This article was downloaded by: [Eduardo Vasconcellos] On: 06 July 2012, At: 13:12 Publisher: Taylor & Francis Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UK International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/nics20 Road safety impacts of the motorcycle in Brazil Eduardo Alcântara de Vasconcellos a a Instituto Movimento, Rua República do Iraque 1605, ZIP 04611-003, São Paulo, Brazil Version of record first published: 04 Jul 2012 To cite this article: Eduardo Alcântara de Vasconcellos (2012): Road safety impacts of the motorcycle in Brazil, International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, DOI:10.1080/17457300.2012.696663 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17457300.2012.696663 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Full terms and conditions of use: http://www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and-conditions This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. 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International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion 2012, 1–8, iFirst article Road safety impacts of the motorcycle in Brazil Eduardo Alcântara de Vasconcellos* Instituto Movimento, Rua República do Iraque 1605, ZIP 04611-003, São Paulo, Brazil Downloaded by [Eduardo Vasconcellos] at 13:12 06 July 2012 (Received 16 March 2012; final version received 16 May 2012) Brazil has had high indices of traffic injuries and deaths since the 1950s, mostly related to the increasing and irresponsible use of the automobile. Upon approval of the Brazilian Transit Code (CTB) in 1997, traffic injuries and deaths began to diminish, despite an increase in vehicle fleet size, a phenomenon that had never occurred previously. Concurrently, starting in 1991 and with a great intensity after 1996, there has been a sizeable increase in motorcycle production and use, facilitated and encouraged by public officials. Between 1995 and 2000 annual sales figures for motorcycles doubled and reached 2 million units in 2008. Traffic deaths associated with motorcycles increased exponentially, rising from 725 in 2006 to 10,143 in 2010, eliminating the advances gained by the CTB in reducing auto-related injuries. This article analyses the process and its impacts on road safety. The first part summarises the main public policy decisions related to the theme. Part two analyses changes in traffic safety after the introduction of this new technology. Part three looks at the possible political, economic and social motives that lie behind this process. The final part suggests solutions to the great prejudice caused to society and the nation. Keywords: transport in developing countries; motorcycles; transport technology and risk; traffic safety 1. The expansion of motorcycle use in Brazil The automobile industry was established in Brazil in 1956 and is currently one of the largest in the world with production of 3 million vehicles in 2007, the majority of which (80%) were automobiles. Motorcycles were not economically relevant until the 1990s, when processes of liberalisation and privatisation were initiated. In 1990, Brazil had 20.6 million vehicles on the road with only 1.5 million motorcycles (Denatran, 2011; IBGE, 2000). Some motorcycles were made in the country and others imported from the USA or Japan. They were mainly used by people from higher income brackets for leisure. When the process of economic liberalisation was sparked in 1994, Brazil began to coexist with powerful forces of deregulation and privatisation – associated with intense changes on the global scale – that profoundly affected the country and the manner in which its resources were distributed. In the area of public transportation, illegal operators with inadequate vehicles spread out extraordinarily quickly and threatened the survival of the regulated public transportation system. In the area of private transportation, federal government policies supported the popularisation of the use of a new technology – the motorcycle – *Email: [email protected] ISSN 1745-7300 print/ISSN 1745-7319 online Ó 2012 Taylor & Francis http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17457300.2012.696663 http://www.tandfonline.com which began to be used intensely for document and small merchandise delivery in the big cities, especially the most congested ones like São Paulo. The fleet of 1.5 million motorcycles in 1991 rapidly increased to 5 million in 2002, reaching 14 million in 2010. In São Paulo City the number of motorcycles increased from 50,000 in 1990 to 245,000 in 2001 and 750,000 in 2009 (Denatran, 2011). Sales figures for vehicles in the internal market reveal the force of the phenomenon (Figure 1). Between 1992 and 2007 motorcycle sales increased by 12 times, while car sales increased fourfold. Internal motorcycle sales reached 1.5 million in 2007 while automobile sales reached roughly 2 million (Abraciclo, 2012; Anfavea, 2012). There is a high probability that annual motorcycle sales figures will surpass those of automobiles during the next few years. 2. How motorcycles are used 2.1. A new user enters traffic Contrary to what occurred in Asian countries, where the motorcycle has been a part of traffic for more than 50 years and in many cases is the most used 2 E.A. de Vasconcellos technology in traffic. This phenomenon represented the transformation of Brazilian traffic towards an ‘Asian’ pattern. Downloaded by [Eduardo Vasconcellos] at 13:12 06 July 2012 Figure 1. Automobile and motorcycle sales in Brazil, 1990– 2008. Source: Abraciclo (2012) for motorcycles and Denatran (2012) for automobiles. vehicle, it was relatively unknown by most Brazilians until 20 years ago. The traffic environment in Brazil was historically formed by pedestrians, bicyclists, trucks and buses with the automobile entering from the 1930s forwards (accelerating in popularity during the 1960s). When the motorcycle arrived in the 1990s it had to make its own space in traffic. Struggling against automobile users the motorcyclists – especially the delivery drivers called ‘motoboys’ – created a group identity of an anthropological nature. This group began to use internal solidarity as a factor of cohesion and defence against what it considered to threaten its participation in traffic. This phenomenon led to aggressive behaviour against automobile drivers involved in collisions with motorcyclists, generating frequent violent reactions. Since the majority of first-time motorcyclists had never driven an automobile, their comprehension of the visibility limits faced by automobile drivers was limited, increasing their risks of circulation even further. Consequently, motorcyclists developed a negative vision of automobile drivers which served to consolidate their group solidarity. The fact that many car users today prefer to avoid circulating near motorcyclists proves that the strategy of intimidation has been a success. This unsafe behaviour has had legal backing. During the long discussions about the new Brazilian Transit Code that took place between 1992 and 1997, one of the main proposals referring to the circulation of motorcyclists was to ban their movement between lanes of moving cars. This proposal was vetoed by the president. Motorcyclists also generated another type of dispute for space that did not occur previously in Brazilian traffic – that with pedestrians. The greater speed of the motorcycle and the unpredictable behaviour of its drivers in snaking between vehicles greatly increased the safety risks of pedestrians who were unaccustomed to this type of 2.2. Profile of the user The association that represents the motorcycle industry informs that the majority of the purchases (80– 85%) are made by men, with 83% being younger than 40. The majority of users (90%) live in urban areas and the majority of them (75%) use the motorcycle to commute to work or school (www.abraciclo.com.br). A significant part of consumers substitute public transportation for the motorcycle, due to lower costs or the poor quality of public transportation in their cities. Recently, middle class people have been purchasing motorcycles to avoid congested traffic in large towns. This means that they exchange a safe means of transportation for a less safe one, in addition to using the motorcycle in additional trips, due to its low operational costs. One important aspect is that most buyers (80%) pay in instalments or purchase through consortium which greatly facilitates acquisition of the vehicles. Poor households (with monthly income up to USD 636) concentrate 80% of the motorcycle fleet (IBGE, 2009). 2.3. Delivery services A large part of the new motorcycles are used in delivery services, mainly in the cities with large levels of congestion, like São Paulo (the ‘motoboys’). In this case a convergence of interests has occurred: that of the needs for rapid merchandise delivery and new employment opportunities for youth. Since the job market for youth with low education levels has low wage levels and continues to shrink, this new activity is an attractive alternative. This opportunity is strengthened by the disposition of these youth to take risks, which is further increased by a lack of enforcement of traffic laws. One essential aspect to understand their behaviour is connected to the working conditions of the motoboys: they are paid according to production: the concrete result is a veritable army of mostly male youth crossing the city at high speeds, snaking between cars and buses to arrive quickly at their destinations. The level of disrespect for traffic laws is very high, mainly through excessive speed, dangerous conduct, lack of respect for stoplights, leaving the stopped position without paying attention to pedestrians who are still crossing the street and the use of sidewalks to manoeuvre around vehicles that are stopped in traffic. Although the quantity of equipment for monitoring speed and stoplights has increased greatly in the country – directly lowering the number of injuries 3 International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion Downloaded by [Eduardo Vasconcellos] at 13:12 06 July 2012 and deaths – the motoboys escape punishment easily, simply covering their licence plates with their hands as they race through radar traps or red lights. 2.4. Motorcycle taxis Motorcycles are also used as taxis, legally and illegally, to transport passengers. Following the example of clandestine collective transportation, the motorcycle taxi encountered fertile territory in the new climate of deregulation and was supported by many politicians and public officials. The problem with security of transportation is normally neglected: there is no training for conductors and people who never used a motorcycle receive a helmet and sit on the passenger seat. These services are now offered in 90% of the country’s towns and 50% of the major cities (IBGE, 2009) charging a fixed value similar to that of a bus or a value of R$1–R$2 where this service does not exist (in towns of less than 50,000). 3. Traffic safety and motorcycles in Brazil The percentage of motorcycles in the total number of transit fatalities in Brazil rose from 2.1% in 1996 to 19.4% in 2006. The distribution of fatalities by type of user has changed dramatically in the period. While the participation of pedestrians diminished from 70% to 38% the participation of motorcyclists rose from 4% to 27%, practically equalling the participation of passengers of other vehicles (mainly automobiles; MS, 2011). Table 1 reveals that the number of fatalities with motorcycle users rose 13-fold, from 725 in 1996 to 9268 in 2009 (and to 10,143 in 2010 – see Table 2). Their share in the total number of fatalities increased from 2.1% to 24.9%. The number of accumulated fatalities Table 1. between 1996 and 2010 caused by the increase in motorcycle usage is 65,041. If we consider an annual natural increase in motorcycle deaths of 2% (if the fleet increases in accordance with historic patterns) the conclusion is that the accelerated process of its introduction into Brazilian traffic has caused 59,620 additional deaths in the period, a cost inadmissible in any society (Figure 2). Table 2 shows that the index of fatalities for motorcyclists rose by 50% during the period of 1998– 2006, a characteristic marking the increase of violence in the use of road space. 3.1. The case of the city of São Paulo São Paulo is the largest city in the country, with 11 million inhabitants. It was selected as an example because it has experienced the most dramatic changes in the pattern of traffic safety among large cities in Brazil, originated by the exponential increase in the number of motorcycles and the escalating use of motorcycle to deliver goods in a congested road system. In 2007, the number of fatalities with motorcyclists significantly surpassed (by 66%) the total number of fatalities with passengers of other vehicles, for the first time in the history of the city. The fatality rate of motorcyclists has only not surpassed those occurring with pedestrians (Table 3). Among the fatalities with motorcyclists in 2007, one may say that: . 40% fatalities occurred without the interference of any other vehicle; . 28% of fatalities occurred with motorcyclists travelling between vehicle lanes; . Among the fatalities, 37% were motoboys working in the delivery of goods; Traffic fatalities per transport mode, Brazil, 1996–2009. Year Pedestrian Cyclist Motorcyclist Vehicle occupanta Totalb % motorcycles 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 12,952 12,500 11,227 9,886 8,696 9,720 9,947 9,991 10,166 10,261 10,147 9,657 9,474 8,799 326 426 396 555 789 1,008 1,240 1,263 1,389 1,515 1,668 1,649 1,615 1,573 725 956 1,280 1,583 2,465 3,100 3,744 4,271 5,042 5,935 6,970 8,078 8,898 9,268 4,273 4,280 4,133 5,183 6,084 6,672 7,228 7,408 8,412 8,188 8,660 8,932 9,017 9,063 35,281 35,620 30,890 29,569 28,995 30,524 32,753 33,139 35,105 35,763 35,875 37,076 37,965 37,251 2.1 2.7 4.1 5.4 8.5 10.2 11.4 12.9 14.4 16.6 19.4 21.8 23.4 24.9 Notes: A: automobiles, buses, trucks; B: includes fatalities with unknown transport modes. Source: MS (2011). 4 E.A. de Vasconcellos . Motorcycles were involved in 22.8% of fatal pedestrian crashes and were responsible for the deaths of 85 pedestrians (10% of the total); . Motorcycles were involved in 34.5% of fatal crashes with vehicular occupants and . Finally, 92% of the people killed in motorcycles were less than 39 years old. Downloaded by [Eduardo Vasconcellos] at 13:12 06 July 2012 4. Social costs of the use of motorcycles The social costs associated with the use of motor vehicles is related to death and injury to people, pollution generated by the use of fuel, the generation of a barrier effect – when the circulation of vehicles prejudicates the social relations of residents – and congestion (Vasconcellos, 2002). In the specific case of the motorcycle, congestion is not the main factor due to the diminished size of the Table 2. Rate of deaths in motorcycles per motorcycle fleet, Brazil, 1998–2006. Year Fatalities Fleet (1,000 s) Fat./10,000 veh. 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1,280 1,830 2,465 3,100 3,744 4,271 5,042 5,935 6,970 8,078 8,898 9,268 10,143 2,542 3,020 3,550 4,025 4,945 5,332 6,079 6,934 7,898 11,071 12,995 14,599 16,394 5.0 6.1 6.9 7.7 7.6 8.0 8.3 8.6 8.8 7.3 6.8 6.3 6.2 Sources: MS (2011) and Denatran (2011). vehicle. However, the other three impacts – road safety, pollution and the barrier effect – are relevant. Pollution is relevant because the type of motorcycle that was allowed by federal authorities in the country is highly polluting. The motorcycle that has been used in Brazil since 1994 emits more pollutants per passenger-km than with Brazilian cars (ANTP, 2008), with new regulations on permitted emissions for pollutants in new motorcycles sold in the country only established in 2006 (the Programa de Controle da Poluição do Ar por Motociclos e Veı́culos Similares). The barrier effect can occur due to the higher speed of the motorcyclists – causing great danger for pedestrians and bicyclists – and the noise that they cause. But the impacts of fatalities and injuries to people are the most grave and for this reason are prioritised in this text. The data analysed come from the database of the Ministry of Health (MS DATASUS, www.saude. gov.br). It is important to emphasise that although this data has a good national representation it does not cover all the traffic safety events that happened in the country. In order to better understand the phenomenon, in the first place the marginal impact of the entrance of new motorcycle technology in Brazilian traffic was estimated. During 2000 and 2006 there were 31,566 fatalities and 169,846 hospitalisations in the main public health system. During the period, the annual impact of every 1000 new motorcycles circulating was 1.24 fatalities and 3 hospitalisations. This means that one additional death was produced for each 809 new motorcycles sold and one hospitalisation for each 366 additional motorcycles circulating. It is relevant to mention that the quantity of hospitalisations could be greatly underestimated due to the characteristics of the hospital system and the behaviour of people when crashes occur. Figure 2. Brazil – traffic fatalities, actual figures with exponential increase of the motorcycle fleet and estimated figures with a natural increase in the motorcycle fleet, Brazil, 1996–2010. Source: MS (2011), adapted by the author. 5 International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion Table 3. Traffic fatalities in São Paulo, selected years. Fatalities Fatalities/100,000 people Year Pedestrian Auto Motorcycle Total Pedestrian Auto Motorcycle 1970 1980 1991 1997 1999 2004 2006 2007 2010 1,011 1,580 1,593 1,109 862 703 734 736 630 182 750 1,033 712 576 347 289 281 200 16 60 114 221 245 318 380 466 478 1,209 2,390 2,740 2,042 1,683 1,368 1,403 1,483 1,308 17.1 18.6 16.5 10.9 8.3 6.8 7.1 7.1 6.0 3.1 8.8 10.7 9.2 7.9 3.3 2.8 2.7 1.9 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.2 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.5 4.6 Downloaded by [Eduardo Vasconcellos] at 13:12 06 July 2012 Source: Laurenti, Guerra, Baseotto, and Klincervicius (1972) for 1970 data and CET (2008) for the other years. Secondly, the grave and fatal cases were calculated and their costs were estimated using a methodology of analysis created by IPEA/ANTP (2002). The additional road safety crashes caused by motorcycles resulted in costs for Brazilian society that reached R$5.3 billion during the period of 1998–2006. This value corresponds to R$1400 per motorcycle in circulation during the period analysed, representing 25% of the average cost of a new motorcycle.1 5. Social and political factors behind the phenomenon 5.1. Economic gains in the industry With the federal government’s political and financial support the Brazilian motor vehicle industry was able to open a new and greatly significant area of business. Annual motorcycle sales figures rose from R$0.7 billion in 1995 to R$7.5 billion in 2007, reaching 20% of the value of car sales. The accelerated increase of this industry was initially supported by the liberalisation of imports in 1991. Later, the federal government and some state governments gave tax benefits for producers. The most relevant case from the economic perspective is that of Honda Motors, which produces 80% of the motorcycles in the country and which opened a factory in the duty free zone in Manaus. In 2006 this company sold 1,018,000 motorcycles and earned R$5.9 billion. The tax benefits to the industry were estimated at R$1.47 billion, corresponding to 25% of sales (Folha de São Paulo, 2007). Following this model, new brands of motorcycle are being established in Manaus. These measures, connected to authorisation for sales by consortium, have made the motorcycle very accessible to interested consumers with monthly instalments averaging around R$200. 5.2. Public sector interests and ideology The history of motorcycle use around the world and of its poor performance in terms of traffic safety is widely known in technical circles. A large number of studies on the subject have already been published. This knowledge is based on the experiences in Asia as well as wealthy European nations and the United States. All of these studies show that the motorcycle is the most dangerous motorised vehicle that exists, as much in function of its physical characteristics as its disadvantages compared to larger and heavier vehicles such as automobiles, buses and trucks (World Health Organization, 2004; World Bank, 1995). Studies that have been conducted in Brazil for two decades prove that the motorcycle produces a number of injuries per case superior to other vehicles and that the injuries inflicted on its passengers (as well as on pedestrians who are run over) are much more grave that those inflicted, for example, on the passengers of an automobile (Koizumi, 1992). A study conducted in 2002 showed that while 7% of the cases involving automobiles caused victims of some kind, the number increased to 71% in the case of motorcycles. For this characteristic, the average cost of a motorcycle crash was 53% above the average cost of an automobile one (IPEA/ANTP, 2002). Consequently, whether due to the international experience of over 50 years or the Brazilian experience which has been well documented, there is no admissible excuse that can be used by any government to facilitate or support the use of motorcycles without taking very special precautions. In the case of Brazil, the main motives behind the irresponsible position of the public authorities in the rapid and unrestricted acceptance of the motorcycle were the ideas that industrialisation is something good in itself and that the motorisation of society is a sign of progress. Concurrently, the increase in the use of the motorcycle was associated in a demagogic manner with the ‘liberation’ of the poor, the guarantee that these social groups finally would have access to motorised vehicles. This tragic form of populism lies behind the measures that were adapted. This posture, taken during the national planning of the Partido da Social Downloaded by [Eduardo Vasconcellos] at 13:12 06 July 2012 6 E.A. de Vasconcellos Democracia Brasileira party during the 1990s, continued with the Partido dos Trabalhadores party without any significant change. This ideological force is so pervasive in society that even important public transportation bodies have been carried away by it, in an autophagic movement.2 This movement has had even more dramatic consequences, due to the low level of education of the Brazilian population – which effects its capacity to gather and interpret information – as well as the ignorance of people in relation to existing risks, due to the lack of information, to the competent advertising that idealises the motorcycle and due to the silence of the industry in relation to the safety problems with the vehicle. The motorcycle industry always avoids discussing the lack of security of its product and tries to disconnect itself from a negative image.3 This behaviour imitates the other producers of goods that damage people – like the tobacco and alcohol industries – and uses the same biblical hand-washing, saying that it ‘sells what the public wants’. The industry conveniently forgets that in the actual liberal sourcebook about consumer society, the universalisation of complete information about products is one of the essential pillars to guarantee that which the sourcebook denominates as ‘free choice of free consumers’ (Bayliss, 1992). It also conveniently forgets that motorcycles are not housing tools that may be controlled by the owner; they have to share road space with other, much larger vehicles, inside a traffic environment full of dangerous conflicts that motorcyclists cannot control. Such characteristics are similar to those found in most developing countries, where democratic institutions and citizenship are often weak, with profound impacts on road safety for the most vulnerable (Vasconcellos, 1995). 6. Recommendations The international literature is full of recommendations on how to improve motorcycle safety (OECD, 2008; WHO, 2004). Brazil is still dealing with the problem and few good solutions have already been adopted. In the case of delivery services the most promising actions seem to be the redefinition of working conditions to avoid undue pressure on productivity by the contractor and the mandatory training of ‘motoboys’ on safer driving habits. The definition of exclusive lanes or spaces may also to be considered; however experiments in the city of Sao Paulo have shown that the impact of these lanes on safety was less than optimum, because of behaviour factors that were difficult to predict at first (CET, 2011). Safety can also be improved significantly reducing speed limits and preventing motorcycles from driving close to large vehicles. The definition of higher age levels to receive a motorcycle driver licence could also be very positive. Finally, a better enforcement programme is essential, especially in relation to speeding and helmet use. In the case of middle class people who shifted to motorcycles, the only way of getting them back to previous modes is to provide for adequate walking and cycling conditions and for comfortable and efficient public transport services. 7. Conclusion When we analyse the history of transportation in Brazil it becomes clear that the irresponsible adaptation of streets and cities for intense automobile use during the period of 1960–1990 brought enormous prejudices to security, health and the quality of life. The transportation environment in Brazil became insecure and hostile to the more vulnerable users like pedestrians and bicyclists, generating an enormous quantity of traffic safety events. This first phase of motorisation was characterised by the appropriation of road space by selective groups with access to the automobile and with power to pressure the public sector responsible for transportation. One of the most negative consequences of this process was that nearly 1 million people died in traffic between 1960 and 2000. We now see a second phase, characterised by the accelerated and irresponsible introduction of a new technology – the motorcycle. The most relevant point in relation to the first phase is that now social groups supported by the public sector have lower income levels than the earlier groups, dividing themselves, in the majority, between the lower-middle class and the lower classes. Although this second phase of motorisation has occurred in an environment of formal democracy (contrary to the first phase) the historically constructed ignorance in the heart of society remains the same, opening space for demagogic proposals and opportunism based on populism and irresponsible rhetoric. The motorcycle, as occurred with the automobile 50 years earlier, is habitually treated as symbols of progress and ‘liberty’ and the evident risks of its use are treated as ‘destiny’, ‘divine will’ or ‘the inevitable price of progress’. The expansion of motorcycle use in Brazil following the process of economic liberalisation of the 1990s was represented by the increase of the national fleet from 2 million in 1992 to 14 million in 2011. The gravest consequence of the entry of this new technology was the exponential increase in the number of injuries and fatalities of motorcycle passengers. The question that arises naturally from these facts is, ‘why would a society allow itself to be hurt in this International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion Downloaded by [Eduardo Vasconcellos] at 13:12 06 July 2012 manner?’ Among the factors that determined the implantation of this process that has had such negative consequences, the most relevant are: (1) Allowing circulation of motorcycles between lanes of traffic in movement within an environment of very dangerous circulation, behaviour which is worsened by the case of the motoboys; (2) The Federal Government’s opening of the motorcycle market through high levels of tax benefits and facilitation of purchasing, which permitted sales through reduced monthly instalments making purchase rapidly more attractive; (3) The lack of attention to preparation of a safer circulation environment despite all of the internationally and nationally accumulated experience that clearly shows the vulnerability of the motorcyclist and the highly elevated index of crashes associated with the use of this vehicle; (4) The industry’s greed related to the unconditional increase in production and profit without clarifying the high danger levels related to motorcycle use to the public; (5) Public officials demagogic populism associating the increase in motorcycle use of the motorcycle with notions of ‘progress’, ‘job generation’ and ‘liberation of the poor’, without considering the high personal and road safety costs associated with its use; (6) Inaction of the government in relation to truly effective control of motorcycle use, aggravated by the ease of which the driver can avoid enforcement of traffic laws; (7) The Brazilian public’s low education level which limits its possibilities to obtain and interpret information on political processes that condition government actions and (8) A collective irresponsibility in demanding rapid merchandise delivery, ignoring the fact that this demands highly unsafe conditions for the workers in this sector. In the history of humanity there are many examples of the use of dangerous products and the existence of precarious work conditions that have to show their grave damage before society mobilises to change the situation. These processes occur as a raw form of natural selection, killing or gravely injuring millions of people until changes in technology, in the product or in the behaviour of people soften the negative impacts. In this manner these processes exert an enormous cost to society until the effects are reduced and the people prejudicated can no longer be compensated. The expansion of motorcycle use in Brazil has the same tragic characteristics of natural selection similar to 7 what occurred with the automobile in the middle of the past century. In a path that is nearly always taken, the producer of a inherently dangerous product refuses to admit the existing danger and manages to avoid that its product is evaluated by society, frequently supported by the inaction of the government, by interested economic parties or by difficulties of the people to understand what is occurring or what could happen to them. The alternative to this vision is based on the fact that the production of knowledge about the processes enables us to anticipate problems and, therefore, reduce their impact. In this manner we can avoid the process of natural selection and change to a civilised process of coexistence. When we try to respond to the difficult question, ‘why does a society let itself be hurt in this manner?’ the answer is that the negative consequences of this process can be explained in three words: populism (government and politicians), greed (industry) and ignorance about the real risks (not prevented by the government or the industry). Due to the many decades of accumulated knowledge regarding the fragility of the motorcycle there is no excuse for public authorities to permit the introduction of this new technology in the country without taking proper precautions. Unfortunately, dozens of thousands of Brazilians have already died or suffered incapacitating injuries and many will continue to suffer from this as the size of the fleet continues to greatly increase to the point where it will soon surpass that of automobiles. Considering the historic tendencies, the accumulated number of motorcycle fatalities will reach the 100,000 mark by 2014, which speaks for itself. The extremely negative consequences of this process can only be alleviated when we mature as a society and deal with the irresponsibility that pervades the actions that allowed this to happen. Acknowledgments This article was originally part of a larger study on transportation policy in Brazil, undertaken by Instituto Movimento with support from the Volvo Educational Foundations. Notes 1. 2. Considering an average fleet during the period of 3.7 million motorcycles at an average value of R$5330 for a new motorcycle. The São Paulo Metro, considered by the majority of its users (as well as in the international technical community) as having high quality, has displayed advertising for purchasing motorcycles inside its stations for a long time. Initially this was in the form of pamphlets advertising the advantages of the motorcycle (‘buy a motorcycle for less than R$2 a day and you would already be in your CE: PS PG: padmavathym 2/7/12 21:01 8 3. NICS_A_696663 2008 – Style 4 (USA4) RefSty-(A APA) E.A. de Vasconcellos ‘‘home’’ station’). The opening of space evolved in 2007 to the point where they allowed stands with motorcycles and salespeople inside Paraiso metro station. 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