MESA REDONDA
O FUTURO DOS RECURSOS
O FUTURO
DOS
RECURSOS MINERAIS
Prof. Dr. Iran F. Machado
Inst. Geociências/UNICAMP
Revista MultiCiência
Cocen/Unicamp
Nov/2003
O FUTURO DOS
RECURSOS MINERAIS
1. Evolução geológica do planeta
2. Tempo geológico
3. Disponibilidade de minerais energéticos
e não-energéticos
4. Perspectivas de escassez
5. Questões éticas
Modelos de Ciclo de Vida de uma Commodity Mineral
Meio Ambiente
Disposição
Formação de
Jazida
Modelo
Genético
Erosão
Reciclagem
Modelos
Geoenvironmental
de Jazida
Geoambiental
deposit models
Informação s/Minerais,
Análise, Fluxo de Minerais
Lavra,
Processamento,
Refino
Uso da Commodity
Fonte: USGS, 1998. USGS Mineral Resources Program. A National Perspective. USGS Fact
Sheet FS-008-98.
Evolution of the reserves and identified resources
during the period 1950-2000
(Values in tons, except when indicated)
1950
1974
2000
Growth
in
reserves &
reserves &
reserves &
50 years
identified
identified
identified
(2000/
1950)
resources
resources
resources
Bauxite
1.4 x 10 9
1.6 x 10 10
3.5 x 10 10
25.0x
Copper
1.0 x 10 8
3.9 x 10 8
6.5 x 10 8
6.5x
Gold
3.1 x 10 4
4.0 x 10 4
7.7 x 10 4
2.5x
Iron
1.9 x 10 10
8.8 x 10 10
3.1 x 10 11
16.3x
Lead
4.0 x 10 7
1.5 x 10 8
1.3 x 10 8
3.25x
Nickel
1.4 x 10 7
4.4 x 10 7
1.5 x 10 8
10.7x
Phosphate rock
2.6 x 10 9
1.3 x 10 10
3.7 x 10 10
14.2x
Silver
1.6 x 10 5
1.9 x 10 5
4.2 x 10 5
2.6x
Tin
6.0 x 10 6
1.0 x 10 7
12.0 x 10 6
2.0x
Zinc
7.0 x 10 7
1.2 x 10 8
4.3 x 10 8
6.1x
Coal
6.0 x 1010
6.5 x 1011
9.8 x 10 11
16.3
Oil (bbl)
8.0 x 10 10
7.2 x 10 11
1.05 x 10 12
13.1x
Natural Gas
(m3)
4.7x1012
2.2 x 10 15
1.5 x 10 14
31.9x
Mineral
commodity
Source: USGS (several), BP Statistical Review of World Energy (several),
The Petroleum Handbook, Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies, Fifth edition,
1966, IEA(several), UN-Statistical Yearbook(several)
Source: http://hubbert.mines.edu/news/Udall-Andrews_99-1.pdf
Source: http://hubbert.mines.edu/news/Udall-Andrews_99-1.pdf
Source: http://dieoff.org/page125.htm