O Modelo GSMS goods side/money side (lado real-lado monetário)
da análise macroeconômica
Equação de troca
𝑀×𝑉 =𝑃 ×𝑇
Demanda pela moeda
𝑀 = 𝑘𝑃𝑌𝑟
𝑀 = 𝑘𝑃𝑇
Lado monetário e lado real
𝑀𝑉
=𝑄
𝑃
Liquidez macroeconômica
𝑓(𝑞) =
1
𝑝
Equação de troca e renda
𝑀×𝑉 =𝑄×𝑃 = 𝑌
Amliação
𝑄 × 𝑃 = 𝑌 = 𝐶 + 𝐼 + 𝐺 = 𝑃𝐶 × 𝑄𝐶 + 𝑃𝐼 × 𝑄𝐼 + 𝑃𝐺 × 𝑄𝐺 + 𝑃𝐸𝑋 × 𝑄𝐸𝑋 − 𝑃𝐼𝑀 × 𝑄𝐼𝑀
Liquidez macroeconômica
𝑀𝐿 = 𝑀𝐵 × 𝑚𝑏 × 𝑉
Equação completa
𝐵𝑀 × 𝑚𝑏 × 𝑉 = 𝑄 × 𝑃 = 𝑌 = 𝐶 + 𝐼 + 𝐺 = 𝑃𝐶 × 𝑄𝐶 + 𝑃𝐼 × 𝑄𝐼 + 𝑃𝐺 × 𝑄𝐺 …
Versaõ dinâmica
𝑔𝑀 + 𝑔𝑉 = 𝑔𝑄 + 𝜋
𝜋 = 𝑔𝑀𝐿 − 𝑔𝑄
𝜋 = (𝑔𝑀𝐵 + 𝑔𝑚𝑏 + 𝑔𝑣 ) − (𝑔𝑄𝑛 + 𝑔𝑄𝑐)
Condição para π=0):
(𝑔𝑀𝐵 + 𝑔𝑚𝑏 + 𝑔𝑣 ) = (𝑔𝑄𝑛 + 𝑔𝑄𝑐)
Renda nacional
𝑔𝑌 = 𝑔𝑄 + 𝜋 = 𝑔𝑄𝑛 + 𝑔𝑄𝐶 + 𝜋
Taxa de inflação:
𝜋 = (𝑔𝑀𝐵 + 𝑔𝑚𝑏 + 𝑔𝑣 ) − (𝑔𝑄𝑛 + 𝑔𝑄𝑐)
Table 1
The GS/MS model as a classification tool of macroeconomic configurations
Macroeconomic
liquidity (ML)
0
PLG
Cyclical production Natural production
frontier (CPF)
frontier (NPF)
↘
→
MPI
↗
↑
0
MHI
↗
↖
←
MPD
↙
↓
0
DD
↙
↙
←
IS
0
↑
0
IB
↗
↑
0
Table 2
Macroeconomic configurations in terms of the variables of the GS/MS model
gMB
gmb
gV
gQc
gQn
π
Q
Y
PLG
0
0
0
+
+
-
+
0
MPI
+
+
0
0
0
+
0
+
MHI
+
+
+
-
-
+
-
+
MPD
-
-
-
-
0
-
-
-
DD
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
IS
0
0
0
-
-
+
-
-
IB
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
PLG: Productivity-led (deflationary) economic growth – MPI: Monetary price inflation - MHI:
Monetary hyperinflation – MPD: Monetary price deflation – DD: Deflationary depression – IS:
Inflationary stagnation (stagflation) - IB – Inflationary boom with g: growth rate – MB:
Monetary base – mb: banking multiplier – V: velocity of circulation – Qc: cyclical production –
Qn: natural production – π: price inflation rate – Q: Current output – Y: nominal national
income. The arrows in table 1 indicate direction of the moves of the curves