R O BE R T SC H UM A N C E NTR E FO R A DVA NC E D STU DIE S , E U R O PEA N U NIVE R SITY INSTITU TE
CURRICULUM VITAE
PEDRO MIGUEL SOARES BRINCA
REFERENCES
Flodé n, M artin (s upe rvis or) – Swe di sh Ce ntral Bank (on l e av e f rom Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty )
marti n.f l ode [email protected] ne .su .se
A g uiar-Conraria , L uis – Sc hool of Ec onomi c s and Bu si ne ss, U ni v e rsi ty of Mi nho
l f agu i [email protected] ee g.u mi nho.pt
Has s le r, Joh n – Insti tu te f or Inte rnati onal E c onomi c Stu die s , Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty (IIE S)
j ohn. hassl e [email protected] i i e s.su .se
Krus e ll , Pe r – Insti tu te f or Inte rnati onal E c onomi c Stu die s , Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty (IIE S)
marti n.f l ode [email protected] ne .su .se
M c G rattan, E lle n – De partme nt of E c onomi c s, Uni v e rsi ty of Mi nne sota.
e [email protected] u mn.e du
HIGHLIGHTS - MACROECONOMICS, MACROECON OMETRICS, TIME SERIES
2 0 1 4 -1 5
Je an M onne t Fe llow at the Robe rt Sc hum a nn A dvanc e d Studie s Ce nte r, E urope an
Unive rs ity I ns titute , Flore nc e .
2014
Fis c al M ultiplie rs in the 2 1 s t Ce ntury (Job M arke t Pape r), toge the r wi th Hans Hol te r, Pe r
Kru se l l and Lau re nce Mal af ry . Su bj e c t to re v ie w by ref e re e s and e di tors, the pape r i s to be
pu bl i she d i n t he C arne gi e -Roc he ste r C onf e re nc e Se ri e s on P u bl i c P ol i cy i n the Jou rnal of
Mone tary E c onomi c s Vol u me 63 :1 , Janu ary 2 0 16
A bs trac t: The re ce nt e xpe ri e nc e of a Gre at Re cessi on has brou ght the e f f e c tiv e ne ss of f i sc al
pol i c y bac k i nto f oc u s. F i sc al mu l ti pl i e rs do, h owe v e r, v ary gre atly ov e r ti me and pl ac e .
Ru nni ng VAR s f or a l arge nu mbe r of c ou ntri e s, we docu me nt a strong c orre l ati on be twe e n
we al th i ne q u ali ty and the magni tu de of f i sc al mu l ti pl i e rs. To e xpl ai n thi s f i ndi ng, we de v e l op a
l i f e -c yc l e , ov e rl appi ng ge ne rati ons e c ono my wi th u ni nsu rabl e l abor mark e t ri sk . We c al i brate
ou r mode l to matc h k ey c harac te ri sti c s of a nu mbe r of OE C D e c onomi e s, i nc l u di ng the
di stri bu ti on of wage s and we al th, soc i al se c u ri ty , taxe s a nd de bt and stu dy the e f f e c ts of
c hangi ng pol i c i e s and v ari ou s f orms of i ne q u al i ty on the f i sc al mu l ti pl i e r. We fi nd that t he
f i sc al mu l ti pli e r i s hi ghl y se nsi ti v e to the f rac ti on of the p opu l ati on w ho f ac e bi ndi ng c re di t
c onstrai n ts and al s o ne gati v e l y re l ate d to the av e rage we al th le v el i n the e c onomy . Thi s
e xpl ai ns the c orre l ati on be twe e n we al th i ne qu al i ty and f i sc al mu l ti pl ie rs.
2 0 0 7 -1 3
L e c ture r, The s is Supe rvis or and Te ac hing As s is tan t at the BSc , MSc and P hD l e v e l f or 13
c ou rse s wi th 3 0 5 hou rs of te ac hi ng/le c tu ri ng e xpe ri e nce i n the cl assro om a nd 3 the si s
su pe rv i se d and suc ce ssf u l ly de fe nde d (wi th di stinc ti on) . C ou rse e v al u ati ons prov i de d u pon
re q ue st (Mac roe c onomi c s, Mi c roec onomi c s, Ti me Se ri e s , Ec onome tri c s, Mac roe c onome tri c s) .
2014
Dis tortions in the Ne oc las s ic al G row th M ode l: A Cros s Country A naly s is
Jou rnal of E c onomi c Dy nami c s and C o ntr ol , V ol u me 4 7 , Oc tobe r 2 01 4 , P age s 1 -19 , ISSN
0 1 6 5 -18 8 , http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2014.07.0139
2014
Chapte r f or the Se c ond E dition of Handbook of M ac rec onomic s , E lse vie r
Joi nt wi th Varadaraj a n C hari , P atri c k Ke hoe and El l e n Mc Grattan.
E di tors: Haral d U hl i g and John Tay l or , f orthc omi ng spri ng 2 0 1 6 .
2013
Stockholm Doctoral Course Program in Economics, Econometrics and Finance (SDPE)
(Joint Ph.D. program by the University of Stockholm and Stockholm School of Economics)
PhD in Economics – Essays in Quantitative Macroeconomics
2013
Opponent: Professor Ellen McGrattan, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, October 8th 2013
“ M one tary Bus ines s Cy c le Ac c ounting for Sw ede n ”
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics. Volume 13, Issue 1, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1935-1690, ISSN (Print) 21946116, DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2013-0027, October 2013
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R O BE R T SC H UM A N C E NTR E FO R A DVA NC E D STU DIE S , E U R O PEA N U NIVE R SITY INSTITU TE
EDUCATION
2013
Stockholm Doctoral Course Program in Economics, Econometrics and Finance (SDPE)
(Joint Ph.D. program by the University of Stockholm and Stockholm School of Economics)
Ph.D. in Economics
2 0 1 2 -1 3
2 0 0 8 -09
2 0 0 5 -06
Faculty of Economics, Centre of Economics and Finance, University of Porto
Visiting Scholar
Department of Economics, University of Minnesota
Visiting Scholar
De partme nt of E c onomi c s, U ni v e rsi ty of Stoc k holm
Master of Science in Economics and Business Administration, with a major in Economics
§ Classification of Val Godkand (with Honours)
2 0 0 3 -05
De partme nt of E c onomi c s, U ni v e rsi ty of Stoc k hol m
Bachelor of Science in Economics and Business Administration with a major in Economics
§ Classification of Val Godkand (with Honours)
2 0 0 3 -04
De partme nt of E c onomi c s, U ni v e rsi ty of Stoc k hol m
Socrates / Eras mus Exchange Program
§ Val Godkand (with Honours) in 6 out of 6 courses
RELEVANT PROFESSIONAL AND TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2 0 1 4 -1 5
Je an M onne t Fe llow (pos t -doc ) at the Robe rt Sc h umann A dvanc e d St udie s Ce nte r,
E urope an Unive rs ity I ns titute , Flore nc e .
2 0 1 3 -1 4
L e c ture r – De partme nt of E c onomi c s , Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty
L e c ture r of M Sc Time Se rie s Ec onome tric s , f or the MSc i n E c onomi c s and MSc i n Bank i ng
and F i nanc e , De partme nt of E c ono mi c s and Stoc k hol m Bu si ne ss Sc ho ol , Stoc k hol m
U ni v e rsi ty . (2 4 le c tu re hou rs)
L e c ture r of E mpiric al M e thods in E c onomic s I , f or the BSc i n E c onomi c s, De partme n t of
E c onomi c s, Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty (2 0 l ec tu re hou rs).
The s is Supe rvis or – De partme nt of E c onomi c s, Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty
2013-2014
Optimum currency area and business cycle synchronization across the U.S. States, MSc thesis in
Economics by Haukur Vidar Gudjonsson. Grade: Pass with Distinction (A).
2013-2014
Does money growth improve inflation forecasts? An out-of-sample forecast comparison for
Sweden, MSc thesis in Economics by Andreas Collet. Grade: Pass with Distinction (A).
2013-2014
Estimating a Taylor rule under zero lower bound interest rates, BSc thesis in Economics by
Hermione Heffernan and Nicklas Cervin. Grade: Pass with Distinction (B).
2013-
Re f e re e
- Jou rnal of Bu si ne ss Cy cl e Anal y si s and Me asu reme nt
- Jou rnal of Mac roec onomi c s
2012-
A s soc iate Re s e arc he r (E xte rnal) at the Ce nte r f or E c onomic s and Financ e , Fac ulty of
E c onomic s of Porto, Unive rs ity of Porto.
2013
A djunc t L e c ture r , De partme nt of E c onomi c s , Sto c k hol m U ni v e rsi ty .
2013
I ntroduc tion to Quantita tive M e thods in M ac roe c onomics w ith M atL ab L e c ture r ,
i nte nsi v e MSc /P hD c ou rse mi ni ste re d at the F ac u lty of Ec onomi c s, U ni v e rsi ty of C oi mbra. (1 6
hou rs).
2 0 1 2 -1 3
M Sc E mpiric al M ac roe conomic s E xamine r , for the MSc i n E c onomi c s , De part me nt of
E c onomi c s, Stoc k hol m, U ni v e rsi ty .
2 0 1 1 -1 2
M Sc Time Se rie s E c onome tric s G ues t L ec ture r, f or the MSc i n E c onomi c s and MSc i n
Bank i ng and F i nanc e , De partme nt of E c onomi c s and Stoc k hol m Bu si ne ss Sc ho ol , Stoc k hol m
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R O BE R T SC H UM A N C E NTR E FO R A DVA NC E D STU DIE S , E U R O PEA N U NIVE R SITY INSTITU TE
U ni v e rsi ty . (3 l ec tu re hou rs – Introdu c ti on to VARs) C ou rse e v alu ati ons av ai l abl e u pon
re q ue st
2 0 1 1 -1 2
M Sc Time Se rie s E conome tric s Te ac hing A ss is tant f or Mark u s Jä ntti , f or t he MSc i n
E c onomi c s and MSc i n Bank i ng and Fi nanc e , De partme nt of E c onomi c s and St oc k hol m
Bu si ne ss Sc hool , Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty . (5 4 hou rs). C ou rse ev al u ati ons av ai l abl e u pon re qu e st.
2 0 1 1 -1 2
M Sc M e thodolog y Se minar L e c ture r – Simulation Te c hnique s w ith M atL ab , MSc i n
E c onomi c s, De partme n t of E c onomi c s a nd M Sc i n Bu si ne ss Admi ni stra ti on , Stoc k hol m
Bu si ne ss Sc h ool , Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty . (8 hou rs) C ou rse ev al u ati ons av ai l abl e u pon re qu e st.
2 0 1 1 -1 2
M Sc M ac roec onomic s Te ac hing A ss is tant , f or Marti n F l odé n, MSc i n E c onomi c s,
De partme nt of E c onomi c s, Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty . (2 4 hou rs) C ou rse e v al u ati ons av ai l abl e
u pon re q u e st.
2 0 1 1 -1 2
M Sc M e thodology Se minar L e c ture r – A Prime r in M atL ab , MSc i n E c ono mi c s,
De partme nt of E c onomi c s and MSc i n Bu si ne ss Admi ni stra ti on, Stoc k hol m Bu si ne ss Sc hool ,
Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty . (8 hou rs). C ou rse ev al u ati ons av ai l abl e u pon re qu e st.
2 0 1 0 -1 1
M Sc Time Se rie s E c onome tric s G ues t L ec ture r, f or the MSc i n E c onomi c s and MSc i n
Bank i ng and F i nanc e , De partme nt of E c onomi c s and Stoc k hol m Bu si ne ss Sc ho ol , Stoc k hol m
U ni v e rsi ty . (3 hou rs – Introdu c ti on to VAR s ) C ou rse e v alu ati ons av ai l abl e u pon re q ue st.
2 0 1 0 -1 1
M Sc Time Se rie s E conome tric s Te ac hing A ss is tant f or Mark u s Jä ntti , f or t he MSc i n
E c onomi c s and MSc i n Bank i ng and Fi nanc e , De partme nt of E c onomi c s and St oc k hol m
Bu si ne ss Sc hool , Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty . (5 4 hou rs). C ou rse ev al u ati ons av ai l a bl e u pon re qu e st.
2 0 1 0 -1 1
M Sc M ac roec onomic s Te ac hing A ss is tant , f or Marti n F l odé n, MSc i n E c onomi c s,
De partme nt of E c onomi c s, Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty . (2 4 hou rs) C ou rse e v al u ati ons av ai l abl e
u pon re q u e st.
2 0 0 9 -1 0
M Sc Time Se rie s E c onome tric s Te ac hing Assi stant f or Matt he w Li ndq v i st, f or the MSc i n
E c onomi c s and MSc i n Bank i ng and Fi nanc e , De partme nt of E c onomi c s and St oc k hol m
Bu si ne ss Sc hool , U ni v e rsi ty of Stoc k hol m . (5 4 hou rs) C ou rse e v al u ati ons av ai l abl e u pon
re q ue st.
2 0 0 9 -1 0
Re s e arc h I nte rn at the E urope an Ce nt ral Ban k, E xte rnal De ve lopme nts Divis ion , u nde r
the su pe rv i si on of Ste phane De e s, P ri nci pal Ec onomi st
2 0 0 7 -08
PhD E c onome tric s Te ac hing A ss is tant f or Dav i d Strombe rg and P e r P e tte rson -Li dbo m,
Stoc k hol m D oc toral P rogram i n E c onomi c s (SP DE ), Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty an d Stoc k hol m
Sc hool of E c onomi c s (9 hou rs). C ou rse e v al u ati ons av ai l abl e u pon re q ue st.
2 0 0 7 -08
M Sc M ac roe c onomics Te ac hing A s sis tant f or Anne Bosc hi ni , MSc i n E c onomi c s ,
De partme nt of E c onomi c s, S toc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty (6 hou rs) . C ou r se e v al u ati ons av ai l abl e u pon
re q ue st.
2 0 0 7 -08
M Sc M ic roe c onomic s Te ac hing A s sis tant f or An n-S of i e Kol m, MSc i n E c on omi c s ,
De partme nt of E c onomi c s, Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty (1 4 hou rs). C ou rse e v al u ati ons av ai l abl e
u pon re q u e st.
2 0 0 5 -06
C onsu me r Inde bte dne ss Obse rv atory of the C e ntre f or Soc i al Stu di e s of the F acu l ty of
E c onomi c s of C oi mbra U ni v e rsi ty
Associate Researcher
Grant f rom the Sc i e nc e and Tec hnol ogy F ou ndati on (STF ):
§ U ne mpl oy me nt and Inde bte dne ss - P roj e c t C oordi nator: M. M. Marq u e s
- P roj e c t re port f or the STF (wi th C atari na F rade, C l au di a Lope s, Sara Magal hãe s and C l au di a
Nogu e i ra)
§ Pilot project in financial literacy, at Institu to D. João V.
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PUBLISHED AND SUBMITTED WORK IN ECONOMICS
2014
Fis c al M ultiplie rs in the 2 1 s t Ce ntury
Su bj e c t to rev i e w by re f e re e s and e di tors, the pape r i s to be pu bl i she d i n the C arne gi e Roc he ste r C onf e re nc e Se rie s on P u bl i c P ol ic y i n the Jou rnal of Mo ne tary E c onomi c s V ol u me
6 3 :1 , Janu ary 2 0 16
A bs trac t: The re ce nt e xpe ri e nc e of a Gre at Re cessi on has brou ght the e f f e c tiv e ne ss of f i sc al
pol i c y bac k i nto f oc u s. F i sc al mu l ti pl i e rs do, h owe v e r, v ary gre atly ov e r ti me and pl ac e .
Ru nni ng VAR s f or a l arge nu mbe r of c ou ntri e s, we docu me nt a strong c orre l ati on be tw e e n
we al th i ne q u ali ty and the magni tu de of f i sc al mu l ti pl i e rs. To e xpl ai n thi s f i ndi ng, we de v e l op a
l i f e -c yc l e , ov e rl appi ng ge ne rati ons e c ono my wi th u ni nsu rabl e l abor mark e t ri sk . We c al i brate
ou r mode l to matc h k ey c harac te ri sti c s of a nu mbe r of OE C D e c o nomi e s, i nc l u di ng the
di stri bu ti on of wage s and we al th, soc i al se c u ri ty , taxe s a nd de bt and stu dy the e f f e c ts of
c hangi ng pol i c i e s and v ari ou s f orms of i ne q u al i ty on the f i sc al mu l ti pl i e r. We fi nd that t he
f i sc al mu l ti pli e r i s hi ghl y se nsi ti v e to the f rac t i on of the p opu l ati on w ho f ac e bi ndi ng c re di t
c onstrai n ts and al s o ne gati v e l y re l ate d to the av e rage we al th le v el i n the e c onomy . Thi s
e xpl ai ns the c orre l ati on be twe e n we al th i ne qu al i ty and f i sc al mu l ti pl ie rs.
2014
Dis tortions in the Ne oc las s ic al G row th M ode l: A Cros s Country A naly s is
Jou rnal of E c onomi c Dy nami c s and C o ntr ol , V ol u me 4 7 , Oc tobe r 2 01 4 , P age s 1 -19 , ISSN
0 1 6 5 -18 8 9 , http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2014.07.013
A bs trac t: Thi s pape r i nv e sti gate s the pro pe rti e s of di storti on s th at ma ni f e st the mse l v e s as
we dge s i n the e q ui l i bri u m c ondi ti ons of the ne oc l assi c al growth m ode l ac ross a s ampl e of 2 2
OE C D c ou ntri e s f or the 1 9 7 0 -2 0 1 1 pe ri od. The q u anti tati v e rel e v ance of e ac h we dge and i ts
robu st ne ss i n ge ne rati ng f l u c tu ati ons i n mac roe c onomi c aggre gate s i s asse sse d. T he e f f ic i e nc y
we dge prov e s to be de te rmi nant i n e na bl i ng mo de l s to re pl i c ate mov e me nts i n ou tpu t a nd
i nv e stme nt, whi l e the l abor we dge i s i mportan t to pre di c t f l u c tu ati ons i n hou rs work e d.
Mode l i ng di storti on s t o t he sav i ngs de c i si on hol d s l i ttl e q u anti tati v e or q u al i tati v e rel ev anc e .
Al so, i nv e stme n t se e ms to be the harde st ag gre gate to re pl i c ate , as pre di c ti on e rrors
c onc e rni ng ou tpu t and hou rs w ork e d are ty pi c al l y one orde r of magni tu de smal l e r. The se
c onc l u si ons are stati sti c al l y si gni f ic ant ac ross the c ou ntri e s i n the sampl e and are not l i mi te d
to ou tpu t dr ops . F i nal l y , the ge ographi c al di stanc e be twe e n c ou ntri e s and the i r de gree of
ope nne ss t o trade are shown to c on tai n i nf ormat i on wi th re gard to the we dge s, stre ssi ng the
i mporta nc e of i nte rnati o nal me c hani sm s of trans mi ssi o n be twe e n di stor ti on s t o t he
e q ui l i bri u m c ondi ti ons of the ne oc l assi c al growth mode l .
2013
“ M one tary Bus ines s Cy c le Ac c ounting for Sw ede n ”
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics. Volume 13, Issue 1, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1935-1690, ISSN (Print) 21946116, DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2013-0027, October 2013
A bs trac t: “ Whe n c re ati ng c ompe ti ng mode l s of e c onomi c f lu c tu ati ons, re se arc he rs ty pi c al ly
i ntrodu c e f ri c ti ons i n t he i r mode l s ai mi ng to re p l i c ate the obse rv e d mov e me nts i n t he data.
Thi s pa pe r i mpl e me nts a bu si ne s s c y c l e acc ou nti ng proc e du re f or the Swe di sh e c on omy . Bot h
the 1 9 9 0 's and 2 0 0 8 rec e ssi ons are gi ve n a spe c i al f oc u s. E vi de nce i s prov i de d f or prope rti e s
that stru c tu ral e xte nsi ons to the bu si ne s s c y c l e mode l ne e d to hav e i n orde r t o re pl i c ate the
mov e me nts i n t he data. Di st orti o ns to the l a b or mark e t a nd mov e me nts i n t otal f ac tor
produ c ti v i ty are the mos t de te rmi nan t f e atu re s to be mode l e d wi th re s pe c t to re al v ari abl e s as
we l l as de v i ati ons f rom a Tay l or ru l e f or i nte re st rate se tti ng, t hou gh t he l atte r pl ay s l i ttl e rol e
f or both the 1 9 9 0 s or 2 00 8 rec e ssi ons. The di stor ti ons se e m to s hare a st ru c tu ral bre ak du ri ng
the 1 9 9 0 s c ri si s bu t not so du ri ng the c u rre nt one . ”
2013
“ Cons ume r Conf ide nc e as a Pre dic tor of Cons umption Spe nding: E vide nc e f or the
Unite d State s and E uro A re a”
Joi nt wi th Ste pha ne De e s, pu bl i she d i n the E C B Work i ng P ape r Se ri e s, av ail abl e at:
http ://www.e c b.i nt/pu b/ pdf /sc pwps/e c bwp1 3 4 9 .pdf
Final ve rs ion publis he d in International Economics 2013, Iss ue nº134 . available at
http://dx.doi.o rg /1 0 .1 0 1 6 /j.intec o.2 01 3 .05 .0 01
A bs trac t: “ F or mo st ac ade mi c s and p ol i c y mak e rs, t he de pth of t he 2 0 0 8 -0 9 f i nanc i al c ri si s,
i ts l onge v i ty and i ts i mpac t s on the re al e c onomy re su l te d f rom an e rosi o n of c o nf i de nc e . Thi s
pape r pr op ose s t o a sse ss e mpi ri c al l y the l i nk be twe e n c onsu me r se nti me nt and c o nsu mp ti on
e xpe ndi tu re s f or the U ni te d State s and the eu ro are a. It shows u nde r whi c h c i rcu mstanc e s
c onf i de nc e i ndic ators c an be a go od pre di c tor of h ou se hol d c on su mpti o n e v e n af te r
c ontrol l i ng f or i nf ormati on i n e c ono mi c f u ndame ntal s. Ov e ral l , the re sul ts show tha t, the
c onsu me r c onf i de nc e i nde x c an be i n c e rtai n c i rcu mstanc e s a go od p re di c tor of c onsu m pti o n.
In par ti c u l ar, ou t -of -sam pl e e v i de nce shows tha t the c ontri bu ti o n of c onf i de nc e i n e xpl ai ni ng
c onsu mpti o n e xpe ndi tu re s i nc re ase s whe n hou se hol d su rv ey i ndic ators f e atu re l arge c hange s,
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R O BE R T SC H UM A N C E NTR E FO R A DVA NC E D STU DIE S , E U R O PEA N U NIVE R SITY INSTITU TE
so t hat c onf i de nc e i ndi c ators c an hav e s ome i nc re asi ng pre di c ti v e powe r du r i ng su c h e pi sode s.
More ov e r, the re i s s ome e v i de nc e of a "c onf i de nce c hanne l " i n t he i nte rnati onal trans mi ssi o n
of shoc k , as U .S. c onf i d e nc e i ndic e s he l p pre di c ting c onsu me r se nti me nt i n the e u ro are a. ”
2005
“Une mploy me nt and Ove rinde bte dne s s , Contours of a Dange rous Re lations hip ” wi th
C atari na F rade , Cl áu di a Lope s, C l áu di a Nogu e i ra, and Sara Magal hãe s - Re se arc h Re port, C E S
P u bl i c ati ons 2 0 06 .
UNPUBLISHED WORK IN ECON OMICS
2006
“ The I mpac t of Public I nves tme nt in Sw e de n – A VA R A pproac h”
Maste r The si s (De partme nt of E c onomi c s of Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty )
2005
“A re Kant’ s Cate g oric al I mpe rative and I ns trume ntal Rationality Compatible ? The Cas e
f or the Pris one r’s Dile mma”
Bac he l or The si s (De partme nt of E c onomi c s of Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty )
WORK IN PROGRESS IN ECONOMICS
2014
Optimum Cu rre nc y A re a and Bus ine ss Cy c le Sync hroniz ation A c ros s U.S. State s
- j oi nt wi th Lu í s Agui ar -C onrari a, Hau k u r Gu dj onsso n and Joana So are s
P re l i mi nary proj e c t de sc ri pti on: Thi s proj e c t i nv esti gate s to what e xte nt i ndi v i du al U .S. state s'
bu si ne ss c y c l e s are si mi l ar to the nati onal bu si ne s s c y c le , u si ng wav e le t anal y si s. The de gree of
sy nc hroni zati o n i s su mme d u p i n a si ngl e v al u e , the di ssi mi l i tu de c oe f f ic i e nt, and gi v e s an
i ndi c ati on to h ow we l l state s sati sf y one of the op ti mal c u rre ncy are a c ri te ri a, si mi l ar bu si ne ss
c y cl e s. The re su l ts show th at t he U .S. state s are re mark abl y we l l sy nc hroni ze d c ompare d to the
e u ro are a. T he re i s al so a s trong and si gni f i c ant c orre l ati on be twe e n bu si ne ss c y c l e
di ssi mi l i tu de s and di stanc e be twe e n e ac h pai r of state s. T hi s i s argu e d to be du e to di st anc e
af f ec ti ng trade , i n acc ordanc e to the grav i ty model , and trade i n tu rn i nc re asi ng bu si ne ss cy cl e
sy nc hroni zati o n.
2015
Chapte r f or the Se c ond E dition of Handbook of M ac rec onomic s , E lse vie r
Joi nt wi th Varadaraj a n C hari , P atri c k Ke hoe and El l e n Mc Grattan, f ort hc omi ng Spri ng 2 0 1 6
E di tors: Haral d U hl i g and John Tay l or
2013
Bus ine s s Cy c le A cc ounting and E quilibrium I nde te rminac y : E quivale nc e Res ults
Joi nt wi th Lu i s Agu i ar -C onrari a
P re l i mi nary proj ec t de sc ri pti on: Most e q u i v ale nce re su l ts c onc e rn di re c t e xte nsi ons of the
base l i ne re al bu si ne ss c y c l e or ne w Ke y ne si an f rame work s. Thi s proj e c t ai ms i n e sta bl i shi ng
e q ui v a le nc e re su l ts be twee n the prototy pe e c ono my i n the bu si ne ss c yc l e mode l and sty l i ze d
mode l s of e qu i li bri u m i nde te rmi nac y .
PUBLISHED AND SUBMITTED WORK IN BIOSTATIST ICS
2013
“ I mplic ations of infe c tious ag e nts in ve ntilator induc e d pne umonia ”
Joi nt wi th Di as, M., P i e dade , A., Març al , P . and Ana Antu ne s.
U nde r su bmi ssi on.
2013
“ Tube rc ulos is sc re e ning and tre atme nt c omplianc e in HI V patie nts ”
Joi nt wi th Vi v e i ros, F . Margari da, M., C arv al ho, A. and Du arte , R.
P u bl i she d i n Revi st a Port ug uesa de Pneumolog i a (Eng lish Edi ti on), 1 9 (3 ),1 3 4 -13 8
2012
“ A lle rg ic Dis e ase Se ve rity and Re lations”
Joi nt wi th Vi v e i ros, F . , Gonç al v e s, I., Li ma, R., Du arte , R., P asc oal , I., Mou ra e Sá, J. and
Au rora C arv al ho.
P u bl i she d onl i ne i n Wor ld Aller g y Or g ani z at i on J our nal, 2 0 1 2 , Febr uar y; Sup(2 ), S9 4 .
2011
“ Study of the M utational State of E G FR in Diagnos tic Sample s of NSCL – Ne w
A pproac h M e thods ”
Joi nt wi th An tu ne s, A., C ampai n ha , S. , Barroso , A ., C onde , S., Ne v e s, S., Mac hado, J.C . and
Barbara P are nte .
P u bl i she d i n J our nal of T hor aci c Oncolog y 2 0 11 , V olume 6 , I ssue 6 , pp. S1 49 5 -S14 9 6
PH O NE : +3 5 1 9 1 2 2 0 6 8 8 7 ● E -M A IL : PE DR O .BR INCA @ E U I.E U ● WWW .PE DR O BR INCA .PT
R O BE R T SC H UM A N C E NTR E FO R A DVA NC E D STU DIE S , E U R O PEA N U NIVE R SITY INSTITU TE
2011
“ E pide miolog y and Survival A naly s is of L ung Canc e r – 1 0 Y e ars of E xpe rie nc e in a
Portugue s e Res piratory Re f e re nc e Ce nte r”
Joi nt wi th C ampai n ha, S., A ntu ne s, A. , Barroso , A ., C onde , S., Ne v e s, S., and Barbara P are nte .
P u bl i she d i n J our nal of T hor aci c Oncolog y 2 0 11 , V olume 6 , I ssue 6 , pp. S1 43 1 -S14 3 2
COMPLEMENTARY EDUCATION
2014
PhD c ours e in Calibration and Struc tu ral E s timation of M ac roec onome tric M ode ls –
mi ni ste re d by F abi o C anov a, f rom the E u rope an Uni v e rsi ty Insti tu te , i n F l ore nc e .
2014
Communic ation in G ame s , The ory and E xpe rime nts – mi ni ste re d by Indraj i t Ray f rom the
De partme nt of E c onomi c s of the U ni v e rsi ty of Bi rmi ngham, at U ni v e rsi dade C atól i c a do
P orto.
2014
A pplie d M ac roe c onomics Res e arc h W orks hop – mi ni ste re d by P e r Kru se ll and Tobi as
Broe r, f rom the IIE S, Hans Hol te r and Sv e tl ana Pac he nk o f rom the De partme nt of E c onomi c s
of the U ni ve rsi ty of U ppsal a, at Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty .
2014
Princ iple s of Fis c al and M one tary Polic y – mi niste re d by P e dro Te l e s , f rom the Bank of
P ortu gal and C athol i c U ni v e rsi ty of Li sbon , i n F acu l ty of Ec onomi c s of P orto , P orto.
2013
Fle xible re g res s ion throug h G e ne raliz e d A dditive M ode ls (G AM s). Biome dic al
applic ations us ing R – mi ni ste re d by C arme n Marí a C adarso -Su áre z, U ni t of Bi ostati sti c s Sc hool of Me dic i ne , U niv e rsi ty of Santi ago de C ompos te l a, at Insti tu to Su pe ri or de Saú de
P ú bl i c a da U niv e rsi dade do P orto, P orto.
2013
Unde rs tanding Clinic al Trials – mi ni ste re d by Ana Aze v e do, U ni ve rsi ty of P orto, at
Insti tu to Su pe ri or de Saú de P ú bli c a da U ni ve rsi dade do P orto , P orto.
2012
The Sc ie nc e and A rt of DSGE M ode lling: A Cours e on M ode l c ons truc tion, Calibration,
E s timation and Policy A naly s is – mi ni ste re d by P au l Le vi ne , U ni ve rsi ty of Su rrey and Bo
Y ang, f rom the London Me trop ol i tan U ni v e rsi ty and U ni v e rsi ty of Su rrey , at U niv e rsi dade do
Mi nho, E sc ol a de Ec on omi a e Ge stao, Braga.
2009
Dy nare Training Cours e – mi ni ste re d by Ste phane Adj e mi an. f rom the De partme nt of
E c onomi c s, U ni v e rsi te du Mai n, at the E u rope an C e ntral Bank
2009
PhD c ours e in Financ ial E c onomic s – mi ni ste red by El l e n Mc Grattan, f rom the U ni v e rsi ty
of Mi nne sota, at the De partme n t of E c onomi c s, U ni v e rsi ty of Mi nne sota.
2 0 0 8 -09
W orks hop in L abor Ec onomic s – Y e arly P hD c ou rse mi ni ste re d by Jose Vi c tor Ri os Ru ll , at
the De partme nt of E c onomi c s, U ni v e rsi ty of Mi nne sota
2008
PhD c ours e in Ris k Sharing and Ne w Dy namic Public Financ e – mi ni ste re d by Naray ana
Koc he rl ak ota, U ni v e rsi ty of Mi nne sota, at the De partme nt of E c onomi c s - U ni v e rsi ty of Osl o.
2008
Summe r Sc hool in Bay e s ian E c onome trics – mini ste re d by Jame s Hami l ton, U ni v e rsi ty of
C al i f orni a – San Die go, at the E sc ol a de E c onomi a e Ge stão - U ni ve rsi dade do Mi nho, Braga.
2007
Summe r Sc hool in Financ e : M ode rn Dy namic As s e t Pric ing M ode ls – mi ni ste re d by
P i e tro Ve rone si , f rom the U ni ve rsi ty of C hi c ago, at U ni v e rsi dade Nov a de Li sboa
2007
Summe r Cou rs e in Quantitative M e thods in M ac roe c onomic s and Policy A naly s is –
mi ni ste re d by E l le n Mc Gratte n , f rom the U ni v e rsity of Mi nne sota, at the E sc ol a de Ec onomi a
e Ge stão - U ni ve rsi dade do Mi nho, Braga.
2007
PhD I nte ns ive Cours e in G row th Polic y – mi ni ste re d by P hi l i pe Aghi on, f rom Harv ard
U ni v e rsi ty , at the Stoc k hol m Sc hool of E c onomi c s
2007
PhD mini -c ours e in I nte rnational M ac roec onomic s – mi ni ste re d by Ti mothy J. Ke hoe ,
f rom the U ni v e rsi ty of Mi nne sota, at the Norwe gi an Sc hool of E c onomi c s and Bu si ne ss
Admi ni stra ti on, Be rge n
PH O NE : +3 5 1 9 1 2 2 0 6 8 8 7 ● E -M A IL : PE DR O .BR INCA @ E U I.E U ● WWW .PE DR O BR INCA .PT
R O BE R T SC H UM A N C E NTR E FO R A DVA NC E D STU DIE S , E U R O PEA N U NIVE R SITY INSTITU TE
2007
PhD mini -c ours e in Topics in Se arc h The ory – mi ni ste re d by Su san Vroman and Ji m
Al bre c ht, f rom Ge orge town U ni v e rsi ty , at the Stoc k hol m U ni v e rsi ty .
2006
I nte ns ive Cours e in Spatial E c onome tric s – mi ni ste re d by Jame s Le Sage f rom the
De partme nt of F i nanc e and E c onomi c s, C ol l e ge of Bu si ne ss Admi ni stra ti on, Te xas Sta te
U ni v e rsi ty , at the F ac u l ty of E c onomi c s of the Uni v e rsi ty of C oi mbra.
LANGUAGE PROFFICIENCY
Portugue s e
Nati v e l angu age
E ng lis h
E xc e ll e nt P rofi c ie nc y , wri tte n and spok e n
§ T est of Eng li sh as For eig n L ang uag e (T OEFL ) scor e 29 0 /3 00 (9 /9 /05 ).
Spanis h
Good P rof i c i e ncy , wri tte n and spok e n
Fre nc h
Basi c P rofi c ie nc y , wri tte n and spok e n
GRANTS & AWARDS
2014
Je an M onne t Fe llow s hip f rom the E urope an Commis s ion , post-doc t oral posi ti on at the
Robe rt Sc hu mann Adv a nc e d Stu die s Insti tu te , E u rope an U ni v e rsi ty Insti tu te , F l ore nc e .
2011
Re s e arc h G rant f rom Hande ls banke n
2007
PhD Sc holars hip f rom the Foundation f or Sc ienc e and Tec hnology , Mi ni stry of Sci e nce ,
Te c hnol ogy and Hi ghe r E du c ati on, P ortu gue se Gov e rnme nt.
2006
Sti pe ndi u m u r Sti f te l se n E ri k Joahn Lj u nbe rgs U tbi l dni ngsf ond ( 1 4 /9 /2 0 06 )
§ SE K 1 0 0 .0 0 0 f or doktorands tudie r vid Nation ale konomis ka I ns titutione n
2005
P ortu gu e se Ec onomi st s Ass oc i ati on
§ 1 s t Prize for the Bes t Article in Economic Policy, I Contes t of Themes in Economics
– The Importanc e of a P ac t (wi th Ru be n Branc o)
CONFERENCE PART ICIPATIONS
2015
“ Carne g ie -Roc he s te r-NY U conf e re nc e on Public Policy 2 01 5 ” (Fis c al M ultiplie rs in the
2 1 s t Ce ntury ), wi th Hans Hol te r, P e r Kru se l l and Lau re nce Mal af ry , at the Ste rn Sc hool of
Bu si ne ss, Ne w Y ork U ni v e rsi ty , Apri l 2 4 th-2 5 t h .
2015
“ Hoove r I ns titution Handbook of M ac roe conomic s Volume 2 Confe re nc e ” , (A cc ounting
f or Bus ine s s Cyc le s w ith We dges ), wi th Varadaraj an C hari , P atri c k Ke hoe and E ll e n
Mc Grattan, i n Stanf ord, Apri l 9 t h -1 1 t h .
2015
“ Bank of Port ug al W orks hop: A djus tme nt in E urope an E c onomie s in the W ake of the
E c onomic Cris is ” , (Fisc al M ultiplie rs and W e alth He te roge ne ity in t he XXI Ce ntu ry ),
wi th Hans Hol te r, P e r Kru se l l and Lau re nce Mal afry , i n Li sbon, Janu ary 1 6 t h .
2014
8 t h M e e tings of the Portug ue s e E c onomic Journal” , (Fisc al M ultiplie rs : Does I ne quality
M atte r? ), wi th Hans Hol te r, Pe r Kru se l l and Lau re nc e Mal af ry , i n Braga, Ju l y 4 t h to 5 t h .
2014
“ I nte rnational E c onomic A ss oc iation 1 7 t h W orld Congre s s ” , (Fis c al M ultiplie rs : Does
I ne quality M atte r? ), wi th Han s Hol te r , P e r Kru s e l l and Lau re nc e Mal af ry i n Amma n, Ju ne 6 t h
to 1 0 t h .
2013
“ 5 th W orld Cong re s s on Sle e p M e dic ine ” , ( The impac t of be nz odiaz e pine use in
noc turnal O2 s atur ation of OSA S pa tie nts ), wi th Marta G onç al v e s , Ana Antu ne s, Al be rta
Le ão e Su sana Mai a i n Val e nci a, Se pte mbe r 30 t h ,
2013
“ 7 t h A nnual M e e ting of the Portugue s e Ec onomic Journal ” , (Dis tortions in the
Ne oc las s ic al G row th M ode l: A Cros s Country A naly s is ), i n U Be i ra Inte ri or, C ov i l hã, Ju l y
8 t h -9 t h ,
PH O NE : +3 5 1 9 1 2 2 0 6 8 8 7 ● E -M A IL : PE DR O .BR INCA @ E U I.E U ● WWW .PE DR O BR INCA .PT
R O BE R T SC H UM A N C E NTR E FO R A DVA NC E D STU DIE S , E U R O PEA N U NIVE R SITY INSTITU TE
2013
“ Public E c onomic The ory 2 01 3” , (Dis tortions in the Ne oc las s ic al G row th M ode l: A
Cros s Country A naly s is ), i n U C atól i c a de Li sboa, Li sbon , Ju l y 5 t h -7 t h ,
2012
“ E urope an Ne tw ork f or T raining in E c on omic s c onf e re nce ” , (M one tary Bus ine ss
Cy c le Ac c ounting f or Sw e de n ), i n U niv e rsi dad Au tonom a de Barce l ona, Barc e l ona, F e bru ary ,
9th2012.
2011
“ 1 4 t h W orld Conf e re nc e on L ung Canc e r” , (Study the mutational s tate of E G FR in
diagnos tic s ample s of NSCL C – Ne w approac h me thods ) . Joi nt wi th Antu ne s, A .,
C ampai nha, S ., C astr o, A ., Barro so, A., C onde , S ., Ne v e s, S. and P are nte , B. i n 3 r d -7 t h Ju l y ,
Amste rdam .
2011
“ 1 4 t h W orld Conf e re nc e on L ung Canc e r” , ( E pide miology and s urvival analy s is in lung
c anc e r – 1 0 y e ars of e xpe rie nc e in a Portugue s e re s piratory re f e re nc e c e nte r ). Joi nt wi t h
C ampai nha, S., A ntu ne s, A., Barro so , A., C o nde , S., Ne v e s, S. and P are nte , B. i n 3 -7 t h Ju l y ,
Amste rdam .
2010
“I nte rnational Sy mpos ium on Fore c as ting ”, (Cons ume r Conf ide nc e as a Pre dic tor of
Cons umption Spe nding : E vide nc e f or the US and E uro -A re a) , j oi n t wi th Ste ph ane De e s,
San Di e go, Ju ne .
2010
“E urope an Re s piratory Soc ie ty A nnual Congr e s s ”, (A le rgic dis e as e se ve rity : M ono vs
polis e ns itiz ation ), j oi nt wi th Vi v e i ros, F ., G on ç al v e s, I., A ntu ne s, A., Li ma, R., Du arte , R.
and C arv al ho, A.), Barc e l ona .
2009
“E urope an Re s piratory Soc ie ty A nnual Congre s s ”, (E G FR – A use f ul biomarke r? ), j oi nt
wi th An tu ne s, A. , G ome s, J. Li m a, C ., Mac ha do, J. a nd P are nte , B. i n Vi e nn a, 1 2 -1 6
Se pte mbe r .
2009
“XXXVI Re unión A nnual SOG A PA R y XXVI I G alaic odurie ns e ”, (Frac ç ão E xalada do
Óxido Nítric o e Bronc oprovoc aç ão – O q ue pode mos e s pe rar ), j oi nt wi th An tu ne s, A .,
Gome s, J., Vi v e i ros, F ., L ou re i ro, A. , Li ma, R ., C e nte no, C . and Gu i marãe s, M. , i n Santi ago de
C ompo ste l a, 2 0 -2 1 Nove mbe r, 2 0 09 .
2009
“XXXVI Re unión A nnual SOG A PA R y XXVII G alaic odurie ns e ”, (DPOC – A dptaç ão
ps ic ol óg ic a à doe nç a ), j oi nt wi th Antu ne s , A ., G ome s, Gu i marãe s, M., P asc oal , I. a nd
Tav e i ra, i n Santi ago de C omposte l a, 2 0 -2 1 Nov e mbe r .
2009
“1 6 º Cong re s so de Pne umolog ia do Norte ”, (Fe no e A s ma de E xe rc íc io – Corre laç ão? ).
Joi nt wi th Vi v e i ros, F . An tu ne s, A ., G ome s, J ., C osta, L., Gu i marãe s, M. and C e n te n o, C ., i n
P orto, 1 9 -2 0 Marc h.
2008
“XXI V Cong res s o de Pne umologia ”, (Fe NO e PC2 0 – Que e s pe rar? ).
Joi nt wi th An tu ne s, A ., G ome s, J., Gu i marãe s, M ., C o st a, L. , Mac hado, J. a nd P are nte , B., i n
P orto, 5 -8 t h De c e mbe r. P u bl i she d i n Re v i sta P ortu gu e sa de P ne u mol ogi a, v ol u me X IV,
su pl e me nto IV, De c e mbe r.
2006
“ How to manag e y our budg e t w ithout proble ms ” Se mi nar, C .M. P al mel a
Gu e st Spe ak e r (Analysi s of Consumer I ndebt edness i n Por t ug al), wi th Sara Magal hãe s, i n Bi bli ote c a
do P i nhal Nov o, 1 6 t h of Janu ary .
2006
“ E quality and Soc ial I nc lus ion in the 2 1 s t Ce ntury : De ve loping A lte rnative s - A n
inte rnational m ulti -dis c iplinary c onf e re nc e ” , Sc hool of Soc iology & Soc ial Polic y –
Que e n´s Unive rs ity Be lf as t . C onf e re nc e Spe ake r (G ender Spe ci fi c Ef fect s , At t i t udes and St r at eg i es
i n a Cont ext of Over i ndebt edness Ri sk ), wi th Sara Magal hãe s, i n We l li ngton P ark Hote l , Be l f ast,
3 r d of F e bru ary .
2006
“ 7 th I nte r-Unive rs ity G raduate Conf e re nc e : C halle nging the Bounda rie s in the Soc ial
Sc ie nc e s , Ce ntre f or Re s e arc h in the A rts , Social Sc ie nc e s and Humanitie s ” , Unive rs ity
of Cambridg e . T h e li nk bet ween nor ms , va lues an d economi c out com es. An Evo lut i onar y appr oach
(po ste r), i n C ambri dge , 2 0 t h May .
2006
“ I nte rnational Sy mpos ium on E c onomic Th e ory , Polic y and A pplic ations ” , Athe ns
Insti tu te f or E du c ati on a nd Re se arc h – C onf e re nc e Spe ak e r ( Ar e Kant ’s Cat eg or i cal I mper at i ve
PH O NE : +3 5 1 9 1 2 2 0 6 8 8 7 ● E -M A IL : PE DR O .BR INCA @ E U I.E U ● WWW .PE DR O BR INCA .PT
R O BE R T SC H UM A N C E NTR E FO R A DVA NC E D STU DIE S , E U R O PEA N U NIVE R SITY INSTITU TE
and I nst r ument al Rat i onali t y Compat i ble? T h e case for t h e Pr i soner ’s D i lemma ) , At he ns, Au gu st 2 1 s t to
23rd.
MEDIA INTERVENTIONS AND PUBLICATIONS
2005
“The I mportanc e of a Pac t ” (wi th Ru be n Branc o), i n J or nal de Not í ci as, 7 t h of Fe bru ary .
2005
Gu e st Spe ak e r, i n “ Cons ume ris m and Solidarity ” tal k show, i n Radi o UC, 1 6 t h of Dec e mbe r .
PH O NE : +3 5 1 9 1 2 2 0 6 8 8 7 ● E -M A IL : PE DR O .BR INCA @ E U I.E U ● WWW .PE DR O BR INCA .PT
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