Brasil na COP-15
Emissões Globais de Combustíveis Fósseis +
Cimento
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
2007: 31.5 GtCO2
Growth rate:
9
3.4% per year
8
7
Growth rate:
2008:
Emissions: 8.7 PgC
Growth rate: 2.0%
1990 levels: +41%
1.0% per year
6
1990
Fonte: Global Carbon Project
2000-2008
Growth rate: 3.4%
2000
2010
Percentage of Global Annual Emissions
Distribuição
emissõesShare
entre países
Regionalrecente
Shift indas
Emissions
desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento
62%
57%
49.7%
43%
38%
FCCC
Kyoto
Reference
Year
Fonte: Global Carbon Project
Kyoto
Protocol
Adopted
50.3%
53%
47%
Current
Kyoto
Protocol
Enter into
Force
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Top Emitters (>4% of Total)
2000
Carbon (tons x 1000)
China
1600
USA
1200
800
Russian Fed.
400
Japan
India
0
1990 03
95
07
99
01
Time
Global Carbon Project 2009; Data: Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009
03
05 2007
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Profile Examples (1-4% of Total)
Carbon (tons x 1000)
160
UK
Canada
South Africa
120
80
Brazil
Australia
Spain
40
Denmark
0
1990 03
95
07
99
01
Time
Global Carbon Project 2009; Data: Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009
03
05 2007
Distribuição
emissões
entre países
Regional histórica
Share of das
Fossil
Fuel Emissions
desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento
100%
D3-Least Developed Countries
80%
D2-Developing Countries
60%
India
40%
China
FSU
20%
0%
Cumulative Flux
Emissions in 2004
[1751-2004]
Fonte: Global Carbon Project
Flux
Growth
in 2004
Japan
EU
Population USA
in 2004
D1-Developed Countries
Components of FF Emissions
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
4
40%
Oil
3
36%
Coal
2
Gas
1
Cement
0
1990
2000
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience
2010
Destino das emissões antropogenicas de CO2
5.5 Gt CO2eq y-1
(2000-2007)
Atmosfera
46%
+
31.5 Gt C02eq y
-1
Solos e
Florestas
29%
Oceanos
26%
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated)
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
10
International Energy Agency
-1
Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC y )
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
9
A1B
8
A1FI
A1T
A2
7
B1
B2
6
5
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009
2015
CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
10
8
Fossil fuel
6
4
Land use change
2
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; Data: CDIAC, FAO, Woods Hole Research Center 2009
2010
Net CO2 Emissions from LUC in Tropical Countries
2000-2005
CO2 emissions (TgC y-1)
600
500
400
60%
Brazil
Indonesia
300
200
Cameroon
Venezuela
Peru
Rep.Dem.Congo
100
Colombia
Nicaragua
India
Nigeria
Philippines
Nepal
0
4-2%
2-1%
RA Houghton 2009, unpublished; Based on FAO land use change statistics
<1%
Emissions from Land Use Change (2000-2005)
(Area)
Canadell et al. 2009, Biogeosciences
Fire Emissions from Deforestation Zones
Fire Emissions from
deforestation zones (TgC y-1)
Global Fire Emissions Dataset (vs2)
van der Werf et al. 2006, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, updated
Carbon Emissions from Land Use Change
Borneo, Courtesy: Viktor Boehm
Tropical deforestation
13 Million hectares each year
2000-2007
Tropical Americas 0.6 Pg C y-1
Tropical Asia
0.6 Pg C y-1
Tropical Africa
0.3 Pg C y-1
1.5 Pg C y-1
[2007-Total Anthropogenic Emissions:8.5+1.5 = 10 Pg]
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS; FAO-Global Resources Assessment 2005
October 21 2007
Charles launches campaign to
save ravaged rainforests
Prince Charles will this week join the battle
against climate change by launching an
organisation which calls for a new green
economics that recognises the world's
rainforests are worth more alive than dead.
Deforestation is responsible for 18-25
per cent of global carbon emissions, an
output second only to energy
production.
Deforestation is responsible for 18-25
per cent of global carbon emissions
(Prince Charles)
How does anyone know?
Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE
The impact of deforestation
Deforestation is responsible for 20% of global
carbon emissions (Sir David King)
How does he know?
The impact of deforestation
Brazil (1990s): 22.000 km2 average - about 3% of CO2 emissions
Brazil (2005-2010 est): 12.000 km2 - about 1,2% of CO2 emissions
Ações de Mitigação
(NAMAs)
Uso da terra
Red Desmatamento
Amazônia (80%)
Red Desmatamento no
Cerrado (40%)
Agropecuária
Recuperação de Pastos
ILP - Integração Lavoura
Pecuária
Plantio Direto
Fixação Biológica de
Nitrogenio
Energia
Eficiência Energética
Incremento do uso de
biocombustíveis
Expansão da oferta de
energia por Hidroelétricas
Fontes Alternativas (PCH,
Bioeletricidade, eólica)
Outros
Siderurgia – substituir
carvão de desmate por
plantado
Total
Amplitude da redução
2020
2020 (tendencial)
(mi tCO2)
1084 669
669
Proporção de Redução
24,70%
24,70%
564
564
20,90%
20,90%
104
133
83
104
166
104
3,90%
4,90%
3,10%
3,90%
6,10%
3,80%
18
16
22
20
0,70%
0,60%
0,80%
0,70%
16
166
12
20
207
15
0,60%
6,10%
0,40%
0,70%
7,70%
0,60%
48
60
1,80%
2,20%
79
99
2,90%
3,70%
92
26
8
33
10
1,00%
0,30%
1,20%
0,40%
2703
8
975
10
1052
0,30%
36,10%
0,40%
38,90%
627
901
Redução do desmatamento
Valores anuais de queda do desmatamento para atingir redução de 80% em 2020
Comparação modelos de emissões por uso da terra
1600
Estimativas Rede Clima +
MMA
1400
Estimativas INPE Modelo C1
(CO2)
1200
MCT_Flor.+LUC
Cerri etal_Flor+LUC_CO2
1000
Cerri etal_Flor+LUC_CO2eq.
800
Estimativas INPE Modelo C1
(CO2eq - Amazonia)
600
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
400
Redução de emissões (Mton CO2eq) em relação à linha de base (19.500
km2)
800.0000
Floresta Primária
Floresta Primária e Secundária
(balanço)
MtonCO2eq
600.0000
400.0000
D
200.0000
0.0000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year (2005-2020)
Impact of Brazilian contribution to global
emissions mitigation: most likely scenario
USA proposed legislation
commits to a 17% cut in
emissions relative to 2005.
Brazilian proposal will
reduce emissions 36% to
39% in relation to BAU
by 2020
USA
Proposed US reduction
(Boxer-Kerry law)
1,23 Gt CO2eq
Brazil
Proposed Brazilian reduction
1,1 Gt CO2eq
Impact of Brazilian contribution to global
emissions mitigation: best case scenario
Brazilian proposed emissions
cut would be 40% of bestcase US reduction
G77 has demanded a a
40% cut in US emissions
relative to 1990 levels.
USA
Brazil
G77 requested US reduction of
2,5 Gt CO2eq
Proposed Brazilian reduction
1,1 Gt CO2eq