International Workshop on Addressing the
Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and
Climate Services
BELO HORIZONTE
JULY 2010
Luiz Cláudio Costa ([email protected])
Universidade Federal de Viçosa
The people of South America are heavily
dependent on the continent natural
resources-from the range lands at the
foothills of the Andes, to the plants and
animals of the Amazon rainforest, to the
fisheries off the coast of Peru.
The
region’s
ecosystems
are
particularly vulnerable to the changes in
water availability expected with a
changing climate.
Higher global temperatures along with
more frequent El Niño may bring
increased drought, and melting glaciers
in the Andes threaten the future water
supply of mountain communities.
and coral bleaching.
Source: http://www.climatehotmap.org
Source: http://www.climatehotmap.org
WHAT HAS HAPPENED?
Fingerprints
Source: http://www.climatehotmap.org
Some of the events are direct manifestations of a widespread and long-term trend toward
warmer global temperatures, as already documented and projected to continue by models of
a changing climate.
•Recife,
Brazil - Sea-level rise. Shoreline receded more than 6 feet (1.8 m) per year
from 1915 to 1950 and more than 8 feet (2.4 m) per year from 1985 to 1995. The
dramatic land loss was due to a combination of sea-level rise and loss of sediment
supply following dam construction, harbor dredging, and other coastal engineering
projects.
•Andes Mountains, Peru - Glacial retreat accelerates seven-fold. The edge of the Qori
Kalis glacier was retreating 13 feet (4.0 m) annually between 1963 and 1978. By 1995,
the rate had stepped up to 99 feet (30.1 m) per year.
•Chiclayo, Peru - Large increase in average minimum temperatures. Average minimum
temperatures along Peru north coast increased 3.5°F (2°C) from the 1960s to 2000.
The temperature in the high plateau region in extreme southeastern Peru has also
risen 3.5°F (2°C), from an average of 48°F (9°C) in the 1960s to 52°F (11°C) in 2001.
Northwestern South America has warmed by 0.8-1.4°F (0.5-0.8°C) in the last decade of
the 20th century.
•Tropical Andes (Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and northernmost Chile) - Increase in average
annual temperature. Average annual temperature has increased by about 0.18 F
(0.1°C) per decade since 1939. The rate of warming has doubled in the last 40 years,
and more than tripled in the last 25 years, to about 0.6°F (0.33°C) per decade.
Source: http://www.climatehotmap.org
FINGERPRINTS - Continuation
•Argentina -
Receding glaciers. Glaciers in Patagonia have receded by an average of
almost a mile (1.5 km) over the last 13 years. There has been an increase in maximum,
minimum, and average daily temperatures of more than 1.8°F (1°C) over the past
century in southern Patagonia, east of the Andes.
•Venezuela - Disappearing glaciers. Of six glaciers in
the Venezuelan Andes in 1972,
only 2 remain, and scientists predict that these will be gone within the next 10 years.
Glaciers in the mountains of Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru show similar rapid rates of
retreat. Temperature records in other regions of the Andes show a significant warming
of about 0.6°F (0.33°C) per decade since the mid-1970s.
Source: http://www.climatehotmap.org
IPCC
Three major challenges for South America
•Salinization and desertification of areas for agriculture;
•Risks of flooding in low-lying coastal areas and displacement in the stocks of fish;
•Significant changes in water availability.
Major problems predicted
•Savannization the eastern Amazon,
•Change the pattern of rainfall in western
density and more frequent fire;
•The aridização the semi-arid;
•Expansion of pests on agricultural
Chile;
Amazonia, with the decline of forest
production in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and
•Trends of declining rainfall in southern Chile and Peru and southwestern Argentina;
•Increase of water supply and power in Bolivia, Peru, Colombia and Ecuador in the
decrease of glaciers of the Andes;
•Frequent floods in the delta of the Parana River and the West Coast of the River
Plate;
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OCCURRENCES - NEWS ON NATURAL DISASTERS IN SOUTH AMERICA
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Cerca de 370 mil pessoas são atingidas pela chuva no Sul ‐27/04/10 ‐ (Globo.com)
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Chuva causa deslizamentos e 3 morrem em Alagoas ‐ 01/05/09 ‐ (Terra) Tremores deixaram 'danos significativos' em Rancagua, diz presidente do Chile ‐ 11/03/10 ‐ (G1 Globo)
Rio de Janeiro tem 44 mortos por causa das chuvas que atingiram o Estado ‐ 01/01/10 ‐ (Folha Online) Chuvas voltam a atingir a região Sul e duas cidades decretam emergência ‐ 28/09/09 ‐ (Folha Online) Defesa Civil acredita em tornado no Sul ‐ 28/09/09 ‐ (Diário Catarinense) RS tem 180 famílias desalojadas por causa da chuva ‐ 12/09/09 ‐ (Zero Hora) Chuvas acima da média em todas as regiões do Estado ‐ 10/09/09 ‐ (Paraná Online) Confirmados mais dois tornados em Santa Catarina ‐ 09/09/09 ‐ (Diário Catarinense)
Mais de 72 mil pessoas em 45 municípios foram afetadas por temporal em Santa Catarina ‐ 09/09/09 (Diário Catarinense) Chuvas prejudicam 664 mil em 6 Estados no Nordeste e Norte do Brasil ‐ 01/05/09 ‐ (Folha Online) Mais de 3 mil pessoas tiveram que deixar suas casas por causa da chuva em SC ‐ 23/04/09 ‐ (Diário Catarinense) Chuvas de verão já mataram 200 pessoas em seis estados ‐ 15/02/09 ‐ (Gazeta do Povo) Chuva mata pelo menos 11 em Minas e continua causando muitos estragos ‐ 18/12/08 ‐ (hojeemdia.com) Inundaciones convierten a las cenizas del Volcán Chaiten en cemento ‐ 15/05/08 ‐ (26noticias.com.ar)
Ciclone provoca morte, destruição e inundações ‐ 04/05/08 ‐ (MentSul)
Granizo destelha casas em Curitiba e Campo Largo ‐ 29/04/08 ‐ (Gazeta do Povo)
Chuvas deixam mais de 130 mil pessoas fora de casa no Norte e Nordeste; mortos chegam a 36 ‐ 09/04/08 ‐ (UOL)
Tres millones y medio de ecuatorianos afectados por inundaciones ‐ 22/02/08 ‐ (El Universo)
Começa Operação Humanitária em apoio às vítimas das enchentes na Bolívia ‐ 01/02/08 ‐ (FAB‐ Sala de Imprensa)
Source: Centro de Apoio Científico em Desastres ‐ CENACID
OCCURRENCES - MAPPING
2007
Source: Centro de Apoio Científico em Desastres ‐ CENACID
AGRICULTURE
• Studies in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Uruguay based on general
circulation models (GCMs) and crop models project decreased yields in several
crops (e.g., maize, wheat, barley, grapes), even when the direct effect of carbon
dioxide (CO2) fertilization and the implementation of moderate adaptation measures
at the farm level are considered.
• It is likely that increases in temperature will
shortening the crop cycle. However, the lack
precipitation scenarios makes it difficult to
production under climate change, even
precipitation and crop yields are well known.
reduce crop yields in the region by
of consistency in the various GCM
have a precise scenario for crop
when the relationships between
• Increased temperature, ultraviolet radiation, sea-level rise, and changes in pest
ecology may threaten food production as well (e.g., in Argentina). Climate change
may reduce silvicultural yields as a result of changes in water availability during the
dry season.
upscaling
Complexity
Data availability
Experimentation
400
CO2 (ppm)
300
200
100
100
Organic C (t C ha-1)
Centuries
80
60
40
20
Soil organic carbon
8
0
7
Decades
6
LAI
5
4
3
2
1
Pgross (mg CO2 m-2 s-1)
Crop LAI
0
1.2
Years
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Leaf photosynthesis
0
Days
Atmospheric
0
Temporal delineation
CO2
Climate Change and Agriculture
Extrems
Regional Models(RGCMs)
Climate change scenarios
Global Climate model(GCMs)
CO2
temperature
Adaptation
Crop Growth Model /
Experiments
Economical
Models
Environmental
Social
Economical
impact
Experiments
CO2 enhancement, maize and beans yields
Obrigado
Experiments
Results CO2 Fertilization
48.00
46.00
‐2
mmol.m .s
‐1
44.00
42.00
40.00
38.00
36.00
34.00
32.00
30.00
Primeira medição
T1
T1 700 ppm
T2 380 ppm
T3 Open
T2
Segunda medição
T3
Beans
2020
Climate
2050
2080
Maize
2020
Climate
2050
2080
Spatial distribution Maize – Maranhão State
kg/ha
PD (%)
2.000
-30
4.000
-22
6.000
-14
8.000
-6
10.000
+2
12.000
(A)
Estimates of real
productivity
+10
Drop(B)
in the productivity
accordint to the A2
scenario