Gaidar Institute
for Economic
Policy
26-27 June 2012, Moscow, Russia
CHAMBER OF FOREIGN TRADE (CAMEX)
Presidency of the Republic of Brazil
Session 4
“Managing Foreign Trade in a
Globalized World (1)”
André Luís Ribeiro Barbosa
Technical Assistant / Foreign Trade Analyst
Brazil – Russia Dialogue: Economic Policy Challenges
27 June 2012
2
Presentation outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
Introduction: Living in a Changing World
Brazilian Trade Policy: the role of CAMEX
An Overview of Brazilian Foreign Trade
Bilateral Trade:
– Brazil X Russia
– Brazil X BRICS
5. Foreign Trade in a Globalized World:
Final Considerations
1. Introduction: Living in a
Changing World
The World has changed….
…and is changing
 The world is not only living a financial crisis, it is going
through a massive change: a new reality is on the way,
and very fast
 No right answers, no ready answers, but new questions
 Emerging countries taking the lead (economic growth,
population
growth,
savings
and
investments,
consumption, access to technological progress…)
 Developed countries stagnated
The World is changing…
… and will continue to change
 (2005) only two Developing Countries among the ten
largest economies: China 5th and Brazil 10th
(2010) China 2nd , Brazil 7th, India joins the group 9th
(2011) China 2nd, Brazil 6th, Russia replaces India 9th
 Juggernaut: How Emerging Markets Are Reshaping
Globalization (Uri Dadush and William Shaw)
 (2050) Six out of the seven largest economies will be Developing Countries
 3.3 billion people will reach middle or upper class (2 X current situation)
 Most of those will be in Developing Countries
 70% of global trade will be have Developing Countries instead of today’s 1/3
2. Brazilian Trade Policy:
The Role of CAMEX
CAMEX
(Presidential Decree nº 4.732/2003)




Formulation, coordination and implementation of
policies and activities related to foreign trade
Definition of major orientations regarding foreign trade
Final decision on the adoption of trade defense
measures
Coordination of agencies and trade facilitation
initiatives

Establishment of guidances for free trade negotiations

Fixation of import tariffs and tariff exemptions

Decision on export financing
CAMEX
CÂMARA DE COMÉRCIO EXTERIOR
PRESIDENCY OF THE
REPUBLIC / Council of
Government
CAMEX
Executive
Secretariat
Council of Ministers
CONEX
GTFAC
GECEX
GTDC
GTAR 08/08
COFIG
GTI-LETEC
GTCOP
GC MERCOSUL UE
Composition
• Ministry of Development, Industry and
Foreign Trade
• Ministry of Finance
• Ministry of External Relations
• Home Affairs Office
• Ministry of Planning and Budget
• Ministry of Agriculture
• Ministry of Agrarian Development
GTFAC
Technical Group of Trade Facilitation
(CAMEX Resolutions nº 70/2007 and nº 16/2008)
Scope: to advise the Council of Ministers on the formulation and
implementation of trade facilitation policies
Operation: coordination and integration of all different governmental
agencies dealing with register, license and control of imports and exports
aiming trade facilitation principles
3. An Overview of
Brazilian Foreign Trade
BRAZIL
5 Geographical Regions
26 Political entities (States) and 1
Federal District
Territorial Extension:
8.511.965 Km2
Sea boundaries:
7.367 km
Land boundaries
15.735 km
35 Internacional Airports
37 Public Ports
42 Private Terminal Ports
64 “Dry” Ports
24 Land Entry Points
Pop. 2010:
190 million
GDP 2011:
US$ 2,5 trillion
th
6 largest economy
Câmara de Comércio Exterior - CAMEX
13
Trade Balance Evolution
US$ Billions – 2002-2011
495
395
295
195
95
-5
2002
2003
2004
Corrente / Tradeflow
2005
2006
Exportação / Export
2007
2008
2009
Importação / Import
2010
2011
Saldo / Surplus
Brazilian Trade Balance
2011/2010
US$ Million
2011
2010
Δ%
2011/10
Exports
256.040
201.915
26,8
Imports
226.243
181.768
24,5
Surplus
29.796
20.147
47,9
Trade Flow
482.283
383.684
25,7
Brazilian Exports - Evolution
2002-2011
US$ Millions
256.040
201.915
197.942
160.649
152.995
137.807
118.529
96.677
60.439
2002
73.203
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Products Categories of Exports
% Share - 2002-2011
2,4
1,8
1,6
2,1
2,2
2,1
28,1
28,9
29,5
29,3
29,2
32,1
14,8
54,7
2002
15,0
54,3
2003
13,9
55,0
2004
13,5
55,1
2005
14,2
54,4
2006
13,6
52,3
2007
2,6
2,1
36,9
40,5
13,7
13,4
2,1
2,1
44,6
47,8
14,0
14,1
46,8
44,0
39,4
36,1
2008
2009
2010
2011
Oper. Esp. / Special Operations
Básicos / Primarios / Basics
Semimanufaturados / Semimanuf.
Manufaturados / Manufact.
Exports Evolution by category
US$ Millions - 2011
Value
Δ%
2011/10
%
Share
256.040
26,8
100,0
122.457
36,1
47,8
Manufactured
92.291
16,0
36,1
Semimanufactured
36.027
27,7
14,1
Total Export
Basics
Exports Evolution by category
US$ Millions - January–April – 2012
Value
Δ%
2012/11
% Share
74.646
4,5
100,0
34.622
4,5
46,4
Manufactured
28.379
6,0
38,0
Semimanufactured
9.811
-0,9
13,1
Total Export
Basics
Price and Quantum Index of Exports
% Growth – 2011/2010
31,3
23,2
20,9
14,1
2,9
Total
3,6
Básicos / Basics
Índice de Quantum
Quantum Index
5,6
1,7
Semimanuf. /
Semimanuf.
Manufat. /
Manufact.
Índice de Preço
Price Index
Main Products Exported
US$ Millions - 2011
Valor
Value
44.217

31.008

25.120

24.154

17.387

16.432

16.234

15.357

10.457

8.700


1 – Minérios / Minerios / Ores


2 – Petróleo e combustíveis / Petroleo y combustibles / Oil and fuel


3 – Material de transporte / Transport material


4 – Complexo soja / Soja y derivados / Soybeans & prods


5 – Produtos metalúrgicos / Productos metalúrgicos / Metallurgic products


6 – Açúcar e etanol / Azúcar y etanol / Sugar & ethanol


7 – Químicos / Chemicals


8 – Carnes / Meats


9 – Máqs. e equipamentos / Máqs. y aparatos / Machines & equipments


10 – Café / Coffee


11 – Papel e celulose / Papel y celulosa / Paper & pulp


12 – Equipamentos elétricos / Aparatos eléctricos / Electrical equipment


13 – Calçados e couro / Calzados y cuero/Footwear & leather


14 – Têxteis / Textiles


15 – Metais e Pedras Preciosas / Metales preciosos y piedras / Precious
metals
Δ%
2011/10
7.189
4.811
3.659
43,4

35,5

17,3
12,1
15,5

41,1

34,3

19,3

20,5

15,5

27,7

51,6

6,2

-0,1


4,1

33,0

30,4



3.012

2.961


Part %
% Share
9,8
9,4
6,8
6,4
6,3
6,0
4,1
3,4
2,8
1,9
1,4
1,2
1,2
Major Markets for Brazilian Exports
% Share - 2011
30,0
Ásia / Asia
América Latina e Caribe / Latin America & The
Caribbean
22,4
10,9
- Mercosul / Mercosur
- Demais da AL e Caribe / LA & The Caribbean, exc.
Mercosur
União Européia / European Union
11,5
,
20,7
10,1
Estados Unidos / United States
Oriente Médio / Middle East
4,8
África / Africa
4,8
Europa Oriental / Eastern Europe
2,0
52
19
20
34
15
21
64
42
31
27
50
12
38
Demais / Others
4
Europa Oriental /
Eastern Europe
14
África / Africa
10
Oriente Médio /
Middle East
76
Estados Unidos /
United States
77
União Européia /
European Union
América Latina e Caribe /
Latin America &
The Caribbean
Ásia / Asia
Exports Share % by Economic Blocks
2011
Manufaturados / Manufactured
Semimanufaturados / Semimanufactured
Básicos / Basics
32
16
46
41
33
25
Major Countries for Brazilian Exports
US$ Millions - 2011
Valor
Value
Δ%
2011/10
44.315

25.805

22.709

13.640

9.473

9.039

5.441

5.418

5.230

4.706

4.694

4.592

4.319

1 – China

2 – Estados Unidos / United States

3 – Argentina

4 – Países Baixos / Países Bajos / Netherlands

5 – Japão / Japón / Japan

6 – Alemanha / Alemania / Germany

7 – Itália / Italia / Italy

8 – Chile / Chile

9 – Reino Unido / United Kingdom

10 – Espanha / España / Spain

11 – Coréia do Sul / Corea del Sur / South Korea

12 – Venezuela

13 – França / France

14 – Rússia / Russia

15 – Bélgica / Belgium

4.216
3.960
Part %
% Share
43,9

17,3
33,7

10,1
22,6

33,4

32,7

11,1

28,5

27,2

12,8

20,9

24,8

19,2

20,8


1,6

13,9


8,9
5,3
3,7
3,5
2,1
2,1
2,0
1,8
1,8
1,8
1,7
1,7
1,6
Exporter States
Value
% Share
Brasil
256.040
100,00
Value
% Share

Ceará

1.403

0,55

São Paulo

59.909

23,40

Alagoas

1.372

0,54

Minas Gerais

41.393

16,17

Pernambuco

1.199

0,47

Rio de Janeiro

29.445

11,50

Amazonas

914

0,36

Rio Grande do Sul

19.427

7,59

Amapá

603

0,24

Pará

18.337

7,16

Rondônia

490

0,19

Paraná

17.394

6,79

Tocantins

486

0,19

Espírito Santo

15.159

5,92

Rio Grande do Norte

281

0,11

Mato Grosso

11.100

4,34

Paraíba

225

0,09

Bahia

11.016

4,30

Distrito Federal

184

0,07

Santa Catarina

9.051

3,54

Piauí

164

0,06

Goiás

5.605

2,19

Sergipe

122

0,05

Mato Grosso do Sul

3.916

1,53

Acre

17

0,01

Maranhão

3.047

1,19

Roraima

15

0,01
Exports by Company Size
% Share by Value of 2010
Pessoa Física /
Physical person
0,1%
Micro e Pequena
Empresa /
Small enterprise
1,0%
Média Empresa /
Medium enterprise
4,1%
Grande
Empresa /
Large enterprise
94,8%
Brazilian Exports Share % in World Exports
2002 - 2011
1,44
1,36
1,16
1,17
1,18
2005
2006
2007
1,26
1,25
2008
2009
1,08
0,96
2002
0,99
2003
2004
2010
2011
Imports Evolution
2002-2011
US$ Millions
226.243
181.768
172.985
127.722
120.617
91.351
62.836
73.600
47.243 48.326
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Import by Product Categories
Share % - 2002–2011
24,7
12,5
13,2
21,4
19,3
20,9
20,7
20,8
20,8
11,5
10,9
11,5
13,1
13,3
13,0
13,6
16,4
16,6
16,6
18,2
16,2
23,3
22,6
21,2
16,9
17,3
17,7
13,1
14,0
16,0
49,6
53,5
53,5
51,3
49,6
49,3
48,0
46,8
46,2
45,1
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Bens de Capital / Bienes de Capital / Capital Goods
Bens de Consumo / Bienes de Consumo / Consumption Goods
Petróleo e Combustíveis / Petróleo y Combustibles / Oil and Fuel
Bens Intermediários / Bienes Intermedios / Intermediate Goods
Price and Quantum Index of Imports
% Growth
2011/2010
38,4
27,1
14,3
15,3
12,9
9,3
8,9
5,8
4,5
Total
12,8
Bens de Capital
Bienes de Capital /
Capital Goods
6,5
3,8
Bens
Bens de consumo Bens de consumo
Petróleo e
Intermediários
não-duráveis
duráveis
Combustíveis
Bienes de consumo no
Bienes de consumo Petróleo y Combustibles / Bienes Intermedios /
Intermediate Goods
duraderos /
duraderos /
Oil and Fuel
Non-durables
Durables consumption
consumption goods
Índice de Quantum
Índice de Preço
Quantum Index
Price Index
Main Products Imported
US$ Millions - 2011
Valor
Value
1 – Combustíveis e Lubrificantes / Combustibles y Lubricantes / Fuel and Oil
2 – Equip. Mecânicos / Aparatos Mecánicos / Mechanical Equipment
3 – Equip. Elétricos e Eletrônicos
4 – Automóveis e partes / Vehículos y partes / Motor Vehicles and parts
5 – Químicos Orgân. e Inorgânicos
%
Share

40,1

18,5
33.703

18,1

14,9

26.395

18,6


22.621

30,9

11.765

14,9


/ Químicos Orgánicos e Inorgánicos / Organic and Inorganic
Chemicals
2011/10
Part %
41.968

/ Aparatos Eléctricos y Electrónicos / Electrical and Electronical
Equipment
Δ%

11,7
10,0
5,2
6 – Fertilizantes / Fertilizantes / Fertilizers

9.138

84,9

7 – Plásticos e Obras / Plásticos y Obras / Plastics and its Products

8.104

24,3

3,6
8 – Ferro, Aço e Obras / Hierro, Acero y Obras / Iron, Steel and its Products

7.583

-3,8

3,4
9 – Farmacêuticos / Farmacéuticos / Pharmaceuticals

6.499

6,7

2,9
10 – Instr. Ótica e Precisão / Aparatos de Óptica y Precisión / Optical and Precision Equipment

6.302

3,4

2,8
11 – Borracha e obras / Goma y obras / Rubber and its products

5.103

27,9

2,3

3.245

16,5

1,4
2.775

12,4

1,2
9,7

1,1
12 – Cereais e produtos de moagem / Cereales y productos de molinería / Cereals and milling
products
13 – Cobre e suas obras / Cobre y obras / Cooper and its products

14 – Aeronaves e Peças / Aeronaves y partes / Airplanes and its parts

15 – Filamentos e fibras Sintét. E Artif. / Filamentos y Fibras Sintéticas y Artificiales / Synthetic
2.516

4,0
Major Suppliers Markets to Brazil
% Share - 2011
Ásia / Asia
31,0
União Européia / European Union
20,5
América Latina e Caribe / Latin America & The
Caribbean
16,7
- Mercosul / Mercosur
8,6
- Demais da AL e Caribe / LA & The Caribbean,
exc. Mercosur
8,1
Estados Unidos / United States
15,1
África / Africa
6,8
Oriente Médio / Middle East
2,7
Europa Oriental / Eastern Europe
2,3
Major Supplier Countries to Brazil
US$ Millions – 2011
Valor
Value
Δ%
2011/10
1 – Estados Unidos / United States

33.962

2 – China

32.788

3 – Argentina

16.906

4 – Alemanha / Alemania / Germany

15.213


10.097

6 – Nigéria / Nigeria

8.386

7 – Japão / Japón / Japan

7.872

8 – Itália / Italia / Italy

6.222


6.081

10 – França / Francia / France

5.462

11 – México / Mexico

5.130

12 – Chile

4.569
13 – Canadá / Canada

3.553

14 – Taiwan

3.509

15 – Reino Unido / United Kingdom

3.376
5 – Coréia do Sul / Coreia del Sur / South Korea
9 – Índia / India
Part %
% Share
25,6

15,0
28,1

14,5
17,1

21,2

19,9

41,7

12,7

28,6

43,3

13,8

33,0


9,3

30,9

13,0

7,0


7,5
6,7
4,5
3,7
3,5
2,8
2,7
2,4
2,3
2,0
1,6
1,6
1,5
4. Bilateral Trade:
Brazil X Russia
4. Bilateral Trade:
Brazil X BRICS
5. Foreign Trade in a
Globalized World:
Final Considerations
A changing world…
What to do?
 A new economic reality requires new trade approach
• Global companies
 Market orientation: one eye out, one eye in:
balance between external market X domestic market
 New currencies must take over
 Multilateralism X Regionalism
 RISKS:
• geopolitical tensions
• multiple financial crises
• protectionism
• climate change
Multilateralism: the stalemate
at the core of the WTO
 WTO is complete: Welcome Russia!
 Doha “Development” Round stuck
(dismantlement of the “single undertaking”)
 USA X emerging countries (the blame game)
Preassures:
• “Early harvest” - mainly on trade facilitation
• Regional integration and the Trans Pacific
Partnership (TPP) effect
• Financial crisis and the advance of protectionism
Challenges
and opportunities
ahead!
 Goverments must follow the timing of the businesses –
quick answers
 Trade facilitation means competitiveness: transparency,
predictability, speed, intelligent risk analysis, elimination of
unnecessary burdens and controls, coordination among
agencies, customs working for economic operators
 Diversification of products and destinies
 Reorientation of trade relations – new economic alliances
 Sustainability
THANK YOU!
CHAMBER OF FOREIGN TRADE (CAMEX)
Presidency of the Republic of Brazil
Esplanada dos Ministérios
Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria e Comércio Exterior
Bloco “J”, 7º andar, sala 700
Brasília – DF, CEP: 70053-900
Telephones: + (55 61) 2027-7050 / 2027-7090
Fax: + (55 61) 2027-7049
[email protected]
46