Innovations for Poverty Alleviation and Social
Mobility
Marcelo Neri
Strategic Affairs (SAE/PR) and EPGE/FGV
CEDLA – University of Amsterdam
Brazil as Innovator
November, 2014
Poverty Alleviation and Social Mobility
• Broadview on Brazilian Progress: The Middle Path
• Track Record from Household Surveys (also Recent
Changes) and Its Causes
- Prosperity & Equity
- Sustainability (productivity, education & risk)
- Sensibility (perceptions & protests)
• Public Policies Challenges and Lessons Learned:
- Broader Prospective Agenda
- Bolsa Família 3.0
% Population with Income
Below U$ 1.25 per day PPP
Brazilian Per Capita GDP (PPP) was
93.7% of the World GDP in 2012
Brazilian Per capita GDP PPP has
grown 3.5% against 3.6% of the
world between 2002 e 2012
Brazil:
Middle of
the World
Source: IPEA / SAE from PNUD
% Population with Income
Below U$ 1.25 per day PPP
A World
within
Brazil
Source: SAE from the Demographic Census/IBGE
What explains + Social Inclusion? Statistical stability last year
Growth or + Equity? 2001-2013 But 50% faster than MDG in
last 2 years
1st
MDG: Extreme Poverty Line (U$S
1,25 a day PPP) fell 56% in 12 years
Component that
Explains
Income growth
Brazil
Main
Target
Proportion of Extremelly Poor
% of Total Fall (56%)
46,7%
The Middle Path
Inequality Fall
53,3%
Total
100%
Source: IPEA/SAE from PNAD/IBGE microdata
Changes in Income Distribution 2001 -2013
Cumulative Growth Rate of Per Capita Income by Vintiles 2001-2013(%)
120%
113% 115% 112%
Income of the 5% poorest has
grown 415% faster than the
5% richest
106% 104%
97%
Cumulative Growth (%)
100%
94% 92%
87% 84%
82%
80%
73%
69%
63%
60%
58%
52%
47%
39%
40%
33%
27%
20%
0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
5%
poorest
Soucre: IPEA/SAE from PNAD/IBGE microdata
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Vintiles of Household Income - per capita
16
17
18
19
20
5%
richest
Shared Prosperity (2001-13) (Mean and 40% Poorest)
Determinants of the Gains in Real Per Capita Prosperity from 2001 and 2013
in annual percentage points
0,07 e 0,82
Other
3,26 e 5,80
Total Effect
Includes Bolsa
Família
Labor
2,47 e 3,86
0,76 e 1,16
Social Security
& BPC
0,20 e -0,39
Quantity = Participation Rate
+ Unemployment + Hours
0,54 e 1,05
Value of Education
Wages and Profits
1,73 e 3,21
Educational Bonus
Horizontal Inequality - Growth Rate Excluded Groups Income
Annual Growth Rate of Per Capita Household Income - 2001 to 2013
6.9%
7%
5.7%
6%
5.0%
5%
4.7%
4.8%
4.5%
3.8%
4%
3.7%
3.3%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Total
Northeast
Source: SAE from PNAD/IBGE microdata
Rural
10 or + 0 to 6 years
Residents
of Age
Blacks
Head- 0
Years of
Schooling
HeadDomestic
Servant
HeadInformal
Worker
Inequality Within Municipalities
Gini Index of Per Capita Income
by Municipality - 2000
2000
Source: Demographic Census/IBGE microdata
Inequality Within Municipalities
Gini Index of Per Capita Income
by Municipality - 2010
In the 2000s Inequality
fell in 83,3% of LACs
and in 39,2% of other
91 world countries
2010
Inequality fell in 80%
of the 5500 Brazilian
Municipalities
Source: Demographic Census/IBGE microdata
Latin America Latina last 3 Decades
Long Run Perspective
Inequality of Per Capita Income (Gini)
62
0.607
6
0.592
0.589
0.581
Inequality (Gini)
0,58
0,56
0,54
0.560
0.543
0.535
Falling inequality in
Brazil but still the 18th
highest in 155 countries
0.523
0,52
0,5
0,48
1960
1970
1979
1990
2001
2007
Year
Source: CPS;FGV from PNAD, PME and Census / IBGE microdata and Langoni (1973)
2009
2013
Is Inequality Still Falling ?
And in Latin America?
Brazilian Gini is now
stable?
2011
2012
2013
0,5272
0,5243#
0,5229#
Cornia (2014) on CEDLAS & CEPAL data for 11 countries with complete data for 2008-12, i.e.: Argentina, Bolivia,
Brazil, Colombia, CostaRica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico, Panama, Peru and Uruguay. The dotted line includes
Uruguay (which recorded a higher-than-average Gini drop over 2008-12. The solid lines excludes it.
Source: PNAD/IBGE microdata # Not a statistically significant change with respect to 2011
Income Inequality
Has labor income inequality stopped falling?
GINI of Per Capita Labor Income*
Inequality Index, March 2002 to July 2014 (October 2014)
0.64
0.62
0.60
0.58
Between 2011 and 2013 had a
slower pace but reaccelerates after
0.56
0.54
2002
(Mar.)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
October 14
- 0,5442
2009
2010
2011
Source: IPEA/SAE from PME/IBGE (2002-2014) microdata *the table only covers SP, RJ, BH and Recife
*Per Capita Household Labor Income - 15 to 65 Years
2012
2013
2014
(Jun.)
How much did it grow?
Prosperity
Equality
GDP X Mean Income PNAD X Median Income PNAD X 10% Ritchest
Real Per Capita 2003 = 100
200
180
186.8
Real differences are explained by the use
of different deflators, in nominal terms
mean growth rates are similar.
Same Story in 2013.
178.4
160
151.7
140
136.0
127.8
120
100
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: SAE from PNAD/IBGE microdata and National Accounting/IBGE
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
157.0
140.0
129.6
2013
Ranking Latin America
Annual Growth 2003-12
Per Capita HH Income
1 Argentina
5,50%
20%
60%
40% a
2 Colombia
4,68%
a
a
20% + TOTAL
60%
3
Brasil
4,60%
40 %
80%
4
Perú
4,56%
5
Uruguay
4,42%
4,41 4,44 3,94 3,11 3,48
6
Bolivia*
3,96%
7
Ecuador
3,79%
8
Panamá
2,77%
9,11 8,35 7,16 7,26 7,66
9
Paraguay
2,74%
10 Costa Rica
2,72%
11
Chile*
2,48%
6,73 6,38 5,54 5,17 5,55 12
México
1,08%
13 El Salvador
1,03%
14
Hondura
0,94%
5,77 5,06 3,96 2,36 3,3
Rep.
15 Dominicana
-0,87%
16 Nicaragua*
-1,52%
17 Guatemala*
-1,84%
The New Decade – HH Per Capita Income
Growth by Quintiles
20% -
20122013
1,37
20112012
11,6
20112013
6,37
20012013
6,41
Source: PNAD/IBGE microdata
Source: CEDLAS microdata
Growth
2010 • 2013 • 2014
Cunnulative Growth Rate by Percentiles – Quantile Regression
20%
17.8%
14.7%
15%
13.7%
12.0%
9.0%
10%
8.0%
5%
0%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
Source: IPEA/SAE from PME/IBGE (2002-2014) microdata *the table only covers SP, RJ, BH and Recife
*Per Capita Household Labor Income - 15 to 65 Years
85%
95%
Source: SAE from PME/IBGE microdata (2002-2014)
*Per Capita Household Labor Income – 15 to 65 Years No Income Imputation
Aug- 14
October14
May - 14
Jan - 14
Sep - 13
3,64%
3.88%
Median
6.43%
6.80%
6.95%
7.27%
6.80%
6.1%
5.7%
5.05%
4.35%
4.65%
4,26%
3.61%
3.03%
2.28%
1.92%
4.7%
4.31%
3.63%
3.41%
3.13%
2.42%
1.83%
1.28%
0.88%
3.43%
Mean
May - 13
Aug- 14
October14
Jan - 13
May - 14
Jan - 14
Sep - 13
May - 13
-0.54%
Jan - 13
Real Per Capita Income Growth
12 months PME
Will November 2014
be “Dilma’s Real”?
Idiossincratic Risk of
Per Capita Labor Income
Risk of Falling X Opportunity to Rise
Across the Median
The risk of crossing the median in an upward direction has never been so high: 27% of the people who
were below the median crossed it in 2012/2013 – inversion of the risks of falling/rising 10 years later
27.13
26.34
24.86
13.19
13.31
2008/
2009
13.79
2007/
2008
13.57
13.71
19.45
13.69
2005/
2006
20.12
17.79
2004/
2005
12.73
16.80
16.42
2003/
2004
15
17.58
17.03
18.81
2002/
2003
20
14.41
16.01
25
23.10
26.24
30
2010/
2011
2011/
2012
2012/
2013
10
5
2006/
2007
Source: IPEA/SAE from PME/IBGE longitudinal microdata
2009/
2010
New Middle Class: Evolution of
Economic Classes Pyramid
2003 - 2013
Classes A to E
AB Classes
INCREASED
12.5
Mi
20.7 Mil
26.3 Mil
13.8 Mil
Classes AB
67.8 Mil
Classe C
97.8 Mil
C Class
INCREASED
44.7
Mi
98.8 Mil
62 Mil
75 Mil
Classes DE
2003
Fonte: CPS/FGV e SAE/PR a partir dos microdados da PNAD/IBGE
2009
112.5 Mil
2013
More 4,3 mi in ABC classes in 2013
and plus 10 mi in 2012 and 2014
Evolution of ABC Classes
AB = Traditional Middle Class; C = New Middle Class
Log (share of middle class)= 16.9 - 3.2 Log(alienation)
R2=0.97
(28.5) (-23.3)
1993
2013 has the Lowest Alienation and Polarization levels in PNAD series
1995
2014 (forecast)
% Classe ABC 1993
13.01 - 28.32
28.32 - 43.63
43.63 - 58.93
58.93 - 74.24
74.24 - 89.55
% Classe ABC 1995
13.01 - 28.32
28.32 - 43.63
43.63 - 58.93
58.93 - 74.24
74.24 - 89.55
2003
% Classe ABC 2003
13.01 - 28.32
28.32 - 43.63
43.63 - 58.93
58.93 - 74.24
74.24 - 89.55
2009
% Classe ABC 2009
13.01 - 28.32
28.32 - 43.63
43.63 - 58.93
58.93 - 74.24
74.24 - 89.55
Source: Ipea from PNAD/IBGE microdata
% Classe ABC 2014
13.01 - 28.32
28.32 - 43.63
43.63 - 58.93
58.93 - 74.24
74.24 - 89.55
1st Acquisition of Goods and Services
1st time acquiring goods or services: Among those who purchased it in the last 3 years
74.80%
80%
70%
64.57%
65.48%
60%
50%
40%
46.19%
33.61%
35.29%
37.21%
47.67%
49.49%
38.88%
30%
20%
10%
0%
*only takes into account the ones who adquired
the good or service in the last 3 years
Source: SAE designed questions in SECOM – Quarterly Public Perception Poll – July/2014
Inclusive Development?: Interactions
Equality
Sustainability (Assets)
Looking at the distribution among
Ability to maintain the standards of living
individuals and social groups of
achieved. Stocks of human,
income flows, stocks of assets and
environmental, physical , cultural
rights.
and social assets.
Prosperity (Growth)
Sensibility (Perceptions)
Growth in mean income and
consumption (not only GDP/National
The last dimension is subjective, based on
Accounts but also look to
people’s perception about the country,
Household Surveys data and PIT).
the public services and life quality.
Sustainability
Growth Gaps Between 2003 and 2013
Cummulative
Growth
Annual
Growth
HH Income per capita (PNAD)
58.4%
4.7%
GDP per capita
32.1%
2.8%
Gap 1
26.3%
1.9%
Labor Cost (PNAD)
46.0%
3.9%
Labor Productivity (GDP per Worker)
21.1%
1.9%
Gap 2
24.9%
2.0%
In Real Terms
Nota: Renda deflacionada com IPCA; PIB com deflator implícito do PIB.
Fonte: Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD/IBGE); Sistema de Contas Nacionais (SCN/IBGE).
1995 - 2013
Labor Cost (Income) and Labor Productivity (GDP per Worker)
135
130
Labor Cost
(Income)
125
1995=100
120
115
110
Produtividade
Labor do
Trabalho
Productivity
105
100
95
90
85
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sources: Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD e IPCA/IBGE); Sistema de Contas Nacionais (SCN/IBGE).
Gap Between Labor Cost (Income) and Labor Productivity
(GDP per Worker) in Nominal Terms 1995-2013
280
1995=100, Escala Log
560
Nominal Labor
Productivity
140
Nominal Labor
Cost (Income)
70
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: PIB nominal/ocupados (PIB nominal, SCN; ocupados, PNAD); Remuneração do trabalho/ocupado. (PNAD/IBGE).
2010
2011
2012
2013
25
HDI 2000
Human Development Index by Municipality
2000 - IPEA/FJP/PNUD
In 2000, 41%
of the
municipalities
presented
very low HDI
0,800 a 1
0,700 a 0,799
0,600 a 0,699
0,500 a 0,599
0,000 a 0,499
Source: Ipea/PNUD/FJP from Demographic Census/IBGE 2010 microdata.
Human Development Index by Municipality
2010 - IPEA/FJP/PNUD
HDI 2010
In 2010, 0.6%
of the
municipalities
presented very
low HDI
0,800 a 1
0,700 a 0,799
0,600 a 0,699
0,500 a 0,599
0,000 a 0,499
Source: Ipea/PNUD/FJP from Demographic Census/IBGE 2010 microdata.
HDI 2000
The Great Rio de Janeiro
Fonte: SAE/IPEA, PNUD, FJP a partir dos microdados do Censo Demográfico/IBGE
HDI 2010
The Great Rio de Janeiro
Fonte: SAE/IPEA, PNUD, FJP a partir dos microdados do Censo Demográfico/IBGE
Hong Kong
Finlândia
Coréia
Holanda
Liechtenstein
Japão
Canadá
Bélgica
Suíça
Macao
Austrália
Nova Zelândia
República Tcheca
Islândia
Dinamarca
França
Suécia
Áustria
Irlanda
Alemanha
República Eslovaca
Noruega
Luxemburgo
Hungria
Polônia
Espanha
Estados Unidos
Látvia
Rússia
Itália
Portugal
Grécia
Sérvia
Turquia
Uruguai
Tailândia
México
Indonésia
Tunísia
BRASIL
Mathematics
Profficiency
400
Source: Pisa/OECD.
Grade in Maths in PISA/OECD (2003)
600
500
356
300
200
100
0
20
10
0
-10
Austrália
Espanha
Liechtenstein
Irlanda
Estados Unidos
Luxemburgo
Noruega
Uruguai
Hungria
Canadá
Dinamarca
Bélgica
Holanda
França
República Eslovaca
República Tcheca
Austrália
Islândia
Nova Zelândia
Finlândia
Suécia
40
BRASIL
Tunísia
México
Polônia
Turquia
Portugal
Itália
Indonésia
Rússia
Sérvia
Coréia
Hong Kong
Macao
Alemanha
Tailândia
Grécia
Látvia
Suíça
Japão
Mathematics
Profficiency
-20
-30
-40
Source: Pisa/OECD.
Improvement in Maths in PISA/OECD (2003-2012)
35
30
Covarage of Basic
Goods and Services
Sustainability
Pop. with basic set of durable goods X
Pop. with basic set of public services
Conditions in Houses improved
+ than public services out
70
59.23
60
58.26
Growth (%)
50
40
51.14
46.60
44.43
40.58
30
28.23
20
10
0
Notes:
11.06
1992 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 2012
* = telephone (landline or mobile), color TV, stove with two burners or +, refrigerator, radio and washing machine
** = electricity, garbage collection, sewage (rede ou fossa ligada à rede), water (rede).
Source: Ipea/SAE from Pnad/IBGE microdata. Excluding rural areas of the North region (except Tocantins).
Sensibility
Demonstrations June 2013
Profile of Protesters
Dind’t
participate,
Disapproves
didn’t want to,
but approves
Participated
Didn’t
participate but
wanted to
31
37
46
50
Men
49%
37%
34%
32%
Until 4th grade completed
4%
18%
31%
45%
Incomplete or Complete
Tertiary Education
26%
16%
8%
5%
Receives Bolsa Família
19%
19%
24%
27%
Household Head Income R$
R$ 1,464
R$ 1,382
R$ 1,104
R$ 871
Total Household Income R$
R$ 2,836
R$ 2,544
R$ 1,802
R$ 1,722
Variables / Participation
Average Age
Source: IPEA 2013 microdata
Participation on the 2013 Demonstrations
Order of Importance of Explanatory Variables: Stepwise
Multinomial Ordered Logit Model
Variables
Coefficient
p-value
Odds Ratio
1
2
3
4
Internet as Main Source Information
Northeast
Head or Spouse
Work
0.9893
-0.736
-0.4172
0.2441
<.0001
<.0001
0.0015
0.009
2.69
0.48
0.66
1.28
5
6
7
8
9
Incomes of the poorest improved +
Delay in Public Services Bill
15-29 years
30-59 years
Is against Bolsa Familia
0.3431
0.2371
0.7224
0.3755
0.2638
0.0001
0.009
<.0001
0.0019
0.0124
1.41
1.27
2.06
1.46
1.30
10
Has Private Health Insurance
0.192
0.0404
1.21
11
Confederations Cup City Host
0.443
0.0027
1.56
12
13
Central-West
Uses bus + than 3 times a week
-0.4422
0.2249
0.0555
0.0464
0.64
1.25
Source: IPEA 2013 microdata
Future Life Satisfaction and Demonstrations
Demonstrations
Dind’t participate,
didn’t want to, but
approves
Disapproves
Variables / Participation
Participated
Didn’t participate
but wanted to
Happiness in 5 Years
(April 2013)
Happiness in 5 Years
(August 2013)
Difference
8,19
8,54
8,42
8,21
8,69
8,49
8,26
7,75
0,51
-0,05
-0,16
-0,46
Variables / Participation
Participated
Didn’t participate
but wanted to
Dind’t participate,
didn’t want to, but
approves
Disapproves
Happiness in 5 Years
(August 2013)
Happiness in 5 Years
(May 2014)
Difference
8,69
8,49
8,26
7,75
8,17
8,16
8,37
8,36
- 0,52
- 0,33
0,11
0,61
Source: microdata IPEA, 2013, 2014.
Future Happiness
Life Satisfaction in 5 years – 2015
Brazil had the highest expected life satisfaction: 8.64 on a 0 to 10 scale
Felicidade Futura ( 2015)
2.8 - 4
4 - 5.19
5.19 - 6.39
6.39 - 7.58
7.58 - 8.78
No Data
Brazil is nine consecutive times the first in the World ranking of Future Happiness 5 years ahead
2013
Brasil
8,8
1
2012
2011
8,72 1
8,81 1
2010
8,64
2009
1
8,66
2008
1
8,68
The Country of the Future?
Source: Gallup World Poll microdata
2007
1
2006
8,44 1 8,78
Total Mean
1
8,69
Geography of Happiness
Satisfaction in 5 Years
2018 as seen from 2013
Individual
8.46
0–4
4 – 5.19
5.19 – 6.39
6.39 – 7.58
7.58 or more
0–4
4 – 5.19
Nation
6.8
Source : IPEA 2013
5.19 – 6.39
6.39 – 7.58
7.58 or more
Quite a Few Challenges: SAE Agenda
• Macro: Productivity and Savings
• Meso: Quality of Regular and Technical Education
• Population : Immigration, Youth (Aspirations) and Early Childhood
• Other Areas of SAE: Cybernetic Security and Climate Adaptation
• Integrated Policies : Poor, Vulnerable and New Middle Class
Bolsa Familia 3.0
The Next Generation of Conditional
Cash Transfers (CCTs)
Outline
• Results (ends)
• Channels (means)
• Upgrades
Sensibility
Happiness: Social Transfers and
Changes in Life Satisfaction
“The Bolsa Família beneficiaries were those with lowest grade of past happiness
(5 years before), reflecting the higher poverty among the program beneficiaries”
Bolsa Família beneficiaries had the biggest jump 29.9% vs. 18.1% of the total population
leading to more equity in present life satisfaction”
10
9
Past X Present Happiness
“Present happiness is closer between beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries”
Source: IPEA October 2012
8
7.04
7
6
5.96
6.99
6.19
6.25
5.41
5
6.86
5.28
4
3
2
1
0
Total
Social Security
Unemployment Insurance
Bolsa Família
“Comparing similar people Bolsa Família is associated with gains in present life satisfaction of
*Vis a vis non-beneficiaries, does not imply causality
0.41 points compared to past life satisfaction*.”
Bolsa Família Impact on Income Inequality
Equality
Bolsa Familia covers 25% of Brazilian Population at a cost of 0,5% of GDP
Without Bolsa Familia Extreme Poverty would rise 36%
The concentration curve of the Bolsa Família differs from other sources of income
1.00
Total
= Each R$ generates more Equality
per capita
Income
Bolsa Família
Cumulative Income
0.80
BPC
Poverty
0.60
Labor
0.40
Other incomes
Social Security
0.20
0.00
0.00
Source: SAE from microdata of PNAD/IBGE
Cumulative Population
1.00
Labor
Social Security
BPC
Bolsa Família
Other Incomes
Total per capita Income
Which source of income (program)
contributed the most to growth?
Contribution of Income Sources to Growth by Income Groups in annual percentage points.
2001-12
2001
- 2012
Labor
Mean
40% Poorest 5% Richest
10% Poorest
2.75
4.27
1.99
2.97
Bolsa Família 0.10
0.83
0.00
3.29
0.06
0.28
-0.06
0.16
0.74
0.89
0.32
0.23
0.00
3.64
0.11
6.38
-0.02
2.23
0.14
6.80
BPC
Social
Security
Other
Total
At this growth pace, it would take 31,5 years at this rate for the 5% richest
to double its income against 10,5 years for the 10% poorest. Source: SAE from PNAD/IBGE
Prosperity
Social Accounting Matrix and (MCS) the Circular Flow of
Income obtained with the expansion of a cash transfer
Leaks
Capital
Account
Transfer
Indirect Effects
Direct Effect
Family
income
Production
Income
from
Factors
Indirect Taxes
Imports of goods and services
Direct Taxes
Government
Rest of the
World
Prosperity
Multiplier Effects of social transfers on:
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Total
Bolsa Familia
1.78
BPC
1.19
Unemployment
Insurance
1.06
Wage bonus
1.06
Public Pensions
0.53
Social Security
0.52
Conservative Estimates:
And there is also
Impact of Liquidity
- Ribas (2014)
0.39
FGTS
0
1.70
Multipliers
Bolsa Família Program (BFP)
Continuous Cash Benefit (BPC)
Unemployment Insurance (SegDesem)
Wage bonus
Source: Neri, Vaz e Ferreira (2013) from SAM 2009
Private sector pensions (RGPS)
Public servants’ pensions (RPPS)
Severance Fund Formal Employment (FGTS)
Bolsa Família Channels to Overcome Poverty (Means Approach)
Microcredit &
Vocational
Education
CONDITIONALITIES
DEMAND FOR
EDUCATION AND HEALTH
PRODUCTIVE
INCLUSION
INCOME GENERATION
Productivity
MONETARY
TRANSFERS
DIRECT
EFFECT
FAMILY
BUDGET
CASH IN THE HAND
OF MOTHERS
OVERCOMING
POVERTY
TRANSPORTATION
HEALTH
SCHOOLS
(EARLY CHILDHOOD)
DIRECT
EFFECT
WELL-BEING
EXTERNAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
SUPPLY OF PUBLIC
SERVICES
INTERNAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
(HOUSEHOLD)
LEVERAGE
OPPORTUNITIES AND
SMOOTH SHOCKS
Decent Markets
CONSUMER
PROTECTION,
FINANCIAL EDUCATION
SEWAGE
CREDIT,
INSURANCE
AND SAVINGS
HOUSING
CISTERNS
Per capita family Income (U$)
Permanent Income
Complementation
Poverty Line
Benefits variable across families:
Poorer get higher benefits
US$ 2 PPP day
Poverty Gap
Extreme Poverty Line
BF US$ 1,25 PPP day
0
5
10
Population
Permanent Income Estimate: using Administrative Records (CadÚnico) info:
Education all HH members, Housing & Public Services coverage, other benefits etc...
Identifies who is chronically poor, and not who says is poor
15
Inovation on Payment Systems
• Social Federalism: Role of the States and City
Complements to Federal Bolsa Família:
Children and Youth (Add Forces & Divide Labor to Multiply Results and to
Make a Difference) – How to engage poorer States?
• To broaden the scope of actions it is natural to use the framework of low
formal earnings subsidies (Abono Salarial between 1 and 2 minimum
wages) and transition rules such as those in RMI (Revenu minimum
d’insertion)
• Use of International References (MDGs) (*1,25 & 2 U$S a day) - Poverty Line
and Elegibility Criteria?
• Completes Income towards the Poverty Line (Uni or Multidimensional?)
• Estimated Permanent Income (Middle path).
`• Mothers Key Delivery Role & Active Search of Students Without Mother
Without Bolsa Familia Extreme Poverty would rise 36%
The Life Cycle of Poverty
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80
Without Bolsa Família
With Bolsa Família from 2011
Source: V National Report on the Millennium Development Goals.
Inovations in Conditionalities:
Constructs on top of Bolsa Família & Local Social Services structures
• Incentives to Students Performance
- Profficiency Performance Premium Primary Education
- Youth Savings Incentive Mechanisms
- Alignment Incentives (Teachers, Parents & Students)
• Parents Engagement (School Meetings on Saturdays)
• Early Childhood Education (Supply: Poor Kids are First in Line)
Monitoring child development in Rio
Communication
Gross Motor
Scale
510
milestones
Fine Motor
Impact of Daycare on
Mothers Labor
Earnings (R$ 181 monthly)
Problem Solving
Personal-Social
Deep Transformation?
• The Middle Path: Poverty=Inequality Reduction+Growth;
• Prosperity : Increase in Household income exceeds GDP
• Equity Is Inequality still falling? Growth For Everyone (PIT
too?) Housing Issues?
• Sustainability Structural Labor Ingredients – Improvement in HDI
(multidimensional inequality sensitive indicators change +). Quality of education
(Bad Picture, Good Movie)
• Sensibility: Protests, the Paradox of Polarization, the Political
Economy of Inequality Fall
The Brazil of household surveys has been improving more than the
Brazil of National Accounts Confirmation bias deriving from
macroeconomic challenges
Map of Public Use Database
Household Surveys Microdata
Administrative Records
PNAD (100,000 housedholds per year)
National Accounts IBGE (Hybrid)
Annual Cross-section (1976 -2012); IBGE
Incomes, Residential Capital
POF (48,000 families per year) 1974; 2002; 2008
PIT Personal Income Tax
25 million individuals; 2007 -2012
Details: Incomes, Spending and Taxes
Unified Register for Social
Programs – CadÚnico (60 milhões) MDS
Mapping
Mapping
CENSUS (18 million individuals) 1960 - 2010
IBGE, Long Run Income and Special Detailed Maps
RAIS - Registro Anual de Informações Sociais (Annual
Register of Social Information)
Formal Employment, Ministry of Labor and Employment ((MTE)
Monitoring
Maping and Monitoring
PME (36 mil dwellings month) 1980-2014, IBGE
CAGED Formal Employment MTE
Monthly Labor with a two month lag, 6 Metrocities,
Monthly with a two month lag
Brazil Social: References & Links
Shared Prosperity:
http://www.compaso.com.br/docs/PP_SharedProsperity_Final_PN
AD2013.pdf
Middle Class:
Portuguese:
http://issuu.com/sae.pr/docs/classem__dia_ebook
English:
http://www.compaso.com.br/docs/NCM_Neri_Sae_MiddleClass_E
NG_PNAD2013.pdf
http://www.cps.fgv.br/cps/livroncm/ &
http://www.sae.gov.br/site/?p=22297
Social Tensions:
http://www.compaso.com.br/docs/Social_tension_final.pdf
Pro Poor Growth:
http://www.cps.fgv.br/cps/pesquisas/Politicas_sociais_alunos/201
1/pdf/5PP_KakwaniNeriSonsdarticle.pdf
Income Policies:
http://www.fgv.br/cps/docs/acad/BF_Livro_Scanner.pdf
Deprivation:
http://www.compaso.com.br/docs/PP_inequality_relative_depriva
tion_and_social_class_Final.pdf
Social Transformations (portuguese – recent study)
www.compaso.com.br/docs/Neri_TransformacoesSociaisAteJulho
2014.pdf
(Marcelo Neri)
Bolsa Família Book
Executive Summary:
http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/140321_pbf_sum
ex_ingles.pdf
http://www.sae.gov.br/site/?p=22181
World Without Poverty
https://www.wwp.org.br/en
Human Development Map - Data Brazilian Cities
http://www.atlasbrasil.org.br/2013/en/
Report on MDGs
http://www.sae.gov.br/site/?p=23258
Social Targets:
http://www.cps.fgv.br/cps/pesquisas/Politicas_sociais_alunos/2010/2
0100512/PDF/BES_MetasSociais_NeriXerez_Teoria.pdf
BRICS:
http://www.ipea.gov.br/forumbrics/en/
Brazilian Microdata & Data
http://www.econ.puc-rio.br/datazoom/
www.ibge.gov.br
http://www.ipeadata.gov.br/
Thank you!
Brasil Social: Links & Referências
(Marcelo Neri)
Shared Prosperity:
Bolsa Família
http://www.compaso.com.br/docs/PP_SharedProsperity_Final_PN
AD2013.pdf
Livro:
http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/livros/livros/livro
_bolsafamilia_10anos.pdf
Sumário Executivo:
http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/140321_pbf_sum
ex_portugues.pdf
Classe Média:
Português:
http://issuu.com/sae.pr/docs/classem__dia_ebook
Inglês:
http://www.compaso.com.br/docs/NCM_Neri_Sae_MiddleClass_E
NG_PNAD2013.pdf
http://www.cps.fgv.br/cps/livroncm/ &
http://www.sae.gov.br/site/?p=22297
http://www.sae.gov.br/site/?p=22177
Mundo Sem Pobreza - WWP
https://www.wwp.org.br/
Transformações Sociais
Atlas do Desenvolvimento Humano Municipal
www.compaso.com.br/docs/Neri_TransformacoesSociaisAteJulho
2014.pdf
http://www.atlasbrasil.org.br/2013/
Relatório ODMs
Educação Profissional
http://issuu.com/sae.pr/docs/ebook_educa____o
http://www.sae.gov.br/site/?p=23262
Social Tensions:
http://www.cps.fgv.br/cps/pesquisas/Politicas_sociais_alunos/2010/2
0100512/PDF/BES_MetasSociais_NeriXerez_Teoria.pdf
http://www.compaso.com.br/docs/Social_tension_final.pdf
Pro Poor Growth:
http://www.cps.fgv.br/cps/pesquisas/Politicas_sociais_alunos/201
1/pdf/5PP_KakwaniNeriSonsdarticle.pdf
Income Policies:
http://www.fgv.br/cps/docs/acad/BF_Livro_Scanner.pdf
Deprivation:
http://www.compaso.com.br/docs/PP_inequality_relative_depriva
Metas Sociais:
BRICS:
http://www.ipea.gov.br/forumbrics/pt-BR/
Microdados & Dados Brasileiros
http://www.econ.puc-rio.br/datazoom/
www.ibge.gov.br
http://www.ipeadata.gov.br/
Obrigado!