
1990
2001
Aug
1914
1925
1936
1947
1958
1969
1980
1991
2002
Sep
1915
1926
1937
1948
1959
1970
1981
1992
2003
Oct
1916
1927
1938
1949
1960
1971
1982
1993
2004
Nov
1917
1928
1939
1950
1961
1972
1983
1994
2005
Dec
1918
1929
1940
1951
1962
1973
1984
1995
2006
Source: JeanMarc Faures, FAO
The seven lean and the seven fat years
(Zimbabwe, 1910 – 2000)
Possibilities for
high yield
High risk;
low yield
For the Farmer and Dam/Reservoir Operator
’There is no Such Thing as an Average’
Bhavani Basin & Dam
”Dams as Modern Temples of India”
Source: Mats Lannerstad, Linköping University
Rainfed Agriculture;
Soil moisture/green water: size & management
Unpredictable &
variable precipitation
+ Global warming;
Rapid return flow
Options for Food &
Livelihood Security
Land use that
permits infiltration
of rainwater;
soil moisture =
green water
resource
• Storing water
• Storing food
• Market access
Soil moisture
enough to overcome effects of
dry spells?
Perspectives on
the future
Plan A:
Food production to increase by 70% by
2050 World Food Summit, Rome, November 2009.
Plan B:
Post-harvest logistics; food/agr. produce;
Similar: World Bank (2008), N. Borlaug (2002), etc.
- storage, transport & market access
Climate change may reduce potential
yields in SSA and SA by 30% by 2030
(Lobell et al. 2008 in Science)
Attention to use & food intake;
- Check definition on food security
Temperature increase may reduce yields
of corn, soya beans and cotton by
30 – 46% in the US in a century
(Schlenker & Roberts, PNAS, 2009)
”112 pounds
of food
wastage
per month
for a family
of four”
(NYT, May 18,
2008)
Food Security …
” …exists when all people, at all times, have physical and
economic access to sufficient , safe and nutritious
food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences
for an active and healthy life” Rome Declaration (FAO, 1996)
- How much is ”sufficient”?
2,000 – 2,200 kcal/person, day on average
- What to do when preferences deviate from ”sufficient”?
Food supply & food intake requirement
Average intake requirement: 1,800 – 2,200 kcal/p, d
CONCLUSIONS
• Poverty major constraint to water & food access
• Affluence associated with high water pressure
• Beware of statistical averages
• Attention to food chain efficiency
Where is
the road ahead?