International Relations
Aula 13
Ciencia Politica
CGAE
FGV-EAESP
Kurt von Mettenheim
Topics
1) Core Theories of International Relations
a) Realism vs Neoliberalism
b) International Society/Constructivism
c) Bureaucratic Politics
2) International Political Economy
19th Century  Global Imbalances 2010
3) Brazilian International Relations
4) Questions for Discussion
Core Traditions
Realism: Thucydides, Hobbes, Waltz
International Politics = Anarchy
States Maximize Interests
Liberalism: Wilson, UN,
Cooperation via Norms & Institutions Better
Imperialism & World System:
Problem = N-S not E-W
Bureaucratic Politics: Foreign Policy NOT Caused by Global
Politics, Must Open Black Box
Classics of Realism
Thucydides: The Peloppynisian War
Inter-State Equilibrium via WAR
16th-17th Century: Diplomacy/Permanent Army as
Bureaucracy and State
19th Century Equilibrium via Diplomacy
20th Century
WWI = end of Multi-Polar Equilibrium via Diplomacy
Woodrow Wilson & League of Nations = Liberalism
1945-1990 Cold War & Bi-Polar World
1990-2001
US Hegemony  Stability?
Multilateralism, UN / EU
Transational Politics – norms & construction
of institutions (NGO´s, AntiGlobalization)
2001 Terror & Democratization
Material From Reading
New Handbook of Political Science
• Debate 1) Original "idealism" versus "realism.“
• Debate 2) "scientific" approach versus
"traditional" approach.
• Debate 3) “neo-realism“ versus “globalists /
pluralists / structuralists / Neo-Marxists / PostPositivists / interdependence / world society /
critical IR Theory”
Kenneth Waltz (Realism) versus "bureaucratic
politics," "interdependence" and other
subnational and transnational concerns
Realism
Morgenthau (1947) Waltz (1979) :
GLOBAL ANARCHY / STATES 
State strategy = maximizing interests
3 "Hobbesian" motives:
1) Security;
2) Satisfy Domestic Economic
Demands (of politically significant
domestic population);
3) Enhance international prestige.
Core ideas of Realism
International system = anarchy & self-help.
No single effective central authority
 nation-state must protect the economic
and security interests of its citizens.
External environment determines policy.
Uncertainty fosters "Hobbesian fear“.
Hobbesian Fear
If one state belligerent in an anarchic
system, then all potentially affected states
must either follow a realpolitik strategy in
return or be protected by another state.
States are in a continuous state of
preparedness to use force for either
offensive or defensive purposes
Government strategy =
1) maximize power (Bull 1977)
2) avoid the development of power
elsewhere (Waltz)
3) avoid relationships in which it is obliged
to play a subordinate role (Galtung
1964)
4) prevent others from making advances in
their relative capabilities (Grieco).
Critics of Realism
1) Justifies existing power structure (Peterson 1992);
2) Reifies causality (Ashley 1986); open process  can
change…
3) Underestimates importance of political discourses (Enloe
1994; Campbell 1992);
must justify power  legitimacy
4) Underestimates subjective meanings, rules and norms
(Hollis and Smith 1990); human behavior set in
meaning…
5) “National Interests” too broad, ad hoc concept
Complexity and Post-Realism
Important questions in international relations:
1) How will different factions inside the opposing country react? NEED
EMPIRICAL INFORMATION
2) 2) Will policy strengthen the position of friendly factions in the opposing
country? NEED TWO LEVEL GAME MODEL…
3) Will policy be seen as a precedent or sui generis? MARKETING/PUBLIC
RELATIONS SHAPES PERCEPTIONS
4) How will public opinion in the opposing country react? XENOPHOBIA OR
PEACE?
5) How will domestic public opinion react? XENOPHOBIA OR PEACE?
6) How will the decision-maker's own party react? PRO? CONTRA?
7) Will this option effect third parties?
8) Will policy  Desired outcome?
Core Ideas of Neo-Liberalism
The international system is an anarchic, self-help
one. The states that comprise it are selfregarding interest-maximizers.
Interdependence mitigates conflict by
(a) economic interpenetration in terms of
international trade and financial flows;
(b) nation-states' collective interest in avoiding a
major nuclear war; and
(c) nation-states' collective interest in avoiding
ecological catastrophe.
Renovação liberal: Joseph Nye, Soft Power: The
Means to Success in World Politics. 2004
Core Ideas of
International Society / Constructionism
1) Cooperation = Mutual Benefit
2) Norms/Values are basis of  “regimes”
in Policy Spheres
Human Rights
International Trade GATT, WTO
Multinational Enterprises, Code of Conduct
“Equator Principles” for
sustainable finance
Third Tradition in Political Science:
Bureaucratic Politics
Realism and Liberalism predict policy from international system...
Must Open Black Box of Government
(via Organizational Theory)
Explain Foreign Policy?
1) Agencies? Organizations? Interests?
2) Agenda/actors
3) Meetings & decision making
Classic Example: Graham Allison, Essence of Decision
Cuban Missile Crisis: Realism / Liberalism wrong...
Details of Negotiations = Organizations/Actors/Process...
International Political Economy
Competing Theories =
Liberalism
Imperialism
World System, Wallerstein
Dependent Development, Cardoso & Falleto
“Regimes” = Institutions Intl Policy Sectors
Desenvolvimento e Dependência na
América Latina F.H. Cardoso e E. Falletto
• Crítica ao Liberalismo
– Economia: Troca, Cepal...
– Sociologia: Tradição - Moderno
• Crítica ao Marxismo
– Críse Econômica e Revolução
Sistema Mundial
(Immanuel Wallerstein)
ECON
Sociedade Política
---------------------------------------------------1500 – 1750 Mercantil
Extração
Colônia
1750 – 1914 Troca
Oligarquia
1914 – 1945 Ruptura/ISI Cl. Média
1945 – 1973 Multi´s/IED
1973+
Global
Imperialismo
Pop-Nacional
Nova Burg. Aut. Bur.
Dividida
Pós-Transição
Método Estrutural-Histórico
• Centro e Periferia do Sistema Mundial
• Foca: Economia – Classes Sociais –
Grupos Políticos
• Marxismo Metodológico:
• Aonde Vem o Dinheiro?
• Aonde Vai o Dinheiro?
Seqüência de Desenvolvimento
Brasileiro
• Situações Básicas de Desenvolvimento
Dependente:
•
•
•
•
Enclave
Controle Nacional (Acordo de Taubaté)
ISI e Populismo Nacional
IED e Desenvolvimento Dependente
Século 19 de Polanyi
Quatro Pilares do Sistema Internacional
1815-1914
•
•
•
•
1)
2)
3)
4)
Equilíbrio de Poder entre Estados
Padrão Ouro: Câmbio de Moedas
Mercado Auto Regulador
Estado Liberal-Constitucional
(Karl Polanyi, A Grande Transformação...)
Auto-Regulação Impedido, 1879-1929
Pressões para ruptura 1920s
•
•
•
•
Desemprego
Tensões entre Classes
Desvalorização de Moedas
Rivalidades Imperialistas
• 1914 começa entre guerras
• 1931-1933 acabou padrão ouro
International Political Economy,
1945-2000
• Bretton Woods Institutions 1945
IMF, International Monetary Fund
IBRD, World Bank
• GATT (based on the US Reciprocal Trade
Agreements Act of 1934).
Without Agriculture
• Marshall Plan Aid & European Recovery
Brazil/Latin America = Private
Investment
The 1960s. ‘Peaceful Coexistence’
and competition
(i) OEEC becomes OECD
(ii) New-style GATT ‘rounds’ beginning with the Kennedy
Round 1962-67.
(iii) Weakening of the dollar— The political economy of
pegged exchange- rate systems.
(iv) UK fails first attempt to join EEC (1961-63).
Gaullism. USSR & E. Europe aping EEC with COMECON
(or CMEA).
(v) Liberalisation of capital movements. MNCs and
international credit. The Eurocurrency markets. Centralbank co-operation.
Intl. Political Economy: 1970s
(i) Dollar devaluation 1971-73 and the end of the Bretton
Woods system (as well as of the first attempt to move
to EMU).
(ii) North Atlantic inflation and slower growth, aggravated
by
(iii) The oil shocks, especially 1973-74. OPEC
(iv) “the end of the Golden Age” a very North-Atlanticcentred view. Contrast the NICs, especially in E. Asia,
as well as Japan.
 Diffusion of growth.
Intl. Political Economy: 1980s
(i) The anti-inflation struggle. The second oil shock (1979-80).
(ii) The EMS – attempted restoration of regional pegged rates in
Europe.
(iii) The world debt crisis 1982 ff. Paul Volcker and US monetary
leadership.
(iv) Development of the new liberalism—Thatcherism and the
Washington consensus.
(v) Dénouement in the second half of the decade. Inflation overcome.
The oil-price collapse 1986. Partial LDC debt write-offs (Baker &
Brady Plans). Recovery of international lending flows, and especially
of MNC investment.
(vi) The collapse of Communism. China.
Intl. Political Economy:1990s
NAFTA and Regional Trade Pacts
Washington Consensus: Privatization and
Liberalization
Regional Development Accords
Regional Development Banks
New Democracies, Post-Transition
2000-2006
Displacement of Political Economy by
Security and War : 11 September 2001
Reform of United Nations
GATT / WTO Negotiations
International Order & Rogue Empire
Moedas de reserva
Dual Deficit
Brazil & International Relations
Western Alliance
WWII + Inter-American Treaties
International Organizations
UN
WTO
FTAA
Política Externa Brasileira
1) Plataforma Global de Comércio: Escala de
Mercado, Posição América do Sul, Alternativa à
China/Índia
2) Integração Regional, Mercosul >
3) Agenda de paises emergentes e em
desenvolvimento em organizações internacionais
(ONU, OMC, OMT, GATT)
4) Histórico de Aliança Hemisférica com EUA  SulSul, BRIC…
Política Externa Brasileira
5) Princípio de Não Intervenção e resolução pacífica
6) Procura de nova liderança internacional
* Irã, Haiti, Conselho de Segurança
* Escalada Militar, America Latina
http://www.itamaraty.gov.br/
Questions
Which theory do you think makes the most
reasonable assumptions about 21st
Century world politics?
Realism?
Liberalism?
Constructionism/International Society?
Qual é a teoria que mais descreve a política
exterior brasileira? Liberalismo, Realismo,
política burocrática, imperialismo?
Explore International Relations
University of Michigan Political Science Resources:
http://www.lib.umich.edu/govdocs/psintl.html
http://www.etown.edu/vl/index.html (Virtual Library of International
Affairs Resources)
http://www.un.org/ (UN homepage)
http://www.nato.int/ (NATO homepage)
http://www.ifrc.org/home.htm (Red Cross homepage)
http://www.iiss.org (International Institute for Strategic Studies)
http://www.csis.org/ (Centre for Strategic and International Studies)
http://europa.eu.int/index-en.htm (Europa, the European Union's
server)
Journals
International Organization; International Affairs;
World Politics;
The World Economy;
International Studies Quarterly;
The Journal of World Trade;
The Journal of Common Market Studies;
The Journal of European Public Policy;
American Political Science Review;
Review of International Political Economy;
Journal of Economic Perspectives;
World Development.