Ministério dos Transportes
Secretaria de Política Nacional de Transportes
Departamento de Planejamento e Avaliação da Política de Transportes
Brazil
Logistics and Transport National Plan
Western Hemisphere Transport Initiative – WHTI
IX Executive Committee Meeting
Kingston, Jamaica, August 22-24, 2006
Ministério dos Transportes
Secretaria de Política Nacional de Transportes
Departamento de Planejamento e Avaliação da Política de Transportes
Planning Process Principles
1.
Back to an old tradition at Ministry of Transport: long term planning
2.
A more balanced transport modal split, in energy and economic terms
3.
Regional planning and transport planning integrated
4.
Logistics aspects to be considered (cost & time)
- Inventory costs / Warehouse / Distribution / Just in Time
5.
Open to transport community and related sectors participation
I.
Productive sectors
II.
Users
III.
Transport operators
IV.
States administrations (Planning and Transport departments )
Ministério dos Transportes
Secretaria de Política Nacional de Transportes
Departamento de Planejamento e Avaliação da Política de Transportes
Methodology
1.
Planning transport in Brazil: history & analysis
2.
GIS developed for transport planning
3.
Transport planning & regional planning
4.
Macroeconomic forecasts and transport modeling
- supply x demand analysis  projects with economic rationale
5.
Projects with political rationale
6.
Logistic and Transport National Plan – PNLT Report
Ministério dos Transportes
Secretaria de Política Nacional de Transportes
Departamento de Planejamento e Avaliação da Política de Transportes
1. Planning transport in Brazil:
history & analysis
• PRODEST – Program for Development of Transport Sector, by GEIPOT,
a public company linked to Ministry of Transport, 1986
• Integration and Development “Axis” Study, by Ministry of Planning /
BNDES, the national development bank, 1999
• Studies done by several States: Bahia, São Paulo, Rio Grande do Sul,
Minas Gerais
• Other Ministries (Agricultural, Development, Tourism) studies
• Private sector studies
• Transport regulatory agencies studies
Ministério dos Transportes
Secretaria de Política Nacional de Transportes
Departamento de Planejamento e Avaliação da Política de Transportes
2. Specific GIS developed for
transport planning
2.1. Today's demand
• Traffic generation zones (production & attraction / internal &
external trips), including primary, secondary e tertiary sectors
• Regional & technological dynamics characterization
(integration & complementarities)
• Freight & passengers’ traffic volumes identification
Ministério dos Transportes
Secretaria de Política Nacional de Transportes
Departamento de Planejamento e Avaliação da Política de Transportes
2. Specific GIS developed for
transport planning
2.2. Tomorrow’s demand
• Information for PPAs 2008-11 e 2012-15 (PPA = multiyear plan)
• Guidelines for PPAs 2016-19 e 2020-23
• FIPE/USP macroeconomic forecast model, with regional specialists
(economic research institute of University of São Paulo)
•Existing & potential economic activities
– Trends in changing existing production practices / areas (in terms of
added value: from soy beam farms to soy oil processing plants, for
instance)
– New production areas
– New areas for tourism increase / development
– New economic activities in already developed regions
– Complementarities & economic integration in IIRSA
Ministério dos Transportes
Secretaria de Política Nacional de Transportes
Departamento de Planejamento e Avaliação da Política de Transportes
2. Specific GIS developed for
transport planning
2.3. Today’s supply
– Logistic & transport system characterization (physical, operational
e technological)
•
•
•
•
Highways / Railways/ Waterways / Coastal Navigation
Ports / Airports
Transference between modes – integrated multimodal terminals
Warehouses
– Existent projects inventory
• 3 government levels – federal, state, city
• Private sector
Ministério dos Transportes
Secretaria de Política Nacional de Transportes
Departamento de Planejamento e Avaliação da Política de Transportes
3. Transport e Regional Planning *
• Transport network as mandatory for territorial re-organization in Brazil
• Traffic zones = IBGE’s 558 geographical micro-regions (Brazil statistical
institute)
• Macro-economics development scenarios
• Social-environmental development scenarios
* in coordination with Ministry of Planning
Ministério dos Transportes
Secretaria de Política Nacional de Transportes
Departamento de Planejamento e Avaliação da Política de Transportes
4. Transport modeling
• Base-year / Model calibration
• Future scenarios – 2010, 2015, 2025
– FIPE/USP econometric model data: conversion for transport flows
– Sectors & products representing 80% of freight flows (in tones / in cost)
• Comparison between infra-structure supply x transport demand
• Critical points identification
– Lack of capacity (bottlenecks)
– Lack of coverage (missing links)
• Check list: critical points x projects inventory
– existent and eligible projects
– new projects required
• Projects with economic rationale portfolio
Ministério dos Transportes
Secretaria de Política Nacional de Transportes
Departamento de Planejamento e Avaliação da Política de Transportes
5. Projects with political rationale
•
•
•
•
•
•
Open to transport community and related sectors
participation
Development driven
Reducing regional disparities
Occupation / re-organization of territory
National security
New opportunities for IIRSA integration
Ministério dos Transportes
Secretaria de Política Nacional de Transportes
Departamento de Planejamento e Avaliação da Política de Transportes
6. Logistic and Transport National Plan
PNLT Report
• Historic
• Methodology
• Guidelines for implementation
• Selected projects portfolio
•
•
•
•
Costs / funding
Political & environmental sustainability
Priorities and implementation schedule
Projects synergies, including with other sectors
• GIS updating & reliability mechanisms
• Planning process consolidation in Ministry of Transport
Ministério dos Transportes
Secretaria de Política Nacional de Transportes
Departamento de Planejamento e Avaliação da Política de Transportes
Present Status
 Agreement Min. Defense / Min. Transport: CENTRAN (transport study center)
 Work start: February 2006
 Conclusion: 15 December 2006
 Socioeconomics studies and analysis: USP (FIA/FIPE)
 Consultants team
 Workshops (21Mar; 16Mai; 31Ago; 17Out)
 Regional meetings (from 03Jul to 08Ago)
03Jul: Manaus (AC, AM, RO, RR)
17Jul: São Paulo (SP, MS)
18Jul: Florianópolis (PR, RS, SC)
24Jul: Rio de Janeiro (ES, RJ)
25Jul: Belo Horizonte (DF, GO, MG, MT)
31Jul: Recife (AL, PB, PE, RN)
01Ago:Salvador (BA, SE)
07Ago:Fortaleza (CE, PI)
08Ago:São Luís (AP, MA, PA, TO)
 PNLT presentation on a national meting: 19 December 2006
Ministério dos Transportes
Secretaria de Política Nacional de Transportes
Departamento de Planejamento e Avaliação da Política de Transportes
Thank you!
www.transportes.gov.br/pnlt
[email protected]
[email protected]