Institutionalizing Proactive Drought Policy and Management in Brazil
Nathan Engle, Climate Change Adaptation Specialist, World Bank &
Erwin De Nys, Senior Water Resources Specialist, World Bank
2014 Symposium: Drought – In the Life, Cultures, and Landscapes of the Great Plains
Plenary Session 4: The Global Context for Drought in Similar Environments: Case Studies
April 3, 2014
World Bank – Water and Climate Change in Brazil

Lending vs. Knowledge vs. Policy vs. Convening

Federal AND state lending and technical assistance

Long history and many current programs to strengthen management of
water resources at the national and sub-national level
– Federal Water Resources Management Project (PROAGUA)
– Low Income Sanitation Technical Assistance Project (PROSANEAR)
– Ceará Integrated Water Resources Management Project – PROGERIRH
– Ceará Sustainable Rural Development Project and emergency response plans

Interaguas to improve the capacity of key government water sector
institutions to coherently design and implement water policies and prepare
investment plans (including technical exchanges)

Climate change adaptation plan

Water security strategy
Progress in Brazil
Households with Adequate Water Supply in Ceará state, 2000 vs. 2010
World’s Drylands
While many associate drought principally with the world’s
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources
drylands, DROUGHT occurs in virtually ALL climate
regimes
Recurrent Droughts

Officially 73 year-long or multi-year droughts registered in the Northeast

Current in the Northeast since 2012 is the worst in the past 50-100 years

Significant losses of cattle and agriculture (heritage breeds, genetic diversity)

Likely to get worse in the immediate term and long term
Climate Change Scenarios for Northeast Brazil
Impact on Reservoirs – March 2013
Dams with more than 50% of water stored
at 10th of March 2013
Dams with less than 50% of water stored at
10th of March 2013
Source: Hydrological Website (FUNCEME and COGERH) 10th
March, 2013, http://www.hidro.ce.gov.br/
Impact on Reservoirs – March 2014
Dams with more than 50% of water stored
at 25th of March 2014
Dams with less than 50% of water stored at
25th of March 2014
Source: Hydrological Website (FUNCEME and COGERH) 10th
March, 2013, http://www.hidro.ce.gov.br/
Shaping the Institutional and Political Landscapes

Extremely dry winter for Southeast Brazil
– Economic heart of the country
– Main reservoir system, Cantareira, dropped to below 14% capacity last week;
same time last year was at nearly 62%
– Poor long-term planning for droughts (and growth) in this region
– São Paulo/Rio de Janeiro “water wars”?

Cupa do Mundo

Opportunity to get the attention of decision makers at a nationwide level
World Bank’s Approach to DRM
Three Pillars of Drought Preparedness
Drought Preparedness
Program’s Framework

Three Pillars
– Monitoring, early warning, and prediction
– Vulnerability/resilience and impact assessments
– Mitigation and response planning and management

Two levels in parallel
Level 1 – Dialogue on National Drought Policy
Level 2 – Northeast Regional Pilot Project(s)
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-
Northeast Drought Monitor (MSNE – acronym in Portuguese)
-
Drought Preparedness Plans at multiple scales (river basin committee,
cities’ water supply companies, and rural rainfed agricultural communities)
Federal Drought Institutional Mapping
Instituições
Mapeamento Institucional
MI
MMA
MDA
MDS
MPOG
ANA
MCTI
BNB
MD
MME
MF
CPRM
CHESF
MF geral
CEDEC
INMET
INPE
EMBRAPA CPTEC
INPA
CEMADEN
1. Monitoramento, Previsão e Alerta Precoce
SEDEC
CENAD
MAPA
Secretaria
Geral da
Presidênci
Casa Civil
COMDEC
a
da
República
ANA
BNB geral
2. Avaliação do Impacto, Vulnerabilidade e Resiliência
3a. Planejamento e
Medidas de Mitigação
(Pré-Emergência)
3. Planejamento e Medidas de Mitigação e
Resposta
3b. Planejamento e
Medidas de Resposta
(Emergência)
SUDENE MMA geral
SEDEC
ANA
DNOCS
SIH
SDR
CODEVASF
SUDENE ANA
SEDEC
DNOCS
CODEVASF
MDA geral
MI Grupo
de
Trabalho
Garantia
Safra
Bolsa
Estiagem,
Políticas e medidas específicas
Operação
Carro Pipa
MPOG
geral
Programa
Um Milhão
de
Cisternas
CONAB
BNB geral MD geral
Casa Civil Secretaria COMDEC CEDEC
geral
Geral (com (com MD e (com MD e
Casa Civil) MI)
MI)
MI Grupo
de
Trabalho
Força
Nacional
de
Emergênci
a
Comitê
Integrado
de
Combate à
Seca
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National Drought Policy Dialogue

Ministry of National Integration leading a series of consultation workshops in
the Northeast from in March & April, 2014

11 states (3-4 at time) culminating in a regional seminar in Fortaleza, Ceará

Discussing issues such as:
1. Relevance and goals of a national drought policy
2. Functions and responsibilities of various institutions involved in drought management
3. Monitor de Seca do Nordeste (MSNE) and the associated network
4. Financing drought policies and management
5. Drought preparedness plans
6. Measures to mitigate long-term risk and structural issues
7. Drought committees/councils and communicating drought risk and responsesle
CEMADEN
CPTEC INMET
EMATERS
ANA
INTEGRAÇÃO DA BASE DE DADOS
FUNCEME +
CENTROS
ESTADUAIS
SEC. DE
AGRICULTUA
Validação com
Atores Locais
MAPA
AGRICULTURA
INTEGRAÇÃO DA
BASE DE DADOS
METEOROLOGIA
ANA
CEMADEN
RECURSOS
HÍDRICOS
AGÊNCIAS ESTADUAIS DE
ÁGUAS
INTEGRAÇÃO DA BASE DE DADOS
MSNE is the Anchor (Conversation Starter)

Helping to convene a transparent and open forum for the Northeast

Develop a process for systematically monitoring, forecasting, and
reporting/verifying droughts and their impacts

Links with national policy dialogue and the drought preparedness plans
A. Planning group
B. Validation group
C. Dissemination group and network
D. Federal, state, and local authorities
MSNE’s Role in Institutionalization – Feedback Loop

Workshops: Build the network, capacity, and excitement/momentum

Training: U.S. (NDMC) & Mexico (Conagua/Met Service), March 2014

Institutional and operational designs: Link federal -> regional -> state ->
local interests around something tangible to help pave the way for
broader reforms (NIDIS-like vision)

Robust monitoring and evaluation

Next steps:
– Prototype in June
– Validation and capacity building phase June-December
– Operational Monitor in 2015
17
MSNE Experimental Map
18
Drought Preparedness Plans

Grounded in the three pillars framework

Diverse community types (i.e., river basin planning, urban water
management, and rural rainfed agriculture)

Operational

Illustrate utility and examples of “what could be”
– Templates, tools, and methods
– Benefit-cost analysis of proactive planning for droughts, robust decision making,
vulnerability assessments

Link with other World Bank programs
Drought Preparedness and Climate Change Resilience
[email protected]
[email protected]
Typical Drought Management
“Se você fizer o
que sempre fez,
terá os mesmos
resultados de
sempre”
“Nós DEVEMOS
adotar um novo
paradigma de
gestão da seca!”
Don Wilhite, University of
Nebraska, Lincoln
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