Housing Policy Debate • Volume 3, Issue 3 877 The Housing System of the Former Soviet Union: Why Do the Soviets Need Housing Markets? Bertrand Renaud The World Bank Abstract The administrative-command system that had been in full force in the Soviet Union between 1927 and 1990 had its own logic and internal consistency. It is now common knowledge that this economic system has flaws that led to a deepening secular decline over the past three decades. Because of ideological reasons, and an inadequate economic understanding of the capacity of their system to be liberalized, many reformers sought a third way between central planning and markets. The consensus today is that there is no third way. Among the former Soviet republics, Russia has just embarked on market-oriented reforms and is facing a difficult and unstable transition because central planning mechanisms have ceased to function, but markets are not yet in place. This transition is particularly problematic for housing, which is a very severely distorted economic sector. The international evidence on market economies that has accumulated over the past 20 years shows that, when housing sector distortions exist, they are predominantly found on the supply side. In socialist economies, however, housing is part of the compensation provided by enterprises and other employers. As a result housing suffers from demand-side distortions in addition to the supply-side problems caused by the absence of land markets, vague property rights, and burdensome urban regulations. The housing sector is already so large and distorted in these highly urban economies that overall economic reforms cannot succeed without housing reforms. In addition to presenting an overview of Soviet housing, this paper provides comparative evidence indicating that, among all the distorted socialist housing systems, Russia’s probably is the most impaired. The basic elements of a market-oriented strategy to improve housing are briefly presented. Introduction The period of perestroika under Mikhail Gorbachev ended in the fall of 1991. Since 1985, the Soviet Union had been searching, like other socialist countries, for a third way between central planning and the market to improve its declining economy. This search culminated in the failure of the debate on the 500-Day, or Shatalin, Plan in October 1990 when Gorbachev conceded that there was no third way and yet could only commit himself to a series of halfway 878 Bertrand Renaud measures.1 Following the aborted antireform coup of August 1991 and the collapse of the Soviet Union as a political system, Russia has taken the road to radical market reforms. The Yeltsin-Gaidar government faces macroeconomic conditions that are considerably worse than six years, or even 500 days, ago. In housing, the Russian Federation had been consistently ahead of the All-Union government in privatization and housing reform. On July 4, 1991, the Russian Supreme Soviet adopted a law entitled On the Privatization of the Housing Stock in the Russian Federation. On February 18, 1992, the Russian government submitted to Parliament a Basic Law on Housing Reform. This law aims to be a market-oriented housing Bill of Rights for Russian citizens based on full private property rights. The transition from an administrativecommand system to a market-based economy is taking socialist countries through uncharted waters. The voyage to a safe harbor seems the most perilous—certainly the most arduous and costly— for the republics of the former Soviet Union. The administrative-command system, which had been in full force since 1927, turned the Soviet housing system into a very disconcerting structure for market economists.2 What distinguishes housing reform in socialist economies from housing reform in market economies is that reform at the margin is not possible to break away from the current bureaucratic housing system. All elements of the system must be reformed at the same time. Socialist housing systems suffer from major demand-side and supply-side distortions. Large-scale simultaneous reforms are required in both the operations of existing housing stock and the production of new housing. This analysis is motivated by central but distinct questions that Russia and the other former Soviet republics face today: How can the Soviet housing system be restructured? What contribution can housing reform make to the former Soviet Union’s recovery from its 1 The presidential plan entitled Basic Guidelines for Stabilization of the National Economy and Transition to a Market Economy was adopted by the Union Supreme Soviet on October 27, 1990. In spite of their half-hearted or unspecified measures, these guidelines are truly radical as they state: “There is no alternative to switching to a market,” and “The choice of switching to the market has been made, a choice of historic importance to the country.” As the analysis presented in this paper shows, an administrative command economy simply does not operate like a market economy. Market economists cannot transfer indiscriminately their modes of thought and policy views to the reform of a socialist economy, particularly to the republics of the former Soviet Union. For an excellent short primer on the behavior of a centrally planned economy, refer to Campbell (1991). 2 Why Do the Soviets Need Housing Markets? 879 present supply-side depression? Is there any lesson to learn from the Western experience with demand-side depressions? First, this paper shows how the former Soviet Union has one of the most, if not the most, distorted housing systems of all socialist economies. Then the reasons why housing reform is central to the success of overall economic reform will be discussed. Finally, international experience is used to outline the main directions in housing reform that the former Soviet Union must take. Because of the broad scope of this analysis, the massive political and institutional restructuring within which housing reform must take place will not be addressed. Current housing conditions: underinvestment, major distortions, and chronic shortages Sectoral underinvestment The present Soviet housing situation is characterized by underinvestment, shortages, and severe price and allocation distortions. Compared with market economies, the former USSR has systematically underinvested in housing. Conditions in the civilian economy are poor, and the per capita gross national product (GNP), which is comparable to that of Poland or Mexico, overstates actual living standards. The basic causes are excessive expenditures on the military and for heavy industry in a centrally planned economy where the rate of productivity gains has been particularly low. Distorted wages The international evidence on market economies accumulated over the last 20 years shows very clearly that the structural characteristics of housing demand are highly regular and stable across countries. Most of the serious distortions observed in the housing markets of both developing and developed economies, like Japan, are supply-side distortions.3 A fundamental difference between socialist housing systems and housing markets is that socialist economies suffer from major distortions that exist on both the 3 The evidence is reviewed in a forthcoming World Bank housing policy paper entitled Enabling the Markets to Work. For international evidence and a formal analysis of supply-side distortions and their causes, see Renaud 1981. 880 Bertrand Renaud demand side and the supply side. Large demand-side distortions result from socialist income policies and their extraordinarily high implicit wage taxes. These economies have been operating under the principle of low cash wages from which the state has removed the purchasing power for housing, transportation, health services, and education. These services are then provided either free or heavily subsidized as distribution goods controlled by the state. The standard efficiency analysis of public economics suggests that such a large wage tax is highly distortionary and carries with it a heavy deadweight loss—a hidden drain on the efficiency of the economy from which nobody gains. In a market economy, economic theory suggests that the size of this deadweight loss is proportional to the square of the tax rate and that it increases with the elasticity of both demand and supply. For this reason, several small taxes (with low tax rates) yielding the same aggregate resources are less distortionary.4 This low cash wage has been an important mechanism behind the observed Soviet underinvestment in housing. The household savings that were appropriated by the state were not fully reinvested in state-provided housing but were diverted to priority sectors, often for decades. Despite this low wage policy, recent Russian studies suggest that part of the housing investment by the state has come from income taxes (about 10 percent today) or housing maintenance fees imposed on these low wages (Bessonova 1988). When a state moves to a market housing system, household demand will replace the present system of state-financed housing. For the transition to markets it will therefore be important to reconstitute full market wages and to put back into household compensations the capacity to fully maintain a rental or owned housing unit. The metaphor might be, “where is the new middle class?” The shortterm problem is that the ongoing price liberalization reforms of early 1992 are converging—or rather colliding—into very low cash wages. The economic weekly Kommersant estimated the following cash consumer spending distribution for Moscow in the second quarter of 1991 (table 1). 4 See, for instance, Stiglitz (1986, p. 375) and Harberger (1974). Why Do the Soviets Need Housing Markets? 881 Table 1. Estimated Consumer Spending, Moscow, Second Quarter of 1991 Average Spending per Family Member (Rubles per Month) 160 (minimum wage) 200 (economic minimum) 285 (social minimum) 1030 (second-tier consumers) 2850 (third-tier consumers) Share of Population Found Below This Level (Percent) 23 using price-controlled goods 40 using price-controlled goods 78 using price-controlled goods 98 using commercially priced goods 99.9 using goods of Western quality and price Source: Kommersant, August 19, 1991, Moscow (English version). These imperfect data suggest that about 20 percent of the total population is in a position to consider some form of market housing without a major wage and income reform. The proportion of the population earning market wages is considerably smaller in the former Soviet Union than in Poland or Hungary. The authors of the 500Day Plan estimate the proportion of the shadow economy at about 20 percent of the GNP. N.V. Kalinina (1990) estimated that in 1989 about 10 percent of the population was able to finance its own housing. This estimate was made before the acceleration of inflation, which is now destroying financial savings. Distorted ownership structure. The former Soviet Union has the most distorted ownership structure of all the major socialist housing systems. It has the highest rate of public ownership of urban housing stock: over 78 percent Union-wide, compared with 67 percent in China, 56 percent in Poland, 33 percent in Romania, and 25 percent in Hungary. Western estimates of public ownership rates at the end of the 1980s showed the opposite: 2 percent in the United States, 7 percent in Germany, 17 percent in France, 30 percent in the United Kingdom, and 38 percent in Sweden; moreover, public stock in Western countries is managed quite differently. The former Soviet Union has a totally monopolistic structure of production and maintenance, poor capital recovery, and nominal rents that were set in 1928. Five of the former Soviet republics have pushed the system of centralized state housing ownership the furthest and incurred the greatest distortions. They are the Russian Federation, Byelorussia, and the three Baltic states. Cities with more than 100,000 people in these republics are almost entirely under public ownership. Ukraine does slightly better than the rest in terms of individual ownership. Distorted pricing structure. Three aspects of the Soviet housing system give it the most distorted housing prices of the socialist economies. First, rent-income ratios, which reflect the price renters pay for state-provided housing, are extremely low. The rent-income ratios in table 2 existed in recent years, before major reform. 882 Bertrand Renaud Table 2. Rent-Income Ratios in Various Socialist Countries Country Year Total Payment (%) Rent Only (%) Utilities Only (%) Bulgaria Hungary Poland Romania Yugoslavia USSR 1988 1987 1986 1989 1988 1989 12.1 8.7 4.4 4.4 9.3 2.5 7.6 1.6 2.0 3.0 2.8 1.0 4.5 7.1 2.4 1.0 6.5 1.5 Source: National statistical agencies of each country; various household surveys. Second, the free market sales that occur in the auction markets of major cities, such as Moscow, are extraordinarily high in price compared with the purchasing power of ordinary households. These auction sales figures reflect housing purchases by companies and cooperatives, not individual households. They are driven more by a need to place rubles in very high inflation-resistant assets than by a specific interest in the housing sector. Again, among semireformed socialist economies, the distortions between free market and state market housing price-income ratios (PIR) are greatest in the former Soviet Union (see table 3). Table 3. Housing Price/Income Ratio in Various Socialist Countries Country Nature of Sale Housing PIR Soviet Union Auction sale (1992) State sale (1989) 18–750 2 Bulgaria Market sale (1990) 11 Czech and Slovak Federal Republic Market sale (1991) State sale (1984) 10–12 3 Hungary Market sale (1990) Self-built (1990) 12–14 7 Poland Cooperative sale (1991) Private sale (1991) 5 9–12 Romania Private sale (1991) State sale (1991) 7–9 3 Source: Various national statistical sources and local business press. In addition to reflecting distorted wages, these price-income ratios reflect disequilibrium in prices for a narrow volume of trade. They do not have the same statistical quality as comparable ratios in Why Do the Soviets Need Housing Markets? 883 market economies that are regularly monitored through reliable market surveys, particularly for family incomes. Finally, the Soviet housing supply pricing structure is also extraordinarily distorted. The ratio of input costs to producers’ prices (i.e., the prices of inputs adjusted by the tax or subsidy applied to them, including the taxes and subsidies on the inputs used to produce the inputs) was estimated for major goods and services for 1989. These producers’ prices are the approximate equivalent of wholesale prices in a market economy. At 6.02, this ratio was by far the worst for housing—compared with 2.67 for communications, 1.62 for transportation, between 1.80 and 1.20 for food products, and 0.54 for consumer durable goods (Shironin 1990). In other words, two years ago, housing costs were more than six times the official price. This situation existed before the acceleration of distortions that are now occurring. Moreover, there is an absence of land pricing in the Soviet Union. The land share of total housing costs ranges from 20 percent to over 50 percent in market economies. Regional investment distortions. Differences in housing shortages are very significant among republics and among cities within republics. The Western and Baltic republics enjoy better housing. Large cities are better treated than small cities. At equal population size, cities that are administrative centers are consistently favored. As a showcase and a city of investment decision-makers, Moscow has been treated best. Poor housing conditions and massive physical and social infrastructure shortages in the new industrial centers of Siberia and in other areas where natural resources need to be exploited are major obstacles to labor stability and economic development. Everywhere, the quality of the rural stock is much lower than that of the urban stock. Chronic shortages. Due to the total neglect of housing during the Stalin era (1927–1955) and the destruction of war, the USSR had an extremely low per capita housing level of 4 square meters of usable space in the 1950s—about as bad as in 1917. Thanks to massive housing production efforts, especially in the 1960s, the level rose to 15.8 square meters by 1989. Yet, this is less than half the level of space available in Western countries, and does not take into account the major differences in housing quality and efficiency.5 Chronic space shortages are reflected in the fact that 36 percent of the urban population has a living area below the official sanitary norm of 9 square meters. As a result, per capita space standards lower than this norm are used to allocate housing to people on waiting lists. These standards differ among cities. 884 Bertrand Renaud In contrast to the overall economic slowdown, housing production rose during the 12th Plan (1986–1990) from 15.9 percent to 17.3 percent of total annual investment. In value, housing production has risen from 30.9 to 38.0 billion in constant 1984 rubles. However, this investment level was too low to eliminate quantitative shortages. Inflation and worsening shortages of goods have caused physical output to decline since 1987. Since 1991, total construction output has fallen drastically for housing as well as for other types of construction. The basic Gorbachev target announced in 1985 of one housing unit per household by the year 2000 cannot possibly be reached. To hide its problems, the USSR was the only major country that never published official housing statistics. Soviet analysts find that at least 45 percent of the population may endure doubled-up conditions (Nayzhul 1989). Notorious communal apartments, where several families share the same kitchen, bathrooms, toilets, and corridors, are still a reality (35.8 percent of St. Petersburg’s population was living in such apartments in 1986). Housing units in Western countries have more rooms (n) than persons (k). The typical situation is n=k+l or n=k+2. In the former Soviet Union, the usual situation for new units is still n=k–1, or even n=k–2. In her pioneering 1986 study of the medium-size city of Tver, Kalinina found the following distribution of crowding conditions based on the relation between family size and number of rooms (see table 4). Table 4. Family Size Versus Number of Rooms, Tver, 1986 Persons per Room n = k–4 or k–5 n = k–1 or k–2 n=k n = k+1 or k+2 Percent of Households 8 54 23 5 Source: Kalinina (1986). 5 In socialist economies, housing statistics often use three measures of housing space: “construction space,” which covers all the area within the outside perimeter of the building, including common spaces like halls, stairways, and public corridors; “usable space,” which is the total inner area of the apartment; and “living space,” which is the apartment less kitchen, bathroom, and corridors. The net effect of using living space as the criterion for the allocation of units or for registration on a waiting list is to remove major quality dimensions from decisions. The housing services from, say, 5 square meters of living space with a private kitchen are not the same as 5 square meters of living space with a communal kitchen. Yet this is what has been happening in St. Petersburg, where communal apartments are still common. For statistical purposes, 1 square meter of living space can be converted to 1.45 square meters of usable space. Why Do the Soviets Need Housing Markets? 885 The length of waiting lists for housing in various cities reflects both chronic shortages and distortions in regional investment. These waiting lists also reflect the control of population movement through use of an internal residency permit, the propiska, which is discussed later on. Low quality of housing. Quality of housing is critical because people consume the daily flow of services produced by existing housing stock; they do not consume square meters of buildings. Inadequate maintenance is pervasive, and as a result, the housing stock is deteriorating steadily. The rent control system has not changed since 1928: 13.2 kopecks per square meter of living area per month are charged, with some minor adjustment for building quality (such as elevator, garbage chutes, etc.) and for floor space above the norm; but there is no adjustment for location and quality of neighborhood. This system produces rents that cover much less than 40 percent of the cost of very low maintenance levels. Today, most of the Soviet people have no notion of the true economic cost of the housing resources they use. It is quite likely that the government does not know either. Until 1989, financial and physical norms were officially dictated for the entire territory by the economics department of the Committee for Housing Maintenance and the Communal Economy in Moscow, based on statistical reports from the field. Some estimate that rents would have to be raised six or eight times current levels to achieve genuine full economic cost recovery. Statistics on water connections, hot water, electricity, bathrooms, toilets, and district central heating are misleading. Supply interruptions are very common. Hot water may be cut off for several weeks in entire districts, especially during the summer. A major problem for housing maintenance is created by rents that remain frozen at 1928 levels despite two major price liberalizations in January and April 1992. Clearly, rents will have to be raised quickly; however, this is politically very difficult in 1992 given the rapid fall in real cash wages caused by very high inflation. Regressive or random subsidies. Soviet production and rent subsidies are linked to apartment units and not to the socioeconomic characteristics of households. As a result, the larger the apartment unit, the more subsidized a household is. Contrary to the egalitarian claims of the Soviet system, housing is a major source of inequality in the former USSR. Because of the large role played by in-kind income, the main inequalities do not come from cash wages. There is statistical evidence of a strong correlation between socioeconomic status and access to housing. Despite so many distortions, the structural parameters of housing demand are very similar to those of market economies (Alexeev 1987, 1988). On the supply side, 886 Bertrand Renaud the present financing mechanisms for apartment units allow a significant proportion of funding to subsidize inefficiencies in production. The deadweight losses of the present system to the economy can be very large indeed. Monopolistic building industry and obsolete designs. The largest share of new housing consists of widely disliked high-rise apartments. They have been produced by citywide housing kombinats using obsolete, capital- and energy-intensive large-panel industrial techniques. Enjoying a monopoly position in an environment of shortage, these kombinats are totally unresponsive to the preferences of the population. The composition of the output in terms of unit types does not match the changing composition of the urban population. The rate of design innovation is very low: fewer than two new types of apartments per decade. The quality of newly finished units is poor: upon delivery, recipients of a new unit usually must spend about 10 percent over production costs to bring their unit to a decent level. These days, due to severe shortages of industrial parts or infrastructure, housing kombinats have been known to deliver buildings in which the water supply does not always reach past the 7th or 8th floor in buildings with 9, 12, or 22 floors. The type of investor has an important impact on quality: enterprise- or cooperative-financed housing is of better quality than state-financed housing. Marginalized private sector. Tenure categories in the USSR differ significantly from those in market economies. Similar-sounding labels apply to very different situations. Individual housing, a restrictive form of private ownership, has been marginalized to the economic, social, and geographical fringes of Soviet society. New individual housing production was officially prohibited in cities with over 100,000 inhabitants until 1987. Both dwelling and infrastructure quality are lowest for individual housing. The exact opposite occurs in market economies. In the popular Russian view, urban individual housing means slum. Its quality is poor—two-thirds of these units do not even have running water. In 1989, the share of individual housing in the USSR was 21.4 percent of urban housing and 70 percent of rural housing. The 12th Plan period (1986–1990) allowed individual housing construction to have a significant role for the first time in several decades. Gorbachev supported the production of individual housing, which had long been actively discouraged in all urban areas for ideological or bureaucratic reasons. In 1991, the volume of individual housing construction was 10 percent of total construction in terms of floor space, but the quality of this housing remains considerably below that of state housing. One major reason for this Why Do the Soviets Need Housing Markets? 887 difference in quality is that most new individual housing is built on either unserviced or poorly serviced land. Because until recently land could not be sold or leased, it was allocated by local governments, and they derived little financial or political benefit from encouraging individual housing. Local governments have no direct-cost recovery mechanism in the traditional housing system for on-site or off-site infrastructure, and therefore no means to service individual housing. The Russian figures for housing production for 1990 and 1991 are shown in table 5. Table 5. Housing Production by Type Types of Housing 1990 1991 (Millions of Square Meters) Individual housing Cooperative housing State housing 5.5 2.9 52.1 4.7 2.4 41.2 Total production 60.5 48.3 An unpopular issue: inefficient and unfair housing allocation mechanisms. Few problems cause more public tension today in the republics of the former Soviet Union than the inefficient and unfair mechanisms for housing allocation. Food shortages are also a major cause for concern, but they are relatively new. The housing allocation system, which is deeply resented, has been in force for decades. Never perfectly fair or effective, it has become increasingly corrupt with time. The housing allocation problem has two interactive dimensions: (1) waiting lists and (2) the propiska. To understand the contents of various reform proposals, it is very important to understand that a family’s current housing conditions may determine its access to better housing in the future and are a major impediment to labor mobility across cities. The bureaucratic allocation system is a major obstacle to household and labor market adjustments. Waiting lists. Waiting lists are a permanent feature of Soviet life—almost a national obsession. Several are managed separately but not independently: municipal waiting lists, cooperative waiting lists, enterprise waiting lists. Inscription onto a housing waiting list is not automatic. It is based on need and related to affiliation with a specific work unit. Household income is not a consideration. The most important indicator of need is the misleading standard of square meters of living space per capita. Its maximum value for inscription on waiting lists may range from 5 to 7 square meters. As already noted, this need criterion deliberately eliminates critical aspects of housing quality, such as shared facilities in communal 888 Bertrand Renaud apartments, location and neighborhood, and socioeconomic and ecological quality. Under the living space criterion, residents of communal apartments are seriously penalized. Cheating or manipulation is frequent in this bureaucratic system. Some people are more equal than others, and resentment of the preferred treatment given to the nomenklatura (those in privileged positions) runs deep. In Moscow, 15.4 percent of the entire population was on municipal and cooperative waiting lists in June 1990. The computerized management of these lists is very complex. The Moscow government has identified 56 different categories of households and 120 different paths to achieve access to housing. The waiting period is officially up to ten years, but older applicants may be dropped from the list and registered again under a more recent date. Residency permits: the propiska system. The propiska system of internal passports has been used extensively in the past as an instrument of “labor discipline” and of “population distribution policy and spatial planning.” It is a source of inequity and economic inefficiency. During the postwar period, rural residents have been subjected to the equivalent of socialist serfdom by being denied a propiska to move to cities. The population of highly favored cities, such as Moscow, has been stabilized through this passport system. During the days of pervasive shortages of consumer goods, a local propiska has often been required for shopping. Temporary residency permits of a few months’ duration are issued to meet short-term needs in sectors experiencing serious labor shortages, but such permits do not give rights to housing. Proposals to abolish the propiska are under consideration, and such a step would have a direct impact on housing waiting lists and the housing system in general. The bureaucratic allocation system is a major impediment to household mobility and to labor market adjustments. Convoluted and expensive systems of housing exchange involving several units (often up to seven) have developed. They are tolerated but not legal, and therefore remain subject to arbitrary administrative decisions without recourse. In most cities, employers (even ministries) are not allowed to expand their staffs freely. Generally, they are allowed staff substitutions. By early 1992, the propiska had not yet been abolished in Russia because of housing shortages, in spite of parliament’s desire to do so. To finance itself, the Moscow government has begun holding public auctions to sell residency permits. Prices are published in the press. Free privatization of units has been proposed, with compensation to those on the waiting lists in the form of a free plot of suburban land. Why Do the Soviets Need Housing Markets? 889 Waiting lists and the socially guaranteed minimum for reforms. Important dimensions of market-oriented housing reforms will be the economic liabilities accumulated by the government because of waiting lists, and the important principle of a socially guaranteed housing minimum. This principle represents the outstanding right to housing incorporated in the waiting lists and must be considered when developing a privatization plan for the transfer of property ownership to families, whether for free or for a price. The Moscow privatization decision, decreed on June 29, 1990, is an example of such consideration. The socially guaranteed minimum is included in the July 1991 Housing Privatization Law of the Russian Federation. It is best illustrated by the minimum living space per capita of 5 to 7 square meters. In current discussions of housing privatization, it is often proposed that rent increases and housing privatization be implemented on the basis of a two-part tariff: the guaranteed amount of living space would be given free of charge or at a nominal cost. Anything above that minimum amount would be made available to the household at a price that reflects the true economic cost of the space. The economic magnitude of this guarantee is quite large. Waiting lists have expanded during the perestroika period from 12.6 million in 1986 (i.e., 22 percent of the total Soviet household population) to 14.6 million in 1990 (24 percent of the total). The share of waiting pensioners is 27 percent of their total number. Why housing reforms are necessary to successful overall economic reforms Housing reforms in the former Soviet Union are central to successful structural economic reforms. They are a high priority for four reasons: (1) to correct macroeconomic imbalances, (2) to stablilize the economy, (3) to increase enterprise efficiency and facilitate labor market reforms, and (4) to achieve greater equity and social stability. A glaring paradox of the Soviet housing system is its large-scale asset misallocation and the consequent loss of efficiency: the state owns the physical assets, and the households have the liquidity and savings. During their lifetime, households accumulate increasing amounts of savings that they cannot store in the form of housing, while the state cannot find enough resources to produce attractive units. Correction of macroeconomic imbalances and of housing’s contribution to economic decline. The poor performance of socialist housing systems originates in the view of housing as a social issue rather than a major economic sector. Due to decades of poor capital cost