Flexibilizing the Brazilian Power Sector:
moving beyond large hydro plants with new
technologies, energy efficiency and the role of the
consumer
Gilberto M Jannuzzi University of Campinas Content •  The energy context: the recent past and challenges •  Areas of current research –  Energy planning and policy –  Technology foresight studies –  ResidenBal end-­‐uses surveys and measurements The Energy Context The energy scene •  Total energy demand is increasing faster than GDP (2012-­‐13: GDP growth 2.3% x Energy 4.5%) •  Power sector: historically hydro-­‐dependent (70-­‐80% annual consumpBon supplied by hydroelectricty) •  Climate changes: recurrent drought and changing river flow ENERGIA ARMAZENADA EM RESERVATÓRIOS: 2000 a 2014 Energia Hídrica média Armazenada [MW/ano] 225.000 200.000 175.000 SIN 150.000 SE/CO 125.000 100.000 S 75.000 N 50.000 NE 25.000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ANO 18% 5% 8% S SE/CO 69% Fonte: Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico – ONS (2014) NE N 12 EvoluBon of the energy stored in water resevoirs 2013-­‐2022 (PNE 2030) Analisando a previsão de capacidade de armazenamento dos reservatórios ao final do ano de 2022, percebe-­‐se que, em termos percentuais, a elevação de 2% é bem inferior ao aumento da capacidade instalada de usinas hidrelétricas, de 40%. Fonte: Plano Nacional de Energia – PNE 2030 13 Our current research Our studies 1.  Energy future outlook studies: Modelling policies to disseminate distributed RE generaBon technologies and energy efficiency. Market transformaBon potenBals and policies. Water and Electricity linkages. 2.  Energy technology assessment needs for climate miBgaBon and adaptaBon (including new storage technologies ). DomesBc R&D capacity and technology transfer issues. 3.  ResidenBal consumer behaviour: end-­‐use metering and surveys (refrigerator, lighBng and water heaBng). Low income energy efficiency programmes. Smart grids in the residenBal sector Our approach Climate
policies
Energy
policies
Socioeconomic
delopment
policies
Renewable
Energy
Energy
Efficiency
Science,
Technology
and Innovation
policies
Integrated Resources Planning End-­‐use efficiency Demand-­‐
response INTERFACE TECHNOLOGIES DSM, consumer behaviour Materials, Storage technologies Supply side efficiency DEMAND-­‐SIDE RESOURCES Smart appliances, grids, meters Energy sources (primary and secndary) Flexibilize and Integrate Supply And Demand Resources SUPPLY-­‐SIDE RESOURCES Energy for Sustainable Development 17 (2013) 40–46
Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect
Energy for Sustainable Development
Grid-connected photovoltaic in Brazil: Policies and potential impacts for 2030
Gilberto de Martino Jannuzzi a,⁎, Conrado Augustus de Melo b
a
Universidade Estadual de Campinas, UNICAMP, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica and International Energy Initiative, IEI-LA, Caixa Postal 6122, Campinas, SP 13083-970, Brazil
Universidade Estadual de Campinas, UNICAMP, Núcleo Interdisciplinar de Planejamento Energético, NIPE e Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, FAPESP,
Caixa Postal 6166, Campinas, SP 13083-896, Brazil
b
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history:
Received 14 May 2012
Revised 22 October 2012
Accepted 22 October 2012
Available online 22 November 2012
Keywords:
Solar energy
Grid-connected photovoltaics
Policy mechanisms
Diffusion scenarios
a b s t r a c t
This paper presents a prospective analysis of grid connected solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the Brazilian
household sector. With the reduction of solar PV module prices around the world and the high tariffs for residential consumers in Brazil some regions of the country with large solar radiation resource are reaching the grid
electricity-price parity. In this context the objective of this paper is to evaluate scenarios of technology diffusion
up to 2030 considering policy mechanisms to foster the development of grid connected PV generation. The three
mechanisms assessed are the net metering compensation scheme as proposed by the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL), feed-in tariffs and direct subsidies to PV installations. We evaluate the market penetration potential in each case using a logit-function approach. The investigation results show that PV distributed
technology has good opportunities for Brazil to diversify its energy matrix with potential economic and environmental benefits. However it is clear that the absence of long-term energy policy objectives for solar PV and the
lack of additional support mechanisms could reflect in an inefficient and incipient adoption of this technology
and the loss of its potential benefits.
© 2012 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Jannuzzi, Gilberto de Mar2no, and Conrado Augustus de Melo. 2013. “Grid-­‐Connected Photovoltaic in Brazil: Policies and Poten2al Impacts for 2030.” Energy for Sustainable Development 17 (1): 40–46. doi:10.1016/j.esd.2012.10.010. Introduction
In Brazil solar photovoltaic systems have become an interesting option
to support the market penetration of renewable technologies other
than the conventional hydroelectric projects.
ANEEL approved in the year 2012 the regulation 482 (ANEEL, 2011a,
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Gilberto De Martino Jannuzzi1∗ and José Goldemberg2
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You are here: Home Page > Social Sciences > Economics > Economic Development & Growth > Economic Development > Energy Poverty
The need to promote significant changes in the production and use of energy in
the direction of cleaner fuels and greater energy efficiency provide opportunities
to reduce this gap of energy
consumption
indices between the rich and poor, both
Energy
Poverty
in developing and developed countries. Wide disparities in the access and consumption levels of modern
fuelsChallenges
and electricity
persist
between developing
Global
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progress
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Edited
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Halff, Benjamin
K. Sovacool,
and access to
electricity and cleaner cooking
fuels
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Jon Rozhon
of poor population. However, more efforts are necessary in order to speed up the
A one-stop
treatment
of energy
poverty,
an issue
reduction of the energy gap
and eliminate
energy
poverty.
Greater
investments
whose
pivotal
role
in
the
fight
for
human
in energy efficiency are an essential part of this strategy and some countries are
pursuing it. ⃝C 2012 John Wileydevelopment
& Sons, Ltd. and against poverty is only now being
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A practical
andarticle:
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WIREs Energy policymakers
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1: 41–50
doi: 10.1002/wene.20
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in the field
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INTRODUCTION
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472 Pages | 83 Figures, 70
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Provides a fresh perspective on tomorrow's energy
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Brings together diverse viewpoints and includes
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remain at current levels
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Includes chapters solid
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Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect
Energy Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol
Evaluating public policy mechanisms for climate change mitigation
in Brazilian buildings sector
Conrado Augustus de Melo b,nn, Gilberto de Martino Jannuzzi a,n, Aline Ferreira Tripodi a
a
Universidade Estadual de Campinas, UNICAMP, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica and International Energy Initiative, IEI-LA, Caixa Postal 6122, Campinas,
SP 13083-970, Brazil
b
Universidade Estadual de Campinas, UNICAMP, Núcleo Interdisciplinar de Planejamento Energético (NIPE), Campinas, SP 13083-896, Brazil
H I G H L I G H T S
!
!
!
!
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We apply a multi-criteria analysis to evaluate EE and RES policies mechanisms.
We apply marginal abatement cost curves to evaluate EE and RES policies mechanisms.
We provide rankings of mechanisms according to their prospective potential impacts.
There is a significant cost effective energy saving potential in Brazilian buildings.
Brazil should improve MEPS and implement other policy mechanisms.
De Melo, Conrado Augustus, Gilberto de Mar2no Jannuzzi, and Aline Ferreira Tripodi. 2013. “Evalua2ng Public Policy Mechanisms for Climate Change Mi2ga2on in Brazilian Buildings Sector.” Energy Policy 61 (October): 1200–1211. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.056. art ic l e i nf o
abstract
Article history:
Received 19 February 2013
Accepted 13 June 2013
This paper applies a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) and marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) to
evaluate public policies mechanisms to promote the dissemination of energy efficiency (EE) and on-site
renewable energy sources (RES) technologies in Brazilian buildings sector. The objective here is to bring
together the advantages of both methods in order to provide more valuable insights to policy makers.
Energy Technology Foresight, Needs and DomesBc Capacity Status Jannuzzi, Gilberto M., P. H. M. Sant’Ana, and R. D. M. Gomes. 2008. Energias Do Futuro. Brasília: CGEE -­‐ Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos. hrp://
gilbertomarBno.wordpress.com/2009/07/15/energias-­‐do-­‐futuro-­‐relatorio-­‐
final/. Jannuzzi, G. M., P. H. M. Sant’Ana, and R. D. M. Gomes. 2010. Oportunidades Para a Difusão de Tecnologias de Energia Limpas: Subsídios Para a ParBcipação Nacional Na Conferência de Mudança Do Clima. Brasília: CGEE -­‐ Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos. Jannuzzi, G. M., P. H. M. Sant’Ana, and R. D. M. Gomes. 2009. Integração de Agenda Mudanças ClimáBcas: Energia E Desenvolvimento. Brasília: CGEE -­‐ Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos. Gilberto M Jannuzzi, and Marcelo K Poppe. 2011. “Desenvolvimento, Cooperação e Transferência de Tecnologias EnergéBcas de Baixa Emissão.” In “
Mudança do clima no Brasil: aspectos econômicos, sociais e regulatórios“, 195-­‐210. Brasília: IPEA. Also in English: Development, ” Climate Change in Brazil: Economic, Social and Regulatory Aspects“, Editors: Seroa da Mora, R., Hargrave, J.; Luedemann, G.; and GuBerrez, B. S., Brasília, Ipea, 2011 Researchers involved •  UNICAMP –  G. M Jannuzzi, S. Bajay, A. Furtado, E. Camilo, A. Causo •  CGEE –  M. Poppe •  University of Bochum –  Prof. C. Pielow, I. Heitmann •  InternaBonal Energy IniBaBve –  R. Gomes, C. Melo, J Paccola, P Santana Supporters (Last 5 years) NOPA PROGRAM sources 1.  Balanço EnergéBco Nacional 2014 -­‐ BEN (2014). “Ano-­‐base 2013”. 2.  Empresa de Pesquisa EnergéBca -­‐ EPE: Séries Históricas Completas – Capítulo 1 Análise EnergéBca e Dados Agregados 1970 a 2013. 3.  Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia 2022. EPE e MME, 2013. 4.  Plano Nacional de Energia 2030. EPE e MME, 2007. 5.  Estudos de Demanda de Energia: Nota Técnica DEA 13/14 – Demanda 2050. EPE e MME, 2014. 6.  Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica: Consulta ao Banco de Dados de Geração. ANEEL, 2014. 7.  Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico: Consulta ao Banco de Dados de Operação. ONS, 2014. 26 THANK YOU