6
Referências Bibliográficas
AFONSO, A. Fiscal Sustainability: the Unpleasant European Case.
FinanzArchiv , vol. 61(1): 1-19, 2004.
BACHA, E. O Fisco e a Inflação: Uma Intepretação do Caso Brasileiro.
Revista de Economia Política, vol. 14, nº1 (53): 5-17, 1994.
BEVILAQUA, A. S., & WERNECK, R. L. Delaying Public-Sector Reforms:
PUC-Rio - Certificação Digital Nº 0812372/CA
Post-Stabilization Fiscal Strains in Brazil. Inter-American Development Bank
Working Paper R-321, 1998.
BEVILAQUA, A. S., & WERNECK, R. L.. The Quality of the Federal Net
Debt in Brazil. Texto para Discussão No. 385, Departamento de Economia –
PUC-Rio, 1998.
BICALHO, A. Teste de Sustentabilidade e Ajuste Fiscal no Brasil Pós-Real.
Dissertação de mestrado EPGE-FGV, 2005.
BOHN, H. Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for
the intertemporal budget constraint? Journal of Monetary Economics , 54:
1837–1847, 2007.
BOHN, H. The behaviour of U.S. public debt and deficits. Quarterly Journal of
Economics , 113: 949-963, 1998.
Bohn, H. The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in United States. In: R. Neck, & J.E. Sturm, Sustainability of Public Debt (pp. 15-49). Cambridge, Massachusetts:
MIT Press, 2008.
52
BUITER, W. H., & PATEL, U. R. Debt, deficits, and inflation: An application
to the public finance of India. Journal of Public Economics 47: 171-205, 1992.
BURNSIDE, C. Some Tools for Fiscal Sustainability Analysis. In: C. Burnside,
Fiscal sustainability in theory and practice: a handbook (pp. 35 - 79). Washington,
D.C.: World Bank Publications, 2005.
CAMPBELL, J. & THOMPSON, S. Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of
Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average? The review of Financial
Studies, Vol. 21, No 4: 1509-1531, 2008.
DAVIG, T., & LEEPER, E. M. Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal
Theory. NBER Working Paper No. 11212, National Bureau of Economic
PUC-Rio - Certificação Digital Nº 0812372/CA
Research, 2005.
DICKEY, D., & FULLER, W. Ditribution of the Estimators for
Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American
Statistical Association 74: 427-431, 1979
GIAMBIAGI, F. 18 anos de política fiscal no Brasil: 1991/2008. Economia
Aplicada , vol.12 no.4, 2008.
HAKKIO, G., & RUSH, M. Is the budget deficit "too large?". Economic
Inquiry , Vol. 29 (3): 429-445, 1991.
HAMILTON, J. D., & FLAVIN, M. A. On the Limitations of Government
Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing. The American Economic
Review , Vol. 76, No. 4: 808-819, 1986.
HAUG, A. Has Federal budget deficit policy changed in recent years?
Economic Inquiry, Vol. 33 (3): 104-118, 2007.
53
ISSLER, J. V., & LIMA, L. R. Public Debt Sustainability and Endogenous
Seigniorage in Brazil: Time-Series Evidence from 1947-92. Journal of
Development Economics , Vol. 62: 131–147, 2000.
JOHANSEN, S., Est.imation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors
in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models, Econometrica, 59, 1551–1580,
1991.
JOHANSEN, S., Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector
Autoregressive Models, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995.
KWIATKOWSKI, D., PHILLIPS, P. C., SCHMIDT, P., & SHIN, Y. Testing the
Null Hypothesis of Stationary against the Alternative of a Unit Root. Journal
PUC-Rio - Certificação Digital Nº 0812372/CA
of Econometrics , 54: 159-178, 1992
LIMA, L. R., & SIMONASSI, A. Dinâmica Não-Linear e Sustentabilidade da
Dívida Pública Brasileira. Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico , volume 35
número 2, 2005.
LIMA, L. R., GAGLIANONE, W. P., & SAMPAIO, R. M. Debt ceiling and
fiscal sustainability in Brazil: A quantile autoregression approach. Journal of
Development Economics , 86: 313–335, 2008.
LUPORINI, V. Sustainability of the Brazilian fiscal policy and central bank
independence. Revista Brasileira de Economia. , 54 (2), 2000.
MACKINNON, J. G.. Critical Values for Cointegration Tests, capítulo 13 em
R. F. Engle e C. W. J. Granger (editores), Long-run Economic Relationships:
Readings in Cointegration, Oxford: Oxford University Press. 1991.
MACKINNON, J. G.. Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and
Cointegration Tests Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11: 601-618, 1996.
54
MACKINNON, J. G., HAUG A. & MICHELIS, L., Numerical Distribution
Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests For Cointegration,” Journal of Applied
Econometrics, 14: 563- 577, 1999.
MARTIN, G. US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple
endogenous breaks. Journal of Applied Econometrics , Vol.15 (1): 83-105, 2000.
MELLO, L. D. Estimating a Fiscal Reaction Function: The Case of Debt
Sustainability in Brazil. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No.
423, 2005.
MENDONÇA, M. J., & SANTOS, C. H. Revisitando a Função de Reação
Fiscal no Brasil Pós-Real: Uma Abordagem Mudança de Regime. Texto para
PUC-Rio - Certificação Digital Nº 0812372/CA
discussão do IPEA Nº 1337, 2008 .
NECK, R., & STURM, J.-E. (Eds.). Sustainability of Public Debt. Cambridge,
Massachusetts: The MIT Press, 2008.
PASTORE, A. Déficit público, a sustentabilidade do crescimento das dívidas
interna e externa, senhoriagem e inflação: uma análise do regime monetário
brasileiro. Revista de Econometria , Ano XIV, No. 2, 1994.
PHILLIPS, P., & PERRON, P. Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series
Regression. Biometrika , 75: 335-346, 1988.
QUINTOS, C. Sustainability of the deficit process with structural shifts.
Journal of Business and Economic , Vol.13: 409–417, 1995.
ROSSI, J. W. A Solvência da Dívida: Testes Para o Brasil. IPEA, Texto para
discussão Nº 493, 1995.
SCHWARTZMAN, A. Bond, Federal Bond. Economic Research, Santander
Investment Securities Inc. 2010
55
SMITH, G., & ZIN, S. Persistent Deficits and the Market Value of
Government. Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 6 (1): 31-44, 1991.
TREHAN, B., & WALSH, C. Common trends, the government budget
constraint, and revenue smoothing. Journal of Economic Dynamics and
Control, 12: 425–444, 1988.
TREHAN, B., & WALSH, C. Testing intertemporal budget constraints:
theory and applications to U.S. Federal budget and current account deficits.
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 23: 210–223, 1991.
UCTUM, M., & WICKENS, M. Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability
of Fiscal Policies: An Interetemporal Analysis. Federal Reserve Bank of New
PUC-Rio - Certificação Digital Nº 0812372/CA
York Research Paper No. 9615, 1996.
VELLOSO, R. Uma proposta para acelerar o ajuste fiscal. In: J. P. Velloso,
Brasil: Desafios de um país em transformação. Fórum Nacional, José Olympio
Editora, 1997.
WELSH, I., & GOYAL, A. A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical
Performance of Equity Premium Prediction. The review of Financial Studies,
Vol. 21, No 4: 1455-1508, 2008.
WILCOX, D. W. The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of
the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint. Journal of Money, Credit and
Banking, Vol. 21, No. 3: 291-306, 1989.