SEMINÁRIO DE GEOPOLITICA DA ENERGIA
SALA DA CONGREGAÇÃO DO IRI
14 DE AGOSTO DE 2014
Professor Ildo Sauer
Graduate Program on Energy
Director of the Institute of Energy and Environment
University of Sao Paulo
February 14th, 2014.
KEY ISSUES ON WORLD OIL STRATEGY :
 Energy appropriation essential roles in Humanity’s revolutions:


Agriculture “domesticated” photosynthesis via plants and animals;
Industrial revolution relied on tapping stocks: first coal, then oil…
 Role of energy appropriation: enhance productivity of socially
organized labor, hence allow for economic surplus or rent (well above
average profits);
 RESOURCE CONTROL AND RENT EXTRACTION:
 1960: OPEC founded to secure rent for producers:
 Oil reserves control: 85% IOCs; 14% USSR; 1% NOCs;
 1973 and 1979 Oil Shocks failed
 2010: 6% IOCs; 6% Russians; 88% NOCs;
 2005 price escalation sustained;
 2013 Oil demand 85 MM bbl/d (±30 billions bbl/year);
 surplus of US$ 2.5-3 trillion
 Compare: World GDP of ±US$80 trillion (surplus ±10%, US$8
trillions)
 OECD+CHINA x OPEC+RUSSIA strategic war on oil price and access
Prof. Ildo Sauer - University of Sao Paulo
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2010
NEW “SEVEN SISTERS”, Financial Times:
●
Saudi aramco (S. Arabia)
JSC Gazprom (Russia)
●
CNPC (China)
NIOC (Iran)
●
PDVSA (Venezuela)
Petrobras (Brazil)
●
Petronas (Malasia)
STRATEGIC DISPUTE: ACCESS TO RESOURCES AND RENT CAPTURE
Source: Aker Solutions London Technology Day, Set/2010.
Ildo Luís Sauer Universidade de São Paulo
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•Intrinsic oil characteristics - thermodynamics: low entropy, high
availabitity to produce work;
• Oil net energy balance: 1:100 – 1:30
– ETHANOL (sugarcane): 1:8
– BIODIESEL 1:1 to 1:7
• Economic consequences : cost US$1-15/barrel.
- Market price around US$100. Surplus of US$85 – US100/bbl.
- Economic rent/surplus under dispute on all camps(ideological,
political, economical) among States and Companies.
• World Economic System : 30 billions bbl/yr - rent US$ 2.5- 3
trillions/yr, on World GDP of US$80 trillions and surplus of est. US$8
trillions.
Fonte: Agência Internacional de Energia “Resources to Reserves”, 2010
Ildo Luís Sauer Universidade de São Paulo
Today: Coal;
Future: Nuclear ,
Renewbles (?)
Fuente: Alvarez, 2000
4
Oil prices last 30 years
Average WTI, Brent & Dubai Fateh
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economy, our country, and our planet is so high. Not when your generation needs us to
get this right. It is timeto do what we can to secure our energy future.”
President Obama, March 30, 2011
BLUEPRINT FOR A SECURE ENERGY
FUTURE
March 30, 2011
Table of Contents
I. Introduction
II. Executive Summary
III. Develop and Secure America’s Energy Supplies
Expand Safe and Responsible Domestic Oil and Gas Development and
Production
Lead the World Towards Safer, Cleaner, and More Secure Energy
Supplies
IV. Provide Consumers with Choices to Reduce Costs and Save Energy
Reduce Consumer Costs at the Pump with More Efficient Cars and
Trucks
Cut Energy Bills with More Efficient Homes and Buildings
DEVELOP AND SECURE AMERICA’S ENERGY
SUPPLIES
Lead the World Towards Safer, Cleaner, and More
Secure Energy Supplies:
“Working with Global Partners to Increase Oil Production and Secure Additional Reliable
Supplies: Over the course of the last year, the U.S. and Mexico have been working
together to develop a transboundary agreement that would facilitate the safe and
responsible development of offshore oil resources near our common border. During his
March 2011 visit to Brazil, Presidents Obama and Rouseff agreed to work as strategic
energy partners to the benefit of both countries, including in the safe development of the
vast oil and gas resources in pre-salt prospects in Brazil’s Outer Continental Shelf.”
Building Strategic Relationships with Oil Producers: First, we will follow through on the
initiatives we have already begun with Mexico where we expect to complete the
transboundary agreement before the end of the year and with Brazil, where the
opportunities for the use of U.S. drilling and containment technology are abundant,
especially in the deepwater pre-salt play. We will also continue our contributions to the G20’s Global Marine Environment Protection initiative which is designed to facilitiate the
sharing of best practices with respect to safety and environmental protection during
offshore drilling and production. Finally, we will continue our work assisting other
countries develop their resources in a efficient, safe, and transparent manner while
protecting the environment.
V. Innovate Our Way to a Clean Energy Future
Harness America’s Clean Energy Potential
Win the future through Clean Energy Research and Development
Lead by Example: The Federal Government and Clean Energy
Ildo Luís Sauer Universidade de São Paulo
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March 9th 2007
Prof. Ildo Sauer - University of Sao Paulo
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Brazilian Energy Sector
Overview
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Brazil
Area: 3,287,597 sq mi (5th in the world)
Population: 201,032,714 (5th in the world)
GDP (ppp): $2.523 trillion (7th economy in
the world)
Institute of Energy and
Environment, University of
São Paulo – IEE-USP
Established Lab: 1901, Institute: 1941
GDP per capita (ppp): $ 12,528 (79th in the
world)
Primary Energy Consumption: 11.3
Quadrillion Btu (9th in the world)
Primary Energy Consumption per
capita: 57.7 Million Btu (109th in the world)
Source: US EIA & Wikipedia, 2014.
Prof. Ildo Sauer - University of Sao Paulo
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November 14th 2009
September 26th 2013
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KEY ISSUES IN BRAZIL ENERGY SECTOR
 PRE-SALT RESESERVES NOT QUANFIFIED, REGULATY MODEL STIL BEING
QUESTIONED;
 POLITICAL DISPUTE ON ECONOMIC RENT OF OIL AND HYDRO POWER SECTORS:
 Shareholders, want market prices to improve profits;
 Consumers, want lower prices,
 People, owner of the resource according the Constitution, should extract rent for public education, health
services, housing, social priorities, etc.
 However, Government, the “broker” has imposed arbitrary illegal price controls and allowed overpriced supply
contracts favoring its economic and political supporters;

SEVERE IMPACTS ON BIOFUELS (ALWAYS DEPENDENT ON OIL PRICES, SUBSIDIES
OR INCENTIVES):



Ethanol Programmunder stress, due to gasoline price control, lack of incentives and regulatory instability,
arbitrary policies;
Biodiesel program feasible but inviable;
POWER SECTOR UNDER THREAT OR RATIONING AND EXPLOSIVE SPOT PRICES:


Unsuficient and wrong options for capacity expansion: oil and LNG fired instead of more hydro, wind,
cogeneration (NG and biomass), solar and efficiency .
2013-2014, expected to burn 40 billions R$ (US$17 billions) in thermal power due to low hydrology and bad
expansion options.
 PETROBRAS AND ELETROBRAS MARKET VALUE SUNK
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