Business Plan
2– Customer Development
Process
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How Big is the Market?
• Identify a Customer and Market Need
• Size the Market
• Identify the competitors
• Evaluate growth potential
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How Big is the Market?
Definição do Mercado Relevante
• Exemplo: Qual o mercado da BMW?
– Mercado automóvel?
– Mercado de automóveis de luxo?
– Mercado automóvel europeu/mundial?
• Critérios para definição do mercado:
– GEOGRAFIA
– GRAU de SUBSTITUIÇÃO
– Código CAE rev3
(http://www.ine.pt/ine_novidades/semin/cae/CAE_RE
V_3.pdf)
– Concorrência
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How Big is the Market?
Definição do Mercado Relevante
• Através de informação primária e
secundária, estabelecer:
– Dimensão do mercado (vendas do mercado
quantidade e valor)
– Taxa de crescimento
– Importância do produto para o cliente.
Elasticidade da procura i.e. produtos que o
cliente “tem de ter”
– Maturidade
– Número de concorrentes actuais/potenciais,
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TAM (Total Available Market)
• How Big is the pie?
– How many people would
want/need te product?
– How large is the market if
they all bough?
Total Available
Market
• How do I find out?
– Industry Analysis
(Euromonitor, Gartner,
Nilesen…)
– Wall Street Analyst Report
– Google
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SAM (Served Available Market)
• How Big is the pie?
– How many people need/
can use the product?
– How many have the
money to buy?
– Understand for
dollars/units
Total Available
Market
Served Available
Market
• How do I find out?
– Talk to potential
customers
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TM (Target Market)
• How Big is the pie?
– Who am I going to sell to
in years 1, 2, and 3?
– How many customers is
that?
– How large if they all
bought?
• How do I find out?
– Talk to potential
customers
– Talk to channels
partners/ competitors
Total Available
Market
Served Available
Market
Target
Market
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Definitions
• TAM = how big is the
universe
• SAM= how many can
I reach with my sales
channel
Total Available
Market
Served Available
Market
Target
Market
• TM (for startup)= who
will be the most likely
buyers
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Market Size
Summary
• Market Size Questions
– Define the main market
– How big can this market be (TAM; SAM; TM)?
– How much of it can we get?
– Market growth rate
– Market structure
– Market cycle
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Market Size:
How to get information?
1. Talk to customers and sales channels
2. Government Sources: Banco de Portugal e INE
• Informação sobre o sector ou sobre ratios financeiros de
empresas “semelhantes”
http://www.ine.pt/xportal/xmain?xpid=INE&xpgid=ine_base_dado
s:
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Market Size:
How to get information?
3. Industry and Market Information:
• The Wall Street Analyst Reports
• Forester
• Plunkett (industry data, market research, trends, forecasts)
• Euromonitor (consumer market sizes; competitors and brands)
• Gartner (technology markets)
• Frost and Sullivan (industry-specific information: aerospace and
defense; chemical/material; telecom/IT, consumer products)
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Market Size:
How to get information?
4. Competitive Company and Product
• Competitors websites
• Dunn & Bradstreet
• Business Source Complete (company and industry informationDatamonitor)
• Hoovers (large and small links by NAICS)
• Mergent (detailed company and product information)
5. Trade Associations and Trade Publications
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Quiz: How would you estimate the SAM
for na Android Game?
1. Number of total web users
2. Total number of mobile phone users
3. Total number of active Android users
4. Total number of active Android users with
the right level of OS to support the game
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features