Brazilian Potential for Oil and Gas Seminar on Marine Mineral Resources of the South and Equatorial Atlantic Ocean Clayton de Souza Pontes Ministry of Mines and Energy Secretariat of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Renewable Fuels November 28, 2008 Ministério de Minas e Energia Summary Introduction Methodology Multivariable Area Relevance Function (FIMA) Petroliferous Area Relevance (IPA) Conclusions Ministério de Minas e Energia Introduction Objective To set up an updated database, with mapped zones, containing the relative economical relevance of different regions in Brazil, concerning the oil and gas sector Importance Territorial ordination programs Sedimentary basins relevance for oil industry activities (upstream and downstream) Planning block offers at bid rounds Redirect Agency resources to the study of sedimentary basins Annual revision, based on updated information Ministério de Minas e Energia Development Team MME/SPG-EPE Agreement: National Zoning of Oil and Gas Resources Team MME/SPG João José de Nora Souto - Secretário-Adjunto de Petróleo, Gás Natural e Combustíveis Renováveis José Botelho Neto - Diretor de Política de Exploração e Produção de Petróleo e Gás Natural Clayton de Souza Pontes - Coordenador-Geral Antônio Henrique Godoy Ramos - Gestor Team EPE Ricardo Nascimento e Silva do Valle - Superintendente de Petróleo Reneu Rodrigues da Silva - coordenação técnica Claudio Bettini Norival Brisola Saulo Pedrinha Guimarães Jefferson Acioli Machado Regina Freitas Fernandes Gildo Gabriel da Costa Marcos Frederico Souza Aldeir Dias Bernardo Ministério de Minas e Energia 70°0'0"W O&G Industry in Brazil 60°0'0"W 50°0'0"W 40°0'0"W 30°0'0"W 20°0'0"W # BOA VISTA # ## MACAPÁ # BELÉM # # 0°0'0" # # # MANAUS SÃO LUÍS ## FORTALEZA ## TERESINA# PORTO VELHO # # PALMAS # # # # ## # ## CUIABÁ # ## # GOIÂNIA # # # ## # # # ## ## BELO # HORIZONTE ## VITÓRIA CAMPO GRANDE # # # # # ### ## # # # # # # #### # # ######### # # # # DE # ###JANEIRO # # ### #SÃORIO ##### PAULO# # # # ## # # #CURITIBA # ### ## # # # ### # FLORIANÓPOLIS ## # # # # ### # PORTO ALEGRE # # # 0 70°0'0"W 60°0'0"W 50°0'0"W 175 350 700 40°0'0"W 1.050 1.400 Kilometers # Bases combustíveis UPGN Produtores_de_Derivados Refinarias - processamento Estações Terminais Petróleo e Gás Dutos_em_Construção Dutos em Planejamento Dutos Instalados Campos de Producao blocos exploracao RODADA - ANO 1 - 1999 2 - 2000 3 - 2001 4 - 2002 5 - 2003 6 - 2004 7 - 2005 9 - 2007 Bacias Sedimentares 30°0'0"W 20°0'0"W 10°0'0"S # ## # JOÃO PESSOA# # # RECIFE # # ## MACEIÓ ## ARACAJU ## ## SALVADOR # # # RIO BRANCO # NATAL 20°0'0"S # 30°0'0"S 0°0'0" # Ministério de Minas e Energia Methodology Database Exploration and production Prepared to support a first mapping relevance of areas concerning upstream activities Downstream Data from the infrastructure of oil & gas downstream industry Reference date: April, 2007 Ministério de Minas e Energia Data Collection: new E&P resources Common knowledge ANP site Classified information ANP sheets Data from oil and gas fields Recent petroleum discoveries from areas under evaluation Ministério de Minas e Energia Data Collection: undiscovered E&P resources Strategy 1: geological approach using plays Strategy 2: engage university support: GORCEIX Foundation Northern basins COPPETEC Foundation Eastern basins FUNDUNESP Foundation Southern basins Strategy 3: focus on acquired knowledge about the areas, avoiding new geological interpretation Ministério de Minas e Energia Data Processing Attributes definition: Mappable Relevant (to the relevance function) Complementary (with relevance for the O&G sector) Three data sets for analysis Areas with undiscovered resourses or potential (1) Area with discovered resources (2) Areas with infrastructure (3) Ministério de Minas e Energia Database Processing The attributes defined for the database were inserted into a geographical information system, becoming a set of georeferenced tables which can be visualized as a map Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables Effective basins Effective Basin Area (sq km): Sedimentary basin subset with real chances for petroleum or natural gas accumulations. Can also be defined as the geographical union of their effective plays Absolute Prospectivity (sq km): Prospective area with a regional geologic risk, representing the total area of the prospects weighted by the related subplay chances Relative Prospectivity (%): Ratio between the Absolute Prospectivity and the Effective Area Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables Sedimentary basins and geographical position Situação Terra/Mar T T T T T T T T M T T T T M T M T M T T Nome da Bacia Sedimentar Acre Afogados de Ingazeira Alagoas Alto Tapajós Amazonas Araripe Bananal Barreirinhas Barreirinhas Betânia Bom Nome Bragança-Vizeu Camamu-Almada Camamu-Almada Campos Campos Ceará Ceará Cedro Cumuruxatiba Área Sedimentar (km²) Fonte de Interpretação 97.469 GORCEIX 264 7.620 76.524 606.237 10.091 87.117 8.849 89.135 261 41 7.929 2.715 83.504 6.522 153.988 11.380 153.903 534 8.445 Não Estudada COPPE GORCEIX GORCEIX COPPE Não Estudada GORCEIX GORCEIX Não Estudada Não Estudada GORCEIX COPPE COPPE FUNDUNESP FUNDUNESP GORCEIX GORCEIX Não Estudada COPPE Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables Effective basins (#32): Nome da Bacia Efetiva Acre Alagoas Amazonas Araripe Barreirinhas Barreirinhas Camamu-Almada Campos Ceará Cumuruxatiba Cumuruxatiba Espírito Santo-Mucuri Espírito Santo-Mucuri Situação Terra/Mar T T T T T M M M M T M T M Área Efetiva Prospectividade Prospectividade (km²) Relativa Absoluta (km²) 15.167 4.377 267.340 10.091 7.342 43.555 18.487 89.928 33.717 223 18.071 5.186 30.601 0,003% 0,341% 0,406% 0,012% 1,909% 1,073% 2,677% 3,686% 4,244% 0,000% 1,733% 0,566% 1,598% 0,48 14,91 1085,60 1,25 140,12 467,53 494,96 3314,50 1430,88 0,00 313,08 29,35 489,00 Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables Effective Plays (#96): Play chance degree Main exploratory condition Established Immature New frontier Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Maps Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables Reservoir attributes for each effective play table: Segment depth Lithostratigraphic unit Lithology Chronostratigraphic unit Reservoir chance degree factor Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables Charge attributes for each effective play table: Source rock lithostratigraphic unit Source rock chronostratigraphic unit Charge chance degree factor Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables Trap attributes for each effective play table: Cap rock lithostratigraphic unit Cap rock lithology Cap rock chronostratigraphic unit Trap types Trap chance degree factor Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables Main fluid type attributes for each effective play table: Natural gas chance factor in case of hydrocarbon discovery Light to medium petroleum chance factor in case of hydrocarbon discovery Light petroleum chance factor in case of light to medium petroleum discovery Expected main fluid type Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables Effective basins fluid table: Situação Terra/Mar T T Nome da Bacia Efetiva Acre Alagoas T T Amazonas Araripe T Barreirinhas M Barreirinhas M M Camamu-Almada Campos M T M Ceará Cumuruxatiba Cumuruxatiba Fluidos Predominantes Petróleo e Gás Petróleo e Gás Gás (NãoAssociado); Petróleo e Gás Petróleo Petróleo; Petróleo e Gás Petróleo; Petróleo e Gás; Gás (NãoAssociado) Petróleo; Petróleo e Gás Petróleo Petróleo; Petróleo e Gás Petróleo Petróleo Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Maps Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables Prospects for each effective play table: Area (sq km) Visibility: Identified Indicated Conceptual Possible localization Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables Exploratory Blocks: Localization Wells: Localization and results Oil and natural gas fields: Name Localization Main fluid Type Exploration project stage Evaluation Development Production Ministério de Minas e Energia Multivariable Area Relevance Function (Função de Importância Multiargumentos de Área - FIMA) Ministério de Minas e Energia Function Construction (FIMA) General concept: It is a function to be applied over each studied element area in order to define its relevance (IPA) for the petroleum and natural gas sector IPA = FIMA (AREA) Ministério de Minas e Energia FIMA’s Variable Selection Six variables were chosen based on E&P information, which were applied over the three types of areas defined for the work with their degree of relevance for the oil and natural gas sector Hydrocarbon direct evidence; 2. Relative prospectivity (*); 3. Lack of knowledge; and 4. Exploration activities 1. AREA_1: area without any petroleum discoveries AREA_2: area with petroleum discoveries 5. Production activities AREA_3: area with downstream infrastructure 6. Downstream infrastructure (*) Higher prospectivity for higher values, classified from 1 to 9 Ministério de Minas e Energia FIMA: Variables Standardization The relevance of the basin area was classified from 1 to 9 according to the distance from the main information 6 onde: = Ai xy Ai xy =xy PiP,i ,onde: IPAxyIPA 6 i 1 i 1 Where: xy : área elementar de aplicação, correspondente a um pixel de 1 km²; xy: theelementar application area (pixelcorrespondente of 1 sq km) a um pixel de 1 size xy :ofárea de aplicação, Ai xy : valor padronizado do i-ésimo argumento em xy; Ai (xy): for the arguments in the xy position padronizado do i-ésimo argumento em xy; Ai standard xy : valorvalue 6 do i-ésimo argumento, tal que Pi 1,0 . Na pres Pi : peso Pi: relative weight forrelativo the argument, considering i 1 6 deste relatório, atribui-se o all mesmo pesoquepara os For the weight 17% argumento, for arguments this peso relativo dowas i-ésimo tal Pi :work Ptodos i 1,0 . N aproximadamente 17%. Entretanto, a ferramenta utilizada é flexível i 1 para permitir que alterações nesses pesos sejam feitas com facil relatório, atribui-se o mesmo peso pararelativa todos deste IPAxy = 9,17%. se xy pertence a bloco aexploratório, a campo de petróleo aproximadamente Entretanto, ferramenta utilizada é fl infra-estrutura de abastecimento. para permitir que alterações nesses pesos sejam feitas com relativ Ministério de Minas e Energia IPA: Hydrocarbon Direct Evidence •Hydrocarbon direct evidence - Relative distance to the closest well in the basin which has confirmed the existence of hydrocarbons Ministério de Minas e Energia •Relative prospectivity -Area of the effective basin with possibility to have any field discoveries IPA: Relative Prospectivity Ministério de Minas e Energia IPA: Lack of Knowledge Lack of knowledge Match between the chance degree and the exploratory stage of each play (from 1 to 9 according to the degree of knowledge) The result means the uncertainty of the behavior for the regional geological factors related to the O&G accumulations The higher values for this argument shows the least studied areas in the basins. Areas out of the effective basin got the value 1 Ministério de Minas e Energia IPA: Lack of Knowledge Ministério de Minas e Energia IPA: Exploration Activities • Exploration activities - Relative distance to the closest exploration block polygon in the basin Ministério de Minas e Energia IPA: Production Activities • Production activities - Relative distance to the closest O&G field polygon in the basin Ministério de Minas e Energia IPA: Downstream Infrastructure •Downstream infrastruture - Distance to the center of the closest downstream facility. For places outside the sedimentary area the range of 5 km was attributed for existent facilities and 20 km to the planned ones Ministério de Minas e Energia Petroliferous Relevance Areas Importância Petrolífera das Áreas ( IPA ) Ministério de Minas e Energia Total IPA (equally weighted) 60° W 50° W 40° W 70° W 60° W 50° W 40° W 30° S 30° S 20° S 20° S 10° S 10° S 0° 0° 70° W Ministério de Minas e Energia Conclusions In this project a georeferenced database was built, with hundreds of mappable attributes, of which some are original, related to the oil and gas sector relevance of any area in the country The results are unpublished and specially important for the Ministry of Mines and Energy It can be improved in other projects with additional information and interpretation It can be used to support Exploration and Production policies related to the National Energy Plan Ministério de Minas e Energia Conclusions The final map (IPA) from this project allows evaluating the relevance of places greater than 1 sq km for the O&G sector up to the range of 200 miles from the shore line The final map of IPA also shows that most of the country area has some relevance for the O&G sector. Exceptions are some basement areas without infrastructure and sedimentary basins with no potential for oil and gas The basins with higher degree of E&P activities, like most of the offshore basins, are pointed in the maps with higher relevance, as expected Ministério de Minas e Energia Conclusions Maps updating The dynamics of the O&G sector turns the updating of the database mandatory, in order to keep the maps reliable