JOSÉ AUGUSTO SGARBI ASPECTOS EPIDEMIOLÓGICOS DAS DISFUNÇÕES TIROIDIANAS NA POPULAÇÃO NIPO-BRASILEIRA DE BAURU Tese de Doutorado apresentada à Universidade Federal de São Paulo – Escola Paulista de Medicina, para a obtenção do título de Doutor em Ciências São Paulo 2011 1 Sgarbi, José Augusto ASPECTOS EPIDEMIOLÓGICOS DAS DISFUNÇÕES TIROIDIANAS NA POPULAÇÃO NIPO-BRASILEIRA DE BAURU, São Paulo, 2011. p.96. Tese de Doutorado, Programa de Pós Graduação em Endocrinologia, Disciplina de Endocrinologia, Departamento de Medicina, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de São Paulo Orientador: Prof. Dr. Rui Monteiro de Barros Maciel Co-orientadora: Profa. Dra. Luiza K. Matsumura Descritores: thyroid diseases, thyroid diseases, epidemiology, mortality 2 JOSÉ AUGUSTO SGARBI ASPECTOS EPIDEMIOLÓGICOS DAS DISFUNÇÕES TIROIDIANAS NA POPULAÇÃO NIPO-BRASILEIRA DE BAURU Tese de Doutorado apresentada à Universidade Federal de São Paulo – Escola Paulista de Medicina, para a obtenção do título de Doutor em Ciências. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Endocrinologia Clínica. Orientador: Prof. Dr. Rui Monteiro de Barros Maciel Co-orientadora: Profa. Dra. Luiza K. Matsumura Coordenador do Programa de Pós-Graduação: Prof. Dr. Sérgio A. Dib Pró-Reitor de Pesquisa e Pós-Graduação: Prof. Dr. Arnaldo Lopes Colombo São Paulo, 2011 3 Banca Examinadora 1. Orientador: Rui Monteiro de Barros Maciel, Professor Titular, Disciplina de Endocrinologia, Departamento de Medicina, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP). Membros: 2. Antonio Roberto Chacra, Professor Titular, Disciplina de Endocrinologia, Departamento de Medicina, Escola Paulista de Medicina, UNIFESP. 3. Mario Vaisman, Professor Titular, Disciplina de Endocrinologia, Departamento de Clínica Médica, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ). 4. João Hamilton Departamento de Romaldini, Professor Titular, Disciplina Medicina, Pontifícia Universidade de Católica Endocrinologia, de Campinas (PUCCAMP). 5. Hans Graf, Professor Associado, Disciplina de Endocrinologia, Departamento de Clínica Médica, Universidade Federal do Paraná (UFPr). Suplentes: 1. Osmar Monte, Professor Titular, Disciplina de Endocrinologia, Departamento de Medicina, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas da Santa Casa de São Paulo. 2. João Roberto Maciel Martins, Médico Assistente Doutor, Disciplina de Endocrinologia, Escola Paulista de Medicina, UNIFESP 4 À Luciana, Fábio e Caio 5 AGRADECIMENTOS À comunidade Nipo-Brasileira de Bauru, pela disponibilidade, compreensão e organização que possibilitaram a realização deste estudo. Ao Grupo de Estudo Nipo-Brasileiro em Diabetes, especialmente ao Prof. Dr. Laércio Franco, Profa. Dra. Amélia Hirai e Prof. Dra. Sueli Gimeno, pela possibilidade da realização deste estudo e apoio. À Teresa Kasamatsu, pela dedicação na realização das determinações laboratoriais, por sua disponibilidade e proximidade, pelo zelo e apreço para com as minhas pendências, pelo acolhimento e pela amizade. À Prof. Dra. Sandra Roberta Ferreira, pela disponibilidade, cordialidade, sugestões e revisão de manuscritos. À Sirlei Siani, pelo extensivo trabalho de análise estatística e pela compreensão nos momentos de discordância e tensão. À Ângela Faria, pela assistência administrativa, acolhimento e cordialidade. Ao Gilberto Koiti, Ilda Kunii e Patrícia Amioka, pelo auxílio nas determinações dos anticorpos anti-peroxidase tiroidiana. À Amarylis, pela assistência nos trâmites burocráticos da pós-graduação. À Prof. Dra. Heloísa Villar, pelo auxílio na exaustiva avaliação clínica da população Nipo-Brasileira de Bauru, incentivo e amizade. Aos queridos Magnus, Cléber, João e Janete, pelo acolhimento, incentivo, sugestões e pelo exemplo de dedicação, desprendimento e ética. 6 Aos meus preceptores do Hospital do Servidor Público em São Paulo, Chady, Mozart, Rubens, Horácio, Nazareth e Marisa, com os quais aprendi a tiroidologia clínica. Ao Prof. Dr. João Romaldini, meu mentor e amigo, pela presença constante orientando minha vida acadêmica, profissional e pessoal, por me compreender e aos meus limites e por ter me apresentado à tiroide com seu olhar. Ao Rômulo, pela compreensão, tolerância e resignação e por não ter desistido de tentar. À minha irmã, Dalcira e aos queridos Ideval, Felipe e Tiago, pela proximidade, cumplicidade e incentivo. Pelo exemplo de humildade, desprendimento e doação. Pela referência, o norte, um porto a qualquer hora e por qualquer razão. Aos meus pais, Alberto e Dalcira, pela educação calcada na simplicidade, na intuição, no amor e no conceito de família, por todas as oportunidades que me foram oferecidas, pelo exemplo do trabalho incansável e ético como meio de transformação social e por tudo o que sou. À Luciana, pela paz e o conforto do seu amor, pelo olhar que ilumina a minha vida, pela alegria e bom humor contagiantes, pela amizade e cumplicidade, pela compreensão e incentivo. Aos meus filhos, Fábio e Caio, por tudo que me ensinaram, pela oportunidade dos desafios, pelo amor infinito, por compreenderem os meus momentos de caserna e por não me permitirem a reclusão. 7 AGRADECIMENTOS ESPECIAIS À Prof. Dra. Luiza K. Matsumura, pela co-orientação desta tese, divisão de trabalho, pelo papel facilitador e moderador, pelas palavras de incentivo, torcida e cumplicidade, pelo ombro amigo nos momentos mais difíceis e pelo privilégio da amizade. Ao Prof. Dr. Rui M. B. Maciel, pela orientação desta tese, pelos caminhos que foram se abrindo, pelas oportunidades que extrapolaram os limites desta tese, pelos momentos transformadores, pela inclusão, pela confiança que foi se conquistando, pela amizade que foi se fazendo, pela seriedade do trabalho, pelo respeito, pela dignidade, pela ética, pelo exemplo de tutor e de mentor. 8 “...Sê todo em cada coisa. Põe quanto és no mínimo que fazes. Assim em cada lago a lua toda. Brilha, porque alta vive” Ricardo Reis, 1933 9 ÍNDICE Introdução .......................................................................................... 11 Objetivos ............................................................................................ 15 Apresentação ..................................................................................... 16 Comentários e Perspectivas............................................................... 18 Conclusões ......................................................................................... 22 Referências ........................................................................................ 24 Anexo 1 (Trabalho No. 01)................................................................... 32 Anexo 2 (Trabalho No. 02)................................................................... 42 Anexo 3 (Trabalho No.03).................................................................... 49 Anexo 4 (Trabalho No.04).....................................................................59 Anexo 5 (Trabalho No. 05)....................................................................70 10 INTRODUÇÃO As disfunções da glândula tiroide são comuns e posicionam-se entre as condições médicas de maior prevalência na população geral. No Reino Unido (1), estima-se que aproximadamente 15% dos adultos tenham alguma disfunção tiroidiana, mas concentrações elevadas do TSH podem atingir até 20% das mulheres idosas. Nos Estados Unidos da América (2), mais de 10 milhões de pessoas sabiam serem portadoras de alguma doença tiroidiana, enquanto outros nove milhões de não suspeitos apresentaram evidências bioquímicas de alguma disfunção. Estudos epidemiológicos (3-5) em outras regiões do mundo corroboram com esses achados, mas há variações consideráveis, particularmente em função dos critérios de seleção empregados, como idade, sexo e etnia, da ingestão de iodo na dieta e dos ensaios hormonais utilizados (6). No Brasil, há escassos estudos epidemiológicos e a prevalência das disfunções tiroidianas não é bem conhecida. No Nordeste brasileiro (7), a freqüência de alterações tiroidianas em uma amostra não representativa de 210 indivíduos do município de Cabeceiras, na Paraíba, foi de 20%. Na região metropolitana de São Paulo, a prevalência de doença autoimune da tiroide foi de 16,9% em uma amostra representativa de 1085 indivíduos, sendo que o hipertiroidismo foi encontrado em 3,3% e o hipotiroidismo em 8,0% deles (8). Na cidade do Rio de Janeiro (4,9), em uma amostra representativa de 1220 mulheres, a prevalência de hipotiroidismo foi de 12,3%, de hipertiroidismo de 3,7% e de autoimunidade tiroidiana de 13%. Mais recentemente, a freqüência de doença tiroidiana subclínica foi investigada em 314 funcionárias da Universidade de São Paulo (10). As taxas de hipotiroidismo subclínico e de 11 hipertiroidismo subclínico foram respectivamente de 7,3% e 5,1%, enquanto as taxa de anticorpos antiperoxidase positivos foi de 16,2%. Entre os distúrbios tiroidianos, as doenças autoimunes da tiroide e as disfunções tiroidianas subclínicas são as de maior prevalência e também as que despertam maior interesse de clínicos e pesquisadores. As doenças autoimunes da tiroide afetam de 2 a 5% da população geral, em especial mulheres adultas e idosas (11). São causadas possivelmente pela combinação de múltiplos fatores, genéticos e ambientais, mas a identificação e o papel de cada um desses fatores de suscetibilidade ainda não estão bem definidos (11-14). Uma característica curiosa e intrigante das doenças autoimunes da tiroide é a sua forte preponderância no sexo feminino (6,15). Possíveis explicações incluem os efeitos dos hormônios sexuais no sistema imune (16), alterações no cromossomo X (17) e o microquimerismo fetal (18-20), um conceito que envolve a transferência de células fetais para a circulação materna, que após longo período de tempo em tecidos maternos, participariam do desencadeamento da autoimunidade tiroidiana. Assim, paridade poderia se constituir em um fator de risco para doenças autoimunes da tiroide, explicando a preponderância feminina, mas há escassos estudos populacionais explorando esta hipótese e os resultados são conflitantes (21-23). Especula-se que a concentração de iodo na dieta exerça um papel de principal modulador ambiental do processo de autoimunidade tiroidiana. Em geral, sua deficiência atenua, enquanto o excesso de iodo acelera a indução de tiroidite autoimune em indivíduos geneticamente suscetíveis (24). Desta forma, em regiões onde a ingestão de iodo é elevada, como no Japão (3), a prevalência de autoimunidade 12 é maior quando comparada a regiões onde a ingestão de iodo é normal ou relativamente baixa (25-26). As disfunções tiroidianas subclínicas caracterizam-se pela presença de concentrações séricas anormais do TSH em face de concentrações normais dos hormônios tiroidianos (27). Afetam até 20% da população adulta, sendo o hipotiroidismo subclínico mais comum que o hipertiroidismo subclínico, e ambos, em geral, são mais prevalentes no sexo feminino e em idosos (1,2). Apesar da elevada prevalência na comunidade e do aumento do diagnóstico na prática diária, o significado clínico e a necessidade de tratamento dessas condições permanecem controversos (28) e motivo de intensos debates (29-31). Na última década, um número crescente de estudos clínicos (32-35), populacionais (36-44) e de meta-análise (45-47) procurou explorar os efeitos das doenças tiroidianas subclínicas no sistema cardiovascular e na expectativa de vida, mas os resultados são divergentes. Nesta Tese, apresentamos os resultados publicados, até o momento, de um estudo populacional sobre as disfunções tiroidianas na comunidade Nipo-Brasileira de Bauru, cidade desenvolvida localizada na região centro-oeste do Estado de São Paulo, distante 450 km da capital paulista. Esta população mostrou-se organizada e cooperativa em relação à realização de inquéritos clínicos e epidemiológicos anteriores (48) coordenados pelo “Grupo de Estudo Nipo-Brasileiro em Diabetes” do Departamento de Medicina Preventiva da Universidade Federal de São Paulo. Entre as características desta população, sua elevada prevalência de diabetes, obesidade, dislipidemia e hipertensão arterial (49) serviriam ao nosso interesse de explorar possíveis associações das disfunções tiroidianas subclínicas com fatores de risco cardiovascular e mortalidade. Além disso, trata-se de uma população não miscigenada que sofreu significativa aculturação no que se refere a hábitos dietéticos, aqui 13 interessando principalmente o conteúdo de iodo na dieta, visto que a ingestão de iodo no interior de São Paulo é nitidamente menor em comparação à do Japão (50). Por tratar-se de uma população étnica estável e geneticamente homogênea, a comparação de parâmetros de autoimunidade tiroidiana com dados provenientes de estudos em populações japonesas residentes no Japão poderia ser um modelo ideal para estudar o papel de fatores ambientais de susceptibilidade, particularmente do conteúdo do iodo na dieta, no desenvolvimento da autoimunidade tiroidiana. Em 2000, após realização de censo demográfico, todos os indivíduos com mais de 30 anos foram convidados (n = 1751) para participação no estudo, dos quais 1330 aceitaram. Na avaliação basal, todos os participantes responderam a questionários padronizados sobre estilo de vida, hábitos alimentares e sociais, antecedentes médico, pessoal e familiar, uso de medicamentos, paridade e tabagismo. Um questionário específico sobre doenças tiroidianas, incluindo antecedentes pessoais e familiares, sinais e sintomas clínicos, uso atual ou prévio de hormônios tiroidianos, drogas antitiroidianas ou de drogas que pudessem interferir com a função tiroidiana (glicocorticóides, amiodarona e lítio), foi aplicado por três tiroidologistas experientes, que também realizaram o exame físico geral e da tiroide em todos os indivíduos da população. 14 OBJETIVOS 1. Avaliar a prevalência e o espectro das disfunções tiroidianas na comunidade NipoBrasileira de Bauru. 2. Investigar o papel de possíveis fatores ambientais, como o conteúdo de iodo na dieta, no espectro das disfunções tiroidianas. 3. Investigar o papel de fatores biológicos, como paridade e o microquimerismo fetal, na prevalência de autoimunidade tiroidiana. 4. Explorar potenciais associações das disfunções tiroidianas subclínicas com o risco cardiovascular e mortalidade. 15 APRESENTAÇÃO Nesta tese de doutorado apresentamos 5 trabalhos completos sobre aspectos epidemiológicos das disfunções tiroidianas na população Nipo-Brasileira de Bauru, em uma linha de pesquisa focada particularmente nas disfunções tiroidianas subclínicas e nas doenças autoimunes da tiroide. A pesquisa foi financiada pela Fundação de Apoio à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo, FAPESP (auxílio à pesquisa 06/59737-9, “Epidemiologia das disfunções tiroidianas na população Nipo-Brasileira de Bauru). Os trabalhos são: 1. “Patogênese das doenças autoimunes da tiroide”, de autoria de José A. Sgarbi e Rui M. B. Maciel, publicado na revista “Arquivos Brasileiros de Endocrinologia e Metabologia” (Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab 2009; 53: 5-14) - Anexo 1. 2. “Parity is not related to autoimmune thyroid disease in a population-based study of Japanese-Brazilians”, de autoria de José A. Sgarbi, Teresa S. Kasamatsu, Luiza K. Matsumura e Rui M.B. Maciel, publicado na revista “Thyroid” (Thyroid 2010; 20: 1151 1156) – Anexo 2. 3. “Subclinical thyroid dysfunctions are independent risk factors for mortality in a 7.5year follow-up: the Japanese-Brazilian thyroid study”, de autoria de José A. Sgarbi, Luiza K. Matsumura, Teresa S. Kasamatsu, Sandra R. Ferreira e Rui M. B. Maciel, publicado na revista “European Journal of Endocrinology” (Eur J Endocrinol. 2010; 162: 569 - 577) – Anexo 3. 4. “Subclinical hypothyroidism and the risk of coronary heart disease and mortality”, de autoria de Nicolas Rodondi, Wendy P. J. den Elzen, Douglas C. Bauer, Anne R. 16 Cappola, Salman Razvi, John P. Walsh, Bjørn O. Åsvold, Giorgio Iervasi, Misa Imaizumi, Team H. Collet, Alexandra Bremner, Patrick Maisonneuve, José A. Sgarbi, Khaw KT, Mark Vanderpump, Anne B. Newman, Jacques Cornuz, Jayne A. Franklyn, Westendorp RG, Eric Vittinghoff, Jacobijn Gussekloo; for the Thyroid Studies Collaboration, publicado na revista “Journal of the American Medical Association” (JAMA 2010; 304:1365-1374) – Anexo 4. 5. “Associations between subclinical hypothyroidism and traditional and nontraditional cardiovascular risk factors”, de autoria de José A. Sgarbi, Luiza K. Matsumura, Teresa S. Kasamatsu, Heloisa H. Villar, Sandra R. Ferreira e Rui M. B. Maciel, Manuscristo em preparo para publicação – Anexo 5. 17 COMENTÁRIOS E PERSPECTIVAS A presente tese apresenta quatro trabalhos publicados e um submetido para publicação em periódicos expressivos da literatura médica nacional e internacional. O primeiro trabalho (11), foi uma revisão sobre a patogênese das doenças autoimunes da tiroide, com foco nos fatores genéticos e ambientais de susceptibilidade, publicado na revista “Arquivos Brasileiros de Endocrinologia e Metabologia” (Anexo 1). Discorremos sobre o papel de fatores ambientais, particularmente do conteúdo do iodo na dieta, e de fatores biológicos, como a paridade, no desenvolvimento das doenças autoimunes da tiroide. Pretendíamos fazer uma introdução para publicações posteriores que comparariam a prevalência de doenças autoimunes entre a população japonesa residente no Japão e uma população geneticamente similar residente no Brasil. Tratase de um modelo de estudo ideal para demonstrar o impacto da aculturação de uma população e diferenças ambientais no desenvolvimento de doenças autoimunes, neste caso importando as diferenças conhecidas do conteúdo do iodo na dieta entre as duas populações. Os resultados esperados seriam de uma maior prevalência de autoimunidade tiroidiana entre os japoneses residentes no Japão em razão da elevada ingestão de iodo, mas dados preliminares de toda a população de migrantes japoneses residentes em Bauru (ainda não publicados) e especificamente da população feminina, objeto de nossa segunda publicação (50), na revista “Thyroid” (Anexo 2), não confirmaram tal hipótese. Nesta mesma publicação, enfatizamos que paridade não foi um fator biológico de relevância no desenvolvimento de autoimunidade tiroidiana na população feminina estudada. Este dado corrobora com outros dois estudos populacionais (21,22), trazendo fortes argumentos epidemiológicos contra o papel do microquimerismo fetal como modulador ou desencadeador da autoimunidade tiroidiana, 18 apontado como um possível mecanismo para explicar a intrigante preponderância feminina (1-3, 6,15) nas doenças autoimunes da tiroide. O terceiro estudo apresentado nesta tese (Anexo 3), publicado na revista “European Journal of Endocrinology” (44), traz grande contribuição ao entendimento do significado clínico das doenças tiroidianas subclínicas e sobre a influência dessas disfunções na expectativa de vida. A publicação, que mereceu comentários especiais em editorial da revista (51), confirmou a elevada prevalência das disfunções tiroidianas subclínicas na população geral e mostrou associação significativa do hipertiroidismo subclínico com a mortalidade geral e cardiovascular, e do hipotiroidismo subclínico com a mortalidade geral. O impacto desta publicação foi imediato, de tal forma que o estudo foi incluído em uma revisão sistemática da literatura de estudos publicados desde o ano de 1950 até maio de 2010, sobre a associação entre doenças tiroidianas subclínicas e mortalidade. Entre as 4440 publicações identificadas, apenas 11 estudos prospectivos contemplaram os critérios rigorosos de seleção (eFigure at HTTP://www.jama.com). Para confirmar nossos resultados e a qualidade dos dados, abrimos nossa base de dados para uma análise independente, o que resultou em convite para participarmos como membros ativos de um grupo internacional de pesquisadores, clínicos e epidemiologistas, envolvidos em estudos populacionais sobre as disfunções tiroidianas subclínicas, o que denominou-se “The Thyroid Studies Collaboration Group”. A participação neste grupo resultou em publicação no “JAMA” (52), periódico de elevado impacto e reconhecida credibilidade, do quarto estudo apresentado nesta tese (Anexo 4). O estudo demonstra evidência robusta da associação do hipotiroidismo subclínico com um elevado risco de eventos de doença coronariana e com mortalidade por doença coronariana. 19 No quinto estudo desta tese (Anexo 5), apresentamos um manuscrito em preparo para publicação que explora possíveis associações entre o hipotiroidismo subclínico e fatores de risco cardiovascular, tradicionais e não tradicionais. Trata-se de estudo de grande interesse, pois se de um lado nos parece estabelecida a associação do hipotiroidismo subclínico com a mortalidade, particularmente por causa cardiovascular, por outro lado, os mecanismos permanecem ainda não conhecidos. Este estudo contribui com a literatura no sentido de não encontrar associação entre o hipotiroidismo subclínico com fatores de risco cardiovascular, clássicos e não clássicos, sugerindo que outros mecanismos, que não aqueles associados ao processo inflamatório da aterosclerose, devam estar envolvidos no mecanismo de morte de pacientes com hipotiroidismo subclínico. Desta forma, acreditamos ter contribuído de modo significativo com a literatura médica, particularmente no que se refere ao significado clínico das disfunções tiroidianas subclínicas, inclusive com possibilidade de mudanças dos paradigmas no tratamento dessas disfunções. Novas contribuições resultantes deste estudo epidemiológico serão brevemente submetidas para publicação, em resposta aos assuntos, ainda passíveis de controvérsia e pouco explorados na literatura. De nosso conhecimento, apenas um estudo epidemiológico prévio (53) investigou a presença de sinais e sintomas tiroidianos em indivíduos com disfunção tiroidiana subclínica na população geral. Esses dados são de grande relevância, pois indivíduos assintomáticos de uma população poderiam permanecer com uma disfunção tiroidiana subclínica por longo período de tempo, aumentando sua exposição aos efeitos deletérios da doença, o risco de complicações e de morte. Além disso, a análise de novos dados, obtidos em reavaliação mais recente de parte desta população, permitirá estudar a história natural 20 das disfunções tiroidianas subclínicas e das doenças autoimunes tiroidianas nesta população. Novos estudos em colaboração, resultantes da nossa participação no “Thyroid Studies Collaboration Group” já estão em fase de análise final e confecção de manuscrito, sendo o próximo um estudo de análise de dados individuais sobre associações entre o hipertiroidismo subclínico e mortalidade. Nosso próximo desafio, entretanto, será desenvolver e conduzir um projeto temático colaborativo, de estudo epidemiológico que estude o comportamento e as variadas facetas das doenças tiroidianas na população brasileira, importando particularmente as doenças autoimunes da tiroide, as disfunções tiroidianas subclínicas e o câncer de tiroide. Nosso compromisso será com o fortalecimento da Disciplina de Endocrinologia e Metabologia da Faculdade de Medicina de Marília, tornando-a um centro formador de novos pesquisadores em tiroide. 21 CONCLUSÕES 1. A prevalência de hipotiroidismo subclínico na população Nipo-Brasileira de Bauru é semelhante à de outras populações ocidentais suficientes em iodo, enquanto a prevalência de hipertiroidismo subclínico mostrou-se elevada (Estudo No. 03). 2. A concentração mediana de iodo urinário na população Nipo-Brasileira de Bauru foi de 210 µg/L, significando que esta população é suficiente em iodo (Estudo No. 03). Nenhuma associação foi encontrada entre o conteúdo de iodo na dieta e a o espectro das disfunções tiroidianas nesta população (Estudos No. 02 e No. 03). 3. Paridade não foi um fator de risco para doença autoimune da tiroide em NipoBrasileiras. Os dados não favorecem a hipótese do microquimerismo fetal no desenvolvimento da autoimunidade tiroidiana (Estudo No. 02). Aborto e uso de estrógeno também não se associaram com autoimunidade tiroidiana nesta população (Estudo No. 02). 4. Doença tiroidiana subclínica não se associou com maior prevalência de doença cardiovascular (Estudo No. 03). Hipertiroidismo subclínico associou-se significativamente com maior risco de mortalidade total e por causa cardiovascular, enquanto que o hipotiroidismo subclínico associou-se apenas com maior risco de mortalidade total (Estudo No. 03). 5. Hipotiroidismo subclínico foi um fator de risco significativo para desenvolvimento de doença arterial coronariana e de morte por doença arterial coronariana (Estudo No. 04). Níveis séricos do TSH ≥ 7,0 mU/L associou-se com maior risco de morte por doença arterial coronariana (Estudo No. 04). 22 6. Hipotiroidismo subclínico não se associou com síndrome metabólica ou com fatores de risco cardiovascular, clássicos e não clássicos, na população Nipo-Brasileira, exceto com hipertrigliceridemia no sexo feminino (Estudo No. 05). 23 REFERÊNCIAS 1. Tunbridge WM, Evered DC, Hall R, Appleton D, Brewis M, Clark F, Evans JG, Young E, Bird T, Smith PA. The spectrum of thyroid disease in a community: the Whickham survey. Clin Endocrinol (Oxf) 1977; 7: 481- 493. 2. Hollowell JG, Staehling NW, Flanders WD, Hannon WH, Gunter EW, Spencer CA, Braverman LE. Serum TSH, T4, and thyroid antibodies in the United States population (1988 to 1994): National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III). 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Natural course of autoimmune thyroiditis after elimination of iodine deficiency in northwestern Greece. Thyroid 2006; 16: 289-293. 26. Teng W, Shan Z, Teng X, Guan H, Li Y, Teng D, Jin Y, Yu X, Fan C, Chong W, Yang F, Dai H, Yu Y, Li J, Chen Y, Zhao D, Shi X, Hu F, Mao J, Gu X, Yang R, Tong Y, Wang W, Gao T, Li C. Effect of iodine intake on thyroid diseases in China. N Engl J Med 2006; 354: 2783-2793. 27. Romaldini JH, Sgarbi JA, Farah CS. Subclinical thyroid disease: subclinical hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab 2004; 48:147-58. 28. Biondi B, Cooper DS. The clinical significance of subclinical thyroid dysfunction. Endocrine Review 2008; 29: 76-131. 29. Helfand M. Screening for subclinical thyroid dysfunction in nonpregnant adults: a summary of the evidence for the U.S. Preventive Service Task Force. Ann Intern Med 2004; 140:128 – 141 27 30. Surks MI, Ortiz E, Daniels G et al. Subclinical thyroid disease: scientific review and guidelines for diagnosis and management. JAMA 2004; 291: 228-238. 31. Gharib H, Tuttle M, Baskin HJ, Fish LH, Singer PA, McDermott MT. Subclinical thyroid dysfunction: a joint statement on management from the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists, the American Thyroid Association, and The Endocrine Society. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 2005; 90: 581-585. 32. Biondi B, Palmieri EA, Fazio S et al. Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism affects quality of life and cardiac morphology and function in young and middle-aged patients. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2000; 85: 4701–4705. 33. Sgarbi JA, Villaça F, Garbeline B et al. The effects of early antithyroid therapy for endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism on clinical and heart abnormalities. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 2003; 88: 1672-1677. 34. Monzani F, Di Bello V, Caraccio N et al. Effect of levothyroxine on cardiac function and structure in subclinical hypothyroidism: a double blind, placebocontrolled study. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 2001; 86:1110-1115. 35. Vitale G, Galderisi M, Lupoli GA et al. Left ventricular myocardial impairment in subclinical hypothyroidism assessed by a new ultrasound tool: pulsed tissue Doppler. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 2002; 87: 4350-4355 36. Hak AE, Pols HA, Visser TJ, Drexhage HA, Hofman A, Witteman JC. Subclinical hypothyroidism is an independent risk factor for atherosclerosis and myocardial infarction in elderly women: the Rotterdam Study. Ann Intern Med 2000; 132: 270-278. 37. Imaizumi M, Akahoshi M, Ichimaru S, et al. Risk for ischemic heart disease 28 and all-cause mortality in subclinical hypothyroidism. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 2004; 89:3365–3370. 38. Cappola AR, Fried LP, Arnold AM et al. Thyroid status, cardiovascular risk, and mortality in older adults. JAMA 2006; 295: 1033-1041. 39. Gammage MD, Parle JV, Holder HL et al. Association between serum free thyroxine concentration and atrial fibrillation. Arch Intern Med 2007; 167: 928934. 40. Parle JV, Maisonneuve P, Sheppard MC, Boyle P, Franklyn JA. Prediction of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in elderly people from one low serum thyrotropin result: a 10-year cohort study. Lancet 2001; 358: 861-865. 41. Gussekloo J, van Exel E, de Craen AJ, Meinders AE, Frolich M, Westendorp RG. Thyroid status, disability and cognitive function, and survival in old age. JAMA 2004; 292: 2591–2599. 42. Rodondi N, Newman AB, Vittinghoff E et al. Subclinical hypothyroidism and the risk of heart failure, other cardiovascular events, and death. Arch Intern Med. 2005; 165: 2460-2466. 43. van den Beld AW, Visser TJ, Feelders RA, Grobbee DE, Lamberts SW. Thyroid hormone concentrations, disease, physical function, and mortality in elderly men. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 2005; 90: 6403–6409. 44. Sgarbi JA, Matsumura LK, Kasamatsu TS, Ferreira SR, Maciel RM. Subclinical thyroid dysfunctions are independent risk factors for mortality in a 7.5-year follow-up: the Japanese-Brazilian thyroid study. Eur J Endocrinol 2010; 162: 569-77. 29 45. Ochs N, Auer R, Bauer DC, Nanchen D, Gussekloo J, Cornuz J, Rodondi N. Meta-analysis: subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk for coronary heart disease and mortality. Ann Int Med 2008; 148: 832-845. 46. Razvi S, Shakoor A, Vanderpump M, Weaver JU, Pearce SH The influence of age on the relationship between subclinical hypothyroidism and ischemic heart disease: a metaanalysis. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 2008; 93: 2998-3007. 47. Volzke H, Schwahn C, Wallaschofski H, Dorr M. Review: The association of thyroid dysfunction with all-cause and circulatory mortality: is there a causal relationship? J Clin Endocrinol Metab 2007; 92: 2421-2429. 48. Gimeno SG, Ferreira SR, Franco LJ, Hirai AT, Matsumura L, Moisés RS Prevalence and 7-year incidence of Type II diabetes mellitus in a JapaneseBrazilian population: an alarming public health problem. Diabetologia 2002; 45: 1635-1638. 49. Rosenbaum P, Gimeno SG, Sanudo A, Franco LJ, Ferreira SR; JapaneseBrazilian Diabetes Study Group Analysis of criteria for metabolic syndrome in a population-based study of Japanese-Brazilians. Diabetes Obes Metab 2005; 7: 352 – 359. 50. Esteves RZ, Kasamatsu TS, Kunii IS, Furuzawa GK, Vieira JGH, Maciel RMB. Development of a semi-automated method for measuring urinary iodine and its application in epidemiological studies in Brazilian school children. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab 2000; 51: 1477-1484. 51. Sgarbi JA, Kasamatsu TS, Matsumura LK, Maciel RM. Parity is not related to autoimmune thyroid disease in a population-based study of JapaneseBrazilians. Thyroid 2010; 20: 1151-1156. 30 52. Biondi B. Invited commentary: Cardiovascular mortality in subclinical hyperthyroidism: an ongoing dilemma. Eur J Endocrinol 2010; 162: 587-589. 53. Rodondi N, den Elzen WP, Bauer DC, Cappola AR, Razvi S, Walsh JP, Asvold BO, Iervasi G, Imaizumi M, Collet TH, Bremner A, Maisonneuve P, Sgarbi JA, Khaw KT, Vanderpump MP, Newman AB, Cornuz J, Franklyn JA, Westendorp RG, Vittinghoff E, Gussekloo J; Thyroid Studies Collaboration. Subclinical hypothyroidism and the risk of coronary heart disease and mortality. JAMA 2010; 304: 1365-1374. 54. Canaris GJ, Manowitz NR, Mayor G, Ridgway EC The Colorado thyroid disease prevalence study. Arch Intern Med 2000; 160: 526 - 534. 31 ANEXO 1 Trabalho No. 01 Patogênese das doenças autoimunes da tiroide José A. Sgarbi e Rui M. B. Maciel “Arquivos Brasileiros de Endocrinologia e Metabologia” (Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab 2009; 53: 5-14) 32 revisão Patogênese das doenças tiroidianas autoimunes Pathogenesis of autoimmune thyroid diseases José Augusto Sgarbi1,2, Rui M. B. Maciel2 Resumo A doença tiroidiana autoimune (DAIT), que afeta de 2% a 5% da população ocidental, é o transtorno autoimune órgão-específico mais comum. Sua apresentação clínica varia do hipertiroidismo da doença de Graves (DG) ao hipotiroidismo associado à tiroidite de Hashimoto (TH). A exata etiologia da DAIT permanece desconhecida, mas a interação entre suscetibilidade genética e fatores ambientais desencadeadores parece ser de fundamental importância no seu desenvolvimento. Postula-se que fatores genéticos responderiam por 79% da suscetibilidade à DAIT e os ambientais por 21%. Genes imunomoduladores, como o complexo maior de histocompatibilidade (MHC), antígeno-4 associado ao linfócito T citotóxico (CTLA-4), a molécula CD40 e a proteína tirosina fosfatase-22 (PTPN22) e os genes específicos da glândula tiróide, como receptor do TSH (TSHR) e tiroglobulina (TG) têm sido identificados. A natureza exata do envolvimento do meio ambiente no desenvolvimento da DAIT não é bem conhecida, mas vários fatores ambientais têm sido envolvidos, como o conteúdo de iodo na dieta, estresse, drogas e infecções. Entretanto, não há evidência clara de causalidade e os mecanismos pelos quais fatores ambientais desencadeariam a autoimunidade tiroidiana, em indivíduos geneticamente predispostos, ainda permanecem não completamente entendidos. O conhecimento dos mecanismos precisos de interação entre fatores ambientais e genes na indução da autoimunidade tiroidiana poderia resultar desenvolvimento de novas estratégias de prevenção e tratamento. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2009;53(1):5-14. 1 Disciplina de Endocrinologia, Faculdade de Medicina de Marília (Famema), Marília, SP, Brasil 2 Disciplina de Endocrinologia, Departamento de Medicina, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (EPM-Unifesp); São Paulo, SP, Brasil Descritores Tiroidite autoimune; doença de Graves; hipotiroidismo autoimune; genes de suscetibilidade Autoimmune thyroid disease (AITD) is the most common organ-specific autoimmune disorder affecting 2% to 5% of the population in Western countries. Clinical presentation varies from hyperthyroidism in Graves’ Disease to hypothyroidism in Hashimoto’s thyroiditis. While the exact etiology of thyroid autoimmunity is not known, interaction between genetic susceptibility and environmental factors appears to be of fundamental importance to initiate the process of thyroid autoimmunity. It has been postulated that 79% of the susceptibility to develop AITD is attributed to genetic factors, while environmental factors contribute to 21%. The identified AITD susceptibility genes include immune-modulating genes, such as the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), cytotoxic T lymphocyte antigen-4 (CTLA-4), CD40 molecule, and protein tyrosine phosphatase-22 (PTPN22), and thyroid-specific genes, including TSH receptor (TSHR) and thyroglobulin (TG). The exact nature of the role environmental factors play in AITD is still not well known, but the involvement of several factors such as iodine diet content, stress, drugs and infections has been reported. However, there is no clear evidence of causality and the mechanisms by which environmental factors trigger thyroid autoimmunity in genetically predisposed individuals remain not fully understood. Knowledge of the precise mechanisms of interaction between environmental factors and genes in inducing thyroid autoimmunity could result in the development of new strategies for prevention and treatment. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2009;53(1):5-14. Endereço para correspondência: Rui M. B. Maciel Lab.Endocrinologia Molecular Disciplina de Endocrinologia, Dpto Medicina Unifesp Rua Pedro de Toledo, 781, 12º andar 04029-032 São Paulo, SP [email protected] Recebido em 30/Mar/2008 Aceito em 7/Jul/2008 Copyright© ABE&M todos os direitos reservados. Abstract Keywords Hashimoto’s thyroiditis; Graves disease; auto-immune hypothyroidism; susceptibility genes Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2009;53/1 5 Patogênese das doenças tiroidianas autoimunes INTRODUÇÃO Copyright© ABE&M todos os direitos reservados. A s doenças tiroidianas autoimunes (DAIT), consideradas como arquétipo das doenças autoimunes órgão-específicas (1), afetam de 2% a 5% da população geral, em especial mulheres adultas e idosos (2-3) e são determinadas pela perda da autotolerância imunológica. São causadas possivelmente pela combinação de múltiplos fatores, genéticos e ambientais, mas a identificação e o papel de cada um desses fatores de suscetibilidade ainda não estão bem definidos (4,5). Envolve espectro de fenótipos cujos principais representantes são a doença de Graves (DG) e a tiroidite de Hashimoto (TH), ambas caracterizadas pela presença de infiltrado linfocítico de intensidade variável e produção de autoanticorpos tiroidianos dirigidos a antígenos específicos, determinantes da expressão clínica da enfermidade, que pode variar do hiper ao hipotiroidismo. Outras formas de DAIT incluem a tiroidite pós-parto (6), a tiroidite silenciosa (7), a tiroidite induzida por α-interferon (8) e a tiroidite que acompanha as síndromes autoimunes poliglandulares (9). A tiroglobulina (TG), a tiroperoxidase tiroidiana (TPO) e o receptor do TSH (TSHR) são considerados os principais autoantígenos tiroidianos específicos na resposta autoimune tiroidiana (4,10-12). Existem evidências sólidas da interação de múltiplos fatores, genéticos e ambientais, para o desenvolvimento da DAIT. A taxa de concordância para a doença em gêmeos homozigóticos, muito maior do que a encontrada em gêmeos heterozigóticos e, ao mesmo tempo, a concordância menor que 100% em gêmeos homozigóticos, implicam, respectivamente, a existência de fatores genéticos (13) e ambientais (1) no seu desenvolvimento. Além disso, o fato de que imigrantes de países com baixa incidência de doença autoimune se adaptem à taxa de incidência do novo país (1) fortalece a hipótese de que suscetibilidade genética, em combinação com fatores ambientais desencadeadores, iniciaria a resposta imune aos antígenos tiroidianos. A predisposição genética é provavelmente predominante, responsável por, aproximadamente, 80% da suscetibilidade à DAIT (14), em que alelos do complexo maior de histocompatibilidade (MHC) e lócus não-MHC, como polimorfismo no gene antígeno-4 associado ao linfócito T citotóxico (CTLA-4), têm sido identificados como marcadores de suscetibilidade (15). Por outro lado, pelo menos 20% da suscetibilidade seria determinada por fatores ambientais (14,16), como tabagismo, estresse, infecção, selênio, iodo e drogas, entre outros (1). 6 Os mecanismos pelos quais fatores ambientais desencadeariam resposta autoimune tiroidiana, em indivíduos geneticamente suscetíveis, são ainda obscuros, mas a interação entre gene e ambiente tem sido considerada como processo fundamental para o desenvolvimento da DAIT. Com esta perspectiva, foram revisadas, neste artigo, evidências atuais da contribuição genética e ambiental na indução da autoimunidade tiroidiana. Determinantes genéticos de suscetibilidade A importância do envolvimento de fatores genéticos na suscetibilidade para DAIT tem sido demonstrada por modelos animais de desenvolvimento, pelo risco aumentado de DAIT em irmãos de indivíduos afetados e pela maior taxa de concordância em gêmeos monozigóticos comparados a heterozigóticos (17). A ocorrência familiar de DAIT tem sido reportada em diversos estudos. Hall e Stanbury (18) mostraram que 33% dos irmãos de pacientes com DG ou TH desenvolveram DAIT e que 56% deles tinham autoanticorpos antitiroidianos. Além disso, apontaram que, em quase todos os casos, pelo menos um dos pais do indivíduo afetado tinha autoanticorpos tiroidianos, sugerindo que a herança para a presença destes seria por traço dominante. As comparações das taxas de concordância entre gêmeos homo e heterozigóticos tornaram-se evidências robustas e irrefutáveis da influência genética na patogênese da DAIT. Estimou-se, por modelo biométrico, que a hereditariedade seria responsável por 79% do desenvolvimento da DG (14), por 61% em homens e 72% em mulheres do desenvolvimento da positividade do anticorpo antiperoxidase tiroidiana (aTPO) e por 39% em homens e 75% em mulheres do desenvolvimento do anticorpo antitiroglobulina (aTG) (16). Assim, fatores ambientais específicos explicariam o restante da suscetibilidade, significando que nenhum dos componentes (genético e ambiental) poderia, isoladamente, determinar o desenvolvimento da DAIT. A identificação de genes suscetíveis para DAIT tem sido investigada, em geral, por meio de estudos populacionais caso-controle, comparando-se a frequência de determinado alelo entre as populações doente e sadia. Recentes avanços no entendimento da base genética da DAIT revelaram a participação de genes imunomoduladores e de genes específicos da tiróide como os principais candidatos, mas, por enquanto, a maioria dos achados é de polimorfismos simples de um único nucleotídeo (SNPs) ou microssatélites (19). A Tabela 1 mostra a localização e o papel atribuído na suscetibilidade para DAIT desses genes. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2009;53/1 Patogênese das doenças tiroidianas autoimunes Tabela 1. Principais genes candidatos para suscetibilidade de DAIT. Gene Localização Principais funções Consequência funcional da variação Fenótipo associado MHC 6p21 Modula a ligação e a apresentação de antígenos. Alteração na ligação e apresentação do autoantígeno. Expressão aberrante do MHC II. DG CTLA-4 2q33 Inibidor da ativação dos linfócitos T. Hiperativação dos linfócitos T. DG, TH CD40 20q11 Ativação e proliferação dos linfócitos B. Hiperativação dos linfócitos B. DG PTPN22 1p13 Inibidor da ativação dos linfócitos T. Hiperativação dos linfócitos T. DG, TH 8q24 Codifica a tiroglobulina. Redução da imunotolerância à TG. DG, TH 14q31 Codifica o TSHR. Redução da imunotolerância ao TSHR. DG Genes imunomoduladores Genes específicos TG TSHR Os genes imunomoduladores de suscetibilidade à DAIT, identificados e confirmados, são o MHC, o CTLA-4, a molécula CD40 associada ao linfócito B e a proteína tirosina fosfatase-22 (PTPN22) (15,19-22). Outros genes, como o gene A relacionado à cadeia MHC de classe I (MICA), o gene regulador da autoimunidade (AIRE-1), o gene fator necrose tumoral (TNF), entre outros, têm sido envolvidos, mas não confirmados (19-22). Três regiões cromossômicas podem estar ligadas à DG, denominadas DG-1 (cromossomo 14q31), DG-2 (cromossomo 20q11.2) e DG-3 (cromossomo Xq21) (19) e duas à TH, denominadas TH-1 (cromossomo 13q33) e TH-2 (cromossomo 12q22) (22). O complexo MHC codifica os antígenos de histocompatibilidade humana (HLA), localizado no cromossomo 6p21 (23). O alelo HLA-DR3 mostrou forte associação positiva com DG, enquanto o HLA-DR5, negativa (23). A frequência do HLA-DR3 na população geral varia entre 15% e 30%, enquanto em pacientes com DG, de 40% a 55%, conferindo risco relativo para pessoas com HLA-DR3 maior que quatro (24). As associações da DG com os haplotipos DRB1*0304, DRB1*0301 e DQA1*0501 têm sido relatadas (23,24), inclusive no Brasil (25), mas a exata sequência de aminoácidos na cadeia DRβ1 de suscetibilidade à DG permanece indefinida. Recentemente, postulou-se que a associação do DRB1*03 com DG seria resultante da presença de arginina na posição β74 do HLA-DRB1 (DRb1-Arg74), fundamental para a capacidade dos receptores das células T fixarem e apresentarem antígenos B74 (23). Os estudos de associação da TH com antígenos HLA são menos consistentes, tendo sido descritas associações Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2009;53/1 com HLA-DR3 e DQB1*0301 (26) em caucasianos, HLA-DRw53 em japoneses (27) e HLA-DR9 em chineses (28). A TH com bócio foi associada com HLADR5, enquanto a TH atrófica, com HLA-DR3 (20). Os efeitos dessas associações entre DAIT e o complexo MHC são modestos e outros estudos mostraram resultados conflitantes. Além disso, a suscetibilidade varia entre grupos étnicos e os estudos em gêmeos mostraram influência genética muito maior do que o HLA individualmente (6). A molécula CTLA-4 é o principal regulador negativo da ativação dos linfócitos T, pela competição da ligação da proteína B7 (expressa na célula apresentadora de antígeno) à proteína coestimuladora CD28. Portanto, mutações no gene CTLA-4 poderiam resultar ativação exagerada dos linfócitos T e desenvolvimento de autoimunidade (29,30). O bloqueio da molécula CTLA-4 com anticorpo monoclonal confere aumento da proliferação das células T e da produção da interleucina-2 (30); além disso, polimorfismos no gene CTLA-4, no cromossomo 2q33, têm sido associados com todas as formas de DAIT, em várias populações, inclusive caucasianos e japoneses, possivelmente em razão de ser molécula coestimuladora inespecífica (15,22,30). Uma metanálise recente envolvendo mais de 13 mil indivíduos encontrou associação significativa entre polimorfismo nos alelos A49G e CT60 com DG e TH (31). No entanto, embora este gene exerça papel significativo para a autoimunidade em geral, não seria determinante no desenvolvimento da autoimunidade órgão-específica (30) e suficiente para a expressão fenotípica de DG e TH (30,31). Assim, o papel do gene CTLA-4 na suscetibilidade da autoimunidade tiroidiana ainda permanece incompreendido em sua totalidade. 7 Copyright© ABE&M todos os direitos reservados. MHC: complexo maior de histocompatibilidade; CTLA-4: antígeno-4 associado ao linfócito T citotóxico; CD40: molécula CD40 associada a células b; PTPN22: proteína tirosina fosfatase-22; TG: tiroglobulina; TSHR: receptor do TSH; DG: doença de Graves; TH: tiroidite de Hashimoto. Copyright© ABE&M todos os direitos reservados. Patogênese das doenças tiroidianas autoimunes A molécula CD40, membro da família de moléculas do receptor do TNF (TNF-R), expressada primariamente nos linfócitos B e outras células apresentadoras de antígenos (APC), tem papel fundamental na ativação e na proliferação dos linfócitos B (15). O gene CD40 tem sido associado com a DG, mas não com a TH. Uma explicação seria que um alelo C induziria a hiperexpressão da molécula CD40, resultando ativação acentuada dos linfócitos B e predomínio da resposta imune tipo Th2 (15,19,22). A proteína PTPN22, de modo semelhante ao CTLA-4, é inibidor potente da ativação dos linfócitos T e polimorfismos deste gene (substituição do triptofano por arginina no códon R620W), causam hiperativação dos linfócitos T e também têm sido associados como determinantes do desenvolvimento de DAIT e de múltiplos fenótipos autoimunes (22,32). No entanto, a associação de polimorfismos neste gene com suscetibilidade à DAIT mostra-se diferente entre as várias etnias. Os genes específicos da glândula tiróide também foram testados. Um candidato natural seria o gene TSHR, mas alguns estudos têm rejeitado contundentemente esta hipótese, permanecendo indefinido se o gene TSHR é candidato real para suscetibilidade à DG (33). Em contraste, existem evidências sólidas do envolvimento de polimorfismo no gene TG como fator de risco para a DAIT (34). Estudos de triagem genômica observaram forte associação entre o cromossomo 8q24 (região que contém o gene TG) e a DAIT (35). Postula-se que variantes do gene TG poderiam iniciar resposta autoimune tiroidiana por alterar a apresentação do peptídeo TG pela APC às células T (22). Em resumo, existem evidências sólidas que sugerem forte contribuição genética na suscetibilidade para o desenvolvimento da DAIT, mas constituída pelo efeito combinado de múltiplos genes de efeito modesto, pois não parece haver nenhum marcador individual para os fenótipos DG e TH. Neste modelo, genes de suscetibilidade compartilhados poderiam explicar a origem comum de DG e TH, enquanto genes específicos explicariam as diferenças fenotípicas das doenças. Acredita-se que a identificação de genes de grande predisposição à DAIT e o entendimento de suas consequências funcionais resultaria melhor compreensão dos mecanismos moleculares determinantes da DAIT, com possíveis implicações no seu tratamento e prevenção. Determinantes ambientais de suscetibilidade A participação de fatores ambientais na patogênese da DAIT também tem sustentação por estudos em gêmeos 8 homozigóticos, cuja taxa de autoimunidade tiroidiana é menor que 100% e também por modelos animais de autoimunidade tiroidiana. Além disso, estudos realizados em populações geneticamente similares, vivendo em condições diferentes, fortalecem esta hipótese. A taxa de diabetes tipo 1 em crianças paquistanesas que migraram para o Reino Unido é a mesma das residentes neste país que não migraram e dez vezes superior à taxa encontrada no Paquistão (36). A frequência de lúpus eritematoso sistêmico é significativamente menor em africanos do que em negros americanos, duas populações derivadas de um mesmo grupo étnico, mas expostas a ambientes distintos (37). Esses dados suportam consistentemente a hipótese da exposição ambiental como fator desencadeador da autoimunidade, mas a identificação e o papel de cada um desses fatores permanecem indefinidos. A participação de fatores ambientais nos mecanismos de desenvolvimento da DAIT parece ocorrer desde a vida intrauterina. A prevalência de aTPO foi maior em estudo que envolveu mulheres com baixo peso ao nascimento (38) e entre gêmeos homozigóticos que nasceram com menor peso (39), sugerindo que fatores intrauterinos associados ao baixo peso fetal seriam os primeiros fatores de risco ambientais de suscetibilidade para DAIT. Uma explicação seria a associação da má nutrição fetal com menor peso esplênico e tímico, o que poderia resultar a maturação precoce do timo e o declínio das células T supressoras. Uma das principais características da DAIT, assim como de outras doenças autoimunes, é sua forte preponderância no sexo feminino. A DG e a TH são, respectivamente, de cinco a dez vezes mais frequentes no sexo feminino em relação ao masculino (2,3). A tiroidite autoimune assintomática pode ser observada em cerca de 25% de autópsias, sendo quatro vezes mais prevalente no sexo feminino. Em estudos de rastreamento populacional, 8% a 26% das mulheres e apenas 3% a 6% dos homens apresentaram autoanticorpos tiroidianos (2,3). O cromossomo X poderia estar envolvido nesta diferença, mas o fato de a TH ser bastante prevalente em meninas com síndrome de Turner (cariótipo X) e pouco prevalente em meninos com síndrome de Klinefelter (cariótipo XXY) tornam esta possibilidade limitada (40), favorecendo possível efeito dos hormônios sexuais no sistema imune, onde os estrógenos teriam papel exacerbador e a testosterona efeito protetor. O microquimerismo fetal (41), conceito que envolve a transferência de células fetais para a circulação materna, constitui um novo mecanismo que poderia estar envolvido na maior preponderância feminina. Estas células Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2009;53/1 poderiam permanecer por longo período e participar do desencadeamento da autoimunidade tiroidiana na vida adulta. Se isso fosse verdade, então a paridade poderia constituir um fator de risco para DAIT, mas os resultados de recentes estudos populacionais, realizados na Austrália (42) e na Dinamarca (43), não encontraram associação entre paridade e DAIT. O uso de contraceptivos orais também foi envolvido como outro fator que contribuiria para a maior prevalência de DAIT no sexo feminino (1). A idade parece exercer papel na patogênese da DAIT, desde que a prevalência de autoanticorpos tiroidianos aumente com o avançar da idade. Hawkins e cols. (44) encontraram incidência de autoanticorpos tiroidianos de 9,8% em mulheres na Austrália, que aumentou para 15% quando a idade superou 60 anos. O estudo de Whickham (3), no Reino Unido, revelou prevalência de anticorpos antimicrossomais tiroidianos de 6,8% a 9,7% em mulheres jovens e de 13,7% em mulheres com idade entre 45 a 54 anos. Acredita-se que a idade aumentaria o tempo de exposição aos agentes meio ambientais e produziria alterações na imunorregulação, que poderiam contribuir no desencadeamento da tiroidite autoimune. O estresse tem sido frequentemente associado como fator desencadeador de doença autoimune. A relação da DG com fatores emocionais desencadeantes foi notada desde as primeiras descrições, por Graves e Basedow (1). A resposta hormonal ao estresse, por meio da ativação do eixo hipotálamo-hipófise-adrenal, exerce resposta imune tipo Th2, o que suprime a imunidade celular e aumenta a humoral, explicando porque certas doenças autoimunes são frequentemente precedidas por intenso estresse, entre elas, a DAIT (45). O tabagismo é fator de risco importante para a oftalmopatia da DG, mas não há forte evidência para sua associação com DG e TH. O aumento da síntese de glicoaminoglicanos por fibroblastos do tecido retrobulbar e o aumento da expressão de HLA-DR induzida pela nicotina em cultura de fibroblastos orbitais são mecanismos frequentemente citados para explicar associação com a oftalmopatia de Graves (1). Algumas drogas têm sido implicadas no desenvolvimento de DAIT. O exemplo mais marcante foi o desenvolvimento de DG em um terço dos pacientes com esclerose múltipla tratados com o anticorpo monoclonal humanizado anti-CD52 (Compath – 1H), que suprime a resposta Th1, mas não a Th2, exacerbando a resposta humoral e a produção de anticorpos contra o TSHR (46). Outras drogas, como os agentes retrovirais, o IFN-α no tratamento da hepatite C, a IL-2 utilizada no Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2009;53/1 tratamento da infecção pelo vírus HIV, do carcinoma renal metastático e do melanoma, e o fator estimulador de colônias de granulócitos e macrófagos têm sido reportados como indutores de autoimunidade contra a glândula tiróide (1). Agentes infecciosos têm potencial para desencadear processo autoimune por diferentes mecanismos, entre eles o mimetismo molecular, quando uma resposta imune a um autoantígeno é desencadeada pela sua similaridade molecular com o antígeno estranho por meio de reação cruzada, pela ativação policlonal de linfócitos autorreativos e pela liberação de antígenos previamente sequestrados (1,47). No entanto, não há evidência clara da associação de DAIT com agentes infecciosos, exceto pela presença de aTPO em crianças portadoras de rubéola congênita e da notável associação com a bactéria enteropatógena Yersínia enterocolítica (YE-RP) (47-49). A prevalência de anticorpos YE-RP foi significativamente maior em pacientes com DG comparados ao grupo-controle e em pacientes com TH comparados a pacientes com outras doenças não-autoimunes da tiróide (48). Estudos experimentais sugeriram homologia antigênica entre proteínas liberadas da YE-RP enteropatogênica e antígenos das células epiteliais tiroidianas. Esta proteína ainda permanece não identificada, mas parece haver homologia conformacional entre a proteína hsp70 e o TSH-R, constituindo sítio de ligação específica para o TSH e também reconhecido pelo TRAb (49). Esses dados, embora possam sugerir o papel da infecção como desencadeador ou acelerador de DAIT, contrastam com a crescente aceitação do que se convencionou denominar hipótese da higiene, pela qual, o sistema imune seria educado por meio de múltiplas e diferentes infecções, o que resultaria melhor controle da resposta imune (50). Assim, o desenvolvimento urbano e a sensível melhora das condições de higiene, diminuindo a exposição a agentes microbianos, poderiam estar associados com aumentado risco de doença autoimune. Recentemente, um estudo epidemiológico envolvendo duas populações de crianças geneticamente similares, mas expostas a diferentes meio ambientes, uma na Finlândia e outra na Rússia, mostrou que a prevalência de autoanticorpos tiroidianos foi significativamente maior na Finlândia, onde o nível socioeconômico e a qualidade de vida eram marcadamente superiores (51). O selênio (Se) é um micronutriente essencial para a síntese de selenoproteínas que exercem papel importante na síntese, metabolismo e ação dos hormônios tiroidianos; além disso, modifica a expressão de, pelo me9 Copyright© ABE&M todos os direitos reservados. Patogênese das doenças tiroidianas autoimunes Copyright© ABE&M todos os direitos reservados. Patogênese das doenças tiroidianas autoimunes nos, 30 selenoproteínas, entre as quais, as famílias das selenoenzimas glutationa-peroxidases, tioredoxina-peroxidases e desiodases tiroidianas (52). Possui propriedade antioxidante potente e forma sistema complexo de defesa que protege o tirócito da lesão oxidativa (53). A deficiência de selênio foi associada com bócio e com hipoecogenicidade da tiróide, aspectos característicos da TH, enquanto a suplementação com selênio parece modificar a resposta imune, reduzindo significativamente os títulos de aTPO e a ecogenicidade tiroidiana em pacientes com tiroidite autoimune (54). Recentemente, observou-se que a suplementação de Se durante a gestação reduziu a incidência de disfunção tiroidiana e de hipotiroidismo pós-parto entre as gestantes com títulos positivos de aTPO (55). Entre todos os candidatos a fatores ambientais de suscetibilidade à DAIT, a concentração de iodo na dieta assume o papel de fator exógeno principal como modulador do processo de autoimunidade tiroidiana (56). Uma ingestão de iodo adequada é essencial para a síntese de hormônios tiroidianos e a consequente função tiroidiana normal; entretanto, em geral, sua deficiência atenua, enquanto o excesso de iodo acelera a indução de tiroidite autoimune em indivíduos geneticamente suscetíveis (56-62). O papel do iodo da dieta, como fator desencadeador de autoimunidade tiroidiana, está bem documentado em modelos animais (57). Além disso, estudos populacionais de monitoramento da deficiência do iodo após intervenções de sua reposição (58,59) e a maior prevalência de DAIT em regiões suficientes em iodo (60,61) sugerem forte associação entre a ingestão de iodo e o desenvolvimento de autoimunidade tiroidiana. De fato, a incidência de tiroidite autoimune nos Estados Unidos aumentou concomitante ao progressivo aumento de iodo na dieta. Na Grécia, estudo prospectivo realizado em pacientes com bócio endêmico evidenciou aumento na incidência de autoanticorpos tiroidianos após administração de iodo oral ou injetável (61). A prevalência de positividade para anticorpos tiroidianos antimicrossomais foi de 25% em idosas residentes em Worcester, Massachusetts, área suficiente em iodo, enquanto em Reggio Emilia, Itália, área deficiente em iodo, a positividade foi menor que 1% (61). Em regiões onde a ingestão de iodo é elevada, como no Japão, a incidência de TH é maior quando comparada às regiões onde a ingestão de iodo é normal ou relativamente baixa (61,62). Finalmente, a DG é mais frequente em áreas suficientes de iodo, enquanto causas não-autoimunes de hipertiroidismo são mais prevalentes em regiões com baixo conteúdo de iodo na dieta (61). 10 Os mecanismos pelos quais o iodo da dieta modularia a reação tiroidiana autoimune são ainda desconhecidos, mas várias hipóteses têm sido aventadas, como a toxicidade direta ao tirócito, a imunogenicidade aumentada da TG e os efeitos diretos do iodo nas células do sistema imune (63). Assim, quantidades elevadas de iodo são oxidadas rapidamente pela enzima TPO, gerando elementos oxidativos que podem causar lesão da membrana celular e indução de processo inflamatório ou autoimune em indivíduos predispostos. Por outro lado, o tratamento com antioxidantes, de animais geneticamente predispostos para autoimunidade tiroidiana, reduziu o infiltrado linfocítico e a síntese de anticorpos (64). Uma ingestão excessiva de iodo resulta moléculas de TG altamente iodadas e na formação de neoepitopos mais imunogênicos, o que poderia precipitar o processo autoimune. Além disso, a iodação aumentada da TG facilitaria a apresentação de epitopos patogênicos não-iodados da TG para as células apresentadoras de antígeno (APC) (65). Finalmente, efeitos estimuladores do iodo nas células do sistema imune, como macrófagos, linfócitos T e B, moléculas de adesão e, particularmente, nas células dendríticas, parecem exercer papel no desencadeamento da autorreatividade tiroidiana (63). Patogênese da autoimunidade tiroidiana O desenvolvimento da DAIT é determinado pela perda da tolerância imunológica e da reatividade a autoantígenos tiroidianos, resultando infiltrado na glândula por linfócitos T e B reativos, produção de autoanticorpos e na expressão clínica do hipertiroidismo na DG e do hipotiroidismo na TH. Na DG, o infiltrado tiroidiano de células T ativa as células β para a produção do anticorpo anti-receptor do TSH (TRAb), o qual ocupa e ativa o TSHR, estimulando a tiróide e determinando o hipertiroidismo. Por outro lado, na TH, as células T induzem a apoptose das células foliculares e a destruição da arquitetura glandular e hipotiroidismo (4,5). Embora inicialmente consideradas como doenças distintas, em uma visão mais moderna e atual, DG e TH representariam lados opostos ou desfechos diferentes de um mesmo processo fisiopatológico (66). O desenvolvimento da tolerância imunológica a autoantígenos envolve processo complexo de mecanismos centrais e periféricos. A tolerância central ocorre no timo pela deleção de células T que se ligam com alta afinidade a peptídeos endógenos. Quando este processo falha, células T efetoras autorreativas (Teffs) podem escapar da seleção tímica e migrar para a periferia, onde Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2009;53/1 são inibidas pelas células T (CD4+) naturalmente regulatórias (Treg) (67). As células Treg, geradas no timo, expressam as moléculas CD25 e CTLA-4, consideradas essenciais para a supressão da resposta imune mediada por células T. Os polimorfismos do gene CTLA-4 ou a mutação do gene CD25 associam-se com doenças autoimunes em humanos (68) e a depleção das células Treg tem sido relacionada com o desenvolvimento de tiroidite autoimune, a apoptose celular e a progressão do hipertiroidismo da DG ao hipotiroidismo da TH, que ocorre naturalmente em alguns casos (69). Os fatores desencadeadores do processo autoimune na DAIT não são bem conhecidos, mas admite-se que o sinal inflamatório inicial seria emitido por lesão ou necrose celular desencadeada por múltiplos fatores, como anormalidades genéticas, infecção (virais ou bacterianas), estresse ou excesso de iodo, com liberação de autoantígenos, atração e infiltração glandular por células T e β (1,4). A lesão inicial atrairia quantidade expressiva de APC “profissionais” para o meio intratiroidiano, que, por sua vez, apresentaria os autoantígenos tiroidianos aos linfócitos T auxiliadores CD4+. As citocinas liberadas deste processo induziriam a expressão de moléculas MHC (HLA de classe I e classe II) na superfície da célula folicular, transformando-as em APCs. A expressão aberrante de moléculas HLA de classe II na célula tiroidiana parece ter papel relevante no desenvolvimento da DAIT (23). Os mecanismos pelos quais moléculas HLA conferem suscetibilidade à DAIT têm sido agora mais bem compreendidos. As células T reconhecem e respondem a um antígeno pela interação com complexo composto de peptídeo antigênico apresentado por moléculas HLA. Especula-se que diferentes alelos HLA tenham afinidades distintas por peptídeos de autoantígenos tiroidianos; uma vez ligados, os peptídeos seriam apresentados e reconhecidos por receptores das células T (TCR) em células que teriam escapado da tolerância imunológica. Neste modelo, um alelo HLA-DR específico poderia permitir que um peptídeo autoantigênico se fixe, seja apresentado e reconhecido pelo TCR (23). Neste sentido, tem sido demonstrado que a presença da arginina na posição 74 da cadeia DR β1 do HLA-DR3 (DRb1-Arg74) induziria alteração estrutural da unidade de ligação de peptídeos do HLADR, afetando, de modo significativo, sua capacidade de ligação a peptídeos tiroidianos patogênicos (23,66,68). Em uma outra alternativa, agentes infecciosos desencadeariam o processo autoimune por mecanismo conhecido por mimetismo molecular, quando resposta imune a autoantígeno fosse desencadeada pela sua similaridade Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2009;53/1 molecular com o antígeno estranho por meio de reação cruzada (47-49). Havendo falha na manutenção da tolerância imunológica, os autoantígenos não seriam reconhecidos, resultando ativação de células β e T autorreativas, com resposta inflamatória excessiva e inapropriada. O recrutamento de linfócitos na DAIT envolve processo complexo com atuação de moléculas de adesão e, principalmente, de quimiocinas, uma família especializada de citoninas que controlam a migração de leucócitos (quimiotaxia) durante o processo inflamatório (70). Estudos experimentais sugerem que as quimiocinas induzidas pelo IFN-γ (CXCL9, CXCL10, CXCL11) e seu receptor CXCR3 teriam papel importante no estágio inicial da DAIT, uma vez que essas quimiocinas recrutariam linfócitos Th1, que secretam IFN-γ, portanto perpetuando o processo autoimune. Por outro lado, os linfócitos Th2 são recrutados nos tecidos pelas quimiocinas CCL17 e CCL22, ligantes do receptor CCR4, expressos nas células Th2 (70). As células Th1 secretam IL-2, IFN-γ e TNF-a, que resulta na ativação de macrófagos, na produção de fixadores do complemento, em anticorpos opsonizantes e em citotoxicidade. As células Th2 secretam IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-10 e IL-13, que têm papel inibitório sobre a produção das citocinas Th1 e estimulam os linfócitos B na produção de imunoglobulinas específicas (71-72). Assim, as quimiocinas poderiam ter papel importante no tipo de resposta linfocítica predominante, se Th1 ou Th2 (70). A diferenciação em uma ou outra resposta imune parece, ainda, ser regulada por sinais coestimuladores determinados pela família de moléculas expressas na superfície celular das células APC, denominadas proteínas B7. Coestimuladores B7-1 induzem a produção de células Th1, enquanto proteínas coestimuladoras B7-2 induzem a produção de células Th2 (71-73). Na TH, a maioria do infiltrado linfocítico age como células Th1, favorecendo a imunidade celular e o desenvolvimento da apoptose celular (74). Ligantes apoptóticos e receptores, como o TNF, Fas e o ligante indutor de apoptose ligado a necrore tumoral (TRAIL) são expressados na célula tiroidiana, mas, em condições fisiológicas, permanecem inativados (74). No entanto, a expressão do FasL, induzidas por citocinas Th1 no infiltrato linfocítico tiroidiano, determina a apoptose (75). Defeitos nas células Treg resultam a hiperprodução das citocinas Th1 e poderiam estar envolvidos na patogênese da TH (76). Na DG, o predomínio de citocinas Th2 favorece a imunidade humoral com a produção aumentada de au11 Copyright© ABE&M todos os direitos reservados. Patogênese das doenças tiroidianas autoimunes Patogênese das doenças tiroidianas autoimunes toanticorpos pelos linfócitos B. O aumento da concentração da imunoglobulina G (IgG) ou as citocinas Th2 parecem inibir a expressão de Fas e induzir a expressão de moléculas antiapoptóticas, o que protegeria os tirócitos contra a apoptose na DG (76). Entretanto, em modelos animais, a produção do TRAb foi associada tanto com a resposta tipo Th1 quanto Th2, sugerindo que a DG possa envolver diferentes tipos de resposta imune (77). Um novo subtipo de resposta Th, denominado Th17, também poderia estar envolvido na patogênese da DG (77). As células Th17 desenvolvem-se em resposta às citocinas IL-23, IL-6 e TGFβ1 por células dendríticas e antagonizam as respostas tipo Th1 e Th2 (70). Concluindo, a DAIT é o resultado da interação entre múltiplos fatores ambientais e múltiplos genes, com importância variável na indução da autoimunidade em um indivíduo ou em uma população. Em outras palavras, fator ambiental específico, na presença de gene de suscetibilidade, poderia ser determinante na indução da autoimunidade tiroidiana em um indivíduo, enquanto a interação entre um segundo fator ambiental e um diferente gene de suscetibilidade, precipitaria o início da autoimunidade em outro. Acredita-se que conhecimento mais preciso dos mecanismos de interação entre fatores ambientais e genes na indução da autoimunidade tiroidiana, possivelmente resultará o desenvolvimento de estratégias de prevenção em uma determinada população. A Figura 1 sumariza os principais passos dos mecanismos de suscetibilidade, desenvolvimento e progressão da autoimunidade tiroidiana. Agradecimentos: A parte experimental do trabalho dos autores na área de autoimunidade tiroidiana é financiada pela Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (Fapesp) (Auxílio nº 06/59737-9). RMBM é pesquisador do Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), do Fundo de Auxílio aos Docentes e Alunos (FADA)/Unifesp e do Instituto Fleury. Os autores agradecem a excelente assistência secretarial de Ângela Faria. Declaração: Os autores declaram não haver conflitos de interesse científico neste artigo. Suscetibilidade genética Fator ambiental (Iodo, toxina viral, bacteriana etc.) Lesão celular Liberação de autoantígenos Apresentação de autoantígenos pelas células APC Perda da autotolerância imunológica; resposta imune inapropriada e exacerbada Copyright© ABE&M todos os direitos reservados. Infiltrado linfocítico intratiroidiano Resposta predominante Th1 Imunidade celular e apoptose Tiroidite de Hashimoto Resposta predominante Th2 Imunidade humoral, produção de TRAb Doença de Graves Figura 1. Patogênese das doenças tiroidianas autoimunes. 12 Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2009;53/1 Patogênese das doenças tiroidianas autoimunes 1. Prummel MF, Strieder T, Wiersinga WM. The environment and autoimmune thyroid diseases. Eur J Endocrinol. 2004;150:605-18. 2. Wang C, Crapo L. The epidemiology of thyroid disease and implications for screening. Endocrinol Metab Clin North Am. 1997;26:189-219. 3. Tunbridge WM, Vanderpump MPJ. Population screening for autoimmune thyroid disease. Endcrinol Metab Clin North Am. 2000; 29:239-53. 4. Weetman AP. Autoimmune thyroid disease: propagation and progression. Eur J Endocrinol. 2003;148:1-9. 5. Collins J, Gough S. Autoimmunity in thyroid disease. Eur J Nucl Med. 2002;29 Suppl 2: S417-24. 6. Lazarus JH, Parkes AB, Premawardhana LD. 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Thyroid. 2006;16:289-93. 62.Laurberg P, Pedersen B, Knudsen N, Ovesen L, Andersen S. Environmental iodine intake affects the type of nonmalignant thyroid disease. Thyroid. 2001;11:457-69. 14 Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2009;53/1 ANEXO 2 Trabalho No. 02 Parity is not related to autoimmune thyroid disease in a population-based study of Japanese-Brazilians José A. Sgarbi, Teresa S. Kasamatsu, Luiza K. Matsumura, Rui M.B. Maciel “Thyroid” (Thyroid 2010; 20: 1151 - 1156) 42 THYROID Volume 20, Number 10, 2010 ª Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. DOI: 10.1089/thy.2009.0424 IMMUNOLOGY, AUTOIMMUNITY, AND GRAVES’ OPHTHALMOPATHY Parity Is Not Related to Autoimmune Thyroid Disease in a Population-Based Study of Japanese-Brazilians José A. Sgarbi,1,2 Teresa S. Kasamatsu,1 Luiza K. Matsumura,1 and Rui M.B. Maciel1 Background: It has been suggested that the female preponderance for autoimmune thyroid disease might be associated with hormonal differences, abortion, and fetal microchimerism. Findings emerging from the few epidemiological studies on this matter, however, are controversial. In this study, we investigated the hypothesis whether parity, abortion, and the use of estrogens are associated with a higher risk for thyroid autoimmunity. Methods: This cross-sectional population-based study examined 675 women from a Japanese-Brazilian population aged above 30 years. Thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAbs), thyroglobulin antibodies (TgAbs), thyrotropin, and free T4 were measured by immunofluorimetric assays. Urinary iodine concentration was measured using a colorimetric method. Data were analyzed in logistical regression models to obtain the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals. Results: TPOAbs and TgAbs were present in 11.6% and 13.6% of women, respectively. After adjustment for age, smoking, and urinary iodine concentration, the OR for positive TPOAb (OR, 1.22 [95% confidence interval, 0.73– 2.02]) and for positive TgAb (OR, 1.01 [0.63–1.62]) among women who had one or more parities did not differ from those who had never given birth. In addition, we found no association between the presence of thyroid antibodies and previous abortions or the use of estrogens. Conclusions: Parity, abortion, and the use of estrogens are not associated with thyroid autoimmunity in this population. These findings reinforce previous reports that advocated against a key role of fetal microchimerism in the pathogenesis of autoimmune thyroid disease. Introduction A utoimmune thyroid disease (AITD) is one of the most common autoimmune disorders, affecting around 5% of iodine-sufficient populations (1,2). Interaction of genetic susceptibility and environmental factors appears to be of fundamental importance in initiating the process of thyroid autoimmunity (3). It has been postulated that 79% of the AITD susceptibility can be attributed to genetic factors, whereas 21% can be attributed to environmental factors (4). However, there is no clear evidence of causality, and the mechanisms by which environmental factors trigger thyroid autoimmunity in genetically predisposed individuals remain unclear (3,4). Similar to other human autoimmune disorders, AITD preferentially develops in women of childbearing age and appears to be modulated by pregnancy (5). Possible reasons for this and for the female preponderance for AITD might include X-chromosomal factors, the potential effect of exogenous estrogens use on the immune system, and abortions (3,4,6). In addition, a phenomenon known as microchimerism, defined as a bi-directional trafficking of maternal and fetal cells during pregnancy, has emerged to explain the female preponderance in AITD (7–8). The persistence of microchimeric fetal cells in maternal tissues, such as thyroid, skin, and pancreas (9,10), is believed to play a role in the pathogenesis of a number of autoimmune diseases (e.g., AITD, systemic sclerosis, and type I diabetes mellitus) (8–10). Whether the last factor is natural or pathogenic and whether it may be involved in the pathogenesis of AITD is still not clear. Studies of fetal-maternal microchimerism in the thyroid have documented a higher prevalence of fetal cells in association with Hashimoto’s thyroiditis and Graves’ disease when compared with nonautoimmune thyroid disorders (11–13). However, recent data emerging from epidemiological studies show conflicting results (14–16). Two previous populationbased studies (14,15) found no association of pregnancy and parity with thyroid antibodies or thyroid dysfunction, suggesting no role of fetal microchimerism in AITD, whereas 1 Laboratory of Molecular Endocrinology, Division of Endocrinology, Department of Medicine, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil. 2 Division of Endocrinology, Department of Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina de Marilia, Marilia, Brazil. 1151 1152 another study demonstrated that parity was a potential risk factor for AITD (16). In the present study, we estimated the influence of previous parities, abortions, and the use of estrogens on the risk of thyroid autoimmunity in an entire community. Materials and Methods The present population (n ¼ 675) represents the female portion of a nonmixed Japanese-Brazilian population living in Bauru (Human Development Index, HDI 0.825; www .ipeadata.com.br Accessed May 20, 2010), State of São Paulo, Brazil. Detailed descriptions of this survey have been previously reported (17,18). Briefly, the entire population 30 years of age (n ¼ 1751) was invited to participate, and 1330 (76%) agreed. We excluded individuals who self-reported previous thyroid disease or were taking thyroid drugs (n ¼ 47), those using drugs that could affect thyroid function such as amiodarone, lithium, or corticosteroids (n ¼ 6) and individuals for whom serum was not available for testing for thyroid antibodies (n ¼ 5). Of the remaining 1272 (95.6%) individuals, 675 women took part in the present analysis. The participants answered a standardized questionnaire including information concerning family and personal history of thyroid disease, concomitant medications, smoking habits, pregnancy, parity, and previous or present use of estrogens. Fasting blood and urine samples were collected and stored at 808C for analysis of thyrotropin (TSH), free T4 (FT4), thyroid antibodies, and urinary iodine concentration (UIC). Serum TSH was measured in duplicate by a sensitive immunofluorimetric assay (Wallac-Delphia). The functional sensitivity of the assay was 0.05 mU/L, and the reference range was 0.4–4.5 mU/L. Serum FT4 was measured using a competitive immunoassay (Wallac–Delphia, Finland), and the normal reference range was 0.7–1.5 ng/dL. Serum antithyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAbs) were determined by a time-resolved immunofluorimetric assay (AutoDelfia TPOAb; PerkinElmer Life and Analytical Sciences, Wallac Oy). Tests were considered positive when values were above 35 U/mL, which corresponded to the functional sensitivity given by the manufacturer. Serum antithyroglobulin antibody (TgAb) concentrations were measured using an in-house immunofluorimetric assay (19) with a sensitivity of 40 UI/mL and an interassay error less than 5% along the standard curve. UIC was measured in early morning urine samples using a modified colorimetric semiautomated method that was previously described (20). The detection limit for the method was 10 mg/L with a normal range between 100 and 299 mg/L. Euthyroidism was defined as both serum TSH and FT4 within the normal reference range, subclinical hyperthyroidism as a TSH level less than 0.45 mU/L with normal FT4 level, overt hyperthyroidism as a TSH level less than 0.1 mU/L in the presence of an FT4 level above the upper limit of the normal reference range, subclinical hypothyroidism as a TSH level above 4.5 mU/L with a normal FT4 level, and overt hypothyroidism as a TSH level above 4.5 mU/L with an FT4 level below the inferior limit of the normal reference range or a TSH concentration above 20 mU/L. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Escola Paulista de Medicina, Federal University of São Paulo, and written informed consent was obtained from all participants. SGARBI ET AL. Statistical analysis All statistical analyses were performed using SAS statistical software version 9.1 (SAS Institute Inc.). The assumed level of significance was p < 0.05 (2-tailed). Parity was analyzed both as a binary variable (0, 1) and as a continuous variable (0, 1, 2, and 3). Continuous variables were described with the mean and standard deviation and nominal variables with the absolute (n) or relative (%) frequencies according to the number of parities, abortions, and use of estrogen. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used for continuous data followed by the Mann-Whitney U test when it was significant. Variables without a normal distribution as determined by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test underwent logarithmic transformations before statistical analysis. Frequencies were compared by the chi-square test or Fisher test when more than 20% of expected values were lower than 5 or any expected value was less than 1. Logistic regression models, adjusted for age, UIC and smoking, were used to determine the association of parities, abortions, and the use of estrogens with the presence of thyroid antibodies; regression models were also used to determine the odds ratio and 95% confidence interval. Results Among the 675 women from this population, 367 (54.4%) had never given birth and 308 (45.6%) mentioned previous childbirths (range, 1–12). One or more abortions were disclosed by 35 (5.2%) participants, and 67 (9.9%) had previously or were presently using estrogens (oral contraceptives or hormone replacement therapy). The characteristics of these women are shown in Table 1. Women who had never given birth tended to be older ( p < 0.0001) and were more likely to be smokers ( p < 0.04) and to have a lower UIC ( p ¼ 0.005) than those who had at least one parity. Conversely, there were no apparent differences in the prevalence of goiter or the mean TSH and FT4 levels among women according to their obstetrical history. The median UIC for all women was 210 mg/dL, and no statistical difference was found among thyroid disease categories. The greatest proportion of the participants had euthyroidism (80.1%), and the most prevalent thyroid dysfunctions were subclinical hypothyroidism (10.4%) and subclinical hyperthyroidism (6.9%). Overt hyperthyroidism (1.6%) was more prevalent than overt hypothyroidism (1%). We found no association of thyroid status with parity, abortion, or use of estrogens (Table 2). Thyroid antibodies (TPOAb and/or TgAb) were positive in 17.9% of the participants (Table 1). Both tests were positive in 47 (6.9%) individuals, TPOAb was positive in 76 (11.3%) individuals, and TgAb was positive in 92 (13.6%) individuals. There was no statistical difference in the prevalence of positive thyroid antibodies between women who had never been given birth and those with one or more previous parity. We repeated the analysis using number of parity as a continuous variable (0, 1, 2, 3), but again no relationship was found between parity and thyroid autoimmunity (data not shown). In addition, no difference was found in the prevalence of positive thyroid antibodies for participants who reported a previous abortion or for those exposed to estrogens (present or previous) through oral contraceptives or hormone replacement therapy (Table 1). However, when we analyzed these data by quantitative levels of thyroid antibodies rather 1153 Yes (n ¼ 67) 54.0 8.2 5 (7.5) 11 (16.4) 210 196 2.9 11.2 1.09 0.6 31.9 137.3 58.8 324.6 5 (7.5) 8 (11.9) 4 (6.1) 9 (13.4) No (n ¼ 608) 57.4 12.6 75 (12.3) 80 (13.2) 200 182 2.1 1.9 1.05 0.37 25.6 109.3 47.9 222.8 71 (11.7) 84 (13.8) 43 (7.1) 112 (18.4) 0.01 0.24 0.45 0.96 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.95 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.31 than by dichotomous classification, we found significantly increased mean serum levels of both TPOAb and TgAb in women who suffered one or more abortions. As shown in Table 3, the risk (odds ratio) for positive TPOAb and/or for positive TgAb was not different between the following groups: (a) women who had never given birth and those who had one or more previous childbirths; (b) women who had a previous abortion and those who never had an abortion; (c) women who reported present or previous use of estrogens and those who had not previously used estrogens. After adjustment for age, UIC, and smoking, the risk for positive thyroid antibodies (TPOAb and/or TgAb) remained unchanged among the groups. 52.9 10.3 28 (9.1) 43 (14) 220 201 2.6 4.7 1.08 0.5 24.4 90.5 56.3 274.9 38 (12.3) 41 (13.3) 21 (6.9) 58 (18.8) 60.5 12.7 52 (14.2) 48 (13.1) 190 187 2.9 13.7 1.1 0.7 27.7 127.9 42.8 194.2 38 (10.4) 51 (14.0) 26 (7.2) 63 (17.2) Age, years Smokers, n (%) Goiter, n (%) Urinary iodine concentration, mg/L Thyrotropin, mU/L Free T4, ng/dL TPOAb, U/mL TgAb, UI/mL Positive TPOAb, n (%) Positive TgAb, n (%) Positive TPOAb and TgAb, n (%) Positive TPOAb and/or TgAb, n (%) Data presented as mean SD, unless noted otherwise. TPOAb, thyroid peroxidase antibody; TgAb, thyroglobulin antibody. 1 (n ¼ 308) 0 (n ¼ 367) <0.0001 0.04 0.73 0.005 0.7 0.054 0.23 0.9 0.42 0.8 0.87 0.6 57.2 12.4 74 (11.6) 88 (13.8) 210 198 2.7 10.7 1.09 0.6 15.5 52.6 28.9 91.5 72 (11.3) 87 (13.6) 43 (6.7) 116 (18.1) 53.7 10.3 6 (17.1) 3 (8.6) 185 149 3.6 7.4 1.0 0.2 26.7 114.8 49.9 240.2 3 (8.6) 4 (11.4) 3 (8.6) 4 (11.4) 0.07 0.32 0.6 0.23 0.54 0.17 0.007 0.018 0.78 1.0 0.72 0.29 Discussion Parameter p-Value 0 (n ¼ 640) 1 (n ¼ 35) p-Value Use of estrogens No. of abortions No. of parities Table 1. Sociodemographic and Thyroid-Related Characteristics, According the Number of Parities, Abortions, and the Use of Estrogens p-Value PARITY IS NOT RELATED TO AITD In this iodine-sufficient population of Japanese-Brazilians, we found no relationship between previous parity and the presence of thyroid antibodies (TPOAb and/or TgAb), thyroid dysfunction, or goiter. Our results are in close agreement with two previous larger population-based studies (14,15), in which previous pregnancy or parity were not risk factors for thyroid autoimmunity. Walsh et al. (14) examined available serum samples from 1045 of 2142 female participants in the context of the Busselton Health Study in Western Australia, which is considered an iodine-sufficient region. Hypo- and hyperthyroidism (including subclinical and overt dysfunctions) were prevalent in 9% and 4% of the participants, respectively, and thyroid antibodies (TPOAb and/or TgAb) were prevalent in 20%. After adjustment for age, no evidence was found for increased risk of thyroid autoimmunity or abnormal TSH with increasing number of reported pregnancies. Pedersen and colleagues (15) examined 3283 women randomly selected from the general population of Aalborg and Copenhagen as part of the Danish investigation of iodine intake and thyroid diseases (DanThyr). With median UICs of 45 mg/L (Aalborg) and 61 mg/L (Copenhagen), the overall prevalence for TPOAb and/or TgAb was 20.9%. Again, no association was found between the risk of having thyroid antibodies and a previous pregnancy, number of pregnancies, parity, previous abortion, or the use of estrogens. The current study differs from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) (16), which identified a significant association between parity and both positive TPOAb and hypoechogenic thyroid ultrasound patterns in a populationbased sample of 2156 women. The reasons for the discrepancies between the SHIP study (16), previous studies (14,15), and this study are not clear but may include differences in population characteristics in terms of age, ethnicity, iodine intake, different assays used to determine thyroid antibodies, and different cut-offs used to define thyroid autoimmunity. The authors of the SHIP (16) study justified their different results by arguing that the Busselton (14) and DanThyr (15) studies were limited by relatively low response proportions of 64% and 51%, respectively, as compared with 68.8% in their study. In addition, they believed that the exclusion of women aged 31–39 years and 46–59 years might have led to an underestimation of the relationship between parity and AITD in the DanThyr study (15). They also commented that the study was performed in an area of mild-to-moderate iodine deficiency, whereas no exact data on iodine supply exist for the Busselton study (14). 1154 SGARBI ET AL. Table 2. Thyroid Dysfunctions According to the Number of Parities, Abortions, and the Use of Estrogens Parameter No. of parities 0 1 No. of abortions 0 1 Use of estrogens No Yes Euthyroidism (n ¼ 541) Overt hyperthyroidism (n ¼ 11) Subclinical hyperthyroidism (n ¼ 46) Overt hypothyroidism (n ¼ 7) Hypothyroidism (n ¼ 70) 302 (55.8) 239 (44.2) 3 (27.3) 8 (72.7) 24 (52.2) 22 (47.8) 4 (57.1) 3 (42.9) 34 (48.6) 36 (51.4) 0.31 531 (94.8) 26 (4.8) 11 (100.0) — 43 (93.5) 3 (6.5) 6 (85.7) 1 (14.3) 65 (92.9) 5 (7.1) 0.45 487 (90.0) 54 (10.0) 10 (90.9) 1 (9.1) 42 (91.3) 4 (8.7) 7 (100.0) — 62 (88.6) 8 (11.4) 0.97 p-Value Data presented as no. of subjects (%). p indicates w2 test or Fisher test. In fact, all of these arguments could have limited the ability of such studies (14,15) to detect an effect of parity on AITD. However, in the present study, in which no association was found between parity and AITD, the proportion of responders was approximately 76% (greater than that estimated in the SHIP study), and all women more than 30 years of age were invited to participate in the study; additionally, the median UIC found in our population was 210 mg/L, which is more than optimal according to current recommendations (21). The SHIP population was investigated during a time when the iodine supply was shifted from deficient to a sufficient supply (22). This is of particular importance, as previous studies have reported a transient or persistent increase in thyroid autoantibody titers after iodine prophylaxis (23–26). Thus, it is not possible to exclude the possibility that the parity-related risk of AITD found in such a study (16) could have been influenced by changes in iodine supply during the study recruitment period, especially considering that the study design did not allow the evaluation of changes in thyroid autoimmunity by comparing the situation before and after the iodine supplementation program (22). Further, the thyroid antibody assays and cut-offs chosen to define positive titers of TPOAb differ between the studies. The SHIP study differentiated between elevated (>60 mIU/mL) and positive (>200 mIU/mL) TPOAb titers, whereas the other studies (14,15) and our study used a TPOAb cut-off of approximately 30–35 kIU/L. The present study also differs from a more recent casecontrol study (27), in which both female and male twins from opposite-sex pairs had an increased frequency of thyroid antibodies compared with monozygotic pairs, indicating a potential role of microchimerism in developing thyroid autoimmunity. However, these findings should be cautiously interpreted, as reflected by the relatively wide confidence intervals, and because a number of other intrauterine factors such as number of placentas and birth weight may have influenced the results (27). The female preponderance in AITD might also be attributed to hormonal influences, as there is limited evidence concerning the influence of the X chromosome in the pathogenesis of AITD (3). However, there are relatively few studies exploring potential relationship between the use of estrogens and thyroid autoimmunity, and the results are conflicting (3). The present study is fully in agreement with the DanThyr Table 3. Odds Ratios with 95% Confidence Intervals for the Association Between Positive Thyroid Antibodies and Previous Parity, Abortion, and Use of Estrogens Parameter Positive TPOAb Crude Adjusteda Positive TgAb Crude Adjusteda Positive TPOAb and TgAb Crude Adjusteda Positive TPOAb and/or TgAb Crude Adjusteda a 1 Parities (reference: no parity) 1 Abortion (reference: no abortion) Use of estrogens (reference: no use) 1.21 (0.75–1.95) 1.22 (0.73–2.02) 0.73 (0.22–2.44) 0.71 (0.21–2.45) 0.61 (0.24–1.88) 0.59 (0.23–1.54) 0.95 (0.61–1.47) 1.01 (0.63–1.62) 0.81 (0.28–2.35) 0.82 (0.28–2.39) 0.85 (0.39–1.85) 0.86 (0.39–1.86) 0.95 (0.52–1.73) 0.94 (0.51–1.76) 1.28 (0.38–4.36) 0.79 (0.23–2.27) 0.84 (0.29–2.42) 1.2 (0.42–3.48) 1.11 (0.75–1.65) 0.84 (0.55–1.28) 0.63 (0.23–1.73) 0.57 (0.19–1.66) 1.39 (0.68–2.84) 0.68 (0.33–1.4) Adjusted for age, smoking, and urinary iodine concentration. PARITY IS NOT RELATED TO AITD study (15), in having found no association between thyroid autoantibodies and exogenous estrogen use. Associations between abortions and thyroid autoimmunity have been reported in some studies and a meta-analysis (6,28). The reasons for these associations might include the copresence of thyroid autoimmunity with other autoimmune diseases, direct actions of thyroid antibodies on placenta, and a greater age of women with positive thyroid antibodies and mild thyroid failure (6,28). In fact, in the current study, women who reported at least one previous abortion had significantly higher mean serum thyroid antibodies levels compared with those who had never experienced abortions (Table 1). Despite this, no increased risk for thyroid autoimmunity was found in women who reported previous abortions, which is also in line with the DanThyr study (15). In this study, age, smoking, and UIC differed significantly between women with one or more parities and those with no previous parity (Table 1). We do not have a reasonable explanation for age differences among the groups, but search for a causal role of parity on thyroid autoimmunity remained insignificant even after a logistic regression analysis adjusted for these variables. The major strength of our study lies in the fact that an entire iodine-sufficient population (and not a sample) was invited to participate, with a higher proportion of agreement than the three previous population-based studies in this area. A weakness of this study is the cross-section design, which is common to all previously published studies. Also, we cannot exclude the possibility of interaction effects across the different predictor variables, as it was not possible to do this kind of analysis in this study. Finally, we cannot guarantee that our findings can be generalized due to our selected population of Japanese-Brazilians. In summary, parity, abortion, and the use of estrogens are not associated with AITD in the Japanese-Brazilian female population. These findings reinforce previous reports that argued against a key role of fetal microchimerism in the pathogenesis of AITD. Acknowledgments We are grateful to the Japanese-Brazilian population and to The Japanese-Brazilian Diabetes Study Group. The authors gratefully acknowledge Dr. Heloisa Villar for helping in the collection of clinical and thyroid data. We thank Sirlei Siriane for the statistical assistance. We are also grateful to Gilberto Furuzawa and Patricia Hiroka for technical assistance and to Angela Faria for administrative assistance. This study was supported by a grant from the São Paulo State Research Foundation (Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo), grant 06/59737-9. 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J Clin Endocrinol Metab 94:4439–4443. 28. Toulis KA, Goulis DG, Venetis CA, Kolibianakis EM, Negro R, Tarlatzis BC, Papadimas I 2010 Risk of spontaneous miscarriage in euthyroid women with thyroid autoimmunity undergoing IVF: a meta-analysis. Eur J Endocrinol 162: 643–652. Address correspondence to: Rui M.B. Maciel, M.D., Ph.D. Laboratory of Molecular Endocrinology Division of Endocrinology Department of Medicine Escola Paulista de Medicina Federal University of São Paulo Rua Pedro de Toledo 669, 11o. Andar São Paulo 04029-032 Brazil E-mail: [email protected] ANEXO 3 Trabalho No. 03 Subclinical thyroid dysfunctions are independent risk factors for mortality in a 7.5-year follow-up: the Japanese-Brazilian thyroid study José A. Sgarbi, Luiza K. Matsumura, Teresa S. Kasamatsu, Sandra R. Ferreira, Rui M. B. Maciel “European Journal of Endocrinology” (Eur J Endocrinol. 2010; 162: 569 - 577) 49 European Journal of Endocrinology (2010) 162 569–577 ISSN 0804-4643 CLINICAL STUDY Subclinical thyroid dysfunctions are independent risk factors for mortality in a 7.5-year follow-up: the Japanese–Brazilian thyroid study José A Sgarbi1,2, Luiza K Matsumura1, Teresa S Kasamatsu1, Sandra R Ferreira1,3 and Rui M B Maciel1 1 Division of Endocrinology, Laboratory of Molecular Endocrinology, Department of Medicine, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Federal University of São Paulo, Rua Pedro de Toledo 669, 11o. andar, 04029-032 São Paulo, SP, Brazil, 2Division of Endocrinology, Department of Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina de Marı́lia, Marı́lia, Brazil and 3Department of Nutrition, School of Public Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil (Correspondence should be addressed to R M B Maciel; Email: [email protected]) Abstract Objective: The currently available data concerning the influence of subclinical thyroid disease (STD) on morbidity and mortality are conflicting. Our objective was to investigate the relationships between STD and cardiometabolic profile and cardiovascular disease at baseline, as well as with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a 7.5-year follow-up. Design: Prospective, observational study. Methods: An overall of 1110 Japanese–Brazilians aged above 30 years, free of thyroid disease, and not taking thyroid medication at baseline were studied. In a cross-sectional analysis, we investigated the prevalence of STD and its relationship with cardiometabolic profile and cardiovascular disease. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were assessed for participants followed for up to 7.5 years. Association between STD and mortality was drawn using multivariate analysis, adjusting for potential confounders. Results: A total of 913 (82.3%) participants had euthyroidism, 99 (8.7%) had subclinical hypothyroidism, and 69 (6.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. At baseline, no association was found between STD and cardiometabolic profile or cardiovascular disease. Multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs (95% confidence interval)) for all-cause mortality were significantly higher for individuals with both subclinical hyperthyroidism (HR, 3.0 (1.5–5.9); nZ14) and subclinical hypothyroidism (HR, 2.3 (1.2–4.4); nZ13) than for euthyroid subjects. Cardiovascular mortality was significantly associated with subclinical hyperthyroidism (HR, 3.3 (1.4–7.5); nZ8), but not with subclinical hypothyroidism (HR, 1.6 (0.6–4.2); nZ5). Conclusion: In the Japanese–Brazilian population, subclinical hyperthyroidism is an independent risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, while subclinical hypothyroidism is associated with all-cause mortality. European Journal of Endocrinology 162 569–577 Introduction Subclinical thyroid disease (STD) is characterized by abnormal serum thyrotropin (TSH) levels in the presence of free thyroxine (FT4) and total or free triiodothyronine (FT3) within their reference ranges (1–3). Epidemiological studies have reported a considerable prevalence of unsuspected STD in the general population (4–6), and clinicians have more frequently diagnosed this condition in their daily clinical practice. The main question that a clinician faces is whether a patient with STD requires treatment or whether an observational strategy could be safely followed (7); however, opinions diverge regarding the clinical significance of STD (8). Both subclinical hypothyroidism (SChypo) (9–15) and subclinical hyperthyroidism q 2010 European Society of Endocrinology (SChyper) (16–20) have been associated with cardiovascular abnormalities; but there are no prospectively validated trials, and treatment remains nonevidence based (21–22). One frequently raised question concerns the impact of STD on life expectancy, but findings emerging from epidemiological studies are very controversial on this matter (23–29). In this study, we estimated the prevalence of STD in an entire Japanese–Brazilian population and assessed its associations with cardiometabolic profile and cardiovascular disease in individuals with unrecognized thyroid dysfunction. We also investigated the relationship between STD at baseline and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a 7.5-year follow-up. DOI: 10.1530/EJE-09-0845 Online version via www.eje-online.org 570 J A Sgarbi and others Methods Study population and design A survey was conducted in a nonmixed Japanese– Brazilian population living in Bauru (Human Development Index 0.825; Source: www.ipeadata.gov.br), State of São Paulo, Brazil, which aimed to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and associated diseases in this community. A detailed description of this survey was reported previously (30). In summary, the entire population of R30 years of age (nZ1751) was invited, and 1330 (76%) individuals agreed to participate (Fig. 1). Reasons for nonparticipation (421 individuals, 24.0%) were refusal (64.6%), change of address (13.5%), and death (21.9%). In the cross-sectional phase conducted in 1999–2000, the prevalence of thyroid dysfunction and the associations of STD with cardiometabolic profile or cardiovascular disease were assessed. Individuals were followed from 1999 to 2007 in order to investigate the influence of STD on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Study procedures Socio-demographic, cultural, lifestyle, and health data were obtained by standardized questionnaires and Figure 1 Study flow diagram. www.eje-online.org EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF ENDOCRINOLOGY (2010) 162 trained interviewers. A specific thyroid questionnaire that included family and personal history of thyroid disease was applied by experts in thyroid diseases. Body weight and height were measured while individuals were wearing light clothing without shoes. Waist circumference was measured at the level of the umbilicus while standing and during slight expiration. Blood pressure was taken three times with an automatic device (Omron model HEM-712C, Omron Health Care, Bannockburn, IL, USA). The mean of the last two measurements was used to express systolic and diastolic blood pressure values. A standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) was obtained in the resting state by the standard procedure and was analyzed by two cardiologists. A Doppler probe (Imbracios 8 MHz) was used to determine the ankle–brachial pressure index for both extremities. Fasting blood samples were taken and a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test was performed. Samples were processed for immediate analyses in the local laboratory or were stored at K80 8C. Plasma glucose was measured by the glucose oxidase method, while the total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), and triglycerides were enzymatically evaluated with an automatic analyzer. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) was calculated according to the Friedewald equation (31). Insulin concentration was determined by a MAB-based immunofluorometric assay (AutoDelphia, PerkinElmer Life Sciences Inc., Norton, OH, USA). Insulin resistance was calculated by the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA-IRZfasting insulin (mU/ml)/22.5!fasting glycemia (mmol/l)). Urinary iodine concentration (UIC) was measured in early-morning urine samples by a colorimetric method (32), with a detection limit of 10 mg/l and the normal range between 100 and 299 mg/l. TSH levels were measured in duplicate by a sensitive immunofluorometric assay (Wallac–Delfia, PerkinElmer, Turku, Finland) with a reference range of 0.45– 4.5 mU/l and functional sensitivity of 0.05 mU/l. Serum FT4 was measured using a competitive immunoassay (Wallac–Delfia), wherein the normal reference range was 0.7–1.5 ng/dl. Date and cause of death were collected from death certificates between the start of the screening (November 1999) and June 2007. For individuals (nZ3) who moved out of the study area and for whom we were not able to have access to the death certificate, we asked families about the occurrence of death and its date and cause. In June 2007, the ascertainment of mortality was 100%. Cardiovascular death was defined as death from any cardiovascular or cerebrovascular event. All-cause mortality was defined as all deaths from any natural cause. This study was approved by the ethics committee of Escola Paulista de Medicina, Federal University of São Paulo, and written informed consent was obtained from all participants. Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and mortality EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF ENDOCRINOLOGY (2010) 162 Definitions Euthyroidism was defined as serum TSH and FT4 within the normal reference ranges; SChyper as TSH below 0.45 mU/l with normal FT4 level; overt hyperthyroidism as TSH below 0.1 mU/l with high FT4 level; SChypo as TSH above 4.5 mU/l with normal FT4 level; and overt hypothyroidism as TSH above 4.5 mU/l with low FT4 level or a TSH concentration above 20 mU/l (21). Hypertension was defined as a blood pressure R140/90 mmHg or as the use of antihypertensive medication; diabetes was defined according to the American Diabetes Association criteria; and dyslipidemia was defined by the presence of any lipid abnormality (total cholesterol levels R200 mg/dl or triglycerides R150 mg/dl or LDL-cO130 mg/dl). The presence of cardiovascular disease at baseline was defined by a medical history of myocardial infarction confirmed by a physician and by major ECG abnormalities of old infarction (Q waves) or by previous angioplasty or any heart revascularization procedure, or coronary insufficiency diagnosed previously by catheterization, or stroke. Peripheral arterial disease was defined by any ankle–brachial pressure index !0.9 (33). Statistical analysis Prevalence rates were calculated by point and confidence interval (CI). The data were described through absolute (n) or relative (%) frequencies, mean with S.D., and 95% CI. Differences in means of the baseline characteristics according to thyroid status categories were assessed by ANOVA (Tukey’s test for multiple comparisons if P!0.05) or nonparametric ANOVA (Kruskal–Wallis test), followed by the Mann–Whitney U test. Frequencies were compared by the c2 test or the Fisher test when one of the absolute frequencies was below five. Variables without a normal distribution were subjected to logarithmic transformations before statistical analysis. In the longitudinal analysis, survival curves according to thyroid status across the 7.5 years of follow-up were estimated using Kaplan–Meier analysis with the log-rank test. They were constructed considering the death as ‘event’ and contrary cases as ‘not event’ (censorship), which were predicted by the baseline thyroid status. Living individuals who did not complete the 7.5 years of follow-up by June 30, 2007 were censored for survival at 7.5 years. A Cox regression model of proportional risks in bivariate analysis was used to determine the crude hazard ratios (HRs). Multivariate analysis was used to account for potential confounders of the mortality rate. Relevant confounders were selected by their significant association with mortality (age, sex, presence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and cardiovascular disease), which were determined by the c2 test or the Fisher test when frequencies were compared, and by the Student t-test or 571 the Mann–Whitney test (for variables without normal distribution). Risk factors classically associated with mortality were also considered (total cholesterol, smoking status, and waist circumference), totaling a maximum of eight risk factors (maximum of one risk factor for every ten deaths). In cases of variables with co-linear inter-relationships, such as diabetes and fasting or 2-h plasma glucose levels, hypertension and systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol and LDL-c, only one was considered. Models were first adjusted for age and sex, and afterwards for the relevant confounders. A Cox regression model of proportional risks in bivariate analysis was used to determine multiple HRs with 95% CI to express the adjusted relative risk of dying for individuals classified as having STD relative to euthyroid individuals. All statistical analyses were performed using SAS statistical software version 9.1 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA). The assumed level of significance was at P!0.05 (two-tailed). Results From the 1330 individuals who agreed to participate in this cohort, we excluded those who self-reported thyroid disease or taking thyroid medications (nZ47), and those who reported to be using amiodarone, lithium, or corticosteroids (nZ6). Furthermore, we excluded 167 participants for whom ECG and ankle–brachial pressure indices were not available. Thus, 1110 individuals were considered for the present analysis (Fig. 1). There was no difference in demographic characteristics between included (nZ1110) and excluded (nZ220) individuals. Cross-sectional analysis Prevalence rates for each thyroid status category are presented in Table 1. The median UIC was 210 mg/l, with no statistical difference among the thyroid status categories (Table 2). Euthyroidism, overt, and SChyper Table 1 Demographic characteristics and thyroid status in Japanese–Brazilians. Demographic characteristics Total participants (n) Women, n (%) Mean age, years (S.D.) Age distribution, n (%) 30–39 years 40–49 years 50–59 years 60–69 years O70 years 96 (8.6) 229 (20.6) 311 (28.3) 285 (25.7) 189 (17.0) Thyroid status, prevalence rates, % (95% CI) Euthyroidism, nZ913 Overt hyperthyroidism, nZ20 Subclinical hyperthyroidism, nZ69 Overt hypothyroidism, nZ9 Subclinical hypothyroidism, nZ99 82.3 (80.8–84.9) 1.8 (1.0–2.6) 6.2 (4.8–7.5) 0.8 (0.3–1.3) 8.9 (7.0–10.1) 1110 591 (53.2) 56.9 (12.5) CI, confidence interval. www.eje-online.org 572 J A Sgarbi and others EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF ENDOCRINOLOGY (2010) 162 Table 2 Baseline characteristics according to thyroid status. Data are presented as meanGS.D., unless noted otherwise. Euthyroidism (nZ913) Overt hyperthyroidism (nZ20) Subclinical hyperthyroidism (nZ69) Overt hypothyroidism (nZ9) Subclinical hypothyroidism (nZ99) Women, n (%) Men, n (%) Mean age, years (S.D.) 469 (51.4) 444 (48.6) 56.4 (12.4) 10 (50.0) 10 (50.0) 56 (12.2) 42 (60.9) 27 (39.1) 61.4 (12.5)† 7 (77.8)* 2 (22.2) 65.1 (13.4) 63 (63.6)* 36 (36.4) 58.5 (12.3) Age distribution, n (%) 30–39 years 40–49 years 50–59 years 60–69 years R70 years 79 (8.7) 205 (22.5) 259 (28.4) 224 (24.5) 146 (16.0) 2 4 5 7 2 5 (7.2) 8 (11.6) 13 (18.8) 24 (34.8) 19 (27.5) – 1 (11.1) 2 (22.2) 3 (33.3) 3 (33.3) 10 (10.1) 11 (11.1) 32 (32.3) 27 (27.3) 19 (19.2) Characteristics BMIa (kg/m2) Waist circumferencea (cm) Current smoker, n (%) Past smoker, n (%) Hypertension, n (%) Diabetes, n (%) PAD, n (%) CVD, n (%) Statin usage, n (%) Systolic BP (mmHg) Diastolic BPa (mmHg) UIC (mg/l) TSH (mU/l) Free T4 (ng/dl) Fasting glucose (mg/dl) Two-hour glucose (mg/dl) Fasting insulin (pmol/l) HOMA-IRa Total cholesterol (mg/dl) LDL-c (mg/dl) HDL-c (mg/dl) Triglycerides (mg/dl) 25.1 (3.9) 84.5 (10.6) 120 (13.2) 173 (19.1) 342 (37.5) 328 (35.9) 117 (12.8) 120 (13.1) 13 (1.4) 132.8G24.4 79.4G13.3 204G103 1.62G0.94 1.07G0.17 124.4G(33.5) 166.5G76.9 63.2G49.5 2.8G2.6 215.0G41.1 131.2G37.3 50.8G10.9 232.3G189.5 24.1 (2.6) 83.2 (8.8) 2 (10.0) 9 (45.0)* 6 (30.0) 11 (55.0) 3 (15.0) 5 (25.0) – 127.5G18.7 72.4G12.8 184G99 0.1G0.11§ 3.2G2.74§ 137.0G(57.6) 184.3G98.8 48.8G32.3 2.5G2.1 193.2G53.7† 119.6G44.9 46.8G(9.5) 224.4G137.1 24.5 (4.2) 83.9 (9.9) 5 (7.2) 12 (17.4) 32 (46.4) 30 (43.5) 10 (14.5) 13 (18.8) 1 (1.4) 135.5G26.3 78.8G12.8 207G113 0.22G0.1§ 1.12G0.18§ 127.9G(40.1) 184.4G87.2 66.0G46.7 3.0G2.7 207.4G31.7 125.9G31.9 48.9G(7.2) 209.0G118.5 23.6 (2.0) 79.6 (4.9) – 2 (22.2) 4 (44.4) 2 (22.2) 2 (22.2) 3 (33.3) 1 (11.1)* 130.1G32.4 76.2G11.4 235G68 64.7G77.3§ 0.53G0.22§ 113.2G(8.3) 135.3G42.4 82.6G117.7 3.2G2.7 240.8G49.9* 158.1G40.4* 55.3G(10.5) 172.8G112.9 24.5 (3.7) 82.5 (9.8) 10 (10.1) 12 (12.1) 43 (43.4) 35 (35.4) 10 (10.1) 15 (15.2) 5 (5.1)* 133.5G25.2 78.2G14.2 221G113 7.1G2.82§ 1.01G0.2‡ 122.6G(29.8) 161.6G87.9 63.9G55.3 2.8G2.6 214.4G47.6 126.0G43.7 50.6G(12.9) 250.7G197.9 (10.0) (20.0) (25.0) (35.0) (10.0) BMI, body mass index; PAD, peripheral arterial disease; CVD, cardiovascular disease; BP, blood pressure; UIC, urinary iodine concentration; TSH, thyrotropin; HOMA-IR, homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance; LDL-c, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; HDL-c, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. *P!0.05; †P!0.01; ‡P!0.001; §P!0.0001. a Values were log-transformed for statistical analysis. were found in 82.3, 1.8, and 6.2% of the participants respectively, with no significant difference in sex distribution (Table 2). On the other hand, unsuspected overt and SChypo were identified in 0.8 and 8.9% of the participants respectively, both significantly more frequent in women (PZ0.04). The mean age was similar among the groups, except for the SChyper group, in which age was significantly higher relative to the euthyroid group. As noted in Table 2, the expected significant differences in TSH and FT4 levels were observed between euthyroid individuals and those with STD. There were no statistically significant differences among the groups concerning body mass index, waist circumference, smoking status, systolic or diastolic blood pressure, fasting or 2-h plasma glucose, fasting serum insulin, HOMA-IR, HDL-c, or triglyceride levels (Table 2). Mean total cholesterol (PZ0.03) and LDL-c (PZ0.02) levels were significantly increased in overt hypothyroid subjects, but not in SChypo subjects in comparison to euthyroid individuals. However, the proportion of individuals undergoing statin therapy www.eje-online.org was significantly higher in both overt hypothyroid and SChypo groups than in the euthyroid group (P!0.05). The OR for statin use, adjusted for age and sex, was significantly higher in SChypo individuals (3.4 (95% CI, 1.2–9.8)) than in the euthyroid individuals. Since statin use could be masking a potential association between serum levels of lipids and SChypo, the analysis was repeated excluding this condition, but the results did not change. The overall proportions of diabetes, hypertension, peripheral arterial disease, and cardiovascular disease were not statistically different among the groups (Table 2). Longitudinal analysis During the 7.5 years of follow-up, 83 (7.5%) deaths were recorded in this population. Four events of death by nonnatural causes (one by suicide and three by trauma) were censored, and three deaths by unknown causes were censored just for the cardiovascular death analyses. The deaths by unknown causes occurred in Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and mortality EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF ENDOCRINOLOGY (2010) 162 the euthyroid (nZ2) and in the SChyper (nZ1) group. Deaths mainly occurred as a result of cardiovascular causes (51.3%), cancer (22.3%), or infectious disease (14.5%). Table 3 shows the main differences between living and dead individuals. Among the dead subjects, 50 (65.8%) had been categorized as euthyroid, 14 (17.7%) as SChyper, and 13 (16.5%) as SChypo. No death was notified among individuals who were classified as having overt thyroid disease. At baseline, serum FT4 levels were significantly higher (PZ0.018) among dead individuals than among those who were alive at the end of the follow-up, but no differences in TSH levels were found between the groups. Table 4 shows the relationship between STD and mortality. All-cause mortality was significantly higher in SChyper (20.3%) and SChypo (13.1%) individuals than in euthyroid (5.7%) individuals (P!0.0001). Kaplan–Meier analysis (Fig. 2) with the log-rank test 573 reveals higher overall mortality for both SChyper (P!0.0001) and SChypo (PZ0.0035) groups in comparison to the euthyroid group. Cardiovascular mortality was significantly associated with SChyper (P!0.0001). These differences emerged after 4 years of the follow-up. Cox regression analysis (Table 4) revealed that these significant associations were preserved even after adjusting for age, sex, and multiple potential confounders. Discussion In this study, we found a strong relationship between SChyper and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, while SChypo was significantly associated with all-cause mortality. These significant associations with mortality emerged after 4 years of follow-up. Table 3 Thyroid status, demographic characteristics, and biological variables according to vital status at the end of the follow-up. Data are presented as meanGS.D., unless noted otherwise. Variable Alive (nZ1031) Dead (nZ79) P value Euthyroidism Overt hyperthyroidism SChyper Overt hypothyroidism SChypo Men, n (%) Women, n (%) Mean age, years 861 (83.5) 20 (1.9) 55 (5.3) 9 (0.9) 86 (8.3) 472 (45.8) 559 (54.2) 56.1G12.2 52 (65.8) – 14 (17.7) – 13 (16.5) 47 (59.5) 32 (40.5) 67.7G11.3 !0.0001 Distribution of age, n (%) 30–39 years 40–49 years 50–59 years 60–69 years R70 years Survival time, years BMIa (kg/m2) Waist circumferencea (cm) Current smoker, n (%) Past smoker, n (%) Hypertension, n (%) Diabetes, n (%) PAD, n (%) CVD, (%) Statin usage, n (%) Systolic BP (mmHg) Diastolic BP (mmHg) UIC (mg/dl) TSH (mU/l) Free T4 (ng/dl) Fasting glucose (mg/dl) Two-hour glucose (mg/dl) Fasting insulin (pmol/l) HOMA-IRa Total cholesterol (mg/dl) LDL-c (mg/dl) HDL-c (mg/dl) Triglycerides (mg/dl) 95 (9.2) 225 (21.8) 297 (28.8) 264 (25.6) 150 (14.5) 7.3G0.3 25.1G3.8 84.2G10.3 125 (12.2) 193 (18.8) 379 (36.8) 366 (35.5) 129 (12.5) 133 (12.9) 19 (1.8) 132.0G24.0 79.0G13.3 20.7G10.5 2.5G9.2 1.1G0.5 124.3G33.9 165.5G78.2 61.7G49.3 2.8G2.6 214.8G40.9 130.9G37.9 50.8G10.9 233.7G189.8 1 (1.3) 4 (5.1) 14 (17.7) 21 (26.6) 39 (49.4) 4.1G2.0 24.1G4.3 84.7G11.3 12 (15.2) 15 (19.0) 48 (60.8) 40 (50.6) 13 (16.5) 23 (29.1) 1 (1.3) 145.3G27.4 80.6G14.2 19.7G9.0 2.4G2.8 1.13G0.2 127.1G36.9 189.3G85.1 52.7G36.8 2.4G2.1 207.3G50.8 124.3G36.6 48.2G10.1 208.1G109.7 0.02 !0.0001 !0.0001 !0.0001 0.03 0.8 0.72 !0.0001 0.007 0.31 !0.0001 1.0 !0.0001 0.47 0.56 0.86 0.018 0.63 0.006 0.09 0.11 0.02 0.1 0.04 0.6 SChyper, subclinical hyperthyroidism; SChypo, subclinical hypothyroidism; BMI, body mass index; PAD, peripheral arterial disease; CVD, cardiovascular disease; BP, blood pressure; UIC, urinary iodine concentration; TSH, thyrotropin; HOMA-IR, homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance; LDL-c, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; HDL-c, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. a Values were log-transformed for statistical analysis. www.eje-online.org 574 J A Sgarbi and others EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF ENDOCRINOLOGY (2010) 162 Table 4 Hazard ratios (95% confidence interval (CI)) for 7.5-year mortality due to all and cardiovascular causes among 1110 Japanese–Brazilians. Euthyroidism (nZ913) All-cause mortality, n (%) Crude Model 1 Model 2 Cardiovascular mortality, n (%) Crude Model 1 Model 2 52 (5.7) 1 1 1 26 (2.8) 1 1 1 Subclinical hyperthyroidism (nZ69) Subclinical hypothyroidism (nZ99) 14 (20.3) 4.0 (2.2–7.2) 3.4 (1.9–6.3) 3.0 (1.5–5.9) 8 (11.6) 4.5 (2.1–10.0) 3.7 (1.6–8.4) 3.3 (1.4–7.5) 13 (13.1) 2.2 (1.2–4.3) 2.2 (1.2–4.1) 2.3 (1.2–4.4) 5 (5.1) 1.8 (0.7–4.6) 1.7 (0.6–4.3) 1.6 (0.6–4.2) CI, confidence interval. Data are given as hazard ratio (95% CI). Model 1, adjusted for age and sex. Model 2, adjusted for Model 1 plus hypertension, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, total cholesterol, smoking status, and waist circumference. Despite differences in the population characteristics, these results are similar to those found by Parle et al. (23) and Gussekloo et al. (25), by having a significant association between mortality and SChyper, and because increased levels of FT4 were also associated with increased all-cause mortality. However, we could not confirm Gussekloo’s findings of lower mortality among octogenarians with increased TSH levels because our small number of individuals and events limited our power to detect significant associations in that age group. Such a strong association was also reported in a recent meta-analysis (34), in which SChyper was associated with a significant increase in the relative likelihood of death from all causes, whereas another meta-analysis found only a modest association (35). On the other hand, our findings disagree with previous studies (28, 29), which found no association between SChyper and mortality. These studies were larger and had a greater follow-up than the current cohort. Therefore, both had a lower prevalence of SChyper, and in one (28), analysis of death was based on only three events, limiting the power to detect an effect of SChyper on mortality. In the present report, SCHypo was significantly associated with death by all causes, but not with cardiovascular mortality. However, as can be noted in Table 4, the point estimates for association between SChypo and cardiovascular mortality ranged from 1.6 to 1.8 in the different models, but with very large CIs. The small number of cardiovascular deaths (five events) probably limited our ability to detect an association between SChypo and cardiovascular mortality, and these HRs might have been significant with a larger number of outcomes. These data partially agree with a Japanese study (24), although in such a study, the association between SChypo and mortality disappeared by the 10-year mark. Despite our shorter follow-up, we do not have any evidence of a similar outcome in our population, as the association between STD and mortality became more pronounced throughout the study (Fig. 2). In addition, comparisons between these cohorts should be done with www.eje-online.org caution, given that they have been exposed to different iodine intake, and because such a study (24) was highly selective in that it only included survivors of the atomic bomb. Our findings also agree with two recent meta-analyses (34, 35), but differ from others (36, 37) and from recent observational studies (28, 29); however, in one of them (29) the mean age of the population (72.7 years) was higher than that of our population. This difference is of particular importance since it has been suggested (38) that SChypo is associated with mortality in only relatively younger populations (%65 years). In this cohort, mortality was associated with some metabolic and clinical variables (Table 3); however, the causal role of STD for mortality remained significant, even after a multivariate analysis adjusted for all variables significantly related to mortality and for those classically known to have an association with mortality. Findings regarding the relationship between STD and mortality are very discrepant, mainly because confounders known to affect prognosis have not been carefully considered in many studies (37). The prevalence rates for STD in this population confirm previous epidemiological studies reporting an elevated prevalence of unsuspected STD in the general population (4–6). The prevalence of SChypo in this study was similar to that reported previously (4–6), while the rate of SChyper was higher than that reported for iodine-sufficient Western (4–6, 29) and Japanese populations (39, 40). The reason for this difference is not clear; however, similar findings were found in another Brazilian population study (41). It has been reported that 5 years of excessive iodine intake (1998– 2003) may have increased the prevalence of hyperthyroidism in Brazil (42), but only 17.5% of the Japanese– Brazilians had an increased UIC, and no difference in UIC was found among the thyroid categories. This population could be studied during a time when iodine supply was shifted from a mildly deficient to a sufficient or more than sufficient supply, but unfortunately no data for iodine status exist before the time of the study. There is a possibility of selection bias in having included EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF ENDOCRINOLOGY (2010) 162 Figure 2 Kaplan–Meier survival curves for all (A) and cardiovascular (B) causes of death in Japanese–Brazilians according to thyroid status. SChyper, subclinical hyperthyroidism; SChypo, subclinical hypothyroidism. *(A) Log-rank test; all causes of death, P!0.0001 for SChyper versus euthyroidism and PZ0.0035 for SChypo versus euthyroidism. †(B) Log-rank test; cardiovascular death, P!0.0001 for SChyper versus euthyroidism and PZ0.23 for SChypo versus euthyroidism. some individuals with nonthyroidal illness (43), but it is not very likely to be of significance in this study, since FT4 levels were significantly higher in individuals with SChyper than in euthyroid subjects (Table 2), which is consistent with mild thyroid hormone excess. Finally, the use of slimming pills, a common practice in Brazil (44), could have affected the prevalence of SChyper in our population, but participants did not report such use. No consistent association of STD with cardiometabolic risk factors was found at baseline in this study Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and mortality 575 (Table 2). These findings agree with some previous large population-based studies (4, 29, 45, 46), but differ from others (5, 6, 28). In two of these studies (6, 28), the difference disappeared after adjusting for other relevant risk factors, such as age, sex, and statin use. A metaanalysis (47) found a significant decrease in total serum cholesterol levels following L-T4 therapy, but most of the selected studies had a nonrandomized design. In contrast, a systematic review (48) found only marginal evidence indicating an association between thyroid hormone replacement and improvement in lipid profile. Recently, a randomized, double-blind, and crossover study of L-T4 and placebo (49) found that SChypo treated with L-T4 improved total cholesterol and LDL-c levels. Thus, there are no homogeneous data concerning the effects of SChypo on serum lipid levels. We found no association of STD with cardiovascular disease or with peripheral arterial disease at baseline in this study, which is similar to some studies (28, 29, 50). A modest association of SChypo with an increased risk of coronary heart disease at baseline and at follow-up has been found in different studies and meta-analyses (28, 35, 36, 45, 51), but the estimated risk was close to 1.0 when only higher quality studies were pooled (35). A recent analysis suggested that SChypo may be associated with increased cardiovascular risk only in middle-aged (!65 years old) individuals (38). Unfortunately, the small number of events eliminates the ability to perform meaningful analysis according to age in the present study. The major strength of our study lies in our inclusion of an entire population. In addition, participants were examined by thyroid experts, and individuals who selfreported thyroid diseases or were taking thyroid medications were excluded from the analysis; life status was obtained for all participants, and mortality risk was adjusted for multiple confounders. This study also has several limitations, including the fact that our data are based only on a baseline set of thyroid tests. Thus, we cannot exclude the possibility of influence determined by the progression from subclinical to overt thyroid dysfunction on the risk of mortality; however, this limitation is common to all previously published studies. We also had a relatively small number of cardiovascular deaths, decreasing the power of the analysis and our ability to detect an association with SChypo. Another limitation is the lack of analysis stratified according to age, sex, and TSH levels due to the small numbers of events. In addition, we are unable to exclude the possibility of overt thyrotoxicosis in some of our SChyper individuals, since T3 and FT3 serum levels were not determined in this study. Furthermore, cause of death was only based on death certificates without additional validation by hospital records for those who died in the hospital. Finally, we cannot guarantee the generalizability of the findings due to our selected population of Japanese–Brazilians. www.eje-online.org 576 J A Sgarbi and others In summary, SChyper is an independent risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, whereas SChypo is associated with increased all-cause mortality among Japanese–Brazilians. These findings suggest that further preventive strategies of treatment are necessary in order to reduce mortality associated with STD in the general population; however, to demonstrate some therapeutic benefit, large, well-designed, randomized, and placebocontrolled trials of STD treatment will be needed. Thus, while the treatment of STD persists as a nonevidencebased program, the choice between treating and not treating patients with persistent endogenous STD remains dependent on the best clinical judgment. Declaration of interest The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest that could be perceived as prejudicing the impartiality of the research reported. Funding The Japanese–Brazilian thyroid study was supported by an unrestricted grant from the São Paulo State Research Foundation (Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, FAPESP, grant 06/59737-9 to Dr Maciel). Acknowledgements We are grateful to the Japanese–Brazilian population and to the Japanese–Brazilian Diabetes Study Group, particularly to Drs Amélia Hirai and Sueli Gimeno. We gratefully acknowledge Dr Heloisa Villar for helping in the collection of clinical and thyroid data. We thank Sirlei Siani Morais for the statistical assistance. 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Gimeno SG, Ferreira SR, Franco LJ, Hirai AT, Matsumura L & Moisés RS. Prevalence and 7-year incidence of type II diabetes mellitus in a Japanese–Brazilian population: an alarming public health problem. Diabetologia 2002 45 1635–1638. Friedewald WT, Levy RJ & Fredrickson DS. Estimation of the concentration of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in plasma, without use of the preparative ultracentrifuge. Clinical Chemistry 1972 18 499–502. Esteves RZ, Kasamatsu TS, Kunii IS, Furuzawa GK, Vieira JGH & Maciel RMB. Development of a semi-automated method for measuring urinary iodine and its application in epidemiological studies in Brazilian school children. Arquivos Brasileiros de Endocrinologia e Metabologia 2007 51 1477–1484. Sacks D, Bakal CW, Beatty PT, Becker GJ, Cardella JF, Raabe RD, Wiener HM & Lewis CA. Position statement on the use of the ankle–brachial index in the evaluation of patients with peripheral vascular disease: a consensus statement developed by the standards division of the society of cardiovascular & interventional radiology. Journal of Vascular and Interventional Radiology 2002 13 353. Haentjens P, Meerhaeghe AV, Poppe K & Velkeniers B. Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and mortality: an estimate of relative and absolute excess all-cause mortality based on time-to-event data from cohort studies. European Journal of Endocrinology 2008 159 329–341. Ochs N, Auer R, Bauer DC, Nanchen D, Gussekloo J, Cornuz J & Rodondi N. Meta-analysis: subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk for coronary heart disease and mortality. Annals of Internal Medicine 2008 148 832–845. Rodondi N, Aujesky D, Vittinghoff E, Cornuz J & Bauer DC. Subclinical hypothyroidism and the risk of coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis. American Journal of Medicine 2006 119 541–551. Volzke H, Schwahn C, Wallaschofski H & Dorr M. Review: the association of thyroid dysfunction with all-cause and circulatory mortality: is there a causal relationship? Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism 2007 92 2421–2429. Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and mortality 577 38 Razvi S, Shakoor A, Vanderpump M, Weaver JU & Pearce SH. The influence of age on the relationship between subclinical hypothyroidism and ischemic heart disease: a metaanalysis. Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism 2008 93 2998–3007. 39 Okamura K, Nakashima T, Ueda K, Inoue K, Omae T & Fujishima M. Thyroid disorders in the general population of Hisayama Japan, with special reference to prevalence and sex differences. International Journal of Epidemiology 1987 16 545–549. 40 Konno N, Yuri K, Taguchi H, Miura K, Taguchi S, Hagiwara K & Murakami S. Screening for thyroid diseases in an iodine sufficient area with sensitive thyrotrophin assays, and serum thyroid autoantibody and urinary iodine determinations. Clinical Endocrinology 1993 38 273–281. 41 Sichieri R, Baima J, Henriques J, Vasconcellos M, Marante T, Kumagai S & Vaisman M. Prevalence of thyroid disease and positive antitiroperoxidase among 1,500 women 35 year old and older: a population-based survey in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Thyroid 2005 15 S-42 (abs 118). 42 Camargo RY, Tomimori EK, Neves SC, Rubio IGS, Galrão AL, Knobel M & Medeiros-Neto G. Thyroid and the environment: exposure to excessive nutritional iodine increases the prevalence of thyroid disorders in Sao Paulo, Brazil. European Journal of Endocrinology 2008 159 293–299. 43 Adler SM & Wartofsky L. The nonthyroidal illness syndrome. Endocrinology and Metabolism Clinics of North America 2007 36 657–672. 44 Sichieri R, Andrade R, Baima J, Henriques J & Vaisman M. TSH levels associated with slimming pill use in a population-based study of Brazilian women. Arquivos Brasileiros de Endocrinologia e Metabologia 2007 51 1448–1451. 45 Hak AE, Pols HA, Visser TJ, Drexhage HA, Hofman A & Witteman JC. Subclinical hypothyroidism is an independent risk factor for atherosclerosis and myocardial infarction in elderly women: the Rotterdam Study. Annals of Internal Medicine 2000 132 270–278. 46 Takashima N, Niwa Y, Mannami T, Tomoike H & Iwai N. Characterization of subclinical thyroid dysfunction from cardiovascular and metabolic viewpoints. The Suita Study. Circulation Journal 2007 71 191–195. 47 Danese MD, Ladenson PW, Meinert CL & Powe NR. Effect of thyroxine therapy on serum lipoproteins in patients with mild thyroid failure: a quantitative review of the literature. Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism 2000 85 2993–3001. 48 Villar HCCE, Saconato H, Valente O, Atallah AN. Thyroid hormone replacement for subclinical hypothyroidism (Cochrane Review CD003419). In: The Cochrane Library, Issue 3, 2007. 49 Razvi S, Ingoe L, Keeka G, Oates C, McMillan C & Weaver JU. The beneficial effect of L-thyroxine on cardiovascular risk factors, endothelial function, and quality of life in subclinical hypothyroidism: randomized, crossover trial. Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism 2007 92 1715–1723. 50 Vanderpump MP, Tunbridge WM, French JM, Appleton B, Bates D, Clark F, Grimley Evans J, Rodgers H, Tunbridge F & Young ET. The development of ischemic heart disease in relation to autoimmune thyroid disease in a 20-year follow-up study of an English community. Thyroid 1996 6 155–160. 51 Singh S, Duggal J, Molnar J, Maldonado F, Barsano CP & Arora R. Impact of subclinical thyroid disorders on coronary heart disease, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis. International Journal of Cardiology 2008 125 41–48. Received 26 November 2009 Accepted 2 December 2009 www.eje-online.org ANEXO 4 Trabalho No. 04 Subclinical hypothyroidism and the risk of coronary heart disease and mortality Nicolas Rodondi, Wendy P. J. den Elzen, Douglas C. Bauer, Anne R. Cappola, Salman Razvi, John P. Walsh, Bjørn O. Åsvold, Giorgio Iervasi, Misa Imaizumi, Team H. Collet, Alexandra Bremner, Patrick Maisonneuve, José A. Sgarbi, Khaw KT, Mark Vanderpump, Anne B. Newman, Jacques Cornuz, Jayne A. Franklyn, Westendorp RG, Eric Vittinghoff, Jacobijn Gussekloo; for the Thyroid Studies Collaboration “Journal of the American Medical Association” (JAMA 2010; 304:1365-1374) 59 REVIEW CLINICIAN’S CORNER Subclinical Hypothyroidism and the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease and Mortality Nicolas Rodondi, MD, MAS Wendy P. J. den Elzen, MSc Douglas C. Bauer, MD Anne R. Cappola, MD, ScM Salman Razvi, MD, FRCP John P. Walsh, MBBS, FRACP, PhD Bjørn O. Åsvold, MD, PhD Giorgio Iervasi, MD Misa Imaizumi, MD, PhD Tinh-Hai Collet, MD Alexandra Bremner, PhD Patrick Maisonneuve, Ing José A. Sgarbi, MD Kay-Tee Khaw, MD Mark P. J. Vanderpump, MD, FRCP Anne B. Newman, MD, MPH Jacques Cornuz, MD, MPH Jayne A. Franklyn, MD, PhD, FRCP Rudi G. J. Westendorp, MD, PhD Eric Vittinghoff, PhD Jacobijn Gussekloo, MD, PhD for the Thyroid Studies Collaboration C ONTROVERSY PERSISTS ON THE indications for screening and threshold levels of thyroidstimulating hormone (TSH) for treatment of subclinical hypothyroidism,1-3 defined as elevated serum TSH levels with normal thyroxine (T4) concentrations. Because subclinical hypothyroidism has been associated with hypercholesterolemia4 and atherosclerosis,5 See also Patient Page. CME available online at www.jamaarchivescme.com and questions on p 1392. Context Data regarding the association between subclinical hypothyroidism and cardiovascular disease outcomes are conflicting among large prospective cohort studies. This might reflect differences in participants’ age, sex, thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels, or preexisting cardiovascular disease. Objective To assess the risks of coronary heart disease (CHD) and total mortality for adults with subclinical hypothyroidism. Data Sources and Study Selection The databases of MEDLINE and EMBASE (1950 to May 31, 2010) were searched without language restrictions for prospective cohort studies with baseline thyroid function and subsequent CHD events, CHD mortality, and total mortality. The reference lists of retrieved articles also were searched. Data Extraction Individual data on 55 287 participants with 542 494 person-years of follow-up between 1972 and 2007 were supplied from 11 prospective cohorts in the United States, Europe, Australia, Brazil, and Japan. The risk of CHD events was examined in 25 977 participants from 7 cohorts with available data. Euthyroidism was defined as a TSH level of 0.50 to 4.49 mIU/L. Subclinical hypothyroidism was defined as a TSH level of 4.5 to 19.9 mIU/L with normal thyroxine concentrations. Results Among 55 287 adults, 3450 had subclinical hypothyroidism (6.2%) and 51 837 had euthyroidism. During follow-up, 9664 participants died (2168 of CHD), and 4470 participants had CHD events (among 7 studies). The risk of CHD events and CHD mortality increased with higher TSH concentrations. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, the hazard ratio (HR) for CHD events was 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.861.18) for a TSH level of 4.5 to 6.9 mIU/L (20.3 vs 20.3/1000 person-years for participants with euthyroidism), 1.17 (95% CI, 0.96-1.43) for a TSH level of 7.0 to 9.9 mIU/L (23.8/1000 person-years), and 1.89 (95% CI, 1.28-2.80) for a TSH level of 10 to 19.9 mIU/L (n=70 events/235; 38.4/1000 person-years; P⬍.001 for trend). The corresponding HRs for CHD mortality were 1.09 (95% CI, 0.91-1.30; 5.3 vs 4.9/ 1000 person-years for participants with euthyroidism), 1.42 (95% CI, 1.03-1.95; 6.9/ 1000 person-years), and 1.58 (95% CI, 1.10-2.27, n=28 deaths/333; 7.7/1000 personyears; P=.005 for trend). Total mortality was not increased among participants with subclinical hypothyroidism. Results were similar after further adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Risks did not significantly differ by age, sex, or preexisting cardiovascular disease. Conclusions Subclinical hypothyroidism is associated with an increased risk of CHD events and CHD mortality in those with higher TSH levels, particularly in those with a TSH concentration of 10 mIU/L or greater. www.jama.com JAMA. 2010;304(12):1365-1374 screening and treatment have been advocated to prevent cardiovascular disease.3 However, data on the associations with coronary heart disease (CHD) events and mortality are conflicting among several large prospective cohorts.6-9 Three recent study-level metaanalyses10-12 found modestly increased ©2010 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. risks for CHD and mortality, but with heterogeneity among individual studies that used different TSH cutoffs, difAuthor Affiliations are listed at the end of this article. Corresponding Author: Nicolas Rodondi, MD, MAS, Department of Ambulatory Care and Community Medicine, University of Lausanne, Bugnon 44, 1011 Lausanne, Switzerland ([email protected]). (Reprinted) JAMA, September 22/29, 2010—Vol 304, No. 12 Downloaded from jama.ama-assn.org by guest on 14 December 2010 1365 SUBCLINICAL HYPOTHYROIDISM AND RISK OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE, MORTALITY ferent confounding factors for adjustment, and varying CHD definitions.10 Part of the heterogeneity might also be related to differences in participants’ age, sex, or severity of subclinical hypothyroidism (as measured by TSH level).4 One cohort study suggested particularly high risk in participants with subclinical hypothyroidism and preexisting cardiovascular disease.8 Analysis of individual participant data from large cohort studies may reconcile these conflicting data and define the influence of age, TSH levels, and preexisting cardiovascular disease. Individual participant data analysis is considered the best way for synthesizing evidence across several studies because it is not subject to potential bias from study-level meta-analyses (ecological fallacy)13 and allows performance of time-to-event analyses.14 To clarify the cardiovascular risk of subclinical hypothyroidism, we formed the Thyroid Studies Collaboration and conducted an individual participant data analysis of subclinical hypothyroidism and CHD outcomes. METHODS Identification of potential studies was based on protocols developed for our study-level meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.10 Briefly, we conducted a systematic literature search of articles in all languages on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and CHD or mortality (cardiovascular and total) published from 1950 to May 31, 2010, in the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases and searched bibliographies of key articles (details are available in the eMethods at http://www .jama.com). To maximize the quality and comparability of the studies, we formulated general inclusion criteria a priori. We included only full-text, published longitudinal cohort studies that (1) measured thyroid function with both serum TSH level and thyroxine (T4) level at baseline in adults, (2) followed up participants systematically over time, (3) assessed CHD events and/or mortality, and (4) had a comparison group with euthyroidism. We excluded studies that only examined persons taking antithyroid medications, thyroxine replacement or amiodarone, or with overt hypothyroidism (defined as low T4 and elevated TSH concentrations). Possible studies for inclusion were independently assessed for suitability by 2 of the authors (N.R., J.G.) and any disagreement was resolved by discussion with a third author (D.C.B). The agreement between the 2 reviewers was 99.9% for the first screen (titles and abstracts, =0.98) and 100% for the full-text screen (=1.00). Investigators from each eligible study were invited to join the Thyroid Studies Collaboration. We collected detailed informationaboutprespecifiedoutcomes and potential confounding variables for each participant. Requested data included individual demographic characteristics, baseline thyroid function (TSH and T4 levels), baseline cardiovascular risk factors (eg, low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, diabetes, blood pressure, cigarette smoking), prevalent cardiovascular disease, medication use at baseline (thyroid medication, lipid-lowering and antihypertensive drugs), and outcome data. To maximize the comparability of the studies, we used a common definition of subclinical hypothyroidism. Based on expert reviews1,2 and definitions used in the Cardiovascular Health Study,6,15 we defined subclinical hypothyroidism as a serum TSH level of 4.5 mIU/L or greater to less than 20 mIU/L, with a normal T4 concentration;andeuthyroidismwasdefined as a serum TSH level of 0.5 mIU/L or greater and less than 4.5 mIU/L. Because the Whickham Survey used a firstgeneration TSH radioimmunoassay, which gives higher measured TSH values than current assays,16 a TSH range of 6.0 mIU/L or greater to less than 21.5 mIU/L was used for this individual participant data analyses, as in the original and recent analysis of this study.17,18 In thatstudy,aserumTSHlevelof6.0mIU/L corresponded to the 97.5th percentile of the group with negative thyroid antibodies,18 which is close to the modern level of 4.5 mIU/L for the current generation of assays. For T4 level, we used site- and 1366 JAMA, September 22/29, 2010—Vol 304, No. 12 (Reprinted) method-dependent specific cutoffs (eTable at http://www.jama.com) because T4 measurements show greater intermethod variation than do sensitive TSH assays. The Whickham Survey measured total T4 level.18 Participants with abnormal T4 values, results suggestive of nonthyroidal illness (low TSH and FT4 levels) or low TSH level (⬍0.5 mIU/L) were excluded (n=3023). Some studies had participants with missing T4 values (eTable); we considered participants with a TSH level of 4.5 mIU/L to 19.9 mIU/L and a missing T4 level as having subclinical hypothyroidism because most adults with this degree of TSH elevation have subclinical and not overt hypothyroidism. 1 9 We performed a sensitivity analysis excluding those with a missing T4 level. Outcome measures were CHD events, CHD mortality, and total mortality. To limit outcome heterogeneity observed with previous study-level meta-analyses,10-12 we used more homogeneous outcome definitions. Similar to the current Framingham risk score,20 we limited cardiovascular mortality to CHD mortality or sudden death (eTable). A CHD event was defined as nonfatal myocardial infarction or CHD death (equivalent to hard events in the Framingham risk score20) and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization (coronary artery bypass grafting or angioplasty). 6 We performed a sensitivity analysis with hard events only. Using previously described criteria10 and new information from study authors, we systematically evaluated the following key indicators of study quality13: methods of outcome adjudication and ascertainment, accounting for confounders, and completeness of follow-up ascertainment. Two reviewers (N.R., J.G.) rated all studies for quality. We used separate Cox proportional hazard models to assess the associations of subclinical hypothyroidism with CHD events and mortality for each cohort (SAS version 9.2, SAS Institute Inc, Cary, North Carolina). Pooled estimates for each outcome were calculated using random-effects models, based ©2010 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. Downloaded from jama.ama-assn.org by guest on 14 December 2010 SUBCLINICAL HYPOTHYROIDISM AND RISK OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE, MORTALITY on the variance model according to DerSimonian and Laird,21 as recommended14,22 and published in recent 2-stage individual participant data analyses.23 Results were summarized using forest plots (Review Manager version 5.0.24, Nordic Cochrane Centre, Copenhagen, Denmark). The research authors of 1 study with 14 CHD outcomes 5,10 declined to participate; as recommended,24 we included the published summary estimate from that study in the random-effects models in a sensitivity analysis. To assess heterogeneity across studies, we used the I2 statistic, which describes the total variation across studies attributable to heterogeneity rather than chance (I2⬎50% indicating at least moderate statistical heterogeneity).25 Primary analyses were adjusted for age and sex, and then for traditional cardiovascular risk factors (systolic blood pressure, smoking, total cholesterol, diabetes) that were available in all cohorts (except for the Birmingham Study,26 which was excluded from this analysis). We considered the age- and sex-adjusted model as the primary analysis because some traditional risk factors are potential mediators of the relationship between subclinical hypothyroidism and CHD.4 To explore sources of heterogeneity, we performed several predefined subgroup and sensitivity analyses. We conducted stratified analyses by age, sex, race, TSH concentrations, and preexisting cardiovascular disease. Based on expert reviews1,2 and previous studies,7,15 subclinical hypothyroidism was stratified according to the following TSH concentration categories: 4.5-6.9 mIU/L (mild elevation), 7.0-9.9 mIU/L (moderate elevation), and 10.0-19.9 mIU/L (marked elevation). In the study-specific analyses stratified by age or TSH level, some strata had participants without either CHD deaths or CHD events (for 1 study27). For these study-specific analyses, we used penalized likelihood methods28 to obtain hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs). As done in previous studies,7,27,29 after including all participants in the primary analyses, we performed sensitivity analyses exclud- ing participants who had thyroid hormone use at baseline and during followup. To calculate age- and sex-adjusted rates per 1000 person-years, we first fit Poisson models30 to the pooled data, then standardized the fitted rate in the euthyroidism group to the overall age and sex distribution of the pooled sample. Finally, to obtain rates in the TSH groups consistent with the meta-analytic results, we multiplied the standardized rates in the euthyroidism group by the summary meta-analytic HRs. We checked the proportional hazard assumption using graphical methods and Schoenfeld tests (all P⬎.05). We used the Egger test31 and age- and sex-adjusted funnel plots to assess for publication bias. RESULTS Among 4440 reports identified, 12 prospective studies met eligibility criteria (eFigure at http://www.jama.com) and 11 prospective cohorts in the United States, Europe, Australia, Brazil, and Japan agreed to provide individual participant data (TABLE 1). The final sample included 55 287 adults comprising 3450 with subclinical hypothyroidism (6.2%) and 51 837 with euthyroidism. Zero to 8.3% of participants reported thyroid hormone use at baseline (all excluded in 5 studies) and 0% to 12.6% reported thyroid hormone use during follow-up. The median follow-up ranged from 2.5 to 20 years, with total follow-up of 542 494 person-years. All 11 cohort studies reported total and CHD deaths, and 7 studies also reported CHD events among 25 977 participants. For the quality of individual studies, all studies reported outcome adjudication without knowledge of thyroid status; 4 of 7 studies reporting CHD events used formal adjudication procedures6-8,27; and 4 of 11 studies reporting CHD deaths mainly used death certificates.26,33-35 All studies had 5% or less loss to follow-up. During follow-up, 9664 participants died (2168 of CHD) and 4470 participants had CHD events (among 7 studies). In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, the overall HR for participants with subclinical hypothyroidism compared with ©2010 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. euthyroidism was 1.18 (95% CI, 0.991.42) for CHD events (24.0 vs 20.3/ 1000 person-years for participants with euthyroidism), 1.14 (95% CI, 0.991.32) for CHD mortality (5.5 vs 4.9/ 1000 person-years), and 1.09 (95% CI, 0.96-1.24) for total mortality (23.1 vs 21.1/1000 person-years; FIGURE 1). We found heterogeneity across studies for CHD events (I2 =59%) and total mortality (I2 =66%), but not for CHD mortality (I2 =0%). We subsequently examined whether heterogeneity was related to differences in risks by degree of subclinical hypothyroidism and age. The risk of CHD events (P⬍.001 for trend) and CHD death (P =.005 for trend) increased with higher TSH level, but not for total mortality (FIGURE 2). In stratified analyses, participants with TSH levels of 10 mIU/L or greater had significantly increased risk of CHD events (HR, 1.89 [95% CI, 1.28-2.80]; n=70 events/235; 38.4 vs 20.3/1000 personyears for participants with euthyroidism) and CHD mortality (HR, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.10-2.27]; n = 28 deaths/ 333; 7.7 vs 4.9/1000 person-years) compared with participants with euthyroidism. The risk for CHD associated with subclinical hypothyroidism appeared to be somewhat higher in younger participants, but the number of outcomes in the younger age group was small, and there was no significant trend in CHD risk across age groups. Otherwise, the risk estimates for CHD events, CHD mortality, and total mortality did not differ significantly according to age, sex, race, or preexisting cardiovascular disease, except an increase in CHD events and CHD mortality among white but not among nonwhite participants with subclinical hypothyroidism (TABLE 2). All results were similar after further adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Sensitivity analyses yielded similar results, with increased risks of CHD events and mortality in those with TSH levels of 10 mIU/L or greater (TABLE 3). Risk estimates were slightly higher for those with TSH levels of 10 mIU/L or greater after excluding those who took thyroid medication during follow-up. (Reprinted) JAMA, September 22/29, 2010—Vol 304, No. 12 Downloaded from jama.ama-assn.org by guest on 14 December 2010 1367 SUBCLINICAL HYPOTHYROIDISM AND RISK OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE, MORTALITY COMMENT In this analysis of 55 287 individual participants from 11 prospective cohort studies, subclinical hypothyroidism was associated with an increased risk of CHD events and CHD mortality in those with higher TSH levels. There was a significant trend of increased risk at higher serum TSH concentrations, and the risk of both CHD mortality and CHD events was significantly increased in participants with TSH levels of 10 mIU/L or greater. These associations persisted after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, and did not significantly differ by age, Estimates were lower for subclinical hypothyroidism overall after limiting the analyses to 4 studies with formal adjudication procedures, but slightly higher for those with TSH levels of 10 mIU/L or greater. The effect of increasing TSH level on CHD events did not significantly differ according to age (P=.87 for interaction). We found no evidence of publication bias, either with visual assessment of age- and sex-adjusted funnel plots or with the Egger test for mortality data (P = .39 for CHD mortality and P=.97 for total mortality) and little evidence of publication bias for CHD events (P=.13 for CHD events). sex, race, or preexisting cardiovascular disease. Compared with participants with euthyroidism, the overall HR for CHD events with subclinical hypothyroidism was 1.18 (95% CI, 0.991.42) and the overall HR for CHD mortality was 1.14 (95% CI, 0.99-1.32). Minimal TSH elevations were not associated with an increased risk of CHD events and CHD mortality. Our results clarify the CHD risk of subgroups of adults with subclinical hypothyroidism, which could not be adequately addressed in previous studylevel meta-analyses10-12 or in single cohort studies performed in more lim- Table 1. Baseline Characteristics of Individuals in Included Studies (N=55 287) Thyroid Medication Use, No. (%) No. (%) Study Description of Study Sample No. Age, Median (Range), y a Cardiovascular Health Study,6 2006 CDAs with Medicare eligibility in 4 US communities 3003 71 (64-100) Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study,7 2005 CDAs aged 70-79 y with Medicare eligibility in 2 US communities 2660 74 (69-81) 1098 68 (60-94) 12 617 24 590 Birmingham CDAs aged ⱖ60 y from Study,26 2001 primary care practice in Birmingham, England EPIC-Norfolk Adults aged 45-79 y living Study,32 2010 in Norfolk, England HUNT Study,33 2008 Adults aged ⬎40 y living in Nord-Trøndelag County, Norway All adults aged 85 y living in Leiden 85-plus Leiden, the Netherlands Study,27 2004 8 Women Subclinical At During Hypothyroidism Baseline c Follow-up United States 1803 (60.0) 492 (16.4) Follow-up b Start, y Duration, Median Person(IQR), y Years 0 153 (5.1) 1989-1990 13.9 (8.7-16.4) 36 865 335 (12.6) 222 (8.3) 334 (12.6) 1997 8.3 (7.3-8.4) 19 410 Europe 622 (56.6) 92 (8.4) 0 28 (2.6) 1988 10.2 (5.9-10.6) 9030 58 (39-78) 6828 (54.1) 720 (5.7) 0 NA 1995-1998 55 (41-98) 16 744 (68.1) 814 (3.3) 0 NA 1995-1997 8.3 (7.9-8.9) 200 334 16 (3.3) 1997-1999 5.2 (2.5-8.5) 2624 2000-2006 2.5 (1.6-3.7) 7710 1338 (50.3) 486 85 (NA) 318 (65.4) 35 (7.2) 14 (2.9) 12.7 153 845 (12.0-13.6) Pisa cohort, 2007 Patients admitted to cardiology department in Pisa, Italy d 2875 63 (19-92) 921 (32.0) 228 (7.9) 12 (0.4) Whickham Survey,17,18 1996, 2010 Adults living in and near Newcastle upon Tyne, England 2406 46 (18-92) 1284 (53.4) 124 (5.2) 99 (4.1) 73 (3.0) 1972-1974 19 (15-20) 39 084 Busselton Health Study,9 2005 Adults living in Busselton, Western Australia 1984 51 (18-90) 89 (4.5) 15 (0.8) 33 (1.7) 1981 20.0 (19.4-20.0) 35 158 Atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki Adult Nagasaki, Japan Health Study,34 2004 2591 57 (38-92) 420 (16.2) 33 (1.3) 6 (0.2) 1984-1987 13.1 (12.3-13.7) 31 559 977 56 (30-92) NA 1999-2000 7.3 (7.0-7.5) Brazilian Thyroid Adults of Japanese descent Study,35 2010 living in São Paulo, Brazil Australia 973 (49.0) Asia 1586 (61.2) South America 518 (53.0) 101 (10.3) 0 0 6875 Abbreviations: CDA, community-dwelling adult; IQR, interquartile range (25th-75th percentiles); NA, data not available. a Participants younger than 18 years were not included. b For all cohorts, the maximal follow-up data that were available were used, which might differ from previous reports for some cohorts. c The numbers of participants with thyroid medication use and thyroid-stimulating hormone levels of 10 mIU/L or greater were 12 of 222 in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study; 3 of 14 in the Leiden 85-plus Study; 12 of 12 in the Pisa cohort; 2 of 99 in the Whickham Survey; 2 of 15 in the Busselton Health Study; and 2 of 33 in the Nagasaki Adult Health Study. d Excluded patients with acute coronary syndrome or severe illness. 1368 JAMA, September 22/29, 2010—Vol 304, No. 12 (Reprinted) ©2010 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. Downloaded from jama.ama-assn.org by guest on 14 December 2010 SUBCLINICAL HYPOTHYROIDISM AND RISK OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE, MORTALITY participant characteristics (eg, age, TSH concentrations) because of potential bias without individual participant data analysis (ecological fallacy),13 and they also were limited by clinical heterogeneity,10,36 with individual studies using varying TSH cutoffs, confounding factors for adjustment, and CHD definitions. Among 11 cohorts, only 2 studies previously reported results stratified ited age groups or without TSH stratification.6,7,26,27 These results are generally consistent with previous study-level metaanalyses showing modest increased risks of CHD events and cardiovascular mortality associated with subclinical hypothyroidism.10,11 However, these meta-analyses could not accurately explore potential differences related to by TSH level. One study9 reported an increased risk of CHD events in participants with a TSH level of 10.0 mIU/L or greater (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4.2) and the other study7 reported an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR, 2.26; 95% CI, 0.54-9.45) but not CHD events (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.35-2.61) over 4 years among adults aged 70 to 79 years with TSH levels of Figure 1. Subclinical Hypothyroidism vs Euthyroidism for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Events, CHD Mortality, and Total Mortality a Subclinical Hypothyroidism No. of Events 180 CHD Eventsb Cardiovascular Health Study,6 2006 Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study,7 2005 EPIC-Norfolk Study,32 2010 Leiden 85-plus Study,27 2004 No. of Participants 492 Euthyroidism No. of Events 955 No. of Participants 2511 HR (95% CI) 1.00 (0.85-1.17) 62 335 493 2325 0.89 (0.68-1.16) 17.4 103 720 1575 11 897 1.09 (0.89-1.33) 20.8 4.5 7 35 76 449 1.29 (0.59-2.80) Pisa cohort,8 2007 20 228 148 2647 1.72 (1.07-2.74) 9.7 Whickham Survey,17,18 1996, 2010 27 121 438 2239 1.32 (0.89-1.96) 11.9 Busselton Health Study,9 2005 31 89 355 1889 1.78 (1.22-2.58) 12.8 430 2020 4040 23 957 1.18 (0.99-1.42) 100.0 Total (I 2 = 59%) Decreased Risk Weight, % 22.9 0.2 0.5 Increased Risk 1 2 5 2 5 2 5 HR (95% CI) CHD Mortalityc Cardiovascular Health Study,6 2006 75 491 365 2511 1.09 (0.85-1.40) Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study,7 2005 19 335 156 2325 0.85 (0.53-1.37) 33.8 9.2 Birmingham Study,26 2001 11 92 113 1006 1.21 (0.64-2.29) 5.2 EPIC-Norfolk Study,32 2010 31 720 422 11 897 1.19 (0.83-1.72) 15.6 HUNT Study,33 2008 24 814 375 23 776 1.09 (0.72-1.65) 12.1 3 35 41 446 0.87 (0.27-2.82) 1.5 Pisa cohort,8 2007 14 228 92 2647 1.91 (1.08-3.36) 6.6 Whickham Survey,17,18 1996, 2010 16 124 223 2282 1.08 (0.64-1.81) 7.8 Busselton Health Study,9 2005 13 89 144 1892 1.67 (0.94-2.97) 6.3 Leiden 85-plus Study,27 2004 Nagasaki Adult Health Study,34 2004 Total (I 2 = 0%) 4 420 27 2171 0.67 (0.23-1.91) 1.9 210 3348 1958 50 953 1.14 (0.99-1.32) 100.0 0.2 0.5 1 HR (95% CI) Total Mortality Cardiovascular Health Study,6 2006 Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study,7 2005 310 492 1514 2511 1.07 (0.95-1.21) 13.8 92 335 699 2325 0.89 (0.72-1.11) 11.0 Birmingham Study,26 2001 32 92 435 1006 0.92 (0.64-1.33) 7.1 EPIC-Norfolk Study,32 2010 108 720 1716 11 897 0.97 (0.80-1.18) 11.6 HUNT Study,33 2008 116 814 2159 23 776 0.99 (0.82-1.19) 11.9 Leiden 85-plus Study,27 2004 26 35 364 451 0.85 (0.57-1.27) 6.4 Pisa cohort,8 2007 39 228 238 2647 2.13 (1.52-3.00) 7.6 Whickham Survey,17,18 1996, 2010 49 124 681 2282 0.98 (0.73-1.31) 8.7 Busselton Health Study,9 2005 36 89 479 1895 1.44 (1.02-2.03) 7.6 Nagasaki Adult Health Study,34 2004 94 420 409 2171 1.04 (0.83-1.31) 10.8 Brazilian Thyroid Study,35 2010 13 101 55 876 1.96 (1.07-3.61) 3.6 915 3450 8749 51 837 1.09 (0.96-1.24) 100.0 Total (I 2 = 66%) 0.2 0.5 1 HR (95% CI) a The sizes of the data markers are proportional to the inverse variance of the hazard ratios (HRs). CI indicates confidence interval; HUNT, Nord-Trøndelag Health Study; HR, hazard ratio. b Forty-six participants from the Whickham survey and 3 participants from the Busselton Health Study were not included because follow-up data were only available for death. c Nine participants were excluded from the analysis because of missing cause of death. The Brazilian Thyroid Study was not included in this analysis because of unreliable es- timates based on the small number of CHD deaths (n=10). ©2010 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. (Reprinted) JAMA, September 22/29, 2010—Vol 304, No. 12 Downloaded from jama.ama-assn.org by guest on 14 December 2010 1369 SUBCLINICAL HYPOTHYROIDISM AND RISK OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE, MORTALITY Our individual participant data analysis found that the CHD outcomes in adults with subclinical hypothyroidism did not differ significantly across age groups. For the specific age group of 80 years or older, there was no significant increased risk of total mortality, CHD mortality, or CHD events in contrast to a single previous study that found reduced mortality associated with increas- 10 mIU/L or greater. However, the HR for CHD events increased to 1.28 (95% CI, 0.68-2.39) with extended follow-up to 8 years in the present data. In overall pooled data, we found statistical heterogeneity among individual study findings for CHD events (I2 =59%), but not for CHD death. Part of the heterogeneity might be related to different CHD risks across age, race, and TSH subgroups. ing TSH concentrations.27,37 Previous study-level meta-analyses have found increased risks of CHD events and cardiovascular mortality associated with subclinical hypothyroidism, particularly in studies with a mean age of younger than 65 years,10,11 but this was not confirmed by our individual participant data analysis. We found some evidence for increased risks of CHD events and mor- Figure 2. Hazard Ratios (HRs) for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Events, CHD Mortality, and Total Mortality According to Elevated Thyroid-Stimulating Hormone (TSH) Categories and Subclinical Hypothyroidism Stratified by Age vs Euthyroidism a CHD Events by TSH Level, mIU/Lb 0.5-4.49 No. of Events 4040 No. of Participants 23 957 HR Ratio (95% CI) 1 [Reference] 4.5-6.9 264 1344 1.00 (0.86-1.18) 7.0-9.9 96 441 1.17 (0.96-1.43) 10-19.9 70 235 1.89 (1.28-2.80) Decreased Risk Increased Risk P<.001 for trend CHD Mortality by TSH Level, mIU/Lc 0.5-4.49 1958 50 953 4.5-6.9 132 2363 1.09 (0.91-1.30) 7.0-9.9 50 652 1.42 (1.03-1.95) 10-19.9 28 333 1 [Reference] 1.58 (1.10-2.27) P = .005 for trend Total Mortality by TSH Level, mIU/Ld 0.5-4.49 8749 51 837 4.5-6.9 640 2431 1.06 (0.96-1.17) 1 [Reference] 7.0-9.9 170 672 1.02 (0.84-1.24) 10-19.9 105 347 1.22 (0.80-1.87) P = .39 for trend 0.2 0.5 1 2 5 HR (95% CI) Subclinical Hypothyroidism CHD Events, by Age, yb 18-49 No. of Events 12 No. of Participants 221 Euthyroidism No. of Events 272 No. of Participants 5405 HR Ratio (95% CI) 1.46 (0.82-2.62) 50-64 54 517 997 7876 1.13 (0.73-1.77) 65-79 322 1158 2511 9668 1.20 (0.95-1.51) 42 124 260 1008 1.30 (0.93-1.82) ≥80 CHD Mortality, by Age, y c 18-49 2 444 54 13 560 2.13 (0.74-6.14) 16 1072 316 18 513 1.30 (0.81-2.08) 65-79 163 1608 1288 16 567 1.32 (1.08-1.62) 29 224 300 2313 1.01 (0.62-1.63) Total Mortality, by Age, y d 18-49 Increased Risk P = .78 for trend 50-64 ≥80 Decreased Risk P = .22 for trend 14 465 340 13 832 50-64 108 1121 1492 18 875 1.17 (0.90-1.51) 65-79 623 1636 5316 16 785 1.17 (0.99-1.39) ≥80 170 228 1601 2345 0.96 (0.81-1.12) 1.31 (0.76-2.26) P = .29 for trend 0.2 0.5 1 2 5 HR (95% CI) a The sizes of the filled square data markers are proportional to the inverse variance of the HRs. The unfilled squares indicate the reference categories. For the analyses stratified by age, the HRs for CHD events, CHD mortality, and total mortality were adjusted for sex and age as a continuous variable to avoid residual confounding within age strata. CI indicates confidence interval. b Data were available from 7 studies. c Data were available from 10 studies. The Brazilian Thyroid Study was not included because of unreliable estimates based on the small number of CHD deaths (n=10). Nine participants were excluded from the analysis because of missing cause of death. d Data were available from 11 studies. 1370 JAMA, September 22/29, 2010—Vol 304, No. 12 (Reprinted) ©2010 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. Downloaded from jama.ama-assn.org by guest on 14 December 2010 SUBCLINICAL HYPOTHYROIDISM AND RISK OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE, MORTALITY tality in younger adults with subclinical hypothyroidism, but there also were large 95% CIs without significant trend across age groups (Figure 2). Moreover, the effect of increasing TSH level on CHD events did not significantly differ according to age. In contrast to a previous study The increased risk of CHD events associated with higher TSH levels in our study might be related to the known effects of thyroid hormone on the heart and metabolism, consistent with the concept that subclinical hypothyroidism is a milder form of overt hypothyroid- suggesting that adults with subclinical hypothyroidism and preexisting cardiovascular disease might be at particularly high cardiovascular risk,8 we found no significant effect of baseline preexisting cardiovascular disease on outcomes. Table 2. Stratified Analyses for the Associations Between Subclinical Hypothyroidism and Risk of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Events, CHD Mortality, and Total Mortality CHD Events a CHD Mortality b HR (95% CI) No. of Events/ Total Participants Adjusted for Age and Sex Multivariate Model c 4470/25 977 1.18 (0.99-1.42) Men d 2642/12 531 Women d 1828/13 446 Total population P for interaction Total Mortality HR (95% CI) No. of Events/ Total Participants Adjusted for Age and Sex Multivariate Model c 1.18 (0.99-1.40) 2168/54 301 1.14 (0.99-1.32) 1.06 (0.90-1.25) 1.06 (0.91-1.25) 1246/21 889 1.21 (0.99-1.48) 1.23 (0.99-1.52) 922/32 412 .32 .27 HR (95% CI) No. of Events/ Total Participants Adjusted for Age and Sex Multivariate Model c 1.15 (0.99-1.34) 9664/55 287 1.09 (0.96-1.24) 1.13 (0.98-1.29) 1.14 (0.90-1.43) 1.12 (0.90-1.39) 4851/22 352 1.13 (0.93-1.36) 1.14 (0.93-1.39) 1.21 (0.99-1.47) 1.24 (1.01-1.53) 4813/32 935 1.06 (0.95-1.19) 1.09 (0.98-1.21) .71 .51 .58 .70 Age, y e 18-49 284/5626 1.46 (0.82-2.62) 1.55 (0.87-2.78) 56/14 004 2.13 (0.74-6.14) 2.49 (0.87-7.19) 354/14 297 1.31 (0.76-2.26) 1.44 (0.84-2.48) 50-64 1051/8393 1.13 (0.73-1.77) 1.11 (0.75-1.66) 332/19 585 1.30 (0.81-2.08) 1.32 (0.79-2.18) 1600/19 996 1.17 (0.90-1.51) 1.22 (0.91-1.65) 65-79 2833/10 826 1.20 (0.95-1.51) 1.21 (0.96-1.52) 1451/18 175 1.32 (1.08-1.62) 1.33 (1.07-1.65) 5939/18 421 1.17 (0.99-1.39) 1.22 (1.03-1.45) 302/1132 1.30 (0.93-1.82) 1.24 (0.89-1.73) 329/2537 1.01 (0.62-1.63) 0.98 (0.60-1.60) 1771/2573 0.96 (0.81-1.12) 0.94 (0.80-1.11) .78 .58 .22 .12 .29 .15 4193/24 746 1.20 (1.02-1.42) 1.20 (1.02-1.40) 1905/49 381 1.18 (1.01-1.38) 1.19 (1.02-1.39) 8142/49 390 1.10 (0.94-1.28) 1.11 (0.95-1.29) Black 277/1231 0.75 (0.48-1.19) 0.73 (0.46-1.17) 108/1231 0.67 (0.31-1.44) 0.59 (0.25-1.37) 484/1231 0.94 (0.69-1.29) 0.96 (0.70-1.32) Asian NA NA NA 31/2591 0.67 (0.23-1.91) 0.67 (0.23-1.95) 571/3568 1.34 (0.73-2.46) 1.39 (0.78-2.46) .05 .05 .23 .18 .52 .51 ⱖ80 P for trend Race f White P for interaction TSH, mIU/L 0.5-4.49 4040/23 957 1 [Reference] 1 [Reference] 1958/50 953 1 [Reference] 1 [Reference] 8749/51 837 1 [Reference] 1 [Reference] 4.5-6.9 264/1344 1.00 (0.86-1.18) 1.01 (0.86-1.18) 132/2363 1.09 (0.91-1.30) 1.06 (0.88-1.28) 640/2431 1.06 (0.96-1.17) 1.07 (0.96-1.20) 7.0-9.9 96/441 1.17 (0.96-1.43) 1.22 (0.99-1.49) 50/652 1.42 (1.03-1.95) 1.53 (1.13-2.07) 170/672 1.02 (0.84-1.24) 1.11 (0.92-1.33) 10.0-19.9 70/235 1.89 (1.28-2.80) 1.86 (1.22-2.82) 28/333 1.58 (1.10-2.27) 1.54 (1.07-2.23) 105/347 1.22 (0.80-1.87) 1.24 (0.82-1.87) ⬍.001 .002 .005 .005 .39 .29 1282/4263 1.17 (0.94-1.47) 1.09 (0.90-1.31) 590/4390 1.30 (0.98-1.72) 1.28 (0.99-1.66) 1649/4523 1.08 (0.87-1.34) 1.05 (0.86-1.29) 3142/21 391 1.16 (0.95-1.40) 1.18 (0.97-1.43) 1450/48 776 1.08 (0.89-1.30) 1.10 (0.91-1.33) 7532/49 629 1.10 (0.95-1.28) 1.13 (0.97-1.31) .96 .57 .29 .35 .89 .57 P for trend Cardiovascular disease g Yes No P for interaction Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; NA, data not applicable; TSH, thyroid-stimulating hormone. a Data were available from 7 studies. Forty-six participants from the Whickham survey and 3 participants from the Busselton Health Study were not included in the analysis of CHD events because follow-up data were only available for death. b Nine participants were excluded from this analysis because of missing cause of death. The Brazilian Thyroid Study was not included in this analysis because of unreliable estimates due to the low number of CHD deaths (n=10). c Adjusted for sex, age, systolic blood pressure, current and former smoking, total cholesterol, and prevalent diabetes at baseline. The Birmingham Study was not included in this analysis because of lack of data on cardiovascular risk factors. d These HRs were not adjusted for sex. e These HRs were adjusted for sex and age as a continuous variable to avoid residual confounding within age strata. f Data were not available for the Birmingham study (n=1098). g Data were not available for the Birmingham study (n=1098). Thirty-seven participants with missing information on baseline cardiovascular disease from other studies were excluded from this analysis. For analysis of CHD events, 286 participants without preexisting cardiovascular disease from the Leiden 85-plus Study were further excluded because of no CHD event. ©2010 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. (Reprinted) JAMA, September 22/29, 2010—Vol 304, No. 12 Downloaded from jama.ama-assn.org by guest on 14 December 2010 1371 SUBCLINICAL HYPOTHYROIDISM AND RISK OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE, MORTALITY ism.38,39 Increased systemic vascular resistance, arterial stiffness, altered endothelial function, increased atherosclerosis, and altered coagulability have been reported to be associated with subclinical hypothyroidism and may accelerate development of CHD.4,39,40 The fact that adjustment for traditional cardiovascu- lar risk factors did not alter risks could favor this hypothesis. Other potential mechanisms include elevated cholesterol level,4,39 although adjustment for Table 3. Sensitivity Analysis of the Effect of Subclinical Hypothyroidism on the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Events and CHD Mortality a CHD Events by Thyroid-Stimulating Hormone Level, mIU/L b CHD Mortality by Thyroid-Stimulating Hormone Level, mIU/L Subclinical Hypothyroidism Subclinical Hypothyroidism No. of No. of 4.5-19.9 10-19.9 4.5-19.9 10-19.9 Events/ Events/ Participants Participants No. of No. of No. of No. of With With Events/ HR Events/ HR HR Events/ HR Euthyroidism, Euthyroidism, Events/ Participants (95% CI) Participants (95% CI) 0.5-4.49 0.5-4.49 Participants (95% CI) Participants (95% CI) Random-effects model 4040/23 957 430/2020 1.18 70/235 1.89 1958/50 953 210/3348 1.14 28/333 1.58 (0.99-1.42) (1.28-2.80) (0.99-1.32) (1.10-2.27) Fixed-effects model 4040/23 957 430/2020 1.10 70/235 1.81 1958/50 953 210/3348 1.14 28/333 1.58 (0.99-1.22) (1.43-2.30) (0.99-1.32) (1.10-2.27) Excluding those with subclinical hypothyroidism With thyroid medication use c At baseline 3972/23 682 412/1937 1.16 60/204 1.77 1924/50 653 204/3253 1.14 24/300 1.46 (0.97-1.38) (1.13-2.76) (0.99-1.32) (0.99-2.17) At baseline 2354/11 635 246/998 1.17 29/73 2.17 1114/14 829 130/1466 1.25 15/90 1.85 and (0.91-1.50) (1.19-3.93) (1.04-1.51) (1.13-3.05) during follow-up With missing free 4040/23 957 423/1995 1.19 70/232 1.85 1958/50 953 204/3303 1.15 28/330 1.55 thyroxine (T4) d (0.99-1.42) (1.22-2.80) (0.99-1.33) (1.07-2.25) Excluding soft CHD outcomes e 3393/23 957 334/2020 Studies with formal adjudication procedures6-8,27, f 1672/7932 269/1090 1.23 (1.04-1.46) 1.08 (0.85-1.37) Outcomes 53/235 1.81 (1.10-2.98) 41/113 2.05 (1.14-3.68) NA NA 654/7929 111/1089 1.13 (0.83-1.55) 16/112 1.77 (1.08-2.89) Adjustments g Cardiovascular risk factors Plus lipid-lowering 2465/12 060 and antihypertensive medications Plus BMI 4040/23 957 Study of cardiac patients8 3892/21 310 327/1300 1.23 (0.97-1.57) 55/155 1.90 (1.09-3.34) 1396/35 879 164/2116 1.14 (0.96-1.35) 24/236 1.57 (1.04-2.37) 430/2020 1.16 (0.98-1.37) 70/235 1.86 (1.22-2.85) 1845/49 947 199/3256 1.13 (0.97-1.32) 28/316 1.45 (0.99-2.13) 410/1792 1.13 (0.95-1.34) NA i 1866/48 306 196/3120 26/310 1931/48 782 206/2928 1583/27 177 186/2534 1.10 (0.95-1.28) 1.15 (1.00-1.34) 1.15 (0.99-1.34) 1.53 (1.05-2.23) h 1.57 (1.09-2.26) 1.61 (1.12-2.33) Atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki, Japan34 HUNT Study33, j Rotterdam Study,5, k NA i 4050/24 807 434/2127 Studies Excluded 64/212 1.66 (1.19-2.31) h NA i NA i Additional Study Considered 1.20 NA l (1.00-1.44) NA l 28/318 28/268 NA l Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared); CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; NA, data not applicable. a The HRs were adjusted for age and sex using a random-effects model. b Data were available from 7 studies. c The numbers of participants with thyroid medication use appear in columns 7 and 8 of Table 1. The HUNT Study and the EPIC-Norfolk Study were not included in this analysis because of lack of this information during follow-up. d The numbers of participants appear in the eTable at http://www.jama.com. e Defined as hospitalization for angina or revascularization (coronary angioplasty or surgery) and participants with these outcomes were excluded from this analysis, which was possible for participants from 4 studies (eTable). In contrast, hard events were defined as nonfatal myocardial infarction or CHD death, as defined in the current Framingham risk score.20 f Defined as having clear criteria for the outcomes that were reviewed by experts for each potential case (eg, specific electrocardiogram or cardiac enzymes modifications for CHD). For this analysis, CHD adjudication based only on death certificates was not considered as a formal adjudication procedure. g The Birmingham Study was excluded from these analyses because of lack of data on cardiovascular risk factors. Data on lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medications were not available for the EPIC-Norfolk and Nagasaki Adult Health studies. h With further adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors after excluding the Pisa cohort, the HRs for TSH level of 10-19.9 mIU/L were 1.63 (95% CI, 1.13-2.34) for CHD events, 1.52 (95% CI, 1.04-2.23) for CHD mortality, and 1.05 (95% CI, 0.79-1.40) for total mortality (vs an HR of 1.06 [95% CI, 0.83-1.35] in age- and sex-adjusted analyses excluding the Pisa cohort). i No data on CHD events were available. j Had the lowest rate of subclinical hypothyroidism (3.3%, Table 1). k This study had 14 CHD events5,10 but did not accept invitation to share individual participant data. Summary estimates of this study, adjusted for age, BMI, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, blood pressure, and smoking were used in the random-effect models as a sensitivity analysis.24 l The TSH subgroups were not reported in the study. 1372 JAMA, September 22/29, 2010—Vol 304, No. 12 (Reprinted) ©2010 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. Downloaded from jama.ama-assn.org by guest on 14 December 2010 SUBCLINICAL HYPOTHYROIDISM AND RISK OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE, MORTALITY cholesterol level did not remove the associations in our data. Adults with higher TSH concentrations also are more likely to develop overt hypothyroidism,41 and it is possible that this progression explains the association with subclinical hypothyroidism. Alternative explanations for the observed results are bias in the selection of included studies, bias and quality problems in the original studies, publication bias, and unmeasured confounders.42 Sensitivity analyses pooling higher-quality studies yielded similar results. Whereas one randomized controlled trial has shown benefits with thyroxine treatment of subclinical hypothyroidism on intima-media thickness40 and another has shown benefits with thyroxine treatment of subclinical hypothyroidism on brachial artery endothelial function,43 the potential causal relationship can only be proven by randomized controlled trials of thyroxine replacement and clinical outcomes.36 Among the strengths of our study, an individual participant data analysis is the preferred way to perform time-to-event analyses to avoid biases associated with the use of aggregate data in metaregression for subgroup analysis and to allow standardization of definitions of predictors, outcomes, and adjustment for potential confounders.14,22 We included all available international and published data on these associations. Among the limitations of our study, the individual participant data analysis included predominantly white populations, except for 2 studies conducted in Japan34 and Brazil.35 Results for subgroups at risk of CHD mortality generally had wider 95% CIs than those for CHD events, reflecting less statistical power. However, post hoc calculations showed 80% power to detect meaningful differences between overall subclinical hypothyroidism and euthyroidism groups for each outcome. Specifically, our study had adequate power to detect an HR of 1.18 or higher for CHD events, an HR of 1.30 or higher for CHD mortality, and an HR of 1.13 or higher for total mortality. Even with this very large amount of individual participant data, our power for subgroup analyses was limited among those with TSH levels of 10 mIU/L or greater or adults younger than 50 years because of the limited number of CHD events and deaths. Thyroid function testing was performed only at baseline, and we have no data on how many participants progressed from euthyroidism to subclinical hypothyroidism, from subclinical to overt hypothyroidism, or who normalized their TSH level over time, which is a limitation of all published large cohorts.6,7,33 In addition, free triiodothyronine (T3) was not available in most cohorts, and thus could not be included in thyroid status classification. Commencement of thyroid medication during follow-up by up to 12.6% of participants might have attenuated any true effects of subclinical hypothyroidism, as illustrated by the sensitivity analysis excluding such participants. In summary, combining all available data from large prospective cohorts among 55 287 individual participants suggests that subclinical hypothyroidism is associated with an increased risk of CHD in those with higher TSH levels. The risk of both CHD mortality and CHD events, but not of total mortality, increases with higher concentrations of TSH and is significantly elevated in adults with TSH levels of 10 mIU/L or greater. Conversely, minimal TSH elevations are not associated with an increased risk of CHD events and CHD mortality. Our finding of no increased risk of CHD among the high proportions of adults with minimal TSH elevations is also important because many patients with minimal TSH elevations are currently treated in clinical practice.44 Our results might help refine a TSH threshold at which larger clinical benefits of thyroxine replacement would be expected.4,45 Our study cannot address whether these risks are attenuated or abolished by thyroxine replacement. Given the high prevalence of subclinical hypothyroidism, 2 , 1 9 this question needs to be addressed in an appropriately powered randomized controlled trial. Author Affiliations: Department of Ambulatory Care and Community Medicine, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland (Drs Rodondi, Collet, and Cornuz); Departments of Public Health and Primary Care (Ms den Elzen and Dr Gussekloo) and Gerontology and Geri- ©2010 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. atrics (Dr Westendorp), Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands; Departments of Medicine, Epidemiology, and Biostatistics (Drs Bauer and Vittinghoff ) and Medicine (Dr Bauer), University of California, San Francisco; Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Metabolism, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia (Dr Cappola); Department of Endocrinology, Gateshead Health Foundation NHS Trust, Gateshead, England (Dr Razvi); Department of Endocrinology and Diabetes, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Nedlands, Western Australia (Dr Walsh); Schools of Medicine and Pharmacology (Dr Walsh) and Population Health (Dr Bremner), University of Western Australia, Crawley; Department of Public Health, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway (Dr Åsvold); National Council Research Institute of Clinical Physiology, Pisa, Italy (Dr Iervasi); Department of Clinical Studies, Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Nagasaki, Japan (Dr Imaizumi); Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, European Institute of Oncology, Milan, Italy (Mr Maisonneuve); Division of Endocrinology, Department of Medicine, Federal University of Sao Paulo, Brazil (Dr Sgarbi); Division of Endocrinology, Faculdade de Medicina de Marı́lia, Marı́lia, Brazil (Dr Sgarbi); Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England (Dr Khaw); Department of Endocrinology, Royal Free Hospital, London, England (Dr Vanderpump); Department of Epidemiology, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (Dr Newman); School of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, England (Dr Franklyn); and the Netherlands Consortium for Healthy Ageing, Leiden (Dr Westendorp). Author Contributions: Dr Rodondi had full access to all of the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis. Study concept and design: Rodondi, Bauer, Cornuz, Westendorp, Gussekloo. Acquisition of data: Rodondi, Bauer, Walsh, Åsvold, Iervasi, Imaizumi, Sgarbi, Khaw, Vanderpump, Newman, Franklyn, Westendorp, Gussekloo. Analysis and interpretation of data: Rodondi, den Elzen, Bauer, Cappola, Razvi, Åsvold, Iervasi, Imaizumi, Collet, Bremner, Maisonneuve, Sgarbi, Cornuz, Franklyn, Westendorp, Vittinghoff, Gussekloo. Drafting of the manuscript: Rodondi. Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: den Elzen, Bauer, Cappola, Razvi, Walsh, Åsvold, Iervasi, Imaizumi, Collet, Bremner, Maisonneuve, Sgarbi, Khaw, Vanderpump, Newman, Cornuz, Franklyn, Westendorp, Vittinghoff, Gussekloo. Statisticalanalysis:Rodondi,denElzen,Bauer,Vittinghoff. Obtained funding: Walsh, Iervasi, Sgarbi, Khaw, Vanderpump, Newman, Franklyn, Westendorp, Gussekloo. Administrative, technical, or material support: Rodondi, Collet, Khaw, Newman, Gussekloo. Study supervision: Rodondi, Westendorp, Gussekloo. Financial Disclosures: None reported. Funding/Support: The Cardiovascular Health Study and the research reported in this article were supported by contract numbers N01-HC-80007, N01-HC-85079 through N01-HC-85086, N01-HC-35129, N01 HC15103, N01 HC-55222, N01-HC-75150, N01-HC45133, grant number U01 HL080295 from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, with additional funding from the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke. Additional support was provided through grants R01 AG-15928, R01 AG-20098, AG027058, and AG-032317 from the National Institute on Aging, grant R01 HL-075366 from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, and grant P30-AG024827 from the University of Pittsburgh Claude. D. Pepper Older Americans Independence Center. A full list of principal investigators and institutions of the Car- (Reprinted) JAMA, September 22/29, 2010—Vol 304, No. 12 Downloaded from jama.ama-assn.org by guest on 14 December 2010 1373 SUBCLINICAL HYPOTHYROIDISM AND RISK OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE, MORTALITY diovascular Health Study can be found at http://www .chs-nhlbi.org/pi.htm. The thyroid measurements in the Cardiovascular Health Study were supported by an American Heart Association Grant-in-Aid (to Linda Fried). The Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study is supported by National Institute on Aging contract numbers N01-AG-6-2101, N01-AG-6-2103, and N01AG-6-2106, and in part by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health. The National Institute on Aging funded the Health Aging, and Body Composition study. The Leiden 85-plus Study was partly funded by the Dutch Ministry of Health, Welfare, and Sports. The Whickham Survey was supported by the UK Department of Health. The HUNT Study was a collaborative effort of the Faculty of Medicine, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, and the Nord-Trøndelag County Council. The thyroid testing in the HUNT Study was financially supported by Wallac Oy (Turku, Finland). The Nagasaki Adult Health Study was supported by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, a private, nonprofit foundation funded by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare and the US Department of Energy, the latter in part through the National Academy of Sciences. This publication was supported by research protocol A-10-08 from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation. The EPIC-Norfolk study was supported by research grants from the UK Medical Research Council and the UK Cancer Research. The Brazilian Thyroid Study was supported by an unrestricted grant from the Sao Paulo State Research Foundation (Fundacão de Amparo a⬘ Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo grant 6/59737-9 to Rui Maciel). Dr Newman is supported by grant AG-023629 from the the National Institute on Aging. Dr Westendorp is supported by grant NGI/NWO 911-03-016 from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research. Role of the Sponsor: The majority of the sponsors had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; or preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript. The National Institute on Aging funded the Health, Aging, and Body Composition study and reviewed the manuscript and approved its publication. The Radiation Effects Research Foundation funded the Nagasaki Adult Health Study and reviewed the manuscript and approved its publication. Statistical Evaluation: Dr Vittinghoff, professor of biostatistics, in the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, reviewed the statistical analyses of the article. Participating Studies of the Thyroid Studies Collaboration: United States: Cardiovascular Health Study; Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study. The Netherlands: the Leiden 85-plus Study. Australia: Busselton Health Study. United Kingdom: Whickham Survey; Birmingham Study; EPIC-Norfolk Study. Italy: Pisa Cohort. Japan: Nagasaki Adult Health Study. Brazil: Brazilian Thyroid Study. Norway: Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT Study). Online-Only Material: eMethods, eTable, and eFigure are available at http://www.jama.com. Additional Contributions: We thank Sabrina Molinaro (Clinical Physiology Institute, Pisa, Italy) for technical help about data from the Pisa Cohort and from Rui Maciel (Escola Paulista de Medicina, Federal University of Sao Paulo, Brazil) for technical help about data from the Brazilian Thyroid Study. The persons listed in this section did not receive financial compensation. REFERENCES 1. Helfand M; US Preventive Services Task Force. Screening for subclinical thyroid dysfunction in nonpregnant adults. Ann Intern Med. 2004;140(2): 128-141. 2. Surks MI, Ortiz E, Daniels GH, et al. Subclinical thyroid disease. JAMA. 2004;291(2):228-238. 3. Gharib H, Tuttle RM, Baskin HJ, et al. Subclinical thyroid dysfunction. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2005; 90(1):581-585. 4. Biondi B, Cooper DS. The clinical significance of subclinical thyroid dysfunction. Endocr Rev. 2008; 29(1):76-131. 5. Hak AE, Pols HA, Visser TJ, et al. 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Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the heart. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2007;92(9): 3404-3405. ©2010 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. Downloaded from jama.ama-assn.org by guest on 14 December 2010 ANEXO 5 Trabalho No. 05 Associations between subclinical hypothyroidism and traditional and nontraditional cardiovascular risk factors José A. Sgarbi, Luiza K. Matsumura, Teresa S. Kasamatsu, Heloisa H. Villar, Sandra R. Ferreira, Rui M. B. Maciel. Manuscristo em preparo para publicação 70 ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN SUBCLINICAL HYPOTHYROIDISM AND TRADITIONAL AND NONTRADITIONAL CARDIOVASCULAR RISK FACTORS José A. Sgarbi, MD; Luiza K. Matsumura, MD, PhD; Teresa S. Kasamatsu, MS; Villar H, MD, PhD; Sandra R. Ferreira, MD, PhD; Rui M. B. Maciel , MD, PhD Author affiliations 1. Division of Endocrinology, Department of Medicine, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil (Drs. Sgarbi, Matsumura, Ferreira and Maciel, and Ms. Kasamatsu) 2. Division of Endocrinology, Department of Medicine, Marília School of Medicine, Marília, Brazil (Dr Sgarbi, Dr. Villar) 3. Department of Nutrition, School of Public Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil (Dr Ferreira) Corresponding author Rui M. B. Maciel, MD, PhD Laboratory of Molecular Endocrinology, Division of Endocrinology, Department of Medicine, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Federal University of São Paulo Rua Pedro de Toledo 781, 12o. andar, 04029-032, São Paulo, SP, Brazil Phone: (+55) 11-5084-5231 e-mail: [email protected] Grant The Japanese-Brazilian Thyroid Study was supported by an unrestricted grant from FAPESP – Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (06/59737-9) Disclosure of Potential Conflict of Interest The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest that could be perceived as prejudicing the impartiality of the research reported. 71 Key words: subclinical hypothyroidism, cardiovascular risk factors, metabolic syndrome 72 Abstract Context: Subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) has been associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality, but the causes of CHD remain unknown. Possible causes include cardiovascular (CV) risk factors related to metabolic syndrome (MS), but the available data are conflicting. Objective: To investigate the hypothesis that SCH is associated with traditional and nontraditional CV risk factors and that SCH is associated with a cluster of these risk factors in a population with a high prevalence of MS. Design: Cross-sectional study Setting: Population-based study Participants: A Japanese-Brazilian population aged more than 30 yr, free of thyroid disease and thyroid medication, was studied. Individuals with SCH (n = 99) were compared with those with euthyroidism (n = 913). Measurements: Clinical signs of MS, both traditional (smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol) and nontraditional (waist circumference, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, insulin resistance, apolipoprotein B, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, homocysteine, and uric acid), and a cluster of these factors. Results: SCH was associated with higher concentrations of both triglycerides and homocysteine in women, but the differences in these markers were not 73 significant. SCH was not associated with MS, other traditional or nontraditional risk factors, or with a cluster of these factors in this population. Conclusions: These findings suggest that the increased risk of CHD events and CHD mortality associated with SCH might be associated with mechanisms other than insulin resistance and low-grade inflammation. 74 Introduction Subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) has been defined as a mild thyroid failure characterized by normal serum levels of thyroid hormones in the face of mildly elevated serum thyroid-stimulating hormone TSH concentrations (1). Epidemiological studies show a high prevalence of undiagnosed SCH in the general population, particularly in women at older ages, with rates ranging from 10% to 15% (2-4). Despite this high prevalence and the more frequent diagnosis of this condition in daily clinical practice, there is no consensus regarding screening and indications for the treatment of SCH (5-7). The clinical significance of SCH remains controversial, specifically whether it is independently associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality. In the last decade, large prospective observational studies (8-11) and meta-analyses (12-14) have reported conflicting results. Most recently, an individual participant data analysis (15) from 11 prospective cohort studies found that SCH was significantly associated with an increased risk of CHD events and CHD mortality, but the reasons for this association remain unknown (1). Possible reasons include accelerated atherosclerosis (8), disturbance in atherogenic lipid metabolism (16-18), endothelium dysfunction (19), and altered coagulation parameters (20). More recently, studies have speculated a possible relationship between SCH and metabolic syndrome (MS) (21-24) or components of MS (25,26), but the data are inconsistent. Considering that MS represents a combination of multiple risk determinants, including traditional and nontraditional cardiovascular (CV) risk factors (27,28), that the metabolic abnormalities and increased CV described in MS are similar to those seen in SCH (21,23), and that the few 75 available data on this matter are conflicting, it is of interest to investigate potential relationships between SCH and MS or its components in a population with a high prevalence of MS. We therefore investigated the possible associations between SCH and MS, traditional and nontraditional CV risk factors, and a cluster of these factors in a population of Japanese ancestry noted for its high prevalence of MS (29,30). Methods Study population The participants of this study were part of the Japanese-Brazilian Diabetes Study designed to investigate the prevalence of diabetes and associated diseases in an urban community of Japanese ancestry living in Bauru, a developed city of São Paulo State in Brazil. Details on the selection and recruitment of the sample population have been previously published (29). We also previously reported the prevalence of thyroid dysfunction and the association of subclinical thyroid disorders with mortality in this population (11). Among the 1330 participants ≥ 30 years of age who agreed to participate, we excluded those who self-reported thyroid disease or were taking thyroid medications; those using amiodarone, lithium, or corticosteroids; and those without a complete cardiovascular evaluation. Participants with other thyroid dysfunctions, except SCH, and those with atypical thyroid function tests not matching any category defined for the present study were also excluded from our study. In total, 1012 individuals were analyzed. There were no differences in the demographic or clinical characteristics between included and excluded 76 (n=318) individuals. All participants gave written informed consent, and the study design was approved by the Ethics Committee of Escola Paulista de Medicina, Federal University of São Paulo. Study procedures Sociodemographic, cultural, lifestyle, and health data were obtained by standardized questionnaires and trained interviewers. A specific thyroid questionnaire that included family and personal histories of thyroid disease was applied by experts in thyroid diseases. Body weight and height were measured while individuals were wearing light clothing without shoes. Waist circumference was measured at the level of the umbilicus while standing and during slight expiration. Blood pressure was taken three times by an automatic device (Omron model HEM-712C, Omron Health Care, USA). The mean of the last two measurements was used to express systolic and diastolic blood pressure values. A standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) was obtained in the resting state by the standard procedure and analyzed by two cardiologists. Fasting blood samples were taken, and a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test was performed. Samples were processed for immediate analysis in the local laboratory or stored at −80 C. Plasma glucose was measured by the glucose oxidase method, while the total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), and triglycerides were enzymatically evaluated by an automatic analyzer. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) levels were calculated according the Friedewald equation (31). Apolipoprotein B (apo B) levels were determined by an immunoturbidimetric assay (normal range, 66– 77 133 mg/dL for men and 60–117 mg/dL for women). C-reactive protein (CRP; normal range, 0.05–0.11 mg/dL) and interleukin-6 (IL-6; normal range, up to 9.7 pg/mL) levels were determined by a chemiluminescent immunometric assay. Serum homocysteine levels were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography, as described by Pfeiffer et al. (normal range, 5–15 µmol/L) (32). Albumin and creatinine levels were quantified from an early-morning urine specimen, and the albumin/creatinine ratio was calculated using the DCA2000® microalbumin/creatinine assay system (Bayer Diagnostica, Leverkusen, Germany), which detects albumin by immunoturbidimetric direct antibodyantigen aggregation and measures creatinine colorimetrically using the Benedict-Behre reaction. Insulin concentration was determined by a monoclonal antibody-based immunofluorimetric assay (AutoDelphia, Perkin-Elmer Life Sciences Inc., Norton, OH, USA). Insulin resistance was calculated by the homeostasis model assessment [HOMA-IR = fasting insulin (µU/mL)/22.5 x fasting glycemia (mmoL/L)]. TSH levels were measured in duplicate by a sensitive immunofluorimetric assay (AutoDELFIA, Wallac, Oy Turku, Finland) with a reference range of 0.45 to 4.5 mU/L and a functional sensitivity of 0.05 mU/L. Serum free thyroxine (FT4) was measured using a competitive immunoassay (AutoDELFIA, Oy, Turku, Finland), wherein the normal reference range was 0.7–1.5 ng/dL. 78 Definitions Euthyroidism was defined as a serum TSH level between 0.45 mU/L and 4.5 mU/L, with an FT4 level within the normal reference ranges. SCH was defined as a serum TSH level between 4.5 mU/L and 20 mU/L, with a normal FT4 concentration. Hypertension was defined as a blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mmHg or the use of antihypertensive medication; diabetes was defined according to the American Diabetes Association criteria; and dyslipidemia was defined by the presence of any lipid abnormality (total cholesterol levels ≥ 200 mg/dL, triglycerides ≥ 150 mg/dL, LDL-c > 130 mg/dL, or HDL-c < 40 mg/dL). MS was defined according to the modified National Cholesterol Education Program criteria (33) adapted for Asians (30), in which waist circumference values of 102 cm for men and 88 cm for women were replaced by 90 or 80 cm, respectively. The traditional CV risk factors considered for analysis in this study were smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and LDL-c, and the nontraditional CV risk factors were waist circumference, triglycerides, apo B, HDL-c, CRP, IL-6, homocysteine, uric acid, and HOMA-IR. The diagnosis of cardiovascular disease at baseline was defined by a medical history of congestive heart failure, angina pectoris, myocardial infarction [confirmed by a physician and by major ECG abnormalities from old infarctions (Q waves)], previous angioplasty, previous heart revascularization procedure, or coronary insufficiency previously diagnosed by catheterization, stroke, or intermittent claudication. 79 Statistical analysis All statistical analyses were performed using SAS statistical software version 9.1 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC). The assumed level of significance was p < 0.05 (two-tailed). Prevalence rates were calculated by point and confidence interval (CI). The data were described using absolute (n) or relative (%) frequencies, means with standard deviations (SD), and 95% confident intervals (CI). Differences in the means of the characteristics between the groups were assessed by Student’s t-test for parameters with a normal distribution and by the Mann-Whitney U test for parameters without a normal distribution. Frequencies were compared by the chi-squared test or Fisher’s exact test when one of the absolute frequencies was below 5. Variables without a normal distribution were subjected to logarithmic transformations before statistical analysis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis, to obtain an odds ratio (OR) and a 95% CI, was used to evaluate the association between SCH and traditional and nontraditional CV risk factors, with and without adjustment for age, smoking and body mass index (BMI). Spearman correlation analyses were used to determine the correlation between the levels of serum TSH and the studied variables. Based on expert reviews (1,5,6), a subset analysis was further performed in a subgroup of individuals with SCH who had more severely increased serum TSH levels (> 10 to 19.9 mU/L). Results The characteristics of the study population are shown in Table 1. Participants included 913 individuals exhibiting euthyroidism (92.2%) and 99 (9.8%) SCH; the mean age was similar in the two groups. Compared with 80 euthyroid subjects, individuals with SCH were more frequently women (63.6%, p = 0.02). As expected, the TSH levels of the SCH group were significantly elevated (p < 0.0001) in both men and women, while the FT4 levels were significantly lower (p < 0.001) in women, but not in men. The overall proportions of smokers and patients with MS, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and cardiovascular disease were not significantly different between the groups. In addition, there were no statistically significant differences concerning BMI, waist circumference, systolic or diastolic blood pressure, fasting serum insulin, HOMA-IR, total cholesterol, LDL-c, HDL-c, apo B, CRP, IL-6, or uric acid levels. On the other hand, triglyceride (p = 0.009) and homocysteine (p = 0.04) levels were both significantly higher in women with SCH, but not in men. Women with SCH were also more likely to use statins than those with euthyroidism [OR, 5.8 (95% CI, 1.7–20.2)]. Because statin use could be masking a potential association between serum levels of lipids and SCH in women, the analysis was repeated excluding this condition, but the results did not change. Table 2 demonstrates the traditional and nontraditional CV risk factors in SCH individuals compared with the controls. A multivariate analysis showed no association between SCH and the studied CV markers for either women or men. Despite the significantly higher levels of triglycerides and homocysteine found in women with SCH (Table 1), when hypertriglyceridemia (>150 mg/dL) and hyperhomocysteinemia (>15 µmol/L) were defined, there were no statistically significant differences in the proportions of the affected individuals between the two groups with respect to gender (Table 2), and the ORs were not significant. 81 Because MS represents a combination of multiple risk markers, we examined the association between SCH and a cluster of both traditional and nontraditional CV risks assessed in this study. The analysis showed no significant association between SCH and a cluster of up to five risk factors after adjustment for age, sex, smoking, and BMI (Table 3). Because the progression of SCH to overt disease (1), adverse effects from SCH (1), and mortality from SCH (15) are more likely associated with serum TSH levels > 10 mU/L, we performed an analysis on the subset of SCH individuals (n=13) with more severely increased serum TSH levels (10 to 19.9 mU/L). However, comparing this group with the euthyroid controls, we found no statistically significant difference in the mean serum levels or in the proportion of affected individuals related to the studied variables. Similarly, no significant ORs for the risk of either traditional or nontraditional CV risk factors, or of a cluster of these factors, were found between the two groups. Finally, we found a significant positive correlation between TSH and triglyceride levels (Spearman R = 0.0646, p = 0.04), and a significant negative correlation between TSH and waist circumference (Spearman R = −0.0734, p = 0.02). Discussion In this study, conducted on a population of Japanese-Brazilians characterized by the marked prevalence of MS (30), we found no association between SCH and either traditional CV risk factors, such as smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and increased LDL-c, or nontraditional CV risk factors, such as waist circumference, HOMA-IR, low HDL-c, high CRP, high apo B, high IL-6, 82 and hyperuricemia, or with a cluster of these metabolic factors. The only positive findings were the higher concentrations of both triglycerides and homocysteine in women (but not in men) with SCH compared with those showing euthyroidism. However, the percentage of SCH women with both hypertriglyceridemia and hyperhomocysteinemia did not differ from the control group, and the ORs for these markers in SCH were not significant. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first population-based study that has explored the potential associations of SCH with the many cardiovascular risk factors that cluster within MS in a population with a high prevalence of metabolic disorders. A previous study demonstrated the impact of cardiovascular causes of death in this population (34). Most recently, our group also reported that SCH was significantly associated with mortality in this same population in a 7.5-yr cohort study (11). Mortality was also significantly associated with some components of MS in this cohort, but the causal role of SCH in mortality remained significant, even after adjustments for these prognostic factors. It is has been recognized that both hypothyroidism and MS are associated with similar metabolic changes, such as weight gain, mild hypertension, dyslipidemia, and an increased risk for cardiovascular disease (23,24). According to some recent studies, a possible link between these conditions could be insulin resistance (21). In 117 women with type 2 diabetes, there were strong positive associations between TSH levels and lipid parameters with adverse cardiac risks at low insulin sensitivity (36). In a Dutch population-based study (25), low-normal FT4 levels were significantly associated with higher insulin resistance and with MS traits, and thyroid 83 hormone levels (FT4 and FT3 (free triiodothyronine)) were negatively correlated with both total cholesterol and apo B. In contrast, we found no correlation between either TSH or FT4 with fasting insulin, insulin resistance, or with atherogenic lipoproteins, and no association was found between SCH and these markers. The conflicting results might partially reflect differences in the population characteristics, selection criteria, and different adjustments. In the Dutch study (25), subjects who were not euthyroid were excluded, while in the current study, individuals taking oral blood glucose-lowering medication were not excluded, which might have limited our ability to detect potential associations between SCH and insulin resistance. In agreement with our findings, hypothyroidism had no impact on insulin sensitivity assessed with HOMA-IR in 22 totally thyroidectomized patients (37), and no correlation was found between insulin levels and either TSH or FT3 concentrations (38). In addition, TSH was not significantly correlated with insulin sensitivity in a study using the gold standard hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp technique, and the associations found between TSH with both LDL-c and HDL-c were independent of insulin sensitivity (39). Furthermore, in a recent study of a population from the Berlin/Potsdam region, participants in the upper-normal TSH range just failed to be significantly more insulin resistant (23). Interestingly, in the Dutch study (25), low-normal FT4 was also associated with higher triglycerides, lower HDL-c, and abdominal obesity. However, these associations were independent of insulin resistance, indicating that other mechanisms underlie the relation of FT 4 to these components of MS. In summary, data about this issue are conflicting. 84 The present study is also in agreement with a Danish cohort in terms of the association between SCH with higher concentrations of triglycerides (40). In contrast with that study, we found no association between SCH and raised CRP levels, a marker of inflammation and a strong predictor of cardiovascular risk (28). Data from the NHANES survey (41) showed similar results, suggesting that CRP does not appear to contribute to the increased risk for CHD in SCH (1). IL-6, another marker of the proinflammatory state, was also not significantly associated to SCH in this population (28). This result contrasts with a study in which patients with SCH and Hashimoto thyroiditis showed higher CRP and IL-6 values. However, in that study, the inflammation might have been related to autoimmune processes and not to thyroid status (42). Hyperhomocysteinemia has also been considered as an independent biomarker for progressive atherosclerosis (28), and thyroid hormone seems to influence its plasma concentration (21). In this study, serum homocysteine levels were significantly increased in women with SCH compared with controls, but this finding is likely not related to the thyroid status because we found no correlation between either TSH or FT4 with homocysteine, and the risk for this marker was not significantly associated with SCH. Possible confounders could be serum concentrations of folate, vitamin B12, or creatinine, which may be linked to the pathogenesis of hyperhomocysteinemia in hypothyroid patients (1,21). In recent reviews (1,21), no role for homocysteine as a marker of CHD in SCH was observed. No consistent association of SCH with lipid profiles (except for hypertriglyceridemia in women) was found in this study. These findings agree with a Japanese study (26) and previous large occidental population-based 85 studies (2), but differ from others (3,4,10). Recently, randomized and doubleblind studies of L-thyroxine and placebo found that SCH patients treated with Lthyroxine showed improved total cholesterol and LDL-c levels (17,43), but a systematic review found only marginal evidence indicating an association between thyroid hormone replacement and improvements in lipid profiles in patients with SCH (44). Thus, there are no conclusive data addressing the effects of SCH on lipid profiles. Uric acid seems to cluster with MS and may be an independent CV risk factor (45), but uric acid levels and the proportion of individuals with hyperuricemia were both similar between the groups in this study. This is in broad agreement with a recent population-based study (26), suggesting that uric acid does not appear to be associated as a marker of CV risk in SCH. Finally, the present study does not confirm an association of SCH with a cluster of metabolic risk factors, as found in a previous Japanese study (26). Despite some similarities between that study and the current one regarding ethnicity and the prevalence rates of SCH, there are marked differences in terms of age and lifestyle. In addition, that cohort was highly selective because it included only survivors from the atomic bomb. Our study has limitations. It is a cross-sectional study, implying that its ability to infer causality is limited. 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Treatment of subclinical hypothyroidism reduces atherogenic lipid levels in a placebo-controlled double-blind clinical trial. Horm Metab Res. 2008; 40: 50-5. 44. Villar HCCE, Saconato H, Valente O, Atallah AN 2007 Thyroid hormone replacement for subclinical hypothyroidism (Cochrane Review). In: The Cochrane Library, Issue 3. 45. Baker JF, Krishnan E, Chen L, Schumacher HR 2005 Serum uric acid and cardiovascular disease: recent developments, and where do they leave us? Am J Med 118:816-826. Acknowledgement We are grateful to the Japanese-Brazilian population and to The JapaneseBrazilian Diabetes Study Group, particularly to Drs Amélia Hirai and Sueli Gimeno. We thank Sirlei Siriane for the statistical assistance. We are also grateful to Gilberto Furuzawa and Patricia Hiroka for technical assistance and to Angela Faria for administrative assistance. 93 Table 1. Population baseline characteristics according to thyroid function status Men Controls Number Women SCH Controls SCH 444 36 469 63 Mean age (yr) 56.5 ±12.6 58.9±12.9 56.2±12.2 58.2±12.0 TSH (mU/l) 1.58±0.92 6.68±2.49║ 1.67±0.95 7.39±2.98║ FT4 (ng/dl) 1.09±0.18 1.08±0.19 1.04±0.16 0.97±0,2§ BMI (kg/m2)* 25.5±3.7 24.5±3.5 24.7±4.0 24.4±3.8 Waist circ.* (cm) 84.5±10.6 82.5±9.8 81.3±9.7 82.6±9.6 Systolic BP (mmHg) 135.4±23.0 135.0±21.6 130.3±25.4 132.6±27.1 Diastolic BP (mmHg) 81.6±13.3 82.2±14.4 77.3±12.9 75.9±13.7 Smokers, n (%) 86 (19.5) 4 (11.1) 34 (7.3) 6 (9.5) Diabetes, n (%) 182 (41.0) 9 (25.0) 146 (31.1) 26 (41.3) Hypertension, n (%) 184 (41.4) 18 (50.0) 158 (33.7) 25 (39.7) Dyslipidaemia, n (%) 392 (88.3) 35 (97.2) 369 (78.7) 51(81.0) 7 (1.6) - 6(1.3) 5 (7.9)‡ MS, n (%) 243 (54.7) 17 (47.2) 241(51.7) 31 (49.2) CVD, n (%) 70 (15.8) 6 (16.6) 50(10.6) 8 (12.7) FPG (mg/dL) 128.3±34.1 115.4±13.9 120.7±32.6 126.8±35.4 2h glucose (mg/dl) 171,7±85.7 136.3±45.4 161.6±67.3 176.0±102.4 Total Chol. (mg/dL) 214.1±41.7 210.4±53.1 215.9±40.5 216.1±44.4 LDL-c (mg/dL) 129.3±38.0 122.9±43.2 133.0±36.6 127.7±44.1 HDL-c (mg/dL) 49.6±11.7 47.9±14.4 51.9±10.0 52.2±11.7 269.2±227.1 257.0±215.5 196.6±136.8 249.4±189.6‡ Apo B,(mg/dL) 92.1±25.9 106.6±22.0 90.2±26.7 81.9±27.2 Homocysteine (µmol/L) 12.8±7.0 14.4±8.7 9.7±4.2 10.5±3.3† CRP (mg/dL) 0.23±0.47 0.19±0.35 0.34±1.02 0.18±0.21 IL-6 (pg/mL) 1.07±0.64 0.98±0.34 1.04±1.3 1.08±1.02 Uric acid* (mg/dL) 7.1±1.8 7.3±2.2 5.4±1.3 5.4±1.3 HOMA-IR* 3.0±3.1 2.7±3.0 2.5±1.9 2.8±2.4 Statin usage, n (%) Triglygerides (mg/dL) 94 Legend Table 1 Abbreviations: SCH, subclinical hypothyroidism; BMI, body mass index; Waist circ., waist circumference; Systolic BP, systolic blood pressure; Diastolic BP, diastolic blood pressure; MS, metabolic syndrome; CVD, cardiovascular disease; FPG, fasting plasmatic glucose; Total chol., total cholesterol; LDL-C, low- density lipoprotein-cholesterol; HDL-c, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; Apo-B, apolipoprotein B; CRP, C-reactive protein; IL-6, interleukin-6; Cr, creatinine; HOMA-IR, homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance. Data are presented as mean ± SD, unless noted otherwise. *, values were log transformed for statistical analysis † p < 0.05; ‡ p< 0.01; § p < 0.001; ║ p < 0.0001 Table 2. Risk for traditional and nontraditional cardiovascular risk factors in subclinical hypothyroidism individuals. Men Controls n = 444 SCH n = 36 Women OR (95% CI)* Controls n = 469 SCH n = 63 OR (95%CI) 95 Traditional CV risk factors Smokers, n (%) 86 (19.5) 4 (11.1) 0.5 (0.2-1.5) 34 (7.3) 6 (9.5) 1.3 (0.5-3.3) Diabetes, n (%) 182 (41.0) 9 (25) 0.5 (0.2-1.0) 146 (31.1) 26 (41.3) 1.6 (0.9-2.7) Hypertension, n (%) 184 (41.4) 18 (50) 1.3 (0.7-2.7) 158 (33.7) 25 (39.7) 1.3 (0.7-2.2) High LDL-c, n (%) 206 (46.4) 15 (41.7) 0.9 (0.4-1.7) 252 (53.7) 30 (47.6) 0.7 (0.4-1.2) Hypertriglyceridaemia, n (%) 324 (74) 30 (83.3) 1.9 (0.8-4.9) 270 (58.4) 42 (67.7) 1.4 (0.8-2.5) Low HDL-C, n (%) 72 (16.2) 13 (36.1) 0.7 (0.3-1.7) 42 (9.0) 5 (7.9) 1.1 (0.4-2.9) High apo B, n (%) 305 (68.7) 25 (69.4) 0.8 (0.4-1.8) 335 (71.4) 44 (69.8) 1.0 (0.5-1.8) High homocysteine, n (%) 74 (21.1) 8 (29.6) 1.5 (0.6-3.6) 26 (6.8) 3 (6.3) 0.9 (0.3-3.2) High CRP, n (%) 183 (49.3) 12 (40) 0.7 (0.3-1.6) 228 (57.3) 25 (50.0) 0.7 (0.4-1.2) High IL-6, n (%) - - - 1 (0.7) - - 209 (47.1) 17 (47.2) 1.1 (0.5-2.1) 121 (25.8) 18 (28.6) 1.1 (0.6-1.9) Nontraditional CV risk factors Waist circumference (cm) Hyperuricaemia, n (%) Legend Table 2 Abbreviations: SCH, subclinical hypothyroidism; OR, odds ratio; CI, confident interval ; LDL-C, low- density lipoprotein-cholesterol; HDL-c, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; apo-B, apolipoprotein B; CRP, C-reactive protein; IL-6, interleukin-6. High LDL-c, ≥ 130 mg/dL; low HDL-c, < 40 mg/dL; high Apo-B, > 133 mg/dL; hyperhomocysteinaemia, > 15 µmol/L; high CRP, > 0.11 mg/dL; high IL-6, > 9.7 pg/mL; hyperuricaemia, uric acid ≥ 7.0 mg/dL. *, odds ratio adjusted for age, smoking, and BMI Table 3. Risk for a cluster of cardiovascular risk factors in subclinical hypothyroidism Number of CVrisk factors Euthyroidism SCH OR* (95% CI) 96 (n = 913) (n= 99) 0 8 (0.9) 1 (1.0) 1.0 1 76 (8.3) 10 (10.1) 1.05 (0.12 – 9.32) 2 161 (17.6) 17 (17.2) 0.84 (0.1 – 7.17) 3 194 (21.2) 28 (28.3) 1.15 (0.14 – 9.58) 4 181 (19.8) 18 (18.2) 0.8 (0.09 – 6.73) 5 167 (18.3) 10 (10.1) 0.48 (0.05 – 4.22) Legend Table 3 Abbreviations: CVR, cardiovascular risk; SCH, subclinical hypothyroidism; OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval *, adjusted for age, sex, smoking, and BMI 97