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Bancarização na América Latina e a
Macroeconomia
Fórum Brasil – União Europeia
Ilan Goldfajn – Economista-chefe Itaú Unibanco
Latin America presents some structural opportunities for banking
Structural trend towards increasing household income
• In the last 10 years, almost 90 million people had overcome poverty line in
Latin America, which means a greater potential market
2
Opportunities for Banking in Latin America
The positive results experienced in the past few years offer great opportunities:
More than 90 million people had overcome poverty line in Latin America
Number of people that had overcome the poverty line in Latin
America from 1999 to 2007 (million)
Total
Venezuela
Uruguay
Peru
Mexico
Ecuador
Colombia
Chile
Brazil
Bolivia
Argentina
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
Source: Wold Bank - Finance for All? Policies and Pitfalls in Expanding Access
3
85
95
Latin America presents some structural opportunities for banking
Structural trend towards increasing household income
• In the last 10 years, almost 90 million people had overcome poverty line in
Latin America, which means a greater potential market
Increase access to banking services in Latin America
• On average only 36% of the families have access to banking services
• Main barrier: costs of banking services
4
Opportunities for Banking in Latin America
Access to banking services families with a bank account
% of
families
Chile
Panama
Brazil
Uruguay
Colombia
Ecuador
Bolívia
Paraguay
Costa Rica
Argentina
Venezuela
Peru
Mexico
60
46
43
42
41
35
30
30
29
28
28
26
25
Finland
Germany
France
USA
99
97
96
91
Number of branches per
100.000 in habitants
Average Potential
36
60
96
Number Average
Brazil
14,59
Panama
12,87
Argentina 10,01
Costa Rica 9,59
Chile
9,39
Ecuador
9,30
Colombia
8,74
Mexico
7,63
Uruguay
6,39
Venezuela 4,41
Peru
4,17
Bolivia
1,53
8,22
Germany
France
USA
Finland
35,64
Potential
27,42
49,41
43,23
30,86
19,06
5
Source: Wold Bank - Finance for All? Policies and Pitfalls in Expanding Access
Latin America presents some structural opportunities for banking
Structural trend towards increasing household income
• In the last 10 years, almost 90 million people had overcome poverty line in
Latin America, which means a greater potential market
Increase access to banking services in Latin America
• On average only 36% of the families have access to banking services
• Main barrier: costs of banking services
Increase domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP)
• LatAm average = 38,4% vs Advanced Economies average = 175%
• Focus on loans with “real” collaterals linked to the nature of each productive
chain
6
Opportunities for Banking in Latin America
Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP)
Despite the high growth in recent years, LatAm countries still
have a low credit GDP ratio.
%
200
150
LatAm Countries
100
50
0
USA
Ireland Netherlands UK
Spain
Japa
n
South
Africa
China* Australia South
Korea
France
Belgium
Chile
Brazil
Russi
a
Colombia TurkeyIndonesia
Mexico
Source: Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP). World Development7Indicators 2009, World Bank,
*Hong Kong
Peru
Projeção 7,5% de crescimento contempla desaceleração adiante
Se confirmada a nossa expectativa de crescimento de 3,0% QoQ/sa no 1T, economia precisa
desacelerar para cerca de 1% de crescimento por trimestre para fechar 2010 com expansão acima
de 7%
PIB: variação ante o trimestre anterior com ajuste sazonal
4%
9
3%
2%
1.8%
1.2% 1.2%
2010
8.2
8
2.0%
1.8%
1T: +3.0
2T-4T
3.0%
2.3%
Crescimento do PIB (%)
10
7.4
1.7%
1.2%
1.4%
1.4%
1.2%
7
6.5
1.0% 1.0%
1%
6
5
0%
4
-1%
-0.9%
3
-2%
2
1.5
1.0
-3%
1
Fonte: Itaú e IBGE/ Elaboração: Itaú Unibanco
2010 T4
2010 T3
2010 T2
2010 T1
2009 T4
2009 T3
2009 T2
0
2009 T1
2008 T3
2008 T2
2008 T1
2007 T4
2007 T3
2007 T2
2007 T1
2008 T4
-3.5%
-4%
0.5
1
2
3
8
Risco: A Crise na Europa
• Os países da periferia da zona do euro têm um desafio relevante de consolidação fiscal
à frente num ambiente de baixo crescimento.
• O pacote de auxílio (European Stabilization Mechanism) envolve EUR 60 bi de países da
União Europeia, EUR 440 bi de garantias dos países da zona do euro a uma SPV que
emprestaria os recursos, mais EUR 250 bi do FMI. Os valores são suficientes para
atender às necessidade de financiamento de Portugal, Irlanda e Espanha pelos próximos
dois anos.
• O ECB passou a comprar títulos soberanos no mercado secundário e ampliou algumas
operações de fornecimento de liquidez.
Contudo, o anúncio do pacote não foi suficiente para acalmar completamente os
mercados:
• Ainda persistem dúvidas sobre a implementação do European Stabilization Mechanism.
• Problemas de coordenação permanecem, como sinalizado pela decisão unilateral da
Alemanha de restringir short-selling.
• Dúvidas sobre a determinação do ECB em comprar a quantidade necessária de títulos.
• Aumento da preocupação com a saúde dos bancos de alguns países e sinais de falta de
funding em dólares no sistema financeiro europeu.
• Incertezas sobre regulação do sistema financeiro, inclusive nos Estados Unidos.
Macroeconomia Itaú Unibanco
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