REPÚBLICA DE MOÇAMBIQUE
MINISTÉRIO DA PLANIFICAÇÃO E DESENVOLVIMENTO
NATIONAL VISION OF
DEVELOPMENT
The Exercise to set a National
Development Strategy
Tangier, September of 2012
PRESENTATION STRUCTURE
I.
CONTEXTUALIZATION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING IN
MOCAMBIQUE
1. EARLY AFTER INDEPENDENCE (1975)
2. ACTUAL VISION OF DEVELOPMENT
3. FUTURE VISION
II. PLANNING INSTRUMENTS
1. TODAY
2. FUTURE
CONTEXTUALIZATION OF STRATEGIC
PLANNING IN MOCAMBIQUE (1)
1. Early After Independence (1975)
• Centralized Economy (1975-1986)
– PPI (Prospective Indicative Plan)
• The market economy approach (free market –Bretton
Wood Institutions) - were designed structural
adjustment plans (PAIs)
– PRE (Rehabilitation Economic Plan)
– PRES (Social and Economic Rehabilitation Plan)
CONTEXTUALIZATION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING
IN MOCAMBIQUE (2)
2. Actual Vision of Development
The AGENDA 2025
• Not a vision of emergence (it is a way for)
• But a national vision of development which had:
– Participatory process (community engagement and communication)
– Identification of priorities
– Characterization of the development of the country
– Presentation of the vision of the development sceneries:
• Goat Scenario
– of increased corruption, intolerance, social exclusion and possible return to war
– Determined by variables whose has implications for the future deterioration of
the conditions of Peace, Stability and Social policy.
• Crab Scenario
– Each actor walk In zigzags (going as fast forward as backward),
– causing crises, followed by moments of slow and tenuous recovery
– simulating the consequences that arise changes in determining Democracy and
Participation.
CONTEXTUALIZATION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING
IN MOCAMBIQUE (3)
2. Actual Vision of Development (2)
• Scenario Tortoise
– Some factors grow more than others (unbalancing growth)
– still prevail large asymmetries and inequalities.
– Took as a starting point the improvement of competitiveness and Technological
Transformation
• Bee Scenario
– inclusion, unity, tolerance, maximum use of the capabilities harmony and
consistent growth.
– hypothesises that the performance of the determinant variables (Peace and
Stability Social Democracy and Participation and Competitiveness and
Technological Transformation are positive
– There is a significant increase in the variables (Human Capital and Social
Capital)
• Desirable Scenario
– Focalised in internal and at external level
With a vision of Mozambique as Entrepreneur ship Country and Continuum
Success
Future Vision - ENDE (10 Years)
Scenario 1: Current Situation 7-8%
•
•
•
•
Economic growth at the current rate and
based on current conditions
Coal is explored in the current base
Agriculture growing at natural rates
(historical), including other sectors
Maintenance of the structure of the
economy
Scenario 3: Growth Accelerated much
(10-14%)
•
•
•
Exploration of coal and gas (Extractive
Industry)
Gains from the exploitation of natural
resources invested for construction of
public infrastructure (Cooridors, rail ways
and Ports, Roads, Bridges and Dams)
Agriculture oriented large export projects
Scenario 2. Accelerated Growth (8-10%)
•
•
•
Additional services and manufacturing
industry in growth
Gradually increasing agricultural
productivity
Improvement of infrastructure linked to
other sectors including mining (coal, and
natural gas)
Scenario 4. Growth in 5-8%
Service-oriented economy and
infrastructure:
• Transport and communications
• Tourism
• Other
6
PLANNING INSTRUMENTS: TODAY
MDG
NEPAD
Agenda 2025
PROGRAMA QUINQENAL DO GOVERNO
PROGRAMAÇÃO DE MÉDIO PRAZO
Plano de Acção de Redução da
Pobreza Absoluta (PARPA)
Afectação
prioritária de
recursos
PLANOS OPERACIONAIS ANUAIS
PLANO ECONÓMICO E SOCIAL
(PES)
Harmonização da
política e estratégia
sectorial
Planos Estratégicos Sectoriais &
Provinciais
Integração
da política e
estratégia
sectorial
Integração dos
Objectivos e
metas
+
Coordenação no
processo de
monitorização
Enquadramento dos
recursos e afectação
inter-sectorial
Cenário Fiscal de Médio Prazo
(CFMP)
Integração dos
Objectivos e metas
sectoriais
Cenáro macro e
sectorial
Consistência da
orçamentação com
acções e objectivos
de política
Limites de
Despesa
Limites para investimento
recursos internos e externos
Plano Trienal de Investimento
Publico (PTIP)
Orçamento de
Investimento
ORÇAMENTO DO ESTADO
(OE)
PLANNING INSTRUMENTS: FUTURE
REPÚBLICA DE MOÇAMBIQUE
MINISTÉRIO DA PLANIFICAÇÃO E DESENVOLVIMENTO
Tangier, September of 2012