PROCESSO SELETIVO MESTRADO PROFISSIONALEM PODER LEGISLATIVO PROVA DE PROFICIÊNCIA EM INGLÊS PART A Read the text below and decide accordingly on whether statements numbers 01 to 20 are true (T) or false (F). 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Despite the voluminous literature on the democratic peace that suggests that democracies do not typically initiate conflicts against one another, precisely how this process works has remained largely opaque. The explanation for this dearth of theory about the underlying mechanism behind the democratic peace can be attributed in part to the origins of the recent literature on the subject. While scholars regularly trace the idea of a peace between democracies to Kant ([1795] 1983), the lineage of the current literature is actually more appropriately traced to the echoes of the behavioral revolution that fundamentally shifted empirical research in international relations in the 1960s and 1970s. Drawing on the first broad datasets of international conflict, a number of scholars quickly observed the absence of conflict between democratic states in their statistical models (e.g. Rummel 1979; Babst 1972; Singer and Small 1972). However, this legacy has meant that the democratic peace has had difficulty progressing – so much so that some have described it as an empirical regularity in search of an explanation (Ray 2000). Indeed, the mechanisms identified by this literature by and large consist of post-hoc explanations for empirical findings. In response, we have presented a more robust, deductive theory of democratic constraint and generated finding that specifically address the expectations that arise from it. It is worth emphasizing that our findings indicate a monadic democratic peace (i.e. democracy with the attributes we identify fight less overall) rather than a dyadic peace (i.e. democracies do not fight each other). This is a substantial departure from the existing literature, which has generally only found empirical support for the more limited dyadic proposition. Given that we find support for our key predictions, this underlines the potential importance of these arguments for academics and policymakers alike. Once we recognize the diversity of democratic institutions we can easily reconcile the general dearth of evidence of uniquely pacific democratic conflict behavior at the monadic level with the recurrent finding of a dyadic democratic peace. More specifically, we find that robust political opposition and widespread access to the mass media can, in tandem, go a long way toward accounting for the longstanding empirical observation that democracies rarely go to war against one another The conditional argument we present and test here suggest the need for more finely honed policies that move beyond a single-minded focus on democratization. Specifically, our findings indicate that those looking to institute executive constraint and the positive international externalities that come with it should be promoting specific institutional attributes rather than democracy in any form. This means a much more mundane promotion of robust media and electoral institutions. While such policies may be less dramatic than images of ink-stained thumbs raised in the air signifying a CENTRO DE FORMAÇÃO, TREINAMENTO E APERFEIÇOAMENTO –1– 40 45 50 55 60 65 nation’s first free election, they may prove more effective in producing the very pacific foreign policy behavior that democratic leaders – especially U.S. presidents – routinely cite as a primary justification for promoting democracy abroad. Nonetheless, while policymakers rarely cite factors like the number of parties or media access in speeches about promoting democracy, when the proverbial rubber meets the road, they often advocate that new democracies choose consociational constitutions. A case in point is Iraq. While American leaders publicly focused on the “triumph” of free elections, they more quietly pushed Iraq to adopt a multi-party, consociational system. They did so not in anticipation of any additional pacifying effect on Iraqi foreign policy owing to multipartism (as per our argument here). Rather, they viewed consociationalism as necessary to create sufficient domestic political buy-in among the disparate stakeholders in Iraq. In other words, the United States advocated a multiparty system for Iraq’s domestic political purposes. Yet our findings suggest that this choice may potentially produce an important unintended positive foreign policy externality. Nonetheless, U.S. advocacy of a multi-party system is perhaps surprising, and arguably ironic, since the United States is itself the archetypal two-party democracy. Such a system, if successfully institutionalized, could produce the very sort of robust political opposition that we argue underpins, along with mass access to media, the pacific behavior of some democracies. Of course, it remains an open question whether Iraq will successfully institutionalize its nascent democratic institutions. Regardless, our findings suggest an important, yet largely overlooked, mechanism through which the media and electoral institutions shape states’ conflict behavior. That is, our findings suggest that the nature of a state’s information generation and transmission mechanisms, in interaction, importantly influence democratic constraint. The implication is that not all democracies are alike, or equally likely to participate in any Kantian pacific federation. Only by recognizing the significant diversity of democratic institutions might the empirical observation of a democratic peace finally hope to meet its theoretical match. Adapted from: BAUM, M., POTTER, P., Information, Popular Constraint, and the Democratic Peace. Faculty Research Working Paper Series. Harvard Kennedy School. March 2014. Retrieved on 3rd April 2014. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Tipicamente, democracias não iniciam conflitos umas contra as outras, apesar do escasso volume de literatura sobre esse assunto. A explicação prática sobre os mecanismos que fundamentam a paz democrática podem ser atribuídos à consagrada literatura sobre o assunto. A linhagem da literatura atual é mais adequadamente ligada à revolução comportamental que mudou a pesquisa empírica em relações internacionais na década de 1960 e 1970. Baseados num amplo conjunto de dados sobre conflitos internacionais, pesquisadores observaram a ausência de conflitos entre estados democráticos nos seus modelos estatísticos. A paz democrática vem progredindo sem dificuldades, tanto que alguns pesquisadores a descrevem como uma regularidade empírica. Os autores apresentam uma teoria mais robusta e dedutiva sobre a restrição democrática que trata mais especificamente das CENTRO DE FORMAÇÃO, TREINAMENTO E APERFEIÇOAMENTO –2– 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. expectativas dela advindas. Vale a pena enfatizar que os resultados encontrados pelos autores indicam um modelo de paz monádico em detrimento a um modelo de paz diádico. Apesar de encontrarem apoio para suas principais previsões, a potencial importância dos seus argumentos é tangencial tanto para acadêmicos quanto para políticos. Depois de reconhecer a diversidade das instituições democráticas, é impossível reconciliar as evidências de paz democrática no nível monádico apenas com a informação recorrente da paz democrática do tipo diádico. Os autores destacam que oposição política robusta e amplo acesso aos meios de comunicação de massa podem, de maneira geral, ser os responsáveis pela observação empírica de que as democracias raramente fazem guerra umas contra as outras. Enquanto políticos raramente citam fatores como o número de partidos ou o acesso aos meios de comunicação para promover a democracia, eles geralmente defendem que novas democracias devem adotar constituições conciliatórias. Enquanto os líderes dos Estados Unidos destacam publicamente o triunfo (as vantagens) de eleições livres, mais discretamente eles pressionam o Iraque a adotar um sistema multipartidário conciliatório. Contrariamente, líderes dos Estados Unidos veem a abordagem conciliatória como desnecessária para criar a suficiente atuação política entre os diferentes participantes políticos na nova democracia do Iraque. Os Estados Unidos defendem um sistema multipartidário para o sistema político doméstico do Iraque. Os estudos dos autores do texto sugerem que esta escolha pode potencialmente produzir uma externalidade de política externa positiva. A defesa, por parte dos Estados Unidos, de um sistema multipartidário não é surpreendente nem irônico, já que o próprio sistema norte-americano é ele mesmo baseado em um arquétipo de democracia bipartidária. O sistema bipartidário, se institucionalizado com sucesso no Iraque, poderia produzir um tipo de oposição política robusta que poderia modelar o comportamento pacífico típico das democracias ocidentais. Ainda permanece aberto a questionamentos se o Iraque conseguirá institucionalizar de maneira exitosa suas instituições democráticas. De toda maneira, os resultados das pesquisas sugerem um importante mecanismo por meio do qual a mídia e as instituições eleitorais modelam o comportamento dos estados em relação à administração de conflitos. Os resultados das pesquisas dos autores sugerem que a natureza da geração e transmissão de informação dos Estados influenciam a CENTRO DE FORMAÇÃO, TREINAMENTO E APERFEIÇOAMENTO –3– 19. 20. limitação democrática. A implicação dos resultados das pesquisas dos autores revela que nem todas as democracias são susceptíveis a participarem de qualquer tipo de federação pacífica kantiana. Apenas pelo reconhecimento da diversidade das instituições democráticas é que a observação empírica da paz democrática pode finalmente ter alguma esperança de encontrar sua contraparte teórica. PART B Leia os textos I a IV e responda as questões 1 a 20 que se seguem: I - “Criteria for a democratic process. Within the enormous and often impenetrable thicket of ideas about democracy, is it possible to identify some criteria that a process for governing an association would have to meet in order to satisfy the requirement that all the members are equally entitled to participate in the association’s decisions about its policies? There are, I believe, at least five such standards. Effective participation. Before a policy is adopted by the association, all the members must have equal and effective opportunities for making their views known to the other members as to what the policy should do. Voting equality. When the moment arrives at which the decision about a policy will finally be made, every member must have an equal and effective opportunity to vote, and all votes must be counted as equal. Enlightened understanding. Within reasonable limits as to time, each member must have equal and effective opportunities for learning about the relevant alternative policies and their likely consequences. Control of the agenda. The members must have the exclusive opportunity to decide how and, if they choose, what matters are to be placed on the agenda. Thus the democratic process required by the three preceding criteria is never closed. The policies of the association are always open to change by the members, if they so choose. Inclusion of adults. All, or at any rate most, adult permanent residents should have the full rights of citizens that are implied by the first four criteria. Before the twentieth century this criterion was unacceptable to most advocates of democracy. To justify it, it will require us to examine why we should treat others as our political equals” DAHL, R. A., On Democracy. Yale University Press. New Haven. 1998, p 37-38 CENTRO DE FORMAÇÃO, TREINAMENTO E APERFEIÇOAMENTO –4– 1. Quais são os critérios que o autor sugere para delimitar o conceito de democracia? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 2. O que o autor diz sobre o primeiro critério para delimitar o conceito de democracia? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 3. O que o autor diz sobre o segundo critério para delimitar o conceito de democracia? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ CENTRO DE FORMAÇÃO, TREINAMENTO E APERFEIÇOAMENTO –5– __________________________________________________________________ 4. O que o autor diz sobre o terceiro critério para delimitar o conceito de democracia? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 5. O que o autor diz sobre o quarto critério para delimitar o conceito de democracia? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 6. O que o autor diz sobre o quinto critério para delimitar o conceito de democracia? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ CENTRO DE FORMAÇÃO, TREINAMENTO E APERFEIÇOAMENTO –6– __________________________________________________________________ III - With its comprehensive and painstaking analysis of European politics today, this substantial textbook adventurously tries to overcome the restrictions typical of its genre. The author merits praise for both good workmanship and an interpretive approach that is unusually provocative. The risk thus taken provides a text that is far more interesting, informative, and stimulating than is common. There are two main substantive respects in which the fresh and more revelatory approach succeeds, and two others in which it fails. First, the comparative analysis comes with candid recognition that political change is both constant and more important than mere territorial difference. Due consideration is given therefore to the irreversible dissolution of behavioral and structural patterns previously seen as determinants of European politics before the 1980s. The second originality is to treat European integration as a pervasive and crucial factor in the same transformative process, reflecting the decline of even the major European states as world actors, and challenging their stubborn pretensions to internal sovereignty. This offers students a perspective far more realistic and durable than usual. The gamble loses, when the author proves too shy to go far enough in these wellchosen directions. Having acknowledged that something is seriously wrong with the state-centred model endemic to comparative politics, most of his analysis strenuously treats all states as more or less equally significant, despite the huge variation in practice in both their power and their longevity, mainly related to size. While this approach does serve to emphasise the diversity of European state politics (making it more comprehensible for Americans especially), it tends to weaken the well-judged emphasis on secular trends that cross state boundaries almost indiscriminately. Moreover, though sometimes aptly supported, as in a well-judged reference to the ‘Americanisation’ of politics within European states, this line of argument too often becomes one-sided, even platitudinous. Thus there is neither challenge to, nor evidence for, the conventional neo-liberal doctrine that by the 1970s: ‘The huge welfare states in most advanced countries were absorbing funds and creating stagnation in the national economies’ (p. 233). The book was finished just in time to take into account the outbreak of global financial crisis in 2008, but not its consequences. A more critical admission of the irresponsibility and inefficiency of the private sector, which is now exposed for all to see, would have made the book less prone to be dated by the time it was published. Adapted from: COOMBES, D. 2011University of Limerick. Book review: Contemporary European Politics: A Comparative Introduction by José M. Magone. Abingdon: Routledge, 2011. pp. 651. Retrieved on 05th April 2014. CENTRO DE FORMAÇÃO, TREINAMENTO E APERFEIÇOAMENTO –7– 7. Como o autor avalia a obra de Magone nas cinco primeiras linhas do texto? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 8. Segundo o autor, qual é o primeiro dos dois principais aspectos substantivos em que a abordagem de Magone é mais reveladora e bem-sucedida? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 9. Segundo o autor, qual é o segundo dos dois principais aspectos substantivos em que a abordagem de Magone é mais reveladora e bem-sucedida? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ CENTRO DE FORMAÇÃO, TREINAMENTO E APERFEIÇOAMENTO –8– 10. Qual evento de destaque de 2008 está incluído no livro de Magone? Quais as implicações da análise desse evento para a avaliação geral da obra? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ IV - “Because party leadership is interested in maintaining (or moving) the party ideal point as close as possible to its own, leaders might want to be strategic about how they treat potential in- and out switchers. The possibility that party switchers could affect both party size and party ideal points (either prejudicially or beneficially from the perspective of leadership) suggests four hypotheses H1 – Party leaders should try to attract switchers who would help move party positions closer to their own, because aligned inswitchers would increase the leader’s leverage vis-à-vis the the party as a whole; H2 – Leaders should encourage outswitching by member who, by virtue of their own preferences and contrary to the preferences of most of their copartisans, constrain leaders from moving their party in desired ways; H3 – to the extent that inswitchers improve a party’s legislative bargaining position (because they increase the party’s seat share and hence their legislative weight) leadership should want to attract inswitchers even if they have no effect on the party ideal point. By the same token, leadership should seek to discourage balanced outswitching; H4 – party positions are independent from the position of individual members, including leaders and/or whips, and should not change with changes in legislative membership. Adapted from: HELLER, W. B. & MERSHON, C. Legislators Preferences, Party Desires. Political Parties and Legislative Party Switching. Edited by William B. Heller and Carol Mershon. Palgrave Macmillan, New York. 2009, p 181. CENTRO DE FORMAÇÃO, TREINAMENTO E APERFEIÇOAMENTO –9– 11. Heller e Mershon apresentam quatro hipóteses sobre lideranças e fidelidade partidária. Qual é a primeira delas? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 12. Heller e Mershon apresentam quatro hipóteses sobre lideranças e fidelidade partidária. Qual é a segunda delas? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 13. Heller e Mershon apresentam quatro hipóteses sobre lideranças e fidelidade partidária. Qual é a terceira delas? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ CENTRO DE FORMAÇÃO, TREINAMENTO E APERFEIÇOAMENTO – 10 – __________________________________________________________________ 14. Heller e Mershon apresentam quatro hipóteses sobre lideranças e fidelidade partidária. Qual é a quarta delas? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ IV. BURNELL, P. Democracy, democratization and climate change: complex As colunas da tabela são contadas da esquerda para a direita: Independent variable (1ª Coluna) e Dependent variable (4ªColuna) relationships. Democratization, 19:5, 813-842, DOI: 10.1080/13510347.2012.709684 CENTRO DE FORMAÇÃO, TREINAMENTO E APERFEIÇOAMENTO – 11 – 15. Quais são as quatro variáveis independentes apresentadas por Burnell? (Primeira coluna da tabela). __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 16. Burnell apresenta oito variáveis intervenientes. Quais são as quatro primeiras? (segunda coluna da tabela) __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 17. Burnell apresenta oito variáveis intervenientes. Quais são as três penúltimas? (As três primeiras da terceira coluna) __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ CENTRO DE FORMAÇÃO, TREINAMENTO E APERFEIÇOAMENTO – 12 – __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 18. Burnell apresenta oito variáveis intervenientes. Qual é a última delas? (A última da terceira coluna) __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 19. Quais são as quatro variáveis dependentes apresentadas por Burnell? (Quarta coluna da tabela) __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 20. O que Burnell apresenta na nota / observação (Notes) da tabela acima referida? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ CENTRO DE FORMAÇÃO, TREINAMENTO E APERFEIÇOAMENTO – 13 – __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ CENTRO DE FORMAÇÃO, TREINAMENTO E APERFEIÇOAMENTO – 14 –