Outlook of Brazilian Agriculture
XVI Joint Meeting of the BRAZIL – JAPAN Economic Cooperation Committee
September 23rd, 2013
Belo Horizonte – Minas Gerais, Brazil
Data sources: USDA, FAO, CIA, UN, CONAB, MAFF
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Agrex do Brasil (former “Los Grobo Ceagro do Brasil”)
2
Mitsubishi Corporation has acquired a Brazilian grain company.
“Agrex do Brasil S/A” (former “Los Grobo Ceagro do Brasil”)
WHY ???
MA
PI
TO
BA
MT
GO
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World Demand for Grain Will Further Increase
Example: Soybeans World Import Forecast
2013
( 95 million tons )
2023
( 144 million tons )
Others
Others
EU
11mil (8%)
EU
12mil (13%)
Asia
72mil (76%)
Asia
117mil (81%)
 In the next decade, the world will need to import soybeans
49 million tons MORE, or 52% INCREASE.
 Most of the incremental comes from Asia.
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3
World Demand for Grain Will Further Increase
 World Population:
 Now:
7.1 billions
 2023:
7.9 billions
(2050:
10.0 billions)
 Improvement of Living Standard (Change of Dietary):
1kg of Egg
=
3kg of grain
1kg of Poultry
=
4kg of grain
1kg of Pork =
7kg of grain
1kg of Beef =
11kg of grain
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4
Who Can Supply This Demand Incremental ?
 Land Availability (million HA)
5
 Available Land in Brazil
Available
Used
Expansion into Northeast and North
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Who Can Supply This Demand Incremental ?
6
Historical Soybeans Yield (tons / ha)
Brazil
Argentine
USA
 Among Brazil, Argentine and USA (the 3 major export countries),
Brazil shows the least volatility.
 This proves that Brazil has the most stable / favorable conditions:
Precipitation, Temperature, Solar Radiation, Soil, Crop Management, etc.
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Brazil Will Supply This Demand Incremental
7
Example: Soybeans World Export Forecast
2013
( 95 million tons )
2023
( 144 million tons )
Others
Others
Argentine
6mil (7%)
Argentine
18mil (12%)
Brazil
41mil (43%)
USA
36mil (38%)
Brazil
64mil (44%)
USA
44mil (30%)
 Sufficient Land Availability
 Favorable Weather Condition
 Plans for Logistics Developments
These Make Brazil the further
important grain supplier for the world
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Other Agricultural Products Also Rely on Brazil
Coffee Export
Brazil 32%
(World No.1)
Poultry Export
Brazil 36%
Orange Juice Export
Brazil 81%
(World No.1)
Pork Export
8
Sugar Export
Brazil 46%
(World No.1)
Beef Export
Brazil 9%
Brazil 17%
(World No.4)
(World No.2)
(World No.1)
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【Ref】 Value Chain
9
 “From Farm to Consumer”: Participate in every segment of the whole chain
 Overview the various markets as one ⇒ Define the markets needs / situation
Grain Origination
Logistics
Export
Import
Consumer Retail
Meet Packing
Livestock Farms
Processing
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