$SOLFDomRGH'DGRVGH5DGDUHP6LPXODo}HV1XPpULFDVGD&LUFXODomR
)RUoDGDSRU9HQWRQR2FHDQR$WOkQWLFR6XGRHVWH
,YDQ'6RDUHV
)XQGDomR8QLYHUVLGDGH)HGHUDOGR5LR*UDQGH 'HSDUWDPHQWRGH)tVLFD
&3 &(35LR*UDQGH56 %UDVLO
HPDLOGIVLYDQ#VXSHUIXUJEU
5HVXPR
5HVXOWDGRV GH VLPXODo}HV QXPpULFDV GD FLUFXODomR GLUHFLRQDGD SRU YHQWR DR ODUJR GD
FRVWDVXGHVWHGD$PpULFDGR6XOVmRDSUHVHQWDGRV2WUDEDOKRHQIRFDDLPSRUWkQFLDGR
XVR GH GDGRV GH VDWpOLWH HP VLPXODo}HV QXPpULFDV GH UHJL}HV RQGH REVHUYDo}HV GH
GDGRVVmRHVFDVVRVRXSRXFRFRQILiYHLV2VGDGRVGHVDWpOLWHHPTXHVWmRVmRRVGDGRV
GH YHQWR PHGLGRV SRU UDGDU D ERUGR GR VDWpOLWH $'(26 GD DJrQFLD HVSDFLDO MDSRQHVD
1$6'$(VVHVGDGRV IRUDPXWLOL]DGRVSDUDIRUoDURPRGHOR2FHkQLFRGD8QLYHUVLGDGHGH
3ULQFHWRQ320
'XDVVLWXDo}HVIRUDPDERUGDGDVXPDTXHVLPXODDV&RUUHQWHVGR%UDVLOHGDV0DOYLQDV
HRXWUDFXMRHQIRTXHpDLQWHUDomRGRYHQWRFRPDVSOXPDVGR5LRGD3UDWDHGD/DJRD
GRV 3DWRV $ WtWXOR GH YDOLGDomR RV UHVXOWDGRV QXPpULFRV VmR FRPSDUDGRV FRP
REVHUYDo}HVKLGURJUiILFDVHREVHUYDo}HVGDWHPSHUDWXUDVXSHUILFLDOGRPDUSRUVHQVRUHV
$9+55 2V DVSHFWRV FRQVLGHUDGRV QR SURFHVVR GH FRPSDUDomR VmR DV FRQILJXUDo}HV
JHUDLVGRVFDPSRVGHVDOLQLGDGHHWHPSHUDWXUDGHFDGDVLWXDomRGDGRTXHREVHUYDo}HV
GHFRUUHQWHHQtYHOGRPDUVmRUDUDVQDUHJLmRGHHVWXGR
3DODYUDVFKDYHYHQWR16&$7FLUFXODomRFRVWHLUD320
,QWURGXomR
$ UHSUHVHQWDomR QXPpULFD GRV SURFHVVRV RFHDQRJUiILFRV H PHWHRUROyJLFRV YHP
DSUHVHQWDQGR QDV ~OWLPDV GpFDGDV XP VLJQLILFDWLYR DXPHQWR WDQWR GH TXDOLGDGH TXDQWR
GHSUHFLVmR,VVRVHGHYHEDVLFDPHQWHDGRLVDVSHFWRVRLQFUHPHQWRQDFDSDFLGDGHGH
SURFHVVDPHQWRGRVFRPSXWDGRUHVHR DGYHQWRGRVVDWpOLWHVFDGDYH]PDLVDEXQGDQWHVH
PDLVSUHFLVRVQDREWHQomRGRVGDGRVDPELHQWDLVTXHDOLPHQWDPRVPRGHORVQXPpULFRV
'HQWUR GHVVH FRQWH[WR DV UHJL}HV PDLV EHQHILFLDGDV VmR DTXHODV RQGH REVHUYDo}HV
RFHDQRJUiILFDVVmRPHQRVIUHTHQWHVFRPRSRUH[HPSORR2FHDQR$WOkQWLFR6XO
$OpP GLVVR WUDGLFLRQDOPHQWH RV FLHQWLVWDV VHPSUH WLYHUDP TXH OLGDU FRP XPD PDLRU
GHQVLGDGHGHREVHUYDo}HVPHWHRUROyJLFDVFRVWHLUDVHXPDUHODWLYDHVFDVVHVHPUHJL}HV
RFHkQLFDV(PJHUDOREVHUYDo}HVGHYHQWRHPUHJL}HVRFHkQLFDVQmRDSUHVHQWDP QHPD
IUHTXrQFLDHQHPDUHVROXomRHVSDFLDOLGHDOSDUDRXVRHPVLPXODo}HVQXPpULFDV&RPR
IRUPDGHFRQWRUQDUHVVHSUREOHPDDOJXQVDXWRUHVSURSXVHUDPWpFQLFDVGHH[WUDSRODomR
GH GDGRV GH YHQWRV FRVWHLURV SDUD UHJL}HV RFHkQLFDV FRPR SRU H[HPSOR +VX 'DGRV GH YHQWR REWLGRV VHJXQGR D WpFQLFD GH +VX IRUDP XWLOL]DGRV HP YiULRV HVWXGRV
QXPpULFRVUHDOL]DGRVQDVGpFDGDVGHHGRVTXDLVXPH[HPSORGHUHOHYkQFLDpR
HVWXGRUHDOL]DGRQDFRVWDOHVWHGRV(VWDGRV8QLGRVSRU.RXUDIDORX%DVLFDPHQWH
HVWD WpFQLFD FRUUHODFLRQD GDGRV FRVWHLURV FRP REVHUYDo}HV GH YHQWR IHLWDV HP LOKDV
HPEDUFDo}HVRXEyLDVPHWHRUROyJLFDVFRPRLQWXLWRGHREWHUXPDHTXDomRTXHSHUPLWD
RFiOFXORGRYHQWRSDUDDVUHJL}HVGHHVFDVVH]GHGDGRV
1R HQWDQWR HVEDUUDPRV QRYDPHQWH QR SUREOHPD GH PHQRU GLVSRQLELOLGDGH GH GDGRV
RFHkQLFRV DR ODUJR GDV FRVWDV GH SDtVHV GH WHUFHLUR PXQGRSRLVD PDLRU FRQFHQWUDomR
GH EyLDV PHWHRUROyJLFDV H HPEDUFDo}HV RFHDQRJUiILFDV HQFRQWUDVH QRV PDUHV TXH
HVWmR VRE RGRPtQLR GH SDtVHV GR SULPHLUR PXQGR 'DGRV GH YHQWRREWLGRV D SDUWLU GH
UHDQiOLVHV RX D SDUWLU GH VLPXODo}HV JOREDLV FRPR RV REWLGRV SHOR 1&(3 RX (&0:)
FRQVWLWXHPVH QXPD DOWHUQDWLYD jV WpFQLFDV GH H[WUDSRODomR GH GDGRV FRVWHLURV 0DV
HVVHVWDPEpPVmRFRQWDPLQDGRVSHODHVFDVVH]GHGDGRVRFHkQLFRVHPDOJXPDVUHJL}HV
GRJORERSRLVRVPRGHORVQmRSRGHPVHUFDOLEUDGRVQHVVDVUHJL}HV
(VVDVGLILFXOGDGHVSHUVLVWLUDPDWpUHFHQWHPHQWH$VLWXDomRVRPHQWHFRPHoRXDPXGDU
QD GpFDGD GH D SDUWLU GR XVR GH UDGDUHV D ERUGR GH VDWpOLWHV RV TXDLV PHGHP D
UDGLDomR UHWURHVSDOKDGD SHOD VXSHUItFLH GR PDU H XVDPQD SDUD LQIHUrQFLD GRV YHQWRV
VXSHUILFLDLV 'DGRV GH YHQWRV FRP IUHTXrQFLD GLiULD H UHVROXomR HVSDFLDO GH R [ R
WRUQDUDPVHHQWmRGLVSRQtYHLVSDUDSUDWLFDPHQWHWRGDDVXSHUItFLHWHUUHVWUH2VGDGRVGH
UDGDUHV UHYROXFLRQDUDP D DPRVWUDJHP GH IHQ{PHQRV DWPRVIpULFRV GH HVFDOD VLQySWLFD
DXPHQWDQGRVLJQLILFDWLYDPHQWHDTXDOLGDGHGDVVLPXODo}HVQXPpULFDV
2V UHVXOWDGRV DTXL DSUHVHQWDGRV IRUDP REWLGRV HP VLPXODo}HV QXPpULFDV TXH XWLOL]DP
FRPRIRUoDQWHGDGRVGHYHQWRPHGLGRVSRUUDGDU2PRGHORXWLOL]DGRQDVVLPXODo}HVpR
PRGHORRFHkQLFRGD8QLYHUVLGDGHGH3ULQFHWRQRX3ULQFHWRQ2FHDQ0RGHO320
$ iUHD GH HVWXGR p D 3ODWDIRUPD &RQWLQHQWDO 6XO%UDVLOHLUD 3&6% H VXDV DGMDFrQFLDV
HVWHQGHQGRVH GHVGHDODWLWXGHR 6DWpDODWLWXGHR6)LJXUD2GRPtQLRPRGHODGR
p XPD iUHD UHWDQJXODU FRP NP QD GLUHomR SDUDOHOD j FRVWD H NP QD GLUHomR
QRUPDODFRVWD6HJXQGR6RDUHV0|OOHUDGLQkPLFDGHVVDUHJLmRpJRYHUQDGD
EDVLFDPHQWHSRUWUrVIHQ{PHQRV$SUR[LPLGDGHGD&RQIOXrQFLD%UDVLO0DOYLQDV2
LQWHQVRDSRUWHGHiJXDVFRQWLQHQWDLVH8PLQWULFDGRPHFDQLVPRGHLQWHUDomRHQWUHRV
YHQWRVHDViJXDVGHEDL[DVDOLQLGDGHRULJLQDULDVGRVDSRUWHVFRQWLQHQWDLV
'HDFRUGRFRP0|OOHU&DVWDLQJRVYHQWRVQHVVDUHJLmRVmRFDUDFWHUL]DGRVSHOD
GRPLQkQFLD GH HYHQWRV GH QRUGHVWH IDYRUiYHLV j UHVVXUJrQFLD FRVWHLUD QRV PHVHV GH
SULPDYHUDHYHUmRHPDLRUIUHTXrQFLDGHHYHQWRVGHVXGRHVWHIDYRUiYHLVDVXEVLGrQFLD
FRVWHLUD QRV PHVHV GH RXWRQR H LQYHUQR 6RDUHV 0|OOHU REVHUYDUDP D
RFRUUrQFLD GH XP FLFOR DQXDO QD GLVWULEXLomR GDV iJXDV GH EDL[D VDOLQLGDGH QD iUHD GH
HVWXGRRTXDOpUHVXOWDQWHGDFRPELQDomRGDVD]RQDOLGDGHGRVYHQWRVFRPRFLFORDQXDO
GH DSRUWH GH iJXDV FRQWLQHQWDLV (VVH FLFOR p FDUDFWHUL]DGR SRU D PtQLPR DSRUWH GH
iJXDV FRQWLQHQWDLV QR YHUmR TXDQGR RV YHQWRV SUHGRPLQDQWHV VmR GHVIDYRUiYHLV DR
WUDQVSRUWH GDV iJXDV GR 3UDWD HP GLUHomR DR %UDVLO H D /DJRD GRV 3DWRV DSUHVHQWD
YD]mR PtQLPD E DSULVLRQDPHQWR FRVWHLUR GH JUDQGHV YROXPHV GH iJXDV GH RULJHP
FRQWLQHQWDOQRVPHVHVGHRXWRQRHLQYHUQRGHYLGRDFRPELQDomRGHYHQWRVIDYRUiYHLVD
VXEVLGrQFLDFRVWHLUDDOWDYD]mRGR5LRGD3UDWDHYD]mRPRGHUDGDGD/DJRDGRV3DWRV
FHVSDOKDPHQWRGDiJXDGHEDL[DVDOLQLGDGHHPGLUHomRDRFHDQRDEHUWRQRSHUtRGRGH
ILQDO GH LQYHUQR H SULPDYHUD TXDQGR RV YHQWRV SUHGRPLQDQWHV VmR IDYRUiYHLV D
UHVVXUJrQFLDFRVWHLUDHDYD]mRGD/DJRDGRV3DWRVDWLQJHVHXPi[LPRDQXDO
)LJXUDÈUHDGH(VWXGR2UHWkQJXORPDUFDGRQDILJXUDPDLRUFRUUHVSRQGHDRGRPtQLR
PRGHODGR$LVyEDWDGHPHVWiGHVHQKDGDHPOLQKDPDLVJURVVD
3LRODHWDOGHPRQVWURXTXHDVEDQGDVGHEDL[DVDOLQLGDGHFRVWHLUDVGHLQYHUQRH
RXWRQR GD 3&6% VmR QD YHUGDGH D H[WHQVmR QRUWH GH iJXDV GH EDL[D VDOLQLGDGH TXH
RFRUUHP DR ORQJR GH WRGD FRVWD GD $UJHQWLQD H 8UXJXDL $ RULJHP GHVVDV iJXDV HVWi
DVVRFLDGD DR GHJHOR H DSRUWHV FRQWLQHQWDLV TXH RFRUUHP QR VXO GD $UJHQWLQD H DR
GHViJXHGR5LRGD3UDWD
$OJXQVSRXFRVHVWXGRVQXPpULFRVFRQGX]LGRVQD3&6%HVXDVDGMDFrQFLDVOHYDUDPHP
FRQVLGHUDomR D LQWHUDomR GRV YHQWRV FRP RV JUDGLHQWHV KDOLQRV JHUDGRV SRU DSRUWHV
FRQWLQHQWDLV 3HUHLUD GHVHQYROYHX XP PRGHOR VLPSOHV ELGLPHQVLRQDO TXH OHYD
HPFRQVLGHUDomRYHQWRVPpGLRVVD]RQDLVHJUDGLHQWHVGHGHQVLGDGHQDGLUHomRQRUPDOD
FRVWD 2GRPtQLR PRGHODGRIRL D SODWDIRUPD FRQWLQHQWDODR ODUJRGR 5LR *UDQGHGR 6XO
6HXVUHVXOWDGRVPRVWUDPDIRUPDomRGHXPDFRUUHQWHFRVWHLUDGLULJLGDSDUDRQRUWHFXMD
PDLRULQWHQVLGDGHRFRUUHQRVPHVHVGHLQYHUQRPDVTXHSRGHVHUUHYHUWLGDHPFDVRVGH
YHQWRVGHQRUGHVWHLQWHQVRVSUHGRPLQDQWHVQRVPHVHVGHSULPDYHUDHYHUmR
*KLVROIL H 3LPHQWD XWLOL]DUDP R PRGHOR 320 HP XPD UHJLmR EDVWDQWH
VHPHOKDQWH DTXHOD DTXL DERUGDGD (P DPERV RV HVWXGRV DV IRUoDQWHV FRQVLGHUDGDV
IRUDPRGHViJHGR5LRGD3UDWDHRVWUHVV GRYHQWR*KLVROILVLPXORXR5LRGD
3UDWD FRPR XPD IDL[D FRVWHLUD GH DSRUWH GH iJXD GH EDL[D GHQVLGDGH H HVWXGRX D
HYROXomR GD IUHQWH GH GHQVLGDGH VRE D DWXDomR GH YHQWRV FRQVWDQWHV 6HXV UHVXOWDGRV
PRVWUDP XPD IUHQWH GH GHQVLGDGH GLVSRVWD SDUDOHODPHQWH D FRVWD FXMD H[SDQVmR HP
GLUHomR D RFHDQR DEHUWR p FRQWURODGD SHODGLQkPLFD GH (NPDQ QD FDPDGD GH IXQGR2
PHFDQLVPRGHDWXDomRGRWUDQVSRUWHGHIXQGRSURSRVWRSRU*KLVROILpVHPHOKDQWHDTXHOH
SURSRVWR SRU &KDSPDQ /HQW] 3LPHQWD SRU VXD YH] IH] XP HVWXGR GH
FDVRV FRQVLGHUDQGR GLYHUVRV YDORUHV GH YD]mR SDUD R 5LR GD 3UDWD H GLYHUVDV
LQWHQVLGDGHV GH YHQWR (OH FRQFOXLX TXH HP FDVRV GH YD]mR H[WUHPD PV H
YHQWR GH VXGRHVWH PRGHUDGR H FRQVWDQWH PV GXUDQWH GLDV D iJXD GH EDL[D
VDOLQLGDGH RULJLQiULD GR 5LR GD 3UDWD SRGH DWLQJLU D 3ODWDIRUPD &RQWLQHQWDO 6XGHVWH
%UDVLOHLUDQDODWLWXGHGHƒ6
3RU RXWUR ODGR D LPSRUWkQFLD GD &RQIOXrQFLD %UDVLO0DOYLQDV SDUD HVVD UHJLmR SRGH VHU
FRQVWDWDGD D SDUWLU GR HVWXGR UHDOL]DGR SRU 0DWDQR 3KLODQGHU (VVHV DXWRUHV
XVDUDP R PRGHOR GH %U\DQ H &R[ %U\DQ SDUD VLPXODU D FLUFXODomR QR $WOkQWLFR
6XGRHVWH HQWUH DV ODWLWXGHV GH R6 H R6 IRUoDGD SRU YHQWRV PpGLRV FOLPDWROyJLFRV
6HXVUHVXOWDGRVPRVWUDPTXHRWUDQVSRUWHGD&RUUHQWHGR%UDVLORVFLODVD]RQDOPHQWHHP
IXQomR GDV IOXWXDo}HV GH SRVLomR GD &RQIOXrQFLD %UDVLO0DOYLQDV DSUHVHQWDQGR PDLRU
LQWHQVLGDGHQRYHUmRHPHQRUQRLQYHUQR
1R HQWDQWR XP DVSHFWR LPSRUWDQWH D VHU FRQVLGHUDGR QRV HVWXGRV QXPpULFRV
DSUHVHQWDGRV DFLPD p TXH HP QHQKXP GHOHV IRL FRQVLGHUDGD D DWXDomR GH YHQWRV
YDULiYHLV 3RUWDQWR QmR SXGHUDP DERUGDP R HIHLWR GH HYHQWRV GH HVFDOD VLQySWLFD QD
DWPRVIHUD$LPSRUWkQFLDGHVVHVHYHQWRVSDUDDGLQkPLFDGH SODWDIRUPDVFRQWLQHQWDLVGH
PpGLDV ODWLWXGHV Mi IRL GHPRQVWUDGD HP GLYHUVRV HVWXGRV GHQWUH RV TXDLV GHVWDFDPVH
DTXHOHVFRQGX]LGRVQDFRVWDOHVWHGRV(VWDGRV8QLGRVSRU/HHHWDO 2 SUHVHQWH HVWXGR WrP SRU REMHWLYR GHPRQVWUDU D DSOLFDELOLGDGH GRV YHQWRV GH
HVFDWHU{PHWUR QD PRGHODJHP GRV SURFHVVRV PDULQKRV LQGX]LGRV SRU HYHQWRV
DWPRVIpULFRVVLQySWLFRV2VSURFHVVRVDERUGDGRVVmRGRLV$GLQkPLFDGROLPLWHRHVWH
GD &RQIOXrQFLD %UDVLO0DOYLQDV H $ LQWHUDomR GRV YHQWRV FRP DV SOXPDV GR 5LR GD
3UDWD H GD /DJRD GRV 3DWRV FXMD FRQVHTXrQFLD GLUHWD p D LQGXomR GH HVWUDWLILFDomR GH
GHQVLGDGH QDV SODWDIRUPDV LQWHUQDV H PpGLD 2 PRGHOR QXPpULFR H RV GDGRV XWLOL]DGRV
FRPR IRUoDQWHV VmR GHVFULWRV QDV VHo}HV H UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH 2V UHVXOWDGRV
QXPpULFRV VmR DSUHVHQWDGRV QD VHomR H XPD FRPSDUDomR GHVWHV FRP GDGRV
REVHUYDGRV QD UHJLmR H FRP UHVXOWDGRV REWLGRV SRU RXWURV DXWRUHV SDUD UHJL}HV GH
GLQkPLFDVHPHOKDQWHpDSUHVHQWDGDQDVHomR
0HWRGRORJLD
6LPXODo}HV1XPpULFDV
%DVLFDPHQWH D PHWRGRORJLD DTXL HPSUHJDGD p D GH VLPXODU QXPHULFDPHQWH RV
SURFHVVRV HP TXHVWmR H FRPSDUDU RV UHVXOWDGRV QXPpULFRV FRP REVHUYDo}HV
KLGURJUiILFDV H GH VDWpOLWH $ HVFROKD SHOR PRGHOR 320 EDVHLDVH QD VXD YHUVDWLOLGDGH
HP VLPXODU SURFHVVRV FRVWHLURV H RFHkQLFRV VLPXOWDQHDPHQWH e XP PRGHOR WUL
GLPHQVLRQDOTXHWUDEDOKDFRPDVHTXDo}HVSULPLWLYDVGRPRYLPHQWRHXWLOL]DRVLVWHPD
GHFRRUGHQDGDVVLJPDQDGLUHomRYHUWLFDO$FRRUGHQDGDVLJPDSHUPLWHDHODERUDomRGH
FDPDGDV YHUWLFDLV FRP HVSHVVXUD YDULiYHO TXH VH DGHTXDP D WRSRJUDILD ORFDO 7DO
FDUDFWHUtVWLFD SRVVLELOLWD DOWD UHVROXomR YHUWLFDO QDV FDPDGDV GH (NPDQ GH VXSHUItFLH H
IXQGR HP WRGRV RV SRQWRV GR GRPtQLR QmR LPSRUWDQGR TXDO D SURIXQGLGDGH ORFDO (VVH
VLVWHPD p PXLWR YHUViWLO SDUD R HVWXGR GH UHJL}HV TXH DSUHVHQWDP JUDQGHV YDULDo}HV
WRSRJUiILFDV FRPR p R FDVR GD TXHEUD GH SODWDIRUPD $OpP GLVVR R PRGHOR SRVVXL
HPEXWLGR XP VXEPRGHOR SDUD FiOFXOR GH FRHILFLHQWHV YDULiYHLV GH GLIXVmR WXUEXOHQWD
YHUWLFDO FRQKHFLGR FRPR R HVTXHPD GH IHFKDPHQWR WXUEXOHQWR GH 0HOORU <DPDGD
TXH DXPHQWD VXD FDSDFLGDGH GH UHSURGXomR GH FDPDGDV GH FRQWRUQR UHDOLVWDV
0DLRUHV GHWDOKHV VREUH R PRGHOR SRGHP VHU REWLGRV HP 0HOORU H %OXPEHUJ 0HOORU
2 GRPtQLR PRGHODGR DSUHVHQWDVH GHOLPLWDGR QD ILJXUD 8WLOL]RXVH XPD JUDGH
UHWDQJXODU FRP HVSDoDPHQWR GH JUDGH GH NP XQLIRUPH SDUD WRGR R GRPtQLR H QtYHLVYHUWLFDLV$GLVFUHWL]DomRKRUL]RQWDOpGRWLSR$UDNDZD&1RVFRQWRUQRVIHFKDGRV
DSOLFRXVH D FRQGLomR GH FRQWRUQR ³KDOIVOLS´ QD FRPSRQHQWH GD YHORFLGDGH SDUDOHOD DR
FRQWRUQRHQTXDQWRTXHDFRPSRQHQWHQRUPDODRFRQWRUQRIRLDQXODGD1DVXSHUItFLHHQR
IXQGRRVIOX[RVGHFDORUHVDOIRUDPPDQWLGRVQXORVHQTXDQWRTXHRVIOX[RVGHPRPHQWR
IRUDP DMXVWDGRV SDUD R VWUHVV GR YHQWR QD VXSHUItFLH H SDUD OHL TXDGUiWLFD SDGUmR GH
VWUHVVFRPRIXQGR0HOORUQDFDPDGDGHIXQGR1RVFRQWRUQRVDEHUWRVDSOLFRXVH
D FRQGLomR GH FRQWRUQR GH 2UNDQVN\ LPSOtFLWD QDV FRPSRQHQWHV KRUL]RQWDLV GD
YHORFLGDGH WDQWR DV GR PRGR H[WHUQR FRPR DV GR PRGR LQWHUQR D FRQGLomR GH
UHOD[DPHQWR GH 0DUWLQVHQ (QJHUGDKO QD HOHYDomR GR QtYHO H D FRQGLomR GH
%OXPEHUJ.DQWKDQDWHPSHUDWXUDHQDVDOLQLGDGH
'XDVVLPXODo}HVGHGLDVVmRDSUHVHQWDGDVSDUDH[HPSOLILFDURSURFHVVRGHLQWHUDomR
GRYHQWRFRPDVSOXPDVGR3UDWDHGD/DJRDGRV3DWRVXPDFRPSUHHQGHQGRRSHUtRGR
GHSULPDYHUDGHHRXWUDRRXWRQRGH(VVHVSHUtRGRVIRUDPVHOHFLRQDGRVSDUD
H[HPSOLILFDUDGLYHUVLGDGHVD]RQDOGHFRQGLo}HVDPELHQWDLVQD3&6%PDVWDPEpPHP
IXQomR GD GLVSRQLELOLGDGH GH GDGRV KLGURJUiILFRV QD UHJLmR H GRV GDGRV GH YHQWRV
XWLOL]DGRV 4XDQWR D VLPXODomR GD &RQIOXrQFLD %UD]LO0DOYLQDV DSHQDV R SHUtRGR GH
RXWRQRpDSUHVHQWDGR
6LPXODo}HVGDVSOXPDV
2 SURFHVVR GH LQWHUHVVH QHVVDV VLPXODo}HV p D UHVSRVWD GH iJXDV GH SODWDIRUPD
HVWUDWLILFDGDVDRVWUHVVGHYHQWRVYDULiYHLV$HVWUDWLILFDomRpSURGX]LGDSHORVGHVDJXHV
GR 5LR GD 3UDWD H GD /DJRD GRV 3DWRV 2V VHJXLQWHV YDORUHV PpGLRV VD]RQDLV IRUDP
XWLOL]DGRV PñV H PñV SDUD R 5LR GD 3UDWD H D /DJRD GRV 3DWRV
UHVSHFWLYDPHQWHQDSULPDYHUDHPñVHPñVUHVSHFWLYDPHQWHQRSHUtRGR
GH RXWRQR IRQWHV )UDPLQDQ HW DO H 0ROOHU &DVWDLQJ (VVHV YDORUHV
IRUDP PDQWLGRV FRQVWDQWHV GXUDQWH WRGR R SHUtRGR GH GLDV (P DPERV RV
H[SHULPHQWRV DV IURQWHLUDV DEHUWDV GR GRPtQLR VmR IRUFDGDV FRP DV SULQFLSDLV
FRPSRQHQWHVGHPDUpFXMDVDPSOLWXGHHIDVHIRUDPREWLGDVGHVLPXODo}HVJOREDLVFRPR
PRGHOR )(6 GH *UHQREOH 2 IOX[R GH PRPHQWR QD VXSHUItFLH p GHWHUPLQDGR SHOR
VWUHVVGRYHQWRFXMRVYDORUHVVmRDTXHOHVPHGLGRVSRUHVFDWHURPHWUR$SHVDUGRVGDGRV
GH HVFDWHU{PHWUR HVWDUHP GLVSRQtYHLV FRP XPD IUHTXrQFLD GH GRLV GLDV HOHV IRUDP
LQWHUSRODGRVSDUDFDGDSDVVRGHWHPSRGRPRGHOR
$V FRQGLo}HV LQLFLDLV SDUD HVVHV H[SHULPHQWRV VmR XP RFHDQR HP UHSRXVR FRP
VDOLQLGDGHXQLIRUPHGHXSVHXPFDPSRGHWHPSHUDWXUDTXHDSUHVHQWDXPGHFDLPHQWR
H[SRQHQFLDOFRPDSURIXQGLGDGH$VFRQGLo}HVGHIURQWHLUDVDEHUWDVVmRWDLVTXHDFDGD
SDVVR GH WHPSR DV YHORFLGDGHV KRUL]RQWDLV VmR UDGLDGDV SHOD FRQGLomR GH 2UODQVN\ D
HOHYDomR GD VXSHUILFLH p UHOD[DGD SDUD D PDUp RV FDPSRV GH WHPSHUDWXUD H VDOLQLGDGH
VmRDMXVWDGRVSHODFRQGLomRGH%OXPEHUJH.DQWKDTXHXWLOL]DFRPRYDORUHVGHIURQWHLUD
RV YDORUHV LQLFLDLV GHVVHV FDPSRV SDUD VDOLQLGDGH H R SHUILO H[SRQHQFLDO SDUD
WHPSHUDWXUD
6LPXODomRGD&RQIOXrQFLD
1HVVD VLPXODomR R PRGHOR p IRUoDGR FRP RV PHVPRV YHQWRV GH HVFDWHURPHWUR GD
VLPXODomR GR SHUtRGR GH RXWRQR GR LWHP DQWHULRU SRUpP RV FDPSRV XWLOL]DGRV QDV
FRQGLo}HV LQLFLDLV H FRQGLo}HV GH FRQWRUQRV DEHUWRV VmR RXWURV $V FRQGLo}HV LQLFLDLV
XWLOL]DP PHGLDV FOLPDWROyJLFDV GH VDOLQLGDGH H WHPSHUDWXUD H XP FDPSR PpGLR GH
HOHYDomR GD VXSHUItFLH GR PDU PHGLGR SRU DOWtPHWUR $V FRQGLo}HV DSOLFDGDV QDV
IURQWHLUDVDEHUWDVFRQWLQXDPUDGLDQGRDVYHORFLGDGHVSRUHPDHOHYDomRGHVXSHUItFLHp
DJRUD UHOD[DGD SDUD XPD FRPELQDomR GD PDUp FRP YDORUHV PpGLRV PHGLGRV SRU
DOWtPHWUR HQTXDQWR TXH D FRQGLomR GH %OXPEHUJ H .DQWKD ID] R DMXVWH GRV FDPSRV GH
VDOLQLGDGHHWHPSHUDWXUDSDUDDVPpGLDVFOLPDWROyJLFDV
)RUoDQWHV9DORUHV,QLFLDLVH9DORUHVGH&RQWRUQRV$EHUWRV
9HQWR
2VGDGRVGHYHQWRXWLOL]DGRVFRPRIRUoDQWHHPWRGDVDVVLPXODo}HVIRUDPREWLGRVSHOR
HVFDWHU{PHWUR GD DJrQFLD HVSDFLDO DPHULFDQD 1$6$ FRQKHFLGR SRU 16&$7 1$6$
6&$7HURPHWHU D ERUGR GR VDWpOLWH $'(26 GD DJrQFLD HVSDFLDO MDSRQHVD 1$6'$ $
PLVVmR GR $'(26 FRPHoRX HP GH DJRVWR GH VHQGR SUHPDWXUDPHQWH
LQWHUURPSLGDHPGHMXQKRGHGHYLGRDXPDIDOKDGHIXQFLRQDPHQWRGRVDWpOLWH
%DVLFDPHQWH RV VHQVRUHV GR WLSR HVFDWHU{PHWUR VmR UDGDUHV TXH XWLOL]DP R HIHLWR
'RSSOHU SDUD GHWHUPLQDomR GDV SHTXHQDV RQGDV VXSHUILFLDLV JHUDGDV SRU YHQWR FRP
DPSOLWXGH GD RUGHP GH FHQWtPHWURV &RPR R HIHLWR 'RSSOHU DOWHUD D IUHTXrQFLD GD
UDGLDomR HPLWLGD SHOR UDGDU GH PRGR GLIHUHQWH FDVR R DOYR D RQGD HVWHMD VH
DSUR[LPDQGRRXVHDIDVWDQGRGRVHQVRUpSRVVtYHOGHWHUPLQDUQmRDSHQDVDDPSOLWXGH
GDV RQGDV PDV WDPEpP VXD GLUHomR GH SURSDJDomR 'HVVD IRUPD D GLUHomR H
LQWHQVLGDGH GRV YHQWRV VXSHUILFLDLV VmR LQIHULGDV D SDUWLU GD DPSOLWXGH H GLUHomR GDV
RQGDV 2 VDWpOLWH $'(26 DSUHVHQWD FREHUWXUD GH DSUR[LPDGDPHQWH GD VXSHUItFLH
WHUUHVWUH DSHVDU GRV GDGRV GH YHQWRV HVWDUHP GLVSRQtYHLV DSHQDV SDUD DV iUHDV
RFHkQLFDVDWpFQLFDQmRSHUPLWHDPHGLGDGRUHWURHVSDOKDPHQWRVREUHRVFRQWLQHQWHV
2VGDGRV16&$7DTXLXWLOL]DGRVIRUDPWUDWDGRVQRODERUDWyULR-3/32'$$&GHIRUPDD
SUHHQFKHUDViUHDVFRQWLQHQWDLVFRPGDGRVGD(&0:)HLQWHUSRODGRVSDUDXPDJUDGH
FRPUHVROXomRHVSDFLDOGHR [R$WpFQLFDGHLQWHUSRODomRXWLOL]DXPDMDQHOD*DXVVLDQD
TXH SUHVHUYD R FRQWH~GR HQHUJpWLFR QD IDL[D GH IUHTXrQFLD FRUUHVSRQGHQWH D RQGDV
FXUWDV 2V GDGRV LQWHUSRODGRV VmR GLVSRQLELOL]DGRV FRP IUHTXrQFLD GH GLDV 0DLRUHV
GHWDOKHVSRGHPVHUREWLGRVQDSDJLQDKWWSSRGDDFMSOQDVDJRY
$VILJXUDVH DSUHVHQWDPVpULHVWHPSRUDLVGRVYHWRUHVGHYHQWRPHGLGRVSHOR16&$7
QRVSHUtRGRVGHSULPDYHUDHRXWRQRUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH(PFDGDILJXUDVmRDSUHVHQWDGDV
VpULHV FRUUHVSRQGHQWHV D SRQWRV GLVWLQWRV GR GRPtQLR 2V SRQWRV VHOHFLRQDGRV VmR
SRQWRVQDSODWDIRUPDPpGLDFXMDVODWLWXGHVHVWmRLQGLFDGDVQDVILJXUDV
3DUDYDOLGDomRGRVGDGRV16&$7HVVHVVmRFRPSDUDGRVDRVGDGRVGHYHQWRPHGLGRV
QDHVWDomRPHWHRUROyJLFDGD)85*GXUDQWHRSHUtRGRGHRXWRQRGHRVTXDLVVmR
DSUHVHQWDGRVQDILJXUD&RPH[FHomRGHDOJXQVSRXFRVHYHQWRVQRWDVHXPDJUDQGH
VHPHOKDQoDHQWUHDVpULHGHGDGRVPHGLGDQD)85*HDVVpULHV16&$7SULQFLSDOPHQWH
DTXHODVPHGLGDVQDVODWLWXGHVHGDILJXUDDVTXDLVHVWmRPDLVSUy[LPDVGD
HVWDomR GD )85* $V GLIHUHQoDV HQWUH DV VpULHV VmR DWULEXtGDV DR IDWR GRV GDGRV GD
)85*WHUHPVLGRPHGLGRVHPWHUUDHQTXDQWRTXHRVGDGRV16&$7IRUDPPHGLGRVHP
RFHDQRDEHUWR
)LJXUD6pULHVWHPSRUDLVGRYHQWR16&$7FRUUHVSRQGHQWHVDRSHUtRGR GHSULPDYHUD
)LJXUD6pULHVWHPSRUDLVGRYHQWR16&$7FRUUHVSRQGHQWHVDRSHUtRGRGHRXWRQR
)LJXUD'DGRVGHYHQWRVPHGLGRVQDHVWDomRPHWHRUROyJLFDGD)85*GXUDQWHRRXWRQR
GH
(OHYDomRGD6XSHUItFLHGR0DU7HPSHUDWXUDH6DOLQLGDGH
$V VLPXODo}HV GD &RQIOXrQFLD XWLOL]DP FRPR FRQGLomR LQLFLDO GLVWULEXLo}HV JOREDLV
UHDOLVWDVGHVDOLQLGDGHWHPSHUDWXUDHHOHYDomRGRQtYHOGRPDU2VFDPSRVGHVDOLQLGDGH
HWHPSHUDWXUDIRUDPREWLGRVQREDQFRGHGDGRVJOREDLV/HYLWXVYHUVmR2VGDGRV
GH HOHYDomR GD VXSHUItFLH VmR PpGLDV GH DQRV GRV GDGRV GR DOWtPHWUR
723(;3RVHLGRQTXHIRUDPLQWHUSRODGRVSDUDXPDJUDGHJOREDOFRPUHVROXomRHVSDFLDO
GHR [R
'DGRVGH6DOLQLGDGHH7HPSHUDWXUD$PRVWUDGRVQD5HJLmRGH(VWXGR
(P WHUPRV GH REVHUYDo}HV KLGURJUiILFDV XPD GLVWLQomR EiVLFD p IHLWD HQWUH RV GRLV
SURFHVVRVDTXLHVWXGDGRVD&RQIOXrQFLD%UDVLO0DOYLQDVpPHOKRUUHSUHVHQWDGDDWUDYpV
GH VHX VLQDO GH WHPSHUDWXUD VXSHUILFLDO HQTXDQWR TXH DV SOXPDV GRV ULRV VmR PHOKRU
UHSUHVHQWDGDV DWUDYpV GD VDOLQLGDGH VXSHUILFLDO 3RU HVWD UD]mR D FRPSDUDomR HQWUH
REVHUYDo}HVHUHVXOWDGRVQXPpULFRVpIHLWDHPWHUPRVGHWHPSHUDWXUDVXSHUILFLDOSDUDD
VLPXODomRGD&RQIOXrQFLDHHPWHUPRVGHVDOLQLGDGHVXSHUILFLDOSDUDDVVLPXODo}HVGDV
SOXPDVGRVULRV
2V GDGRV GH WHPSHUDWXUD VXSHUILFLDO DTXL GHVFULWRV IRUDP REWLGRV SHOR VHQVRU $9+55
DERUGRGRVVDWpOLWHV12$$(VVHVGDGRVIRUDPLQWHUSRODGRVQRWHPSRHQRHVSDoRSDUD
D UHPRomR GH FRQWDPLQDomR SRU QXYHQV QR /DERUDWyULR GH 6HQVRULDPHQWR 5HPRWR GD
8QLYHUVLGDGH GH 0LDPL 2 SURGXWR ILQDO GHVVH SURFHVVDPHQWR VmR LPDJHQV FRP
UHVROXomRHVSDFLDOGHNP2FDPSRGHWHPSHUDWXUDVXSHUILFLDOFRUUHVSRQGHQWHDRGLD
GH MXQKR GH p DSUHVHQWDGR QD ILJXUD $V IHLo}HV PDLV HVFXUDV QHVVD ILJXUD
UHSUHVHQWDP iJXDV PDLV IULDV WUDQVSRUWDGDV SHOD &RUUHQWH GDV 0DOYLQDV ÈJXD 6XE
$QWiUWLFD HQTXDQWR TXH DV IHLo}HV PDLV FODUDV UHSUHVHQWDP DV iJXDV TXHQWHV GD
&RUUHQWH GR %UDVLO ÈJXD 7URSLFDO 1RWDVH TXH DSHVDU GR Q~FOHR GD &RUUHQWH GDV
0DOYLQDVSHUPDQHFHUQDTXHEUDGD SODWDIRUPDFRQWLQHQWDOUHSUHVHQWDGDSHODOLQKDFKHLD
QD ILJXUD XPD SDUWH GHVWD SHQHWUD HP GLUHomR DR QRUWH IRUPDQGR XPD OtQJXD GH
iJXDVIULDVVREUHDSODWDIRUPDFRQWLQHQWDO
)LJXUD7HPSHUDWXUD6XSHUILFLDOGR0DUPHGLGDSHOR$9+55QRRXWRQRGH $iUHD
PRGHODGDHDLVyEDWDGHPDSDUHFHPGHOLQHDGDVHPEUDQFR
,QIHOL]PHQWH DV WpFQLFDV GH PHGLomR GH SURSULHGDGHV GD iJXD GR PDU SRU VDWpOLWH QmR
QRV SHUPLWHP DLQGD LQIHULU D VDOLQLGDGH GD iJXD GR PDU 3RU HVVD UD]mR RV GDGRV GH
VDOLQLGDGHDTXLDSUHVHQWDGRVVmRDTXHOHVFROHWDGRVHPFUX]HLURVKLGURJUiILFRV2VGRLV
FUX]HLURVTXHPHOKRUDPRVWUDUDPDUHJLmRGHHVWXGRVmRDVH[SHGLo}HVRFHDQRJUiILFDV
FRQGX]LGDV SHOD 0DULQKD %UDVLOHLUD GXUDQWH D SULPDYHUD GH H R RXWRQR GH FRQKHFLGDV FRPR 2SHUDo}HV &RQYHUVXW , H &RQYHUVXW ,, 2V YDORUHV GH VDOLQLGDGH
DPRVWUDGRVQRQtYHOGHPHWURVGXUDQWHHVVDVH[SHGLo}HVVmRDSUHVHQWDGRVQDILJXUDV
DHE2VYDORUHVGHSULPDYHUDDSDUHFHPQRSDLQHOVXSHULRUGDILJXUDHRVGHRXWRQR
QRSDLQHOLQIHULRU
$SHVDUGRWHPSRGHUHDOL]DomRGHFDGDH[SHGLomRVHUEDVWDQWHORQJRDSUR[LPDGDPHQWH
GRLV PHVHV FRPSURPHWHQGR D VLQRSWLFLGDGH GD DPRVWUDJHP RV GDGRV GH VDOLQLGDGH
GHQXQFLDP D H[LVWrQFLD GH XP SDGUmR GH VD]RQDOLGDGH TXH p REVHUYDGR HP RXWUDV
SODWDIRUPDVFRQWLQHQWDLVGHGLQkPLFDVHPHOKDQWHYHUDGLVFXVVmRQRLWHP
(VVH SDGUmR p FDUDFWHUL]DGR SHOR DSULVLRQDPHQWR GDV iJXDV GH GHVFDUJD IOXYLDO HP
UHJL}HV FRVWHLUDV GXUDQWH RV PHVHV GH RXWRQR TXDQGR R YHQWR SUHGRPLQDQWH p GH
VXGRHVWH H SRUWDQWR IDYRUiYHO D VXEVLGrQFLD FRVWHLUD H HVSDOKDPHQWR GDV PHVPDV HP
GLUHomR DR ODUJR QRV PHVHV GH SULPDYHUD TXDQGR RV YHQWRV GH QRUGHVWH IDYRUHFHP D
RFRUUrQFLD GH UHVVXUJrQFLD FRVWHLUD 2V UHVXOWDGRV QXPpULFRV DSUHVHQWDGRV D VHJXLU
UHSURGX]HPDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVJHUDLVGRVGDGRVDTXLDSUHVHQWDGRV
)LJXUDD± 6DOLQLGDGHQRQtYHOGHP&219(5687,± SULPDYHUD
)LJXUDE± 6DOLQLGDGHQRQtYHOGHP&219(5687,,± RXWRQRGH
5HVXOWDGRV
6LPXODomRGD&RQIOXrQFLD%UDVLO0DOYLQDV
$WHPSHUDWXUDVXSHUILFLDOGRPDUFRUUHVSRQGHQWHDRGLDGDVLPXODomRGD&RQIOXrQFLD
pDSUHVHQWDGDQDILJXUD$SDOHWDGHQtYHLVGHFLQ]DXWLOL]DGDQHVVDILJXUDpVHPHOKDQWH
DTXHOD GD ILJXUD FRP WRQV HVFXURV UHSUHVHQWDQGR iJXDV IULDV H WRQV FODURV
UHSUHVHQWDQGR iJXDV TXHQWHV 2 SDGUmR REVHUYDGR QHVVD ILJXUD p H[WUHPDPHQWH
VHPHOKDQWH DTXHOH REVHUYDGR QD LPDJHP È+55 GD ILJXUD UHVJXDUGDGDV DV GHYLGDV
SURSRUo}HVGDVGXDVILJXUDV(VVHSDGUmRDSUHVHQWDDSHQHWUDomRGHiJXDVIULDVÈJXD
6XE$QWiUWLFDSHORFRQWRUQRVXOGRGRPtQLRPRGHODGRHiJXDVTXHQWHVÈJXD7URSLFDO
SHORFRQWRUQRQRUWH
)LJXUD± 7HPSHUDWXUD6XSHUILFLDOGR0DU± GLDGDVLPXODomRFRPRYHQWR16&$7
$LQWHUDomRGRYHQWRFRPDVSOXPDVGR5LRGD3UDWDHGD/DJRDGRV
3DWRV
$SHQDV RV PDSDV GH VDOLQLGDGH VXSHUILFLDO FRUUHVSRQGHQWHV DR ~OWLPR GLD GH FDGD
H[SHULPHQWR GH GLDV IRUDP FRQVLGHUDGRV 2 PDSD GH VDOLQLGDGH GR SHUtRGR GH
SULPDYHUD p DSUHVHQWDGR QD ILJXUD D H R GH RXWRQR QD ILJXUD E 2V GDGRV
DSUHVHQWDGRV VmR PpGLDV GH KRUDV FRUUHVSRQGHQWHV jV XOWLPDV KRUDV GH FDGD
H[SHULPHQWR (VVH SURFHGLPHQWR IRL DGRWDGR SDUD HOLPLQDU R HIHLWR GH YDULDo}HV
LQGX]LGDVSHODPDUp
1RWDVHTXHDRILQDOGRSHUtRGRGHSULPDYHUDDSOXPDGD/DJRDGRV3DWRVDSUHVHQWDVH
GHVORFDGD SDUD R VXO GD GHVHPERFDGXUD GD /DJRD FRP JUDQGH HVSDOKDPHQWR HP
GLUHomRDRFHDQRDEHUWRHQTXDQWRDSOXPDGR5LRGD3UDWDDSUHVHQWDXPJUDQGHEXOER
HPVXDUHJLmRFHQWUDOHSHTXHQDSHQHWUDomRFRVWHLUDHPGLUHomRDRQRUWH3RURXWURODGR
D FRQILJXUDomR DWLQJLGD DRILQDO GR SHUtRGRGH RXWRQR DSUHVHQWDDPEDV DV SOXPDV FRP
PHQRU HVSDOKDPHQWRHPGLUHomR D RFHDQRDEHUWR $ SOXPD GR 5LR GD 3UDWDGRSHUtRGR
GH RXWRQR DSUHVHQWDVH FRODGD D PDUJHP QRUWH GR ULR FRP JUDQGH SHQHWUDomR HP
GLUHomRD3&6%
)LJXUDD± 6DOLQLGDGH6XSHUILFLDO± GLDGDVLPXODomRFRPYHQWR16&$7± SHUtRGRGH
SULPDYHUD
)LJXUDE± 6DOLQLGDGH6XSHUILFLDO± GLDGDVLPXODomRFRPYHQWR16&$7± SHUtRGRGH
RXWRQR
'LVFXVVmR
&RQIOXrQFLD
2 SDGUmR REVHUYDGR QR FDPSR GH WHPSHUDWXUD GR GLD GD VLPXODomR QXPpULFD
DSUHVHQWDGR QDILJXUD p EDVWDQWH VHPHOKDQWH DTXHOH REVHUYDGR QD LPDJHP $9+55
GDILJXUD$OLQKDGHFRQYHUJrQFLDGDVGXDVFRUUHQWHVDTXDOSRGHVHUGHILQLGDFRPRD
UHJLmRGHPi[LPRJUDGLHQWHGHWHPSHUDWXUDFUX]DROLPLWHOHVWHGRGRPtQLRPRGHODGRHP
DSUR[LPDGDPHQWH6(VVDORFDOL]DomRGD&RQIOXrQFLD%UDVLO0DOYLQDVHVWiGHDFRUGR
FRPDORFDOL]DomRVXJHULGDSRU2OVRQHWDORTXDOFLWDDIDL[DGHODWLWXGH66
SDUDD&RQIOXrQFLD
2V UHVXOWDGRV DTXL DSUHVHQWDGRV GHPRQVWUDP TXH D XWLOL]DomR GH GDGRV GH YHQWR FRP
YDULDELOLGDGH VLQySWLFD p HVVHQFLDO SDUD D VLPXODomR DGHTXDGD GHVVH IHQ{PHQR FRP
WRGDV DV VXDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV 8PD GDV IHLo}HV GH PHVR HVFDOD DVVRFLDGDV D HVVH
IHQ{PHQR p D SHQHWUDomR GD ÈJXD 6XE$QWiUWLFD VREUH D SODWDIRUPD FRQWLQHQWDO D TXDO
DSDUHFHQDVILJXUDVHFRPRXPDOtQJXDGHiJXDIULDFUX]DQGRDLVyEDWDGHPQD
ODWLWXGH DSUR[LPDGD GH 6 RX VHMD DR QRUWH GD &RQIOXrQFLD 5HVXOWDGRV REWLGRV HP
VLPXODo}HV FRP FDPSRV GH YHQWR FRQVWDQWH QmR DSUHVHQWDGRV QmR DSUHVHQWDP D
ULTXH]DGHGHWDOKHVGHVVHIHQ{PHQR
$VUD]}HVSHODVTXDLVHVVHSURFHVVRVySRGHVHUUHSUHVHQWDGRFRPILGHOLGDGHDWUDYpVGR
XVR GH YHQWRV FRP YDULDELOLGDGH VLQySWLFD HVWmR OLJDGDV DR FRPSRUWDPHQWR GD &RUUHQWH
GR%UDVLOQDV LPHGLDo}HVGD&RQIOXrQFLD$WRSRJUDILDQDTXHEUDGHSODWDIRUPDHPIUHQWH
DRHVWDGRGR5LR*UDQGHGR6XODSUHVHQWDXPDIHLomRTXHIRUoDD&RUUHQWHGR%UDVLOD
GHVORFDUVHHPGLUHomRDRFHDQRDEHUWR(VVDIHLomRpRGHOWDGHGHSRVLWRGHVHGLPHQWRV
GD/DJRD GRV 3DWRVTXH DSDUHFH QDILJXUD FRPR XPD SURWXEHUkQFLDGDV LVyEDWDVQD
DOWXUD GD ODWLWXGH ƒ6 $SyV SDVVDU SRU HVVD IHLomR WRSRJUiILFD H VHU GHIOHWLGD SDUD
RFHDQRDEHUWRD&RUUHQWHGR%UDVLOWHQGHDUHFXSHUDUVXDWUDMHWyULDDRORQJRGDTXHEUD
GH SODWDIRUPD IRUPDQGR XP PHDQGUR 2 PHDQGUR WHQGH D HYROXLU SDUD XP YyUWLFH
FLFO{QLFR TXH IDYRUHFH D SHQHWUDomR GD iJXD GD &RUUHQWH GDV 0DOYLQDV VREUH D
SODWDIRUPD FRQWLQHQWDO 6RDUHV 2V FDPSRV GH WHPSHUDWXUD DSUHVHQWDGRV QDV
ILJXUDHPRVWUDPHVWiJLRVSRVWHULRUHVGHVVDPHVPDVLPXODomRQRTXDODIRUPDomR
GR YyUWLFH FLFO{QLFR DSUHVHQWDVH HP HVWiJLR PDLV DYDQoDGR (VVH SURFHVVR p
VHPHOKDQWHDRVYyUWLFHVFLFO{QLFRVLQGX]LGRVQD&RUUHQWHGR*ROIRSHODIHLomRWRSRJUiILFD
FRQKHFLGD FRPR ³&KDUOHVWRQ EXPS´ YHU /HH HW DO 6HJXQGR HVVHV DXWRUHV D
GLQkPLFD GHVVH SURFHVVR HVWD OLJDGD DV YDULDo}HV VLQySWLFDV GR YHQWR DV TXDLV
DSUHVHQWDPSHUtRGRHPWRUQRGHGLDV
)LJXUD± 7HPSHUDWXUD6XSHUILFLDO± GLDGDVLPXODomRFRPYHQWR16&$7± SHUtRGR GH
RXWRQR
)LJXUD± 7HPSHUDWXUD6XSHUILFLDO± GLDGDVLPXODomRFRPYHQWR16&$7± SHUtRGR
GHRXWRQR
3OXPDV
2VUHVXOWDGRVREWLGRVQDVVLPXODo}HVGDGLQkPLFDGDVSOXPDVGD/DJRDGRV3DWRVHGR
5LR GD 3UDWD HVWmR GH DFRUGR FRP DTXHOHV REWLGRV SRU .RXUDIDORX SDUD D 6RXWK
$WODQWLF %LJKW D TXDO DSUHVHQWD GLQkPLFD EDVWDQWH VHPHOKDQWH D GD 3&6% 6HJXQGR
.RXUDIDORX D GLQkPLFD GDV iJXDV GH EDL[D VDOLQLGDGH QD SODWDIRUPD LQWHUQD GD
6RXWK $WODQWLF %LJKW p WDO TXH GXUDQWH D SULPDYHUD H YHUmR HVWDV VmR UHPRYLGDV HP
GLUHomR D RFHDQR DEHUWR GHYLGR D SUHGRPLQkQFLD GH YHQWRV IDYRUiYHLV D UHVVXUJrQFLD
FRVWHLUD VHQGR TXH GXUDQWH R RXWRQR H R LQYHUQR RFRUUH XP DSULVLRQDPHQWR FRVWHLUR
GHVVDViJXDVGHYLGRDSUHGRPLQkQFLDGHYHQWRVIDYRUiYHLVDVXEVLGrQFLDFRVWHLUD(VVD
VD]RQDOLGDGH QD GLVWULEXLomR GDV iJXDV GH EDL[D VDOLQLGDGH SRGH VHU FRQVWDWDGD QRV
UHVXOWDGRV GRV H[SHULPHQWRV DSUHVHQWDGRV QR LWHP GHVVH DUWLJR YHU ILJXUD H
WDPEpPQRVGDGRVKLGURJUiILFRVGDVRSHUDo}HV&RQYHUVXW,H,,ILJXUD
1R HQWDQWR p LPSRUWDQWH UHVVDOWDU TXH DSHVDU GRV YHQWRV PpGLRV VD]RQDLV GH PpGLDV
ODWLWXGHV DSUHVHQWDUHP XPD GLUHomR SUHIHUHQFLDO HVVHV DSUHVHQWDP XPD FRQWtQXD H
IUHTXHQWH UHYHUVmR GH GLUHomR FDXVDGD SHOD SDVVDJHP GH IUHQWHV IULDV (P RXWUDV
SDODYUDVHYHQWRVGHYHQWRVGHVXGRHVWHHQRUGHVWHHVWmRFRQWLQXDPHQWHVHUHYH]DQGR
FRPPDLRURXPHQRUIUHTXHQFLDGHSHQGHQGRGDHVWDomRGRDQR$FRQVHTXrQFLDGHVVH
IHQ{PHQR SDUD D GLQkPLFD GDV SOXPDV GRV ULRV p TXH R HVSDOKDPHQWR GDV iJXDV GH
EDL[D VDOLQLGDGH WDQWR QD GLUHomR SDUDOHOD D FRVWD FRPR QD GLUHomR QRUPDO D FRVWD p
EDVWDQWHGLIHUHQWHTXDQGRVHFRQVLGHUDDVYDULDo}HVVLQySWLFDVGRYHQWRHPFRPSDUDomR
D VLPXODo}HV TXH FRQVLGHUDP YHQWRV FRQVWDQWHV 2V UHVXOWDGRV REWLGRV SRU 3LPHQWD
H*KLVROILVREDDWXDomRGHYHQWRVGHVXGRHVWHPRGHUDGRVHFRQVWDQWHV
PRVWUDPDSOXPDGR5LRGD3UDWDFRPXPFRQILQDPHQWRFRVWHLURHXPDSHQHWUDomRQRUWH
PXLWRPDLRUGRTXHDTXHOHVDTXLDSUHVHQWDGRV
&RQFOXV}HV
8PDGDV FRQFOXV}HVGH UHOHYkQFLDGRSUHVHQWHHVWXGRpTXHDSUHYLVmRGRVSURFHVVRV
GHPHVRHVFDODGDSODWDIRUPDFRQWLQHQWDOGHSHQGHIRUWHPHQWHGDXWLOL]DomRGHIRUoDQWHV
DGHTXDGDV 2V UHVXOWDGRV GDV VLPXODo}HV GD &RQIOXrQFLD PRVWUDP TXH R SURFHVVR GH
SHQHWUDomR GD ÈJXD 6XE$QWiUWLFD VREUH D 3&6% HVWi OLJDGR D SURFHVVRV GH PHVR
HVFDODGD&RUUHQWHGR%UDVLORVTXDLVVySRGHPVHUEHPUHSUHVHQWDGRVDWUDYpVGRXVR
GH GDGRV GH YHQWR FRP YDULDELOLGDGH VLQySWLFD (VVH SURFHVVR SUHFLVD GH PDLRUHV
LQYHVWLJDo}HVSDUDVHUHOXFLGDGRVHQGRDOYRGHXPSURMHWRGHSHVTXLVDDWXDOPHQWHHP
GHVHQYROYLPHQWR QR /2&),6 GD )85* 0DLRUHV FRQFOXV}HV SRGHUmR VHU REWLGDV FRP R
DQGDPHQWRGDSHVTXLVD1RHQWDQWRRVUHVXOWDGRVDWXDLVVXJHUHPDLPSRUWkQFLDGRXVR
GHGDGRVGHYHQWRUHDOLVWDVQDVLPXODomRGHVVHIHQ{PHQR
4XDQWR D VLPXODomR GDV SOXPDV UHVVDOWDVH WDPEpP D LPSRUWkQFLD GR XVR GH YHQWRV
UHDOLVWDV 2V UHVXOWDGRV DTXL DSUHVHQWDGRV PRVWUDP D LPSRUWkQFLD GD YDULDELOLGDGH GH
HVFDOD VLQySWLFDGR YHQWR SDUD DGLVSHUVmRGDV iJXDV FRVWHLUDVGH EDL[D VDOLQLGDGH$V
FRUUHQWHV FRVWHLUDV TXH ID]HP R HVSDOKDPHQWR GHVVDV iJXDV HVWmR FRQWLQXDPHQWH VH
UHYHUWHQGRHPIXQomRGDVYDULDo}HVGHYHQWRFDXVDGDSHODSDVVDJHPGDVIUHQWHVIULDV
8P H[SHULPHQWR QXPpULFR GLUHFLRQDGR SDUD D LQYHVWLJDomR GHVVH H GH TXDOTXHU RXWUR
IHQ{PHQRFRVWHLURGHYHOHYDUHPFRQVLGHUDomRHVVDVUHYHUV}HV
5HIHUrQFLDV%LEOLRJUiILFDV
%OXPEHUJ$.KDQWD/2SHQERXQGDU\FRQGLWLRQVIRUFLUFXODWLRQPRGHOV-RXUQDO
RI+\GUDXOLFV(QJLQHHULQJ
%OXPEHUJ $ 0HOORU * $ GHVFULSWLRQ RI D WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO FRDVWDO RFHDQ
FLUFXODWLRQPRGHO,Q+HDSV1(G7KUHHGLPHQVLRQDOFRDVWDORFHDQPRGHOVYRO
FK$PHULFDQ*HRSK\VLFDO8QLRQ
%U\DQ . $ QXPHULFDO PHWKRG IRU WKH VWXG\ RI WKH FLUFXODWLRQ RI WKH ZRUOG RFHDQ
-RXUQDORI&RPSXWDWLRQDO3K\VLFV
&KDSPDQ ' & /HQW] 6 7UDSSLQJ RI D FRDVWDO GHQVLW\ IURQW E\ WKH ERWWRP
ERXQGDU\OD\HU-RXUQDORI3K\VLFDO2FHDQRJUDSK\
)UDPLQDQ 0 (WDOD 0 $FKD ( *XHUUHUR 5 /DVWD & %URZQ 2 3K\VLFDO
2FHDQRJUDSK\DQG3URFHVHVRIWKH5LRGH/D3ODWD(VWXDU\,Q3HULOOR*3LFFROR0
& 3LQR4XLYLUD 0 (GV (VWXDULHV RI 6RXWK $PHULFD 1HZ <RUN 6SULQJHU
9HUODJ
*KLVROIL 5 2FHDQLF IURQWV RII WKH VRXWKHUQ %UD]LOLDQ FRDVW 6FKRRO RI
0DWKHPDWLFV8QLYHUVLGDGHGH6RXWK:DOHV$XVWUDOLD7HVHGHGRXWRUDGRS
+VX 6 $ 0RGHOV IRU HVWLPDWLQJ RIIVKRUH ZLQGV IURP RQVKRUH PHWHRURORJLFDO
PHDVXUHPHQWV%RXQGDU\/D\HU0HWHRURORJ\
.RXUDIDORX9&RQWLQHQWDOVKHOIUHVSRQVHWRIUHVKZDWHULQSXWIURPULYHUVD '
PRGHO VWXG\ DQG DSSOLFDWLRQV 5RVHQVWLHO 6FKRRO RI 0DULQH DQG $WPRVSKHULF
6FLHQFH8QLYHUVLGDGHGH0LDPL0LDPL(VWDGRV8QLGRV7HVHGH'RXWRUDGRS
/HH7.RXUDIDORX9:DQJ-+R:%ODQWRQ-$WNLQVRQ/3LHWUDIHVD/6KHOI
&LUFXODWLRQIURP&DSH&DQDYHUDOWR&DSH)HDUGXULQJZLQWHU,Q$WNLQVRQ/0HQ]HO'
%XVK . (GV 2FHDQRJUDSK\ RI WKH VRXWKHDVWHUQ 86 FRQWLQHQWDO VKHOI
:DVKLQJWRQ$PHULFDQ*HRSK\VLFDO8QLRQ
0DUWLQVHQ ( (QJHUGDKO + ,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ DQG WHVWLQJ RI D ODWHUDO ERXQGDU\
VFKHPH DV DQ RSHQ ERXQGDU\ FRQGLWLRQ LQ D EDURWURSLF RFHDQ PRGHO &RDVWDO
(QJHQHHULQJ
0DWDQR 5 3KLODQGHU 6 +HDW DQG PDVV EDODQFHV RI WKH 6RXWK $WODQWLF 2FHDQ
FDOFXODWHV IRUP QXPHULFDO PRGHO -RXUQDO RI *HRSK\VLFDO 5HVHDUFK &
0HOORU * $ WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO SULPLWLYH HTXDWLRQ QXPHULFDO RFHDQ PRGHO 8VHUV
*XLGHIRUWKH3ULQFHWRQ2FHDQ0RGHOS
0HOORU*<DPDGD7'HYHORSPHQWRIDWXUEXOHQFHFORVXUHPRGHOIRUJHRSK\VLFDO
IOXLGSUREOHP5HYLHZVRI*HRSK\VLFDODQG6SDFH3K\VLFV
0ROOHU22&DVWDLQJ3+\GURJUDSKLFDOFKDUDFWHULVLWLFVRIWKHHVWXDULQHDUHDRI
3DWRV /DJRRQ R6%UD]LO ,Q 3HULOOR * 3LFFROR 0 & 3LQR4XLYLUD 0 (GV
(VWXDULHVRI6RXWK$PHULFD 1HZ<RUN6SULQJHU9HUODJ
2OVRQ'3RGHWVi*(YDQV5%URZQ27HPSRUDOYDULDWLRQVLQWKHVHSDUDWLRQRI
WKH%UD]LODQG0DOYLQDVFXUUHQWV'HHS6HD5HVHDUFK
2UODQVN\,$VLPSOHERXQGDU\FRQGLWLRQIRUXQERXQGHGK\SHUEROLFIORZV-RXUQDORI
&RPSXWDWLRQDO3K\VLFV
3HUHLUD&6HDVRQDOYDULDELOLW\LQWKHFRDVWDOFLUFXODWLRQRQWKH%UD]LOLDQFRQWLQHQWDO
VKHOIR6R6&RQWLQHQWDO6KHOI5HVHDUFK
3LPHQWD ) (VWXGR QXPpULFR GD LQIOXHQFLD GD GHVFDUJD IOXYLDO H GRV YHQWRV
VREUH D GLQkPLFD GD SOXPD GR 5LR GD 3UDWD 8QLYHUVLGDGH GH 6mR 3DXOR 6mR
3DXOR'LVVHUWDomRGHPHVWUDGRS
3LROD$&DPSRV(0ROOHU22&KDUR00DUWLQHV&6XEWURSLFDOVKHOIIURQWRII
HDVWHUQ6RXWK$PHULFD-RXUQDORI*HRSK\VLFDO5HVHDUFK&
6RDUHV , 0ROOHU 2 2 /RZIUHTXHQF\ FXUUHQWV DQG ZDWHU PDVV VSDWLDO
GLVWULEXWLRQRQWKH6RXWKHUQ%UD]LOLDQ6KHOI&RQWLQHQWDO6KHOI5HVHDUFK
Download

Aplicação de Dados de Radar em Simulações Numéricas da