Natal 2015 Um otimismo contido Consumer Business Novembro 2015 Contents 1 2 3 Prefácio Sumário 4 5 1 Inside consumer mindset 6 2 2015 Christmas budget 7 3 Most desired and most popular holiday gifts 8 4 Purchasing strategies 5 The Omni-channel Consumer 6 Physical stores 7 Assessments of retailers 8 Survey methodology Contactos 2 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey Prefácio 1 2 É com grande entusiasmo que a Deloitte publica e dá a conhecer a 18ª edição do estudo sobre as tendências de consumo para o Natal. Esta edição do estudo abrange 14 países. O estudo foi desenvolvido com base numa amostra representativa de consumidores europeus, num total de 14.065 inquiridos, dos quais 761 portugueses. No presente ano, à data em que publicamos o estudo, vivemos um cenário de incerteza. Pela sua relevância, sublinhamos, desde já, que as conclusões do estudo têm de ser contextualizadas no período de tempo em que o trabalho de campo foi realizado, o qual decorreu entre os dias 28 de Setembro e 5 de Outubro. Deste modo e em consequência dos recentes desenvolvimentos políticos poderá eventualmente ser alterado o sentido de algumas das conclusões. Tendo em consideração a informação disponível à data do trabalho de campo, e comparando com os resultados das últimas edições, constatamos existir uma enorme consistência por parte dos inquiridos na avaliação do contexto passado, presente e expetativas futuras. 3 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey A recorrência do presente estudo e a sua representatividade paneuropeia permite conhecer a evolução das tendências dos hábitos e atitudes de consumo a nível europeu e, em particular, em Portugal. Importa realçar que a relevância do estudo não se esgota no tema do consumo na quadra festiva, já que o estudo de Natal permite igualmente a formulação de hipóteses representativas, quer a nível dos hábitos e atitudes dos consumidores na sua relação com a evolução digital, quer a nível da forma como o contexto económico afeta o comportamento das famílias. Estamos convictos de que o estudo pode constituir uma ferramenta relevante no apoio à decisão por parte das equipas de gestão, empresários, etc., contribuindo para que as estratégias empresariais estejam cada vez mais centradas nas necessidades dos consumidores e, consequentemente, para fortalecer a sustentabilidade dos seus modelos de negócio. Em traços gerais, na sequência dos resultados obtidos no ano anterior, confirma-se que os consumidores ajustaram o seu padrão de consumo, mostrando realismo face à evolução do contexto económico do país. Notámos que existe a expetativa de que maiores dificuldades e desafios estarão ultrapassados e, por isso, o futuro é encarado de uma forma significativamente mais otimista. 3 4 5 6 7 8 Prefácio 1 2 O ano de 2015 foi o primeiro ano completo após o final do programa formal de assistência liderado pela Troika. O duro programa de ajustamento a que a sociedade portuguesa foi sujeita parece ter alterado de forma estrutural alguns dos hábitos e atitudes de consumo e também o próprio modelo de desenvolvimento da economia. A este respeito, o modelo privilegiado tem sido o do crescimento via exportações de forma a compensar o menor investimento público e a tímida evolução do consumo interno. Segundo o boletim económico do Banco de Portugal (BdP), de outubro de 2015, estima-se este ano um crescimento do PIB de 1,7% em Portugal e que seja possível atingir o desafio de 3% do défice. Este cenário permitiria a Portugal sair do grupo de países sob vigilância apertada no contexto de procedimento de défice excessivo. Em todo o caso, é realçado no boletim do BdP que, para atingir os objetivos propostos, “é crucial manter um quadro institucional previsível e promotor da estabilidade macroeconómica”. Em qualquer cenário, persistem diversos desafios estruturais para a economia portuguesa. 4 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey O presente ano foi acompanhado de um conjunto de eventos relevantes e com impacto direto na evolução da economia, tais como a significativa queda do preço do barril de petróleo, a evolução negativa das economias de Angola e Brasil, a crescente complexidade política da Europa, a qual ficou bem patente, entre outras questões, na gestão da crise na Grécia, que já vai no terceiro resgate, e na recente crise dos refugiados. Em todo o caso, numa tendência de continuada melhoria, os europeus sentem mais confiança na economia do que em 2014. Em Portugal, a evolução da tendência de melhoria do sentimento face à economia é mais acentuada do que a média europeia. Quanto às expetativas para 2016, estas melhoram para a média dos europeus. Portugal tem a expetativa de melhoria mais significativa em toda a Europa. Esta tendência é corroborada pela evolução do índice de confiança dos consumidores, medido pelo Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE), cujo valor, em Setembro, atingiu o máximo de 14 anos, o nível mais elevado desde Junho de 2001. Porém os resultados divulgados em outubro já demonstraram uma queda do índice de confiança, invertendo a tendência de crescimento desde o início de 2013. Na Europa e, em Portugal, mantém-se a perceção de diminuição do poder de compra, muito embora se note uma inversão da tendência. Refletindo o sentimento geral europeu mais positivo, este ano a expetativa é a de que os gastos se mantenham face a 2014, ao contrário do sucedido em 2014 face a 2013, em que havia a expetativa de redução do orçamento em 3%. Os países com evolução mais negativa são a Grécia (-8,6%) e a Rússia (-7%); por outro lado o país com expetativa de evolução mais positiva é a Dinamarca (+5,2%). Os portugueses, à semelhança do ano passado, num contexto de perceção de perda de poder de compra, mas de significativa melhoria de expetativas para a economia em 2016, demonstram prudência na alocação do seu orçamento durante a quadra natalícia. Em 2015 e em Portugal, está previsto um gasto total de 315€ (-5,6%) por lar, repartido da seguinte forma: 143€ em presentes (-11,5%); 118€ em alimentação e bebidas (4,8%) e 54€ em socialização (-8,9%). 3 4 5 6 7 8 Prefácio 1 2 De realçar que as expetativas de orçamento para a quadra natalícia têm vindo a diminuir em Portugal, desde 2008. No entanto, em 2014, o orçamento real de gasto inverteu a trajetória de queda, tendo-se verificado um aumento real face ao ano de 2013, acompanhando a evolução positiva das expetativas relativamente ao futuro. Em 2015, é possível que a tendência se mantenha, ou seja, apesar das expetativas de orçamento conservador, é provável que se concretize um aumento real dos gastos face ao ano anterior, uma vez que as perspetivas futuras são mais risonhas, tal como se verificou no período homólogo em 2014. Em qualquer cenário, surge a evidência de um novo padrão de gasto na quadra natalícia, passando dos 600€, do período préajustamento, para um novo padrão, cujo valor total varia entre os 300€ e 400€. Relativamente ao processo de compra, as tendências dos últimos anos mantêm-se, designadamente a crescente influência do digital no processo de compra, o foco dos consumidores no preço e promoções, assim como a gestão criteriosa do orçamento do lar por parte das famílias portuguesas. 5 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey Também se confirma que a estratégia de compra omnicanal é uma realidade generalizada no processo de compra dos consumidores e, em Portugal, cresce simultaneamente de forma significativa a utilização, para o efeito, do mobile. Em Portugal, destacam-se igualmente os 61% de consumidores que afirmam ter a intenção de utilizar no futuro smartphones no processo de compra, o registo mais elevado em toda a Europa. A economia digital é, sem dúvida, uma janela de oportunidade para um país em que recorrentemente se discute a (des)vantagem competitiva do seu posicionamento geográfico e demográfico. Em suma e abstraindo-nos do presente momento de incerteza política, que implica um elevado grau de complexidade na elaboração de orçamentos e decisões de investimento, os desafios estruturais que destacamos para as empresas são, entre outros: como capitalizar em oportunidades de negócio a evolução do digital e, em particular, os temas do mobile e da estratégia omnicanal; a eficiente gestão das variáveis preço e promoções, em particular, no atual ambiente de proliferação de dados e soluções de customer analytics; e, claro, a internacionalização, com todas as suas exigências, como a priorização na alocação de recursos, route-to-market etc. A economia digital é, sem dúvida, uma janela de oportunidade para um país em que recorrentemente se discute a (des)vantagem competitiva do seu posicionamento geográfico e demográfico. 3 4 5 6 7 8 Prefácio 1 2 3 Por fim, desejamos naturalmente que a melhoria de expetativas por parte dos portugueses se concretize num crescimento sustentável para o país com impacto no bem-estar e qualidade de vida de todos os portugueses. 4 5 6 Votos de um Feliz Natal e de um Próspero Ano Novo. 7 8 Luís Belo Partner - Consumer Business Deloitte 6 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey Nuno Netto Associate Partner - Consumer Business Deloitte Sumário 1 2 Numa tendência de melhoria, em geral, os Europeus sentem mais confiança na economia do que em 2014 Neste ano, 37% dos europeus acredita que o atual estado da economia é negativo, em comparação com os 48% e os 55%, de 2014 e 2013, respetivamente. A tendência de melhoria mantém-se face aos anos de 2008-2014, regressando aos níveis de 2006-2007, quando precisamente 37% dos europeus classificava a situação da economia como negativa. Em Portugal, a tendência de melhoria do sentimento face à situação económica do país é mais acentuada do que na Europa. Em 2015, 55% dos portugueses avaliam como negativa a situação do país, face aos 72% em 2014, ou os 83% em 2013, mas ainda aquém dos 45% registados em 2009. Em 2015, 16% dos portugueses já classificam como positiva a situação económica por comparação com os apenas 7% que assim a qualificavam em 2014. Em 2015, os países europeus que manifestam um sentimento mais negativo são a Grécia, a Rússia e a França. Quanto às expetativas para 2016, estas melhoram para a média dos europeus. O saldo líquido entre expetativas positivas e negativas, relativamente ao ano de 2016, é de - 5%, face aos -19% registados em 2014, relativamente ao ano de 2015. 7 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey Portugal revela a melhoria mais significativa de expetativas para o ano 2016 em toda a Europa. Com efeito, o referido saldo negativo melhora significativamente dos 25% negativos em 2014, face às expetativas para 2015, para os 3% negativos, face às expetativas para o ano de 2016. De realçar que, relativamente ao próximo ano, Grécia, França e Bélgica lideram as expetativas negativas, com saldos líquidos negativos de 54%, 31% e 25% respetivamente. Os países com expetativas positivas são o Reino Unido, Dinamarca, Espanha, Holanda e Eslovénia. De realçar que a Alemanha, considerada como o motor da Europa, tal como em 2014, tem um saldo líquido negativo relativamente às expetativas para o ano de 2016. Os europeus mantêm a perceção de diminuição do seu poder de compra, muito embora se note uma inversão de tendência A tendência dos últimos anos mantém-se, com os europeus a percecionarem uma diminuição do poder de compra. No entanto, a diferença entre as respostas positivas e negativas diminui dos - 30%, em 2014, para os -22%, em 2015. Os países com a maior diferença entre respostas positivas e negativas são a Grécia (-66%), Rússia (-46%) e Itália (-36%). 3 4 5 6 7 8 Sumário 1 2 Em Portugal, em 2015, a diferença entre as repostas positivas e negativas é de - 32%, face aos - 49% de 2014. Em 2015, em Portugal, 44% dos inquiridos afirma ter perdido poder de compra, comparativamente com os 59% de 2014. Começam a inverter-se na Europa as expetativas futuras de evolução negativa do poder de compra Em Portugal, 20% dos inquiridos espera diminuir o seu poder de compra no próximo ano, comparativamente com os 25% registados no ano passado.. O saldo líquido entre respostas negativas e positivas, melhora significativamente para os 5% positivos, face a -3% registados no ano de 2014, ou os -44%, no ano de 2013. Os países com melhor evolução de expetativas são Portugal (maior evolução na Europa), Espanha e Itália. Por seu turno, na Bélgica e França deterioraram-se as expetativas de rendimento disponível para o próximo ano. França, Grécia e Bélgica são os países com o índice mais negativo da amostra. Os países com índice positivo são o Reino Unido, Portugal, Espanha, Dinamarca, Polónia e Eslovénia. 8 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey Os impostos mantêm a liderança como principal categoria a absorver o orçamento dos europeus A pressão fiscal mantém-se com 35% dos europeus a afirmar que gastou uma maior percentagem do seu rendimento em impostos, face aos 38% de 2014. Tal como em 2014, os bens essenciais, como alimentação, energia e saúde, perfazem o pódio das categorias que mais absorvem o orçamento dos europeus. Em Portugal, a carga fiscal é a categoria que mais cresce, com 37% dos portugueses a afirmar que gastou mais do seu orçamento em impostos, verificando-se, no entanto, uma diminuição face aos 44% registados em 2014. O nível de resiliência dos portugueses mantém-se apesar das atitudes diferenciadas face à natureza das diferentes categorias de produto e serviços Uma vez mais, a predisposição dos portugueses para reduzirem mais nos seus gastos, caso seja necessário, é superior à média dos europeus, nas despesas irregulares, entretenimento, vestuário e férias. No entanto, é interessante verificar que nas categorias de educação, bens essenciais, habitação e saúde, os portugueses, à semelhança do verificado no ano de 2014, resultado do forte reajustamento concretizado nos últimos anos, já demonstram uma maior resistência para cortar a despesa nestas categorias, face aos congéneres europeus. O orçamento dos europeus para a época natalícia manteve-se relativamente ao ano de 2013 Ao contrário de 2014, em que havia a expetativa de redução de 3% nos gastos na quadra natalícia, neste ano a expetativa é de que os gastos se mantenham face ao ano anterior. Os países nos quais a variação em relação ao ano passado vai ser mais negativa são a Grécia (-8,6%) e a Rússia (-7%). Neste ano, seis países assinalam uma expetativa de evolução neutra ou positiva nos gastos, a saber: Dinamarca (+5,2%); Holanda (+1,5%); Alemanha (+0,9%); Reino Unido (+0,7%); França (+0,2%) e Espanha (+0,2%). Os portugueses, à semelhança do ano passado, num contexto de perceção de perda de poder de compra, mas de significativa melhoria de expetativas para a economia em 2016, demonstram elevada prudência na alocação do seu orçamento durante a quadra natalícia Em 2015, está previsto um gasto total de 315€ (-5,6%) por lar, repartido da seguinte forma: 143€ em presentes (-11,5%); 118€ em alimentação e bebidas (4,8%) e 54€ em socialização (-8,9%). 3 4 5 6 7 8 Sumário 1 2 De realçar que as expetativas de orçamento para a quadra natalícia têm vindo a diminuir em Portugal, desde 2008. No entanto, em 2014, o orçamento real de gasto inverteu a trajetória de queda tendo-se verificado um aumento real face ao ano de 2013. Em todo o caso, existe um novo padrão de gastos na quadra natalícia, passando dos 600€, do período pré-ajustamento, para um novo padrão, cujo valor varia entre os 300€ e 400€. Ao analisar o histórico da comparação entre as expetativas de orçamento e o gasto real, concluímos que existem três padrões por parte dos consumidores, a saber: • Pré 2009: expetativas orçamentais conservadoras, em que o valor previamente orçamentado para a quadra natalícia foi sempre significativamente ultrapassado pelo gasto real; • 2009-2011: fase de expetativas realistas, em que existe quase uma equivalência perfeita entre o orçamento e o gasto real; • 2012-2013: expetativas orçamentais demasiado otimistas, em que o gasto real ficou aquém do orçamentado; • Finalmente, desde o ano 2014, assistimos de novo a uma fase de expetativas iniciais conservadoras, em que o gasto real é superior ao valor previamente orçamentado para a quadra natalícia. 9 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey À semelhança do ano 2014, o receio da deterioração da economia é o principal motivo para os europeus diminuírem os seus gastos no Natal, já para os portugueses o principal motivo é terem diminuído o rendimento líquido Para os portugueses, além da redução do rendimento líquido de impostos, que em todo o caso diminuiu dos 63%, em 2014, para 49%, em 2015, o receio face ao futuro da economia é o segundo motivo para diminuir o orçamento de Natal. Tal como em 2014, os portugueses que têm a expetativa de aumentar o seu orçamento de Natal, referem as promoções, com 41% de respostas, como o principal incentivo para o fazerem. Na Europa, o principal motivo para aumentar os gastos no Natal, para 39% dos inquiridos, é o desejo de evitar pensar na crise e retirar partido da quadra natalícia. 3 4 5 6 7 8 Seguindo a tendência iniciada em 2011, os europeus e, em particular, os portugueses demonstram maior cuidado e foco na gestão do seu processo de compra, priorizando os seus orçamentos de acordo com o nível promocional, investindo mais na preparação de um orçamento, comprando menos por impulso e, claro, tomando quase sempre em consideração a variável preço. 10 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Sumário 1 2 Existe, em média, na Europa um aumento da discrepância entre as intenções de compra e as expetativas de presentes Ao contrário do ano 2014, em que existiu um alinhamento razoável entre as intenções de compra e as expetativas de presentes, neste ano, em apenas 3 dos 14 países da amostra existe um alinhamento de expetativas. O principal motivo deste desalinhamento reside no facto de um número significativo de europeus ter passado a ter como principal expetativa de presente dinheiro, ao invés de livros, resultando num desalinhamento com as intenções de compra, maioritariamente entre livros e chocolates. Com efeito, em nenhum dos países da amostra o dinheiro surge como a primeira opção para oferta. O número de portugueses que têm o dinheiro como principal expetativa de presente aumenta marginalmente, dos 56% para os 57%, mantendo o primeiro lugar, acima dos 53% que tem como expetativa receber livros como presente. No entanto, apenas 16% dos portugueses, ligeiramente acima dos 13% de 2014, tem a intenção de oferecer dinheiro no Natal. De realçar que, tal como nos anos anteriores, existem significativas diferenças no top 10 de preferências, entre os homens e mulheres, com os homens a privilegiarem a tecnologia (smartphones, laptops e tablets), enquanto as mulheres optam por produtos relacionados 11 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey com a moda (calçado, cosméticos e joalharia). De notar igualmente que, nos grupos etários mais elevados, os livros e viagens lideram as preferências. dos portugueses a afirmarem que utilizam mais o research online para procurar melhores preços ou 30% que utilizam para procurar opiniões e sugestões. 3 4 5 O fenómeno do smart shopping mantém-se na Europa e, em particular, em Portugal, embora neste ano a tendência de crescimento da importância da variável preço e resistência às compras por impulso no processo de decisão de compra seja interrompida Seguindo a tendência iniciada em 2011, os europeus e, em particular, os portugueses demonstram maior cuidado e foco na gestão do seu processo de compra, priorizando os seus orçamentos de acordo com o nível promocional, investindo mais na preparação de um orçamento, comprando menos por impulso e, claro, tomando quase sempre em consideração a variável preço. De notar que, apesar do fator preço se manter, de uma forma destacada, como a variável crítica no processo de decisão de compra dos consumidores, com 51% dos portugueses a afirmar que vão tomar em consideração o preço na decisão de compra, este valor diminuiu face aos 75% de 2014. Também diminuiu o número de portugueses que afirma não vir a realizar compras por impulso, passando dos 79%, em 2014, para os 64%, em 2015. Importa sublinhar a confirmação da importância crescente que o canal digital tem no processo de pesquisa e análise de alternativas, com 41% Mantém-se a tendência da diminuição dos consumidores recorrerem a empréstimos familiares, crédito ao consumo especializado ou disponibilizado pelos retalhistas. A estratégia de compra omnicanal é uma realidade generalizada no processo de compra dos consumidores e, em Portugal, acentua-se simultaneamente de forma significativa a relevância do mobile Na Europa as compras online têm aumentado consistentemente, ano após ano, com as transações online a pesarem já 37% dos gastos totais. O Reino Unido, Alemanha e Polónia são os campeões dos gastos online. Em Portugal, destaca-se a expetativa futura da utilização dos smartphones no processo de compra. Enquanto atualmente 35% dos portugueses afirma já ter utilizado um smartphone num processo de compra, ainda abaixo dos 41% da média da Europa, relativamente à intenção de utilização futura, 61% afirma que irá utilizar no futuro um smartphone no processo de compra, sendo o maior registo na Europa, muito acima da média europeia de 47%. 6 7 8 Sumário 1 2 Cumpre igualmente registar a importância das redes sociais em Portugal, muito acima da média europeia, nas fases de pesquisa e comparação de alternativas. Também relevante nestas fases do processo de decisão de compra é a maior importância relativa do online face aos meios mais tradicionais, como a TV ou revistas, tanto na Europa, como em Portugal. Quanto à concretização das compras, as lojas físicas ainda assumem a liderança destacada, em particular na categoria de bebidas & alimentação. Não obstante, na Europa o canal online tem ganho penetração de uma forma consistente. Os mais de 10% dos europeus e portugueses que utilizam em diversas categorias a possibilidade de encomendar online na própria loja comprovam a relevância da adoção de verdadeiras estratégias omnicanal por parte dos retalhistas. O papel estratégico dos canais revela ser cada vez mais interdependente, com apenas 28% dos portugueses e 25% dos europeus a afirmarem que nunca utilizaram a loja como showroom para posteriormente concretizaram a compra no canal online. Ao invés, 30% dos inquiridos, em Portugal, e 24%, na Europa, afirmam que o fazem com frequência ou sempre. 12 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey Em Portugal, os centros comerciais continuam a ser o canal privilegiado para as compras dos presentes de Natal; no entanto, o retalho especializado continua a conquistar gradualmente terreno e os hipermercados/supermercados mantêm um forte peso, em particular, nas categorias de alimentação & bebidas Os centros comerciais, com 44% de penetração, o retalho especializado, com 23% e os hipermercados/supermercados, com 21%, mantêm-se como os canais de compra privilegiados para a quadra natalícia. O peso relativo dos canais está relacionado com as categorias em questão. Por exemplo, para a categoria de desporto, o retalho especializado é a primeira opção, enquanto a nível alimentar os hipermercados/supermercados mantêm a liderança destacada, sendo que, nas restantes categorias, os centros comerciais assinalam o maior nível de penetração. Totalmente consistente com o registo de 2014, para o futuro, as principais áreas de investimento sugeridas pelos consumidores aos retalhistas são a competitividade no preço, desenvolvimento de estratégias de customer relationship e uma melhor integração dos canais online e offline. 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 Inside the consumer mindset 13 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 3 4 5 6 7 8 How do you rate the current state of the economy? 1 2 3 Europeans feel globally more confident than last year, with a global upward trend except for Greece, Russia and South Africa. 4 5 • As last year, Northern European countries are more positive about the current state of the economy. UK, Germany and Denmark, as in 2014, show a positive index; in 2015, The Netherlands and Slovenia joined these group of countries. 6 7 8 • France, Greece, Russia and South Africa are the most negative countries, but French consumers are on an upward trend. • Portugal still shows a negative sentiment, however, the country is less pessimistic than previous year. Index between positive and negative answers < -40% -40% to 0% An upward trend 14 A downward trend Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey ≥ 0% How do you rate the current state of the economy? 1 2 Portuguese morale is still low, but continues to recover for the 4th consecutive year. Portugal 3 Gender 4 16% Positive • In 2015, 55% of Portuguese are negative about the economic situation although there is a significant improvement versus 72% from last year, 77% in 2013, 83% in 2012 and 88% in 2011 (lowest level). • In 2015, there are 16% of Portuguese claiming the situation is positive compared to only 7% in 2014. • As in 2014, the less pessimistic are the youngest (18-34 years) and men. 5 27% Neutral 55% Negative 2% 6 7 20% 33% 46% 1% 12% 21% 64% 3% I don’t know Age 18-24 55-64 35-44 25-34 17% 35% 45% 4% 15 Positive Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 8 45-54 19% 22% 56% 3% 17% 34% 45% 4% Neutral Negative I don’t know 13% 24% 62% 0% 13% 22% 64% 1% How do you rate the expected state of the economy? 1 2 3 In Europe, consumers are divided about the future, as we find both negative and positive opinions but overall an upward trend is emerging. 4 5 • Most of the countries still have a negative opinion, but more countries have a positive index compared to last year: Spain, The Netherlands and Slovenia are joining the UK and Denmark as the most optimistic. 6 7 8 • Only Greece has a significant negative index this year, depicting a very negative vision of the future economy. • Portugal shows a significant upward trend compared to 2014, with an almost positive index. Index between positive and negative answers < -40% -40% to 0% An upward trend 16 A downward trend Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey ≥ 0% How do you rate the current and expected state of the economy? 1 2 Even though the current opinion stays mainly negative, Europeans have a better opinion of future expected state of the economy compared to current situation. 3 Index based on the sum of positive and negative answers 4 • Germany stands out, as for the last two years, Germans expect the future to be worse than the present, although they rate positively the current state of the economy. 5 Europe -19% -5% 6 7 • Portuguese expectations for the future improved significantly from -25% in 2014 to only -3% in 2015, better than European average. • Greece - The opinion about the economy has been slightly improving since 2012, but dropped again in 2015. Greeks have consistently the most negative opinion of the current and expected state of the economy over all countries surveyed. 42% 7% 14% 14% -3% -31% -46% 12% -4% -4% 10% 19% 16% -11% -26% -25% -28% 8 28% 27% -27% -14% -18% -22% -39% -48% -54% -54% -80% UK France Portugal Spain Italy Greece Germany Belgium The Denmark Netherlands Poland Russia Current state (2015) 17 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey Slovenia South Africa Expected state (2016) How do you rate the current and expected state of the economy? 1 2 All in all, both European and Portuguese consumers are confirming an upward expectations trend in 2015. After a drop in concern about the economy in 2011, the global European opinion on the economy has been improving for 4 consecutive years, even though it stays negative. • Moreover, for the fifth consecutive year, the consumers’ perception of the current state of the economy is relatively close to their perception of the future state of the economy. European consumers, as well as Portuguese, keep more positive about their future than about the present state of the economy, in any case remain quite cautious about the future. • Portuguese confirm the expectations upward trend started as from year 2012, in particular about future expectations. In 2015, for the 1st time since 2009, future expectations are more positive than European average. Portugal 3 -40% 4 20% 0% 5 -20% 6 -40% -60% -80% Current state -100% Expected state 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Europe -40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Current state -100% Expected state 2009 18 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 7 8 How do you rate the expected state of the economy? 1 2 31% of Portuguese believe next year the situation will be positive compared to only 20% in 2014. Portugal 3 Gender 4 31% Positive 5 • Still 34% of Portuguese believe next year’s situation will be negative, however significantly lower than the 45% in 2014 and 59% in 2013. 21% Neutral • As in 2014, youngest and men are the less pessimistic about the future state of the economy. 34% Negative 6 7 25% 20% 37% 17% 37% 23% 31% 9% 8 13% I don’t know Age 18-24 55-64 35-44 25-34 37% 28% 25% 10% 19 Positive Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 45-54 34% 17% 33% 16% 35% 21% 33% 11% Neutral Negative I don’t know 31% 18% 38% 14% 21% 25% 42% 13% How would you describe your spending power today compared to last year? 4 5 • As last year, only British consumers think their spending power is better than in 2014. 6 • However only Greece, Germany and Russia show a downward trend, while last year this trend was predominant in Europe. 7 • Portugal improved significantly compared to 2014, although still with a negative index. 8 Index between positive and negative answers < -40% -40% to 0% An upward trend A downward trend Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2 3 The main opinion in Europe is that spending power decreased in 2015. 20 1 ≥ 0% How would you describe your spending power today compared to last year? For five consecutive years, consumers of all countries claim they have been experiencing a reduction of their spending power. 1 2 3 Index based on the sum of positive and negative answers 4 -18% -23% -24% -30% -22% 5 Europe • Southern European countries are more affected by this feeling than Northern European countries. 6 7 • The evolution of spending power in Russia is quite singular: starting from a high positive feeling about spending power in 2011, it radically dropped, becoming negative in 2014 and continuing its fall in 2015. 8 • Portuguese consumers state that they experienced a reduction of their spending power, although a much smaller negative index than in 2014 (- 49% vs. - 32%). UK France Portugal Spain Italy Greece Germany Belgium The Denmark Netherlands Poland 2011 21 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2012 Russia 2013 Slovenia 2014 South Africa 2015 How would you describe your spending power today compared to last year? In 2015, 44% of the respondents believe they have the same amount to spend, compared to 31% in 2014. • Also 44% of Portuguese respondents claim to have lost spending power, in this case compared to 59% in 2014. • Youngest are the most optimistic. Portugal 1 2 3 Gender 4 have more 12% You to spend 5 6 have the same 44% You amount to spend 7 11% 49% 40% 13% 40% 47% 8 44% You have less to spend Age 18-24 25-34 18% 49% 34% 45-54 13% 39% 48% 12% 51% 36% 22 You have more to spend Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 55-64 35-44 You have the same amount to spend 13% 42% 46% 6% 43% 50% You have less to spend How would you describe your spending power today compared to last year? How do you think your spending power will develop in 2016? When it comes to current spending power, year 2015, marks a shift on existing negative trend; indeed, from 2012 to 2014, Europeans felt a constant decrease in their current spending power. • In 2015, consumers still consider their spending power decreased (-22%) vs. last year but for the first time, since 2011, there is an improvement. In Portugal values become closer to European average. Current spending power -40% 4 20% 0% 5 -20% 6 -40% -60% -80% Europe -100% Portugal 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Expected spending power -40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Europe -100% Portugal 2009 23 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2 3 • About expected spending power, Europeans are more optimistic. • In Portugal, after several years of negative expectations, consumers are for the first time since 2009, with a positive value about their expected spending power (+12pp vs. European average). 1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 7 8 How do you think your spending power will develop in 2016? 4 5 • In 7 countries out of 14, consumers have a negative feeling about the expected spending power: France, Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Greece and Russia. In 2014, they were 10 (Portugal, Spain, France, Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Greece, Ukraine, Finland). 6 7 8 • 7 countries have a downward trend, which means that there are fewer optimistic people in the country this year than last year: South Africa, the UK, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Russia and Poland. Index between positive and negative answers < -40% -40% to 0% An upward trend A downward trend Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2 3 European expectation about spending power in the future reveal an upward trend. 24 1 ≥ 0% How do you think your spending power will develop in 2016? In Europe, the global expected spending power remains negative over time but an upward trend is emerging. • France, Belgium and Greece are the countries that have more pessimistic expectations about the future. 1 2 3 Index based on the sum of positive and negative answers 4 -14% -14% -9% -11% -7% 5 Europe 6 • Portugal and Spain stand out in a positive way: consumers now expect a positive spending power, after several years of negative values. 7 8 • Since 2012, Portuguese have improved their expectations about next year’s spending power, being now between the European top 5 most optimistic countries. UK France Portugal Spain Italy Greece Germany Belgium The Denmark Netherlands Poland 2011 25 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2012 Russia 2013 Slovenia 2014 South Africa 2015 How would you describe your spending power today compared to last year? How do you think your spending power will develop in 2016? In Europe, consumers still have the opinion that their spending power has decreased, but this trend tends to weaken. 4 • As in 2014, all countries, except the UK, declare having less spending power than last year. 5 Europe -7% 6 7 • However, half of them are expecting a positive development of their spending power for 2016: Portugal, Spain and Slovenia are joining Denmark, Poland and South Africa in this trend. 8 13% 12% 5% 1% • Russia which expected a positive development of its spending power in 2015, declares to have in fact less spending power than in 2014. 11% -11% -16% -26% -31% -32% -1% -13% -13% -36% -13% -22% -6% 7% 9% 5% -13% -16% -13% -25% -36% -42% -46% -66% UK France Portugal Spain Italy Greece Germany Belgium The Denmark Netherlands Poland Russia Current state (2015) 26 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2 3 Index based on the sum of positive and negative answers -22% • Only two countries think they will have less spending power in the future: France and Belgium. 1 Slovenia South Africa Expected state (2016) How do you think your spending power will develop in 2016? 1 2 In Portugal the percentage of respondents who are positive about the spending power evolution is higher than those who are negative. Portugal 3 Gender 4 25% Improve 5 • Among Portuguese respondents, 20% say they will have lower spending power in 2016, which is more than offset by the 25% of respondents saying they will improve their spending power. Overall index is positive for the first time since 2009. • The age group of 18-24 years old has the most positive expectations. 38% Stay the same 20% Deteriorate 6 7 28% 38% 22% 12% 22% 38% 18% 22% 8 17% I don’t know Age 18-24 25-34 37% 38% 9% 16% 27 Improve Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 55-64 35-44 25% 36% 23% 15% Stay the same 45-54 26% 33% 22% 19% Deteriorate 19% 40% 21% 19% I don’t know 19% 42% 23% 16% Thinking about what you spend your money on now versus a year ago, are you spending less, the same or more on the following: Tax is the most absorbing product category for european budgets. • Roughly one European out of 3 makes trade-offs against irregular spending, entertainment, holidays and clothing and preserves basic necessities such as groceries and energy, health and day-to-day spending. • As in last year, Europeans feel they suffer more from tax pressure: 35% of them think they spent more on taxes this year than in 2014 (in Portugal, 37%). • In Portugal, compared with last year, the three main categories people claim they have spent more are Taxes, Health and Essentials. The top 3 categories with larger decrease on value spent are holidays, irregular spending and clothing/footwear. Portugal 3 Taxes 37% Health 32% Essencial goods/ energy bills 31% Education 29% Day to day spending 27% Digital/electronic spendig 21% Entertainment/leisure 17% 42% Holidays 16% 38% Clothing/footwear 16% 42% Irregular spending 15% 41% Financial services 15% 52% 45% 52% 39% 18% 42% 3% Essencial goods/ energy bills 28% 60% 9% 1% Health 27% 56% Day to day spending 26% 51% 2% Housing 23% 61% 3% Digital/electronic spendig 22% 54% 3% Education 22% 43% 4% Holidays 21% 42% 31% 6% 2% Entertainment/leisure 20% 43% 32% 5% 3% Clothing/footwear 20% 48% 6% Financial services 20% 56% 6% Irregular spending 18% 13% 29% 50% 12% 67% 35% 13% 60% 26% 38% 42% 40% 41% 27% 15% 4 Taxes 9% 9% More Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2 Europe Housing 28 1 50% 8% 7% 10% 2% 11% 21% 10% 21% 16% 33% About the same Less 6 2% 7 6% 8 3% 3% 17% 42% 6% 20% 29% 5 7% 6% I don’t know In the future, if needed, which of the following areas would you be prepared to cut back spending on? Similar to previous year, the main categories in which Europeans are willing to spend less are irregular spending, entertainment/leisure, clothing/footwear and holidays. • In Portugal, this trend remains the same, although, on average, the willingness to cut back spending is much higher. • Europeans are, in general, not prepared to cut back on health, groceries, housing and education. Portugal follows the same trend however with a higher % of people claiming they are not prepared to cut back more. Portugal 1 2 3 Europe Essencial goods/ energy bills -75% Health -74% Housing -70% Education Taxes Financial services Day to day spending Digital/electronic spendig 25% Essencial goods/ energy bills 26% Health Housing 30% -67% Education 33% -63% 37% -41% 59% -25% -20% 75% 80% -69% 31% -73% Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 5 27% -65% 6 35% 7 41% -59% Taxes -50% 50% Financial services -49% 51% Day to day spending Digital/electronic spendig Clothing/footwear -16% 84% Clothing/footwear Holidays -15% 85% Holidays Entertainment/leisure -10% 90% Entertainment/leisure Irregular spending -10% 90% Irregular spending -37% -33% -30% -33% -25% -19% Not prepared to cut back on 29 4 8 63% 67% 70% 67% 75% 81% Prepared to cut back on 1 2 2015 Christmas Budget 30 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 3 4 5 6 7 8 How much did your household approximately spend on the subjects below for the year end festivities in 2014? How much do you expect to spend for the year end festivities in 2015? As from year 2008 Christmas season predicted budget has been decreasing in Portugal, however actual spent budget started growing again in 2014. In any case, there is a clear new spending pattern, coming from a budget above 600€ to a new standard between 300€ and 400€. Portugal - Declared expected budget vs budget spent 31 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2 3 4 5 €700.00 6 €600.00 • Historically when we compare current year budget expectations and declared actual budget spent there are three patterns, namely: - until year 2009, expectations were conservative and in fact consumers ended up spending more than initially predicted; - between 2009 and 2011, there is an almost perfect match between predictions and actual budget; - in years 2012 and 2013, actual budget was significantly lower than initially predicted budget; - and finally, as from 2014, it seems we are coming back to an upward trend, in which predicted budget is lower than actual budget spent. 1 7 €500.00 8 €400.00 €300.00 €200.00 2007 2008 2009 2010 Expected budget Budget spent 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 How much did your household approximately spend on the subjects below for the year end festivities in 2014? How much do you expect to spend for the year end festivities in 2015? The downward budget trend slows down this year. 1 2 3 4 • Last year, only 4 countries had a rising budget. This year there are 6: Denmark, The Netherlands, Germany, UK, France and Spain. The biggest increase is for Denmark with 5,2% this year (+6,3 points). • In 2014, 5 countries predicted their budget would fall by over 5%. In 2015, there are 4: South Africa (-9,9%), Greece (-8,6%), Portugal (-5,6%) and Russia (-7%). 5 5% to… Denmark (617) 5,2% 7 0% to 5% The Netherlands (245) 1,5% Germany (423) 0,9% UK (884) 0,7% France (577) 0,2% Spain (560) 0,2% 0% to -5% Poland (302) -0,7% Slovenia (320) -1,1% Belgium (452) -2,2% Italy (421) -3,1% -5% to … 32 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 6 Portugal (315) -5,6% Russia (217) -7,0% Greece (402) -8,6% South Africa (316) -9,9% 8 How much did your household approximately spend on the subjects below for the year end festivities in 2014? How much do you expect to spend for the year end festivities in 2015? Compared to last year, the average budget for European consumers remained quite constant (-0,3%). The countries which have predicted the highest budget cuts are South Africa (-9,93%), Greece (-8,63%), Russia (-7%) and Portugal (-5,55%). The best progression is for Denmark with 5,21%. • In Portugal, there is a negative evolution of predicted budget, nonetheless it is important to notice that in year 2014, predicted budget was 270€, however when asked this year about actual value spent last year it increased to 333€ (+ 23% than previously predicted). • European consumers prioritize gifts and food rather than socializing in terms of Christmas spending. Socializing often suffers the most important reduction compared to the other spending categories; this trend is valid for 2015. UE UK Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey Portugal Spain Amount % vs 2014 Amount % vs 2014 Amount % vs 2014 Amount % vs 2014 Amount % vs 2014 Gifts 276 0,25% 468 -3,70% 350 0,62% 143 -11,54% 269 5,07% Food 172 3,18% 274 12,59% 184 2,61% 118 4,84% 208 -1,17% Socializing 65 -10,27% 141 -4,56% 43 -11,27% 54 -8,93% 83 -10,22% Sub total 513 -0,28% 884 0,68% 577 0,23% 315 -5,55% 560 0,20% 2 3 4 5 6 7 Italy Greece Germany Belgium The Netherlands Amount % vs 2014 Amount % vs 2014 Amount % vs 2014 Amount % vs 2014 Amount % vs 2014 Gifts 218 -2,37% 154 -13,75% 256 2,45% 241 2,99% 114 5,53% Food 143 -1,12% 168 -5,73% 124 2,82% 167 0,86% 106 8,40% Socializing 59 -9,81% 80 -3,85% 43 -11,89% 45 -29,58% 25 -29,34% Sub total 421 -3,08% 402 -8,63% 423 0,87% 452 -2,23% 245 1,50% Denmark 33 France 1 Poland Russia Slovenia South Africa Amount % vs 2014 Amount % vs 2014 Amount % vs 2014 Amount % vs 2014 Amount % vs 2014 Gifts 379 1,05% 134 16,70% 102 -2,70% 149 3,59% 135 -9,41% Food 184 16,52% 132 -6,20% 93 -1,86% 126 -0,93% 115 -6,77% Socializing 54 1,05% 35 -26,48% 22 -34,36% 46 -14,18% 66 -15,87% Sub total 617 5,21% 302 -0,71% 217 -6,96% 320 -1,11% 316 -9,93% 8 How much did your household approximately spend on the subjects below for the year end festivities in 2014? How much do you expect to spend for the year end festivities in 2015? 1 The ranking for category spending has been the same for the last 4 years, however this year gifts seem to loose weight to food and socializing. 4 Portugal 12% Yourself 19% • 44% of the budget is allocated to children, similar to year 2014, with 45%. 27% 8 Other adults 34 Charity donations 45% 35% 2013 17% 9% 2014 2015 Gifts Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 38% 32% 16% 15% 2012 7 Other children 58% 50% 36% Your partner 6 2% 49% 3 5 Your children 17% 24% 2 Food Socializing In your household, what has been and what will be the total holiday budget for gifts for the following people and the number of gifts for each for year end festivities 2014 and 2015? In Portugal, own children are clearly privileged in terms of budget allocation. € • Both the number of gifts as well as their value will be reduced. Christmas 2015 Budget variation Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2 3 4 5 Number of gifts variation Average value variation Your children € 38,16 1,67 gifts at € 22,80 -€ 1,26 -3% -6% Other adults € 34,60 3,91 gifts at € 8,84 -€ 10,49 -23% -16% -9% Your partner € 26,60 1,15 gifts at € 23,10 € 0,59 2% -11% 15% Other kids € 23,68 2,44 gifts at € 9,70 -€ 3,94 -14% -10% -5% Yourself € 17,54 0,74 gifts at € 23,71 -€ 2,57 -13% -21% 10% 3% 6 7 8 i.e. a total amount of € 140,58 plus a donation of € 2,46 to charity, which equals the total gift amount (€ 143,03) 35 1 What are the reasons driving your decision to spend less during year-end festivities? Despite positive evolution European, as well as Portuguese, consumers are still very sensitive to the state of the economy and the fear of economic downturn continues to slow down spending. • 43% of Europeans believe that the economy will get worse, which is the major factor for spending less. 34% mention that their revenues have declined, compared with 37% in 2014 and 40% in 2013. • Portuguese become more optimistic than Europeans regarding fear of future economic downturn, this year 41% consider that the economy will get worse vs. 45% in 2014 and 51% in 2013. The major factor for spending less is revenue decrease with 49%, although significantly better compared to previous year 63%. Portugal Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2 3 Europe 61% 63% 49% My revenues after tax decreased 51% 45% 41% The economic downturn continues I’d rather save money because I’m afraid of losing my job 24% 18% 20% My revenues after tax decreased The economic downturn continues 40% 37% 34% 47% 46% 43% I’d rather save money because I’m afraid of losing my job 15% 17% 18% I am in debt 13% 24% 19% I am in debt 17% 20% 18% Other reason 8% 10% 11% Other reason 19% 19% 21% 14% 18% 10% I have to save money because I lost my job 2013 36 1 2014 2015 I have to save money because I lost my job 13% 13% 11% 4 5 6 7 8 What are the reasons driving your decision to spend less during year-end festivities? The decrease in after taxes revenues is the major reason for spending less for all segments, followed by the fear of future economic downturn. Portugal 1 2 3 Gender 4 49% 5 41% • When it comes to fear of losing job, the younger consumers are the most worried. 6 7 20% 19% 44% 44% 22% 18% 55% 38% 18% 21% Age 18-24 25-34 42% 35% 33% 9% My revenues after tax have decreased The economic downturn continues and I believe it will get worse I’d rather save money because I’m afraid of losing my job 37 I am in debt Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 55-64 35-44 38% 37% 30% 9% 45-54 52% 39% 30% 14% 54% 44% 9% 22% 56% 47% 4% 37% 8 What are the reasons driving your decision to spend more during year-end festivities? For 39% of Europeans wanting to enjoy and avoid thinking about the crisis is the main driver for spending more, followed by promotions with 37%. • In Portugal, promotions are the main driver to spend more for 41% of respondents (decreased from 47% in 2014). Wanting to enjoy themselves and forget about the crisis is the second reason most mentioned with 40% (compared to 33% last year). • There are still 24% of Portuguese claiming they are spending more because their after tax revenues have increased (vs. 28% in 2014). Portugal 43% 47% 41% Promotions I want to enjoy, and avoid thinking about the bad ... 40% 33% 40% 29% 28% 24% My revenues after tax have increased The economic situation is more secure 13% 14% 15% 3 Promotions 35% 38% 37% I want to enjoy, and avoid thinking about the bad ... My revenues after tax have increased 45% 43% 39% 27% 28% 27% The economic situation is more secure 15% 17% 17% Other reason 15% 20% 14% Other reason 18% 14% 16% There are many innovations that make me spend more 16% 17% 9% There are many innovations that make me spend more 18% 16% 14% 1% 1% 6% Services and recommendations from retailers may... 22% 18% 5% The credit terms offered by the retailers are good 3% 3% 5% 2013 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2 Europe Consumer reviews and ratings will convince me to... 38 1 2014 2015 Consumer reviews and ratings will convince me to... Services and recommendations from retailers may... The credit terms offered by the retailers are good 7% 7% 6% 14% 14% 11% 7% 7% 7% 4 5 6 7 8 What are the reasons driving your decision to spend more during year-end festivities? When comparing age and gender groups, clearly promotions are more relevant for male and youngest (1824 years-old) age groups. 1 2 3 Gender Portugal 4 41% • For Female and age groups as from 45 years old, wanting to enjoy and forget about the bad economic situation is the main driver for spending more. 5 40% 6 7 24% 52% 39% 23% 21% 34% 47% 24% 10% 15% Age 18-24 25-34 61% 33% 33% 21% Promotions I want to enjoy and avoid thinking about the economic situation too much My revenues after tax have increased 39 The economic situation is more secure Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 55-64 35-44 51% 37% 17% 7% 45-54 49% 40% 29% 15% 30% 48% 18% 11% 13% 42% 25% 25% 8 1 2 Most desired and most popular holiday gifts 40 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 3 4 5 6 7 8 What types of presents would you most like to receive? 1 2 3 In 2015, cash gains again importance in terms of mostly desired gifts (9 out of 13 countries vs. only 4 countries in 2014). Top 10 Portugal 2015 2014 Money (cash) 1st 57% 1st 56% Books 2nd 52% 2nd 53% Clothes/shoes 3rd 47% 3rd 51% • The second choice as most desired gift are books, which were ranked first only in 4 countries compared to 7 in 2014. Travel 4th 45% 4th 50% Tablets 5th 34% 7th 35% • In Portugal since 2012 the ranking of top three most desired gifts is the same: cash is the most desired one, than books and clothes/shoes. Laptop/PC Computer 6th 33% 6th 38% Smartphone 7 th 32% 5 th 39% Cosmetics/Perfumes 8th 32% 8th 34% Chocolates 9th 28% 16th 25% 28% 30% Jewellery/watch 41 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 10th 9th First choice 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 United Kingdom Books Books - - - France Money (cash) Books Money (cash) Money (cash) Money (cash) Portugal Money (cash) Money (cash) Money (cash) Money (cash) Money (cash) Spain Money (cash) Books Money (cash) Money (cash) Books Italy Books Books Money (cash) Money (cash) Books Greece Money (cash) Travel Money (cash) Money (cash) Books Germany Money (cash) Books Money (cash) Money (cash) Books Belgium Money (cash) Money (cash) Money (cash) Money (cash) Money (cash) Denmark Books Books Money (cash) Money (cash) Books Poland Books Books Money (cash) Books Books Russia Money (cash) Money (cash) Money (cash) Money (cash) Money (cash) Slovenia Money (cash) - - - - South Africa Money (cash) Money (cash) Chocolates Money (cash) Money (cash) 4 5 6 7 8 What types of presents would you most like to receive? Money and books are the most desired categories for both men and women, nonetheless with a much higher % for women than men (66% vs. 47%). • Men are also attracted by technology: Smartphones (3rd), Laptops/PC computers (4th) and Tablets (7th). Whereas women are more interested in fashion/beauty gifts: Clothes/shoes (3rd), Cosmetics/perfumes (5th), Beauty care (6th), Jewellery (7th) and Accessories (9th). 1 2 3 Top 10 Portugal Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2014 Money (cash) 47% 53% Books 39% 44% Smartphone 37% 45% Laptop/PC Computer 36% 44% Clothes/shoes 36% 37% Travel 34% 42% Tablets 32% 38% CD 20% 22% Gift vouchers 19% 20% Food & Drink 19% 29% Top 10 Portugal 42 2015 2015 2014 Money (cash) 66% 59% Books 64% 62% Clothes/shoes 59% 64% Travel 56% 58% Cosmetics/Perfumes 47% 49% Beauty care, massage, spa treatment 46% 47% Jewellery/watch 38% 41% Chocolates 38% 33% Accessories (Bags) 36% 42% Tablets 35% 33% 4 5 6 7 8 What types of presents would you most like to receive? As last year, money, clothes/shoes, laptop/PC computers and travel are between the top five most desired gifts for the youngest generations (18 to 24 and 25 to 34 years old). • Although money continues to be the most preferred gift for Portuguese youngest generation (18 to 24 years old), it has decreased its importance from 71% in 2013 to 65% in 2014 and 64% in 2015. 1 2 3 Top 10 Portugal Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2014 Money (cash) 64% 65% Clothes/shoes 57% 60% Laptop/PC Computer 54% 56% Smartphone 48% 53% Travel 47% 52% Books 45% 48% Tablets 43% 43% Jewellery/watch 36% 38% Accessories (Bags) 36% 39% Chocolates 34% 28% Top 10 Portugal 43 2015 2015 4 Age 18-24 65% 61% Books 51% 50% Clothes/shoes 50% 55% Travel 38% 45% Laptop/PC Computer 36% 38% Tablets 35% 38% Smartphone 35% 37% Cosmetics/Perfumes 32% 32% Jewellery/watch 30% 33% Chocolates 28% 28% 6 7 8 2014 Money (cash) 5 Age 25-34 What types of presents would you most like to receive? Books, money, clothes/shoes and travel are the most preferred gifts for the adult generations (35 to 44 and 45 to 54 years old). • When compared to 2014, while in the age group 35-44 yearsold books lost the 1st place to money (Cash), for 45-54 age group books preference increase and now occupy the 1st place instead of money (Cash). 1 2 3 Top 10 Portugal Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2014 Money (cash) 59% 58% Books 50% 60% Clothes/shoes 45% 51% Travel 41% 48% Cosmetics/Perfumes 34% 30% Beauty care, massage, spa treatment 31% 31% Smartphone 30% 43% Jewellery/watch 29% 28% Tablets 29% 40% Laptop/PC Computer 28% 33% Top 10 Portugal 44 2015 2015 4 Age 35-44 53% 51% Money (cash) 52% 53% Travel 50% 55% Clothes/shoes 46% 41% Laptop/PC Computer 36% 37% Tablets 35% 26% Smartphone 30% 33% Cosmetics/Perfumes 29% 32% Gift vouchers 27% 26% Beauty care, massage, spa treatment 26% 28% 6 7 8 2014 Books 5 Age 44-54 What types of presents would you most like to receive? For the most senior generation (55-64 years-old) the most desired gift categories are books, travel and money. • After a significant drop in its importance last year (from 67% in 2013 to 43% in 2014), money is back to the top three most desired gifts with 46%. 45 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 1 2 3 Top 10 Portugal 2015 2014 Books 61% 56% Travel 50% 51% Money (cash) 46% 43% Clothes/shoes 41% 50% CD 33% 28% Cosmetics/Perfumes 30% 38% Tablets 29% 31% Chocolates 29% 25% Gift vouchers 25% 20% Jewellery/watch 25% 25% 4 Age 55-64 5 6 7 8 What types of presents would you most like to receive? In 2015, for all groups money is the most desired gift, although with a higher % of preference for lowest income groups. • The second choice is different between income groups: the bellow average group prefer books, while the average income consumers choose clothes/shoes and the richest ones prefer to receive a tablet. 1 2 3 Top 10 Portugal 4 Above average income 2015 2014 Average income Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2014 Money (cash) 56% 42% Money (cash) 52% 52% Tablets 51% 34% Clothes/shoes 47% 48% Travel 48% 71% Tablets 35% 33% Books 46% 54% Cosmetics/Perfumes 35% 27% Clothes/shoes 40% 50% Smartphone 33% 45% Jewellery/watch 34% 29% Gift vouchers 29% 24% Beauty care, massage, spa treatment 33% 32% Laptop/PC Computer 29% 30% Tickets for theatre/concert/cinema/sports match 31% 45% Jewellery/watch 29% 34% Smartphone 30% 25% CD 29% 19% Gift vouchers 30% 20% Tickets for theatre/concert/cinema/sports match 28% 31% Below average income 46 2015 2015 2014 Money (cash) 58% 58% Books 52% 53% Clothes/shoes 48% 52% Travel 42% 46% Laptop/PC Computer 34% 39% Smartphone 32% 40% Cosmetics/Perfumes 32% 36% Tablets 31% 36% Chocolates 29% 26% Beauty care, massage, spa treatment 28% 30% 5 6 7 8 Which of the following types of presents do you think you will buy for your friends and family this year (apart from children and teenagers)? As last year, in Portugal, the most preferred gift to offer are books (46% of respondents). Clothes/shoes, chocolates and cosmetics/perfumes are also popular gifts. • There is no convergence between offered and desired gifts. Even if money has gained one place compared to 2014, it is only at the 8th rank of intended gifts to offer whereas it is the most desired gift. • Books keep being a good gift option, since it is the most intended gift to offer and the 2nd most desired. Top 10 Portugal 2015 2014 Books 1st 46% 1st 51% Clothes/shoes 2nd 39% 2nd 42% Chocolates 3rd 31% 3rd 31% Cosmetics/perfumes 4th 27% 4th 29% CD 5th 18% 5th 18% Accessories (bags) 6th 17% 6th 17% Gift vouchers 7 Money (cash) Food & Drink Beauty care, massage, spa treatment th 17% 11 12% 8th 16% 9th 13% 9th 15% 8th 14% 10th 15% 7th 15% th 2015 2014 Chocolates Books France Books Books Portugal Books Books Spain Clothes/shoes Books Italy Books Books Greece Books Books Germany Books Books Belgium Gift vouchers Books Denmark Books Books Poland Books Books Russia Chocolates Cosmetics/Perfumes Slovenia Chocolates - South Africa Chocolates Chocolates United Kingdom Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2 3 First choice 47 1 4 5 6 7 8 Which of the following types of presents do you think you will buy for a teen between the ages of 12 and 18? The most offered gift for teenagers in Europe are books. • This year, as in previous year, the top three in Portugal is books, clothes/shoes and chocolates. Top 10 Portugal 2015 2014 Books 1st 35% 1st 37% Clothes/shoes 2nd 25% 2nd 22% Games 3rd 23% 3rd 20% Money (cash) 4th 18% 5th 11% Chocolates 5th 13% 6th 10% CD 6th 13% 4th 14% Gift vouchers 7 Games*, role pays, games accessories… Cosmetics / Perfumes First choice th 12% 13 6% 8th 11% 8th 9% 9th 10% 7th 10% 10th 10% 9th 8% th 2015 2014 United Kingdom Games Games France Games Games Portugal Books Books Spain Games Games Italy Books Books Greece Books Books Germany Games Books Belgium Money (cash) Money (cash) Denmark Games Games Poland Books Books Russia Chocolates Chocolates Slovenia Chocolates - Games Games South Africa Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2 3 Tablets 48 1 *(board games, puzzles, quiz games, card games...) 4 5 6 7 8 Which of the following types of presents do you think you will buy for anyone under the age of 12? Model construction is set as the successful gift for Christmas 2015, it is ranked 1st in 6 countries. • This year, in Portugal, the 1st choice of gift to offer to children are clothes/shoes, which was 3rd in rank last year. Model construction toys come 3rd option in Portugal. Top 10 Portugal 2015 2014 Clothes / shoes 1st 34% 3rd 29% Books 2nd 33% 1st 32% Model construction toys 3rd 28% 2nd 30% Educational toys 4th 28% - - Games 5th 25% 4th 27% Dolls & plush 6th 23% 7th 17% Baby and infant articles 7 th 23% 6 th 18% Learning and experimenting 8th 17% 5th 22% Technical toys 9th 12% 8th 13% 10th 10% 9th 12% First choice 2015 2014 Games Books Model construction toys Model construction toys Clothes / shoes Books Spain Educational toys Model construction toys Italy Baby and infant articles Baby and infant articles Greece Games Games Germany Games Games Belgium Model construction toys Model construction toys Denmark Model construction toys Games Poland Model construction toys Learning and experimenting Russia Model construction toys Learning and experimenting Slovenia Model construction toys - Educational toys Games United Kingdom France Portugal South Africa Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2 3 Action toys 49 1 4 5 6 7 8 Top gift purchased and wished for 2015, 2014, 2013 and 2007 1 2 3 In 2007, before the beginning of the financial crisis, there was almost a perfect match between most desired and preferred gifts. 4 5 • In 2013, there was almost a perfect mismatch between desired and preferred gifts, with most Europeans wishing for money but preferring to offer books. 6 First choice 2013 2007 1 buy 1 wish 1 buy 1 wish 1 buy 1 wish 1 buy Books Chocolates Books Books - - - - France Money (cash) Books Books Books Money (cash) Books Money (cash) Books Portugal Money (cash) Books Money (cash) Books Money (cash) Books Clothes/shoes Books Spain Money (cash) Clothes/shoes Books Books Money (cash) Clothes/shoes Clothes/shoes Clothes/shoes Italy Books Books Books Books Money (cash) Books Books Books Greece Money (cash) Books Travel Books Money (cash) Books Clothes/shoes Books Germany Money (cash) Books Books Books Money (cash) Books Money (cash) Books Belgium Money (cash) Gift vouchers Money (cash) Books Money (cash) Gift vouchers Gift vouchers Gift vouchers Denmark Books Books Books Books Money (cash) Books - - Poland Books Books Books Books Money (cash) - - Russia Money (cash) Chocolates Money (cash) Cosmetics/ perfumes Money (cash) Cosmetics/perfumes Cosmetics/perfumes Money (cash) Cosmetics/perfumes Slovenia Money (cash) Chocolates - - - - - - South Africa Money (cash) Chocolates Money (cash) Games Chocolates Chocolates Clothes/shoes Music United Kingdom • In 2015, there is again a mismatch between most desired gift, which is money, and most intended to offer, books. Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2014 1 wish st • In 2014, there was a shift with a lower level of mismatch between desired gifts and intentions to buy, with a pattern closer to 2007. 50 2015 st st st st st st st 7 8 For your selected toys, which criteria do you favor? For Europeans, the best gifts for children are still those considered to be educational. 1 2 3 Portugal 4 5 • 54% of Europeans favor educational gifts for children, versus 52% in 2014. • As in the last two years, Portuguese keep preferring even more educational toys in comparison to Europeans (70% vs. 54%). 70 6 % EDUCATIVE 10 % INNOVATIVE 7 7 % Traditional 7 % Green 8 6 % Trendy 25% 39% 54% 38% 48% 55% 70% 69% 70% 62% 62% 24% 10% 14% 22% 10% 5% 7% 10% 15% 13% 7% 7% 6% Europe UK France Portugal 7% 51 10% 9% 11% 5% 6% 7% 12% 2% 9% 3% 7% 14% 5% 8% 21% 2% 9% 20% Spain Italy Greece Germany Belgium Denmark Poland Russia 15% 13% Educative Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 15% 20% 11% 64% 7% 22% 23% 11% 15% 14% 59% 11% 18% 17% 51% 16% Innovative 7% Traditional 15% 17% 10% 7% 10% Slovenia Green 8% 4% 7% South Africa Trendy 1 2 Purchasing strategies 3 4 5 6 7 8 52 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey When do you expect to purchase the majority of your gifts for this year versus last year? • UK, Germany and The Netherlands are the countries in which Christmas shopping is more anticipated. Before Nov Nov 1-15 Dec 16-24 Dec 25-31 Dec Jan and after 8% 28% 35% 24% 2% 1% in 2015 Slovenia 5 6 8 Greece Spain Russia Denmark Belgium Italy Portugal Europe The Netherlands South Africa UK France Germany Before December Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 4 7 Poland 53 2 3 Almost 60% of Portuguese do their Christmas shopping between December 1st and 24th. • Russians and Greeks mostly buy their presents after the 15th of December: Winter sales begin in the middle of December and following orthodox traditions gifts are exchanged on the 31st of December. 1 Between 1 and 15 December After 15 December When buying gifts for Christmas, to what extent the following factors influence your buying decision? Sustainability is a topic most consumers are concerned with: nearly all behaviours concerned with sustainability – except for child labour – increasing compared to previous year. People are more careful when it comes to environment protection, as well as more concerned with social and economic sustainability. • The top factor influencing shopping decision is the information provided in the packaging with 67% of European respondents and 74% in Portugal. • Still, 43% of consumers in Portugal and 45% in Europe, claim sustainable products are more expensive and as such will not favor buying these products. Portugal 2 3 Europe 75% 74% I am careful about the information provided on the packaging I do not buy products involving child labour 1 80% 71% I am careful about the information provided on the packaging 65% 67% I do not buy products involving child labour 67% 65% I wil mainly buy products made either in my region or in my country 67% 65% I wil mainly buy products made either in my region or in my country 55% 59% I do not buy products manufactured with bad working conditions in developing countries 63% 64% I do not buy products manufactured with bad working conditions in developing countries 55% 57% I avoid buying products that do not respect economic sustainability 63% 62% I avoid buying products that do not respect economic sustainability 50% 55% I avoid buying products that do not respect ecological sustainability 57% 60% I avoid buying products that do not respect ecological sustainability 53% 59% I avoid buying products with a substantial carbon impact on the planet 63% 59% I avoid buying products with a substantial carbon impact on the planet 50% 56% I avoid buying products that do not respect social sustainability 56% 59% I avoid buying products that do not respect social sustainability 49% 56% I avoid buying sustainable products because they are too expensive 43% 43% 43% 45% I avoid buying sustainable products because they are too expensive 2014 54 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2015 4 5 6 7 8 Regarding your year-end festivities shopping (both gifts and food), how will you change your purchasing behaviour compared to last year? As since 2011, this year Europeans as well as the Portuguese will prioritize their budget on products that are on sale and that are useful. • 64% of Portuguese claim they will not buy products on impulse in any case significantly lower than the 79% of 2014 (compared with European average of 40% in 2015 and 48% in 2004). • In Portugal, price have lost importance compared to previous year, however it continues to be one of the main drivers for gifting decision with 51% of consumers saying that they will take price into consideration when doing their shopping (compared with 75% in 2014), whereas in Europe it will be relevant for 37% of respondents (vs. 46% in 2014). Portugal I will offer gifts without taking into account the price I will buy second-hand products as gifts I intend to give group gifts I will buy for fewer people I will buy less expensive gifts I will buy discount and retailers’ private label products I will shop at less expensive stores I will manage my Christmas spending by preparing a budget -79% -64% -75% I will offer gifts without taking into account the price -33% -18% -41% -48% -10% -5% -27% -15% 7% 7% I will buy less expensive gifts -6% 8% I will buy discount and retailers’ private label products -8% 22% I will shop at less expensive stores -3% I will manage my Christmas spending by preparing a budget 14% 29% I will buy products and gifts that are on sale I will focus on useful gifts 13% 34% I will focus on useful gifts -7% Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 1% 6% 0% 6% 9% 10% 17% 8% 17% 2014 55 7 -25% -18% I will buy for fewer people I will buy products and gifts that are on sale 6 -40% -32% I intend to give group gifts 25% 5 -46% -37% I will buy second-hand products as gifts -55% -38% 4 -48% -40% I will buy on impulse -51% 2 3 Europe I will buy on impulse 1 2015 8 Thinking about your actual spend behaviour compared to a year ago, are you doing less, the same or more of the following? Following previous years trends, European consumers are becoming more promotions sensitive and digital oriented, this trend is even stronger in Portugal. • In Portugal, online research is gaining ground with 41% claiming they will use it more to find better prices and 30% will also do it more to find opinions and suggestions. • In a financial distress context, Portuguese consumers are more cautious regarding credit, with only 3% of respondents willing to use more consumer credit, against 58% claiming they will use less consumer credit loans. Portugal Buy more items “on sale” Research online more (to find better prices,...) Research online to find opinions, suggestions,... Manage your Christmas spending by preparing a budget 50% 34% 41% 30% 3 25% Using loyalty points 23% I delay big spendings 20% 18% 28% 15% 43% Using loans from family 3% 22% 19% Using loyalty points 27% 19% I delay big spendings 22% 19% Using gift cards 17% 24% 35% 13% 19% Paying with debit card or in cash 7% 37% Using credit proposed by retailer 3% 24% 17% 14% 6% 39% 33% I enjoy purchasing in stores 44% 54% 55% Using specialized consumer credit 3% 20% 58% loans 13% 13% 11% 56% 39% 28% 16% 48% Buy more items “on sale” 4 Research online more (to find better prices,...) Research online to find opinions, suggestions,... Manage your Christmas spending by preparing a budget 13% 13% 40% 28% I enjoy purchasing in stores 8%7% 35% Using your specific savings spared 10% 42% during the year for Christmas I want to spend less money on 8% 63% food 10% 12% Using your specific savings spared during the year for Christmas I want to spend less money on food Paying with debit card or in cash 7% 9% 44% 37% 42% 10% 12% 22% 52% 6 11% 14% 7 60% 16% 8% 47% 10% 15% 38% 19% 48% 16% 60% 16% 55% 21% 16% 14% 49% 20% 20% 17% 14% 10% 18% Using credit proposed by retailer 7% 30% 20% Using loans from family 6%28% 35% 31% 19% Using specialized consumer credit 28% loans 6% 35% 31% 33% About the same 11% 30% Less 5 12% 14% 45% 19% More Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2 Europe Using gift cards 56 1 I don’t know 8 What % of your year end spending will be influenced by promotions? 1 2 Promotions and their impact on spending are becoming continuously more important: one European consumer out of four considers that their spending will be greatly influenced (over 50%) by promotions. Portugal Europe 4 None None 4% Between 1 and 25% • In Portugal, the impact of promotions trend is even stronger than in Europe, as two consumers out of five consider that their spending will be greatly influenced (over 50%) by promotions. • Only 4% of consumers in Portugal and 11% in Europe consider promotions are irrelevant in their shopping decisions in this season. 57 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 3 26% Between 51 and 75% 21% Over 75% I don’t know 19% 11% 5 Between 1 and 25% 19% Between 26 and 50% 11% 23% 6 Between 26 and 50% 25% Between 51 and 75% Over 75% I don’t know 16% 7 8 10% 16% How influential are loyalty/reward programmes in your decision making process? The use of loyalty/reward programs in the shopping decision process is gaining ground, although 22% of European consumers still claim these programs have no influence at all on their behaviour (16% in Portugal). 1 2 3 Portugal 4 Not at all 16% 5 Low • Still the majority of consumers in Europe, 56% on average, give none/low importance to these programs. Medium • Portuguese consumers are more sensitive to these programmes, as 52% already give a medium/high importance to these programmes in their shopping decision process. High 31% 6 38% 7 14% 8 Europe Not at all 22% Low 34% Medium High 58 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 31% 13% 1 2 The Omni-channel Consumer 59 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 3 4 5 6 7 8 Where are you getting ideas and advice on the gifts categories below? Online, both websites and social networks, are widely used by European consumers to get ideas and advice on gifts, especially on high tech, video games, green tech and movies. • When compared to European, Portuguese consumers use less websites to get ideas and advices (in any case, above 17% in all categories) but use much more social networks (above 30% for every single category). • There is a significant % of people using websites to get ideas and advise for food & drinks in Europe (29% in 2015, compared to 14% last year). • Overall, dependent on category, Portuguese consumers prefer getting ideas directly from stores or social networks. 1 2 Portugal Europe High tech 31% 41% Video Games 28% 36% Movies (DVD/Blu Ray) 28% 34% Music 27% 32% Leisure 26% 36% Green tech 26% 34% Books 23% 30% 18% 21% 19% 21% 23% 25% 12% 28% 22% 18% 20% 28% Box & cards 20% 31% 14% 12% 9% 45% Health & beauty 20% 30% 22% Home Gifts 18% 33% Toys 17% 34% Food & drinks 15% 27% 23% 16% 19% 14% 42% 19% 21% 22% Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 17% 26% 15% 16% 33% 14% 31% Sports 45% 13% 19% 16% 13% 42% 15% 25% Food & drinks 29% Social Networks Informal Channels 40% 49% 11% 19% 12% 15% 49% Toys 44% 15% 52% 16% 20% 14% 19% 15% 20% Home Gifts 42% 12% 48% 14% 16% 34% 11% 16% 9%10% 47% Fashion 44% 47% Website 7 Books 45% Health & beauty 43% 37% 15% 16% 12% 49% 16% 24% 21% 12% 25% 24% 15% 20% 14% 12% 27% Box & cards 40% 23% 19% 26% Leisure 49% Green tech 50% 12% 23% 11% 24% TV 5 6 Music 46% 14% 26% 14% 11% 30% 4 12% 25% 16% 24% 18% 17% 38% 14% 20% 17% 23% Movies (DVD/Blu Ray) 49% 15% 36% 35% 17% 20% 14% 13% 31% Video Games 52% 12% 29% 24% 19% High tech 56% 15% 31% 19% 11% 30% Sports 20% Fashion 19% 34% 60 3 18% 14% 51% 17% 15% 54% Magazines Stores 8 Could you please state where you will be searching for products (selecting brand, types, size) and comparing value on the gifts categories below? The use of online resources, either websites or social networks, to compare value and search for products clearly gain ground to stores. • In Portugal social networks play a major role whereas in Europe websites are most critical to finding gifts and comparing prices. • In Portugal, even for food & drinks categories, although physical stores still play the most important role with 50%, social networks with 34% and websites with 15% already play a major role in shopping decision process. • Important to notice is the role of TV that, on average, it is more important in Portugal than in Europe. In any case always significantly below stores, websites and social networks. Portugal 45% Music 26% 42% Green tech 26% 62% 11%13% 8%8% 36% 12% 8% 8% 33% Music 60% 11% 14% 8%10% 36% 5 42% 11% 9% 7% 31% Green tech 59% 11% 13% 8%9% 34% 6 Movies (DVD/Blu Ray) 24% 44% 11%10% 6% 32% High tech 24% 49% 10%8%7% 33% High tech 65% 12% 12%7%9% 37% Leisure 23% 43% 13% 9%10% 36% Leisure 57% 12% 17% 9%10% 38% Books 23% 43% 13% 7% 9% 37% Books 60% 9% 16% 8% 9% 43% Box & cards 50% Health & beauty 52% 10% 14% 8%12% 47% 10% 8%5% 31% Movies (DVD/Blu Ray) 62% 10%13%10%8% 35% Box & cards 19% 38% Health & beauty 19% 40% 12% 11% 12% 41% Toys 19% 41% 11% 12% 6% 43% Toys 54% 9% 15% 9%9% 51% Fashion 18% 42% 10% 9% 11% 44% Fashion 52% 11% 12% 9% 14% 51% Home gifts 18% 40% 11% 8%7% 45% Home gifts 53% 9%12% 7%10% 51% Sports 17% 42% 10%10% 9% 42% Sports 53% 10% 13% 9%10% 45% Food & drinks 38% 9%6%4% 44% 12% 9% 9% 50% Website Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 4 Video Games Food & drinks 15% 34% 61 2 3 Europe Video Games 27% 1 Social Networks Informal Channels 9%10%6%7% 48% 8% 14% 8%10% 58% TV Magazines Stores 7 8 Where would you actually buy the specific gifts below? 1 2 In Europe, large majority of consumers still go to physical stores to close shopping transaction, especially when it comes to food & drinks, fashion, home gifts, health & beauty, toys and sports. • Buying online is also increasingly becoming an habit for most categories although still most popular for digital products, such as movies, video games, music, high and green tech. • In Portugal, physical stores are still the preferred channel, however online is increasing its’ role as an alternative channel, even for more traditional category as food & drinks, online shopping increased from previous year 3% to 12% in 2015, whereas for all other categories online shopping is above 20%. • The possibility to order online in a physical store is also increasing: it allows the customer to ask questions and receive advice in-store and to receive the product directly at home. For companies, it means that their inventories can be reduced and better managed. This option is already used by more than 10% of European consumers in a wide range of categories. Portugal Europe Leisure 31% 4%3% 75% 10% Leisure 40% Music 31% 4% 2% 74% 11% Music 46% Video Games 30% 6% 2% 74% Books 30% 5%2% 80% Movies (DVD/Blu Ray) 29% 5% 2% 73% High tech 25% 5% 2% 79% Green tech 25% 4% 3% 76% 13% 9% 8% 2% 54% 10% High tech 44% 14% 11% 2% 53% Books 44% Movies (DVD/Blu Ray) 49% 12% 14% 7%3% 66% 11% 8% 2% 53% 9% 4% 57% Green tech 39% 14% 8%3% 57% 13% 4%7% 80% 9% Health & beauty 31% Sports 22% 5%4% 81% 11% Sports 34% 7%3% 70% 12% Fashion 22% 4% 8% 84% Fashion 33% 7%5% 74% 11% 8% 10% 6% 4% 71% Toys 22% 3%2% 84% 9% Toys 38% Home gifts 21% 4%3% 85% 8% Home gifts 33% 6% 3% 73% 10% Gift boxes & cards 20% 5% 2% 81% Gift boxes & cards 32% 7% 3% 67% 10% 8% 6% Mobile commerce 7% 4% 71% Food & drinks 15% 4%2% 82% Mail order catalogues In Physical Stores 4 5 6 7 13% Health & beauty 23% Online Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 8% 3% 63% Video Games 47% 12% 12% Food & drinks 12%3%1% 90% 62 3 11% 7% Ordering online in a physical store 8 The weight of online on year-end festivities shopping. 1 2 The weight of internet shopping is in constant progression since 2011, although the growth has slowed down between 2014 and 2015. 3 Europe 4 5 • The UK is the country where internet is the most used for shopping (48%). Also in Germany and Poland internet accounts for more than 40% of gifts spending. 6 7 • Portugal with 15% of gifting internet shopping is the European country with largest room for improvement. 8 25% 27% 33% 37% 37% 48% 32% 15% 26% 27% 26% 46% 20% 25% 32% 40% 23% 20% 20% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% UK 63 France Portugal Spain Italy Greece Germany Belgium The Denmark Netherlands Poland 2011 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey Russia 2012 Slovenia 2013 2014 South Africa 2015 To what extent do you use physical stores as a showroom, visit a physical store to see and compare the products (price) and then buy them via internet? 1 In Europe results are similar to previous year: 24% of consumers visit physical stores as showrooms frequently, while 51% do it from time to time. 4 • In Portugal, the use of physical stores as a showroom increased compared to previous year, only 28% of consumers claim they never used physical stores as a showroom, whereas already 30% claim they always or often do it. Portugal 31% 28% Never 5 6 43% 19% Often 7 25% 3% 5% 8 Europe 24% 25% Never 51% 51% Sometimes 20% 20% Often Always 64 5% 4% 2014 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 3 47% Sometimes Always 2 2015 You stated that you will be going online. Please state for each option mentioned below if you will or will not be using them for searching and/ or comparing products. Search engines are still the most popular tool amongst European and Portuguese consumers, to search and compare products. Portugal 92% 90% 95% Search engines 3 92% 92% 93% Websites of brands/ suppliers • The use of social media remains a significant growing trend, being listed by nearly half of European users and 70% of Portuguese as a way to search for and compare products. Online shops (with one or more offline stores) 88% 90% 93% Online shops (with one or more offline stores) Online shops (without offline stores) 83% 86% 88% Online shops (without offline stores) Comparison sites 88% 83% 85% Comparison sites Email newsletter and online leaflet I receive via email 82% 83% 82% 84% 85% 80% Websites with coupons and offers Social media (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) Foruns and blogs 56% 63% 70% 55% 60% 59% 6 7 92% 91% 92% 8 87% 88% 90% 84% 84% 84% 66% 69% 69% 77% 77% 78% Websites with coupons and offers Foruns and blogs 5 86% 86% 87% Email newsletter and online leaflet I receive via email Social media (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) 4 91% 92% 93% Search engines Websites of brands/ suppliers 43% 47% 49% 50% 55% 55% 2013 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2 Europe • Online shops, with or without offline stores, are also used by around 90% of e-shoppers both in Portugal and in Europe. 65 1 2014 2015 You stated you will be using social media. Below please indicate how you will be using social media. When using social media, large majority of consumers still prefer searching for information rather than sharing their point of view. Portugal 1 2 3 Europe To check prices 85% 6% 10% To check prices 77% 4 12% 12% 5 • Large majority of Portuguese consumers use social media to check prices (85%), browse products (84%), find discounts (82%) and find ideas (81%), well above European average. To browse products 84% 6% 10% To find discounts, coupons, sale 82% information 5% 13% To research gift ideas 81% To obtain trusted comments, 76% recommendations from costumers To check what gifts family/friends 68% want On retailer’s fan page 59% 66 9% 11% 9% 15% 7% 25% 8% 33% To browse products 76% 6 To find discounts, coupons, sale 74% information 12% 14% To research gift ideas 75% 13% 12% To obtain trusted comments, 73% recommendations from costumers To check what gifts family/friends 66% want On retailer’s fan page 63% I look for information Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 13% 11% I give my opinion/advice 15% 12% 13% 20% 14% 23% None of these two 7 8 Have you ever used your smartphone to buy a product and do you expect to use it in the future for buying products? M-commerce keeps showing a steady growth year-byyear. The average European shopping penetration rate using mobile to do shopping is 41% this year compared to 39% in 2014 and 26% in 2013. 1 2 3 Europe 4 5 41 39 26 • UK is in the lead of smartphone shopping penetration with 52% and Belgium is the most conservative country with 25%. % % % 6 7 8 52% UK 67 32% France 35% Portugal 48% Spain 47% Italy 40% Greece 49% Germany 25% Belgium 39% 43% The Denmark Netherlands 38% Poland 43% Russia 32% Slovenia 2013 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2014 47% South Africa 2015 Have you ever used your smartphone to buy a product and do you expect to use it in the future for buying products? M-commerce’s growth potential is still far from it’s limit in most countries with exception of UK, Italy, Germany and Denmark. 1 2 3 Europe 4 5 47% • Portugal is the country that has the highest intention of using a smartphone for future shopping with 61%, compared to European average of 47%. 6 41% 7 8 61% 52% 48% 50% 46% 43% 32% 57% 57% 47% 45% 35% 58% 57% 50% 49% 40% 39% 40% 32% 43% 38% 38% 47% 43% 32% 36% 25% UK 68 France Portugal Spain Italy Greece Germany Belgium The Denmark Netherlands Poland Russia I already have Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey Slovenia South Africa I will do in the future If a product is not available on the online store you are usually shopping, what would you most likely do first? 70% of European customers and 58% of Portuguese would look for an alternative online if they cannot find a product on their favorite website. • Only 3% of European customers and 1% of Portuguese would not continue shopping for the product, which shows the efficiency of the omni-channel strategy for companies. The different shopping options indeed allow the customer to carry out his shopping process until the end even if the product is not available on one of the channels. 1 2 3 Portugal 4 Go online to another online store 33% Go online to another website (search engine, price comparison...) 25% 6 Go to a physical store of a different chain 16% Go to a physical store of the same chain Would not continue shopping for the product 5 7 24% 8 1% Europe Go online to another online store 40% Go online to another website (search engine, price comparison...) Go to a physical store of a different chain Go to a physical store of the same chain Would not continue shopping for 3% the product 69 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 30% 13% 14% If a product was not available on the physical store you are usually shopping, which would you mostly do first? There is a certain level of loyalty to physical stores for customers who use this channel to shop a product. Indeed, 39% of European customers would go to another location of the same chain or ask to a store assistant if another location has the item when a product is not available in their preferred shop. • 21% of customers would continue shopping on other chains physical stores. • In Portugal, physical store loyalty is even higher than in Europe, as 48% of consumers claim that they will go to another location of the same chain or ask a store assistant if another location has the item. 70 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey Portugal 1 2 3 Europe Go to another location of the same chain or ask to a stores assistant if another location has the item 48% Go online to the same store’s website 16% Go to another store of a different chain Go online to another website (search engine, price comparison...) Go online to another store’s website 20% 8% 2% Would not continue shopping 5% for the product 4 Go to another location of the same chain or ask to a stores assistant if another location has the item 39% Go online to the same store’s website 21% Go to another store of a different chain 21% 6 7 8 Go online to another website (search engine, price comparison...) Go online to another store’s website 5 11% 3% Would not continue shopping 4% for the product 1 2 Physical stores 3 4 5 6 7 8 71 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey For the gifts you intend to buy in stores, where do you think you will buy your gifts? For Christmas 2015, the preference remains the same in all European countries except for Spain and Russia. 2014 1 2 3 2015 4 5 • In Portugal it remains the preference for traditional department stores. 6 • In Spain hypermarkets and supermarkets lost market share against traditional department stores. In Russia specialty chains gain market share to department stores. 7 8 • The preference remains the same for France and Italy where hypermarkets/supermarkets still occupy the first position since 2012 in terms of buying gifts. 72 Traditional department stores Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey Speciality chains Hypermarkets/supermarkets For the gifts you intend to buy in stores, where do you think you will buy your gifts? Specialty chains are still the most important channel for European consumers to buy gifts although hypermarkets/ supermarkets gain ground. 1 2 Portugal Europe 49% 45% 44% Traditional department stores • In Portugal: • Traditional department stores are top ranked but decreased weight compared to previous years, whereas speciliaty chains gained ground. Specialty chains Specialty chains Hypermarkets/ supermarkets 19% 22% 21% Hypermarkets/ supermarkets 6% 7% 6% Traditional local shops Luxury stores • For all other categories, traditional department stores are the key channel. 5 30% 29% 31% 6 22% 25% 27% 7 13% 13% 12% 8 3% Factory outlet stores 3% 3% 6% Factory outlet stores 5% 4% • For sports the most relevant channels are specialty chains. 4 29% 28% 24% Traditional department stores 19% 21% 23% Traditional local shops • Hypermarkets/supermarkets are by far the most important channel for food & drinks shopping. 3 3% 2% Luxury stores 3% 1% 1% 1% 2013 2014 2015 Portugal 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Books 73 Music Movies (DVD/Blu Ray) Video games Traditional department stores Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey High tech Green tech Luxury stores Health & beauty Food & drinks Hypermarkets/supermarkets Gift boxes & cards Home gifts Speciality chains Sports Fashion Traditional local shops Leisure Toys Factory outlet stores For the food you intend to buy for the year-end festivities, where do you think you will buy your food? Same as last year, a majority of European countries intend to buy food in hypermarkets and normal sized supermarkets for the year-end festivities. 2014 1 2 3 2015 4 5 • Poland is still an exception since 2012 compared to the other European countries: Hard discount stores remain their most favorite physical store channel to buy food. 6 7 8 74 Normal sized supermarkets Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey Hard discount stores Hypermarket sized shops For the food you intend to buy for the year-end festivities, where do you think you will buy your food? Hypermarket and supermarket are the favorite stores for most European consumers for food shopping as in previous years. 1 2 3 Potugal 4 5 • In Portugal, hypermarkets are by far the most important channel followed by supermarkets. 6 • Convenience stores are the less preferred retail format to buy food, however its importance increased from 1% in 2014 to 5% this year. 7 8 83% 80% 74% 65% 71% 61% 48% 39% 40% 32% 37% 29% 8% 9% 8% Hypermarket sized shops 75 Normal sized supermarkets Hard discount shops Traditional food shops* Internet shopping 8% 7% 8% Luxury boutiques *like the butcher, the baker, etc Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2013 1% 1% 5% Convenience stores 2014 2015 As a consumer, what are your expectations towards interactions with store assistants? European consumers are expecting competence and pleasant contact when it comes to interactions with store assistants. • 62% of European and 67% of Portuguese consumers expect store assistants to be knowledgeable about products sold in the store. Giving details and advice are the added value customers look for when they buy in physical stores. • 44% of European consumers and 55% of Portuguese are also looking for a welcome attitude from the store assistants: its relevant because it shows how important the human contact still is at the age of internet. Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2 Portugal 3 Europe 4 Be knowledgeable about products 67% Greet me promptly with a welcome attitude 55% Let me know about discounts/offers 44% Assist me finding gifts 25% Has the ability to match any other retailer’s prices 20% Help me pay quickly Offer me home delivery option 18% Be knowledgeable about products 62% Greet me promptly with a welcome attitude 6 41% Assist me finding gifts 28% Has the ability to match any other retailer’s prices 26% Help me pay quickly Offer me home delivery option None of these 7% None of these 5 44% Let me know about discounts/offers 8% Assist me about e-commerce 5% 76 1 28% 11% 8% Assist me about e-commerce 7% 7 8 1 2 Assessments of retailers 3 4 5 6 7 8 77 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey Which channel responds most adequately to your following shopping needs? E-commerce and physical stores channels fulfill different needs, online and offline channels complement each other. • For Europeans, e-commerce is a better way to know the consumers’ opinion on products, to compare prices and products, for home delivery and to shop whenever they want. • In Portugal: 51% of people perceive as a top advantage of the digital channel the possibility to know consumers opinion on products; 49% of people perceive that prices can be compared more easily thanks to the digital channels; Home delivery and price level are also key main attributes to consumers favor e-commerce shopping; When choosing offline stores consumers appreciate the possibility to return products, professional advice and after sales service. 3 Europe 1% Possibility to know the consumers opinion on products 60% 7% 31% 1% 1% Prices can be compared easily 60% 7% 32% 1% 1% Home delivery 57% 1% Price level 54% 4% 54% Information on availability of products (in stock) 50% 40% 5% 55% Shopping when I want 56% Products can be compared easily 38% 4% 58% Products can be compared easily 56% Broad assortment 38% 3% 59% Broad assortment 52% It’s easy to search for and choose what I need 35% 4% 61% It’s easy to search for and choose what I need 54% Shopping saves time 32% 4% 63% 1% Shopping saves time 49% Quality of product information 32% 3% 64% 1% Quality of product information 42% Delivery times of products 31% 4% 64% 1% Delivery times of products 39% 17% 3% 79% 1% 15% 4% 80% 1% Pleasure while shopping (nice experience) Protection of my personal datas (ID, adress,consumer behaviour…) I immediately get the products I purchased Possibility to know the consumers opinion on products 51% Prices can be compared easily 49% Home delivery 45% Price level 42% 3% 55% Information on availability of products (in stock) 41% Shopping when I want 4% 44% 4% 46% 4% 50% 17% 2% 80% 6% 35% 6% 39% 1% 6% 42% 1% 8% 34% 6% 37% 7% 38% 7% 43% 5% 52% 6% 54% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 25% 5% 69% 1% 25% 5% 69% 1% 28% 5% 66% 4% 70% 1% 1% 24% Possibility to easily exchange or to 10% 2% 88% return products Possibility to easily exchange or to return products 22% After sale services (repair) 10% 3% 87% After sale services (repair) 20% 4% 74% 1% Competent and professional advice 20% 4% 75% 1% 14% 2% 83% Competent and professional advice 9% 3% 88% 1% E-commerce M-commerce 4% 73% In physycal stores 5 6 7 1% 1% 6% 41% 4 2% Safety in respect of payment Safety in respect of payment Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2 Portugal Pleasure while shopping (nice experience) Protection of my personal datas (ID, adress,consumer behaviour…) I immediately get the products I purchased 78 1 1% Teleshopping 8 Which channel responds most adequately to your following shopping needs? Same as last year, for e-commerce the Top 10 didn’t change. We still find as 1st position the possibility to know the consumers’ opinion on products. • Internet is also chosen as the best way to compare prices easily due to multiple website choices. Home delivery and convenience are the last main arguments mentioned by consumers in favor of e-commerce shopping. • For stores, the top 3 rank evolved in comparison with last year. European consumers value professional advice they get from vendors for 76% of them, this answer has improved since last year coming from 3rd to 1st position. European consumers also value after sales services. The possibility to easily exchange or to return products has decreased, coming from 1st to 3rd rank. 1 2 Portugal 4 E-commerce 2015 2014 Possibility to know the consumers opinion on products 1st 51% 1st 60% Prices can be compared easily 2nd 49% 2nd 57% Home delivery 3 rd 46% rd 3 56% Price level 4th 42% 6th 47% Information on availability of products 5th 41% 8th 44% Shopping when I want 6th 40% 4th 48% Products can be compared easily 7th 38% 5th 47% Broad assortment 8th 38% 7th 45% It’s easy to search for and choose what I need 9th 35% 9th 42% 10th 32% 10th 38% Quality of product information Stores 2015 Competent and professional advice 1st 88% 2nd 88% Possibility to easily exchange or to return products 2nd 88% 1st 89% After sales services 3rd 87% 3rd 88% Safety in respect of payment 4th 83% 4th 87% I immediately get the products I purchased 5th 80% - - Pleasure while shopping 6th 80% 6th 81% Protection of my personal datas 7th 79% 7th 80% Quality of product information 8th 64% 9th 60% I can get the products I purchased quickly 9th 64% 5th 81% 10th 63% 8th 62% Shopping costs little time 79 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 3 2014 5 6 7 8 Which channel responds most adequately to your following shopping needs? M-Commerce is still marginal in terms of responding adequately to consumers’ shopping needs, although is increasing its importance. • The Top 10 rank follow the same trend as last year. The main strength of this channel is convenience to shop whenever consumers wish. 1 2 Portugal 4 M-commerce 2015 Shopping when I want 1st 5% 1st 4% Possibility to know the consumers opinion on products 2nd 4% 2nd 4% Shopping costs little time 3 rd Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2014 4% Information on availability of products 4th I can get the products I purchased quickly th 2% 4% 3rd 4% 5th 4% 9th 2% Prices can be compared easily 6th 4% 6th 3% Home delivery 7th 4% 5th 3% I immediately get the products I purchased 8th 4% - - It’s easy to search for and choose what I need 9th 4% 12th 2% 10th 4% 8th 2% Products can be compared easily 80 3 11 5 6 7 8 You stated that you bought online gifts last year, were the online ordered gifts delivered on time last year (2014)? You mentioned that the gifts you ordered online last year were not delivered on time. In what way does it affect your buying behaviour this year? 91% of the customers who took this survey say their orders for Christmas 2014 were delivered on time, 2 points more than last year. • 9% of them declared that the delivery was delayed. Among these 9%, only 38% remain convinced by the advantages of e-commerce and will choose to order earlier the next time. 1 2 3 Portugal 4 11% 9% 89% 91% 5 6 7 8 Yes No 2013 2014 I will buy online, but at an earlier stage 38% I will not buy gifts online this year 27% I will buy in stores this year I will buy online, but I will pick up the product in the physical store myself It will not affect my buying behaviour 3% 81 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 19% 13% Which area would you expect retailers to invest in, in order to improve your shopping experience? In order to improve their shopping experience consumers would like to see retailers investing on Lower prices, customer relationship and better integration of both offline and online channels. Portugal Lower prices 2.7 Customer relationship (advice…) 1.5 1.4 Provide online services in store 1.3 Provide the advantages of physical stores to online stores 1.2 Home delivery Self scanning check outs Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 2 3 Europe Better integration of physical and online store 82 1 1.0 0.8 Lower prices 2.6 Customer relationship (advice…) 1.5 Better integration of physical and online store Provide the advantages of physical stores to online stores 1.3 1.3 Home delivery 1.1 Provide online services in store 0.9 Self scanning check outs 0.9 0.9 WIFI capabilities in store 0.7 Online store Environmentally friendly 0.7 Environmentally friendly Child care 0.7 WIFI capabilities in store 0.8 0.7 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 Survey methodology 3 4 5 6 7 8 83 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey Survey methodology 1 2 Deloitte realized this survey about the consumption during year-end period in 14 countries from Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and in South Africa, and included 14,065 consumers. A similar survey is conducted in Canada, in the United States and in Latin America. • The conclusions of this survey are based on consumer data which have been collected during a survey realized by Deloitte. • In Portugal, the fieldwork was executed between September 28th and October 5th of 2015. • Respondents are aged 18 to 65 years old. Information has been collected via Internet, with a structured questionnaire for a sample of individuals, within controlled panels. • Each consumer in the panel is identified by panellist firms through the following aspects: • Socio-demographics, • Personal interests, • Consumer behaviour. • To adjust the Internet sample to the population of each country, we used ex-post statistical weighting. The weighting is based on gender and age in each country. 84 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 3 4 5 6 7 8 Participating countries 1 2 3 14 countries 4 14,065 consumers interviewed in total United Kingdom France Portugal 1 727 761 Belgium 818 5 The Netherlands 797 6 Denmark 760 Spain 1 541 Poland 766 Italy 1 643 Russia 838 Slovenia 766 South Africa 804 Greece Germany 85 771 502 1 571 Deloitte 2015 Christmas survey 7 8 Contactos Para mais informações, contacte-nos: Luís Belo Partner Consumer Business Tel: +351 210 427 611 Fax: +351 210 427 950 [email protected] Nuno Netto Associate Partner Consumer Business Tel: + 351 210 422 525 Fax: +351 210 427 950 [email protected] “Deloitte” refere-se a Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, uma sociedade privada de responsabilidade limitada do Reino Unido (DTTL), ou a uma ou mais entidades da sua rede de firmas membro e suas entidades relacionadas. A DTTL e cada uma das firmas membro da sua rede são entidades legais separadas e independentes. 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