Modeling of total passengers at the international airport of Bethlehem: A
preliminary study
Núbia da Silva Batista ¹
Cássio Pinho dos Reis ²
Flávia Ferreira Batista ²
In 2011, the maximum capacity of passengers at the airport in Bethlehem was exceded,
this meant that it entered into the list of Brazilian airports saturated, that is operating
above capacity. Because of this, the objective of this paper is to describe the behavior of
the time series of total passengers carried in domestic and international airport
international Bethlehem, finding a mathematical model that is able to predict these
values for the coming periods. The data presented are obtained through proper forms
filled out by the airlines and sent electronically or not, each airport network
INFRAERO. To study this data series was the methodology of Box & Jenkins, having
as main objective the achievement of forecasts, they generalize the ARIMA model to
deal with seasonality, creating the multiplicative seasonal ARIMA model, known as
SARIMA. The model chosen is the SARIMA (0,1,1) x (1,1,1) 12 model which has
undergone all diagnostic validation. According to the results obtained by the model, one
can observe an increase of 9.22% in relation to the movement of 2011 above the airport
capacity which is 2,700,000.
Keywords: SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Modeling.
¹ [email protected], Pós-Graduação em Logística e Pesquisa Operacional, UFC.
² [email protected], Pós-Graduação em Estatística Aplicada e Biometria, UFV.
² [email protected], Pós-Graduação em Estatística Aplicada e Biometria, UFV.