Ensino Privado na China
Sergio Abramovich
Diretor Senior de Desenvolvimento de Operações Internacionais
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China
India
Southeast Asia
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Educação privada na China - evolução histórica
Período antigo
Período moderno
Período
contemporâneo
Até 1840
•  Influência do Confucionismo
•  Somente escolas mantidas pelo Governo
1840-1949
•  Início de ocidentalização
•  Primeiras escolas privadas (religiosas)
•  1926: cerca de 360 mil alunos em escolas privadas
1949-1978
•  Domínio de Mao Tse Tung
•  Todas as escolas privadas foram estatizadas
Depois de
1978
•  Início do “socialismo de mercado”
•  1982: nova constituição permitiu “outros setores” na
educação
•  1985, 1993: reformas da educação enfatizaram a
diversificação da oferta
•  1997: primeira legislação específica para escolas não
governamentais
•  2002: Lei da Promoção da Educação Privada – primeira
vez que aparece o termo “privada” de forma explícita
•  2008: Diretiva 2008 do MEC para escolas privadas
Fonte: Yan Fengqiao (Universidade de Pequim)
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China: visão geral do sistema
• 
O sistema atual consiste em seis anos de seis anos da escola primária, seguido de seis anos da escola secundária, e então de 2 a 4
anos de curso superior
Ensino Superior
National Key
University – Grade 1:
3-4 anos
General University
Provincial Key –
Grade 2/3:
3-4 anos
Private University –
Grade 2/3
3-4 anos
Diploma/Vocational
College
2-4 anos
(Idade 18+)
Mix of Gao Kao and NonGao Kao enrollment
Gao Kao (National Post-Secondary
Education Entrance Examination)
Senior Middle School
3 anos, Idade 15-17
Educação
secundária
(compulsória)
Vocational High School
3 anos, Idade 15-17
Zhong Kao
Exam
Junior Middle School
3 anos, Idade 12-14
Educação
primária
(compulsória)
Pré-escola
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Primary:
6 anos, Idade 6-11
Kindergarten
3 anos, Idade 3-5
Note: Enrollment figures include students enrolled in both private and public schools in China
Grades in Universities corresponds to entry requirements in Gao Kao grades, Foreign providers can partner with any valid public/private university or college
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Matrículas do Ensino Superior cresceram a 8% CAGR
desde 2005; Setor privado cresceu a 20%
Estudantes in MM
Matrículas totais no Ensino Superior, 1999-2009
30,00
CAGR
25,00
20%
Private Education
20,00
Public Education
6%
15,00
10,00
5,00
1999
GER % DDYYCODE_##
7 2001
8 10 2003
13 Source: China MoE, Parthenon interview with experts. Devry Internal analysis
Note: Data only includes student enrollment through the Gao Kao system.
15 2005
18 19 2007
21 22 2009
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Evolução da porcentagem de alunos matriculados no
ensino privado na China
Nível
1996
2008
Pré-escola
4,9%
39,7%
Ensino Fundamental
(1ª. a 5ª.)
0,3%
4,6%
Ensino Fundamental
(6ª. a 9ª.)
0,8%
7,6%
Ensino Médio
0,8%
11,6%
Ensino Superior
0,4%
19,9%
Fonte: Yan Fengqiao (Universidade de Pequim)
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Management, Engenharia e Medicina são os cursos com
maior crescimento
Enrollment by Top Subjects, 2005-2009
CAGR Incremental
('04-09) Students
30M
28M
27M
Other
Philosophy
History
25M
24M
Other
Philosophy
History
Agriculture
21M
Other
Philosophy
History
20
Agriculture
18M
Philosophy
Other
History
Agriculture
Law
Education
Science
Medicine
Law
Education
Science
Medicine
Management
& Economics
Engineering
0
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2004
Education
Science
Agriculture
Law
Education
Science
Management
& Economics
Agriculture
Law
Education
Science
Medicine
Medicine
Medicine
Literature
Education
Science
0.1M
0.0M
0.4M
0.1M
Medicine
9%
0.9M
Literature
7%
1.1M
Management
& Economics
11%
3.1M
12%
4.2M
Law
Literature
Literature
Literature
Literature
10
Law
Other
Philosophy
History
6%
1%
7%
1%
Other
Philosophy
History
Agriculture
Management
& Economics
Management
& Economics
Management
& Economics
Engineering
Engineering
Engineering
Engineering
Engineering
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: China MoE
Note: “Literature” Category includes Chinese language and English language, does not include web enrollment
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Crescimento de ~5,5M de vagas em 2020 para suportar o
crescimento econômico
Previsão do crescimento das matrículas do Ensino Superior 2004 – 2020F
CAGR CAGR
(05-10E) (10-15F)
40M
3.2M
34.0M
2.2M
30
7.7M
28.6M
21.0M
20
6.4%
1.5%
10
0
2005
Incremental
Enrolment
2010E
Incremental
Enrolment
(2010-2015)
Incremental
Enrolment
(2015-2020)
2020F
Population 18-22
99.8M
110.9M
85.6M
82.5M
Gross Enrolment
Ratio
21.0%
25.8%
36.0%
41.2%
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Source: China MoE, Euro Monitor, Parthenon, Interview with experts, Parthenon Model. DV analysis
Note: Data only includes student enrollment through the Gao Kao system. Chinese government target is 40% for Enrollment Ratio by 2020.
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Visão geral das tendências demográficas
82.5M
(05-09) (10-15) (15-20F)
83.5M
84.0M
84.5M
85.0M
85.6M
90.1M
Declining Population of
18-22 year olds
94.9M
105.3M
110.9M
116.8M
115.8M
110.0M
CAGR
100.0M
100
99.8M
125M
107.9M
Target Population (Age 18-22 years), China, 2004-2020 *
Target Population
75
50
25
0
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4.0%
-6.3%
-0.4%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Note: * Target Population assumed to be 18-22 years of age. Exchange rate from 5/1/2011 One Child Policy in China was made into effect in 1982.
Source: Euromonitor, Ministry of Education, National Bureau of Statistics
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Taxa de escolaridade superior bruta
Em 1999, a taxa chinesa era 50% da brasileira. Em
2008, passou para 68%
40%
35%
China
Brasil
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Fonte: UNESCO
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Principais desafios do ensino privado na
China*
•  Qualidade: falta de um esquema bem desenvolvido nacional de
acreditação e controle da qualidade. Falta de criatividade e ensino prático.
Empregabilidade dos formados
•  Gargalos: falta de flexibilidade no ensino privado resta mobilidade ao
sistema
•  Proposta de valor: o setor privado criando soluções especificas
•  Consistência nas politicas: as regras não são as mesmas para o ensino
público e privado criando distorções
•  Aceso: famílias de baixa renda não têm mecanismos de acesso ao ensino
secundário de qualidade o que resta possibilidades de entrada nas
universidades de elite. Também não tem possibilidades de pagar ensino
privado de qualidade
•  Disparidade geográfica. Foco nas cidades da costa com alta taxas de
crescimento econômico
* De acordo com Yan Fengqiao (Universidade de Pequim) e analise DeVry
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Lições aprendidas
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Positivas
Negativas
•  Capacidade baseada no
crescimento econômico
•  Plano estratégico para
desenvolver um grupo de elite,
C9 group
•  Benchmark international. Alta
competitividade e elevação dos
padrões de qualidade
•  Disponibilidade de fundos –
orçamentos realistas
•  Consistência no longo prazo
•  Crescimento do programas de
de estudo no exterior e
internacionais na China
•  Extrema segmentação –
disparidade – ausência de
flexibilidade
•  Falta de articulação entre
escolas públicas e privadas
•  Baixa qualidade no “meio”
•  Falta de processos claros
para cotas, crescimento e
controle de qualidade
•  Setor privado não tem papel
próprio – fica em segundo
nível. Foca em crescimento
futuro mas sem papel claro
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China
India
Southeast Asia
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General overview Indian education sector
Growth of Middle Class in India
Figures in mm
1000%
increase
• To contribute 59% of
aggregate
consumption by 2025
• High propensity to
spend on education
among Indians
2000-2008
Growth in Indian students studying overseas
R,
CAG
150,194
%
24.5
Rising Enrolment in higher education in India
(in million)
159,779
109,577
94,446
8
66,475
14
11
12
2006
2008
16e
19e
22e
53,417
2001
1999-00
• 
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2004-05
2005-06
2009
2010
2012
2014
GER: 11%-----------------à20%
Out of approx. 160,000 students that study abroad in
2009: 90K went to USA and spent an average of $45K
per year/student
Source: Avendus Research Report, Factiva, E&Y estimates
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Growth of at 8% CAGR in the last anos. It should add another
7.7M Seats by 2014 to sustain economic growth
Enrollment Forecast for Higher Education, 2002–14
CAGR CAGR
02-08 08-14F
30M
Number of Students
7.7M
21.5M
20
5.0M
10
13.8M
8%
8.8M
8%
Higher
Education
Enrollment
0
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2002
Incremental
Enrollment
2008E
Incremental
Enrollment
2014F
GDP/Capita
(US$ PPP Adjusted)
$1.7K
$3.0K
$4.9K
Gross Enrolment Ratio
10.0%
14.3%
20.0%
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Structure of the Higher Education Market in India
Other Institutions
Institutions of Higher Education
Central/State Owned Universities
Gov’t
Universities/
Colleges
Vocational
Training Institutes
Private Universities
Private
Colleges
Private
Deemed Universities
Private State Act
Universities
Gov’t
Private
Enrollment Size
• 
2K-3K
• 
2K-3K
• 
Up to 6K
• 
Up to 40K
• 
1K-1.5K
• 
1K-1.5K
Price Range
Per Year ($)
• 
300 – 1,200
• 
300 – 1,200
• 
2,000–4,000
• 
2,000–4,000
• 
10-60
(per course)
• 
100–600
(per course)
Number of
Institutions
• 
>5,000
• 
~12,000
• 
130
• 
73
• 
N/A
• 
N/A
Regulating
Authority
• 
Multiple federal and state
bodies, e.g. AICTE, State
Education Department
• 
UGC overview and
compliance
• 
UGC overview only
• 
No
regulations
• 
No
regulations
Key Areas of
Regulation
• 
Oversight on pricing, enrollment
and recruitment
• 
Pricing subject to UGC
approval
• 
Self-regulated
• 
Selfregulated
• 
Selfregulated
Option for Foreign
Participant
• 
No
•  Yes (Joint
program with
local partners)
• 
Yes (Joint program with
a local partner)
• 
Yes (Joint program with
a local partner)
• 
No
• 
Yes
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Source: Regulatory manuals and websites
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Indian Higher Education Is a Highly Regulated Market;
“For-profit Institutions” are not allowed although they exist
Segment
Are private universities
allowed?
Regulation
•  Yes
Commentary
•  Private universities can be either :
-  Private Deemed (status granted by UGC)
-  Private State Act (status granted by the State Government)
Is accreditation lengthy?
•  Yes, at least ~1 year
Which are the local government •  University Grants Commission
bodies involved?
•  All India Council for Technical
Education (AICTE), MCI, etc.
•  State Governments
•  There is no set time period that it takes to become accredited. Depending on
the form of accreditation taken, timelines can vary: 1 year for AICTE, 2-3
anos for Private State Act, >3 anos for Deemed status
•  Universities are under the umbrella of UGC
•  Private technical colleges (engineering and management) are under AICTE
•  Medical colleges are under MCI (Medical Council of India)
•  Liberal arts colleges are affiliated to universities
Can institutions be for-profit?
•  No, current policies forbid profit
making
•  Though profits are not allowed in higher education. Profit making exists by
setting up trust/management company structure
Are there limits to tuition fees?
•  Depends on the type of institution:
yes at AICTE colleges; no at deemed
and state universities
•  States regulate the fee levels at AICTE colleges
•  Yes, at AICTE colleges
•  AICTE regulates “capacity intakes” by course type and institutions have to
apply to increase their capacity
Is capacity regulated?
•  No at deemed and state universities
•  Private universities are free to set their own fees
•  Private universities are free to set their own capacity
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Private Higher Education Enrollment Accounts for ~40% of
the Market and Is Growing the Fastest
Medicine
Commerce
80
Medicine
Commerce
Sciences
Engineering
Humanities
Commerce
Humanities
Higher Education - Private Institutes
Govt.
Distance
40
20
0
Higher Education - Govt. Institutes
Average Fee
Total Revenue
5 Year Growth Rate
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IT Training
Sciences
60
1.0M
3.1M
Financial Services
Industrial &
Manufacturing
Retail
IT Training
English Training
Vocational
Training
~$50
~$850
~$160 ~$250
~$370
$247M
$5,597M
$132M $253M
$1,129M
1%
15%
Source: MHRD; UNESCO; Parthenon interviews; company websites
Total = 16.9M
Other
Airlines
Others
Engineering
Commerce
Others
IT Training
6.6M
Others
Private
Distance
5.4M
Others
100%
0.8M
Education Market Enrollment in India, 2008
1%
15%
13%
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Lesson learned
Do
Don’t’s
•  Development of high quality
elite institutions
•  Push for studying abroad
programs
•  No clear rules for accreditation
and quality control
•  Lack of flexibility in the private
sector
•  No incentive for innovation
•  Lack of of innovative
pedagogical approach
•  Lower quality in the middle tier
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Agenda
India
China
Southeast Asia
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General overview South East Asia
Total Post-Secondary Enrollment,
2009
4
4.7M
Practical
Higher
Education
5M
3
2.4M
Higher Education
2
2.7M
1.8M
0.9M
1
0.2M
0
Post-Secondary
Enrollment Rate
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Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
Malaysia
Singapore
22%
29%
44%
~10%
30%
34%
Note: * Higher Education includes ISCED Level 5A and 6 while Practical Higher Education includes ISCED Level 5B.. Singapore’s GER is from 2002
Source: UNESCO, World Bank, Primary Research (n=200)
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Post-Secondary Enrollment in Southeast Asia has
Experienced Steady Growth Over the Past 10 anos
Total Enrollment, Post-Secondary, 1999-2009
4.0M
Gross Enrollment Ratio, Post-Secondary, 1999-2009
50%
Indonesia
Thailand
40
3.0
Singapore
Philippines
Malaysia
Thailand
30
Vietnam
20
Philippines
2.0
Indonesia
1.0
Malaysia
10
Vietnam
Singapore
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Source: World Bank
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
1999
0.0
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Malaysia and Singapore Are Aiming to Attract Foreign
Universities and Students
Attracting Quality Foreign Universities
•  “The Malaysian Government launched the National Higher
Education Strategic Plan in August 2007 with the objective of
making the country an international center of excellence in
education and getting reputed foreign universities to
Malaysia is an important part of this plan”
Attracting International Students
•  “Singapore and Malaysia are aggressively attracting
thousands of international students. While Malaysia aims for
80,000 international university students, Singapore hopes to
attract 150,000 by 2015, up from 97,000 in 2008”
–  Professor, Asian Institute of Technology
–  Officer, Ministry of Higher Education
•  “Singapore is actively trying to attract leading international
universities to set up campuses here. Currently, MIT, John
Hopkins, INSEAD and University of Chicago have already
set up campuses in Singapore to attract not only domestic
students but also international students from the region”
–  Economic Development Board
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Source: Regulatory manuals and websites, SEAMEO Regional Centre for Higher Education and Development, primary research interviews
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Muito obrigado !
Sergio Abramovich
[email protected]
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