Proposta de roteiro
1.
Apresentação (oral) – falar do MAPS/IES-Br? (1 slide)
1. Maps internacional
2. Projeto participativo
3. FBMC, a pedido do MMA
2.
Objetivos do estudo: cenários de longo prazo, 2 cenários (CPG x CMA2), que efeitos queremos estudar
(emprego, PIB, PIB per capita, desigualdade, poder de compra) (1 slide)
3.
Metodologia (Imaclim, figura bottom-up, message, etc.) (2 Slides)
-Descrição Imaclim (modelo híbrido, foco em energia, ano-base 2005), exemplos de medidas
modeladas (ex: etanol, eficiência energética, etc.)
- Slide com aquela figura que mostra a conexão dos modelos que propus na tese e foi usada no IES
4. Resultados
- emprego, PIB, PIB per capita, desigualdade, poder de compra, emissões(???)
5. Conclusões
- A implementação de uma política climática ambiciosa não seria um impedimento para um forte
crescimento econômico alinhado a um grande ganho social (Variações no PIB marginais, tendência de aumento do
poder de compra e redução tb marginal da desigualdade).
Impacts of mitigation policies on labor
markets and welfare
Carolina Grottera and William Wills
July 2015
IES-Brasil project
- A participative process
stakeholder involvement
Academia, companies, government, civil society,
NGOs
- Part of the MAPS initiative
- Brazilian Forum on Climate Change, supported by the
Ministry of Environment
Objective
It aims to analyses the economic and social effects of a variety of GHG
mitigation scenarios in Brazil until 2030
- We will focus on the effects on GDP, employment, income
distribution and purchasing power
MA2 or MA2 + T
CPG
Governmental Planning
Scenario
Mitigation Scenario
vs.
or
Mitigation Scenario
+
US$100/tCO2e carbon tax
Methodology
-
We combine a top-down model, the IMACLIM-BR...
-
-
A hybrid general equilibrium model
Focused on energy
Integrated monetary and physical data
...with sectoral bottom-up models
AFOLU
Energy
Waste
Transport
Industry
There are plenty of mitigation actions available in all sectors
Modeling framework
Industrial Processes
Agriculture, Forestry
& Other Land Use
BLUM
IMACLIMBR
CGE model
LEAP
MESSAGE
Energy
Transport
Waste
CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
During the course of the project, the IES-Brasil team analysed
what might happen, should a carbon pricing strategy be
adopted worldwide. This was explored by considering a
carbon tax on the burning of fossil fuels.
As such, two additional scenarios were simulated:
MA1+T
adopting the same
mitigation measures
as those tested in
MA1 in addition to a
global carbon tax of
US$ 20/tCO2
MA2+T
adopting the same
mitigation measures
as those tested in
MA1 in addition to a
global carbon tax of
US$ 100/tCO2
CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT (GDP)
Trillion US$ (2005 constant)
XX
XX
XX
XX
X
X
X
X
XX
X
XX
X
In the scenarios that do
not consider a global
carbon tax, GDP grows
less than in the CPG
This is due to the reduction
in economic activity: the
highest emitting sectors are
affected by paying the
carbon tax
CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE (%)
The unemployment
rate falls.
This is due to the
hypothesis adopted by
the SBT, that the
revenues from the
carbon tax offset
income tax in order to
stimulate job creation.
This was considered an
appropriate means to
counterbalance the
decrease in economic
activity resultant from
CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION BY INCOME CLASS (BRL
2005 constant)
In the scenarios that consider a global carbon tax,
there is also an increase in the average annual
household income as a result of the increasing
employment rate.
The difference in relation to the scenarios that do
not consider a carbon tax, is that consumption for
Class 3 actually falls slightly in MA2+T, due to the
fact that the richest are more affected by the
adoption of carbon pricing.
CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
INVESTMENT RATE (% GDP)
As in the scenarios that do
not consider a global carbon
tax there is a slight fall in
total investment and the
investment rate.
The reason for this fall is due
to the decrease in global and
national economic activity
due to the carbon tax.
CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
TRADE SURPLUS
Billion US$ (2005
XXX
constant)
XXX
In contrast the scenarios
that did not consider a
carbon tax, where the
trade surplus fell, in
MA1+T the surplus is
comparable to that of
the CPG.
XXX
XXX
XXX
In MA2+T, the trade
surplus almost doubles
in relation to the CPG.
Implementation of a
global tax benefits the
Brazilian industry on
account of its lower
carbon footprint,
increasing it’s
international
CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
(MtCO2e)
In the scenarios that
consider a global
carbon tax there is a
reduction in emissions
when compared to the
CPG, and an increase in
relation to the other
scenarios where GDP is
lower.
SUMMARY OF THE CONCLUSIONS
IT IS POSSIBLE TO GROWN ECONOMICALLY,
BETTER SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, AND REDUCE
GHG EMISSIONS IN ALL OF THE SCENARIOS
CONSIDERED BY THIS STUDY.
IES-Brasil: Social Implications
Household Income & Purchasing Power
Base year
(2005=1)
GPS
MA1
MA1+T
MA2
MA2+T
Annual Av. Income
1
3.16
3.38
3.29
3.68
3.25
Purchasing Power
1
2.60
2.68
2.64
2.87
2.71
Annual Av. Income
1
2.78
2.98
2.90
3.22
2.85
Purchasing Power
1
2.22
2.27
2.23
2.38
2.25
Annual Av. Income
1
2.04
2.18
2.13
2.35
2.08
Purchasing Power
1
1.62
1.64
1.61
1.66
1.58
Poorest 16% hhs
Mid 60% hhs
Richest 24% hhs