Sustainable Economy
A publication from the Ministry of Finance > October 2009 > Number 5
The country comes out of
the crisis, attracts billions
in investments and goes back
to an accelerated cycle of
economic and social progress
Back to
GROWTH
contents
table of
Brazil | Sustainable Economy
October, 2009
editorial
The country is growing again and
opening up a new cycle of opportunities
Growth
A year after the financial turbulence
that froze the world Brazil is
overcoming its difficulties and
forecasting to a 5% growth for 2010
12
Development
18
Investments
24
Pre-salt
Germano Lüders
The Brazilian response to the
crisis has included measures
to expand credit with a firm
performance by public banks
Petroleum, infrastructure, agribusiness,
renewable energy and The World Cup:
Brazil provides a wide and diverse
range of opportunities
Wealth from the sea depths
will be employed in a fund
to finance education and
foster social development
Brazil – Sustainable Economy
A magazine from the Ministry of
Finance produced by the Agent for Social
Communication in a partnership with
the Special Projects area of EXAME
magazine –Abril S/A Publishing House.
18
Andre Luis
Cover: Marcelo Calenda
4
4
12
Mario Rodrigues
T
he 1.9% increase in GDP during the second
quarter of 2009 has confirmed that Brazilian
economy has managed to react against the impacts of the largest financial turbulence ever
since the New York Stock Exchange crash in
1929. A year after the Lehman Brothers crash Brazil is surprising skeptics by being one of the first countries to emerge
from the crisis and to pick the development cycle it had been
exhibiting for the last few years up again. Signs noticed during this third quarter indicate it should be possible to close
the year with positive results and to come back in 2010, to
the baseline Brazil was at before the crisis. This should mean
an annual growth of about 5%.
At the time most of the world was beginning to notice
the first slowdown indicators, Brazil was showing a vigorous
growth. This model – based on consistent macroeconomic
foundations – helped the country to be readier to face the
crisis than at any other time in its history. Brazil was then
prepared to pick up the pace in a much faster rhythm than
most other countries.
The financial crisis has put Brazilian economy to the test
and it passed it with flying colors. Inflation under control; solidity, expressed in US$ 220 billion in international reserves;
balanced public accounts; cleared foreign debt; and a regulated and stable financial system have allowed the country
to hold its own under the strain of the economic hurricane
that shook the world. It is quite a different scenario from the
ones we have faced during other international crises, which
swamped the country in extended recession periods.
Economic growth and breadth to face the crisis were possible thanks to the creation of a widespread consumer market.
This was an entirely novel phenomenon in a country that had
had to live with vast income distribution inequalities. During
the last five years over 24 million Brazilians have emerged
from poverty and 27 million others joined the upper-upper,
lower-upper and middle classes. These progresses reflect the
success of the government’s income distribution policy and
the increase in employment rates from 2003 to 2008.
The population’s average income has been high since 2004.
Inequality has also been dropping for six years now, as has just
been shown by the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD),
the most comprehensive survey on the Country’s social reality.
Even during the toughest stage of the crisis, the strength of the
In the English version the Real was converted at R$ 1,80 = US$ 1
Brazilian market was one of the factors that provided Brazilian
economy with the power to quickly overcome hardships.
With solid basis and a vigorous market the country has
shown its capacity to successfully advance a set of anti-crisis measures. On the one hand, it has adopted an expansionary monetary policy; on the other, it has developed a
proactive fiscal policy. Together they have fed money into the economy, stimulated consumption, maintained jobs
and pepped up businesses.
One of the monetary policy axis – together with the cut
in interest rate – was the release of $ 55.6 billion in bank
compulsory deposits authorized as soon as the international crisis worsened. Monetary expansion provided support to
small- and medium-sized banks, thus ensuring stability to the
financial system, contrary to what happened in several other countries. But this did not ensure the necessary amount
of credit lines. The intervention of public banks was paramount to that. Without them credit would have remained
scarce and interests been higher.
Another important instrument was fiscal unburdening,
such as the cut in IPI (Tax on Industrialized Products) for purchasing cars, trucks, buses, construction material, house appliances and capital goods. These measures – which amount
to a fiscal stimulus of $ 7.6 billion, 0.4% Brazil’s GDP – have
managed to keep consumption high and accelerated recovery.
About mid-year several industry segments had managed to
surpass their production volume from the pre-crisis period.
It is estimated that, as a whole, the anti-cycle policy should
help GDP grow between 2.5% and 3.5%. Without it, it is likely that, instead of the 1% growth expected for this year GDP
would have dropped 2%.
This reaction has placed Brazil on the threshold of a new
development cycle that shows the country is going back on
the tracks it had followed up to September 2008. The vast
wealth expected from the exploration of the pre-salt layer petroleum, the need for infrastructure works to support growth,
the potential of agribusiness and renewable energy and a vast
range of other businesses are opening up amazing opportunities for Brazil to consolidate an economic model that brings
growth and social development together.
Guido Mantega
Minister of Finance
BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY | 3
growth
Picking up
at an accelerated rhythm
Indicators have confirmed: the crisis is behind us and
Brazil is one of the first countries to react against the
worst recession the world has faced in eight decades
B
ullish Gross Domestic Product (GDP); raise in employment level;
growth in sales; new investments; record highs at the stock exchange.
During the last few weeks several upbeat news reports have confirmed what millions of Brazilians already felt in their everyday lives.
After the squeeze caused by the international financial crisis, the
country is growing again, and is now looking back at the hard times, thus proving its resilience. One of the latest to feel the brunt of the turbulence that followed the Lehman Brothers crash on September 2008 and shook the whole world,
Brazilian economy was one of the first to react to it.
Brazilian GDP is growing again
After the crisis forecasts for 2010 are getting to 5% (in %)
5.71
6.0
5.67
5.33
4.0
5.08
4.42
5.00
4.31
3.97
2.0
3.38
3.16
0
2.66
2.15
-2.0
1.31
1.15
1.00
-4.0
4 | BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY
*
10
20
*
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
0.25
19
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
Photo: Jorge Araujo
* Forecasts > Source: IPEADATA > Prepared by: MF/SPE
98
0.04
-6.0
Bullish sales confirm
business are picking up again
and encourage large retail
networks to invest in the
opening of new stores
BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY | 5
growth
Report from Economist
Intelligence Unit (EIU),
the research branch from
The Economist magazine
Bovespa: the year’s
largest value rise
Brazil’s stock exchange recorded
a high of nearly 100% from the
works moment of the crisis
10%
USA
(S&P)
Germany
12%
Japan
70%
Russia
Brazil
48%
41%
24%
7%
69%
63%
The Brazilian market has
shown the quickest reaction
Robson Fernandjes
“There are clear
evidences the
economy is
recovering from
the external
impact thanks
to the strength
of the domestic
financial system,
low inflation
and effective
anti-poverty
programs.”
30%
15%
Englande
Mexico
China
Argentina
India
Turkey
Source: Bloomberg > Prepared by: MF/STN
It is a wholly different scenario from the one
seen during other world crises, which swamped
Brazil in extended times of recession. When
that which would become the worst recession
in eight decades started Brazil was undergoing a
consistent cycle of development with solid economic bases, positive GDP increase rates for 27
quarters, international reserves amounting to $
205 billion, a stable financial system and a process of important social achievements.
In 2008, unemployment rate stood at 7.1%,
the lowest rate since 2001, average worker in-
come kept the raise it had evinced since 2005,
social inequality dropped – as shown by the
2008 National Household Sample Survey
(PNAD), the most comprehensive survey on the
Country’s actual living conditions. Due to that,
the effects of the crises were quicker to pass and
less acutely felt, as pointed out by a survey involving consumers from all over Latin America.
Only one year after the storm that froze the
whole world, Brazilian economy is growing again
and showing signs of a strong pick-up with no
drawbacks. The newest indicator for this trend is
Few Brazilians have felt the brunt of the global crisis
A Survey in Latin American countries showed that the effects of
the crisis were more intense in some regions than in others (in %)
the GDP performance for the second quarter – a
1.9% growth. Thanks to that result, GDP forecasts in 2009 went positive, and those for 2010
already include expansion in a pre-crisis rhythm.
The Country opened the second semester
with breadth. According to The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) industrial production in July grew 2.2%. It was the
seventh improvement in a row and an important
indicator that businesses are picking up and
idleness is dropping. 23 of the 27 seven sectors
subjected to an IBGE analysis showed a positive
performance, which points to a strong growth
not limited to any given activity. One of those
that stood out was the machinery and equipment industry with an 8.9% high, a clear sign of
companies’ trend toward investing in expanding
their production capacity. Production increase
in the stationery and computer equipment industry was even greater: 12.1%.
The survey also showed that in July several
industry segments have already surpassed their
production records for September 2008, which
confirmed growth was speeding up. This pro-
Income and total salaries grow during crisis
Variation accrued along 12 months (in %)
Don’t know
Little or nothing
A lot
8%
Average income *
100%
90%
8
3
7
10
11
5
33
21
7
34
30
15
6%
20
5%
53
63
60%
7%
16
30
41
3
18
80%
70%
5
54
4,3%
4.1%
4%
50%
40%
30%
52
61
67
20%
Latin
America
Argentina
Bolivia
Source: Latin Panel > Prepared by: Ministry of Finance
6 | BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY
59
60
Brazil
3%
79
Central
America
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
2.1%
2%
39
32
10%
0%
64
69
Mexico
Peru
32
Venezuela
1%
0%
Jun
07
Aug
07
Oct
07
Dec
07
Feb
08
Apr
08
Jun
08
Aug
08
Oct
08
Dec
08
Feb
09
Apr
09
Jun
09
* Based on main job income > Source: IBGE/PME > Prepared by: Ministry of Finance
BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY | 7
Growth in China
has given markets
a fresh stimulus
Creation of job positions
Ricardo Azoury
Stephen Thompson
growth
Jobs: the market is reacting
and the services sector is
one of those that stands out
GDP growth during the second quarter of 2009
Comparison with other countries * (in %)
15
Oct 08
Dec 08
Feb 09
Apr 09
Jun 09
Aug 09
Source: Ministry of Labor and Employment /CAGED > Prepared by: Ministry of Finance
8 | BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY
ina
a
Ko
Ch
re
az
il
ia
ut
h
Br
ia
Ind
ia
es
Ind
on
Ru
ss
a
ali
n
str
Au
Ja
pa
d
ay
lan
rw
Po
ce
No
y
an
an
Fr
ea
en
rm
Ge
ed
Ar
ro
Eu
Sw
d
A
lan
itz
er
US
ile
ly
* Variation against the former quarter (q/q-1) with seasonal adjustment– annualized rates > Source: GDW JP Morgan 11/09/2009 and IBGE for Brazil
International reserves
Total net foreign debt
International liquidity (in $ billion USD)
In GDP %
220,0
230
32.7
29.7
29.4
27.3
26.5
190
20.4
19.5
150
14.1
11.5
11.2 11.2
110
6.9
70
* Status as per August 2009 > Source: Brazilian Central Bank > Prepared by: Ministry of Finance
*
09
20
08
20
06
05
07
20
20
20
04
20
02
01
03
20
20
20
Sep
09*
00
March
09
99
Sep
08
20
March
08
98
Sep
07
19
March
07
19
Sep
06
97
-0.9 -1.8
-2.7
19
30
96
lower-upper and middle classes. “The internal
market was a true champion against the crisis,”
says Marcelo Néri, CPS’s head economist.
Family consumption should grow in the next
few months thanks to the drop in unemployment.
In August 242.1 thousand formal jobs were created in Brazil, the best monthly result since September last year. This reversal points to the end of the
adjustment process fostered by companies to face
the crisis. Brazil also has advantages on that count.
According to a survey carried out by Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) including 23 countries, its
labor market was the second least affected one.
Maintaining total salaries and the labor market are
top goals of Brazilian economic policy.
19
cess is largely helped along by family consumption, which persisted even during the crisis and
has been growing for 23 quarters in a row. During the second quarter it increased 3.2% against
the same period in the former year.
Supermarket sales keep growing. During the
first semesters increase in relation to the same
period in the former year was over 5%. Migration of upper-lower and lower-lower classes to
the middle class has strengthened the internal
market, as can be seen from a survey recently
carried out by Fundação Getulio Vargas’ Center
for Social Policies (CPS). During the last five
years about 27 million people – about half the
population of France – joined the upper-upper,
So
Aug 08
95
Jun 08
19
Apr 08
Sw
Feb 08
Un
Dec 07
ite
ut
Oct 07
So
Aug 07
Ch
o
xic
Me
-700
Ita
-10
-550
om
-400
ca
-5
gd
0
-250
fri
-100
7.8
Kin
5
d
10
50
da
200
hA
350
na
242.1
Ca
Number of people hired is larger than that of people fired. Absolute variation (in thousands of people)
* Estimate for July/09 > Source: Brazilian Central Bank > Prepared by: Ministry of Finance
BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY | 9
Jim O’Neill, from
Goldman Sachs,
creator of the term Brics
Another vital index of economic pickup is
the advertising of large investments. Petrobras
intends to invest resources amounting to $ 174.4
billion from 2009 to 2014. Vale, one of the largest
mining companies in the world, plans to invest
$ 17.3 billion in four steel industry megaprojects
that should create 80 thousand new jobs. A study
by the National Bank for Economic and Social
Development (BNDES) shows that almost half
of the $ 55.6 billion in investments frozen after
the crisis have already been retrieved.
According to forecasts from the Sociedade
Brasileira de Estudos de Empresas Transnacionais da Globalização Econômica (Brazilian
Society for Transnational Company Studies and
Economic Globalization – SOBEET), Foreign
Direct Investment (FDI) flow may come to a
total of $ 13.9 billion in 2009. It is a 40% lower
amount than last year’s, but it is enough to help
Brazil climb several marks in the raking of countries that got the most foreign resources, putting
it ahead of developed economies, the ones that
took the brunt of the crisis.
It is a growth that should keep up for the
next few years: a survey carried out by the United Nations Committee of Trade and Development (UNCTAD) including 240 multinational
companies showed that Brazil may become the
major destination for international direct in-
vestment resources until 2011. For experts like
Octavio de Barros, head of the Economy Department of Bradesco, the second largest Brazilian private bank, the country’s economy is now
being acknowledged as disciplined and predictable. “Brazil did better than expected,” said
Mauro Leos, chief analyst of Moody’s for Brazil,
and said the agency moved Brazil’s country-risk
rating to that of “investment grade”, as Standard
& Poor’s and Fitch have done.
Jim O’Neill, from Goldman Sachs, who coined
the term Brics to define the four main emerging
countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – has
also acknowledged the country was successful
in the way it faced the international crisis and is
entering the post-crisis time with greater vigor.
“Brazilian economy has great chances of growing at a 5% rhythm during the next few years and
becoming one of the strongest in the world,” he
commented. Brazil’s quick reaction to the global
financial crisis and its economic stability during
the period of strongest turbulence, as well as the
capacity for innovation of its private sector, had
already been proven by the World Economic Forum competitiveness index. The Country climbed
eight points in the general ranking, the greatest
leap since the list was first put together.
One of the indicators for the robustness gained
by the economy and the confidence that Brazil
During the first semester
Brazilian supermarkets
surpassed results for the
same period in 2008 in 5%
has overcome the crisis is the stock exchange.
In mid-September the Bovespa Index (Ibovespa) went over the 60-thousand-point mark
for the first time since June. Since the beginning of 2009 it increased almost 100% in dollar value. No other stock exchange has reached
that score. At BM&FBovespa the largest Initial
Public Offering (IPO) in the world this year
was carried out in June – that of Visanet credit
card manager – an operation that yielded about
$ 4.7 billion being polled.
With an eye to the business opportunities
the economic pickup is creating, an unprecedented number of foreign officers, heads of
multinational companies and businesspeople
in trade missions have landed in Brazil during
the last few months. Leaving the crisis before
most other countries and as strong as before,
Brazil has once and for all joined the business
scenario and became a strategic partner for
anyone wishing to grow and make their way in
the global economy.
Minimum wage evolution
Fiscal stimulus program
New middle class1
Annual average in the last decades (in $ BRL)
How much countries spen to fight the crisis (in GDP %)
As a proportion of the total population – annual
475
9
55
449.51
450
431.72
3
346.29
2
300
2005
Source: DIEESE > Prepared by: Ministry of Finance > R$ 1,80 = US$ 1
10 | BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY
1.2
0
312.13
2004
44.4
45
42.4
1
323.75
2003
50.3
46.1
4
350
52.9
48.2
5
375
325
50
6
394.96
400
52.3
Middle class 2
7
418.83
425
8
2006
2007
2008
2009
40
Ita
Tu ly
rk
ey
Ind
ia
Br
a
Fr zil
Un Ar ance
ite gen
d
Kin tina
g
Ind dom
on
es
Me ia
x
Ca ico
n
Ge ada
rm
an
y
US
Ja A
A pa
So ustr n
ut ali
hA a
fri
c
Ru a
ss
i
Sa C a
ud hin
iA a
ra
bi
Ko a
re
a
“Brazilian
economy has
great chances
of growing at a
5% rhythm
during the next
few years and
becoming one
of the strongest
in the world”
Fernando Moraes
growth
* Discretionary measures related to the crisis and having fiscal effects in 2009 and 2010.
Source: IMF > Prepared by: Ministry of Finance
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009 3
1. Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Porto Alegre metropolitan areas.
2. Economic class with per capita household income from usual jobs between $ 1,115 BRL
and $ 4,807 BRL at prices from Dec/08 per month.
3. Until July > Source: FGV/CPS based on microdata from PME/IBGE > Prepared by: Ministry of Finance
BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY | 11
development
Action,
Thanks to incentives
civil construction
started growing and
generating jobs again
speed and daring
The set of anti-cycle measures employed by the government
at the first signs of economic slowdown has poured money
into the economy and sped up business pickup
Q
uick, daring and efficient measures to decrease the impacts of the hurricane that has battered most of the world about have helped Brazil to
overcome the international crisis test. Thanks to its anti-cycle efforts
the Country has managed to turn over a new leaf by making the crisis
into an opportunity to prove the solidity of its macroeconomic policy, the
strength of its internal market and the dynamism of its businesses.
One of the pivots for this reaction was the effort of public banks in fighting liquidity squeeze and economic recession. Besides decreasing interest rates at the first
signs of the crisis, the government also authorized the release of $ 55.6 billion from
the compulsory loan – that part of time deposits banks are forbidden to transfer – in
order to foster consumption and businesses.
Domestic credit
Licensing of automobiles*
Variation accrued since September 2008 (in %)
35
30
25
20
In thousands of units
300.1
+32.9
Public banks
288.2
+25.2
Large private banks
Small and medium private banks
+10.0
10
256.0
+10.1
+9.8 +9.1
232.2
242.0
5
234.4
-4.5
-3.3
-1.5
-0.3
199.4
194.5
177.8
-5
Photo: Cristiano Mariz
247.0
239.3
244.8
197.4
0
285.4
+19.5
+15.9
15
271.5
268.7
261.2
-10
Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09
Credit Operation Balance Index (Sep/2008 = 100) > Source: Brazilian Central bank > Prepared by: Ministry of Finance
12 | BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY
Mar 08
May 08
Jul 08
Sep 08
Nov 08
Jan 09
Mar 09
May 09
Jul 09
* Includes cars and light commercial automobiles, trucks and buses > Source: Anfavea
BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY | 13
“The Country
having emerged
the crisis with such
flying colors had to
be confidenceinspiring”
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard
University, former head
economist of the International
Monetary Fund (IMF)
Since most these resources were directed
to financial investments (commissioned operations), the role of supporting credit fell to public banks, lead by Banco do Brasil and Caixa.
Public bank credit operation balance grew over
25%, way above that of commercial banks, and
its share in total credit amounted to almost
40%. According to an Agência Brasil survey,
since the crisis increased in September 2008
the creation and buffering of official credit
lines have added to $ 153.9 billion.
BNDES, the main agent for long-term investment funding, has been given an additional $ 55.6 billion support – 3.3% Brazil’s GDP
– in order to buffer its capital and make programs such as the one intended to machinery
and equipment purchase feasible. Thanks to
that, its disbursements in 2009 may get to
$ 93.3 billion, a historical record. The government has also made resources available to the
naval industry and increased funding to exports and credits to agriculture, all industries
that require loans to pay for their activities.
Funding for the 2009/2010 crops amounted to
a total of $ 59.4 billion.
Another tool of the government’s anti-cycle
policy was the expansion of the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC), endeavors such
Germano Lüders
development
Car manufacturers
achieved record sales
during the first semester
Interest rates minus inflation expectations
More resources to agriculture
Cuts in the interest rate helped neutralizing the effects of the crisis
Safra Plan (in $ billion BRL)
as the housing program Minha Casa, Minha
Vida, with $ 33.3 billion in resources to build
1 million houses, the maintenance and widening of social programs and a fiscal space that
will allow states and counties to carry out
$ 19.1 million in investments in infrastructure
and sanitation works.
The government has also created a fiscal
unburdening policy in order to foster consumption of goods such as automobiles, house appliances and building material. Fiscal unburdening should add up to about $ 7.6 billion until
the end of the year – 0.4% the GDP – with
an extremely positive balance. These efforts
have increased sales, helped maintain jobs
and warmed up economy. In the case of automobiles, for instance, a cutting in the Tax
on Industrialized Products (IPI) made by the
government in January 2009 allowed prices to
fall between 5% and 7%, thus reversing a trend
toward a drop in sales.
During the first semester, while car manufacturers abroad suffered heavy losses, Brazil
produced 1.4 million units, as stated in the
monthly follow-up by the Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers (ANFAVEA).
Despite an intensive drop in exports this figure
was 3% above the one recorded for the first six
Family Agriculture
16
2008/09
78.0
Business Agriculture
80
% a year
15.0
13.0
14
12.0
60
12
9.0
10
historical
minimum
8
4.9
6
40
Jan 03
Jan 04
Source: Ministry of Finance > Prepared by: MF/SPE
Jan 05
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
5.4
20
21.7
27.2
Crop
02/03
Crop
03/04
10.0
92.5
7.0
2.4
0
4
14 | BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY
Ilan Goldfajn, Itaú
Unibanco’s head economist
2009/10
107.5
100
18
“Brazil scored
high and now
everyone is
looking here and
saying, ‘man, this
guy is good’”
38.5
Crop
04/05
44.5
Crop
05/06
50.0
Crop
06/07
58.2
Crop
07/08
65.0
Crop
08/09
Crop
09/10
Source: Ministry of Finance > Prepared by: MF/SPE > R$ 1,80 = US$ 1
BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY | 15
development
“The country
did better than
expected. And one
of the factors that
helped changing its
rating was market
assessment”
Since September 2008
official credit lines have
added to $ 153.9 billion
months of 2008. According to ANFAVEA’s calculations, without the tax cut at least 300 thousand vehicles would find no buyers and be left
cluttering up the manufacturer’s yards. This
figure is about 10% what the industry intended
to sell in 2009, which should ensure three years
in a row of record sales. The tax cut has also
contributed to maintain from 50 to 60 thousand jobs, according to a study carried out by
the Institute of Research in Applied Economics
(IPEA), and also to create new jobs positions.
The decrease in taxes on house appliances
of the so-called “white goods” – refrigerators,
stoves and washing machines – has had the
same effect. The tax cut came in April and lowered prices and raised sales in up to 20%, according to estimates by the largest chain stores,
some of whose shelves were even left empty.
Many manufacturers had to hire new employees to meet the demand and most of them went
back to their pre-crisis period activity level, according to an appraisal by the Electro-Electronic Product Manufacturers National Association
(Eletros). Sales in the construction material
Lia Lubambo
Delfim Netto, former
Minister of Finance
Marcelo Kura
Mauro Leos, chief analyst
of Moody’s for Brazil
“Let’s not buy this
nonsense about
public banks
harming the
private system”
Public banks had
a major role in
the credit offer
industry reacted to the cut in IPI at once. In
August the high got to nearly 5% against the
same period in 2008, as shown by the Anamaco (National Association of Construction
Material Sellers) survey.
All in all it is estimated that direct and indirect effects of the government’s anti-crisis measures should help GDP grow between 2.5% to
3%. Without them there probably would have
been a 2% drop, instead of the expected 1% increase. Besides moving the economy forward,
this set of measures has helped create another
Fiscal result
Public sector net debt
Consolidated nominal balance for the public sector, Petrobras excluded (in GDP %)
Petrobras excluded (in GDP %)
Market Scenario
positive scenario. In July, after a nine-month
recession, employments in the industry sector
showed a high. It’s another sign that Brazilian
economy is putting the pedal to the metal and
moving forward with a cycle that brings economic growth, social development and fiscal
responsibility together. According to estimates
from International Monetary Fund (IMF), the
fiscal cost of Brazil’s anti-cycle efforts was the
lowest among the G-20 countries. It amounted
to 1.9% of GDP, far from the United States’
13.6% and India’s 10.2%.
Ministry of Finance Scenario
Market Scenario
0.5%
51,3
0.0%
0.09%
-0.20%
-0.5%
-0.53%
-1.0%
-0.39%
-0.24%
-0.08%
50
48,2
48,0
45,9
-0.71%
43,9
45
42,5
42,9
-1.5%
36,5 36,5
-1.98%
-2.5%
-2.32%
-3.0%
35
-2.45%
33,4 33,5
-2.75%
30,1 30,4
30
-3.38%
-4.0%
2005
-3.54%
2006
25
2007
2008
2009*
Market and MF parameters consider 2.5% and 3.3% primary for other years > Source: Ministry of Finance
16 | BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY
39,5 39,8
38,8
40
-2.0%
-3.5%
Ministry of Finance Scenario
53,5
55
0.30%
2010*
2011*
2012*
2013*
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009*
2010*
2011*
2012*
2013*
* Brazilian Central Bank simulation considering a primary surplus of 2.5% GDP in 2009 and 3.3% GDP from 2010 to 2012 > Source: Brazilian Central Bank > Prepared by: Ministry of Finance
BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY | 17
investimentos
Um mar de
oportunidades
O pré-sal e uma gama de negócios mantêm um
ciclo que associa crescimento e avanços sociais
C
om o início da fase de testes no campo de Tupi, na
Bacia de Santos, em maio, o Brasil abriu a mais
nova fronteira da indústria mundial de petróleo. A
produção de óleo e gás no pré-sal, em águas ultraprofundas, numa faixa que se estende por mais de
800 quilômetros do litoral, só deve começar a partir de 2010,
mas está criando uma demanda por bens e serviços sem similar
no mundo, com investimentos que já impulsionam a economia,
fortalecendo outros negócios, geram mais empregos e contribuem para que a renda média dos brasileiros mantenha a tendência de alta registrada nos últimos anos.
Investimentos do governo federal e da Petrobras
Em % do PIB
3,5
Petrobras
PAC
3,0
Governo federal
2,0
2,5
2,0
1,3
1,5
1,0
0,8
0,8
0,8
0,5
0
0,3
0,5
0,5
2003
2004
2005
0,8
0,9
0,6
0,7
0,9
2006
2007
2008
1,2
2009*
1,5
2010*
Foto: Divulgação
Petrobras: maior
projeto de expansão da
indústria do petróleo
1,7
* Projeções > Fontes: MF/STN & MP/DEST > Elaboração: MF/SPE
18 | BRASIL
BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE
ECONOMIA SUSTENTÁVEL
ECONOMY
BRASIL
BRAZILECONOMIA
SUSTAINABLE
SUSTENTÁVEL
ECONOMY | 19
investimentos
Financial Times
Rodrigo Lobo
A riqueza extraída a até 7 mil metros do fundo do mar dá ao País lugar de destaque entre
os grandes produtores mundiais. Só no campo
de Tupi, de acordo com as primeiras análises
realizadas, poderão ser obtidos entre 5 bilhões
e 8 bilhões de barris de petróleo. É o suficiente
para elevar em 40% a 60% as reservas da Petrobras e marcar uma conquista inédita: o Brasil
será o único país, desde as crises do petróleo
dos anos 70, a passar de importador para a condição de exportador líquido.
A Petrobras destinou para os próximos cinco
anos recursos da ordem de US$ 28 bilhões para
o desenvolvimento da produção no pré-sal. Mas,
antes mesmo de ser dada a largada para a sua exploração, indústrias nacionais e internacionais e
prestadores de serviços da gigantesca cadeia do petróleo – de estaleiros e fabricantes de plataformas
a produtores de peças, tubos, caldeiras e software
– estão se movimentando e fazendo a economia se
movimentar em ritmo mais acelerado.
O exemplo mais recente é o Estaleiro Atlântico Sul, em Pernambuco, que será o maior do
País e inicia atividades com um quadro de 2.400
funcionários e a contratação de 15 navios e do
casco de uma plataforma para a Transpetro, o
braço de transportes da Petrobras. A sua capa-
Copa do Mundo de 2014:
construção e modernização de
estádios, como o do Maracanã,
no Rio de Janeiro, vão exigir um
investimento de US$ 1,1 bilhão
criar um grande polo petroquímico, um setor
há duas décadas sem receber recursos.
A retomada do crescimento da economia e
o potencial que ela oferece estão longe de se esgotar no pré-sal. Uma gama de setores também
cria janelas de oportunidades. Para dar suporte
à sua expansão, o País está investindo pesado
em infraestrutura, uma das prioridades do Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento (PAC),
que vai injetar R$ 646 bilhões, até 2010, em
áreas como habitação, saneamento, transporte e energia, entre outros. O valor empenhado
em projetos do PAC (R$ 40,7 bilhões) e o já
pago (R$ 22,5 bilhões) dobraram em 2008. Em
março de 2009, foi lançado o programa Minha
Casa, Minha Vida. A iniciativa reaqueceu o
mercado, contribuiu para uma nova rodada de
investimentos privados no setor de construção
e, principalmente, criou melhores condições
de vida para os brasileiros.
Bem antes da chegada dos 500 mil a 600 mil
turistas que são esperados no Brasil, a Copa
do Mundo de 2014, disputada em 12 cidades
Balança comercial brasileira
Poder aquisitivo sobe
Financiamento imobiliário
Em US$ bilhões
Rendimento médio mensal (em R$)
Estoque cresceu 41% nos últimos 12 meses
(em R$ bilhões)
200
180
Saldo comercial
Exportação
Divulgação
“O Brasil é
uma democracia
madura, com
uma economia
diversificada e
uma população
jovem e adaptável
festejando um
firme crescimento
das taxas de
emprego e renda”
O país do futebol
espera receber mais de
500 mil turistas, com
fortes investimentos
na rede hoteleira
cidade de produção é de 150 mil toneladas, um
terço do que a indústria naval brasileira dispunha até agora. É o início de um novo ciclo de investimentos. Os financiamentos para a compra
de máquinas poderão chegar a US$ 80 bilhões
nos próximos dez anos, segundo estimativa do
Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES). O governo anunciou ainda que planeja aproveitar a onda do pré-sal para
Importação
74,1
75
750
160
140
70
700
120
65
650
100
60
80
600
60
55
550
50
Fonte: MDIC > Elaboração: MF/SPE
20 | BRASIL
BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE
ECONOMIA SUSTENTÁVEL
ECONOMY
2003
2008
Valores inflacionados pelo INPC com base em setembro de 2008, excluindo
a população da área rural de Rondônia, Acre, Amazonas, Roraima, Pará e Amapá
Fonte: IBGE/PNAD > Elaboração: MF/SPE
09
9
r0
09
8
8
8
z0
t0
o0
08
8
45
r0
2008
08
2007
jun
1998
2006
ab
1993
2005
fev
1988
2004
de
1983
2003
ou
1978
2002
ag
1973
2001
jun
1968
1999
de
1998
ab
500
7
0
-20
fev
20
z0
40
Fonte: Dados ABECIP, Banco Central
BRASIL
BRAZILECONOMIA
SUSTAINABLE
SUSTENTÁVEL
ECONOMY | 21
Nonononono
Com programas de
incentivo, habitação
popular tem registrado
crescimento elevado
Daniela Picoral
Leo Drumond/Agência Nitro
investimentos
País conquistou a
liderança na produção
mundial de carnes
juntamente com o petróleo, têm alta demanda
mundial e grande peso nas exportações.
Do petróleo à energia renovável – hidrelética, eólica e a dos biocombustíveis, campos
em que o País desenvolveu avançadas tecnologias –, grandes projetos estão em desenvolvimento, apoiados e, ao mesmo tempo, dando
continuidade a um ciclo que combina crescimento com avanços sociais.
brasileiras, começa a ter impacto sobre a economia. Além da construção e modernização de
estádios, que exigirão cerca de US$ 1,1 bilhão,
estão sendo realizados investimentos em obras
públicas – aeroportos, pavimentação, infraestrutura turística, segurança – e na ampliação da
rede hoteleira. A estimativa é que o valor total
dos investimentos ficará entre US$ 5 bilhões
e US$ 10 bilhões.
Transportes é um dos setores que estão mobilizando grandes recursos – entre projetos de
metrôs, veículos leves sobre trilhos, ferrovias de
cargas e trens urbanos, o País deverá investir
R$ 71 bilhões até 2014, com recursos do governo federal e dos governos estaduais. Os projetos
incluem o trem de alta velocidade (TAV), que
fará em duas horas a ligação entre São Paulo e o
Rio de Janeiro, as duas maiores cidades do País,
percorrendo um trecho de mais de 400 quilômetros. A primeira etapa deverá ser concluída
até a Copa do Mundo. Cerca de US$ 25 bilhões
serão empregados no transporte de cargas, ajudando a superar um dos principais entraves das
empresas para alcançar ganhos de competitividade na distribuição e aumentar as exportações. É um passo importante para consolidar
negócios como minérios e alimentos, que,
Acesso à habitação
Rentabilidade média
dos bancos
Menor déficit nominal do G-20
Número de unidades habitacionais financiadas
(média por período)
494.562
Política anticíclica com responsabilidade fiscal (em % PIB) – Estimativa FMI
Sobre o patrimônio, de janeiro a junho de 2009 (em %)
436.139
15
7,2
6
6,1 5,8
Fonte: Banco Central, ABECIP, SAI, CI-CAIXA > Elaboração: MF/SPE
22 | BRASIL
BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE
ECONOMIA SUSTENTÁVEL
ECONOMY
3,5 3,4
3,0 2,8 2,7
-5,3
-4,7
-6,1
-5,4
-5,9 -5,9
-5
-5,1
-6,2 -6,5 -6,2
-7,5 -7,5
-8,7
-10
2,1
2009
-12
-9,7
-9,8
-9,9 -9,8 -10,2
-10,9
2010
s
ido
ia
os
Un
Índ
Es
tad
o
pã
Un
ino
Ja
ido
a
nh
pa
Re
Es
ia
ss
Rú
ça
an
Fr
ia
qu
Tu
r
lia
Itá
ha
an
a
em
Al
áli
str
ud
Sa
ia
áb
Au
ita
o
xic
Mé
Ar
ina
Ch
dá
na
Ca
ina
ge
nt
ia
Ar
re
Co
ul
oS
ad
Áf
ric
on
és
ia
il
-13,6
Ind
oB
r
Br asil
Ita ade
sc
ú
Go Unib o
Fif ldm anc
a
o
th
Th n Sa
Am ird B chs
er an
ica co
r
n
Ex p
W pres
ell
sF s
ar
Ci go
U. tigro
S
Ba . Ba up
nk
n
of corp
Am
er
ica
JP
Mo
BB
Ba rga &T
nk n C
of
h
NY ase
Me
PN llon
C
B
Sa ank
nt
an
de
r
od
Lula
2003/2008
-4,3
-14
nc
Sarney
Collor/Itamar
FHC
1985/1989 1990/1994 1995/2002
Ba
Figueiredo
1979/1984
-3,4 -3,6 -3,6 -3,6 -3,6 -3,7 -3,8
-8
0
Geisel
1974/1978
-3,3
-2,8
-5
4,0 4,0
3
-1,4
-2,5 -2,2 -2,9
-3,2 -3,2
-4,7
as
173.879
-0,8
-1,9
-4
8,3
9
155.468
-2
11,2
10,1
12
Br
327.054
0
12,9
363.540
Fonte: FMI > Elaboração: MF/Gabinete
BRASIL
BRAZILECONOMIA
SUSTAINABLE
SUSTENTÁVEL
ECONOMY | 23
futuro
para o
Social development
Investimentos
Investments
Além de gerar empregos, as descobertas
vão servir como uma espécie de poupança
para reduzir a desigualdade social
A Petrobras está investindo
US$ 28 bilhões, mas os recursos totais
poderão chegar a US$ 190 bilhões
Besides generating jobs the reserve
found should serve as a sort
of savings to help decrease
social inequality
Petrobras is investing $ 28 billion,
but total resources may come
to $ 190 billion
Tesouro submerso
Aposta no amanhã
A exploração do petróleo na camada do
pré-sal ocorre a uma profundidade de
até 7 mil metros, equivalente à altura do
Himalaia. É um tesouro de proporções
ainda incalculáveis. Só a produção de Tupi,
o primeiro campo em fase de testes, poderá
aumentar as reservas brasileiras entre 40%
e 60%. A Petrobras está investindo US$ 28
bilhões nesse programa, mas os recursos
totais poderão chegar a US$ 190 bilhões.
Estima-se que o pré-sal deverá criar 700 mil
empregos nos próximos quatro anos em
toda a cadeia do petróleo.
Parte dos recursos do pré-sal
será destinada a um fundo social
para a realização de programas
sociais, ambientais, científicos
e culturais e iniciativas voltadas
para a redução das desigualdades
sociais, conforme projeto de
lei encaminhado ao Congresso
Nacional. Uma das prioridades
do fundo social será a educação,
considerada crucial para a
consolidação do desenvolvimento
e para promover um País mais justo.
A ticket to the future
Underwater
treasure
Betting on
tomorrow
New sources of oil and gas
will become a regular source
of resources to help fund education
and social projects focused
on science and technology,
culture, environmental preservation
and to fight poverty
The exploration of petroleum in the pre-salt
layer is made at a 7-thousand-meter depth –
about the height of Himalaya. It is an as-yet
incalculable treasure. The production of Tupi
reserve – the first field now in the test stage
– alone may increase Brazilian reserves from
40% to 60%. Petrobras is investing $ 28 billion
in this program, but total resources may come
to $ 190 billion. It is estimated that pre-salt
should generate 700 thousand jobs in the next
four years along the whole petroleum chain.
According to a Bill sent to the
National Congress some pre-salt
resources should be pigeonholed
to a Social Fund for social,
environmental, scientific and cultural
programs and efforts focused on
decreasing social inequalities.
Education will be one of the Social
Fund’s priorities – an issue that is
considered vital for development
and to create a fairer country.
Alaor Filho
As novas reservas de óleo e
gás serão uma fonte regular de
recursos para ajudar a financiar
a educação e os projetos sociais
voltados para a ciência e
tecnologia, cultura, preservação
ambiental e combate à pobreza
Nelio Rodrigues
Passaporte
social
Desenvolvimento
Marcelo Calenda
pre-salt
Tiago Lubambo
pré-sal
24 | BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY
BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY | 25