ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PORTUGAL: Technology Foresight, 2000 – 2020 - SYNTHESIS - L. Valadares Tavares CESUR – Centre of Urban and Regional Systems – Dept. of Civil Engineering and Architecture – Instituto Superior Técnico (IST), LISBON - PORTUGAL http:\\www.civil.ist.utl.pt/~et2000 Abstract The Project Engineering and Technology 2000 (ET 2000) was launched by three institutions, the Academy of Engineering (AE), the Society of Engineers (OE) and the Portuguese Industrial Association (AIP) on late 1999 and was completed on the end of 2000. A foresight project is always a process of analysis, conception and development searching for a more clear perspective about problems, tensions or woes, and oriented to design and to propose better approaches and strategies. ET 2000 was no exception. Still, as a Technology Foresight Project, specific questions were raised before being launched: A – Does Portugal, as a small economy, need a Technology Foresight Project? B – Should it be a Top-Down project or a Bottom-Up process? C – Which goals? D – Which approach? The developed project was based on clear answers to these questions: A – Yes, but not to “rediscover”, once again, the most promising key technologies. That has been already studied, several times, from US to France, and the frontiers of knowledge are universal. The answer to this question is yes, but to produce an updated diagnosis of the use of our Engineering and Technology (E&T) knowhow, for a more sustainable and competitive economy, during coming decades, and to develop a strategic vision about our future. B – A major challenge is the integration of experiences, opinions and know-how distributed through many professionals and institutions and therefore the basic “infra-structure” of this project should be a network based on an initial group and developed by diversified bottom-up processes. C – Major goals are the identification of strong and weak points of our E&T system, to build up scenarios for the next 10-20 years and to propose strategies to improve its contribution to the sustainability and competitiveness of portuguese society. D – Therefore, the adopted approach was demand-driven, starting from needs and trends of the studied economic sectors and looking for the major potential contribution of knowledge to achieve a better performance. The main results were published in a book presented and discussed by 400 participants, last November, during a Conference carried out at INETI (27-28 November 2000), and major contributions are included in this synthetic description. They cover: a) the adopted process and methodology including some new instruments like the model of impact matrices applied to the 17 economic sectors; b) a diagnostic perspective about how Portugal can meet the challenges of a knowledge-based society emphasizing six major “horizontal” issues: c) major scenarios and strategic proposals. Finally, specific initiatives are discussed and presented herein. L. Valadares Tavares NOTE This book presents major analyses and proposals developed by the FORESIGHT PROJECT “ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY 2000 (ET 2000)” promoted by Academia de Engenharia (Academy of Engineering), Ordem dos Engenheiros (Society of Engineers) and Associação Industrial Portuguesa (Portuguese Industrial Association) during 1999 and 2000. The final report of this project was published as a book, Tavares, L. V., “A Engenharia e a Tecnologia ao Serviço do Desenvolvimento em Portugal: Prospectiva e Estratégia 2000 – 2020”, VERBO, Lisbon, 2000 (in portuguese). This synthetic presentation is based on that book and on the specialized reports written by several colleagues from firms and universities: Abel Mateus, António Antunes e Maria Filomena Medes Paulo Ferrão, Ascenso Pires e Ângela Canas Manuel Heitor e Pedro Conceição Amado Silva e Francisco Mendes Palma José Paulo Esperança Maria da Conceição Santos Gaspar Nero e Silvia Nereu Fernando Branco e Adriana Garcia Jaime Melo Baptista e Eduarda Beja Neves Alberto Moreno e Francisco Mendes Palma Xavier Malcata e F. Gomes Silva Epifânio da Franca Ruy Mesquita, Paulo Peças e Sales Gomes Rui Felizardo, Alexandre Videira e Luís Palma Féria Luís Almeida Joaquim Leandro de Melo e Fortunato Frederico Ramôa Ribeiro e Clemente Pedro Nunes José Manuel Viegas José Filipe Rafael e António M. Beja Altamiro Machado e Eduardo Beira João Bento, Rui Gonçalves Henriques, Cristina Gouveia e Beatriz Condessa Manuel João Pereira Ricardo Oliveira e Luís Maltez Carlos Henggeler Antunes, Carla Oliveira, Luís Lapão. The participation of several colleagues during the November Conference was also particularly important, namely: António Alfaiate, Luís Mira Amaral, F. Nunes Correia, Sousa Gomes, Mário Lino, M. Athayde Marques, P. Norton de Matos, Maximiano Martins, Carlos Campos Morais, Manuel Norton, Maria João Rodrigues, João Salgueiro, J. Gomes Simão, Sérgio Trindade, Special thanks are due to the cooperation of Manuel Heitor, João Bártolo, C. Henggeler Antunes and Luís Lapão. Our foreign colleagues were a source of useful inspiration but special thanks are due to Prof. James Kahan from RAND Europe for his innovative and friendly suggestions. The project ET 2000 was carried out by CESUR – Centre of Urban and Regional Systems of the Department of Civil Engineering and Architecthure (DEC) of IST (Instituto Superior Técnico) under a contract with the Portuguese Industrial Association. Thanks are due to Patrícia Nunes for processing this document. The author is responsible for any deficiency or limitation of this book. L. Valadares Tavares INDEX 1 THE PROJECT: ET 2000 ............................................................................................................................ 2 1.1 1.2 1.3 OBJECTIVES ......................................................................................................................................... 2 METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................................. 2 THE PROCESS ....................................................................................................................................... 6 2 PORTUGAL 2000: WHAT ECONOMIC, BUSINESS, TECHNOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL DIAGNOSIS? ................................................................................................................. 10 2.1 DEVELOPMENT AND KNOWLEDGE ............................................................................................. 10 2.2 DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENT.......................................................................................... 14 2.2.1 Environment and Industrial Ecology ............................................................................................ 14 2.2.2 Thematic Challenges ..................................................................................................................... 15 2.2.3 Growth with more pollution and consumption of materials .......................................................... 16 2.3 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION ....................................................................... 17 2.4 DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONALIZATION AND TECHNOLOGICAL MARKETING .......... 19 2.5 DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN CAPITAL ...................................................................................... 20 2.5.1 Higher Education .......................................................................................................................... 21 2.5.2 Research and Development (RD) .................................................................................................. 22 2.6 PORTUGAL BENCHMARKING ........................................................................................................ 24 3 WHICH FUTURE SCENARIOS? ............................................................................................................ 31 3.1 EUROPE ............................................................................................................................................... 31 3.2 TECHNOLOGICAL FUTURE............................................................................................................. 33 3.3 THE PORTUGUESE SOCIETY .......................................................................................................... 34 3.4 STUDIED SECTORS ........................................................................................................................... 35 3.4.1 Building Materials ........................................................................................................................ 35 3.4.2 Construction .................................................................................................................................. 36 3.4.3 Environment .................................................................................................................................. 36 3.4.4 Energy ........................................................................................................................................... 36 3.4.5 Food and Beverages ...................................................................................................................... 37 3.4.6 Electronics .................................................................................................................................... 37 3.4.7 Metal and Plastic Production........................................................................................................ 38 3.4.8 Automobile Industry ...................................................................................................................... 38 3.4.9 Textiles and Clothes ...................................................................................................................... 39 3.4.10 Shoes ............................................................................................................................................. 39 3.4.11 Chemical Industry ......................................................................................................................... 40 3.4.12 Transportation............................................................................................................................... 41 3.4.13 Telecommunications ...................................................................................................................... 41 3.4.14 Information Technologies ............................................................................................................. 42 3.4.15 Geographical Information Systems (GIS) ..................................................................................... 43 3.4.16 Financial Services ......................................................................................................................... 43 3.4.17 Engineering Services ..................................................................................................................... 44 4 STRATEGIES AND POLICIES................................................................................................................ 46 4.1 ENVIRONMENT AND INNOVATION .............................................................................................. 46 4.2 COMPETITIVENESS AND KNOWLEDGE ...................................................................................... 46 4.3 KNOWLEDGE AND COMPETITIVENESS FOR THE 17 STUDIED SECTORS ............................ 49 4.4 A STRATEGIC VISION FOR ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY IN PORTUGAL ................. 52 4.4.1 Conditions ..................................................................................................................................... 52 4.4.2 Guidelines ..................................................................................................................................... 53 4.5 PROPOSALS ........................................................................................................................................ 55 4.6 FINAL WORDS.................................................................................................................................... 60 5 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................ 61 ANNEX: The network of the Human Capital iii “A NEW STRATEGIC GOAL FOR THE NEXT DECADE: TO BECOME THE MOST COMPETITIVE AND DYNAMIC KNOWLEDGE – BASED ECONOMY IN THE WORLD” Lisbon Council of the European Union 23-24 March 2000 “IN MY VILLAGE, WE WERE POOR, EVEN THE RICH PEOPLE, BECAUSE WE HAD NO SENSE OF FUTURE” Salvador Caetano, CEO of the automobile sector Portugal, June 2000 “THE MISSION OF FORESIGHT IS NOT PLANNING THE FUTURE BUT RATHER PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE AS IT IS BECOMING MORE UNCERTAIN AND UNPREDICTABLE” L. Valadares Tavares November 2000 iv INSTITUTIONAL PERSPECTIVES: “… we have to boost technology and innovation with the purpose of increasing competitiveness and productivity of portuguese firms. I have accepted to be the Chairman of the Honour Committee of ET 2000 to underline the merits of its objectives and methodology. We have to share experiences, woes and expectations in order that easy turnkey solutions will be rejected and a new more promising future will be invented” Jorge Sampaio, Presidente da República “… We hope that the results of ET 2000 will contribute to the mission of Academia de Engenharia: “PRO HOMINIS DIGNITATE INGENIUM” Armando Lencastre, Presidente da Academia de Engenharia “… Engineering and technological qualifications are essential to cope with economic growth and increasing societal complexity. Therefore, Engineering and Technology are key factors for a development model towards the Knowledge Society” Francisco Sousa Soares, Bastonário da Ordem dos Engenheiros “… The main reason to launch this project stems from the awareness about the nature of the key challenges for the future of Portugal: strategic development and use of Engineering and Technology know-how to improve sustainability and competitiveness of our firms” João Bártolo, Presidente do Conselho Orientador v 1. THE PROJECT: ET 2000 “The void o’th’ world must with an arch be spanned The ways of Nature must be read aright That there may be a wise and friendly hand To make this dark world better and more bright Oh, with what joy and love I understand These master-souls that ache for truth and light” Fernando Pessoa*, 1907 * Fernando Pessoa is a portuguese poet born in South Africa and considered as one of the most important european poets of the 20th century. He has a complex heteronymic structure and a vast collection of poems, written in portuguese, french and english with deep insights about the identity and the future of Portugal and of Europe. 1 1 1.1 THE PROJECT: ET 2000 OBJECTIVES The challenges of economic development are requiring a new conception of corporation, opening wider perspectives on strategy, market relationship, reengineering, benchmarking and human capital. However, during the last years, the crucial role of the engineer or of the technologist in many portuguese firms is being faded gradually and is been replaced by more attractive and popular profiles based on Management, Business, Commerce. An well known portuguese CEO when asked about technology gave a clear answer: if required, we will buy it! Therefore, a central and open question to be examined is: what is the role of Engineering and Technology (E&T) to increase the competitiveness of our firms and to improve the pace of development for Portugal. This is the research question of ET 2000 aiming to propose specific actions to boost the contribution of Engineering and Technology for the development of our country. The specific goals of ET 2000 are: A – Discussion of major scenarios for portuguese firms B – Competitiveness analysis C – Diagnosis of human capital D – Study of knowledge and innovation networks E – Enhancing the contribution of E&T role for major value chains F – Design of E&T profiles and evaluation of strategic options G –Strategic analysis about the role of Research and Development (RD), Education and Training H – Promotion of debates. 1.2 METHODOLOGY ET 2000 concerns Engineering Technology and Competitiveness and hence basic definitions have been proposed: Engineering: Conception, design and implementation of systems or the production of goods or services devoted to the fulfilment of society’s needs, founded on scientific and technological knowledge and developed according to paradigms of ethics, effectiveness and efficiency as well as environmental sustainability and equilibrium. Technology: Capacity to develop artefacts through operational applications of scientific knowledge with the same paradigms of Engineering. Competitiveness: ability to promote sustainable and profitable sales in markets with strict requirements. The adopted methodology has been based on several scientific contributions and on original interdisciplinary models. Such contributions include proposals by (Godet, 1991), OECD (OECD, 1977) and Rand (Kahan and Cave, 2000). They emphasize the open and process oriented nature of Foresight, the belief that we can construct a better future and the commitment to support a strategic vision about the role of E&T. The proposed models include: 2 I – A cross-disciplinary networking based on ISSUES and SECTORS: ISSUES: Macro-Societal Scenarios, Macro-Economic Scenarios, Business Dynamics, Environment, Innovation, Technological Marketing, Internationalization SECTORS: Building Materials, Construction, Environment, Energy, Food Industry, Electronics, Metal and Plastic Products and Manufacturing, Automobile Industry, Textiles and Fashion, Shoes Industry, Chemical Industry, Transports and Distribution, Telecommunications, Information Technologies, Geographic Information Systems, Financial Services, Engineering Services. II – A specification of major Areas of Knowledge for ET 2000 After several debates, the following list was selected (each area is subdivided in 4 to 6 sub-areas): Process Technologies (PR) Biotechnology (BT) Materials (MT) Discrete Production (DP) Energy (EN) Opto – Electronics (OE) Information and Communication Systems Engineering (SE) Infra-Structuring and Construction (ICT) Environmental Technologies (ET) Transportation Technologies (TT) III – a taxonomy of knowledge This classification has a key role in ET 2000 as it is not based on traditional schemes but rather on the strategic functionality of each type of knowledge: A – Planning and Evaluation B – Procurement C – Conception and Design D – Production E – Integration and Management F – Maintenance G – Rehabilitation H – Use and Operation I – Training IV – A firm’s value chain for knowledge The adopted model is presented in Fig. 1.1. 3 Policies Strategic Development Tactical and Operational Management Driving and Leadership Materials X X Channels Equipment X X Competitors Supply Products Process Patents And Rights X Markets X Technological Infra-structure RD Skills (Human Resources) Equipments Value Chain for Knowledge Fig. 1.1 4 V – Impact Matrices These matrices describe the impact of each area of knowledge (i = 1, …, M = 11) I on each type product (j=1, …, Nk) of each economic sector of activity (k=1, …, K=17). Thus, for each sector k, a survey was carried out to estimate the impact level of i on j: X ij (k ) where 0 – No impact 1 – Small impact 2 – High impact 3 – Very high impact X ij (k ) is a measure of the relevance of area i for j in sector k Products j = 1, …, Nj Areas i=1, …, M for each k X ij (k ) The following indicators can be computed in terms of Xij: Average Relevance of Area i for Sector k J ( k ) Yi (k ) X ij (k ) J (k ) j1 where J(k) is the number of products for sector k. Technological Intensity of Sector k I (k ) YS (k ) Yi (k ) i 1 I( k ) where I (k) is the number of areas with Yi (k)0. Technological Dispersion of Sector k DS(k ) N Yi k 2 M 11 5 Global Relevance of Area i K Yi (k ) Z i k 1 K Construction of Scenarios The construction of Scenarios was based on the combination of different types of evolution for key morphological features of Europe and of Portugal. The following features were identified: a) Europe: Competitiveness Integration Social Protection Fragmentation b) Portugal: Civil Society State Transformation Stagnation International Openness Closeness Sustainability Unstability 1.3 THE PROCESS The development of a Foresight Project is useful not just for its results but also for the developed process. The ET 2000 process was based on a rich and diversified system of networks involving multiple actors with different motivations: A – Coordinators and Co-coordinators of specialized groups: LEADERS – NETWORK Each issue or analysed sector had a specialized group which was chaired by a coordinator (“pilot”) and cocoordinator (“co-pilot”). The former was an academic and the latter coming from a related business. This network brought to the project a vast and diversified ground of experiences and knowledge. In Fig. 1.2 the main academic and business institutions are represented. 6 LNEC – National Laboratory of Civil Engineering IST – Higher Technical Institute (Technical University of Lisbon) AUL – Autonomous University of Lisbon FEUP – Faculty of Engineering of Oporto University (INESC) IST (Coordination) UNL – New University of Lisbon Minho University ISCTE – Higher Institute for Sciences of Labour and Administration UC – Coimbra University UCP – Portuguese Catholic University CNIG COBA CAP-Gemini CHIPIDEA EFACEC BANIF IPE AD-TRANS ITEC Agência para o investimento no Norte Luís Simões Somague Papelaco Renault Quimigal PT - Inovação Leaders - Network Fig. 1.2 7 B – Representatives of public and private institutions: Academic – Business Council: ADVISORY NETWORK This council met in important moments of the project to give strategic advises about the development of the project. Furthermore, additional meetings were organized by AIP by AEP (Portugal Business Association) and by OE. C – International methodologic group: INTERNATIONAL PANEL This group includes Mr. Barry Stevens, OECD International Futures Programme, Prof. David Gibson, IC2 Institute, The University of Texas at Austin, USA, Prof. Giorgio Sirilli, Inst. Of Studies of Scientific Research, ISRDS, IT, Prof. H. Muller-Merbach, Kaiserslautern University, Germany, Prof. J. P. Contzen, Scientific Advisor of the Minister of Science and technology during the Portuguese Presidency of the EU, Prof. James Gavigan, IPTS, European Commission, Dr. James Kahan, Rand Europe, Dr. Jonathan Cave, Rand Europe, Prof. Keith White-Hunt, Hong-Kong Science and Technology University, PRC, Prof. Konstandinos Goulias, The Pennsylvania State University, USA, Prof. Peter Idenburg, Delft Univ. Technology, NL, Prof. Leo Jansen, Interdept. Research Programme Netherlands, Prof. Robert Wilson, LBJ School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin, USA, Dr. Thomas Haeringer, Baden-Wurttemberg, DE, Prof. Wolfgang Michalski, OECD, International Futures Programme (Director). Three meetings about international cooperation and methodological issues have taken place in Lisbon. The general structure of the project is represented in Fig. 1.3: HONORARY CHAIRMAN OF ET 2000: HIS EXCELLENCY THE PRESIDENT OF REPUBLIC CHAIRMANSHIP OF THE PROJECT Prof. Armando Lencastre (AE), Comendador Jorge Rocha de Matos (AIP), Eng.º Sousa Soares (OE), Eng.º João Bártolo, Prof. Luís Valadares Tavares, Eng.º Pereira do Vale ADVISORY COMMITTEE Eng.º João Bártolo (presidente), Eng.º Marques Videira (AE), Eng.º António Alfaiate (AIP), Eng.º Viana Baptista (OE), Prof. Luís Valadares Tavares (Director), Eng.º Pereira do Vale (General Secretary) CONFERENCE COMMITTEE Prof. L. Valadares Tavares (president), Prof. Ricardo Oliveira (AE), Prof.ª Graça Carvalho (OE), Eng.º Luís Lapão (IST), Dr. Pereira Bastos (AIP) ACADEMIC – BUSINESS COUNCIL DIRECTOR OF THE PROJECT Prof. Luís Valadares Tavares Prof. Luís Valente de Oliveira PROJECT TEAM - CESUR LEADERS NETWORK and SPECIALIZED GROUPS ET 2000 Structure Fig. 1.3 8 2. Portugal 2000: What Economic, Business, Technological and Environmental Diagnosis? “This is a country, measureless – but real More than the life the world appears to have And more the Nature itself natural To the frightening truth of being alive Fernando Pessoa , 1910 9 2 PORTUGAL 2000: WHAT ECONOMIC, ENVIRONMENTAL DIAGNOSIS? 2.1 BUSINESS, TECHNOLOGICAL AND DEVELOPMENT AND KNOWLEDGE Portugal is experiencing a process of growth, increasing income and consumption, changing values and uses, moving from primary and manufacturing activities to a more open and services oriented economy. Portuguese GDP expressed in PPP (Purchased Parity Power) is presented in terms of EU average in next figure. Real Convergence to European Union % 120 Ireland 110 100 90 Spain 80 70 Portugal 60 50 40 19 60 19 61 19 62 19 63 19 64 19 65 19 66 19 67 19 68 19 69 19 70 19 71 19 72 19 73 19 74 19 75 19 76 19 77 19 78 19 79 19 80 19 81 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 30 Espanha Irlanda Portugal Real Convergence to European Union Fig. 2.1 This growth can be explained by the usual factors – Labour (L), Human Capital (H), Physical Capital (F) using Cobb-Douglas methodology and the average annual growth rates of these magnitudes are presented on Table 2.1. Table 2.1 Average Rates of Annual Growth for Portuguese Economy Period L H F 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-00 0.20 0.26 -0.29 0.03 0.15 1.14 0.42 1.69 1.43 1.50 2.44 2.37 2.36 1.49 1.42 Residuals (Total productivity, P) 0.51 2.80 1.47 1.26 -0.22 GDP 4.29 5.85 5.24 4.21 2.84 The following conclusions can be drawn up: - growth has slowed down last decade; 10 - during eighties, H and P have a similar growth, near 1/3 of the total; during the nineties, the total productivity growth is negative and the growth of L and F is similar This analysis is consistent with the low productivity existing in Portugal (1997) around 58% of OECD average: Country GDP for working hour (% of OECD average) 96 102 128 97 92 93 123 105 75 108 106 82 121 69 126 56 84 93 94 36 100 120 103 Australia Austria Belgium Canada Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Japan Netherlands New Zealand Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK US EU=14 Obviously, there results are also correlated with the Gross Added Value sectoral structure as it is shown in Fig. 2.2 where the small contribution of “knowledge sectors” for Portugal is quite clear: 60 6 50 % Total 40 7 30 5 20 4 2 1: High Technology Industry 4: Communications 2: Medium Technology Industry 5: Banking and Insurance EUA Germany Japan OCDE Canada Sweden United Kingdom 3 Netherlands EU France Belgium 1 Australia Austria Finland Denmark Italy Mexico Corea Spain New Zealand Norway Spain Iceland 0 Portugal 10 3: 1 + 2 Community Services and Others 7: 5 + 6 Knowledge Sectors Fig. 2.2 11 155 GDP (PPP) as % of UE average (1997) EUA 135 Norway Denmark Canada Belgium 115 Australia Italy Finland Sweden 95 Spain 75 Japan Netherlands France Germany U. K. New Zealand Portugal Greece Corea 55 Hungary Mexico 35 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00 65.00 % of knowledge sectors in total GAV (1997) Relationship between GDP and “Know ledge sectors” Fig. 2.3 These results are important because GDP tends to be correlated with the percentage of the “knowledge sectors” in total GAV (Fig. 2.3). Therefore, special attention should be given to the diagnostic analysis of the technological effort carried out by Portugal and such analysis is based on a new indicator proposed by ET2000 and called, Technological Effort – TE defined by the sum of: A – RD expenses B – Net Deficit of the National Technological Balance (just for non-incorporated technology) C – Acquisition of computer systems (hardware, software, services) D – Foreign Direct Investment A is measure of the production of knowledge, B describes the net import of knowledge, C includes the investment on Information Technology and D measures an important inflow assuming that it is associated to a higher level of knowledge or technology. All these indicators are expressed as a percentage of GDP. The estimated TE for Portugal is compared to other OECD countries (Fig. 2.4): 12 16 14 4 3 2 1 Expenditure as a % of GDP 12 5 10 8 6 4 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 -2 Countries 1 ID Intensity IDE 3 Technological Balance Deficit 4 HardwareHardware 5 SoftwareSoftware & Serv.& Serv. I&D 2 Intensity IDE Débitos Balança Tecnológica 1 – Sweden 4 – U.K 2 – Belgium 5 – Switzerland 3 – Netherlands 6 – USA 7 – Denmark 8 – Ireland 9 – France 10 – Cheek Republic 11 – Canada 12 – Hungary 13 – Finland 14 – Australia 15 – Norway 16 – Japan 17 – Germany 18 – Poland 19 – Austria 20 – Chorea 21 – Portugal 22 – New Zealand 23 – Mexico 24 – Spain 25 – Italy 26 – Greece 27 – Turkey Technological Effort Fig. 2.4 1 A 2 D 3 C 4 Hardware 5 Software and Services This comparative analysis shows that Portugal is making a reasonable effort, higher than other countries such as Spain. However, other peripheral or small successful European countries such as Finland, Ireland or Netherlands have a much higher effort level. The studied 17 sectors have been analysed in terms of KPL (Knowledge Production Level) and KNIL (Knowledge Net Import Level) defined by: KPL A B and KNIL S S where S represents the total sales of each sector. These two indicators can be used to produce a SECTORAL MAP of KNOWLEDGE for the 17 sectors (Fig. 2.5) 13 0.800% EL - NPC 0.700% IT Knowledge Production Level (KPL) 0.600% 0.500% CH MP 0.400% ES 0.300% 0.200% TL EV EN 0.100% BM TX TD SI -0.01 -0.005 AI FI 0.000% CT 0 FS 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 Knowledge Net Import Level Building Materials (BM), Construction (CT), Environment (EV), Energy (EN), Food Industry (FI), Electronics (EL), Metal and Plastic Products and Manufacturing (MP), Automobile Industry (AI), Textiles (TX), Shoes Industry (SI), Chemistry (CH), Transportation and Distribution (TD), Telecommunications (TL), Information Technologies (IT), GIS, Financial Services (FS), Engineering Services (ES) Sectoral Map of Knowledge Fig. 2.5 It should be noted that KPL may be underestimated for Engineering Services and Environment as they rely also on significant RD carried out by universities and other public institutions. This figure shows that: - there is a group of sectors with reasonably high level of knowledge production: Chemistry, Technology Information, GIS, Electronics, Metal and Plastic Products and Manufacturing and Engineering Services. Engineering Services are, by far, the most relevant exporter of knowledge The Automobile industry is an exceptional case where there is a high level of imports of knowledge but negligible production The curve suggests different stages of an evolution towards an export stage There is a cluster of sectors with very little activity either producing or important knowledge. 2.2 DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENT 2.2.1 Environment and Industrial Ecology Sustainable development implies keeping harmony between the environmental equilibrium and the pressure generated by growing consumption as well as by a more intensive use of resources. This is the main motivation for the development of Industrial Ecology (Graedel and Allenby, 1995). This approach implies considering the integrated life cycle of any product as a closed cycle of any product minimizing wastage and discovering new ways to recycle, to reuse, to recover, to rehabilitate whatever has to be extracted or produced to fulfil needs and demand. All externalities have to be identified and different schemes can be suggested to implement this new approach such as: - recycling systems within industry exchange systems for residuals creating a market between different industries and sectors industrial eco-parks developing a regional framework to optimize all processes required by Industrial Ecology. 14 This new domain is a source of business innovation creating new opportunities for the “green” business and for SMEs (Small and Medium Enterprises) as it is shown by (Esty and Porter, 1998). 2.2.2 Thematic Challenges Several organizations have focused major thematic challenges for environment, namely: - Environment European Agency, (EEA, 1999) Direcção – Geral do Ambiente, (DGA, 1999) and the following list can be quoted: I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX Greenhouse effect Ozone decay Air quality Water resources scarcity Soils Waste Natural and technological risks Biodiversity Genetical modified organisms The study of these 9 issues requires appropriate indicators and they can be classified according to their meaning to understand environmental processes: DF Driving forces P Pressure S State I Impact R Response The present situation of these indicators for Portugal can be described in terms of three different alternative situations: A Availability of Indicators and Data B Availability of Indicators but Unavailability Data C Unavailability of Indicators and of Data. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Building Materials Construction Environment Energy Food Industry Electronics DF P S I R I C A B C II C B B III C C B DF P S I R DF P S I R DF P S I R B C A B C C A A B C A C C B C C C B C C B C C C B C C B C B A A B B B C B B C C IV A A B C B V A C B C B A A C B B C A C C B VII A B C C C VIII A B A C B VI C A C C C DF C P A S C I B R B B B C C C DF P S I R C C B C B C C C C C 15 7 Metal and Plastic Products and Manufacturing 8 Automobile Industry 9 Textiles DF P S I R DF P S I R C B C C C A A B C A III C A B C C A A B C A IV C C C B C V C B B C C A A B C C VI C A C C C A A C C C VII C C B C C I DF P S 10 Shoes Industry I R DF P S I 11 Chemistry R DF P S 12 Transportation and Distribution I R DF P S I R A A B C A A A B B B A A C C C II C A VIII 2.2.3 A A C B C B C C C B C B C A B C B C B B B C C B B C B C A C C C C B C C C C C Growth with more pollution and consumption of materials The overall level of pollution per inhabitant is lower in Portugal than the EU average as we have a lower industrial production. However, the analysis of the pollution load generated in each GDP unit shown that its level is increasing. In Table 2.2, the production of gases (greenhouse effect) per GDP unit (10 6 PTE) is presented for 1990 and 1995. Table 2.2 CO2 CH4 N2O NOx CO NMVOC* 1990 1995 1990 1995 1990 1995 1990 1995 1990 1995 1990 1995 12.78 22.49 0.0021 0.005 0.0002 0.0003 0.05 0.08 0.003 0.006 0.020 0.07 and Manufacturing 0.50 0.81 37 34 14 19 0.01 - 1.8E-05 2.2E-05 Food Industry 0.48 0.51 240 277 34 33 - - - - - - Textiles 0.74 0.82 78 73 25 24 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 3.43 2.96 399 366 47 40 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Energy Metal and Plastic Products Shoes Industry Building Materials Construction 0.00001 0.00001 Electronics - - - - Chemistry 0.92 1.47 0.0004 0.0004 3.2E-05 3.1E-05 0.0006 - - - - - 0.0006 0 0 0.002 0.002 10.53 13.70 0.0049 0.0052 4.2E-04 7.4E-04 0.17 0.21 0.56 0.82 0.06 0.08 - - - - - - Transportation and Distribution Automobile Industry - - - - Financial Services 0.0003 0.010 8.8E-09 2.1E-07 1.8E-08 3.9E-07 1.4E-06 2.3E-05 - - 0 0 1.1E-07 1.9E-06 Environment 0.0330 0.002 7.3E-07 4.5E-08 3.2E-07 9.8E-08 8.2E-05 2.7E-05 0 0 2.6E-06 2.2E-06 0 0 2.1E-05 2.3E-05 Telecommunications 0.0250 0.043 5.3E-07 9.3E-07 1.1E-06 1.8E-06 0.0003 * Non methane volatile organic compounds 2.7E-04 showing that our economic growth is increasing the pollution effect except for the building materials sector, probably due to additional filtering in the cement industry and fuel substitution. 16 Another important perspective concerns the relationship between the direct consumption of materials (Direct Materials Input) and GDP. Unfortunately, DMI is increasing quite significantly as it is shown in next figure. DMI, Direct Material Input per capita (1988-1995) Fig. 2.6 2.3 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION Innovation is a main source of value generation in modern business and two major types have been defined: product innovation and process innovation. Both have a key importance for Portugal: - Product innovation is required to design and to launch new products. Actually, a main problem of portuguese firms is the lack of “final products” either in Industry or in Services Process innovation is essential to improve efficiency and as it was pointed out portuguese productivity is a long way behind OECD average. A third type of innovation may be proposed: channel innovation concerning the adopted systems to reach the consumers markets. The new revolution of E-Business allows a new range of channels globalizing markets and firms. However, innovation requires build up effective networks of partners and such behaviour implies a good deal of trust between multiple actors. Such level is quite low in countries like Portugal as it is shown in Figure where it is presented the percentage of positive answers to the question “can we trust other people?” (World Values Survey) 17 Fig. 2.7 Social Trust Norway Finland Sweden Denmark Canada Australia Netherlands US UK Switzerland Iceland Japan Ireland Korea Spain Austria Belgium Germany Italy France Portugal Mexico Turkey 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 A Measure of Trust Also, the contribution given by foreign corporations active in Portugal is rather limited to the objective of innovation and research: Table 2.3 RD of American corporations in European countries Country RD/employee Royalties and licences / (103 US dol/empl.) RD expenses Ireland 3,8 3% Germany 3,5 1% Spain 0,6 5% France 1,5 4% U. K. 2,3 0,5% Portugal 0,1 33% Greece 0,1 6% The studies on innovation carried but by ET2000 allow the following conclusions: Major limitations are due to the so called “intensity effect” correlated with low educational levels, low RD and low synergies between institutions (universities, firms, etc.) The so-called “structural effect” due to an economic structure including traditional sectors is important, too. Despite the increasing importance of Services, traditional manufacturing industries like textiles, shoes and some food industries are quite important. Shoes have started more innovative processes than the others and results are promising. There is an obvious need to integrate policies for Science, Technology and Innovation, requiring more effective links between universities, other public institutions and corporations. The potential offered by digital technologies has a vital importance despite debatable results about its impact on productivity. The delays on liberalization of communications and on disseminating E-Business are not favourable to explore these new opportunities. portuguese labour legal framework is comparatively more rigid that the regulation existing in most OECD countries, even in southern Europe, and this is not a positive contribution to innovation as it implies and it 18 generates changes. After all, the words of Schumpeter can be quoted: “Innovation is a process of creative destruction”. Finally, an analysis of innovation would remain incomplete without looking at its major contributor: the entrepreneur. However, the process of decision making of the entrepreneur or manager to overcome problems and difficulties tends to look for innovation just after several other attempts as it is presented in the following “staircase” of decision stages: Fig. 2.8 The “staircase” of the portuguese manager Decisional Options Innovation? Cost reduction Market “protection” to increase revenues Demand for State subsidies 2.4 DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONALIZATION AND TECHNOLOGICAL MARKETING The process of progressive international openness of portuguese economy has been crucial to the increase of our national income despite obvious problems for the less competitive economic sectors (namely, primary sector). New digital and communication technologies are globalizing markets allowing not just the distribution and sales of products, far way from their production sites, but also a similar trend for personal and commercial services. The small size of our economy has been partially overcome through processes of merging and concentration ignoring alternative strategies based on cooperation, partnership and networking. Internationalization tends to be inevitable for small economies as it is the case of Portugal and benchmarking for competitiveness is urgent within a globalized market framework. Globalized markets imply intensive use of technology and, particularly, of technologic marketing tools. The concept of technologic marketing applies either to the sales of technologic products such as computers or mobile phones or to the use of technology to market any product or service (ATM, Internet, etc.). Assuming that portuguese economy is focusing on services, technological marketing becomes crucially important. However, data about computers (just 11% of families have a PC against an average of 18% in EU) and, even more, about E-Business show a clear delay. Fortunately, the reduced use of computers at home is compensated by an wider access at workplaces or universities. Table 2.4 Access to computers and internet % of individuals ( 15 years) 1997 (Sept. – Dec.) - having access to a computer 47.8% - having access to internet 13.0% (4.3%)* *in Spain 1999 (Apr. – Jun) 51.4% 21.6% (9%)* The comparison of internet use with Spain is favourable to Portugal and the place selected for that use is quite different: in Portugal, 20% of users do it from home and 40% from work or from study places but in Spain 40% of users do it from home, 40% form the work place and 20% from study place. 19 In Portugal, e-shopping is still rather small (about 106 contos around 1999) and more peripheral regions like Azores and Madeira lead this business. B2B is in an infant stage but several leading economic groups are now heavily investing on this new area (Trade.com, Forum B to B, etc.). The activity to interconnect these market places with portuguese firms, namely SMEs will be a key condition for success. Of course, all this new age of technology in E-Business is an excellent opportunity for Engineering and Technology in Portugal . Several priority areas include computer and communication systems, management information systems (namely to interconnect SMEs with marketplaces), datamining and CRS (customer relationship systems), website engineering, decision systems, etc. A less developed know-how on Engineering and Technology for these new areas will condemn Portugal to be an economy oriented for low added value services, loosing competitiveness in international markets. 2.5 DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN CAPITAL The educational qualification of portuguese population (25 64 years old) has a much lower level than most OECD countries as it is shown in next Figure: just around 20% have completed upper secondary education or higher, against about 30%, 50%, 60% or 65% for Spain, Ireland, Netherlands and Finland, respectively. The evolution of the population having completed upper secondary education (level 3 according to ISCED and in Portugal 12th grade) can be simulated for the horizon of 2020 in terms of the educational achievement for age group: Year 2000: % level 3 18% 1577 1397 1238 908 Population (103 inhab) 30 % 20% 10% 5% % level 3 25 35 45 55 65 Age group (years) 1497 (present age group 15-25) Year 2010: % level 3 30% 55% 30% 20% 10% 1198 (present age group 5-14) Year 2020: % level 3 39% X 55% 30% 20% 48% 60%* X Nowadays X is around 50% 100% Fig. 2.9 Simulation of the evolution of portuguese population with level 3 This model shows that Portugal will not exceed 40% if there is no significant jump in the achievements from present rate 20 2.5.1 Higher Education a) Trends The improvement of Higher Education in quantitative and qualitative terms is essential to develop Engineering and Technology. In Portugal, the percentage of the active population with higher education is around 10% (1996) against an average of 23% in OECD (OECD, 1998) and levels of 18%m 23%, 21% and 23% for Spain, Ireland, Finland and Netherlands, respectively. During the last decade the inflow of Portugal students to Higher Education had an huge increase reaching a population of around 351 000 students on 1996/7 but since then the inflow has been decreasing due to the decrease of birth rate (since 1978) and also due to the stagnation (or even reduction) of participation rates above 21 years old: Age 16 19 21 23 25 Table 2.5 Participation Rate (ME, 1999) Year 96/97 83% 63% 35% 26% 15% 97/98 85% 66% 33% 23% 14% Therefore, the forecast of 229000 students for 2005/6 can be even an overestimation of the population of students in Higher Education. b) Comparative analysis The graduation rate (number of students completing higher education in terms of their population group) for Portugal has increased but is lower than in other reference countries (OECD, 1998): Table 2.6 Country Portugal Spain Ireland Netherlands Finland Graduation rate (%) - 1996 16% 27% 26% 20% 24% showing that we still have a deficit between 5 and 10%. The percentage of portuguese students completing long programs (“licenciatura”, 4-5 years) has increased as the percentage of those completing a B. Sc has fallen down from 40% to 26% between 1992 and 1996. This is quite negative for Engineering and Technology as the increasing scarcity of technologists qualified with an intermediate level is a very serious shortcoming to the competitiveness of our Economy. The distribution of graduates per subject can be compared also with other countries 21 Table 2.7 % candidates Portugal 98 Sciences, Mathematics, Computers, Engineering and Architecture Law, Social Sciences, Education, Humanities, Economics, Management and Arts Health Portugal 96 % graduates Ireland Netherlands 96 96 23% 21% 30% 56% 72% 65% 19% 7% 5% 25% 62% 13% Finland 96 38% 50% 12% The case of Ireland is a very interesting example as there has been during last decade a strong commitment to increase the education in Science and Technology, jumping the previous rate of candidates to more than 50%. (information received from the F. Kauppinen, European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions, Dublin, 2001, March). This Table shows the obvious strong deficit of Health and a small one in Sciences and Technology if compared to Finland and Ireland (Recently, Ireland has increased significantly the 30% share). Unfortunately, present trends are not very favourable: - - the renewal of active population is around 2% per year and the number of annual graduates is around 20000. Therefore, even if the rate of graduation for present cohort reaches 60%, this means that the percentage of active population with this level will be around 18% on still below present average for OECD. Increasing that graduation rate would imply a significant reduction of present drop out which is quite high (40% - 50%) but this rate seems rather stable. The percentage of students choosing Science or Technology in Secondary Education is decreasing: 63% 52% from 1990 to 1997. Summing up, it seems that: - - Higher Education has a rather low level of efficiency due to high dropping-out and retention levels. This means that Portugal will not reach the average level of qualification of OECD – 1996 on the target year of 2020, unless radical changes will be pursued. There is a growing scarcity of graduates in Engineering and Technology, particularly for the intermediate level (B Sc or certificate level) This scarcity will spread over most Engineering and Technology areas but it is already quite high for domains like Computers, Systems, Communication, Multimedia, Environmental, Services, Infra-structures (Civil Engineering) 2.5.2 Research and Development (RD) RD effort of the portuguese State has increased significantly during last years: Table 2.8 Public RD as % of GDP 1988 Portugal 0.29% Spain 0.42% Finland 0.75% Netherlands 0.94% Ireland 0.36% 1997 0.54% 0.50% 1.16% 0.76% 0.32% becoming higher than in other countries like Ireland or Spain. 22 However, private RD is still very low (about 22% of total) compared to the others: 69% (Ireland), 47% (Spain) and average EU 64%. p where p is the public RD (also as % of 1 f GDP) and f the fraction due to private RD. Thus, one has q = 2.8 p for average EU but for Portugal just q = 1.25p, obtaining q 0.7%, quite below the target of 1% often praised by politicians. Obviously, the total RD effort (as % of GDP), q, is given by q The distribution of RD per subject areas was studied by Contzen (Contzen, 2000): Portugal E.U Ireland Table 2.9 Distribution of RD per subject areas Agro-Sciences Humanities Technologies 13% 20% 14% 4% 13% 20% 21% 14% 39% Others 53% 63% 36% showing that technologies deserve in Portugal much less attention. The number of scholarships to support PhD students had a very positive growth but those for MSc have been reduced (OCT, 1999) Scholarships PhD MSc Table 2.10 Distribution of scholarships 1994 520 776 1998 677 186 The distribution of PhDs per subjects has been lead by students’ choice (Bonfim, 2000): Table 2.11 Distribution of scholarships per domain Subject Electrical and Computer Engineering Chemistry Civil Engineering Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology Mechanical Engineering Materials % 27 25 15 13 13 7 and the area of Information and Communication Technologies is quite below reasonable levels. Unfortunately, around 95% of PhDs stay at the university system and the example of Chemical Engineering can be quoted: between 70 and 97, 290 PhDs were produced but just about 20 or 25 PhDs were found in industry. Other indicators can be used but the following conclusions seem quite obvious: - the strong public effort during last decade has developed a basic public RD infrastructure, although more oriented for Sciences than for Technologies. Most of public RD effort has been allocated in terms of demand without considering specific policy priorities; Most of the existing public RD system is based on traditional classification of subjects and it is not oriented to support the new RD paradigm: the so-called “Mode 2 research” (Gibbons et al, 1994). 23 - New challenges will require substantial changes, namely: - Higher Education cannot go on absorbing more than 90% of new PhDs; The EU contribution to our RD effort is quite substantial but it will be much smaller after 2006; Setting up priorities and major options for our Science and Technology policy should be not delayed; RD effort in Defence should be increased developing synergies with other civilian areas making a better use of compensation policies for important procurement decisions; - The urgent development of private RD requires not just priorities but a new “problem oriented” approach supporting networks and innovative programs. EU is also moving in this direction through the “Key Actions” approach and the new ERA (European Research Area). 2.6 PORTUGAL BENCHMARKING This diagnostic analysis would be incomplete if Portugal (PT) is not compared with other reference countries. The usual approach of comparing Portugal with EU average seems less attractive as this is a sliding reference. Thus, four other European countries were selected: - Spain (SP): the most important neighbour experiencing significant development Ireland (IR): a peripheral european country belonging to the first priority within the Community Support framework and achieving substantial economic success. Finland (FL): a very peripheral country having succeeded to overcome economic troubles after the end of Soviet Union. Netherlands (NL): small country with a very aggressive economy giving a high priority to human capital and technology. The following benchmarking was estimated for the end of nineties: Fig. 2.10 Expected life and birth rate (years) Population and Health 80 79 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 71 70 SP NL IR PT 9 10 11 FL 12 13 14 (nº births/103 hab.) 24 Fig. 2.11 Tuberculosis and HIV Tuberculosis (n.º of cases / 105 inhab.) Population and Health 60 PT 50 40 30 20 FL NL 10 IR SP 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Nº HIV new infected cases/ year Fig. 2.12 GDP growth and employment Economy Average annual growth rate of employment (88 - 98) 4 IR 3 NL 2 SP 1 PT 0 0 -1 2 4 6 8 FL -2 Average annual growth rate of GDP (88-98) Fig. 2.13 GDP/inhab. as % of US level Economy NL 80 IR 70 FL SP 60 PT 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Competitiveness indicatir (according to IMD 2000, considering 47 countries starting with the worst one) 25 Fig. 2.14 Participation Rate and Educational Achievement Participation Rate (Higher Ed.) for 18-21 years (1996) Knowledge 35 IR 30 ES PB 25 PT 20 FL 15 10 5 0 0 20 40 60 80 % of population (15-64 years) with level >=3 (1996) Fig. 2.15 Study of English and Mathematics Score achieved in International Mathematics Test (TIMS, 13 years, 1995) Knowledge 550 NL 540 * IR 530 520 510 FL 500 SP 490 480 470 PT 460 450 440 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 % of students studying english in Basic/Secondary Education * In this case, the foreign language is French Fig. 2.16 RD Structure Knowledge 80 IR Private % of RD 70 ES 60 PB 50 FL 40 30 PT 20 10 0 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 RD as % of GDP 26 Fig. 2.17 Patents and Publications N.º of scientific publications / 105 hab. Knowledge 140 FL NL 120 100 80 60 SP IR 40 20 PT 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Annual nº of patent request / 105 hab. Fig. 2.18 Computers and E-Business Nº of servers with security protection for E5 Business/10 hab. Knowledge IR 1,8 FL 1,6 1,4 1,2 NL 1 SP 0,8 0,6 PT 0,4 0,2 0 0 2 4 6 8 Expenditure in Information and Communication Technologies (as % of GDP) Fig. 2.19 Internet and Mobile Phones Nº of internet services / 1000 inha. Knowledge 120 FL 100 80 60 NL 40 IR 20 SP PT 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 N.º mobile phones / 100 inhab. 27 Fig. 2.20 Investment on Technology and Infra-Structures (according to Schwab et al, 1999) Knowledge 100 90 Tecnology 80 70 60 FL IR 50 NL 40 SP 30 PT 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Infra-Structure Fig. 2.21 COx and NOx Environment 140 ES Cox kg/inhab. 120 PT IR 100 FL 80 PB 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Nox (kg/inhab.) Fig. 2.22 Regional Development % Population in Regions (A+B) 100 FL NL 90 80 70 60 50 40 SP 30 IR 20 10 PT 0 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 Nº of Regions (A+B)* / Total of Regions * according to the classification by the European Commission, 1998. 28 All these analysis and the study of recent trends of these indicators can be synthetized by the following graph displaying the areas where Portugal has achieved stronger advances but also those with an weaker position: Higher Advance Improvement Stagnation Expected life Communications Income per capita Participation Rate and public RD Qualification of Active Population Productivity Pollution impact of economic activity Educational achievements Competitiveness and technological effort (Private RD and exports of High-Tec industries) Economic use of new technologies (E-Business, etc) Weaker situation 29 3. Which Future Scenarios? “Men to to-day, to-morrow’s dust when years have past where shall ye go? What vulgar daub or hurried lust Shall chronicle your joy and woe? Wave on the crest of life’s swift sea After to-day who’ll think of ye?” Fernando Pessoa, 1904 30 3 3.1 WHICH FUTURE SCENARIOS? EUROPE The fast development of Portugal during last decades is strongly linked to the process of integration in the European Union and therefore debating future scenarios for Portugal leads us inevitably to discuss the future of Europe. And Europe is in a process of fast change, too. During last decade, the treaties of Maastricht and of Amsterdam have consolidated our common european institutions and it seems that the depth achieved along multiple societal dimension can be represented as follows: Social Dimension (Social support, Labour mobility, Social exclusion) Knowledge and Environment Dimensions (Education, Training, RD, Environment) Political Dimension (Foreign policy, Defence, Citizenship) Commercial Dimension (Internal Market) Development Dimension (Sectoral and Regional Disparities, CSF) Fig. 3.1 The domain of Research and Technological Development (RDI) has become a competence of the Union by the Single Act (1987) and acquired higher importance by the Maastrich Treaty (1993). The challenges faced by Europe and announced by J.J. Schreiber through his famous “Le Défit American” thirty years ago are more real than ever. Therefore, a main question is what are the major dimensions of change for the European Union during coming decades? ET 2000 formulates these dimensions into 9 perspectives. A – Demography and Environment European population is becoming older and by 2025 the age group 65 years will include 85 Million inhabitants, about 22% of the population against 15.4% (in 1995). The demographic evolution for Portugal is similar with 20% in 2016 against 14% in 1991. These forecasts can be significantly changed by specific immigration policies, probably associated to overcoming shortage of professional profiles. This is well illustrated by the recent announcement by the chancellor of Germany to start a massive import of computers’ technologists. European environment has been under growing pressure during the last decades and this trend cannot be kept. The increase of pollution emissions (NOx, SO2, NH4 and volatile organic products), the need to take care of adequate and of waste treatment systems, the decontamination of soils, the reduction of greenhouse factors 31 (Kyoto agreement) will require a change of EU policies and huge investments higher than 3% of the european annual GDP. B –Enlargement of EU After the Helsinki Council (Dec 99) the list of state candidates includes Bulgaria, Cyprus, Check Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania ,Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia and Turkey (European Commission, 1999a). The treaty of Nice signed up early 2001 confirms the commitment to enlarge EU, including the majority of candidates in a near future. However, the disparities of private consumption per capita are quite significant as it is shown in Fig. 3.2 (in European Commission, 1999 b). Private Consumption per capita (in PPP, US dol 1987) Fig. 3.2 The EU experience of developing measures to strength internal cohesion following the inspired concept of Structural Funds proposed by J. Delors has achieved reasonable success but it seems that the rate of real convergence is slowing down: the convergence of GDP for the richest and poorest regions in EU has grown at an annual rate of 2% during seventies, 1.3% during eighties and probably less during last decade (European Commission, 1998). However, the degree of success is not uniform ranging from quite accomplished cases as Ireland to stagnating examples in some regions of Southern Italy or Greece. The enlargement will create new pressures for innovative and powerful instruments demanding a significant increase of the cohesion budget. C – Decisional Structure The decisional structure of EU has to be adapted to its new composition and dimension. The Treaty of Nice is a clear expression of this change but the degree of cohesion achieved by the new decisional systems is still uncertain. 32 D – Global Competitiveness The growing liberalization of the world trade, namely after the Seattle Conference of WTO, last year, will require new policies in Europe which will be difficult to implement with a large fraction of the national income allocated to the State (in Portugal, this percentage is already around 50%). Within EU, the acceptance of new members (outside Euro region) will attract for these new regions low-salary industries and more traditional activities. Therefore, countries at an intermediate level of development as it is the case of Portugal have to speed up their commitment to focus on more advanced services and industries E – Internal Tensions and Conflicts Previsions analysis suggest a more vast and heterogeneous Europe (Europe – Mosaic) close to the sustainability limits and with multiple local tension nodes. The ability to cope with these new problems will be a crucial factor for the success of EU. Major scenarios for EU can be drawn up in terms of two basic lines: a) Cohesion or Fragmentation b) Competition or Social Protection The resulting 4 cases are presented in Fig. 3.3 Competitiveness Competition III I Social Protection IV II Fragmentation Cohesion Cohesion Fig. 3.3 These four scenarios will shape our future and also the role of Engineering and Technology (ET) to improve sustainable development. Demand for ET will be higher with cohesion and the clients will be more connected to public authorities (“public markets”) or to wider and private markets if the trends emphasize more competition or more social protection, respectively. 3.2 TECHNOLOGICAL FUTURE Several institutions are looking for the scientific and technologic areas of knowledge that seem more promising in coming years. The Institute Battelle (USA) has selected seven key topics: BQG – New engineering solutions based on Biochemistry and Genetics to develop new tools for Health, Food and Environment (genetic treatments and functional food) NMAT – New material, with innovative properties (joint elements, memory, ultra-light materials, concrete with carbon fibbers, etc) ENP – New powerful and small sources of power (new generation of batteries) 33 INF – New information and communication systems distributing computational power by common commodities and networks (home systems, transportation controls, E-urban areas, etc.) TRA – New cableless transmission systems (infra-red for industries, etc) and superconductors working at room temperature ERT – New integrated systems for environmental control and natural resources management (Sewage treatment systems, water purification, industrial ecology, etc.) NAN - Nanomachines (molecular tools) The duration of the innovation cycles associated to these new achievements will condition strongly the technological “landscape” of the next two decades. 3.3 THE PORTUGUESE SOCIETY The process of change of the portuguese society is particularly important for the development of Engineering and Technology (E&T) and 4 major perspectives were considered in terms of key societal paradigms: + Paradigm of Civil Society + Paradigm of Change + Paradigm of International Openness + Paradigm of Sustainability Each perspective has a pole favouring E&T contribution to society and an anti-pole as it is represented in next figure: Favourable Directions to integrate E&T in Portuguese Society Civil Society Initiative State Dominance Prone to Change Against Change International Openness International Closeness Sustainability Volatility Four Major Societal Perspectives Fig. 3.4 The first direction is essential to develop innovation and dynamic business networks requiring more E&T knowledge but the second one is no less important as the future challenges require flexible and fast processes of adaptation and evolution. Portugal is a small country and international links are a source of opportunities and also a way of avoiding national limitations. The last issue concerns sustainability and all work done at ET 2000 has emphasized clearly the importance of integrating this paradigm in modern E&T in order that this key objective will be tackled by E&T and also because of the new markets to be supplied. 34 Two alternative evolutions have been drawn and of course I will be much more favorable than II (Fig. 3.5). Civil Society Initiative Prone to Change International Openness Sustainability Scenario I Scenario II State Dominance Against Change Existing situation International Closeness Volatility Scenario Scenarios for Portugal Fig. 3.5 Scenario I requires a strong effort to transfer to civil society a good deal of power and resources managed by the State (First Paradigm) and this radical burst will have strong impacts on other dimensions. The author has no doubts on the vital importance about these societal scenarios to shape the future of our country and the use of E&T to boost competitiveness and development. 3.4 STUDIED SECTORS 3.4.1 Building Materials This sector includes a very diversified spectrum of industries belonging to different groups: Ceramics, (including stones, glasses, cement, concrete), Polymers (wood, cork, plastics, bitumen, paints and varnishes, glues), Metals (steel, cast iron, aluminium, ironwork, taps) and other materials (precasted cement products, etc). This sector is responding to the growth of housing and infra-structures construction but its technological level is quite heterogeneous: Skills and qualification Sub-sectors such as those of stones or traditional ceramics have much lower levels than others like those of dyes and glues. International Openness and Competitiveness Several products are heavily exported like stones and cork but imports are growing in other sub-sectors, such as furniture or even ceramics, showing a lower competitiveness of our industry compared to other countries like France, Italy or even Spain. This sector is also quite fragmented including many “worlds” with different culture and associations based on affinities of raw materials and production processes but less oriented to promote synergies to develop integrated final products and marketing strategies. 35 The foresight analysis recommends the following strategies: - priority to increase competitiveness within EU development of product innovation integrating contributions from sub-sectors: from a “materials” culture towards a “building solution” approach improvement of design and quality standards. This requires intensive training and new qualification structures and centres reorientation of professional and business associations to stimulate new product and marketing cultures. 3.4.2 Construction This is a major sector of portuguese economy accounting for about 7% of our GNP and a high multiplier effects as it is estimated than each unit of revenue of this sector generates another 0.75 of revenues in other sectors. Unfortunately, the level of qualification of most workforces is rather low and its actual size is undetermined as it includes a significant number of illegal immigrants. The following strategies can be recommended from the developed analysis: - increasing the market segmentation for products and services; complementing major products with related services; achieving a significant increase of quality should be assessed by the final client rather than by the producers themselves; hence, clients’ surveys and quality panels should be generalized, which is also a requirement of the new standards for quality control; developing an integrated strategy to improve qualification and productivity not just in terms of technological solutions but also using other contributions from Psychology and Industrial Sociology; supporting joint international developments associated to portuguese investment abroad (Environment, Telecommunications, etc); promoting new markets like rehabilitation of housing and of structures; stimulating product and process innovation; contributing to the identity and dynamics of real estate sector; 3.4.3 Environment This sector includes an wide variety is sub-systems such as water, soil, ecosystems, waste, urban environment and noise. These sub-sectors require a long list of skills and problem areas to be studied such as coastal or estuarine protection, water supply and treatment, water or waste recycling, air quality control, emission reduction, biodiversity and natural areas conservation, urban planning, green areas and urban equipment, noise monitoring and control. Several strategies were proposed: - priority to the training of middle level technologists and specialized experts; development of management information systems to monitor environmental systems promotion of innovation, stimulating new clusters of SMEs developing synergies with other technologies such as ICT, GIS, etc. partnerships between the State and private sector to coordinate the regional development of better solutions without disturbing the development of nature markets strong investment in specific “niches” to achieve international competitiveness and to develop synergies with portuguese investment in foreign countries 3.4.4 Energy Portugal has a low final energy consumption per inhabitant ( 2 toes, tones of oil equivalent, 1996) against an European average of 3.8. Our country has no oil or gas but hydroelectricity is a valuable resources and other sources like wind can have a significant development in the future. Natural gas and mini-hydropower stations are improving our national balance. 36 Three major strategic objectives should be considered: I – Reduction of foreign dependency, increasing security and reliability II – Increasing sectoral competitiveness III – Improving environmental standards and fulfilling Kyoto objectives. Several areas of development have to be pursued to achieve these objectives: a) b) c) d) e) management of resources, I, III rational use of energy, I, II, III efficiency of the energy systems, I competition and regulation, II pollution emission, III The following guidelines can be suggested: - Promotion of a culture of competition and regulation Development of technological education and training for the most relevant areas Promotion of a culture of energy conservation, namely for designers and managers Monitoring prices and differentiating those technologies avoiding externalities related to pollution effects (water, wind, etc). Promoting of RD oriented to increase the efficiency of energy use Promotion of co-generation and other clean technologies Supporting the use of natural gas in specific industries Supporting SMEs for better energy options Promotion of better energy options for large national projects 3.4.5 Food and Beverages This sector accounts for about 3% of the total value of national industrial output and it is quite important not just because this sector fulfils essential needs but also because it is rather stable across highs and lows of economic cycles. The following groups of products have to be considered: - groceries dairy products frozen food canned hot beverages biscuits and sweets “charcuteries” Four major strategies are proposed: a) focusing products with a higher growth rate such as functional products and pre-prepared food b) promotion of products innovation as a key condition for success through partnerships between universities and corporations c) developing horizontal and vertical integration of firms within the main processes of internationalisation d) improvement of supply chains and other logistic conditions developing partnerships with agricultural production 3.4.6 Electronics The production of this sector corresponds to about 3.5% of GDP on 1998, employing 1% of the active population. Major sub-sectors include machinery and industrial equipment, wires and cables, measuring equipment, automation and control, telecommunication computers, electronic components, batteries, lamps and other equipment, consumer electronics. 37 Most of the recent portuguese development was based on cables, electronic components and consumer electronics using low qualified labour and suffering the challenge of other regions with lower salaries. Several strategies should be pursued: - transfer of technological know-how to improve our knowledge bases; increase of applied RD; searching for new market “niches” with promising trends in international markets; acquisitions or mergers increasing competitiveness; modernization of production processes; clustering of technological SMEs; Stimulation of innovation. 3.4.7 Metal and Plastic Production This is a main component of portuguese industry accounting for ¼ of its firms and generating 15% of its GAV (about 18% of total industrial employment). This sector includes basic metallurgy, metal products, machinery and non-electric equipment, transportation equipment. Unfortunately, the qualification level is low and competitiveness is limited. The following strategies are suggested: - Focusing four critical issues: environment, quality, security and maintenance Globalization and “crashing” supply chains Improving intangible factors for competitiveness such as innovation design, flexibility and post-sale services Priority to the training of technologist in the areas of measurement, digital operation and control. 3.4.8 Automobile Industry This industry has grown recently through the development of the new VW factory, Auto Europa, and has increased the total sales from 85 x 109 to 736 x 109 PTEs (1986 1998). This last development had a very strong and positive impact on a large “palette” of industries due to a very well structured process of procurement. The evaluation of sales is presented in the following graph. Fig. 3.6 Facturação por Grupos de Actividade (milhões de contos) Interiors 250 Electric Components 200 Engines 150 Structure 100 Buses 50 Pneumatics 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Others (moulds, tools, etc.) 38 Major recommendations are: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Development of new assembly lines. Attracting another OEM (“Original Equipment Manufacturer”) can have a very positive effect Capturing “systems integration” to have new development centres in Portugal (such as Delphi) Promotion of a culture of “product engineering” increasing RD and innovation Development of partnerships to achieve vertical integration and scale economies Internationalization of human resources 3.4.9 Textiles and Clothes The sales per employee have been growing (fig. 3.5) but they are below the European average (42% or 30% for textiles and clothes, respectively). 9 8 1 7 3 10 PTE 6 5 2 4 Textil 1 Têxtil Clothes 2 Vestuário Clothes Têxtil and e Vestuário 3 Textil 3 2 1 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 Fig. 3.7 The global liberalization of this sector, since 2005 will have quite significant impacts closing more than 14% of firms and reducing the number of jobs (> 40%). Major suggestions include: - Differentiation through quality rather than price Higher levels of quality, innovation and design Enhancing of E&T reducing the salary factor Mark development and internationalisation RD and cooperation firms-universities 3.4.10 Shoes The shoe industry is based on SMEs network with advanced know-how. GAV was about 142 x 109 PTE in 1998 and several innovation programmes are being carried out: - Virtual Network (E-Business) Green Shoe SHOEMAT (new materials and recycling) FATEC (Computer Integrated Manufacturing) Fashion and Design Technological advances will be based on: - CAD / CAE / CAM 39 - Management and Logistic Systems Automation E-Business Telework Recommendations include: - Incentives to pursue policies of innovation and internationalisation RD and cooperation firms-universities Higher competitiveness through design, quality, environment and energy management, marketing and security Clustering and training 3.4.11 Chemical Industry The Chemical Industry includes the following sectors: inorganic products (industrial gases, bases, chlorine, sulphuric acid, phosphoric acid, ammonia, hydrogen peroxide, soluble silicates, oxides and explosives); organic products (basic organic chemicals, intermediary products and organic derivatives); Fertilizers, agrochemicals and protection agents; synthetic resins and plastics; artificial as well as synthetic fibbers; elastomers and rubber manufactured products; pharmaceutical industry; rosin derivatives; paints and varnishes, surface active agents, soaps and detergents; glues, adhesives and sealants; essential oils, perfumes and cosmetics, oils and fats for non-food application; diverse chemical production, crude refining, pulp and paper industry, environmental related industries, food industry, glass industry, ceramic industry. Chemical Industry generates a GAV of 109 x 109 PTE and employs around 27200 people (1998). Investment exceeds 40 x 109 PTE. Chemical products are consumed by several sectors as it is shown in Fig. 3.8 Estrutura do consumo da Indústria Química na UE Final Consumption Consumo Final Serviços Services Agricultura Agriculture 8% 8% 28% 5% 4% 15% 5% 9% 18% Construção Construction Outros Others Papel Paper Automóvel Automobile Têxtil e Vestuário Textiles and Clothes mecânica Metais, Engenharia e eléctrica Metals. Mechanical and Electrical Engines Chemical Industry Fig. 3.8 This industry is capital RD intensive and includes 3 major clusters: - Forest / paper’s pulp / cellulose products Chemical specialities, Biotechnology and Pharmaceutical Industry Strategic areas for priority developments: - Catalysis Process and Reactions’ Engineering Integration and optimisation of Industrial processes Recycling and reprocessing of effluents and sub products Bio technologic processes 40 - Separation processes New opportunities are being offered by the new accesses to areas of Matosinhos – Aveiro, Sines – Lisbon. 3.4.12 Transportation This sector was subdivided into: rail, road, water and air. On 1998, about 3.7% of the active population was working in this sector accounting for 3.4% of GDP. Final consumption of energy was about 32.7% of the total. Technological advances are requiring more standard solutions and much more sophisticated tools to manage and to operate transportation and interface systems. Globalization of markets for transportation equipment is advancing rapidly and extending also to controlling and security systems. Priority should be given to the development of national advanced know-how in areas where Portugal can achieve high competitive levels. Major opportunities are: - Management Information Systems to provide flexible adjustment between demand and supply (B2C – Business to Consumer) Optimization of coordination between suppliers (B2B – Business to Business) Optimization of multimodal paths for freight transportation subdivided into manageable packages (B2C with special interactive control) Optimization of calendar and mode selection (B2B) Safety increase systems Development of innovation programs connected to important technological procurement carried out by major operators Participation in international consortia to develop advanced networking and know-how Development of innovative added value services to improve final value offered to the consumer 3.4.13 Telecommunications This is a fast growing sector including networks (public, cable, private and fixed access by radio), services (fixed and mobile phones, data, internet, closed domain voice communication and satellites), audio text and radio communication. The market for fixed phones is stable but mobile phones and cables had a fast growth. Major technological advances will have a strong impact: - - Wireless local access Cellular local access Satellite communication Voice and data (possibly, video) through electrical network Wireless cable (as a local satellite providing wide band services to a restricted area) Asymmetric digital subscriber line (technology using traditional pairs of copper cables of existing phones lines to provide 8.5 M bits/s downstream and 64 –640 kbits/s upstream allowing asymmetric service like internet and video-on-demand) GSM – phase 2 (to achieve levels of 768 Kbits/s) Universal Mobile Telecommunications Systems (UMTS) to provide wide band mobile communication until 2 Mbits/s, global roaming, etc.) Web TV platforms (Internet through TV using a set-top box) Cable Modems (high speed communications for clients of cable TVs achieving) Voice and fax over internet protocol HSCD – High speed circuit – switched data service (mobile phones until 56 Kbits/s) 41 - Frame-relay (for E-mail of corporations using heavy attachments) ISDN Major trends are: - Private or mobile voice operators will be licensed for fixed networks Internet providers will sell other services (data, TV, etc) Progressive internationalization of major players The following strategies are suggested: - Structuring market competition avoiding oligopolies or undesirable externalities Promotion of partnerships between major players to achieve critical mass for technological procurement, innovation and applied RD To stimulate the development of intermediate and advanced training through specialization and postgraduation initiatives envolving corporation and higher education institutions (this sector may be a good example to develop a Corporate University) 3.4.14 Information Technologies On 1998, the sales of this sector were area 230 x 109 PTE (about 1.2% of GDP) envolving 12 000 people and 2 000 firms. Nowadays, hardware accounts for just 45% instead of 80%, ten years ago. Services increased exponentially jumping from 4% on 1990 to around 30% and software followed this trend. Critical knowledge areas include: - management of local and global networks software for integration of wideband systems with internet and UMTS tools based on Operational Research, Expert Systems, Neural Nets and Artificial Intelligence to support and to develop decision and knowledge bases international and technological procurement and marketing skills Major trends can be identified: - Progressive integration of computers and communication networks Development of software on the web to search for information useful for decision making on real time Progressive use of datamining tools and Customer Relationship Management (CRM) to create and to develop new businesses Generalization of operating systems and applications for LAN and WAN networks Voice and character identification and new voice-based operating systems Progressive interconnection between media, contents, communication and computers industries Driving needs coming from B2B B2C Progressive integration of chips in any common products with smaller dimension and higher performance Flexible integration of robots and man-machine intelligent systems for industrial and non-industrial domain (home, environment, etc) Critical scarcity of qualified human resources The following guidelines can be proposed: - Public policies should be oriented to stimulate demand (public administration, etc) rather than disturbing supply Supply support should be restricted to critical cases fighting against regional disparities or social exclusion (special groups, handicapped people, etc) Our firms should innovative through the use of advanced integration and interface systems as well as communication and management information systems Priority should be given to markets based on the portuguese language. 42 3.4.15 Geographical Information Systems (GIS) On 1998, the Gross Added Value of GIS was around 139 x 10 9 PTEs and there has been a rapid expansion of GIS in Engineering, Municipal and Environmental domains. GIS can be a powerful infra-structure for the competitiveness of our economic activities, from Agriculture or Forest to Real Estate or Industry. Four types of GIS firms can be identified: agents of foreign software, consulting services, producers of GIS and heavy users of GIS (engineering firms, public utilities, etc). Several programs can be suggested such as: - Support to clusters of portuguese SMEs to reach “global niches” through risk capital and a favourable framework Promotion of partnerships and consortia, namely based on the iberic market Priority to non-tangible assets and training RD programs including firms and Higher Education institutions Modernization of public demonstration Major suggestions are: - consolidating national infra-structure of geographical information promotion of GIS for central and local administration completion of data bases with the axes of roads qualification of human resources RD programs with Higher Education, Administration and Firms Production and free-access concerning all relevant “public domain” information 3.4.16 Financial Services There are significant changes in our financial sector: deregulation, competition, investment on human resources and on Information and Communication Technologies. In this last area, four stages can be identified: “systems centric” (64 81); “PC centric” (81 94); “network centric” (94 05) and, hopefully, in the future, “contents centric (05 20) Major Scenarios include: I. Sectoral consolidation achieving european scale II. Sectoral decomposition an higher role to be played by intermediate services, information providers, dealers, etc. III. Mixed scenario a composition of I and II Strategies for the future should consider the following lines: Enhancing the technological potential of Telecommunications, Computers, Software, Systems’ Engineering and Operational Research, Financial Products Development, International Management; Integration of multiple channels into the banking value chain; Migration to lower cost channels; Improvement of the operations’ scope; Better use of infrastructures Redesign of CRM and cooperation with non-competitive actors with comparative advantages for “network centric” and “content centric models”. 43 3.4.17 Engineering Services This sector includes more than 200 firms ( 5 employees) and a large number of liberal professionals. The estimated GAV is about 50 x 109 PTE for firm ( 5 employees) and 20 x 109 PTE due to other activities (total 70 x 109 PTEs). About 20 x 109 PTE are due to project monitoring and control. Major products include planning and design, project management, procurement, management and control, training and organization. These outputs are distributed over more traditional sectors like housing and public works and also multiple domains like industry, environment, leisure, etc. New markets are blossoming such as environmental studies for golf fields, soundproof designs for multimedia activities, security systems, rehabilitation, urban equipment and landscape, integration of communication networks. The productivity (annual GAV / worker 14 x 106 PTE) seems about 20 or 30% below international competitors but a very advanced level of engineering know-how reputation explains a net surplus of our national balance for this sector. New trends can be identified: - progressive liberalization of services, making using of E-Business to fulfill local needs by global providers higher integration of European public markets increasing importance being given to the quality requirements and options preferences judged by the final clients rather than by the suppliers wider variety of technologies to be integrated in most Engineering Services increasing integration of Engineering Services with project finance and systems management Major strategic considerations about the future include the following perspectives: - Engineering Services will have an higher added value if integrating Information and Communication Technologies as well as Systems Engineering with other disciplines Social and economic development requires new Engineering Services where planning and assessment studies will be quite important Project revision, management and control will require stronger contributions from Engineering Monitoring and technical assistance concerning projects and works of public administration are a growing market The need to balance specialization and multidisciplinarity suggests new partnerships or fusions between firms to increase their level of competitiveness Successful strategies to compete in international markets will require new cooperative and specialization models. 44 4. Strategies and Policies “Genius alone can rouse the fire That in your glorious nature lies” Fernando Pessoa, 1904 45 4 4.1 STRATEGIES AND POLICIES ENVIRONMENT AND INNOVATION Although pollution indicators for Portugal tend to be lower than for other European countries due to the smaller industrial output, three perspectives deserve special concern: - pollution control has been focusing “end of the chain” treatments with negative environmental impacts (e.g., co-incineration, waste landfills, etc) low efficient use of energy increasing greenhouse effect agricultural production too much based on chemical products Therefore, several strategic lines should be pursued: - - implementation of the industrial ecology approach, considering the whole product cycle and a new environmental solutions right from the initial stage of industrial product conception; the increase use of natural gas and wind energy can improve significantly present situation. New technological advances such as hydrogen energy cells may reduce the high pollution effect of cars and trucks before 2020; The organization of services to provide efficiency solutions (for instance, treatment of fields for agricultural production instead of the conventional sales of fertilizers) can change objective functions for such providers, attempting to achieve economic solutions instead of the maximization of product sales. These new strategies illustrate the need to develop a society frame to conceive and to implement innovation. This requires stability and continuity of policies to provide a stable framework for market economy forces but also new policies to integrate the support to the growth of human capital and to the generation of innovation as an integrated cycle (conception, assessment, risk capital, development and marketing). These new policies have to contribute not just to the appropriate physical infra-structuring but also to a legal and commercial framework favouring flexible, fast and non-bureaucratic procedures. 4.2 COMPETITIVENESS AND KNOWLEDGE The concept of competitiveness has a central importance within ET 2000 and it has been a main source of concern during the discussion held by the panels. The traditional definition applies to firms showing stable and profitable performances but recently it has been extended to regions or countries where “clusters of local firms” are considered as engines of competitiveness (Porter, 1990). The measurement of competitiveness has been studied beyond the usual balance revenues – expenses through parametric models assessing the total value of outputs in terms of the best available experiences for a similar level of inputs (Oral, 1993): j j j j * where is the achieved level of efficiency and j weight for output j j or *j level of output j for existing system or for the most efficient system, respectively. Data Envelopment Analysis – DEA (see, e.g., Charnes and Cooper, 1978, Sexton, 1986) and non-linear optimisation methods (Tavares and Correia, 1999 and Antunes and Tavares, 2000) have been used to apply and to generalize this formulation. Stronger criticisms have been raised to the application of the concept of competitiveness to regions or countries (Krugman, 1994b) and the Porter’s assumption that clusters of “local firms” are the key for success in the competitiveness battle has been hardly proved in many regions where multinational corporations play a no less important role. 46 According to the general approach of ET2000, competitiveness is an useful concept to formulate the balance between the value given by markets to our goods or services and the cost of all required inputs Major policies to improve this balance can rely on: - product segmentation and innovation search for markets giving better appreciation to out products improvement of the supply chain to reduce inputs cost reengineering and streamlining of the production process increasing efficiency, reliability, cost and quality control, time span. Of course, multiple public policies can contribute to a social and economic environment more prone to competitiveness. The pace for a more integrated and competitive economy seems a clear political objective for the European Union, as it was expressed by the Lisbon Council, but criticisms have been raised about the lack of reforms by European Governments (European Round Table of Industrialists, Financial Times, 20Mar, 01). The comparative analysis of national structural policies to boost competitiveness (structural reforms) has been studied by independent institutions but Portugal fails to get a good relative score. - Knowledge Knowledge is the main source of economic growth (according to IPTS, more than 70% can be explained by creation and by a better use of knowledge, European Commission, 1999a) and the European Union has strong as well as weak areas of compared to US and Japan Strong and Weak Areas for EU Strong Areas Software Mobile phones Sensors Consumer electronics Digital TV Pharmaceutics Energy Waste recycling Telematics Weak Areas Visual Interfaces Chips Automation Biotechnology Photovoltaic systems Batteries New ceramic materials Multiple indicators have been proposed to describe human capital but it seems they tend to be strongly correlated with: a) Percentage of population (20-64 years) having completed upper secondary education, at least (Tavares, 1994 and 1995) In fig. 4.2 the comparison of Portugal with other OECD countries is presented. b) Number of scientific and technologic publications per capita (Data Bases (Compumath” and “Science Citation Index”) and number of patents per capita. The European Commission (European Commission, 1998) has classified EU regions in terms of GDP / capita, nº of patents / capita and nº of scientific publications / capita. 47 Distribution of Regions per type A, B, C, D in UE Fig. 4.1 European States: 0 – Switzerland; 1 – Estonia; 2 – Latvia; 3 – Lithuania; 4 – Poland; 5 – Czech Republic; 6 – Slovak Republic; 7 – Hungary; 8 – Romania; 9 – Moldavia; 10 – Bulgaria; 11 – Slovenia; 12 – Croatia; 13 – Bosnia; 14 – Servia; 15 – Albania; 16 – Macedonian; 17 – [Montenegro]; 18 – Bielorussian; 19 – Ukraine; 20 – Turkey; 21 – Cyprus ; 22 – Norway obtaining the following results Type of Region A B C D UE GDP/cap Table 4.1 Number of Regions Patents/cap Publ./cap N.º of Regions 132 99 82 63 100 208 96 28 2 100 205 91 29 24 100 68 140 165 72 100 48 State France Germany United Kingdom Italy Netherlands Spain Belgium Luxembourg Denmark Greece Portugal Ireland Austria Sweden Finland Total A 13 16 13 11 4 0 2 0 4 0 0 0 3 1 1 68 B 27 14 36 25 6 3 6 1 7 0 0 1 4 6 4 140 Table 4.2 C 54 7 16 41 2 24 3 0 4 2 1 7 2 1 1 165 D 3 1 0 26 0 25 0 0 0 11 6 0 0 0 0 72 Total 97 38 65 103 12 52 11 1 15 13 7 8 9 8 6 445 This comparison shows not just Portugal situation but also that knowledge disparities are much higher than economic ones as the ratio between advanced and depressed regions is equal to 132/63; 208/2; 205/24 for GDP, patents and publications, respectively. This analysis supports the strategic goal of developing more regions of type B and C for Portugal during next decades. 4.3 KNOWLEDGE AND COMPETITIVENESS FOR THE 17 STUDIED SECTORS According to ET 2000 methodology, a detailed analysis was carried out for each sector with the purpose of: - - identifying major “products”. This is a non trivial analysis and such taxonomy for each sector was found a very useful analytical too. Commercialization and Marketing was added up to each list as deserves special attention in modern business. estimating the impact matrix expressing how much relevant is each area of knowledge to each product. The adopted scores were: 0 – No impact 1 – Small impact 2 – High impact 3 – Very High Impact These matrices were estimated, through panels’ discussions and surveys. The synthetic results are presented in the following table using the following notation: Areas Sectors Process Technologies (PR) Building Materials (BM) Biotechnology (BT) Construction (CT) Materials (MT) Environment (EV) Discrete Production (DP) Energy (EN) Energy (EN) Food Industry (FI) Opto – Electronics (OE) Electronics (EL) Communication and Information Technologies (CIT) Metal and Plastic Products and Manufacturing (MP) Systems Engineering (SE) Automobile Industry (AI) Infra-Structuring and Construction (ISC) Textiles (TX) Environmental Technologies (ET) Shoes Industry (SI) Transportation Technologies (TT) Chemistry (CH), Transportation and Distribution (TD) Telecommunications (TL), Information Technologies (IT) Financial Services (FS) Engineering Services (ES) GIS 49 EV AI SI CT EL EN BM MP FI CH ES FS GIS IT TL TX TD Zi PR BT MT DP EN OE CIT SE ISC ET TT YS(k) DS(k) 2,0 1,9 1,6 1,6 2,1 2,3 1,4 1,8 2,1 2,3 1,5 1,6 1,1 1,0 1,1 2,4 1,5 2,0 1,6 2,1 2,0 2,4 2,0 1,8 1,9 1,6 1,9 1,1 2,0 1,9 1,8 1,6 1,2 1,7 1,9 2,9 1,7 1,8 2,0 2,0 1,9 2,3 1,4 2,0 1,3 1,1 2,2 1,1 2,1 1,4 1,1 1,9 1,5 1,2 2,6 2,1 2,4 2,0 2,6 2,4 2,0 2,2 1,5 2,1 2,8 2,7 2,7 2,1 3,0 3,0 2,7 2,3 1,7 1,1 1,5 1,0 2,2 1,1 1,4 1,3 2,6 2,6 1,6 2,2 2,6 2,5 2,6 2,1 2,4 2,3 2,3 1,8 1,8 2,0 2,6 2,6 2,3 2,7 2,4 1,3 2,3 2,6 2,3 1,0 2,7 2,8 2,5 2,0 2,4 2,3 2,0 1,8 1,6 2,4 1,7 1,8 2,0 1,4 2,6 2,6 2,6 2,3 2,5 2,4 2,6 1,9 1,9 1,8 1,9 2,2 1,9 1,6 2,1 2,3 2,6 2,2 2.0 1,7 1,3 1,7 PR 1,8 BT 0,8 MT DP EN OE CIT SE ISC ET TT 1,5 1,2 1,6 1,6 2,4 2,3 1,3 1,7 1,3 1,6 2,0 1,7 1,8 1,4 1,1 1,3 2,0 2,0 2,3 2,7 2,3 1,9 1,7 1,9 2,2 2,1 1,8 1,9 1,8 2,0 2,0 2,2 1,8 2,2 2,2 1,8 2,1 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,4 0,4 0,5 0,7 0,4 0,2 0,2 0,4 0,5 0,3 0,6 EV AI SI CT EL EN BM MP FI CH ES FS GIS IT TL TX TD and important results are presented in Figs. 4.2 and 4.3. Technological Intensity against Technological Dispersion 1,00 0,90 0,80 CH DS(k) 0,70 EN 0,60 0,30 EL FI 0,50 0,40 EV TD AI TL SI CT ES BM TX IT MP 0,20 GIS FS 0,10 0,00 1,50 1,70 1,90 2,10 2,30 2,50 YS(k) Fig. 4.2 50 0,800% EL 0,700% IT Net Production of Knowledge 0,600% 0,500% CH MP 0,400% ES TECHNOLOGICAL INTENSITY 0,300% HIGH TL LOW 0,200% EV EN 0,100% BM TX TD SI 0,000% -0,01 -0,005 AI FI CON FS 0 0,005 0,01 0,015 0,02 Net Import of Knowledge Technology Intensity Fig. 4.3 Several strategic conclusions can be drawn up: - The contribution of E&T areas for the competitiveness of sector’s activities is clearly presented showing how these areas are important for such development. Of course, other contributions could be foreseen if other clusters of business activities would be launched. This is particularly true for the case of Biotechnology if a cluster of new firms connected to pharmaceuticals or health will start up. - There are three major groups areas in terms of their impact and relevance: Group A : CIT, SE and PR (Zi 1.75) Group B: ET, EN, OE, MT, ISC, TT (1.25 Zi <1.75) Group C: DP, BT (Zi < 1.25) The first group includes nor just well known information and Communication Technologies but also Systems Engineering and Process Engineering quite essential to the reengineering of our firms. The third group includes technologies more oriented to a different type of manufacturing (DP) or to a new cluster of firms not yet existing (BT) - The intensity and dispersion analysis shows the different relative position of sectors: 51 High Dispersion AI CH, EV, EL, EN, TD 0.5 Low SI, CT BM, MP FI, GIS TX ES, FS, IT, TL Average 2.0 High Intensity where - traditional industries and sectors with “easy” technologies (SIG) - High added value services - more complex industries with a high services component (namely, EV and EN) This means that, nowadays, Services are no less technological than Industries but that they are more concentrated on a short “palette” of technologies (not just information and communication technologies). These results can be crossed with the previous sector analysis in terms of net import and production of knowledge: The following strategic conclusions can be drawn up: a) Engineering and Technology should focus on Services as they all come with high technological intensity b) High intensity sectors are spread over three distinct groups: - equilibrium between production and import of knowledge - ES and AMB as main knowledge exporters - EL with much stronger production than import of knowledge - The axe FS TD EN TL CH IT with a growing import of knowledge seems to indicate potential markets for E&T - EL seems to be close to a net exporter if additional effort is allocated to this sector - Just three sectors show an high technological intensity but a very low import and production of knowledge: FS, TD, EN All these results contain specific strategic suggestion to improve the incorporation of E&T in the development of the 17 studied sectors. 4.4 A STRATEGIC VISION FOR ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY IN PORTUGAL 4.4.1 Conditions The previous analysis show that there are two major conditioning factor for the development of E&T in Portugal. Lack of Social Image The national heritage of E&T in Portugal is particularly high and more developed than it could be expected given the size of the country. A clear confirmation is the quite high ability of Engineering Services to export expertise worldwide in very competitive markets. 52 Still, social image of E&T does not represent this high value of knowledge and the promising future of many professional profiles. Media tend to focus E&T if a disaster or a negative impact was generated by a project either on environment or on urban and rural lives. The political power has been emphasizing other areas of competence and young people are not exposed to the world of E&T in Basic and Secondary Education. Mathematics and Physics teaching is a barrier for these vocations and basic technological subjects like Information are not widespread offered even for those selecting E&T. The shortage of human resource is now a critical factor for E&T but it will increase dramatically in a near future. Know – how changes This project has identified a large and prestigious body of national knowledge in E&T but also the types of knowledge with a strongest and a weakest score: Intensity ++ + ++++ +++ ++ ++ + + Knowledge Function Planning and Assessment Procurement Conception and Design Production Integration and Management Maintenance Rehabilitation Operation and Training This analysis helps understanding why those sectors where design or production engineering is more important receive a high contribution from our E&T (CH, EV, EL, EN, ES, FS, IT, TL, TD) but others where procurement, integration and management have a dominant importance are receiving less important contributions. The growing importance of these new types of knowledge is quite obvious and sectors as telecommunications show a fast change of needs from switchboard design, no longer taking place in Portugal, to vast and complex processes of know-how transfer, technologies integration and procurement. 4.4.2 Guidelines Six major strategic lines should be pursued: I – Social Image, Human Resources, Qualification Social image of E&T should be improved emphasizing their essential contribution to development, to environment, to quality of life and to job opportunities during the next two decades. The educational and training systems should be transformed to expose young people to E&T professional opportunities and to develop advanced and specialized know-how at several levels, namely at the intermediate level (herein called “specialization diploma” and equivalent to the UK certificate level or the US associate degree). Those types of knowledge with lower scores should receive an higher priority. II – Systems Engineering, Information and Communication Technologies, Process Technologies All these areas have deserved top priority from our assessments and they should be developed using an interdisciplinary problem – oriented approach. Their application to all Services, to modern manufacturing and to enable our firms to profit new opportunities such as E-Business should be considered as national priorities. III – New Opportunities: Environment, Natural Resources, Energy, Internationalization, Rehabilitation New societal challenges are creating new and wide markets for E&T: 53 a) Environment, Natural Resources, Energy The shift from a polluting industry to new types of activities under an industrial ecological conception and the development of a clean urban environment require huge investments using E&T intensively. Natural resources, namely, water, marine, forest and agricultural resources require E&T not just to build infrastructures but also to develop better information, integration, operation and control systems. Shortage of databases and information systems can become quite critical to move along more ambitious objectives. The expansion of the natural gas network and of new sources of energy (namely, water and wind) are promising perspectives for a cleaner future with less oil dependence. The modernization of trucks and cars as well as the development of railways are key instruments to reduce oil dependence and roads pollution. b) Internationalization Globalization may be an important opportunity but several policies should be pursued: Higher incorporation of E&T in processes of portuguese investment abroad (water, communication, distribution, etc) Higher contribution from multinational firms developing activities in Portugal to our innovation and RD systems Intensive participation of portuguese know-how in European consortia, in new priority domains of ERA (European Research Area) and new projects (6th Framework Programme) c) Rehabilitation An wide spectrum of domains from Housing and Transportation to Industrial infra-structures is requiring and will require heavier investments on rehabilitation, demanding specialized E&T know-how and firms. The liberalization of housing rents will create an immediate demand for these skills as housing rehabilitation in Portugal has a much lower importance than in most European countries. IV – Innovation, Quality, Procurement and Marketing The innovation cycle requires a favourable legal environment as well as integrated support to full development of new products and services. New policies should be adopted with this purpose and to support innovation initiatives per sector (transportation, communications, etc). The development of final products is a key condition for success in modern industry. Technological Procurement can play a dominant rule to stimulate innovative solutions and better E&T contributions as the State is a main buyer for infra-structures, equipment and services. Special structures should be adopted for new important projects (acquisition of military equipment, development of a new airport, TGV, etc) following examples of good practices as it was the case of Auto Europa factory. V – Cost Reduction Most managers and firms are pressing E&T to help them through the development of a lower cost solution without quality decreasing. This is particularly true for six types of cost: - Information Energy Mobility Telecommunications Space 54 - Bureaucracy VI – Research, Development and Technological Options RD budget and its component due to the private sector should increase. Setting up priorities and developing a problem oriented interdisciplinary approach to RD is essential to increase national E&T know-how and to give a better contribution to promising economic sectors. Participation in and support to problem – oriented programs will be consistent with present strategy of EU. RD effort of Defence should increase and make a better use of synergies with RD of civilian areas and with the negotiation of compensation schemes for important public acquisitions. 4.5 PROPOSALS Six initiatives can be now proposed Initiative I Social Image of Engineering and Technology Action I-1 OBJECTIVE: Identification of major contributions of E&T the development of Portugal during last decades DESCRIPTION: Production of a catalogue with major achievements ACTORS: Academy of Engineering, Society of Engineers, National Laboratories and Business Associations Action I-2 OBJECTIVE: Integration of E&T within the image of Portugal for foreign countries DESCRIPTION: Inclusion of E&T achievements in all material produced to promote Portugal in foreign markets ACTORS: Instituto de Comércio Externo - ICEP, Instituto de Apoio às Pequenas e Médias Empresas - IAPMEI, Fundação de Ciência e Tecnologia - FCT, Business Associations. Action I-3 OBJECTIVE: Promotion of Technology and Experimentation in Basic and Secondary Education DESCRIPTION: Inclusion of technologies and experimental classes in Basic and Secondary Education. Teaching Informatics should become compulsory. Presentation of job profiles and labour expectation for E&T. ACTORS: Ministry of Education, Ministry of Science and Technology, Ministry of Labour and Solidarity Initiative II Education and Training for Engineering and Technology Action II-1 OBJECTIVE: Development of 1.5 – 2 years programmes for students completing secondary education in technological specific areas and awarding the Diploma of Specialization 55 DESCRIPTION: These programs can be carried out by higher education institutions but their curriculum development should deserve special attention considering foreign experiences such as the certificate level at UK, courses offered by the Institutes Universitaires de Technologie – IUT in France, Associate degrees in USA. A list of priorities areas is included in (Tavares, 2000). ACTORS: Ministries of Education, of Economy and Higher Education Institutions Action II-2 OBJECTIVE: Promotion of Master and Doctoral programmes for Industry and Services (Technology, Master and Doctoral Degrees) DESCRIPTION: Development of programs focusing specific needs of Industries and Services and based on University – Business networks, inclusion of training periods and of colleagues from outside Universities to co-coordinate and to assess these activities. ACTORS: FCT, IAPMEI, Agência de Inovação - ADI, Higher Education Institutions, National Laboratories, Business Associations and Corporations. Action II-3 OBJECTIVE: National Debate about Education in Engineering and Technology DESCRIPTION: Organization of a National Conference on this subject based on previous work carried out by specialized groups. ACTORS: Academy of Engineering, Society of Engineers, Ministries of Education, of Science and Technology, of Economy, Higher Education Institutions. Initiative III Research and Development Action III-1 OBJECTIVE: Development of Inter-disciplinary Programmes focusing sectoral priorities or large national projects DESCRIPTION: Setting up these new RD programmes evolving institutions outside Universities and representing the stakeholders and the main players of sectors or projectors. These partnerships should be stable, from 3 to 9 years. Those sectors with a stronger interest on these initiatives include EV, TD, GIS, IT, TX, SI, AI, EL, MP, EN. ACTORS: Ministries of Science and Technology, of Economics and of different sectors Action III-2 OBJECTIVES: Mobility of PhDs Administration between Higher Education Institutions, Corporations and DESCRIPTION: Organization of programmes stimulating mobility of PhDs for periods from 1 to 5 years helping to develop RD in corporations and to renovate RD agendas in universities. ACTORS: FCT, IAPMEI, Higher Education Institutions, National Laboratories, ADI. 56 Action III-3 OBJECTIVES: Capital Fund to support Patents’ Registration and Commercialization of rights, marks and patents. DESCRIPTION: Development of a fund to support the registration and the commercialization of rights, marks and patents. ACTORS: Instituto Nacional da Propriedade Intelectual - INPI, IAPMEI, Instituto Nacional de Engenharia e Tecnologia Industrial - INETI, Instituto das Participações do Estudo - IPE. Initiative IV Procurement of Innovation and Technology Action IV-1 OBJECTIVE: Innovation Procurement DESCRIPTION: Identification of major needs for innovation (solutions, ,products, processes) in several sectors and large projects. Organization of public competitions and tenders. Support to compensation schemes for large acquisitions in foreign countries. ACTORS: Ministries of Social Equipment, Economy, Planning, Science and Technology, ADI, IAPMEI. Action IV-2 OBJECTIVE: Technology Public Procurement DESCRIPTION: Identification of major public acquisitions of technological goods and services and organization of accreditation and certification schemes. E-trade. Development of a Bank for Compensation Schemes. ACTORS: IAPMEI, National Laboratories, Business Associations, Sectoral Ministries. Initiative V Partnership Networking, Centres of Competence and Continuous Training Action V-1 OBJECTIVE: Assessment and Development of Partnership Networks DESCRIPTION: Assessment of existing centres and selection of the most qualified ones to promote the clustering of firms and of other institutions. ACTORS: IAPMEI, National Laboratories, Higher Education Institutes, Business Associations. Action V-2 OBJECTIVE: Corporate Technological University – E-Learning DESCRIPTION: Organization of E-Learning and other flexible education and training activities based on a partnership between public and private institutions. ACTORS: INETI, IAPMEI, Higher Education Institutions, Business Associations. Action V-3 OBJECTIVE: Human Capital Network of ET 2000 57 DESCRIPTION: Generation of added-value contributions through the developed network of ET 2000. Initiative VI Reduction of External Costs for Corporations Action VI-1 OBJECTIVE: Reduction of Information Costs DESCRIPTION: Application of the principles expressed in the Green Book for Information Society. The State should produce free information, information for development and added value information under free of charge, production’s cost charge or added value price, respectively. ACTORS: Ministry of Planning, Instituto Nacional de Estatística – INE and other offices of public administration. Action VI-2 OBJECTIVES: Reduction of Energy Costs DESCRIPTION: Multiannual contracts for price reduction of energy and intelligent management of energy (active and passive systems). Actors: Ministries of Economy, Environment and Land, National Laboratories, Regulation Institutes, Higher Education Institutions. Action VI-3 OBJECTIVES: Reduction of Mobility Costs DESCRIPTION: Multiannual contracts to reduce mobility costs, helping to streamline multimodal interfaces and logistic chains. Use of E-Business. ACTORS: Ministries of Social Equipment, Economy, Regulation Institutes, National Laboratories, Higher Education Institutes. Action VI-4 OBJECTIVES: Reduction of Communication Costs DESCRIPTION: Multi-annual contracts to reduce image, voice and data communication costs, particularly in terms of internet, videoconferencing and E-Business. ACTORS: Ministries of Social Equipment, Economy, Regulation Institutes, National Laboratories and Higher Education Institutions. Action VI-5 OBJECTIVES: Reduction of Space Costs. DESCRIPTION: Promotion of land planning helping to develop technology parks and industrial areas with a high quality of access. ACTORS: Ministries of Environment, and Land Planning, Social Equipment and Municipalities. 58 Action VI-6 OBJECTIVES: Reduction of Bureaucracy Cost DESCRIPTION: Bureaucratic simplification, particularly for the links between firms and Administration as well as for public tenders. ACTORS: Ministries of Economy, Social Equipment, Justice. 59 4.6 FINAL WORDS Physical Capital and Natural Resources were considered as key factors for development by most authors of the Theory of Economic Development after 2nd World War when new countries started their pace to independence and growth. However, nowadays, such factors are much less important than knowledge and innovation. These are the new generators of value and of more stable and competitive clusters of economic activities. Therefore, the issue of how to manage knowledge, namely scientific and technological knowledge, as well as innovation, becomes the main agenda for governments committed to development. However, this new type of management has to overcome major shortcomings as it concerns intangible assets, more connected to the future than to the past and this explains why Technology Foresight as a diagnostic and decision aid to support knowledge policies has become so important either in small or in large countries. This is the “raizon d’être” of ET 2000. The presented results show clearly the essential contribution of E&T to achieve a more sustainable and competitive development of Portugal and how deceptive and illusory can be giving a smaller priority to the development of technological human capital, to the support of RD oriented to tackle priorities and applied problems or to the implementation of “horizontal” policies stimulating innovation. Therefore, technology is not a commodity and the answer given to the manager quoted in the beginning of this book, “I will buy it” is not right. Before buying it, Technology has to be created and to be learned. Furthermore, the process of learning technology and how to use it effectively and efficiently implies an interdisciplinary approach covering an wide spectrum of domains, from Engineering to Sociology, from Economics to Psychology and this is the major challenge to achieve significant advances in areas so different as education, environment or competitiveness and quality. Nevertheless, the use of technology is a function of the nature of each society, of its values and culture. The next 20 years will be no exception. Unfortunately, major existing global problems such as famines, regional wars, segregation or social exclusion are not being significantly alleviated by modern Sciences, Engineering and Technology but the ethics and the main values guiding E&T are evolving and the participants of ET2000 hope that solidarity will be found not less important than sustainability or than efficiency, along the two coming decades. Luís Valadares Tavares IST, March 2001 60 5 - REFERENCES Antunes, C.H. and L. V. Tavares ,(ed.), 2000, Investigação Operacional: Casos de Aplicação, Mc GrawHill. Bonfim, 2000 National R&D challenges: the engineering and technology impact (2000-2006), International Workshop ET 2000. Charnes, C., W.W. Cooper and E. Rhodes, 1978, Measuring the efficiency of decision making units, European Journal of Operational Research, 2, 429-444. Contzen, J.P., 2000, ID em Portugal, International Workshop ET2000. Direcção Geral do Ambiente, 1999, Relatório do Estado do Ambiente 1998, Ministério do Ambiente. Esty, D. and Porter, M., 1998, Industrial Ecology and Competitiveness, Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol.2, Number 1, pp 35-43. European Commission, 1998, Strategic Analysis for European S&T Policy Intelligence, DGXII, European Commission. European Commission, 1999a, The Futures Project: Synthesis Report, IPTS, European Commission. 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Oral, M., 1993, A methodology for competitiveness analysis and strategy formulations in glass industry, European Journal of Operational Research, 68, 9-22. Porter, M., 1990, The competitive advantage of nations, Macmillan. Schwab, Porter, Sachs, Warner e Levinson, 1999, The Global Competitiveness Report, World Economic Forum, Oxford University Press. Sexton, TR, ed., 1986, Measuring efficiency: an assessment of data envelopment analysis, Jossey-Bass. Tavares, L. V., 1994, The strategic development of human resources: the challenge of OR, International Transactions of OR, 1, 4, 465-477. Tavares, L. V., 1995, On the development of educational policies, European Journal of Operational Research, 82, 409-421. Tavares, L.V. e F. Nunes Correia, 1999, Optimização Linear e Não Linear, Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian, 2ª ed. Tavares, L. V., 2000, A Engenharia e a Tecnologia ao Serviço do Desenvolvimento de Portugal Prospectiva e Estratégia 2000 – 2020, Editorial Verbo 61 Annex Network of Human Capital - ET 2000 A) Chairmanship and Coordination Chairmanship Prof. Armando Lencastre, AE Eng.º F. Sousa Soares, OE Com. Jorge Rocha de Matos, AIP Eng.º João Bártolo, AE Prof. Luís Valadares Tavares, IST Advisory Committee Eng.º João Bártolo, Presidente Eng.º F. Marques Videira, AE Eng.º Alfaiate, AIP Eng.º J. Viana Baptista, OE Prof. Luís Valadares Tavares, Director Eng.º H. Pereira do Vale, General Secretary Coordination Prof. Luís Valadares Tavares, Director do Projecto Dr. Manuel João Pereira Eng.º Luís Lapão Dr.ª Sofia Madureira Dr.ª Cláudia Gonçalves Eng. Luís Ferreira Patrícia Nunes B) Issues Societal Scenarios Prof. Luís Valadares Tavares, IST Prof. João Ferreira de Almeida, ISCTE Prof. M. Braga da Cruz, ICS e UCP Prof. João Ferreira do Amaral, Pres. da República Prof. Jorge Gaspar, Univ. de Lisboa Dr. Francisco Sarsfield Cabral, RR Prof. Manuel Heitor, IST Prof. João Caraça, ISEG, FCG e Pres. da República Prof. Diogo Lucena, FCG e UNL Prof. João Confraria, ICP Prof. Abel Mateus, Banco de Portugal e UNL Eng.º João Cravinho, Dep Assemb. da República Prof. Carlos Salema, IST Profa. Maria João Rodrigues, ISCTE Eng.º Paulo Ramos, COMPAQ Macro Economics Prof. Abel Mateus, Banco de Portugal e UNL Eng.º António Antunes, UNL Prof. António Borges, INSEAD Prof. João César das Neves, UCP Prof. Pedro Telhado Pereira, UNL Prof. João Ferreira do Amaral, Pres. da República Dr.ª Antónia Ascenção Rato, CTT Eng.ª Ângela Lobo, GEPE Dr. Rui Guimarães, INETI Dr.ª Teresinha Duarte, GEPE Industrial Investment Prof. José Manuel Amado Silva, UAL Dr. Francisco Palma, Instituto Regulador da Energia Eléctrica Eng.º José Mota Maia, INPI Dr. Rui Madaleno, AIP Eng.º Hortense Martins, INETI Eng.º Pedro Sena da Silva, AUTOSIL Eng.º António Pinheiro, Direcção Geral Indústria Eng.ª Ângela Lobo, GEPE Dr.ª Teresinha Duarte, GEPE Environment Prof. Paulo Ferrão, IST Eng.º Artur Ascenso Pires, IPE - Águas de Portugal Prof. Fernando Santana, Univ. Nova Prof. Roland Clift, University Surrey Prof. Humberto Rosa, Faculdade Ciências, UL Eng.ª Ângela Lobo, GEPE Dr. Francisco Quintela, José Mello, Quimitécnica Dr.ª Teresinha Duarte, GEPE Eng.º Francisco Van Zeller, CIP e Metal Portuguesa Eng.º Sá Nogueira, INAPA Eng.º Macieira Antunes, Dir. Geral do Ambiente Prof. Carlos Borrego, Univ. Aveiro Prof. John Ehrenfeld, MIT Prof. J. Delgado Domingos, IST Eng.ª Teresa Ribeiro, Agência Europeia Ambiente Prof. Cremilde Azevedo, DG XI Innovation, Technological Internationalization Marketing and Prof. Manuel Heitor, IST Prof. José Paulo Esperança, UCP Profa. Conceição Santos, ISCTE Dr. Henrique Neto, Sociedade de Engenharia e Transformação Prof. Miguel Athayde Marques, Jerónimo Martins Prof. João Caraça, ISEG/FCG Prof. Vítor Corado Simões, ISEG Profa. Regina Salvador, Univ. Nova de Lisboa Prof. Alberto Castro, UCP Porto Prof. Jorge Alves, Univ. Aveiro Prof. Abel Mateus, Banco de Portugal Prof. Pedro Guedes de Oliveira, FEUP Dr.Jean-Pierre Contzen, European Commission Prof. João Sentieiro, IST – ISR Dr. Hierry Gaudin, Membro da Comissão de Investigação e da Tecnologia, França Eng.º Pedro Sena e Silva, AUTOSIL Dr. David Gibson, IC2 Institute The University of Texas at Austin, USA Prof. Konstadinos Goulias,The Pennsylvania State University, USA Dr. Charles Buchanan, FLAD Prof. Keith Pavitt, SPRU University of Sussex, UK Eng.º Paulo Nordeste, PT Inovação Prof. Giogio Sirilli, Institute of Studies on Scientific Research ISRDS, IT Eng.º Manuel Moura, SIEMENS Dr. Barry Stevens, OECD International Futures Programme Dr. Diogo Vasconcelos, Ideias e Negócios Prof. Robert H. Wilson, LBJ School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin USA Dr. José Pedro Vieira, Abril Jornal Dr. Félix Ribeiro, MEPAT Dr. Pedro Pissarra, Biotecnol Prof. A. Castro Guerra, IAPMEI Dr. João Carreira, Critical Sofware Prof. Luís Magalhães, FCT Dr.ª Margarida Fontes, INETI Dr. José A.B. Assis, FCT Eng.º José Rui Felizardo, Inteli Prof. Mª Lurdes Rodrigues, OCT Eng.º Pedro Borges de Almeida, CPIN 62 Eng.ª Paula Fonseca, OCT Eng.º Vasco Varela, Taguspark Dr. Lino Fernandes, Agência de Inovação Doutor. Manuel Laranja, Agência de Inovação Eng.º José Amaro Nunes, José Mello Quimigest Eng.º Nuno Soares, CTT Dr. Alberto Pimenta, CTT Dr.ª Mª Helena Camacho, CTT YET – Young Engineers and Technologists Prof. António Gouveia Portela, IST Eng. Luís Lapão, IST Eng.ª Catarina Queiroga, ISQ Dr.ª Céu Mateus, Ministério da Saúde Dr. Avelino Ribeiro, SIBS Dr. Diogo Vasconcelos, Ideias e Negócios Eng.º Duarte Braga, INSEAD Eng.º Pedro Conceição, Univ. Austin Dr. Filipe Santos, Univ. Stanford Eng.º Duarte Lopes, Optimus Eng.º Miguel Sousa Lobo, Univ. Stanford Engº. José Coutinho, Neurónio Eng.º Francisco Veloso, MIT Eng.º Luís Oliveira e Silva, UCLA Eng.º Júlio Mateus, Associação dos Municípios Dr. Pedro Pissarra, Biotecnol C) Sectoral Studies Environment Eng.º Jaime Melo Baptista, LNEC Prof.ª Eduarda Beja Neves, LNEC Prof. Francisco Nunes Correia, IST Eng.º António Amaro, IPE-Regia Eng.º Adelino Silva Soares, Associação Portuguesa de Distribuição e Drenagem de Água Dr. Aníbal Santos, EGF Eng.º Artur Cabeças, EGF Eng.º António Almeida Rocha, Hidroprojecto Eng.º Manuel Piedade, Hidroprojecto Eng.º António Barahona d'Almeida, Sumolis Eng.º Carlos Pássaro, Ponto Verde Prof. António Betâmio de Almeida, IST Eng.º António Branco, Parque das Nações Prof. António Lobato de Faria, Instituto dos Resíduos Prof. Carlos Borrego, Universidade de Aveiro Eng.º Miguel Conceição, Universidade de Aveiro Prof. Delgado Domingos, IST Prof. Fernando Santana, UNL Eng.º Francisco Ferreira, Quercus Eng.º Rui Berkemeier, Quercus Dr. Francisco Quintela, Quimitécnica Eng.º Frederico Melo Franco, Luságua Prof. Humberto Rosa, Gabinete do Primeiro Ministro e Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa Eng.º João Bau, IPE-Águas de Portugal Eng.º Manuel Ramos Motta, IPE-Águas de Portugal Prof. João Quinhones Levy, IST Prof. João Ribeiro da Costa, UNL Eng.º João Sá Nogueira, Comissão da Associação Industrial Portuguesa para o Ambiente Eng.º Joaquim Poças Martins, Águas de Gaia E.M. Eng.º Manuel da Fonseca, Águas de Gaia E.M. Eng.º Luís Catarino, IPE – Águas de Portugal Eng.º Luís Rebello da Silva, Sanest Eng.º Macieira Antunes, Direcção Geral do Ambiente Eng.º Alberto Marcolino, Direcção Geral do Ambiente Eng.º Manuel Abecasis, Sétal Dégremont Eng.º Manuel Pinheiro, Instituto Português do Ambiente Eng.ª Maria Rafaela Matos, LNEC Eng.º Mineiro Aires, Instituto da Água Eng.º Pedro Falcão e Cunha, Somague/Ambiente Eng.º Pedro Martins da Silva, LNEC Eng.º Pedro Miranda, Siemens Eng.º Jorge Pires, Siemens Eng.º Pedro Serra, IRAR Eng.º Rui Godinho, Câmara Municipal de Lisboa Cristina Pereira, LNEC Energy Engº. Alberto Moreno, DGE Dr. Francisco Palma, Instituto Regulador de Energia Eléctrica Eng.º Ricardo Cruz Filipe, Ministério das Finanças Eng.º Luís Filipe Pereira, ADP Adubos de Portugal Profa. Teresa Correia de Barros, IST Eng.º Manuel Ferreira de Oliveira, Petrogal Eng.º Jorge Vasconcelos, ERSE Eng.º Ângelo Correia, Lusitaniagas Eng.º Miguel Freitas de Oliveira, COGEN Dr. Mário Cristina de Sousa, EDP Dr. Álvaro Martins, CEEETA Dr. António Mexia, GDP Prof. José Pedro Sucena Paiva, IST Eng.º Jorge Guimarães, EDP Eng.º. João de Jesus Ferreira, Climaespaço Eng.º Luís Mira Amaral, BPI Prof. Aníbal Traça de Almeida, Univ. Coimbra Eng.º João Nascimento Baptista, REN Eng.º Carlos Oliveira, Cimpor Eng.º António Ferreira da Costa, EDP – PROET Engº. José Montalvão e Silva, ABB Eng.ª Ana Cristina Nunes, CPPE Eng.º João Paulo Silva Marques, Siemens Eng.º António Gonçalves, CPPE Eng.º Luís Reis, FINERTEC Eng.º José Pombo Duarte, REN Food Industry Prof. Xavier Malcata, Esc. Sup. Biot. UCP Prof. Miguel Athayde Marques, Jerónimo Martins Eng.º Fernando Gomes Silva, IPE Dr. António Pires de Lima, Presidente COMPAL Dr. José Rodrigues Gomes, SONAE Dr. António Simões, Nutrinveste Dr. Luís Cantarel, Nestlé Sr. Casimiro de Almeida, Lactogal Dr. Luís Mesquita Dias, FIMA Eng.º Fernando Guedes, Sogrape Eng.º Luís San Miguel Bento, I&D da RAR Dr. Jorge Pires, Nacional Eng.º Vasco da Gama, Presidente da Conf. do Com. e Serv. de Portugal Eng.º José Aníbal Soares, UNICER Construction Prof. Fernando Branco, IST Dr. Diogo Vaz Guedes, SOMAGUE Eng.º Rui Liberal, ANA Dr. Henrique Valadares, Bento Pedroso Const Eng.º Luís Machado, BRISA Dr.ª Vera Pires Coelho, Edifer Eng.º Eduardo Soveral, CML Dr. Joaquim Fortunato, MSF, SA Eng.º Sérgio Manuel, EDP Dr. Luís Marques Santos, Abrantina SA Eng.º António Grima, EPAL Dr. Manuel F Cachorro, Ramalho Rosa SA Eng.º Luís Loureiro, GATTEL Dr. José Francisco Silva Fonseca, Const do Tâmega SA Eng.º Manuel Furtado, GDP Eng.º Domingos Serpa Santos, Somafel Prof. António Lamas, IEP Prof. António Tadeu, FCTUC Eng.º Carlos Aires, INAG Eng.º Rui Nogueira Simões, AECOPS 63 Eng.ª Maria Anjos, INH Eng.º António V da Mota, ANEOP Eng.º Eduardo Zúquete, Metro Eng.º Rui Correia, LNEC Dr. Laurindo C da Costa, Soares da Costa SA Eng.º Rui Loureiro, ANIPC Dr. P Teixeira Duarte, Teixeira Duarte SA Eng.º António Ramos Pires, IPQ Dr. Diogo Vaz Guedes, Soconstroi Eng.º António Pinheiro, DGI Dr. Fernando Manuel Fernandes, Engil SA Engº. António Grima, EPAL Dr. António Manuel Mota, Mota & Companhia Building Materials Prof. José Manuel Gaspar Nero, IST Eng.º João Pinto de Sousa, Assoc. Port. Fab. Tintas e Vernizes Eng.º Rodrigo da Fonseca, CIMPOR – ATIC Eng.º António Monteiro, Assoc. Ind. Colas e Similares Dr. Mário Valadas Fernandes, SECIL – ATIC Engº. Jorge Santos, Corticeira AMORIM Eng.º Jorge Manuel Santos Pato, APEB Eng.º António Esteves, Assoc. Ind. Madeira e Mobiliário de Portugal Dr. Luís Sotto Mayor, Assoc. Port. Ind. Mármores e Granitos, Ramos Afins Eng.º. Fernando Carvalho, Sonae Dr.ª Isabel Beja, Assoc. Port. Ind. Mármores e Granitos, Ramos Afins Eng.ª Mª Clotilde Cabral, Assoc. P. Ind. Plást. Dr. Álvaro Alvarez, Siderurgia Nacional Eng.º Sónia Sphor, Cerâmicas Valadares Sr. António F. Saraiva, Metal. Luso-Alemã Eng.º Vaz Serra, Centro Tecnológico Cerâmica e Vidro Dr. Jorge Morgado, Assc. Pt. Ind. Ferrag. Eng.º Serpa Oliva, C. Barbosa Coimbra Dr. Filipe Carvalho, Assc. Pt. Ind. Ferrag. Eng.º Fernando Perpétuo, SPAL e APOLO Eng.º José Braga, RMC, Lda Eng.º Girão Pereira, SPAL e APOLO Dr. Filipe dos Santos, Assc. Nac. Ind. Mat. Elect. e Electrónico Eng.º. Artur Brandão, COVINA Eng.ª Cristina Oliveira, Assc. Nac. Ind. Prod. Cimento Eng.º. Sequeira Martins, CIMPOR – ATIC Eng.º Luís Loureiro, Assc. Nac. Ind. Prod. Cimento Eng.º Álvaro Gomes, CIMPOR – ATIC Eng.º Carlos Oliveira, CIMPOR – ATIC Eng.º Álvaro Gomes, CIMPOR Metal and Plastic Products and Manufacturing Prof. Rui Mesquita, IST Eng.º Manuel Norton, AD tranz Eng.º Paulo Peças, IST Engº. Jorge Sales Gomes, Papelaco Eng.º Pedro Reis, OGMA Eng.º Joaquim Menezes, Grupo Ibermoldes Eng.º Manuel Cruz, AD Tranz Prof. Luís Braga Campos, IST Eng.º Manuel Santos Silva, ANEM Eng.º Casimiro Pinto, Metropolitano Eng.º José Afonso Figueiredo da Costa, José de Mello – ATM Textiles Prof. Luís Almeida, CITEVE Eng.º. Ana Amorim, Riopele Eng.º Ana Amorim, Fábrica Têxtil Riopele Eng.º Carlos Manuel Pontes Bento, Lameirinho Eng.º Francisco Queiroz, Têxtil Manuel Gonçalves Eng.º Gaspar Sousa Coutinho, Têxtil João Duarte Eng.º Lucília Sampaio, Tint Acab Tecidos V de Tábuas Lda Eng.º Mário Duarte de Araújo, Univ. Minho Eng.º Mário Jorge Machado, Estamparia Adalberto Eng.º Mário Nunes, Univ. Beira Interior Eng.º Paulo Castro, Malhas Sonix, Eng.º Francisco Gomes, Fab Tecidos Carvalho Lda Eng.º João Manuel Prata de Sousa, Paulo de Oliveira SA Automobile Industry Electronics Prof. Epifânio de Franca, IST Eng.º Renato Morgado, EFACEC Prof. José Ferreira da Rocha, Univ. Aveiro Eng.º José Martinho, NETIE Prof. Augusto Casaca, IST Dr. Miguel Cruz, DGI Prof. Afonso Barbosa, IST Dr.ª Manuela Loureiro, MCT Prof. Artur Pimenta Alves, FEUP Gen. Adriano Portela, EID Prof. Adolfo Steiger Garção, UNL Eng.º Francisco Padinha, PT Prof. Carlos Costa, UM Eng.º Paulo Nordeste, PT Dr. João Mota Pinto, ICEP Eng.º João Teixeira, AJ Fonseca Eng.º José Pedro Jesus, OCTAL Eng.º António de Paiva e Pona, ABB Prof. Clemente Pedro Nunes, QUIMIGEST Eng. Eduardo Lopes Rodrigues, Finibanco Eng.ª Lubélia Penedo, APEQ Eng.º Carlos Lopes Vaz, BPI Prof. Augusto Medina, FEUP/UP Eng.º Salvador Pinheiro, PETROGAL Eng.ª Mª João Benoliel, EPAL Dr. Luís Portela, Bial Eng.º Filipe Constant, Solvay Prof. João Bordado, IST Prof. Sebastião Feyo de Azevedo, FEUP/UP Prof. Júlio Novais, IST Engº. Henrique Marques Pereira, QUIMIGEST Dr. Pedro Brito Correia, Herbex Eng.º João Villax, Hovione Eng.º Manuel Gil Mata, PORTUCEL José de Mello – QUIMIGEST Eng. José Bonfim – IICTI, MCT Chemistry Prof. Fernando Ramôa Ribeiro, Reitoria UTL Eng.º Rui Felizardo, Inteli Eng. Alexandre Videira, Inteli Dr. Luís Palma Féria, Acecia Eng.º Vístulo de Abreu, Renaultgest Prof. Paulo Ferrão, IST Dr. José Abreu, DPIE – IAPMEI Prof. José Manuel Barata Marques, UCP Eng.º Rogério Martins, Consultor Eng.º Luís Fernando Mira Amaral, Pres. BFE - Investimentos, SA Eng.º. Luís de Montellano, CC Luso-Coreana Drª. Ana Vaz de Almeida, Rel. Públicas ACECIA, ACE Eng.º Jorge Lopes Moura, Adm. IPETEX, SA Eng.º Alfredo Azevedo, Sunviauto, SA Sr. Henrique Neto, Pres. do Grº. Iberomoldes Dr. António Barradas, Consultor Dr. Álvaro de Oliveira, Alfamicro Prof. Daniel Bessa, FECUP Dr. José da Costa Pereira, Dir.Deptº.Control. Plasfil, Lda. Eng.º Octávio Carmo-Costa, Auto Europa Automóveis, Lda. Eng.º Saúl Pereira, Simoldes, Lda. Eng.º José Carola, Consultor DGI Eng.º Jorge Pinho de Moreira, S. Sunviauto, SA Prof. Guilherme Costa, Pres. ICEP 64 Eng.º Pedro Ramalho, Dir. Prod. Simoldes Lda Drª. Maria Jorge Costa, Jornal “Diário Económico” Dr. José Félix Ribeiro, S. Dir. Geral DPP/MPAT Dr. Alexandre Coutinho, Jornal “Expresso” Sr. José Sousa Ribeiro, Pres. AFIA Eng.º Manuel Delgado, SimTec Eng.º Jorge Rosa, Dir.Ger. Mitsubishi Tramagauto Drª. Helena Duarte, DPIE – IAPMEI Mr. Ralph Rossignollo, Dir. Exec. Auto Europa Prof. António T. Marques, Pres. INEGI Eng.º Rui Sá, INEGI Dr. João Abel Freitas, Dir. GEPE/ME Dr. Victor Santos, Dir. Geral do V.P. IAPMEI Dr. Manuel Gameiro, Pres. Plasfil, Lda Eng.º António Nogueira da Silva, Coorden. IAPMEI – GAPIE Dr. António João Lavrador, Adm. IPETEX SA Eng.º Pedro Sena da Silva, Pres. Acumulador. AUTOSIL Eng.º José Costa Lima, OPEL de Portugal Engº. Rainer Taschner, Dir.Eng.ª Prod. Auto Europa Eng.º Lourenço Maia, Adm. SODIA, SA Eng.º Hildebrando Vasconcelos, CATIM Eng.º Afonso Tello Baptista, CTT Shoes Industry Eng.º Joaquim Leandro de Melo, C Tecn Calçado Sr Fortunato Frederico, APICCAPS Dr.ª Maria José Ferreira, CTC Dr. Manuel Carlos Costa e Silva, APICCAPS Eng.ª Maria José Teixeira, CTC Dr. Alfredo Jorge, APICCAPS Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Consultor Dr. Pedro Silva, APICCAPS Eng.º Manuel Resende, LIREL Eng.º Joaquim Leandro de Melo, CTC Eng.º Agostinho Silva, CEI Dr. Rui Moreira, CTC Dr. Laurindo Oliveira, Expandindústria Eng.ª Cândida Medon, CTC Sr. Paulo Costa, Expandindústria Engineering Services Prof. Luís Maltez , Tagus Park Prof. Ricardo Oliveira, COBA Prof. Diamantino Durão, IST Eng.º Nuno Leandro, REFER Prof. Leopoldo Guimarães, FCT/UNL Engº. Alberto Wanderley Soares, BCP Prof. Carlos Sá Furtado, FCT Eng.º Ferreira da Costa, PROET Prof. Manuel de Oliveira Duarte, Univ. Aveiro Eng.º Artur Ravara, GAPRES Dr. Guilherme Costa, ICEP Eng.º António Almeida Rocha, Hidroprojecto Eng.º Joaquim Silva Dias, ICP Eng.º Fernando Pereira, HP Eng.º Rui Correia, LNEC Eng.º José Vieira da Costa, Procesl Prof. Henrique Machado Jorge, INETI Eng.º Ilídio Serôdio, Profabril Eng.º F. Silveira Ramos, APPC Eng.º Úlpio Nascimento, Dr. Manuel Moura, ADFER Engª Maria Helena Carvalho, Hidrorumo Prof. José Luís Teixeira, IHERA Dr. Adérito Serrão, EDIA – Beja Eng.ª Isabel Pinto Correia, FCE Eng.º Carlos Alberto Mineiro Aires, INAG Eng.º Luís Fernandes, ENGIL - Lisboa Dr. Luís Madureira, Mota & Cia - Porto Eng.º Pedro Teixeira Duarte, Teixeira Duarte Engº. Adão da Fonseca, AFA Eng.º Monteiro Nunes, Consulgal Prof. António Reis, GRID Eng.º Eduardo Sobral, Siemens Eng.º José Miguel Leal da Silva, José de Melo-Quimigest Eng.º Frederico Melâneo, Metropolitano Transportation and Distribution Prof. José Manuel Viegas, IST Dr. José Costa Faria, Luís Simões Dr. Pedro Gonçalves, Metropolitano Lx Eng. José Pedro de Jesus, CP Dr. Fernando Barreto Braga, ANA Dr. José Costa Faria, Luís Simões Dr. Helder Oliveira, Carris Eng.º João Pinto e Sousa, Pararede Eng.º João Francisco Reis Simões, Carris Eng.º José Carlos Gonçalves Viana, Consultor Dr. Helder Correia Sampaio, Rodoviária Lisboa Eng.º José Falcão e Cunha, Dep. Assemb. República Dr. António Crisóstomo Teixeira, CP Eng.º Nuno Soares, CTT Dr. Fernando Barreto Braga, ANA Eng.º João Mello Franco, José Mello-Soponata Eng.º Francisco Seabra Ferreira, Metropolitano Eng.º Paulo Santos, Siemens Telecommunications Dr. José Filipe Rafael, UCP Sr. António M. Beja, McKinsey Eng.º Paulo Nordeste, PT Eng.º Luís Barata, Siemens Eng.º Graça Bau, TV Cabo Eng.º José Manuel Coutinho, CTT Sr. Guy Laflamme, Cabovisão Eng.º Francisco Padinha, PT Eng.º Rui Candeias Fernandes, Alcatel Prof. João Confraria, ICP Dr. Francisco Velez Roxo, Easysoft Engª Clara Janeira, PT Dr. Gonçalo Sequeira Braga, Maxitel Eng.º Iriarte Esteves, TMN Prof. Carlos Salema, Inst. Telecom. Dr. António Carrapatoso, Telecel Prof. Augusto Casaca, INESC Dr. José Manuel Ferrari Careto, Optimus/Novis Prof. Pedro Veiga, FCCN Eng.º Carlos Marques, E3G Eng.º Nelson Tomaz, CTT Eng.ª Isabel Rebelo, ANA Eng.ª Maria do Carmo Lopes, CP Eng.º José Pombo Duarte, REN Eng.º João Picoito, Siemens Information Technologies Eng.º Eduardo Beira, Univ. Minho e Agência para o Investimento no Norte Eng.º Domingos Soares de Oliveira, CAPGEMINI Prof. Altamiro Machado, Univ Minho Eng. Filipe Sá Soares, Univ. Minho Engª Delfina Sá Soares, Univ. Minho Dr. José Carlos Nascimento, Univ. Minho Eng. António Gomes Miguel, Univ. Minho Drª Anabela Sarmento, ISCAP Prof. João Nuno Oliveira, Univ. Minho Dr. Mário Lousã, ISCAP Dr. Beja Carneiro, Pedip Dr. Castro Correia, Instituto de Informática do Min. Finanças Engª Júlia Ladeira, Direcção Geral de Serviços Informáticos do Min. Justiça Drª Margarida Pires, Cª Portuguesa Time Sharing Dr. Pedro Norton de Matos, Unysis Prof. Themudo de Castro, Ineti Dr. João Rebello de Andrade, PriceWaterchouse Coopers Drª Maria Céu Resende, Sonae 65 Eng. António Daniel, CPCdi Dr. Jorge Carneiro, Sage Infologia Eng. Carlos Sardo, Cª IBM Portuguesa Eng. Joaquim Cunha, Caso Eng. Jorge Baptista, Primavera Eng. Pedro Ferreira, Edinfor Eng. Queiroz Machado, CPCsi Prof. José Tribolet, Inesc Eng. Luís Paupério, I2S Eng. António Murta, Enabler Dr. Cabral Menezes, BPI Dr. Puerta da Costa, BPI Dr. Reis Abreu, IGIF do Min. Saúde Dr. Ricardo Seara, BPI Dr. José Henriques, Novabase Eng. José Renito, Novabase Dr. Santos Carneiro, Imediata Eng. Luis Costa, IBS Eng. Silva Santos, Edinfor Eng. José Barbosa, Efacec Eng. Rui Melo, Quattro Drª Helena Monteiro, Ernst & Young Dr. Lino Fernandes, Agência de Inovação Dr. Manuel dos Santos, Instituto de Informática Eng. Roberto Carneiro, UCP Financial Services Dr. Manuel João Pereira, UCP Prof. José Alegria, BANIF Dr. José Miguel Pessanha, BCP – Atlântico Eng.º Domingos Soares de Oliveira, CAPGEMINI Eng.º João Leite, Grupo BPSM Dr. Filipe Santos, SIBS Eng.ª Isabel Ferreira, Montepio Geral Dr. Amadeu Paiva, UNICRE Dr. Paulo Rodrigues da Silva, BPI Dr. Miguel Torres Baptista, BES Dr. Nuno Afonso Henriques Santos, Sanest Eng.º José Carlos Rodrigues, Assoc Gestores de Fortunas Eng.º Paulino Magalhães Correa, BP Eng.º Luís Vaz, AXA Portugal Dr. Álvaro Faria de Oliveira, SAS Dr. Vasco Sousa Ribeiro, Inst. Gestão Crédito Público (Ministério Economia e Finanças) Eng.º Jorge Ferreira Pinto, BVL Eng.º Sérvulo Rodrigues, BES Eng.º Carlos Madeira, GEMINI Consulting Dr. Rui Mendes, CGD Dr. Pedro Orvalho, Assoc. Portuguesa de Bancos Eng.º Raul Galamba, Mckinsey International Engº. António Moreira Lopes, CGD Dr. Rui Bana e Costa, CAPGEMINI Dr. Pedro Brandão Rodrigues, Banco Melo Inv Prof. Miguel Athayde Marques, CGD Eng. Aristides Meneses, INSAT Dr. Fernando Nunes, Price Waterhouse Coopers Dr. Joaquim Pinto Matos, CTT Geographical Information Systems Prof. João Bento, IST Prof. Rui Gonçalves Henriques, CNIG Prof. António Câmara, FCT/UNL Dr. Nelson Neves, Imersiva Prof. António Lamas, IEP Prof. Rui Gonçalves Henriques, INAG Prof. João Matos, IST Dr. António Fernandes, CM Oeiras Gen.ª Mourato Rodrigues, Ex-IGEOE Dr.ª Mafalda Reis, CM Loures Dr. Luís Barruncho, Edinfor Eng.º João Brandão Soares, CCR Centro Eng.º Fernando Malha, Intergraph Eng.º António Vidigal, APRITEL Eng.º Rui Oliveira, Micrograph Eng.º Francisco Padinha, PT Eng.º Carlos Coucelo, Octopus Eng.º José Luís de Carvalho, Portucel Eng.º Nuno Colaço, Coba Eng.º João Marnoto, Nova Geo Prof. Eduardo Ribeiro de Sousa, Aquasis Eng.º Clemente dos Reis, EPAL Prof. João Ribeiro da Costa, Chiron Eng.ª Mª Conceição Granger, Sanest Eng.º José Rayara/Rui Coelho, Profabril/Agripro Dr. Manuel Torres Silva, Sanest Eng.º José Coutinho, CTT Eng.ª Marta Araújo, Metropolitano D) Academic – Business Council Prof. Luís Valente de Oliveira (Presidente) Prof. Altamiro Machado Dr. António Crisóstomo Teixeira Eng.º António de Sousa Gomes Prof. António Gouvêa Portela Eng.º António Martins Eng.º António Pinheiro Prof. António Torres Marques Prof. Augusto Mateus Prof. Carlos A. V. Costa Prof. Carlos Alberto Castro Couto Dr. Carlos de Melo Ribeiro Eng.º Carlos Dias Prof. Carlos Moreira da Silva Prof. Carlos Salema Prof. Clemente Pedro Nunes Prof. Daniel Bessa Prof. Diamantino Durão Prof. Diogo de Lucena Dr. Diogo Vasconcelos Prof. Eduardo Arantes e Oliveira Eng.º Emílio Rosa Eng.º F. Silveira Ramos Eng.º Fernando A. de Melo Antunes Dr. Fernando Barreto Braga Eng.º Fernando Faria de Oliveira Dr. Francisco Teixeira Pereira Soares Prof. Henrique Machado Jorge Eng.º Henrique Neto Dr. João Abel Freitas Dr. João Álvaro Bau Prof. João Bessa Sousa Prof. João Caraça Prof. João Levy Eng.º João Vaz Guedes Prof. Jorge Alves Prof. José Carlos Marques dos Santos Prof. José de Melo Torres Campos Eng.º José Domingo Vistulo de Abreu Prof. José Manuel Ferreira Lemos Prof. José Soeiro Ferreira Prof. José Tribolet Prof. Luís Andrade Ferreira Eng.º Luís Fernando Mira Amaral Eng.º Luís Filipe de Moura Vicente Dr. Luís Filipe Pereira Prof. L T Almeida Prof. Luiz de Sousa Lobo Prof. Manuel Barata Marques Dr. Manuel Fernandes Tomás Eng.º Manuel Ferreira de Oliveira Doutor Manuel Laranja Prof. Manuel Leal da Costa Lobo Eng.º Manuel Santos Silva Profa. Maria da Graça Carvalho Drª Maria Idalina Salgueiro Dr. Mário Cristina de Sousa Eng.º Mário Lino Correia 66 Prof. Miguel Athayde Marques Dr. Norberto Pilar Prof. Paulo Tavares de Castro Prof. Pedro Guedes de Oliveira Prof. Pedro Lynce de Faria Eng.º Pedro Pontes Gen. Pelágio Manuel Castelo Branco Eng.º Ricardo da Cruz Filipe Prof. Ricardo de Oliveira Eng.º Rodrigo de Sande e Lemos Prof. R. Salcedo Dr. Rui Chanceller de Machete Eng.º Rui Manuel Correia Eng.º Rui Neves Eng.º Rui Sabino Marques Prof. Sebastião Feyo de Azevedo Prof. Sérgio Machado dos Santos Eng.º Vasco Coucello Dr. Vasco de Mello E) National Conference Committee Prof. Luís Valadares Tavares, (Presidente) Eng.º António Alfaiate Prof. João Ferreira de Almeida Prof. João Ferreira do Amaral Eng.º Carlos Henggeler Antunes Eng.º Jaime Melo Baptista Dr. Viana Baptista Eng.º João Bártolo Dr. Pereira Bastos Dr. F. Sarsfield Cabral Prof. João Caraça Dr. António Carrapatoso Profª Graça Carvalho Prof. Augusto Casaca Eng.º Mário Lino Correia Eng.º Ricardo Cruz Filipe Prof. Manuel Heitor Prof. Machado Jorge Eng.º Luís Lapão Doutor Manuel Laranja Prof. Altamiro Machado Prof. Virgílio Machado Dr. Rui Machete Prof. Luís Magalhães Dr. Carlos Magno Prof. Abel Mateus Dr. Pedro Norton de Matos Eng.º Maximiano Martins Prof. Carlos Morais Eng.º Alberto Moreno Dr. Henrique Neto Dr. Luís Neto Prof. Maranha das Neves Eng.º Paulo Nordeste Prof. Clemente Pedro Nunes Prof. Luís Valente de Oliveira Prof. Ricardo Oliveira Dr. Manuel João Pereira Dr. Horácio Periquito Prof. Gouvêa Portela Prof. Ramôa Ribeiro Prof. António Guimarães Rodrigues Eng.º Eduardo Lopes Rodrigues Profª Maria João Rodrigues Profª Maria de Lurdes Rodrigues Prof. Carlos Salema Eng.º Albertino Santana Prof. Marques dos Santos Dr. Nicolau Santos Eng.º Pedro Serra Prof. Gomes da Silva Eng.º Rui Correia Eng.º João Cravinho Prof. José Soeiro Ferreira 67
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