15 de março de 2012
O conteúdo das matérias é de inteira responsabilidade dos meios de origem
A missão da ADIMB é a de promover o desenvolvimento técnico-científico
e a capacitação de recursos humanos para a Indústria Mineral Brasileira
INVESTIMENTOS NO BRASIL AINDA SÃO BAIXOS
Apesar do anunciado potencial geológico e das importantes descobertas nos últimos anos,
notadamente de ouro, o Brasil continua apresentando nível de investimento em exploração abaixo
de sua potencialidade. De acordo com o último relatório do MEG (Metals Economic Group), lançado
no PDAC 2012, na América Latina, região que liderou os investimentos em exploração de nãoferrosos no ano de 2011, o Brasil fica em quarto lugar, atrás do México, Chile e Peru. Dos 25% de
investimentos mundiais destinados à América Latina, o Brasil ficou com 3%, enquanto o México teve
6%, o Chile 5% e o Peru 4%. Somente Argentina e Colômbia ficaram atrás do Brasil. O Canadá e a
Austrália, que também possuem vastos territórios, contaram, respectivamente, com 18% e 13% do
total de investimentos. Coincidentemente ou não, estes são dois países onde as empresas de
mineração têm forte presença nas bolsas de valores. O Brasil, apesar de ter uma das maiores bolsas
de valores do mundo, quase não tem empresas de mineração listadas em pregão.
Fonte: Brasil Mineral
Data: 07/03/2012
ESTUDO MOSTRA SETORES QUE MAIS RECEBERÃO RECURSOS NOS PRÓXIMOS
ANOS EM MG
Levantamento inédito mostra quais são os setores econômicos do estado que
podem receber recursos de R$ 48 bilhões até 2013. Atualização do estudo será
feito a cada três meses.
A economia de Minas deve receber uma injeção de recursos de R$ 48 bilhões entre 2012 e
2013. Desse percentual, 60% dos investimentos serão alavancados por setores tradicionais como
mineração, siderurgia e metalurgia. Também têm investimentos previstos para os próximos dois anos
a indústria química (R$ 3 bilhões) e segmentos do setor de serviços, como hotelaria (R$ 1,6 bilhão). O
levantamento, inédito no país, foi feito pelo Sebrae-Minas e será atualizado a cada três meses.
Observando os setores da economia, de longe o maior aporte de capital vem da indústria, que
fica com uma fatia correspondente a 85% dos recursos previstos, seguido pelos serviços, agronegócio
e por último o comércio. Os municípios que estão na espécie de rota da fortuna, são sobretudo os
com atividade mineradora. Há algumas exceções, como Uberaba, forte no agronegócio na Região do
Triângulo Mineiro, tem investimentos previstos de R$ 1,9 bilhão e deve garantir a posição do
município entre os 10 primeiros que mais irão receber investimentos. Brumadinho, primeiro no
ranking, tem previsão de atrair quatro vezes mais recursos.
Para o coordenador do Conselho de Política Econômica da Federação das Indústrias de Minas
Gerais (Fiemg), Lincoln Fernandes, só a China pode afetar essa projeção de investimentos para o
estado em 2012. Ele pondera que nos últimos anos o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) da China vem
crescendo acima do anunciado pelo governo. "Uma queda no PIB chinês de um ponto percentual não
deve se suficiente para esfriar a demanda desses setores." Segundo Lincoln, a expectativa de
investimentos para o estado só muda se houver uma drástica queda no crescimento da China, em
cerca de 3%.
Os investimentos anunciados por grandes empresas, principalmente dos setores de
mineração, siderurgia e metalurgia, são de longo prazo. “Essas grandes empresas não vão matar
projetos devido a duas ou três crises. Com a China mantendo seu crescimento, o estado deve ser
favorecido pela sua vocação mais acentuada”, considera Fernandes.
O setor de mineração, segundo o levantamento do Sebrae, sozinho vai investir R$ 24,4 bilhões
no estado. A indústria química segue em segundo lugar com R$ 2,9 bilhões, siderurgia e metalurgia
com R$ 2,4 bilhões e R$ 2,1 bilhões respectivamente. O setor de fertilizantes tem planos para
consolidar investimentos em Minas na ordem de R$ 1,8 bilhão.
A previsão é de que a distribuição dos recursos seja desigual no estado. A Região Central, que
tem cidades com forte presença mineradora, como Brumadinho, Itabirito, Mariana e Conceição do
Mato Dentro vai abocanhar quase metade dos recursos: R$ 19,4 bilhões. A boa surpresa, segundo o
gerente de inteligência operacional do Sebrae, Brenner Lopes, ficou por conta do Norte de Minas,
que deve captar R$ 3,2 bilhões. "A região que tradicionalmente é vista como a que menos cresce, em
termos proporcionais, tem apresentado um dos maiores índices de atração de investimentos do
estado em setores não tradicionais."
O levantamento do Sebrae mostra que nos próximos dois anos a estrutura produtiva do ponto
de vista setorial pouco se altera no estado. “É uma vantagem comparativa”, considera o economista
do Ibmec-Minas, Ari Francisco Júnior. "Ser forte em alguns setores específicos não é necessariamente
ruim. A diversificação é positiva quando é natural e não criada de forma artificial." Na opinião do
especialista, as desigualdades regionais devem ser minimizadas pelo estado. "Para isso os estados
arrecadam e podem lançar mão de políticas como a transferência de renda. Os incentivos só valem se
não afetar a capacidade produtiva", completa.
Fonte: Estado de Minas
Data: 07/03/2012
CHINESES QUEREM COMPRAR MINA DE FERRO NO BRASIL
A China Steel pretende aumentar suas chances de investimentos na China, Japão, Coréia do
Sul, Brasil e África este ano, informou o presidente da empresa Sung Jyh-yuh, pois identificou
possibilidades de investimento na Austrália, Brasil e África e espera adquirir pelo menos uma mina de
ferro neste ano, o que a ajudaria a expandir sua capacidade em 9% em 2012 e em 15% no próximo. A
rápida deterioração da demanda global por aço no ano passado, provocada pela crise de dívida
soberana na zona do euro, levou a China Steel a fazer cortes de 10% a 20% na sua capacidade de
utilização por mês desde novembro do ano passado. Sung disse que a demanda global está agora
mais "constante" e mais "forte" do que o esperado, o que sinaliza que a recuperação será possível no
segundo semestre.
Fonte: Monitor Mercantil
Data: 06/03/2012
MINÉRIO DE FERRO: GRUPO CAMARGOS JÚNIOR EXPANDIRÁ PRODUÇÃO
O grupo mineiro Camargos Júnior, que atua nos segmentos de mineração, energia renovável,
agropecuária, reflorestamento e siderurgia, pretende expandir sua atuação na produção de minério
de ferro, começando com a unidade Morro do Ferro, localizada próximo às cidades de Oliveira e
Passa Tempo, em Minas Gerais e que, segundo a empresa, conta com reservas de 9,8 milhões
de toneladas de minério de ferro. Atualmente, nesta unidade, a companhia está produzindo a uma
escala de 300 mil toneladas/ano, que será aumentada para 1 milhão de toneladas/ano com a
introdução de um circuito a úmido para o processamento de finos. A produção atual é somente de
granulados. O investimento programado para a introdução do novo circuito, segundo o presidente da
empresa, Mário José Júnior de Camargos, é da ordem de US$ 10 milhões. Além de Morro do Ferro, a
companhia possui mais três projetos em minério de ferro: o primeiro é o Nova Aurora, localizado no
norte de Minas Gerais, nas proximidades das cidades de Salinas e Rio Pardo de Minas, com reservas
de 1,8 bilhão t e potencial de exploração de até 24 bilhões t. O outro é o Mina do Reino, no estado de
Pernambuco, próximo à cidade de São José do Belmonte, com potencial para 50 milhões t. E o
terceiro é o projeto da Santa Paulina Mineração, na serra do Rola Moça, no Quadrilátero Ferrífero de
Minas Gerais, nas proximidades da cidade de Ibirité, onde o potencial de exploração é de 230 milhões
t, com expectativa de início de produção em 2013, a uma escala de 900 mil toneladas/ano, que
poderia ser aumentada para 2,4 milhões t/ano a partir de 2016. Ainda em mineração, o grupo atua
na produção de agregados para construção civil através de duas empresas em Minas Gerais
(Mineração Sandstone e Mineração Vale do Rio Picão), que estão expandindo sua atuação para o
estado de São Paulo. O grupo está participando da convenção do PDAC, no Canadá, com estande
próprio, em busca de clientes para o minério de ferro.
Fonte: Brasil Mineral
Data: 07/03/2012
FOSFATO: MBAC AMPLIA RESERVAS NO PROJETO SANTANA
A MbAC Fertilizers anunciou que ampliou as reservas no depósito que possui em Santana, no
estado do Pará. Os últimos dados indicam uma reserva indicada de 66,1 milhões de toneladas com
teor de 10,5% de P2O5, mais 21,8 milhões t de reservas inferidas com teor de 7,9%, usando um cutoff de 3% de P2O5. Segundo Antenor Silva, vice-chairman e CEO da empresa, tais resultados superam
as expectativas e confirmam o potencial de Santana como um depósito de fosfato muito significativo,
já que as reservas são o dobro das existentes em Itafós, no Tocantins, onde a empresa está
implantando um empreendimento para produção de 500 mil t/ano de SSP. Ele disse também que
Santana poderá demandar investimentos de até US$ 385 milhões, devido à falta de infraestrutura.
Mas o empreendimento é altamente competitivo, devido a sua localização próxima ao mercado
consumidor, pois se encontra na fronteira entre os estados do Pará e Mato Grosso, um polo agrícola
e agropecuário. Atualmente a empresa está conduzindo um estudo de pré-viabilidade, que deverá
estar concluído até o final de março.
Fonte: Brasil Mineral
Data: 07/03/2012
ONE CERTAINTY FOR MINERS: TAXES
When Kinross Gold Corp. announced in December that it agreed to pay a 70% windfall profits
tax in Ecuador, industry onlookers responded with some variation of the same phrase: "Kinross did
what??"
There have been numerous examples through history of host countries forcing mining
companies to pay windfall taxes. But Kinross broke new ground by supporting the tax in its
exploitation contract. It appeared one of the biggest negotiating victories ever by a host government
with a mining company, and it set a dangerous precedent for the industry.
The deal was non-binding, and Kinross is now renegotiating it and desperately trying to get
better terms. But the fact that it agreed to such an arrangement in the first place speaks to a more
important truth: Taxation in the mining industry is rising across the globe and poses a serious threat
to companies of all sizes.
The list of countries that have proposed higher mining taxes in recent months is long. It
includes South Africa, Ghana, Zambia, Kyrgyzstan, China, Philippines, Indonesia, Guatemala, Peru
and numerous others. Tax hikes are coming in the form of royalties, corporate taxes, valueadded
taxes, profit sharing, windfall taxes and anything else a creative government can dream up. Chile
introduced voluntary mining tax hikes as it tried to recover from a devastating earthquake in 2010.
"If you just Google the words 'resource nationalism,' you'll find increasing numbers of hits on
that over the last 24 months," said Ed Heakes, a partner at taxation expert at Norton Rose Group.
In some respects, the trend toward rising mining taxes is natural and totally expected. Prices for most
commodities are still very strong and companies are generating big profits. Governments can always
be counted on to chase a bigger piece of the pie during the boom times, especially when they are
facing massive deficits and need to generate more tax revenue.
"Guess which sector is doing really well. Why wouldn't [miners] have a huge target on their
back?" said Tom Whelan, head of the national mining practice at Ernst & Young, which recently
declared resource nationalism as the biggest risk to the industry.
However, the rush to boost taxes today is unlike anything miners have experienced in recent
memory. And these tax hikes are coming at an unfavourable time, because while commodity prices
are strong, cost inflation is soaring through the roof and has completely changed the economics of
mining. If companies cannot count on a stable tax regime that will last for years, it is harder for
boards to justify investments that are now routinely in the billions of dollars, particularly as miners
move into jurisdictions with greater political instability.
"Not having a clear sense of what the tax rate is going to be can have a huge impact on the
overall economics," Mr. Whelan said.
The fact is that to date, miners have gotten off relatively easy. The typical total tax haul in the
mining industry is about 38% to 40%, experts said. In the oil and gas industry, windfall taxes are a fact
of life in many places, and companies are used to paying much higher tax rates.
The Kinross-Ecuador deal provided a disturbing indicator of where things could go for miners.
The total government haul for Ecuador was above 50%, with a 70% windfall tax kicking in at a gold
price as low as US$1,650 an ounce. If gold prices shot much higher, the government's take would be
astronomical.
"Kinross never should have press released [the tax terms]. They should have said to the
government that it's completely ludicrous," said George Topping, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus. "The
Ecuadorian fiscal regime is confiscatory. They might as well just nationalize."
Canada has bilateral investment treaties in force with 21 different countries, which should
provide Canadian miners with some confidence about investment stability overseas. But there are no
African countries in that group, and some of the ones that are in it (like Venezuela and Ecuador) have
not been kind to mining companies.
It is particularly notable that governments are raising taxes today, because they made a
similar concerted push for higher taxes late last decade. It backfired when recession struck in 2008
and 2009, as miners drastically reduced their spending and government mining revenues vanished.
Countries that enacted windfall taxes, such as Zambia and Mongolia, quickly repealed them.
Many experts thought the recession would be a wake-up call for governments that they
should not try to bleed dry a cyclical industry when times are good, but it appears to have been
forgotten already.
However, it is also clear today that if governments go too far with this mining taxation, they
will face resistance. When former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd tried to implement his
infamous "super profits" tax on mining in 2010, it turned out to be the tipping point that cost him his
job. Likewise, the negative investor and analyst reaction to the Kinross-Ecuador deal shows that the
government clearly went too far in that case.
Experts said there is also a longterm risk to countries that try to seize higher taxes, as
exploration dollars will drift elsewhere to lowertax jurisdictions. Ecuador is a prime example of that,
as exploration activity is not nearly as strong today as it was a few years ago.
"I think [governments] who step too far will quickly realize the impact and will hopefully try
and consult," Mr. Whelan said.
"The best companies, the ones that understand the importance of having good relationships
and a good reputation, will engage in those discussions."
Fonte: National Post
Data: 06/03/2012
CHINA CHILLS RESOURCE PRICES
With the country reducing its growth projection to a 7.5% gain this year, prices
for many metals slide on fears of a drop in demand.
The prospect of slower growth in China threw a scare into commodity markets on Monday,
raising worries about the sustainability of Asia's voracious demand for a host of natural resources.
Commodity prices slumped and stocks in the sector retreated sharply after China lowered its
gross domestic product growth target for the year to 7.5 per cent from 8 per cent, extending a trend
of slowing expansion. Last year the economy grew by 9.2 per cent, down from 10.3 per cent in 2010.
The new GDP target, if hit, would be the first dip below 8 per cent since 2004, a significant
change for the world's second-largest economy. China is a huge buyer of raw materials - its
demand takes up more than 40 per cent of the world's copper, zinc, aluminum and nickel - so any
slowdown in consumption can send prices tumbling in those commodities and many others. The
S&P/TSX capped metals and mining index sank 4.4 per cent Monday. Copper prices fell about 1 per
cent, while gold was down $5.90 (U.S.) an ounce to $1,703.90. On the floor of the Prospectors and
Developers Association of Canada convention in Toronto on Monday, miners were focused on the
nuts and bolts of their businesses, expecting that China will continue to underpin solid long-term
demand for most metals. Clynt Nauman, chief executive officer of silver, lead and zinc miner Alexco
Resource Corp., said China's slower growth may prompt some price declines, but not a collapse.
"It's high-growth rather than unbelievably spectacular growth," he said. "I don't think it'll have
a big impact on our business."
Labrador Iron Mines Holdings Ltd. vice-chairman Bill Hooley said that last year, his firm sold all
of its production to China. Still, he said, "China slowing down doesn't necessarily mean the iron ore
price collapses, though demand may weaken."
Bart Melek, head of commodities strategy at TD Securities, said markets have been "almost
euphoric" in the past few months, and the reality is sinking in that Chinese growth is slowing. Still, the
Chinese government had already signalled a slowdown, he noted, and the pullback may prove shortlived.
Patricia Mohr, commodity market specialist at Bank of Nova Scotia, said Chinese growth
performance is exceptionally important because "China is highly dominant in most raw materials
markets around the world."
Ms. Mohr and other commodity experts say they expect the price softness to be temporary,
with strength in the sector to resume within months thanks to broad growth in Asia, an improving
U.S. economy, and a slightly improved picture in Europe.
"I think the bull run in commodities, based on emerging market growth, is still going to be
with us for the next five years at least," Ms. Mohr said. She expects a "soft landing" in China's
economy with "reasonably strong" economic growth this year and next. Consequently, metals and
mineral prices are going to avoid a severe drop, she said, "and in fact probably rally back as we move
through the year."
In addition, TD's Mr. Melek said, it is highly likely that Chinese officials will take some steps to
stimulate the weakening economy. These actions could range from cutting interest rates to direct
stimulus - such as beefing up an already massive program to build more affordable housing. Those
actions could help lift commodity markets worldwide, he said.
Because the commodity-price impact from a weakened Chinese economy will be relatively
brief, it is unlikely there will be much in the way of structural changes at Canadian commodity
producers, Mr. Melek said. Projects now under way are likely to be unaffected.
Even if copper, gold or silver were hit by significant price drops, they are still high enough that
mining companies will continue their expansion, he said. "In copper, even a 20 per cent dip [in price]
would mean that most producers are still making a lot of money." One commodity that may not see
much impact from a weaker Chinese economy is oil.
Slower growth in China will certainly push down demand growth for oil, said TD Securities'
energy commodity strategist David Bouckhout. In theory this would put downward pressure on
prices, but that effect is being offset at the moment by the "geopolitical risk" in Iran, which is driving
prices in the other direction.
If there is some military action in Iran, oil prices will spike, Mr. Bouckhout said, because of
disruptions to oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. The impact of China's slightly weaker
economy would be completely masked in that situation, he said. On Monday, the price of oil rose 2
cents to $106.72 a barrel.
Fonte: The Globe and Mail
Data: 06/03/2012
BILL WOULD FORCE DISCLOSURE OF CONCESSION FEES
John McKay knows he will never be viewed as a friend by the Canadian mining industry. But
he thinks he is coming up with something that even his staunchest opponents will be able to support.
Mr. McKay, a federal Liberal member of parliament, is working on new legislation that would
force resource companies to disclose what they pay to foreign governments for a concession. It is
essentially a Canadianized version of the Dodd-Frank legislation in the United States, which forced
Canadian firms on U.S. stock exchanges to disclose all their payments to non-U.S. governments.
"We've gone through a whole process to see what might be tolerable to the mining
companies and get them into a bit more of a regulatory environment than the Wild West it currently
is," Mr. McKay said in an interview.
In the Canadian mining sector, Mr. McKay might still be Public Enemy No. 1. He is the man
behind the infamous Bill C-300, a private member's bill that attempted to regulate the activities of
Canadian mining companies overseas. If implemented, the bill would have given the federal
government more authority to investigate companies overseas, and withhold financing from those
found to have committed improper acts. The industry lobbied fiercely against it, arguing it would do
massive reputational damage without offering any benefits. At the 2010 PDAC conference, anti-C-300
pins were ubiquitous despite the fact private member bills almost never become law.
The bill died on third reading in October 2010, when some of Mr. McKay's fellow Liberals
didn't support it. However, it began a vigorous and productive debate on the activities of Canadian
companies overseas and forced the resource industry to take corporate social responsibility (CSR)
issues much more seriously.
If you go to the annual meeting of many big Canadian miners today, they describe all their
CSR work in excruciating detail. That wasn't the case before C-300.
There is much less for miners to disagree with in Mr. McKay's new proposal than there was in
C-300. It provides greater transparency for shareholders, and companies that dual-list in the United
States are already doing it.
"The more these payments [to governments] see the light of day, the better chance
companies have of operating in a more regulated environment, and it brings greater certainty to their
investments," Mr. McKay said. "And shareholders, who should have some say, get to know a bit more
about their investment."
There was one incident in particular in the past year that speaks to the potential value of this
bill: the implosion of Sino-Forest Corp., once Canada's largest forestry company. Regulators have
struggled to unwind Sino-Forest's web of third-party relationships in China, and greater disclosure
could only have helped prevent the debacle in the first place.
Mr. McKay said the Sino mess is "probably a contributor" to his legislation, but he was
thinking about it well before that.
The mining industry is still a little wary of this proposal, which is not surprising given its history
with Mr. McKay. However, it is much more optimistic about this offering than it was with C-300.
"In principle, the industry has got no issue with transparency of payments. Most of our
members signed up with the [Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative], so it's not going to be
nearly as divisive as C-300 was," said Pierre Gratton, president and chief executive of the Mining
Association of Canada.
He noted that prior to C-300, the MAC had no mandate to look at international issues. Now it
has a strong focus on those issues. In January, the organization received results from an independent
study that showed the Canadian mining industry has made significant progress in terms of its
corporate social responsibility practices in developing countries.
For his part, Mr. McKay just wants to see the industry come under firmer regulations when it
operates overseas. He doesn't see it happening without some prodding from the outside.
"I think there has to be, at some point or another, a regulator environment for this massive
industry which is critical to Canada's prosperity, and I don't think it's going to come under this
government. It's just ideologically not interested," he said.
Fonte: National Post
Data: 06/03/2012
FOREIGN BUYERS BOUND TO DRAW MORE SCRUTINY
On Nov. 3, 2010, many people thought the days of widespread foreign investment in Canada's
resource firms were finished.
That was the day the federal government blocked the $40-billion takeover bid for Potash
Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. While most everyone agreed the move was purely political, there was
concern that it heralded a new era in Canada's attitude to foreign takeovers.
Protectionist sentiment across the country was growing well before the Potash decision, as
the foreign takeovers of companies like Inco Ltd., Falconbridge Ltd. and Stelco Inc. led to layoffs and
concerns that Corporate Canada was being "hollowed out."
In particular, there was (and still is) suspicion about investments from Chinese state-owned
enterprises (SOEs), which were rumoured bidders for Potash Corp. But fast forward to today, and it
seems like the Potash controversy never happened.
There have been numerous large-scale investments in Canada's resources by foreign firms
(including Chinese SOEs) over the past year, and they barely generated a ripple of opposition. They
include Sinopec's $2.2-billion takeover of Daylight Energy Ltd., China National Offshore Oil Corp.'s
$2.1-billion acquisition of OPTI Canada Inc., and the $1-billion takeover of Grande Cache Coal Corp.
by two commodity trading houses from Asia. There was even a hostile, $6.3-billion Chinese bid for
Equinox Minerals Ltd., a Canadian miner operating in Africa.
In addition to the outright takeovers, there were numerous investments in Canadian
resources from firms in China, Japan and South Korea.
It all suggests that foreign firms have shrugged off the Potash controversy and are willing to
pour billions into Canadian mining and energy firms, which are eager to grab their capital.
"It just goes to show that SOEs, and in particular the Asian ones, have a high level of
confidence in the Canadian regulatory regime," says Frank Turner, a partner at Osler, Hoskin &
Harcourt LLP.
It is interesting that they feel that way, because the Harper government has given them little
reason to do so. After the Potash decision, the government indicated it would bring more clarity to
Investment Canada rules, and particularly the "net benefit" test. That has not happened; in fact, the
prime minister recently made a protectionist comment related to Research in Motion Ltd.
But experts said that even without more clarification, Canada remains an extremely attractive
jurisdiction for these firms to spend capital. Other countries (notably Australia) have been less
friendly to SOEs.
"I don't think there a reason to think an SOE is at a disadvantage investing in Canada if the
deal is demonstrably beneficial to Canada," says Oliver Borgers, a partner and competition expert at
McCarthy Tétrault.
But while foreign investors have been active in Canada in the past year, they have avoided the
megadeals (such as Potash Corp.) that would draw more attention. It is quite possible that
Investment Canada rules would come under greater scrutiny if that happened.
For now, the only real lesson for foreign investors to draw from the Potash debacle is that
they should avoid big deals when there is a potential election overhanging the government. That is
the surest way to draw attention to the "net benefit" question.
"It is a political process, and it has to be," says Peter Glossop, a partner and advisor on foreign
investment reviews at Osler.
Fonte: National Post
Data: 06/03/2012
THE BATTLE TO KEEP PROFITS
Government taxes target the mining sector.
Resource sector profits have long been tempting to governments around the world. This is
particularly true at a time when so many nations continue to struggle to repay record levels of
debt.
In the past year alone, mining royalties increased in Australia, Chile, Peru, South Africa,
Ghana, Tanzania and Burkina Faso, while new export duties were introduced in India, Kazakhstan
and Russia. In Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of seaborne thermal coal, miners are now
obligated to help the country meet its energy commitments before they can gain access to lucrative
Asian export markets. More worrying, rumours of greater government participation in the mining
industry surfaced across countries as diverse as Venezuela, South Africa, Guinea and Mongolia.
Notably, the bid to increase national revenues now extends beyond the introduction of new
tax legislation. In addition to mining royalties, which tend to be charged against revenues rather than
profits, many governments have begun to impose super-profit taxes, discovery bonuses, resource
rents, licence fees, indigenization quotas, environmental levies and reconstruction tolls. Amid these
rising levels of resource nationalism, some countries are even threatening to renegotiate existing tax
stability agreements, throwing mining company financial projections into disarray and heightening
political risk.
For companies already invested in potentially fiscally-unstable regimes, this new level of
taxation is bound to affect project profitability. At the same time, it is spurring mining companies to
think long and hard about where to situate their future activity. Considered from an international
perspective, mining investment is increasingly mobile. To maximize investor returns and manage
political uncertainty, companies must engage more consistently in financial modeling when choosing
jurisdictions. To ensure all stakeholder interests are taken into account, these financial models also
must strike a balance between social, economic and environmental imperatives.
Companies also need to engage at a political level to help influence government policy. This
extends beyond disconnected lobbying efforts. By speaking with one voice at an industry-wide level,
mining executives can encourage governments to take into account the wide-ranging effects of their
taxation policies – not only on short-term national revenues but on potential long-term losses should
companies divert their investments to alternative locations. Examples of countries that continue to
keep taxes in line in an effort to attract greater investment – including certain Canadian provinces,
Mexico, Colombia and Nigeria – support the argument.
This is not to suggest the adoption of an aggressive or combative stance. Instead, it requires a
proactive, collaborative approach that illustrates to all stakeholders the extent to which mining
activities, and mining profits, already contribute to the well-being of both local communities and
society at large.
Fonte: Deloitte – Tracking the trends 2012 – The top 10 trends mining companies may face in the
coming year.
Data: 31/10/2011
MINING COMPANIES COMBAT LABOUR SHORTAGE WITH TRAINING, BONUSES
Anita Bertisen’s family and friends thought she was crazy when she enrolled in a mining
engineering program in 1998, when the notoriously volatile industry was struggling worldwide.
As it turned out, Ms. Bertisen was just ahead of her time. A senior engineer at Californiabased consulting firm Tetra Tech Inc., she now deflects weekly pitches from headhunters.
t’s part of a broader trend, as a tight labour supply holds back growth across the mining
sector, with shortages of skilled labour from senior engineers to welders.
Companies are looking for creative ways to fill the gap, from more intensive and accelerated
training to new bonus structures, and the subject is a hot topic at the Prospectors and Developers
Association of Canada conference in Toronto.
The mood at the conference is cautiously optimistic, and many businesses are expanding –
Ms. Bertisen’s office in Golden, Colo., more than doubled its work force in the last 18 months. But
miners need more workers, and a handle on labour costs, to keep growing.
In the next decade Canada’s mining sector will need more than 100,000 mostly skilled new
hires to sustain even modest growth, the Mining Industry Human Resources Council, a not-for-profit
organization financed by the federal government and the mining industry, said last September.
It estimated that 201,000 people worked in the sector in 2011, many of whom are close to
retirement age. Similar trends are seen around the world.
Tetra Tech’s approach is to hire 25-year-olds – or “kids,” as some veterans call them – and
train them. “Right now I’m an old-timer in my company. That’s how many new people we have,” said
Ms. Bertisen, who joined in 2010, when she was 30. Ideally, consulting firms would hire experienced
staff, she said, but that’s not possible right now.
Jeff Wilson, the company’s director of geology, sees training and higher pay as one way of
filling in for a missing generation of engineers and geologists.
“Most folks in the industry are [Ms. Bertisen’s] age or below, and then 50 or above. There’s
very little in between,” he said. “You’ve had a series of booms and busts, and in each of the busts
we’ve let the kids go.” That is why the mining sector will be hit particularly hard as baby boomers
retire.
Now when Mr. Wilson hires a junior geologist, the company shells out some $10,000 in the
first year for things such as software training. Ms. Bertisen’s side of the business has had to develop
mentorship and training programs for the first time. “The internal bottleneck is people, definitely,”
said Daniel Simoncini, chief executive of Foraco International SA, a French-based drilling company
that trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange. “Everybody is developing his own solutions.”
Those initiatives are starting to pay off, Mr. Simoncini said. Foraco now trains drill operators in
as little as 18 months, rather than two and a half years, as in the past.
“We screen very carefully upfront,” he said. “Then we send them on the rigs as a third man.
It’s an extra cost for us, but at least the guy gets full exposure.”
Foraco is also pushing its customers – mostly major mining companies – to sign longer
contracts so it can put more operators on salary, rather than hiring freelancers, as they now do in
North America.
Diversified miner Thompson Creek Metals, with offices in Montreal and Toronto, has managed
to avoid delays associated with labour shortages, but chief executive Kevin Loughrey said it has paid
in high turnover and somewhat lower productivity than he would like.
“We try to make our workplace attractive and enter into deals that sometimes will have
performance bonuses for people who do well, to try to get them to stay,” he said.
Indeed, wages are rising. In December, average weekly earnings in mining, quarrying and oil
and gas extraction rose 8.5 per cent year-over-year, according to Statistics Canada.
Cabo Drilling Corp., based in North Vancouver, B.C., awards slightly higher bonuses than its
competitors, but keeps half the money until the end of the year. The idea is to hold on to operators
through the summer, when rivals are most likely to poach.
Australia’s AMC Consultants says it cannot compete with bigger outfits on salary, so the
company tries to offer a higher quality of life – allowing employees to work from home, for example.
John Smith, chief executive of Vancouver-based Silver Standard Resources Inc., agrees that retention
is about more than money.
“Nothing keeps people like excitement,” he said. “Yes, you have to pay people a fair day’s
wages, but what I think keeps people is a sense of excitement, and the feeling that what they are
doing is making a difference.”
Fonte: The Globe and Mail
Data: 06/03/2012
BITRIBUTAÇÃO PODE DESESTIMULAR INVESTIMENTO FORA DO BRASIL, DIZ VALE
O presidente da Vale, Murilo Ferreira, afirmou na noite desta segunda-feira que a bitributação
por parte do governo brasileiro pode ser um desestímulo para que as empresas brasileiras invistam
fora do país. No fim do mês passado, a mineradora teve sucessivas derrotas nos processos que
envolvem a cobrança de Imposto de Renda e Contribuição sobre Lucro Líquido (CSLL) em relação a
ganhos de controladas no exterior, cujas cifras podem atingir R$ 30,5 bilhões.
Ferreira observou que até agora não houve o julgamento do mérito em nenhuma instância
judicial e ressaltou que a companhia ainda avalia como conduzir o processo, depois que a disputa
saiu da esfera do Conselho Administrativo de Recursos Financeiros (Carf) e passou para o Judiciário.
Fonte: Valor Online
Data: 12/03/2012
TAXA DE MINERAÇÃO COMEÇA A SER COBRADA EM 15 DIAS EM MINAS GERAIS
Governo pretende arrecadar pelo menos R$ 500 milhões; empresas alegam que
ficarão menos competitivas.
A cobrança da chamada taxa da mineração será iniciada dentro de 15 dias. Apesar das
ameaças de ações na Justiça, questionando a constitucionalidade da cobrança, a Advocacia Geral do
Estado (AGE) informou que não recebeu nenhuma notificação neste sentido. A Secretaria de Estado
da Fazenda (SEF) está finalizando a regulamentação da cobrança e pretende iniciá-la em 27 deste
mês, 90 dias após a sanção pelo governador da lei 19.976, aprovada na Assembleia Legislativa de
Minas Gerais. A expectativa é de uma arrecadação anual acima de R$ 500 milhões.
Esse montante foi estimado com base no valor que será cobrado, de uma Unidade Fiscal do
Estado de Minas Gerais (Ufemg), vigente na data do vencimento, por tonelada extraída. Para o
exercício de 2011, cada Ufemg tem o valor de R$ 2,1813. Projeto semelhante também já foi aprovado
no Pará, segunda maior província mineral do país. No entanto, naquele estado a taxa foi estipulada
em R$ 6 por tonelada extraída, o que deve assegurar ao Executivo uma receita de R$ 800 milhões.
A Taxa de Controle, Monitoramento e Fiscalização das Atividades de Pesquisa, Lavra,
Exploração e Aproveitamento de Recursos Minerários (TFRM) tem como finalidade financiar projetos
de recuperação ambiental nas áreas de mineração e monitorar e fiscalizar a atividade minerária.
A TFRM vai incidir sobre bauxita, terras-raras, cobre, estanho, ferro, lítio, manganês, níquel,
tântalo, titânio, zinco e zircônio. A atividade extrativa na região Norte de Minas, onde espera-se que
seja formado um novo polo minerário, está isenta de taxação.
Como nessa região a incidência é de minérios mais pobres, a taxa poderia minar a
competitividade dos negócios.
A Confederação Nacional da Indústria (CNI) informou que sua Comissão de Mineração vai se
reunir dentro de 15 dias para deliberar sobre uma eventual Ação Direta de Inconstitucionalidade
(Adin).
A entidade encomendou pareceres jurídicos sobre a cobrança da TFRM tanto em Minas como
no Pará, mas ainda não tem uma posição definida. No Instituto Brasileiro de Mineração (Ibram), que
já se manifestou de forma contrária à taxa, ninguém foi encontrado para comentar o assunto.
A alegação do setor minerário é de que os estados não tem autonomia para legislar sobre o
subsolo do país, uma vez que este pertence a União. Juristas também apontam que, diferentemente
de impostos e tributos, a arrecadação deve ser suficiente apenas para cobrir os custos com a
fiscalização.
Em Minas, o governo cobra pelo volume produzido, que não teria ligação direta com essas
despesas. Por outro lado, advogados especializados em direito minerário também afirmam que, em
sua defesa, o governo pode alegar que não está legislando sobre o subsolo, mas exercendo seu papel
de polícia ao fiscalizar a atividade.
O setor de mineração também sustenta que a taxação pode comprometer a competitividade
da produção nacional frente aos concorrentes internacionais, mesmo que a a Lei Kandir isente de
Imposto sobre Circulação de mercadorias e Prestação de Serviços (ICMS) os produtos destinados ao
comércio transoceânico. No país, cerca de 80% do minério de ferro produzido é destinado à
exportação.
Fonte: Hoje em dia
Data: 12/03/2012
EXPLORAÇÃO DE MINÉRIO VAI MUDAR A VIDA NA SERRA DO CIPÓ
Só com um tributo, a arrecadação da cidade pode crescer mais de 14 vezes
Os 3.400 habitantes da pequena Morro do Pilar, na região Central de Minas Gerais, a 150 km
de Belo Horizonte, estão prestes a ter sua rotina abalada. O município, ao pé da serra do Espinhaço,
na região da serra do Cipó, vai receber investimentos bilionários nos próximos quatro anos. O
dinheiro virá da Manabi Holdings, mineradora que está sendo criada especialmente para explorar o
minério de ferro da região.
A empresa, cuja constituição ainda está sendo formalizada, não comenta oficialmente o
assunto. Mas, segundo o secretário de Desenvolvimento Econômico de Morro do Pilar, Elmar Aguiar
Matos, que mantém frequentes contatos com os representantes da mineradora, a operação deverá
gerar 2.500 empregos diretos e 4.000 indiretos. Tudo isso numa cidade em que a população só tem
diminuído desde 1996, segundo o IBGE, e que tem poucas pousadas, sustentadas pela visitação às
cachoeiras da região.
Economicamente, os ganhos são inegáveis. O dinheiro no caixa do município pode aumentar,
pelo menos, 14 vezes. Em 2016, quando deve começar a extração mineral, a Compensação Financeira
pela Exploração Mineral (CFEM), paga sobre o faturamento bruto das mineradoras, será de 4% (hoje
são 2%, mas o governo já confirmou que vai dobrar).
Considerando a extração de 25 milhões de toneladas por ano - informação dada pelo
secretário municipal - e estimando o preço da tonelada de minério de ferro em US$ 100, é possível
mensurar uma receita anual de, ao menos, R$ 117 milhões, só com a CFEM, sem contar impostos
como IPTU e ISS. Morro do Pilar fechou 2011 com receita de R$ 8,3 milhões.
Socialmente, no entanto, há dúvidas sobre o impacto. "É uma população acostumada com
vida tranquila e que vai sofrer uma mudança drástica", conta o secretário. A principal atividade
econômica da região, cercada por cachoeiras, é o ecoturismo.
De acordo com Matos, integrantes da empresa têm se reunido informalmente com a
comunidade para informar sobre a futura atividade. "Aqui, as pessoas dormem com a janela aberta e
com os carros destrancados", diz. "Temos uma preocupação com a segurança, por saber que a cidade
vai receber tanta gente desconhecida, do Brasil inteiro". Ações compensatórias geralmente ligadas a
esse tipo de investimento, como a construção de escolas, bibliotecas, hospitais e estradas, ainda não
foram definidas.
Por enquanto, também é difícil mensurar a dimensão dos impactos ambientais, já que ainda
não sabe onde serão abertas as cavas. Segundo a Secretaria de Estado de Meio Ambiente e
Desenvolvimento Sustentável (Semad), a empresa ainda não solicitou nenhuma das licenças
necessárias para o empreendimento (licenças prévia, de instalação e de operação). Só o que se sabe
é que as minas não serão abertas na área de preservação ambiental de 1.700 hectares que existe no
município.
Fonte: O Tempo
Data: 14/03/2012
MINA DE OURO REPOUSA SOB A POBREZA
Há aproximadamente dois séculos, levas de aventureiros se revezaram por algum tempo em
temporadas quase sempre breves na região de Cachoeira, uma área inóspita e na época pouco
habitada do município de Viseu, próximo à divisa com o Maranhão. Eles não se demoravam ali por
lazer. Eram faiscadores de ouro, garimpeiros em trânsito, aventureiros movidos pela ilusão da
riqueza fácil.
Mas só garimpeiros? Nos primeiros tempos, sim. Depois deles, entretanto, vieram as
mineradoras, empresas organizadas. Mas elas também não criaram raízes. A primeira foi a canadense
Brascan, que lá chegou em 1954. Depois dela vieram várias outras, todas também meio que de
passagem, e entre elas, como ocorreu sempre ao longo dos últimos dois anos, novas levas de
garimpeiros, sazonalmente na busca de ouro. Agora, está lá a décima empresa de mineração.
Cachoeira, que durante muitas décadas não passou de um simples garimpo, às vezes rústico e
hostil, às vezes semiabandonado, começou a mudar sua história a partir da década de 1990. Em
1995, mais precisamente o antigo vilarejo que foi se formando ao longo dos anos, e já então elevado
à condição de vila, obteve finalmente a sua emancipação político-administrativa. O antigo distrito de
Viseu transformou-se em município e a partir daí ganhou vida própria.
Desde então, Cachoeira do Piriá cresceu bastante. Sua população hoje é estimada em perto
de 28 mil habitantes. Mas é uma população pobre. O mais recente diagnóstico social lá realizado
concluiu que a taxa de analfabetismo no município é de 76%, o índice de pobreza chega a 49,7%, o
rendimento médio da população é de R$ 196,53, sendo o último censo do IBGE, e 40% das famílias
dependem do Bolsa Família. Cachoeira do Piriá rivaliza também com alguns municípios do Marajó na
lista dos que têm o mais baixo Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano – lá, de 0,551 – de todo o Estado.
De tudo isso, de certa forma já se sabia, inclusive a própria população local. Mas agora já
existem fatos novos que poucos conhecem. Por exemplo: parte da população pobre de Cachoeira do
Piriá vive literalmente sobre um depósito subterrâneo de ouro. E mais: exatamente por estar em
cima desse depósito, uma parcela dos moradores da cidade vai ter que deixar o local e ser
remanejada para outra área. Com direito a indenização justa, obviamente.
Outra coisa que as pessoas ignoram, mas não deveriam ignorar – principalmente aquelas que
residem em Cachoeira – é que elas estão expostas a duas situações extremamente perigosas. Uma, o
uso de explosivos (dinamite) por pessoas não autorizadas nem capacitadas a manusear produtos
perigosos, o que constitui crime. Outra, o processamento de rejeitos do antigo garimpo em duas
plantas de cianetação.
Os rejeitos são coletados e vendidos aos responsáveis pelas duas plantas por ex-garimpeiros
desempregados. Ocorre que as unidades de cianetação estão operando de forma irregular. Elas
ocupam irregularmente áreas que já possuem portarias de lavra expedidas pelo Departamento
Nacional da Produção Mineral (DNPM), não têm autorização legal para funcionar e muito menos o
licenciamento ambiental, obrigatório nesse tipo de empreendimento. E o que é mais grave: o
cianeto, que estão utilizando no processo de extração do ouro, é um dos produtos químicos mais
tóxicos e letais que existem na natureza. Ou seja, estão colocando em sério risco a vida das pessoas e
o meio ambiente.
DNPM na defesa dos garimpeiros
A flagrante ilegalidade das operações que estão se processando no antigo garimpo, por um
lado, e por outro as graves ameaças que a atividade hoje representa para a população local levaram o
Departamento Nacional da Produção Mineral (DNPM) a buscar uma solução urgente.
Ainda esta semana esteve em Belém, vindo de Brasília, o seu diretor de gestão de títulos
minerários, Jomar Feitosa. Ele se reuniu com o superintendente do DNPM no Pará, João Bosco
Pereira Braga, e com dirigentes e executivos da empresa que detém a portaria de lavra.
Na verdade, são duas empresas de um mesmo grupo, conforme explicou João Bosco Braga.
Em Cachoeira do Piriá, do lado paraense, atua a Luna Gold, detentora de direitos sobre uma área com
reserva estimada em 15 toneladas de ouro. Do outro lado da fronteira, já em território maranhense,
no município de Godofredo Viana, atua a Aurizona Mineração, com projeto mecanizado que já
produz ouro desde 2008.
O que acontece ali é fácil de ser explicado, à luz do conhecimento geológico que hoje se tem
da área: o veio de ouro subterrâneo, criado pela natureza sem se importar com os limites geográficos
idealizado pelo homem, avança por debaixo do solo em duas direções, alcançando de um lado o
Maranhão e, de outro, a cidade de Cachoeira, dezenas de metros abaixo da superfície onde mora
parte da população local.
Para resgatar a ordem e restaurar na cidade o princípio da legalidade, Jomar Feitosa disse que
foi acionado um grupo de trabalho da Coordenação e Ordenamento Mineral (Cordem). Esse grupo
está atuando em conjunto com a Secretaria de Meio Ambiente do Estado e Secretaria de Indústria,
Comércio e Mineração. Também vai ser buscada a parceria com a Prefeitura Municipal de Cachoeira
e com os garimpeiros, através das lideranças e entidades que representam a categoria.
O diretor do DNPM deixou claro que a empresa mineradora terá que cumprir uma série de
condicionantes nas áreas social e ambiental. Quanto aos garimpeiros, a ideia é que eles sejam
treinados e capacitados para trabalhar na atividade industrial.
“É preciso haver equilíbrio entre empreendedorismo econômico e responsabilidade social.
Nós precisamos, sim, restaurar o princípio de legalidade e ao mesmo tempo montar uma equação em
que todos possam ganhar o que é justo - a remuneração do capital para a empresa, tributos para o
município, o Estado e a União, e a oportunidade de trabalho digno para os garimpeiros que hoje
vivem em condições degradantes”, finalizou.
Fonte: Diário do Pará
Data: 04/03/2012
E&MJ’S ANNUAL SURVEY OF GLOBAL MINING INVESTMENT
The number of new investment projects announced by the global mining industry increased
steadily for two six-month periods, starting from a low point in the first half of 2010 to more than 90
new projects in the first half of 2011. During the second half of 2011, however, it appeared the
growing debt crisis also impacted the mining sector. The number of new projects announced declined
when compared with the first half 2011, and also when compared with the second half of 2010. Is
this just a random variation—or has global mining project investment peaked much quicker than
anticipated by most analysts?
During 2011, 136 new mining projects with a total projected value of $74 billion were
registered in Raw Materials Group’s Mines/Projects database. Overall, investment activity in 2011
was higher than in 2010 but the most recent developments raise questions for the future. As
mentioned above, however, it is too early to draw far reaching conclusions about the state of the
mining industry from this material, as its annual figures remain healthy.
It is now more difficult to predict the industry’s 2012 investment trends than it has been for
both 2010 and 2011, but RMG remains optimistic in the long-term outlook for the sector. Population
growth and economic development in the emerging economies are positive and provide a strong
base for continued growth in metal demand: hence the need for increased mine production and for
new-project investment.
At the end of 2011, the total value of announced investment in the global mining industry’s
project pipeline as recorded in RMD Metals Mines/Projects database was $676 billion, an increase of
more than 20% compared with investment status at the end of 2010. In the previous year, growth
was of the same order of magnitude, but the quick recovery of 2010 reversed in late 2011. RMG,
along with most observers, expected the recovery to continue throughout 2011 but the European
debt crisis, coupled with some hesitation concerning metal prices, slowed mining investment.
The number of projects announced in the third and fourth quarters of 2011 declined when
compared with the same period in 2010 and the number of new projects announced annually has
remained static since 2009. However, caution must be exercised when estimating the total amount in
the investment pipeline, as there is a tendency for the pipeline to accumulate projects that are no
longer active. It is sometimes difficult to determine when a marginal project is to be considered
abandoned and should be taken off the list. Currently, RMG removes projects about which there has
been no news within eight years of first mention.
Also, absolute figures at each year end are not directly comparable, primarily because it is
impossible to ensure that all possible projects are included. For example, due to a publishing
schedule change by E&MJ, this year’s survey was compiled slightly earlier than in the past, thus
posing the possibility that it may not include some projects announced late in 2011. It’s also possible
the apparent decline in the number of projects listed in the survey could result from decreased
coverage of the very smallest projects. However, our conclusion that mining investment has slowed is
firm, despite these uncertainties. Our expectation from a year ago, of a continued increase in the
number of announced new projects all through 2011, proved to be too optimistic.
Project Costs on the Rise
The trend of increasing investment costs, which we previously highlighted in late 2010, has
continued through 2011. We also noted previously that many projects are being expanded when
moving from the feasibility to the construction phase and this tendency continued in 2011. Cost
increases are thus not due entirely to increasing unit costs but also to rapid growth in metal demand.
Additional important cost drivers are more complex ore bodies, deeper lying deposits with
lower grades and more remote locations of new mines. Costs for equipment and construction work
seem to be increasing again and many equipment suppliers are operating near full productive
capacity.
Problems caused by lack of experienced staff, which disappeared in 2009 and 2010, have reemerged although not at the severe levels experienced in late 2007 and early 2008. The difficulties in
recruiting students to attend mining schools in Europe and North America continue, but in China and
India and other emerging economies the situation is different and mining engineering and geology
studies remain popular.
Metal prices fell in the second half of 2011 but remain comparatively high, particularly when
taking into account the three most economically important metals: iron ore, copper and gold. These
three metals together account for 73% of the total value at the mine stage of all metals produced
globally. Given the continued strong metal demand from China, India and other emerging economies
RMG does not expect metal prices to drop dramatically in 2012—on the contrary, we believe they
will hold up fairly well.
Although the investment pipeline continued to grow in 2011, the inflow of new projects
slowed in the second half, while the share of projects at the feasibility stage declined for the second
consecutive year. This may be due to the very sharp drop in exploration activity in 2009, which
resulted in a smaller number of early-stage projects being launched during the height of the financial
crisis, but it is difficult to determine with certainty at this stage. The share of projects at the
construction stage also declined slowly during 2011 when compared with 2009 and 2010, but
investment in brownfield projects increased in absolute terms while the relative share has increased
marginally. Brownfield projects require less funding, with the average brownfield project valued at
$322 million, while the average investment for greenfield projects is $623 million. Although this
statistical comparison does not take into account the capacity of each project, our view is that
brownfield projects also are generally more cost-effective when measured on a capacity basis.
However, it is difficult to accurately monitor the progress of brownfield projects from project
studies to construction because they are often carried out internally and quickly, without public
disclosure. Our total investment figure for projects under construction is undoubtedly an
underestimate, particularly for this project category. Typically, a project takes at least a year—usually
even longer—to develop, depending on its size, location, existing infrastructure, availability of
financing and many other factors.
All of this year’s survey statistics are based on projects with an announced investment
estimate. The RMD Metals database also includes approximately 1,800 projects—mostly in the
conceptual stage—for which no investment figure has been announced. The investment total for all
mining projects, including projects for which no investment estimate has been published, is therefore
larger than the $676 billion recorded at the end of 2011—but it is difficult to estimate how much
larger. If it is assumed that the projects without published investment estimates have a similar cost
structure to those projects whose costs are known, the total figure would increase considerably. It
could, however, also be argued that unannounced-project costs are lower, as most mega-projects are
conducted by public companies that must publicly disclose all significant expenditures. If this is
indeed the case, the total figure would be smaller. Projects involving metals not covered in this
survey but included in the database also represent a specific investment total but one that is
estimated at a much lower level than the major metals represented in the survey.
Many of the early stage projects included in this year’s total investment figure will not, or at
least not during a period of low metal prices, pass from the conceptual study phase to the
construction stage for a number of reasons, including insufficient profitability, inadequate ore
reserves, failure to secure financing, technological problems or excessive political risk. However,
historically RMG has observed that 60%–75% of all projects announced will materialize during a
three-year period.
Iron Ore, Gold Grab More Investment Dollars
Iron ore, copper, gold and nickel, in that order are the most important investment targets for
mining companies. These four metals account for 84% of the total project pipeline. They also
dominate the mining business in terms of the total value of its output; they are cumulatively valued
at $490 billion or 79% of the total value of all non-fuel mineral production during 2010. Iron ore
investment surpassed that of copper with a project pipeline of $215 billion—compared with $179
million for copper—while gold and nickel are at much lower levels ($111 billion and $64 billion,
respectively), distantly followed by a group of metals that include uranium, lead/zinc and PGMs,
valued at $15–$20 billion.
Investment levels for both iron ore and gold increased by 33% to 35% in 2011. Iron ore
continued its extraordinary growth, generating $53 billion in new projects during 2011. Activity in the
gold pipeline recovered particularly strong in 2011 after a weak 2010 produced a new-project growth
rate of only 11%. New gold projects were valued at $28 billion in 2011, compared with just $7 billion
in 2010. Copper grew by $24 billion or 15%, much lower than the $32 billion of project investment
added in 2010 when its growth rate was 25%.
Gold projects are typically relatively small, in terms of investment, but the number of projects
is high. In 2011, 53 new gold projects were announced, not surprising considering the record high
gold prices of 2011. Newly announced iron ore projects totaled 21 in 2011, along with 24 new copper
projects. The average iron ore project investment figure was about $2 billion, with the smallest
projects at $200 million and the largest more than $10 billion. Average investment per gold project
was about $250 million in 2011, up from $205 million in 2010.
Iron ore’s share of total new project investment announced in 2011 remained stable at 47%48% reflecting the high price level for iron ore and continued strong demand mainly in China. Iron ore
projects are huge in all respects: the four largest projects of all categories are iron ore with an
investment amount of more than $10 billion for each of them. The Olympic Dam copper project is the
fifth largest and the largest non-iron ore project. The continuing demand growth for steel and the
concomitant high prices paid for iron ore point to a strong increase in iron ore production during the
next three to five years. However, in recent months there also have been announcements of project
delays and postponed start-ups, indicating that the risk of iron ore production over-capacity
developing—at least during the next couple of years—is low.
The number of nickel projects and investment in the pipeline declined as a result of the bleak
outlook for the nickel market. An increase in new silver projects noted in 2010 dwindled to nothing in
2011. Interest in uranium has continued to grow although the Fukushima accident might dampen
investor interest again. Lead/zinc projects’ share of the total pipeline has continued to decrease, as
has PGMs. Rare earths, which attracted a lot of interest in 2010, also subsided in 2011. Iron ore was
really the only winner in 2011.
Latin America Slips, but Stays on Top
Latin America maintained its leading position in attracting mining investment in 2011, but its
share of the total investment pipeline fell to 28%, the same level recorded in 2009 and a figure that is
no longer more than double that of investment in any other region, as was the case for Latin America
in 2010. North America’s share grew to 18% and Oceania’s to 17%.
Africa also increased its share of total world investments to 15% while Europe maintained its
position and Asia dropped from 13% to 11%, continuing a decline that began after reaching a high of
14% in 2009. The investment pipeline in North America grew by $38 billion in 2011, and in Oceania by
$32 billion. This represents 44% and 40% for these regions, respectively; much higher than the global
average of 20%.
Latin America’s project pipeline includes many more very large projects than any other region;
for example, 56 Latin American-based projects involve investments of more than $1 billion,
compared with 33 projects in Oceania, 20 each in Africa and Asia, and 17 in Europe (12 of which are
located in Russia and the Ukraine, with the rest in Sweden and Greenland).
Europe has continued to move up and has passed Asia as the least favored region, but its
relative share remains 11% of the total at $75 billion. The rising investment trend there, with more
new projects in Finland, Sweden, Greenland and in 2011 also in Norway, has strengthened. The
European Commission continues to follow the development of the local mining sector closely and
although the new Raw Materials Initiative has not, to date, resulted in any major new support
initiatives for the European mining sector, the conditions for the mining industry have not
deteriorated.
In Africa, the African Union has continued work on the African Mining Vision, which aims to
create conditions for mining investment in Africa that enable both the host countries and the
investors to benefit from them. The African countries want to take advantage of strong demand from
China to create a competitive situation between traditional investors from Europe and North America
and new Chinese investors.
U.S. as a Fading Player? Not so Fast…
The growing trend toward resource nationalism has manifested itself in various ways in both
emerging and developed mining countries. Demand for increased royalties or taxes on “super
profits” have been widespread, including established mining nations such as Australia. Calls for
increased state ownership or at least increased ownership by domestic owners have not been limited
to emerging economies such as Zimbabwe and Namibia; in Finland, the idea of establishing a new
state mining company has been discussed among politicians.
Total investment share attracted by the top 10 countries increased in 2011 to 71%, passing
the previous high of 68% in 2008. The trends mentioned above could be the explanation for a strong
growth of projects in North America and Oceania during 2011. Australia, Canada and the U.S.
together accounted for only 26% of the total project pipeline at the end of 2010. In December 2011,
their combined share was 34%, with total value up from $150 billion to $223 billion, an increase of
almost 50% in one year. In our 2010 analysis we wrote off the U.S. as a mining nation and that proved
premature.
Australia maintained its position as the number one nation for mining investments. The iron
ore boom continues there and of the top 20 projects in Australia, 13 are in iron ore and 11 of them
require investment of more than US$1 billion. Canada, in second place, has a much wider mix of
projects, including several gold and base metal projects among the top 20, along with five iron ore
projects, six gold projects and two copper projects on the list.
The combined announced investment value of projects in those two nations is slightly less
than $100 billion. The rest of the Top 10 list changed considerably in 2011. Chile moved up to rank
third, with a total of $54 billion. Brazilian mining investments fell in 2011 and only accounted for 7%
of the total or $46 billion. Russia recaptured fifth place in 2011, and even though the number of
Russia-based projects decreased, the investment volume increased by 18%. The United States
showed the strongest growth over 2011, up by 38% and rising from eighth place to seventh. Mexico
dropped out of the Top 10 and was replaced by Guinea, where three giant iron ore projects involve a
total investment of $16 billion.
Following the Top 10 in descending order are Mexico, Argentina, Papua New Guinea, China,
Indonesia, Sweden, Democratic Republic of Congo and Kazakhstan, each with a portfolio of projects
between $8-$13 billion. It should be noted that some projects are much bigger than others, and one
new project announced or one major project completed in a small country can make a big difference
in the position of this country relative to others. Thus, not too much importance should be put on
relative positions outside the Top 10.
The figure for China is most certainly an underestimate, since many of the projects run by
state-owned companies are never reported in such a way that they reach the international mining
press. With comparable reporting from China there is no doubt that the country would be high up
among the top 10 countries. Chinese projects are mostly small, with an average investment value of
$170 million per project, compared with Canada where the average project is currently valued at
$695 million.
Chinese mining investment activity outside China is still marginal. China’s scramble for
resources in Australia, Africa and elsewhere, which has come into clearer political focus, still
represents minimal investment values despite rapid growth in recent years—but it is growth from an
almost zero start position. It will take years before Chinese companies become powerful global
players in the mining industry, but it will eventually happen.
One of the political goals set for the Chinese mining industry in 2011 is to strengthen control
over its mines in foreign countries, but it has proven difficult to meet the very ambitious targets set
by central authorities.
Fonte: E&MJ
Data: Janeiro de 2012