BLACKROCK GLOBAL ETP LANDSCAPE MONTHLY SNAPSHOT | JANUARY 2015 The opinions expressed are as of January 31st, 2015 and may change as subsequent conditions vary. FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL AND MEDIA USE ONLY - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION Summary BlackRock ETP Research A cross-regional team analyzing global markets to deliver insights on the intersection of investment trends and ETP flows For inquiries, please email [email protected] JANUARY ETP FLOWS HIGHLIGHTED BY STRENGTH FOR NONU.S. DEVELOPED MARKETS EQUITIES AND FIXED INCOME Global asset gathering moderated from recent months to $11.6bn, with significant inflows for Europe equity and corporate bonds diverging from heavy redemptions for U.S. large cap and EM equity The more aggressive than expected ECB quantitative easing announcement was well received by the market, contributing to record flows of $8.4bn for panEuropean equity and $13.7bn for Europe-listed ETPs Exchange rate movements, particularly U.S. dollar appreciation against the euro, led to a new monthly high of $6.9bn for currency-hedged ETP flows, which were concentrated in Europe and EAFE equity exposures Equity market volatility, uncertainty surrounding global growth and the ECB stimulus news all supported ongoing demand for fixed income funds, which gathered $13.0bn, and kept downward pressure on interest rates Commodity flows accelerated to $5.2bn, the greatest monthly total in nearly five years, due to crude oil inflows following the collapse in oil prices as well as the first significant gold inflows since June Global ETP Highlights ………………………………………………………... 3 Year-to-date Overview ..……………………………………………………… 5 Reference Schedules Flows by Listing Region …………………………………………….. 6 Fund Inflows and Outflows …………………………………………. 7 ETP Flows by Exposure …………………………………………….. 8 Subscribe To receive the ETP Landscape series of reports, please visit our website: www.blackrockinternational.com/etflsubscribe FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL AND MEDIA USE ONLY - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION [2] Global ETP Highlights Global ETP flows1 of $11.6bn in January moderated from the pace set in Q4. This was largely due to redemptions of ($18.3bn) for U.S. equity funds, a key driver of last year’s record industry growth. The S&P 500 was down 3.1% in January2, reminiscent of a similar slow start to the year in 2014. KEY INVESTMENT THEMES / ETP FLOW TRENDS By contrast, 2015 began with surging demand for non-U.S. developed markets equities, which gathered $18.2bn. Fixed income added $13.0bn along with $5.2bn for commodities. Europe equity Broad dev. eqty Broad EM eqty Japan equity Inv. grade corp. China equity Pan-European equity funds brought in $8.4bn, their best month ever, helped by the ECB announcing an open-ended plan to purchase 60 billion euros of sovereign bonds per month. The larger than expected size, lack of firm end date and inclusion of long-term bonds were well received by the market. GLOBAL ETP FLOWS1 The euro depreciated against the dollar, with the exchange rate reaching 1.13 dollars per euro.3 This spurred significant flows into currency-hedged ETPs (see below) across geographic exposures as investors anticipate further dollar strength. 2015 YTD Flows of $11.6bn vs. 2014 Flows: $329.6bn 200 Switzerland equity added $0.3bn following the SNB’s surprise change in policy to allow the Swiss franc to appreciate against the euro. It was the second consecutive month of inflows following the $1.2bn from December. Flows (US$bn) 150 Japanese equity gathered $3.2bn, the second month in a row of significant inflows after news of greater central bank stimulus and Prime Minister Abe’s recent election victory. The majority of the flows were again from Japan-listed funds. 100 50 U.S. equity Non-U.S. dev. equity EM equity Fixed income Commodities & other 90.5 138.0 68.2 32.9 11.6 0 (50) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan-15 2014 SPOTLIGHT ON CURRENCY-HEDGED EQUITY ETPs GLOBAL CURRENCY-HEDGED EQUITY ETP FLOWS1 The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has risen 18% over the last six months4 and the dollar is expected to appreciate further in 2015. In January alone, currency-hedged equity ETP flows reached nearly half of the total for all of 2014. The global market has surged to $53bn, up from $10bn two years ago. Three key drivers have fueled this growth: 2) 3) General divergence of U.S. economic growth, central bank policy and interest rate expectations with Japan and the eurozone has contributed to currency volatility and increased demand for funds that can protect returns The late-2012 election of Prime Minister Abe and acceleration of Bank of Japan stimulus, which were catalysts for 2013 Japan equity ETP flows of $10.2bn (dollar hedged) and $3.8bn (euro hedged) 25 20 Flows (US$bn) 1) 2015 YTD Flows: $6.9bn vs. 2014 Flows: $14.3bn USD (Europe) USD (EAFE) USD (Japan) Other 20.1 14.3 15 10 6.9 5 2.1 2.9 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jan-15 Relative eurozone weakness and long-anticipated ECB stimulus led to dollar-hedged flows of $4.0bn in January following $7.0bn last year (EAFE funds are also benefitting) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL AND MEDIA USE ONLY - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION [3] Global ETP Highlights (cont’d) Minimum volatility funds brought in $1.9bn, predominantly from U.S. equity exposures. This followed Q4 flows of $2.5bn, 70% of last year’s total. The average VIX level over the past month rose to 19.0, versus 16.0 during Q4 and 13.5 for the first nine months of 2014.5 Though U.S. equities overall shed ($18.3bn), a single fund (SPY, the SPDR S&P 500) accounted for ($28.0bn) in a sharp reversal from December inflows of $17.8bn.6 The remaining $9.7bn ex-SPY was concentrated in broad market and high dividend yield funds. RESULTS AT A GLANCE1 (US $billions) Jan 2015 Dec 2014 Jan 2014 Monthly Flows 11.6 60.8 (6.7) Assets 2,776 2,797 2,322 # of ETPs 5,420 5,431 5,054 GLOBAL 13-MONTH ROLLING FLOWS1 2015 YTD flows: $11.6bn vs. 2014 Flows: $329.6bn (US$bn) Broad EM equity remains out of favor. Redemptions of ($2.3bn) were the third in four months following inflows for much of 2014. China equity redemptions accelerated to ($5.5bn) as the A-share market has cooled following a speculation-fueled rally driven by domestic investors. India equity was a bright spot, gathering $1.0bn as investors hold out hope surrounding prime minister Modi’s reform agenda. Fixed income momentum from a record 2014 carried into the new year. Overall corporate bond flows of $6.1bn were the best in three years. The ECB easing had a sizeable impact on Europe-listed flows of $5.1bn, split between investment grade corporate and sovereign bonds. U.S.-listed fixed income asset gathering was also robust at $7.4bn. Flows spanned multiple categories, from Treasuries to corporate bonds (investment grade and high yield) to broad U.S. market funds to municipals. Interest rates pushed lower, with the 10-year Treasury reaching 1.64%.7 Commodity flows hit a five-year high of $5.2bn. Investors poured $3.6bn into crude oil funds anticipating a bottom to the collapse in oil prices. Gold rallied leading to inflows of $2.3bn in a reversal from five consecutive months of redemptions. Equity Fixed Income Commodities & Others GLOBAL ETP ASSETS BY YEAR1 Assets ($bn) 3,000 2,797 2,776 Equity Fixed Income Commodities & Others 2,500 2,396 1,945 2,000 1,483 1,525 1,500 1,156 851 1,000 772 598 500 79 109 146 218 319 428 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jan-15 FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL AND MEDIA USE ONLY - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION [4] Year-to-date Overview GLOBAL ETP 2014 FLOWS BY EXPOSURE1 January 2015 January 2014 Developed Markets Equity (0.1) 0.9 243.9 Emerging Markets Equity (6.4) (8.7) (1.8) Total (6.5) (7.7) 242.1 Government 3.9 1.6 19.5 High Yield Corporate 2.3 (0.3) 4.0 Investment Grade Corporate 3.8 1.0 22.4 Others 2.9 1.0 39.0 Total 13.0 3.4 84.9 Total 5.1 (2.3) 2.6 11.6 (6.7) 329.6 (US$bn) Equity Fixed Income Commodities & others Grand Total GLOBAL ETP CUMULATIVE FLOWS1 350 2015 YTD Flows $11.6bn vs. 2014 Flows: $329.6bn 329.6 300 262.6 2015 2014 2013 2012 250 200 Annual 2014 236.1 150 100 50 11.6 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D -50 CUMULATIVE EQUITY ETP FLOWS1 CUMULATIVE FIXED INCOME ETP FLOWS1 2015 YTD Equity Flows: ($6.5bn) 2015 YTD Fixed Income Flows: $13.0bn 90 300 80 2015 2014 2013 2012 250 84.9 248.1 242.1 200 170.7 2015 2014 2013 2012 70 60 70.0 50 150 40 100 30 20 27.1 13.0 50 10 (6.5) 0 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D -50 FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL AND MEDIA USE ONLY - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION [5] Flows By Listing Region Highlights (US$):1 Canada-listed ETPs gathered $0.3bn, the twelfth U.S.-listed ETPs posted outflows due to U.S. large cap consecutive month of inflows equity redemptions after averaging $20bn per month in 2014 Europe-listed ETPs gathered a new monthly high of $13.7bn, Asia Pacific-listed ETP flows were flat as Japan-listed inflows already 22% of last year’s record flows were largely offset by China-listed redemptions MTD FLOWS BY LISTING REGION1 ASSET GROWTH RATES AND # OF ETPs1 (# ETPs) Equity Fixed Income Commodities & Others Year-Over-Year Growth in # ETPs 150 Bubble size = Assets ($bn) Asia Pacific $201 100 Europe $468 50 0 (30%) U.S. $1,984 Canada $62 Latin America $8 (15%) 0% 15% Year-Over-Year AUM Growth 30% LISTING REGION VIEW1 Net Flows ($bn) By Listing Region Jan 2015 Annual 2014 Jan 2015 Assets ($bn) % Asset Market Share Number of Products US (2.6) 244.9 1,984.3 71.5 1,650 Europe 13.7 61.8 467.9 16.9 2,244 Canada 0.3 9.1 61.8 2.2 352 Latin America 0.3 (2.0) 7.6 0.3 46 (0.2) 15.8 201.0 7.2 750 53.7 1.9 378 2,776.4 100.0 5,420 Asia Pacific Middle East and Africa Global ETF Total Not available 11.6 Not available 329.6 FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL AND MEDIA USE ONLY - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION [6] Fund Inflows and Outflows ETPs as of January 2015 (US$bn)1 Product_Name WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity 2015 YTD Bloomberg Ticker Inflows BB_Ticker_S.. MTD Flows (US$bn) HEDJ US 2.9 Jan-15 Current AUM Assets (US$bn) 9.0 SPDR Gold GLD US 2.0 30.7 Vanguard S&P 500 VOO US 1.6 28.3 Vanguard Total Stock Market VTI US 1.4 50.8 db-X MSCI EAFE Currency-Hedged Equity DBEF US 1.2 3.0 United States Oil USO US 1.2 2.3 iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF CSSPX SW 1.1 11.1 Health Care Select SPDR XLV US 0.9 13.0 iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF HYG US 0.8 15.3 Market Vectors Gold Miners GDX US 0.8 7.5 13.9 171.1 Grand Total ETPs as of January 2015 (US$bn)1 Product_Name SPDR S&P 500 2015 YTD Bloomberg Ticker Outflows BB_Ticker_S.. MTD Flows (US$bn) SPY US (28.0) Jan-15 Current AUM Assets (US$bn) 181.7 PowerShares QQQ QQQ US (3.0) 36.6 Financial Select SPDR XLF US (2.1) 17.7 iShares FTSE A50 China Index ETF 2823 HK (2.0) 8.9 iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM US (1.7) 27.7 Huatai-Pinebridge CSI 300 510300 CH (1.4) 3.8 iShares MSCI Japan ETF EWJ US (1.3) 13.6 iShares MSCI ACWI ETF ACWI US (1.0) 6.3 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF EEM US (1.0) 31.4 SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust DIA US (0.8) 11.8 (42.3) 339.5 Grand Total FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL AND MEDIA USE ONLY - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION [7] Equity ETP Flows by Exposure Exposure Equity US Large cap Mid cap Small cap/Micro cap Total market/Extended Market Preferred stock US size & style total Basic Materials Consumer Cyclicals Consumer Non-cyclicals Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Real Estate Technology Telecommunications Utilities Others US sector total US high dividend / other strategy US total Canada North America regional equity Large Cap Mid/Small Cap Total Market Pan European size & style total Pan European sector Pan European strategy Europe Pan European total Germany U.K. Other European countries Europe single country total Europe total Japan Asia-Pacific Other Asia-Pacific Asia-Pacific total Broad developed markets (including Global/Global ex-US) Developed markets total Broad emerging markets Regional emerging markets China South Korea Emerging markets Mexico India Other EM Countries EM single country total Emerging markets total Equity total Jan 2015 2015 YTD Flows ($bn) Flows ($bn) (27.5) (27.5) 1.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.7 (22.0) (22.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.4) (0.4) 0.3 0.3 1.7 1.7 (3.8) (3.8) 2.4 2.4 (0.9) (0.9) 1.1 1.1 (0.0) (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 2.5 2.5 (18.3) (18.3) (1.0) (1.0) 0.1 0.1 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 5.6 7.6 7.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 8.4 8.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.1 2.2 2.2 10.6 10.6 3.2 3.2 0.5 0.5 3.7 3.7 4.8 4.8 (0.1) (0.1) (2.3) (2.3) (0.1) (0.1) (5.5) (5.5) 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 (4.0) (4.0) (6.4) (6.4) (6.5) (6.5) FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL AND MEDIA USE ONLY - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION Assets ($bn) 577.8 98.0 93.9 94.6 16.9 881.1 5.5 18.4 16.1 41.7 33.4 43.4 15.4 47.0 31.3 1.5 14.0 2.0 269.7 92.0 1,242.9 28.5 9.6 43.3 3.5 60.1 107.0 14.6 3.8 125.9 28.2 21.4 29.1 78.6 203.9 138.9 43.2 182.0 239.0 1,907.1 111.9 6.1 68.5 20.1 7.3 11.7 26.0 133.6 251.6 2,158.7 # ETPs 244 46 76 72 5 443 15 19 13 49 41 36 20 23 30 6 13 8 273 88 804 98 25 85 27 95 207 143 31 381 75 65 148 288 669 190 162 352 511 2,459 126 70 230 126 24 59 223 662 858 3,317 [8] Fixed Income & Other ETP Flows by Exposure Exposure Commodities Fixed Income Corporate Government Broad / aggregate Govt / corporate Inflation Emerging markets Municipal Mortgage Money market Other Fixed Income Fixed income total Precious Metals Gold Silver Other Precious metals total Broad market Energy Agriculture Industrial metals Commodities total Alternatives Other Investment grade High yield Corporate total US Treasury Sovereign Government total Alternatives total Asset allocation Currency Israel ETP Global ETP total Volatility Other Jan 2015 Flows ($bn) 2015 YTD Flows ($bn) 3.8 2.3 6.1 2.1 1.8 3.9 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.6 (0.1) 0.3 0.1 13.0 2.3 (0.1) (0.1) 2.2 (0.3) 3.7 (0.2) (0.2) 5.2 (0.2) (0.0) (0.2) 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.6 3.8 2.3 6.1 2.1 1.8 3.9 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.6 (0.1) 0.3 0.1 13.0 2.3 (0.1) (0.1) 2.2 (0.3) 3.7 (0.2) (0.2) 5.2 (0.2) (0.0) (0.2) 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.6 FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL AND MEDIA USE ONLY - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION Assets ($bn) 102.5 47.0 149.6 47.9 45.2 93.1 66.4 38.8 26.1 24.4 16.1 9.1 4.4 14.3 442.2 67.5 17.9 9.7 95.1 13.1 10.8 3.9 1.5 124.4 3.7 3.0 6.7 6.2 4.9 33.3 2,776.4 # ETPs 154 59 213 80 261 341 43 33 36 86 37 9 19 36 853 127 70 81 278 110 203 186 116 893 47 66 113 78 166 0 5,420 [9] Endnotes The ETP (or exchange traded product) category encompasses any portfolio exposure security that trades intra-day on an exchange. The data for this report are captured from a number of sources by BlackRock including provider websites, fund prospectuses, provider press releases, provider surveys, Bloomberg, the National Stock Exchange, Strategic Insight Simfund, Wind, and the Bank of Israel. All amounts are reported in US dollars. Flows are derived using daily net asset values and shares outstanding using the most recent data we can capture at month-end. For products with cross-listings, we attribute net flows and assets to the primary listings. For Middle East and Africa, net flows data is not available. Assets are derived using shares outstanding and prices at the end of each month (or the closest date available). Where price is not available, we use an approximation. For ETPs listed in Israel, product level detail is not available. Product level information is aggregated by provider, asset class, exposure, region listed and replication method to produce the various analyses in the report. 1. Data is as of January 29, 2015 for Europe and January 30, 2015 for the US, Canada, Latin America, Israel, and some Asia ETPs. Some Asia ETP data is as of December 30, 2014. Global ETP flows and assets are sourced using shares outstanding and net asset values from Bloomberg for the US, Canada, Europe, Latin America and some ETPs in Asia. Middle East ETP assets are sourced from the Bank of Israel. ETP flows and assets in China are sourced from Wind. Inflows for years prior to 2010 are sourced from Strategic Insights Simfund. Asset classifications are assigned by the BlackRock based on product definitions from provider websites and product prospectuses. Other static product information is obtained from provider websites, product prospectuses, provider press releases, and provider surveys. Market returns are sourced from Bloomberg. 2. Bloomberg (SPX US Index) 3. Bloomberg (EURUSD) 4. Bloomberg (DXY Currency) 5. Chicago Board Options Exchange 6. Bloomberg (SPY US Equity) 7. 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