New Export Activities in Brazil: Comparative Advantage, Policy or Self-Discovery?
Regis Bonelli and Armando Castelar Pinheiro
Research Proposal for the Project
THE EMERGENCE OF NEW SUCCESSFUL EXPORT ACTIVITIES
IN LATIN AMERICA
SPONSORED BY IADB’s LATIN AMERICAN RESEARCH NETWORK
March, 2006
FUNCEX — Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
New Export Activities in Brazil: Comparative Advantage, Policy or Self-Discovery?
Regis Bonelli and Armando Castelar Pinheiro
1.
INTRODUCTION
2.
RECENT EXPORT PERFORMANCE
3.
OBJECTIVES AND HYPOTHESES
4.
RESEARCH STRATEGY AND DATA SOURCES
5.
PRELIMINARY SECTOR SELECTION
6.
THE CASE OF AIRPLANES
7.
RESEARCH TEAM
8.
DISSEMINATION ACTIVITIES
REFERENCES
ANNEXES
1. Budget
2. Registration Form
3. FUNCEX — Institution, Fields of Activity and Recent Projects
4. CV — Regis Bonelli
5. CV — Armando Castelar Pinheiro
1. INTRODUCTION
Brazil has traditionally been more export oriented and has a more diversified export
basket than most other Latin American countries, partly as a result of being a larger economy,
but also on account of economic policy. The concern with export growth was a major feature
of the policy regime introduced in the late sixties that led Brazil to be then ranked together
with the Asian Tigers as an export-oriented economy. 1 The adoption of a competitive
exchange rate and a set of export incentives helped to fuel an export boom, marked by doubledigit growth rates in foreign sales, notably of manufactures, which lasted until the early eighties
(Figure 1).
In the following years, export growth was both lower and more erratic, to some extent
due to the reintroduction of high trade barriers, the prevalence of an unstable macroeconomic
environment and the decline in public savings, which limited the government’s ability to
subsidize exports. This bias against exports lasted until the mid-1990s, when trade
liberalization, greater openness to FDI and, in particular, the adoption of a more competitive
exchange rate after 1999 gave another big push to exports. 2 Other structural reforms, notably
privatization, as well as targeted government interventions, also seem to have played an
important role. Airplane exports boomed after the privatization of EMBRAER, the same
happening with steel and cell phones a few years after the sale of the state-owned steel
companies and TELEBRAS, respectively, to private investors. Foreign sales of automobiles
rose after an increase in productivity, fostered by trade liberalization, and investment, in the
aftermath of a renewed inflow of FDI. Public policy was also important; for instance, in the
development of new seeds by EMBRAPA, a state-owned company, the establishment of the
special regime for the automobile sector, and the support given by BNDES for the domestic
production of telecom equipment.
Figure 1 shows that exports have resumed rapid and sustained growth since 2000,
returning to double-digit expansion rates in recent years. This more intense export orientation
of the Brazilian economy can be gauged by the fact that the expansion of exports of goods and
services accounted for almost 80 percent of GDP growth in the first half of this decade,
despite the economy having remained still relatively closed: trade flows of goods represented
18.4% of GDP in 2000, increasing to 24.2% in 2005 (in current prices).
Since at least the mid-nineties Brazil has had relatively diversified exports. Hummels
and Klenow (2005) estimated that in 1995 Brazil had one of the largest extensive margins
among Latin American countries, second only to Mexico, which enjoys a favored access to the
US market. 3 As discussed below, most of the diversification of exports took place in the
seventies and eighties, reflecting the rise in manufactures exports. Policies targeted at fostering
the expansion of domestic output capacity in specific sectors – such as paper and pulp,
Writing in the late seventies about how trade strategies had become less inward-oriented in LDCs, Anne
Krueger (1978, p. 270) remarked: “In other countries, most notably Brazil and South Korea, the bias has been
completely reversed, to a point where one might claim a bias towards the foreign market and against the home
market”.
2 The strong performance of the world economy since 2002 has been another important factor.
3 The extensive margin measures the extent to which the volume of exports reflects external sales of a wide
variety of goods, as opposed to the intensive margin, which measures the degree to which it depends on relatively
large sales of a few products.
1
1
nonferrous metals, petrochemicals, oil and capital goods – were also important. Of late,
anecdotal evidence suggests that diversification was more important within sectors than across
sectors, as in the seventies and eighties.
Figure 1: Growth rates of Brazilian exports (%, 3-year moving averages, current US$)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
-5
1960
0
Source: FUNCEX.
This proposal presents our research strategy and discusses the data sources for a study
about the drivers of export growth in Brazil, exploring, in particular, the factors that led to the
discovery of new export-oriented activities and their diffusion in the economy. We define as a
discovery an export activity that has gone from basically zero to becoming a “major” export, in
the process of which exports were an important force behind the expansion of domestic
output. The next section of this proposal gives a summary account of export performance in
recent decades, identifying, based on the observed record, new successful export activities,
setting the background that will inform the tentative selection of discovery cases to be
examined in the project. Section 3 deals with the objectives of the study and discusses a set of
hypotheses about discovery triggers. Section 4 presents the research strategy to be adopted,
indicating the steps to be taken for the identification of the activities to be studied in depth,
and discusses the data sources to be used in the project. Section 5 presents a tentative list of
potentially interesting cases, from which we plan to later on select three discovery cases to be
studied in depth. Section 6 gives a somewhat more detailed description of the case of airplanes.
Section 7 presents the research team and the host institution. Section 8 sets forth lines for the
dissemination of the research’s results and findings. The annexes contain the budget proposal,
the registration form, a brief description of the institution that hosts the proposal as well as
summaries of the researchers’ CVs.
2
2. RECENT EXPORT PERFORMANCE
Figure 2 gives a snapshot summary of Brazil’s export record in the past three decades.
It reveals three main factors:
•
•
•
One, that in this long view exports of the three broad categories of goods
covered in the graph – basic, semi-manufactured and manufactured goods -have expanded considerably;
Two, that manufacture exports have had the most remarkable performance,
going from being second to basic (non manufactures) exports to answering for
over half of total exports, therefore characterizing a major diversification of
Brazilian exports over this period;
Three, that in the post-1999 boom exports expanded substantially in all three
major groups.
Figure 2: Brazil — Exports, 1974-2005 (US$ million)
120000
Brazil: Exports FOB (US$ million), 1974-2005
100000
80000
Total
Non industrilized
Semi manufactures
Manufactures
60000
40000
20000
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
0
Source: FUNCEX
Obviously, the extent to which the expansion in exports coincided with, and was likely
made possible by, its diversification tends to become more discernible as we work with finer
product classifications. A step in that direction is taken in Table 1, which gives the value of
exports for 31 different sectors in 1975-2005. In 1975, a few commodity-producing sectors
concentrated a large share of total exports, more than 50% of which in only four sectors:
agriculture and livestock (14.9%), mineral extraction (iron and other ores) (12.1%), sugar
(13.2%) and processed coffee (11.5%). These were still large export sectors in 2005, but their
share in total exports had declined substantially by then; indeed, in 2005 the leading export
3
sector was “auto parts & other vehicles” (not to mention automobiles, which also recorded large
exports).
Table 1: Sector Export Values from 1975 to 2005 (in US$ million FOB)
Sectors
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Agriculture and Livestock
1,295
Mineral Extraction: Iron, etc.
1,050
Mineral Extraction: Oil and coal
93
Non-Metallic Minerals
40
Steel
163
Non-ferrous metals
38
Other metallurgical products
53
Machinery, equipment and tractors
188
Electrical equipment and products
133
Electronic equipment and products
155
Automobiles
222
Auto parts & other vehicles
215
Wood and furniture products
152
Pulp, paper and printing
76
Rubber products
21
Chemicals (basic)
52
Oil refining and petrochemicals
140
Chemicals, miscellaneous
87
Pharmaceuticals and Perfumes
17
Plastics
11
Textiles
416
Clothing
88
Footwear and leather products
235
Coffee
995
Vegetable products, industrialized
303
Animal production (abate)
166
Dairy products
0
Sugar
1,146
Vegetable oils
748
Other food products
129
Miscellaneous industries
77
Non classified
167
Total
8,670
1,102
1,801
17
154
776
128
274
935
353
425
787
913
408
543
115
250
598
152
76
61
769
106
534
2,931
938
557
8
1,372
2,216
338
274
220
20,132
1,529
1,899
1
154
2,064
544
302
762
347
562
911
1,345
330
562
230
336
2,505
197
88
158
830
134
1,131
2,836
1,501
860
7
399
2,078
339
452
246
25,639
1,387
2,860
0
241
3,403
1,510
476
1,155
802
642
950
2,314
467
1,233
284
584
1,667
341
107
37
1,016
134
1,482
1,419
2,265
648
1
534
2,121
393
563
379
31,414
1,336
3,068
55
481
4,131
2,296
770
2,370
1,425
716
1,177
3,189
1,397
2,732
578
848
1,812
703
291
110
1,197
160
2,090
2,528
2,463
1,367
4
1,920
3,214
618
832
630
46,506
2000
2005
2,801
6,516
3,751
9,151
159
4,165
616
1,053
3,526
8,794
2,275
3,376
755
1,585
2,179
6,524
1,486
2,832
2,241
3,684
2,770
6,859
6,637 10,657
1,947
4,044
2,572
3,462
660
1,087
1,042
2,704
2,490
6,281
761
1,294
427
850
132
229
1,049
1,904
115
179
2,419
3,500
1,784
2,929
2,124
3,346
1,982
8,082
13
130
1,199
3,924
2,073
4,286
942
1,439
1,085
1,264
1,074
2,179
55,086 118,308
Source: FUNCEX.
Behind the observed structural transformation lies the fact that some sectors displayed
much faster export growth than others. This aspect becomes clearer in Table 2, which shows
sector export growth in 1975-2005 and sub-periods within. Overall, exports increased by a
factor of 13.65 in the three decades shown above: 2.96 between 1975 and 1985, 1.81 from
4
1985 to 1995 and 2.54 between 1995 and 2005. 4 The ranks of fastest growing sector exports
changed substantially with time, with good performance concentrated on sub-periods, rather
than extending throughout the whole 1975-2005 period. Thus, considering the three decades
as a whole, exports of Dairy Products were the fastest growing sector (factor of 1,085) — but
in 2005 these exports accounted for only 0.11% of total exports. The second fastest growing
sector was Non-ferrous Metals. But the performance in the past decade was not as good as
during the two previous ones. The third sector was Steel — but, again, the performance during
1995-2005 was not impressive either. In both these cases the sector share of total exports
decreased between 1995 and 2005.
Overall, the Spearman rank correlation coefficient for sector growth rates was equal to
– 0.18 comparing the first two sub-periods, – 0.12 contrasting the last two, and – 0.01 when
correlating performance in 1975-85 with that in 1995-2005. This suggests that there has been a
continued process of export diversification throughout these three decades, which strengthens
the argument that in a large economy such as Brazil’s export expansion tends to rely more on
the extending the basket of exports — the extensive margin, in Hummels and Klenow’s (2005)
terminology — than on exporting more intensely in the same traditional sectors.
Sectors whose exports expanded more in 1975-2005 had in general lower export
volumes in 1975, causing a certain degree of convergence in the shares of each sector in total
exports. As a consequence, in 2005 no sector answered for more than 1/11 of total exports,
and only a few had shares above 5% (Table 3). Thus, in 2005, the ten leading sectors were
(exports shares in parenthesis): (i) Auto parts and other vehicles (9.0%); (ii) Mineral Extraction:
iron ores and other (7.7%); (iii) Steel (7.4%); (iv) Animal Production (abate meat, poultry and
pork) (6.8%); (v) Automobiles (5.8%); (vi) Machinery, equipment and tractors (5.5%); (vii)
Agriculture and Livestock (5.5%); (viii) Oil refining and Petrochemicals (5.3%); (ix) Vegetable
oils (3.6%); and (x) Mineral Extraction: Oil and Coal (3.5%).
A breakdown of exports in 1996-2005 by activity, comprising 199 activities, was also prepared for this proposal.
A joint analysis of activity-sector performance will be used to identify the activities to be chosen for the in-depth
analysis later on.
4
5
Table 2: Sector Export Growth Rates and Ratios, and Ranks in Selected Sub-periods, 1975-05
Average annual growth rates (%) Ratio between
Rank
2005 and 1975
Sectors
1985/75 1995/85 2005/95
2005/75 2005/95
values
Agriculture and Livestock
3.4
-2.7
37.3
5
27
6
Mineral Extraction: Iron ore, etc
12.6
10.1
24.4
9
25
10
Mineral Extraction: Oil and coal
-60.2
137.2
137.7
45
11
1
Non-Metallic Minerals
31.1
25.6
17.0
26
16
15
Steel
66.2
14.9
16.3
54
3
16
Non-ferrous metals
70.5
33.4
8.0
90
2
26
Other metallurgical
41.9
20.6
15.6
30
14
18
Machinery, equipment and tractors
32.3
25.5
22.4
35
12
13
Electrical
21.1
32.7
14.8
21
18
20
Electronic equipment and products
29.4
4.9
38.8
24
17
5
Automobiles
32.7
5.2
42.3
31
13
4
Auto parts & other vehicles
44.2
18.8
27.3
49
6
8
Wood and furniture products
16.8
33.4
23.6
27
15
12
Pulp, paper and printing
49.1
37.2
4.9
45
9
29
Rubber products
61.8
20.2
13.5
52
4
21
Chemicals (basic)
45.1
20.3
26.1
52
5
9
Oil refining and Petrochemicals
78.0
-6.4
28.3
45
10
7
Chemicals, miscellaneous
17.7
29.0
13.0
15
22
22
Pharmaceuticals and Perfumes
38.6
27.0
23.9
49
7
11
Plastics
71.0
-6.9
15.8
21
19
17
Textiles
14.9
7.6
9.7
5
28
24
Clothing
8.7
3.5
2.3
2
31
31
Footwear and leather products
37.0
13.1
10.8
15
21
23
Coffee
23.3
-2.3
3.0
3
30
30
Vegetable products, industrialized
37.7
10.4
6.3
11
24
27
Animal production (abate)
39.0
9.7
42.7
49
8
3
Dairy products
123.8
-9.4
99.3
1085
1
2
Sugar
-18.9
36.9
15.3
3
29
19
Vegetable oils
22.7
9.2
5.9
6
26
28
Other food products
21.3
12.7
18.4
11
23
14
Miscellaneous industries
42.5
13.0
8.7
16
20
25
Non classified
8.0
20.7
28.2
13
Total
24.2
12.6
20.5
14
Memo: Average change in exports
3.2
2.5
0.1
prices in US$ (%)
Source: Table 1.
6
Table 3: Sector composition of exports (%)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
Sectors
Agriculture and Livestock
Mineral Extraction: Iron ore, etc.
Mineral Extraction: Oil and coal
Non-Metallic Minerals
Steel
Non-ferrous metals
Other metallurgical
Machinery, equipment and tractors
Electrical
Electronic equipment and products
Automobiles
Auto parts & other vehicles
Wood and furniture products
Pulp, paper and printing
Rubber products
Chemicals (basic)
Oil refining and Petrochemicals
Chemicals, miscellaneous
Pharmaceuticals and Perfumes
Plastics
Textiles
Clothing
Footwear and leather products
Coffee
Vegetable products, industrialized
Animal production (abate)
Dairy products
Sugar
Vegetable oils
Other food products
Miscellaneous industries
Non classified
1975
14.9%
12.1%
1.1%
0.5%
1.9%
0.4%
0.6%
2.2%
1.5%
1.8%
2.6%
2.5%
1.8%
0.9%
0.2%
0.6%
1.6%
1.0%
0.2%
0.1%
4.8%
1.0%
2.7%
11.5%
3.5%
1.9%
0.0%
13.2%
8.6%
1.5%
0.9%
1.9%
1995
2.9%
6.6%
0.1%
1.0%
8.9%
4.9%
1.7%
5.1%
3.1%
1.5%
2.5%
6.9%
3.0%
5.9%
1.2%
1.8%
3.9%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
2.6%
0.3%
4.5%
5.4%
5.3%
2.9%
0.0%
4.1%
6.9%
1.3%
1.8%
1.4%
2005
5.5%
7.7%
3.5%
0.9%
7.4%
2.9%
1.3%
5.5%
2.4%
3.1%
5.8%
9.0%
3.4%
2.9%
0.9%
2.3%
5.3%
1.1%
0.7%
0.2%
1.6%
0.2%
3.0%
2.5%
2.8%
6.8%
0.1%
3.3%
3.6%
1.2%
1.1%
1.8%
Source: Table 1.
This sector diversification of exports can be assessed more objectively by looking at
how the Hirschman-Herfindahl index (HHI) for sector exports evolved during this period. As
shown in Figure 3, there was a substantial fall in the HHI throughout the 1975-95 period,
followed by a decade of a more limited fluctuation. The rise in the exports HHI in 2004-05
reveals, though, that the resurgence of “traditional” exports has also been an important factor
behind the recent export boom.
7
Figure 3: Hirschman-Herfindahl index (HHI) for sector exports: 1975-2005
0,085
Herf indahl index, 31 sectors 1975-2005
0,075
0,065
0,055
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
0,045
Source: Authors’ calculations
Based on decadal export growth, the analysis above identified two periods worth
exploring in the project: 1975-85 and 1995-2005. As shown in Table 2, in both periods
Brazilian exports expanded at average annual rates in excess of 20% in real terms, with several
sectors recording even more remarkable growth rates. The first period was clearly one of
substantial diversification, as suggested by Figure 3, while the second was marked by less
substantial changes in the cross-sector distribution of exports. Probing deeper into the more
recent statistics, for which we have a ten-year consistent desegregation of exports into 199
activities, we can check whether there were relevant within-sector changes in the composition
of exports in this latter period. The corresponding results for the HHI are shown in Figure 4.
An overall trend towards diversification is transparent from the figure, with few exceptions.
Figure 4: HHI at the activity level, 1996 to 2005
0,0215
Herfindahl Index, 199 activities, 1996-2005
0,0210
0,0205
0,0200
0,0195
0,0190
0,0185
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0,0180
Source: Authors’ calculations
We were also able to identify the major activities within each of the sectors that were
responsible for the overall performance. Section 5 presents a list of the main activities and the
sectors to which they belong based on this identification. A complete list of activities within
sectors and the respective exports growth rates during 1996-2005 will be part of the research
report.
8
3. OBJECTIVES AND HYPOTHESES
The main questions we will try to answer in this project are: (i) what were the main drivers
behind export discoveries -- comparative advantage, economic policy or self-discovery -- and (ii)
how did the diffusion process proceed after the initial entry in the export activity. The study will
seek to answer these questions by identifying and studying three cases of discovery in the 19752005 period. More specifically, for each case the project will look for answers to the questions
below, based on which the research questionnaires will be designed:
(i)
What is the activity’s history? Under what conditions did the export entry and
diffusion occurred?
(ii)
What were the main discovery triggers?
(iii)
What were the main characteristics of the entering firm(s) and the challenges it
(they) faced?
(iv)
How has entry dynamics evolved after discovery and how did it affect export
growth? What happened to the share of exports accounted by the original entering
firm(s) and its (their) followers?
(v)
What is the skill intensity of successful activities? What is the role of technology
transfer, learning and productivity change, and of academic institutions associated
with the activities?
(vi)
The role of FDI: how important has been resource and knowledge transfer from
abroad? What has been the importance of R&D?
(vii)
How have fiscal incentives and other government support measures been used in
each case? To what extent has the process been stimulated by public support or
incentives?
(viii)
How important were the discovery of new geographical markets (destination of
exports)?
(ix)
What have been the forward and backward processes of diffusion (suppliers of
parts and components, clients downstream), if any, and the channels and
magnitudes of spillovers? Has this process been affected by policy?
We expect to show that the following were relevant discovery triggers, the relative
importance of which may vary from case to case:
Structural reforms, especially trade liberalization and privatization
Prior to recent changes, economic policy in Brazil had for many decades been
characterized by low integration into the world economy, pervasive discretionary state
intervention, and the prevalence of planning and command over market competition. The old
model’s emphasis was on fostering investment, to occupy so-called “empty spaces” expanding
domestic production to substitute for imports, rather than on efficiency, favoring profits even
if at the expense of consumer welfare. This strategy relied on a high degree of centralization,
with the federal government concentrating policy authority and resources. One positive
outcome was the emergence of a very diversified economy (considering the country’s average
income levels), which helps to explain export diversification since the mid-1970s.
9
This setting changed with the political, economic and institutional reforms of the last
twenty years. In the 1990s, in particular, reformers opened the economy to foreign trade 5 and
to both direct and portfolio investment, sold off a number of large and traditional state-owned
enterprises 6 , discontinued price and output regulations, and gradually erected a new regulatory
framework. Although in some areas reforms greatly increased productivity, their overall growth
impact has not been significant, with only a small acceleration in GDP growth, itself entirely
due to higher productivity growth. 7 But the export record in the second half of the 1990s was
not brilliant due to the use of the exchange rate as a monetary anchor since the real Plan was
implemented (mid-1994).
The main impacts of the reforms adopted in the 1990s have been felt in the rise in
productivity growth — although there was considerable cross-sector variance in their impact
— and on export competitiveness. The link with privatization is also apparent: the four leading
sectors in terms of productivity growth in the 1990s were communications, steel, public
utilities and chemicals (petrochemicals), all of which characterized by substantial asset
privatization in the 1990s (Bonelli, 2002). At firm level, Pinheiro (1996) shows that
privatization in Brazil substantially improved the performance of the former SOEs, with
significant increases in real sales, sales per employee, net profit, stockholders’ equity,
investment, fixed assets and the ratio of investment to sales. Export-oriented privatized
companies — CVRD, EMBRAER and the steel companies — also tend to contrast with the
remaining former SOEs, with the possible exception of TELEBRÁS, in that both productivity
and output capacity rose substantially after privatization.
Government backed innovations
A number of activities which we can claim to have been export discoveries, such as
airplanes, soya and alcohol (ethanol), were marked by important government interventions, not
necessarily with the ultimate goal of reaching foreign markets. EMBRAER, Brazil’s leading
aircraft manufacturer started as a state-owned enterprise (SOE), received plenty of government
funds for research and development, initially as part of a defense strategy (the company was
subordinated to the Ministry of Aeronautics, which still holds a significant part of its capital
and a golden share). The production of soya and the international competitiveness of domestic
firms owe much to the development of locally adapted seeds by EMBRAPA, a SOE focused
on agricultural technology. The use of alcohol as automotive fuel was also stimulated by a
specific government program (PROALCOOL) which fostered the development of car engines
proper to its use.
Periods of weak currency and / or export subsidies.
As noted by Romer (1993, p. 2), “[I]f there are almost limitless numbers of conceivable
goods that can be introduced into any economy, there must also be some fixed cost associated
with the introduction of each new good. Otherwise, every valuable good would already be in
use everywhere”. For various reasons, the same is true of an export discovery. A firm
developing a new export activity has to overcome various difficulties and risks, such as learning
For accounts and analyses of trade liberalization in Brazil, see Kume et alii (2003 ) and Horta et alli (1991).
See, on Brazil’s privatization, Pinheiro and Giambiagi (2000).
7 For a recent analytical appraisal of Brazil’s reform process see Pinheiro, Bonelli and Schneider (2004), from
where we extracted parts of the present section.
5
6
10
about consumer preferences and legal norms in foreign markets, establishing distribution
channels and becoming known. Indeed, these difficulties are the source of externalities
(spillovers) that usually justify government support to new exporters. A firm that becomes an
exporter also has to incur fixed costs in learning about the domestic bureaucracy to export.
Thus, it is likely that first movers will have to be tempted by especially interesting
opportunities. An interesting question is whether episodes of an especially devalued exchange
rate provide these opportunities, encouraging firms to incur into these sunk costs, either
because they are myopic or because they are able to recover these costs in their initial
operations. Export subsidies, even if temporary, can play a similar role.
The undervalued exchange rate prevailing in the 1999-2003 period, and the
concomitant resurgence of rapid export growth in the present decade, is an example of how
this logic may be at work. Brazil had already experienced a surge of export growth in the early
1980s, when a devalued exchange rate was an explicit policy goal for nearly three years. The
adoption of a free float regime in the late 1990s allowed for substantial exchange rate
devaluation, as shown in the next figure. The performance of the real effective exchange rate
also indicates substantial devaluation in 1999 and 2001 (Table 4).
Figure 5: Monthly Nominal Exchange Rate (R$ / US$), January 1995 to February 2006
4
Monthly Nominal Exchange Rates R$/US$, January 1995 - February 2006
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
2006 01
2005 07
2005 01
2004 07
2004 01
2003 07
2003 01
2002 07
2002 01
2001 07
2001 01
2000 07
2000 01
1999 07
1999 01
1998 07
1998 01
1997 07
1997 01
1996 07
1996 01
1995 07
1995 01
0
Source: IPEADATA
11
Table 4: Real Effective Exchange Rates*, 1994-2005 (2002= 100)
1994
84,4
1995
79,9
1996
81,6
1997
77,7
1998
81,2
1999
104,8
2000
90,4
2001
101,7
2002
100,0
2003
90,4
2004
85,6
2005
71,1
* Based on basket of 13 exchange rates; deflated by the wholesale price index (total). Source: FUNCEX
Large FDI inflows
Another hypothesis we think worth testing is whether greater inflows of FDI may work as
a trigger to exports. Pinheiro and Moreira (2000) show that in Brazil foreign firms tend to export a
higher share of their output than do national firms: on the one hand, for they are larger companies,
and larger companies on average are more export-oriented (controlling for sector and other
observable characteristics), on the other, because they have a higher export-propensity than
otherwise equal companies owned by nationals. Figure 6 shows that FDI inflows picked up
considerably after the Real Plan. Anecdotal evidence indicates that some of the most dynamic
export sectors in the last ten years have captured a large share of this FDI inflow and that this has
been a main driving force behind the expansion in exports (see below).
Figure 6: FDI inflows as a percent of GDP – 1947-2004
6
5
4
3
2
1
2003
1999
1995
1991
1987
1983
1979
1975
1971
1967
1963
1959
1955
1951
1947
0
Sources: Central Bank and IBGE.
12
4. RESEARCH STRATEGY AND DATA SOURCES
The research will be conducted in two phases. In the first, a dataset based on the Brazilian
classification system of foreign trade (NCM2 — Nomenclatura Comum do Mercosul version 2)
will be constructed and used to identify the products / activities to be analyzed. In the second
phase we will conduct an in-depth analysis of three products/activities, to be selected, based on:
interviews with representative agents such as: firm managers; representatives of business
associations and trading companies; market analysts; current and former government officers. The
analysis will also be based on existing statistical and other material pertaining to the
products/activities chosen, surveys and other research (e.g. academic dissertations) available on the
subjects concerned. More specifically, we plan to pursue a nine-step strategy:
i.
Detailed analysis of trade statistics: In addition to go from sectors into activities
and from those into product level, we will look directly for specific products with
exports that both expanded substantially and reached significant levels, implying
some degree of structural transformation.
ii.
Review of literature and secondary data sources, such as sector overviews,
internet sites and publications of companies and business associations, etc. This will
help to produce a preliminary characterization of each experience and inform the
process of cases to be studied in depth.
iii.
Selection of case studies: To select activities or products to be studied in detail,
we will take into account not only export performance but also industry and policy
characteristics such as presence of foreign investors, role of policy, whether natural
resource based and or capital intensive, timing of take off, trigger factors etc.
iv.
In depth review of existing studies and data sources: this will involve a more
detailed analysis of sector and company studies, interviews with experts in academia
and business, including market analysts, business associations, and government
officials.
v.
Identification of first mover and (possible) imitators: the main issue in this step
will be to draw the boundaries of the activity selected for in-depth analysis.
vi.
Interview firms: we will seek to interview the first mover and a few of its
followers.
vii.
Assess diffusion effects
viii.
Search for and examine comparator: we will check whether there were other
activities that shared similar preconditions but failed to experiment the same export
performance, or that also performed well, but lacked some of the initial conditions
present in the case-study activity.
ix.
Draw conclusions: we will analyze the collected evidence so as to (a) identify
the factors that triggered the expansion of exports in each case (e.g., structural
reforms, prolonged periods of a weak currency, government inducements,
13
technological breakthroughs, FDI entry, etc.); (b) look for commonalities among the
different experiences; and try to extract lessons and recommendations.
As suggested above, the project will rely on both secondary and primary sources,
namely:
Secondary sources: Data bases with detailed trade statistics; sector studies and reports;
internet sites for business associations and companies; company balance sheets; surveys on
sector leaders compiled by publications such as Exame, Conjuntura Econômica, Balanço
Annual and others.
Primary sources: Interviews with experts, business associations, government officials
and firms.
The final report should tentatively have the following structure:
A.
Introduction
B.
Export Performance and Trade Policy
i. Recent export trends: discuss how Brazilian exports evolved and the importance
of quantum, price and destination effects
ii. Intensive versus extensive margins: examine the extent to which aggregate and
sector export performance reflected increased volumes of traditional exports or
a process of continued export diversification
iii.The nature of trade policy: analyze how export promotion policies evolved in
recent decades
iv. New export sectors: identify the most dynamic export sectors and check for
commonalities in their stories
C.
D.
The Emergence of New Export Activities (for each case)
i.
General description
ii.
Analysis of first mover: launching and consolidation stages (trigger factors, role
of government, national / sector / firm idiosyncratic factors etc.)
iii.
Imitators and the process of vertical diffusion (facilitating factors, role of
government, national and sector idiosyncratic factors etc.)
iv.
Comparisons with similar cases
v.
Main findings
Overall conclusions
i.
Lessons: What were the common factors related to the different cases studied?
How central has been the role of government?
ii.
Policy recommendations: How replicable are these experiences, domestically
and internationally? What are the main factors to be stressed?
iii.
Research agenda: What are the implications of the study for future research in
this area?
14
5. PRELIMINARY SECTOR SELECTION
On a preliminary assessment, the products / activities deemed the most interesting
from which to select our case studies are poultry, cell phones, airplanes, alcohol (ethanol), pulp
and paper, tractors (standardized machinery), passenger cars, and soya. In Table 5 we present
selected features of their export performance and briefly discuss what makes them interesting
cases. In Table 6 we highlight what may have been the discovery triggers in each case and note
the advantages and disadvantages of each as a case for future in-depth analysis.
15
Table 5: A preliminary list of selected activities and export features of the sector to which they belong
Activity
Poultry
Cell phones
Export Growth: Activities Activity as % of
overall exports
Average
and value in
Period
growth rate
2005 (US$ bi)
(% p.a.)
Main sector export features
What makes the activity an interesting case?
16.5%
1996-2005
2.8% (3.3)
Animal production continuously
increased from 1,9% of exports
(1975) to 6.8% (2005)
High degree of product specialization, diffusion effects on net of suppliers,
own distribution channels in foreign markets (sunk costs)
28-fold
1997-2005
(Non
existent
before 1997)
2.0% (2.4)
Electronic equipment products
grew continuously from 1.8% to
3.1% of total exports (1975-2005)
FDI (Nokia, Siemens, Samsung) presence taking advantage of a long
established Export Free Zone (ZFM), with few success cases before
privatization of telecoms
Airplanes
27.4%
1996-2005
2.7% (3.2)
Auto parts and other transport
One single SOE (EMBRAER), started in the 1970s to assemble airplanes;
equipment exports of 10.7 billion
favorable export loans from Brazil’s National Development Bank before and
include other success cases (auto
after privatization (1994); success story as highly competitive in the range of
parts), having grown from 2.5% to
aircraft equipment it produces; depends on locally developed technologies
9.0% of total exports (1975-2005)
Alcohol
(Ethanol)
26.0%
1996-2005
0.6% (0.7)
Chemical Elements represented
0.6% of total exports (1075) and
2.3% in 2005
Many producers; technological advances in sugar cane production made
possible by R&D investment by state agricultural research company
(EMBRAPA); spill over effects on producers of equipment
Pulp and paper
8.2%
1996-2005
1.7% (2.0)
Exports of Pulp, paper and
printing 2.9% (down from 5.9%in
1995); still 3.5bi
Technological advances in bleached hardwood eucalyptus pulp production
(fibra curta) gave Brazil an unique comparative advantage; environmentally
sustainable; existence of first mover and imitators
FDI, long established; role of easily available finance to purchase through
Brazil’s National Development Bank (BNDES); idem, export finance
Tractors
(standardized
machinery)
24.8%
1996-2005
1.0% (1.2)
Machinery, equipment and
tractors exports went from 2.1%
(1975) to 5.5 % (2005) of total
exports
Passenger Cars
24.3%
1996-2005
3.7% (4.4)
Automobiles exports (incl. Buses) FDI, with high degree of national content; network of important auto parts
grew from 2.6% (1975) to 5.8%
manufacturers; importance of trade liberalization to foster technological
(2005)
advances
Soya
20.2%
1996-2005
4.5% (5.3)
Agriculture and livestock
traditionally large exporter: 14.9%
(1975), structural change since mid
1970s, 5.5% (2005)
R&D made available from state-owned EMBRAPA’s research increased
yields and produced new varieties to adjust to vast and otherwise little
productive cerrado’s land
16
Table 6: A checklist for sector/activity relevance
Reforms as potential
trigger
Relevance of FDI
Role of Government
Importance of
Technology
Advantages /
Disadvantages
No, acquired
endogenous
comparative advantage
No
Low, if any
Unknown
Leading firms identifiable
/ many producers
Cell phones
Yes (privatization)
High
Medium to low
Medium?
/ difficult to identify first
mover (concomitant)
Airplanes
Yes (privatization)
No (but yes on
technology contracts;
parts and components)
Initially high, currently
medium (high in
finance)
High
One firm / likely secrecy
on disclosing strategy
Alcohol
No (traditional)
No
Medium to low
Medium
/ many producers,
geographically dispersed
No
Medium
Medium to low
Medium
First mover and imitators
(followers) / hás ceased to
grow as before
Trade liberalization
High
Medium to high
(Finame/BNDES)
Low
Long established /
difficulty to obtain good
information from
interviews
Cars
Trade policy
High
Low
Low
Relevance of intra-firm
trade / difficulty to
interview firms
Soya
No
Medium (in the
processing stage)
Poultry
Pulp and paper
Tractors (standardized
machinery)
Medium, high in the past
/ Difficulty to identify first
Medium (Embrapa)
(Embrapa)
movers, many producers
17
6. THE CASE OF AIRPLANES
Exports of airplanes, parts and components picked up in earnest since the mid-1990s,
having grown 27.4% yearly on average between 1996 and 2005. The FOB value of exports
increased almost ten-fold and continuously from US$ 0.36 billion in 1996 to US$ 3.43 billion
in 2000. After a fall in 2001-2002 — associated with the industry’s behavior following the
events of September, 11 — they resumed growth to reach US$ 3.27 billion in 2004 and US$
3.17 billion in 2005. EMBRAER and its subsidiaries are the main responsible for the record.
Formerly a mixed economy company controlled by the Federal Government and
subordinated to the Ministry of Aeronautics, EMBRAER was founded in 1969. After
privatization in late 1994 it became one of the largest aircraft manufacturers in the world. Its
headquarters and main industrial installations are located in São José dos Campos, in the state
of São Paulo.
In 1994, its last year as a SOE, it controlled the Indústria Aeronáutica Neiva, based in
Botucatu (in São Paulo), the Embraer Aircraft Corporation (EAC), based in Florida, the
Embraer Aviation Internationale (EAI), based in France, and the Órbita Sistemas Aerospaciais,
also based in São José dos Campos. The company is publicly traded on the New York and São
Paulo Stock Exchanges. The firm’s capital is only partly controlled by Brazilian interests:
investment conglomerate Cia. Bozano and pension funds PREVI and SISTEL, which control
60% of the voting shares. A leading group of European aerospace companies (Dassault
Aviation, EADS, Safran, and Thales) jointly owns another 20 percent.
Its broader productive strategy is based on focusing on specific market segments with
high growth potential in three areas: commercial, defense, and executive aviation. EMBRAER
was Brazil’s largest exporter from 1999 to 2001 and the second largest in 2002, 2003 and 2004.
It currently employs more than 16,500 people, 85.5% of which based in Brazil, and contributes
to the creation of more than 3,000 indirect jobs.
EMBRAER’s business consists in designing, assembling and selling airplanes and their
respective accessories, components and equipment. It also executes technical services related
to the production and maintenance of aeronautic materials. Its range of aircraft produced over
time includes a number of different planes (e.g., Bandeirante, Brasília, Tucano, Ipanema, AM-X,
EMB-145, ERJ-145). Through Neiva it produced light airplanes and its parts Its subsidiaries in
the United States and France act as commercial and logistic arms, giving technical assistance to
foreign clients in North America and Europe.
EMBRAER owes much of its success in designing and manufacturing airplanes to the
sequencing adopted in developing the Brazilian aeronautics industry. It had its origins linked to
the establishment of the Aerospace Technical Center (CTA – Centro Tecnológico
Aeroespacial) in 1946 and of the Technological Institute of Aeronautics (ITA – Instituto
Tecnológico de Aeronáutica) in 1950. In 1954 the Institute of Research and Development
(IPD – Instituto de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento), linked to CTA, was created with the
objective of developing studies for the production of airplanes in Brazil. These led to the
approval, in 1965, of project IPD-6504. This project focused on the development of a twin-
engine turbo-prop airplane that would eventually become the Bandeirante, a prototype of which
flew for the first time in 1968.
In the 1970s EMBRAER targeted the export market as a way to overcome scale
problems imposed by the limited size of the Brazilian market and in this way offset
development costs 8 . With the relatively good penetration of the Bandeirante in foreign markets,
EMBRAER concentrated on the development of a new generation of airplanes. In the military
training category, EMBRAER launched the Tucano (EMB-312), which incorporated some
technically sophisticated and creative solutions. The second airplane in this generation, directed
at the regional passenger aviation, was the Brasilia (EMB-120), a fast and pressurized airplane,
derived from the Bandeirante and with a capacity to transport 30 passengers.
In the 1980s EMBRAER climbed another technological step through the military
program AM-X, a two-seat, single-engine, subsonic attack jet for advanced and fighter lead-in
training, developed in a joint-venture with Italian aircraft manufacturers Aeritalia and
Aermacchi. The first units were delivered to the Brazilian Air Force in 1989. The effort of
EMBRAER and the Air Force Ministry in this program allowed for the opening up of about
twenty Brazilian companies and led to opportunities for cutting-edge technological absorption,
including the manufacturing of sophisticated equipment. This meant a significant step towards
capacitating the domestic airspace industry. In 1989 EMBRAER launched a new development
program, that of the EMB-145, directed at the regional aviation market, which would later on
become the first commercial jet of the company and the main responsible for the company’s
commercial success.
As early as 1996 EMBRAER was granted the ISO 9001. In 2003, the company was
indicated for certification under AS-9100, equivalent to ISO 9001, but covering extra
aerospace industry specific requirements. It is certified since 2002 by ISO 14001 and OHSAS
18001 and was the first aircraft manufacturer to achieve such a status.
EMBRAER invests directly towards the introduction and implementation of advanced
engineering and manufacturing technologies, as well as into products. The assimilation of these
new technologies produces benefits that clearly extend to its Brazilian suppliers, as well as
academic and research institutions.
7. RESEARCH TEAM
The research team consists of Drs. Regis Bonelli and Armando Castelar Pinheiro, both
of whom are experienced researchers and have dealt extensively with issues of development
and trade as well as other, interrelated areas.
Dr. Bonelli holds a BsC. degree in Engineering (Pontifical Catholic University of Rio
de Janeiro, 1965) and a Ph.D. degree in Economics (University of California at Berkeley, USA
— 1975). He held a Visiting Research Fellowship from the Centre for Brazilian Studies and
Senior Associate Membership from St Antony’s College, University of Oxford, England (2002)
and was a part time Professor at the Department of Economics, Catholic University of Rio de
8 In 1977 the first Brandeirante was sold in France and, in 1978, in the USA. In 1981 EMBRAER won its first large
international commercial dispute, selling to the French Ministry of Defense a batch of 41 Xingu airplanes.
19
Janeiro, Brazil. He has authored studies in the areas of Economic Growth, Productivity, Trade,
Poverty and Income Distribution. Presently he is a Research Associate at IPEA, Consultant to
FUNCEX and Partner at ECOSTRAT, all in Rio de Janeiro. He previously held the following
official positions: (a) Executive Director, BNDES — Brazilian National Bank for Economic
and Social Development (1994-95); (b) Research Director, IPEA — Institute of Applied
Economic Research, Brazilian Ministry of Planning and Budget (1988-89); and (c) Director
General, IBGE — Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (1985-87).
Dr. Pinheiro holds a Bsc in Engineering (Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica, 1977),
master degrees in Statistics (Instituto de Matemática Pura e Aplicada, 1981) and Business
Administration (COPPE-AD / UFRJ, 1983), and a Ph.D. degree in Economics (University of
California at Berkeley, USA — 1989). He has been a researcher in IPEA since 1982, except for
the period 1994-2002, when he was at BNDES as its chief economist. He is also a Professor at
the Institute of Economics of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (IE-UFRJ). He has
worked in the fields of trade, economic growth and productivity, economics and law, and
regulation.
Summary CVs of Drs. Bonelli and Castelar Pinheiro are annexed.
The supporting research center, FUNCEX — Fundação Centro de Estudos do
Comércio Exterior (Foreign Trade Studies Center Foundation) is a private institution based in
Rio de Janeiro whose main objectives are: to perform research in foreign trade; and to provide
information and support to companies operating in foreign markets, trade associations and
government agencies. The Foundation is a permanent, independent channel of communication
between the public and private sectors with a view to analyzing foreign trade policies and
fostering foreign trade. FUNCEX will provide the research team with research assistance in
data collection and in the preparation of the database for the project, as well as overall logistic
support.
8. DISSEMINATION ACTIVITIES
The proposal contemplates the following dissemination activities in Brazil:
1. Publication of the complete Research Report as part of IPEA’s Discussion Papers
Series (which involves its translation into Portuguese)
2. Publication of a paper containing the main findings in FUNCEX’s quarterly review
(RBCE, see Annex 3)
3. Seminars in Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Brasília.
The main targeted audience will be policy makers and other government officials;
academics; and industry representatives, such as members of the State Federations of
Industries (especially those of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro) and from the National
Confederation of Industries (CNI), Brasilia, DF.
20
REFERENCES
Bonelli, R. (2002) “Labor Productivity in Brazil During the 1990s”, Texto para Discussão n. 906,
IPEA — Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, September
(available at www.ipea.gov.br).
Horta, M. H., G.Piani and H. Kume (1991); “A política cambial e comercial”, in Ipea (ed.)
Perspectivas da economia brasileira - 1992. Rio de Janeiro: IPEA.
Hummels, D. and Klenow, P. (2005) “The Variety and Quality of a Nation’s Exports”. The
American Economic Review, v. 95, n. 3 (June)
Krueger, Anne O. (1978) “Alternative Trade Strategies and Employment in LDCs”. The
American Economic Review, Vol. 68, No. 2.
Kume, H., G. Piani and C. F. Bráz de Souza (2003); “A política brasileira de importação no
período 1987-98: descrição e avaliação”. in C. H. Corseuil and H. Kume, (eds.) A Abertura
Comercial Brasileira nos Anos 1990: Impactos sobre Emprego e Salário. Rio de Janeiro,
MTE/IPEA.
Pinheiro, A. C. (1996) “Impactos microeconômicos da privatização”, in Pesquisa e
Planejamento Econômico, 26, n. 3, IPEA: Rio de Janeiro.
Pinheiro, A. C.; Bonelli, R. and Shneider, B. R. (2004) “Pragmatic Policy in Brazil: The Political
Economy of Incomplete Market Reform”. Global Development Network Report. Also as
Texto para Discussão n. 1035, IPEA, Rio de Janeiro, August (available at www.ipea.gov.br).
Pinheiro, A. C. and Giambiagi, F (2000) “The macroeconomic background and institutional
framework of Brazilian privatization”, in Pinheiro and Fukasaku (eds.) Privatization in
Brazil: The Case of Public Utilities, BNDES-OECD.
Pinheiro, A. C. and Moreira M. M. (2000) “O Perfil dos Exportadores Brasileiros de
Manufaturados nos Anos 90: Quais as Implicações de Política?, in P. M. Veiga (org.) O Brasil e
os Desafios da Globalização, Relume-Dumará, 2000.
Romer, P. C. (1993), “New Goods, Old Theory, and the Welfare Costs of Trade Restrictions”,
NBER Working Paper 4452.
21
Annex 3
FUNCEX – FUNDAÇÃO CENTRO DE ESTUDOS DO COMÉRCIO EXTERIOR
(Foreign Trade Studies Center Foundation)
Address: Av. Rio Branco, 120/707 – Centro
Zip code: 20.040-001 Rio de Janeiro – RJ, BRAZIL
Telephones: (55 21) 2509-7000, 2509-2662, 2509-44523
Fax: (55 21) 2221-1656
The Institution
The Foreign Trade Studies Center Foundation (Fundação Centro de Estudos do
Comércio Exterior - FUNCEX) is a private institution whose main purpose is to improve
the performance of Brazil’s foreign trade. Since 1976 FUNCEX has been providing valuable
support and assistance both to companies operating in foreign markets and government
agencies. FUNCEX is a permanent, independent channel of communication between the
public and private sectors. In order to provide its clients with systematic support, FUNCEX
has specialized in performing economic research and training of human resources.
Fields of Activity
Its main activities include:
•
The design and preparation of exports and imports databases
•
Elaboration of sector studies focused on foreign trade performance and negotiations.
•
Technical support and management tools to businessmen and managers.
•
Publishing of periodical reports and bulletins of interest to trade performance.
•
Training of specialized technical personnel in matters related to foreign transactions.
Publications
BRAZILIAN FOREIGN TRADE REVIEW -- RBCE - REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE COMÉRCIO
EXTERIOR
Quarterly publication targeting businessmen, executives and the economic, entrepreneurial
and financial elite. It focuses mainly on the following topics: policies for improving Brazil’s
position in the global market; monitoring integration agreements; dissemination of
FUNCEX studies and surveys; dissemination of Brazil's trade statistics and of selected data
on the Mercosur and the international economy.
22
FUNCEX BULLETINS
Foreign Exchange Bulletin -- Boletim de Câmbio
Monthly publication, forwarded to sponsors and founders of FUNCEX, presents and
comments on the evolution of real effective exchange rates as well as profitability indexes of
exports. It is also released to the press.
Foreign Trade Bulletin -- Boletim de Comércio Exterior
Monthly publication, forwarded to sponsors and founders of FUNCEX, presents price and
quantity indexes for total exports, classes of products and use categories, as well as exports
figures for these same aggregates. It also publishes price and quantity indexes for total
imports, as well as by use category, in addition to values for imports of these same aggregates.
It is also released to the press.
FUNCEX Sector Bulletin -- Boletim Setorial FUNCEX
Quarterly publication, forwarded to the sponsors and founders of FUNCEX, contains
sector price and quantity indexes, sector cost indexes, sector FOB values and the sector
profitability indexes for 26 exporting sectors. It also publishes price and quantity indexes, as
well as FOB values for 29 importing sectors. It is also released to the press.
Selected projects (2000/2005)
TITLE
CLIENT
YEAR
♣
Catálogo dos Exportadores Brasileiros (Edição 2005) e
manutenção do site www.Brazil4export.com.
National Confederation of
Industries — CNI
2005
♣
CRESCE – Creating a Responsive Environment for SME
Competitiveness and Exports (em execução).
DAI – Development
Alternatives Inc.
2004/06
♣
Oportunidades comerciais dos países da Comunidade Andina de
Nações no mercado do Brasil (em execução)
SDC-Swiss Development
Cooperation Agency
2005/06
♣
Revisão estrutural do Mercado de câmbio
Federation of Industries of
the State of São Paulo —
FIESP
2005
♣
As relações comerciais entre Mercosul, Índia e SACU: os
acordos negociados e oportunidades para o Brasil
DPR/Ministry of Foreign
Relations MRE
2005
♣
As relações comerciais entre o Brasil e países selecionados da
Ásia-Pacífico
DPR/ Ministry of Foreign
Relations — MRE
2005
♣
Boletim sobre o Desempenho Exportador das Micro e Pequenas
Empresas Industriais Brasileiras.
SEBRAE Nacional
2004
♣
Global Research Network (GDN) Project on Understanding
Reform – Country case study on Brazil
GDN – Global
Development Network
2003/04
♣
Catálogo dos Exportadores Brasileiros (Edição 2004) e
manutenção do site www.Brazil4export.com.
National Confederation of
Industries — CNI
2004
♣
O acesso da China à OMC: implicações para os interesses
brasileiros.
National Confederation of
Industries — CNI
2005
23
♣
Programa de substituição competitiva de importações –
Identificação de produtos prioritários
DPR/ Ministry of Foreign
Relations — MRE
2005
♣
Subsídios (ao milho e derivados) e barreiras comerciais:
mecanismos e artifícios que anulam a vantagem comparativa do
Brasil nos mercados norte-americano e europeu em açúcar,
etanol, manitol e sorbitol.
GETEC
2003
♣
Desempenho e potencial exportador das micro e pequenas
empresas do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.
SEBRAE/RJ
2003
♣
Relações econômicas bilaterais Brasil-Rússia: perspectivas de
ampliação.
Federation of Industries of
the State of Rio de Janeiro
—FIRJAN
2003
♣
Catálogo dos Exportadores Brasileiros – Edição 2003
National Confederation of
Industries — CNI
2003
♣
Estudo Setorial sobre o setor de Química Fina para subsidiar as
negociações comerciais de acesso a mercados na OMC, na
ALCA e nas relações Mercosul – União Européia.
CNI/ABIFINA
2003
♣
Estudo Setorial sobre o setor de Serviços de Distribuição para
subsidiar as negociações comerciais de acesso a mercados na
OMC, na ALCA e nas relações Mercosul – União Européia.
National Confederation of
Commerce — CNC
2002
♣
Estudo Setorial sobre o setor de Eletroeletrônicos para subsidiar
as negociações comerciais de acesso a mercados na OMC, na
ALCA e as relações Mercosul – União Européia.
CNI/ELETROS
2002
National Development Bank
— BNDES
2002
SECEX/MDIC
2002
Institute of Applied
Economic Research —
IPEA
2001
♣ A Política Comercial Brasileira: Análise e Propostas de Reforma.
♣
♣
Drawback: avaliação
reformulação.
do
instrumento
e
sugestões
de
Cálculo de Índices de Comércio Exterior (por blocos e/ou países
de destino e de origem de mercadorias; por unidades da
federação de destino e de origem das mercadorias).
♣
Incentivos ao investimento, à produção e à exportação propostas
para o estabelecimento de disciplinas no Mercosul.
SDP/Ministry of Trade and
Development — MDIC
2001
♣
Elaboração de um sistema de Indicadores do Comércio Exterior
Brasileiro e análise de setores exportadores de interesse para o
BNDES.
National Development Bank
— BNDES
2000
♣
Uma estratégia de desenvolvimento das exportações para a
Bahia.
Federation of Industries of
the State of Bahia — FIEB
2000
24
Annex 4
CURRICULUM VITAE
REGIS BONELLI
([email protected] [email protected])
A. Academic Background
Undergraduate Studies: B. Sc. in Engineering, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro,
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (1965)
Graduate Studies: Ph. D. in Economics, University of California ⎯ Berkeley, U.S.A. (1975)
B. Professional Experience
Since May 1997: Partner, ECOSTRAT Consultores; Research Associate, IPEA — Instituto de
Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Institute of Applied Economic Research); Consultant,
FUNCEX — Fundação Centro de Estudos de Comércio Exterior. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
August 1966 to May 1985; February 1987 to December 1987; October 1992 to December
1993; December 1995 to March 1997: Senior Research Officer, IPEA — Institute of Applied
Economic Research, Ministry of Planning and Budget, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil (Retired May,
1997).
April 2002 – June 2002: Visiting Research Fellow, Centre for Brazilian Studies, and Senior
Associate Member, St Antony’s College, University of Oxford, England.
January 1994 ⎯ November 1995: Executive Director, BNDES — Banco Nacional de
Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (National Bank of Economic and Social Development).
January 1988 to May 1990: Research Director, IPEA — Institute of Applied Economic
Research, Brazilian Ministry of Planning and Budget. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
May 1985 to January 1987: Director General, IBGE — Brazilian Institute of Geography and
Statistics, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
March 1978 to June 1997: Professor, Department of Economics, Pontifical Catholic University
of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil (part time; full time from June 1990 to October
1992).
C. Selected Publications and Research Reports
(In chronological order; titles in Portuguese were freely translated)
Growth and Technological Change in the Brazilian Manufacturing Industries During
the Sixties, Ph D Dissertation, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA, 1975.
"The Brazilian Economy in the Seventies: Old and New Developments" in World
Development, Special Issue on Latin America, January-February, 1977 (co-author: Dr. Pedro
Malan).
"Industrialization, Economic Growth and Balance of Payments, 1970/1984", and
"Industrialization and Economic Growth: Current Policy, 1984 to 1986", both in Wirth, J. et
25
alii (eds.), State and Society in Brazil: Continuity and Change, Westview Press, Boulder,
Colorado, 1987 (co-author: Dr. Pedro S. Malan).
"Growth and Productivity in Brazilian Industries: Impacts of Trade Orientation", in Journal of
Development Economics, April, 1992.
"The Success of Growth Policies in Brazil" Chapter 3, in Towards a New Development
Strategy for Latin America, Simon Teitel (ed.), Inter American Development Bank —
IADB, Washington, DC, 1992 (co-author: Dr. Pedro S. Malan).
"Macroeconomic Instability and Trade Liberalization in Brazil: Lessons from the 1980s to the
1990s", in Macroeconomic Conditions and Trade Liberalization, ed. by A. Canitrot and S.
Junco, Inter American Development Bank (IADB) and Instituto Torcuato di Tella,
Washington DC, 1993 (co-authors: Drs. Winston Fritsch and Gustavo Barroso Franco).
Ensaios sobre Política Econômica e Industrialização no Brasil (A book of Essays on
Economic Policy and Industrialization in Brazil), CIET/SENAI/UNESCO, Rio de Janeiro,
RJ, January, 1996.
“As Políticas Industrial e de Comércio Exterior do Brasil: Rumos e Indefinições” (Trade and
Industrial Policies in Brazil: Trends and Lack of Focus) Texto para Discussão n. 527, IPEA,
November 1997, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (co-authors: Dr. P. da Motta Veiga and Dr. A. F. de Brito).
“Para onde vai a Estrutura Industrial Brasileira?” (Whither Brazilian Industrial Structure?)
Texto para Discussão n. 540, IPEA, January 1998, Rio de Janeiro. Published in Perspectivas da
Economia Brasileira ⎯ 1998 (Perspectives on the Brazilian Economy – 1998), IPEA, Rio de
Janeiro, RJ (co-author: Dr. Robson Gonçalves).
“Indicadores de Competição para a Indústria Brasileira” (Competition Indicators in the
Brazilian Manufacturing Industries) Revista Brasileira de Comércio Exterior, Number 58,
January – March 1999 (co-author: Dr. Armando Castelar Pinheiro).
“A Note on Foreign Direct Investment and Industrial Competitiveness in Brazil”, Oxford
Development Studies, vol. 27, n. 3, October, 1999. Oxford, England.
“Padrões de Desenvolvimento Industrial no Brasil: Passado e Futuro” (Patterns of Industrial
Development in Brazil: Past and Future) in O Futuro da Indústria no Brasil e no Mundo –
Os Desafios do Século XXI, Confederação Nacional da Indústria, Editora Campus, Rio de
Janeiro, 1999 (co-author: Dr. Robson Gonçalves).
“Brazil: the Challenge of Improving Export Performance”, in Carla Macario (ed.) Export
Growth in Latin America — Policies and Performance. Lynne Rienner Publishers,
Boulder and London, 2000.
“Desempenho Econômico e Dinâmica Industrial no Brasil” (Economic Performance and
Industrial Dynamics in Brazil), Revista Futuro da Indústria, MDIC, Brasília, D. F., 2001 (coauthor: Dr. Armando Castelar Pinheiro).
“Políticas de Competitividade Industrial no Brasil: 1995-2000” (Competitiveness Policies in
Brazil: 1995-2000). Research Report. Sponsored by the Economic Commission for Latin
America and the Caribbean, ECLAC/UN, Santiago, Chile, January 2001. Texto para Discussão n.
810, IPEA, Rio de Janeiro, July, 2001.
“Determinants of Educational Exclusion in Five States of Brazil”, Research Report, The
World Bank, in Pobreza, Exclusão e Risco Social em Cinco Estados Brasileiros, edited
26
by Dr. Maria Valéria Pena. The World Bank, Brasília, DF, April 2004 (co-author: Dr. Alinne
Veiga).
“Estudos Setoriais para Subsidiar as Negociações Comerciais de Acesso a Mercados:
Siderurgia” (Sector Study to Support Trade Negotiations: Steel), FUNCEX — Fundação
Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior, Rio de Janeiro, 2002.
“Productivity Change in Brazil in the 1990s” Working Paper, Centre for Brazilian Studies,
University of Oxford, July, 2002. Revised version: “Labor Productivity in Brazil during the
1990s”, Texto para Discussão n. 906. IPEA, Rio de Janeiro, RJ September 2002.
“Namibia — Review of the Economy”, Mission Report, IBRD, May, 2003 (co-author: Dr.
John Odada).
“Social Exclusion and Poverty Dynamics In Brazil”, Report to the World Bank (IBRD), Final
report — August, 2003 (co-authors: Drs. Gustavo Gonzaga and Alinne Veiga)
“Characteristics and Determinants of Youth Unemployment in Brazil” Research Report to the
World Bank, IBRD, April 2004 (co-authors: Dr. José Guilherme Reis and Alinne Veiga)
“Accounting for Brazil’s Long Term Growth”. Research
www.ecostrat.net/regis.html, 2004 (co-author: Dr. Edmar Bacha).
Report,
available
at
“Pragmatic Policy in Brazil: The Political Economy of Incomplete Market Reform”. Global
Development Network Report. Also as Texto para Discussão n. 1035, IPEA, Rio de Janeiro,
August, 2004 (co-authors: Drs. Armando C. Pinheiro and Ben Ross Schneider)
“The Productivity Performance of Brazil” Research Report, UNIDO — United Nations
Industrial Development Organization, Vienna, 2005 (processed).
“Economic
Growth
and
Productivity
Change
in
Brazil”,
available
in
www.ecostrat.net/regis.html Excerpts of a Research Report to the World Bank Investment
Country Assessment, Brazil, June, 2005.
“A Exclusão Social e a Dinâmica da Pobreza no Brasil” (Social Exclusion and the Dynamics of
Poverty in Brazil), in Exclusão Social e Mobilidade no Brasil, E. Gacitua-Marió and M.
Woolcock (orgs.), Banco Mundial – IPEA , Brasília, DF, June 2005 (co-authors: Dr. Gustavo
Gonzaga and Dr. Alinne Veiga).
“Financial Development, Growth and Equity in Brazil”, in Economic Growth with Equity:
Challenges for Latin America. Machinea, J. L. and Ffrench-Davis, R. eds.), ECLAC —
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Palgrave Macmillan:
forthcoming in 2006). Preliminary version published as Texto para Discussão IPEA, Number
1118, 2005 (co-author: Dr. Armando Castelar Pinheiro).
27
Annex 5
CURRICULUM VITAE
ARMANDO CASTELAR PINHEIRO
([email protected])
A. Education
Ph.D. in Economics, University of California, Berkeley, 1989
M.Sc. in Business Administration, COPPEAD, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
(UFRJ), 1983
M.Sc. in Applied Mathematics, Institute of Pure and Applied Mathematics (IMPA), 1981
B.Sc. in Electronics Engineering, Technological Institute of Aeronautics (ITA), 1977
B. Main Professional Activities
1979-82
Deputy-Coordinator, Economics Division, Committee for Studies and
Coordination of Aeronautic Infrastructure, Brazilian Civil Air Board
1982-90
Researcher, Institute of Applied Economic Research - IPEA
1990-
Associate Professor, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ),
Department of Economics
1990-1992
Project Manager for Studies on Productivity and Competitiveness, IPEA
1992-94
Sector Policy Coordinator, IPEA
1994-95
Advisor to the Board of Directors of Brazil’s National Economic and
Social Development Bank, BNDES
1995-2002
Chief-Economist, BNDES
1995-2002
National Director of UNDP Projects BRA 88/008 and BRA 95/016.
2003-
Senior Researcher, Institute of Applied Economic Research - IPEA
C. Other Professional Activities
Assistant Professor, Cândido Mendes University (1987-88) and the State University of Rio de
Janeiro (1990); Associate Professor, Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC/RJ) (1990-92);
and Visiting Professor, Center for Studies on State Reform, Graduate School of Economics,
Getúlio Vargas Foundation (EPGE/FGV) (1997-98).
Member of the Editorial Board of Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico (until 1994 and since
2004), Revista Brasileira de Qualidade e Produtividade (until 1995) and Revista do BNDES
(1995-2002); and Member of the Program Committee of the 1994 and 2002 Latin American
Meetings of the Econometric Society.
Senior fellow at the Institute of Economic, Social and Political Studies of São Paulo (Idesp)
(1996-2003); Member of the Economics Committee of the Brazilian Federation of Banks
(Febraban) (2001-04), the Consultation Council of the Brazilian Arbitrage Chamber, the
Instituto Tendências de Direito e Economia (since 2005) and the Superior Council of
Economics, Industry Federation of São Paulo (FIESP) (since 2005); and Columnist of the
Valor Econômico newspaper (since 2003).
28
D. Recent Publications
D.1 - Books
A Privatização no Brasil: O Caso dos Serviços de Utilidade Pública, co-editor,
OECD/BNDES, 2000.
Judiciário e Economia no Brasil, editor, Sumaré, 2000.
O Desafio das Exportações, co-editor, BNDES, 2002.
A Justiça e seu Impacte sobre as Empresas Portuguesas, Coimbra Editora (Portugal), 2003 (coauthored by Célia Cabral).
A Reforma do Judiciário: Problemas, Desafios e Perspectivas, Booklink Publicações, 2003
(editor).
Direito, Economia e Mercados, Elsevier, 2005 (co-authored by Jairo Saddi).
Rompendo o Marasmo: Retomada do Desenvolvimento no Brasil, Elsevier, 2006 (co-authored
by Fabio Giambiagi).
D.2 – Book Chapters and Articles in Journals
Impactos Microeconômicos da Privatização, Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico, Vol. 26, No. 3,
December 1996.
Investment and Brazil and South Africa Commerce, with Maurício M. Moreira, in S. P.
Guimarães (ed.), South Africa and Brazil: Risks and Opportunities in the Turmoil of
Globalization, 1996.
The Brazilian Economy in the Nineties: Retrospect and Policy Challenges, in S. Friedman and
R. de Villiers (eds.), Brazil and South Africa: Comparative Perspectives, 1996.
Lucratividade, Dividendos e Investimento das Empresas Estatais: Uma Contribuição para o
Debate sobre a Privatização no Brasil, with Fabio Giambiagi, Revista Brasileira de Economia, Vol.
51, No. 1, Jan/Mar 1997.
Privatização e Novos Investimentos, in R. Fontes (ed.), Estabilização e Crescimento, 1997,
Editora UFV, pp. 257-274.
La Reforma Regulatória en América Latina, in Políticas de Competencia y el Proceso de
Reformas Económicas en América Latina, Indecopi, Lima, Perú, 1998.
Indicadores de Competição para a Indústria Brasileira: Concentração e outros Aspectos da
Concorrência, with Regis Bonelli, Revista Brasileira de Comércio Exterior, No 58, Jan/Mar 1999.
Costos Ocultos de la Justicia: Conceptos Generales y estimativos para el Brasil, in A. Fuentes
(ed.), Reforma Judicial en América Latina: Una Tarea Inconclusa, Corporación Excelencia en la
Justicia, Bogotá, 1999.
O Desempenho Macroeconômico do Brasil nos Anos 90, with Fabio Giambiagi and Joana
Gostorzewicz, in F. Giambiagi and M. Moreira (org.), A Economia Brasileira nos Anos 90,
BNDES, 1999.
Privatização no Brasil: Por quê? Até Onde? Até Quando?, in F. Giambiagi and M. Moreira
(org.), A Economia Brasileira nos Anos 90, BNDES, 1999.
29
O Perfil dos Exportadores Brasileiros de Manufaturados nos Anos 90: Quais as Implicações de
Política?, with Maurício Moreira, in P. M. Veiga (org.), O Brasil e os Desafios da Globalização,
Relume-Dumará, 2000.
Desempenho Econômico e Dinâmica Industrial no Brasil, with Regis Bonelli, in O Futuro da
Indústria: Oportunidades e Desafios: a Reflexão da Universidade, MDIC/STI, IEL, 2001.
A Reforma do Judiciário: Uma Análise Econômica, in L. C. Bresser Pereira, J. Wilheim and L.
Sola (eds.), Sociedade e Estado em Transformação, UNESP, 2001.
Credit Markets in Brazil: The Role of the Judiciary and Other Institutions, with Célia Cabral, in
M. Pagano (ed.), Defusing Default: Incentives and Institutions, IDB/OCDE, 2001.
Como Vencer o Desafio das Exportações?, Revista Brasileira de Comércio Exterior, No 72,
Jul/Sept 2002.
The Economic Benefits of Malaria Prevention: A Contingent Valuation Study in Marracuene,
Mozambique, Journal of Health and Population in Developing Countries, with Dale
Whittington e Maureen Cropper, 2003.
Segmentation and the Use of Information in Brazilian Credit Markets, with Alkimar Moura, in
M. Miller (ed.), Credit Reporting Systems and the International Economy, MIT Press, 2003.
Perspectivas das Relações do Brasil com as Potências Regionais, in A. Rebelo, L. Fernandes
and C. H. Cardim (org.), Política Externa do Brasil para o Século XXI, Brasília, 2003.
A Relação entre o Desempenho das Instituições Jurídicas e o Crescimento Econômico, in A.
Wald, I. G. S. Martins e N. Prado (org.), O Direito Brasileiro e os Desafios da Economia
Globalizada, Ed. América Jurídica, 2003.
Direito e Economia num Mundo Globalizado: Cooperação ou Confronto?, in Rogério E. de
Andrade (coord.), Regulação Pública no Brasil, Edicamp, 2003. Reprinted in Luciano B Timm
(org.), Direito e Economia, IOB Thomson, 2005.
Modernização do Judiciário: mitos e falsas soluções, in João Paulo dos Reis Velloso (coord.),
Economia do Conhecimento, Crescimento e Inclusão Social, J. Olympio, Rio de Janeiro, 2004
Por que o Brasil Cresce Pouco?, in F. Giambiagi, J. G. Reis e A. Urani (orgs.), Reformas no
Brasil: Balanço e Agenda, Nova Fronteira, 2004.
Em Direção a uma Agenda de Reformas, in E. Bacha and L. C. de Oliveira Fo. (orgs.),
Mercado de Capitais e Crescimento Econômico: Lições Internacionais, Desafios Brasileiros,
ContraCapa Livraria, 2005 .
Magistrados, Judiciário e Economia no Brasil, in Décio Zylberstajn and Rachel Sztajn (orgs.),
Direito e Economia, Elsevier, 2005.
Reforma Regulatória na Infra-Estrutura Brasileira: Em que Pé Estamos?, in L. H. Salgado and
R. Serôa da Motta (eds.), Marcos Regulatórios no Brasil - O que foi feito e o que falta fazer,
IPEA, 2005.
“Financial Development, Growth and Equity in Brazil”, with Regis Bonelli, in J. L. Machinea
and R. Ffrench-Davis (ed.). Economic Growth with Equity: Challenges for Latin America.
Palgrave Macmillan: forthcoming in 2006.
30