EUROGEOSOURCE SEMINAR
Brussels, 12th March 2013
NEW RESOURCES, NEW TECHNOLOGIES
NEW DATA NEEDS
António Costa Silva
1
12 March 2013
Chairman of the Management Commission
EuroGeoSource Seminar
SUMMARY
1. WHAT IS CHANGING in the WORLD ENERGY MARKETS
and CHALLENGES for FUTURE
2. NEW RESOURCES
3. NEW TECHNOLOGIES
4. NEW DATA NEEDS
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
2
EuroGeoSource Seminar
1. WHAT IS CHANGING in the WORLD ENERGY MARKETS
and CHALLENGES for FUTURE
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
3
Population, GDP and Primary Energy Consumption
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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PRODUCTION of SELECTED COMMODITIES, 1950, 1975, and 2000
(in thousand metric tons, unless otherwise noted)
PRODUCTION
Bauxite
Cobalt
PERCENT
INCREASE
1950 - 2000
1950
1975
2000
8,370
25,401
135,000
1,513
7
30
Copper
2,645
6,960
Iron ore
250,000
887,389
Nickel
146
787
1,250
756
Titanium
814
3,298
5,187
537
33
371
13,200
399
1,061,148
324
Crude oil (billion barrels)
3,8
19,5
27,3
618
Natural gas (tillion cubic feet)
7,2
55,8
85,1
1,082
Source: US Grological Survey, Minerals Yearbook; BP,
Statistical Review of World Energy
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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POPULATION
7 billion people
GDP
65 trillion US$
2030
2012
A VISION of the WORLD ENERGY CHALLENGES
POPULATION
8,5 billion people
GDP
130 trillion US
CAR FLEET
CAR FLEET
800 million cars
3 billion cars
OIL USE in DEVELOPED WORLD
OIL USE
14 barrels/person/year
OIL USE in DEVELOPING WORLD
Billions of people with better incomes
go from 3 barrels/person/year up to 3
or 4 times more
3 barrels/person/year
WORLD ENERGY MATRIX
. Oil Production is 5 times greater than
in 1957
. Renewables have established a more
secure foundation
. Oil/Coal /Natural Gas provide 80% of
supply
12 March 2013
WORLD ENERGY MATRIX
. Dominance of Natural Gas?
. Consolidation of Renewables
. Solution for the transport system:
(electric/biofuels/GTL//fuel-cells)?
ELECTRICITY
ELECTRICITY
1,5 billion people without access
. Wide access and needs
WATER
WATER
700 million people with scarce resources
. How to lift restrictions?
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ENERGY GAME CHANGERS in XXI CENTURY
UNCONVENTIONAL GAS
INSTABILITY in PRODUCING
COUNTRIES and THREATS
to SUPPLY
12 March 2013
INDUSTRY CATASTROPHIC ACCIDENTS
(e.g. OFFSHORE OIL Spills) and PUBLIC
IMAGE
EMERGENCE of PACIFIC BASIN as
TOP ENERGY CONSUMER
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR
ACCIDENT
CLIMATE CHANGE and
ENVIRONMENTAL REVOLUTION
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EuroGeoSource Seminar
2. NEW RESOURCES
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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OIL and GAS: KEY CHANGES UNDER DEVELOPMENT
IOR / EOR POTENNTIAL
From CONVENTIONAL
to UNCONVENTIONAL
RATIO PRODUCTION / NEW RESERVES
- THE DECLINE for CONVENTIONAL -
140
Millions of barrels per day
120
100
80
60
NEW TECHNOLOGIES
40
UNCONVENTIONAL OIL
20
0
1970
CONVENTIONAL OIL
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
Source: IEA
MAXIMIZATION of RECOVERY FACTORS
Source: 21st World Upstream
Conference
GROWING NEED OF MINING the OCEANS
GROWING DOMINANCE of
UNCONVENTIONAL RESERVES
Source: IEA
Source: IHS CERA
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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MAJOR EUROPE SHALE GAS BASINS IDENTIFIED
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EuroGeoSource Seminar
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D
R
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V
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R
S
F
O
R
F
U
R
T
H
E
R
APPLICATIONS
. Gas is most versatile of fossil fuels
. Used both in power generation and
transportation
. GTL may be competitive solution for
transport in Medium Term
DECARBONIZATION OF ECONOMY
. Gas is the least poluent of fossil
fuels
. May play key role in transition of
energy paradigm
D
R
I
V
E
R
S
F
O
R
F
U
R
T
H
E
R
GAS
DRIVERS
G
A
S
G
A
S
D
E
V
E
L
O
P
M
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N
T
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S
D
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EFFECTS OF JAPAN NUCLEAR CRISIS
. Decision of some countries to slowdown
nuclear power (Germany, Italy, Japan)
. Opens a more decisive role for Gas
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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Major Oil and Gas Discoveries in the Atlantic
Source: 21st World Upstream Conference Global Pacific & Partners
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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New frontiers: Brazil ultra-deep offshore
(pre-salt area )
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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PORTUGAL: ZEE com a Extensão da Plataforma Continental
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RECURSOS ENERGÉTICOS DO MAR
EuroGeoSource Seminar
3. NEW TECHNOLOGIES
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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EXPLORATION
Partex Global Seismic Inversion
Sea Bed Logging
FDP Optimization
Explore the seismic data until the limits
Partex has its own Seismic Inversion
Methodoloogy
CHALLENGES and INDUSTRY
TECHNOLOGICAL RESPONSES
“SPAGHETI FIELDS”
FIELD CONGESTION (2005-2032)
12 March 2013
DIGITAL OIL FIELDS
2010+
Automation / i-Field
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
MICROBIAL EOR - MEOR
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PRODUCTION SOLUTION: HYDRAULIC FRACTURING
• Fracture Technology is responsible for
USA success in gas shales

Use large amount of
water in a short period
of time to develop a gas well

Addition of sand or other
material (proppants) to the
fluid to keep induced fractures
open
 Most wells are horizontal with
one or more horizontal legs
extending to the target sections
 The legs may extend more than
2 Km from the surface location
of the well
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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THE FUTURE OF NATURAL GAS
Gas should make the world a cleaner, safer place
Source: The Economist, 6th August 2011
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EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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2010+
Automation / i-Field
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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SOLWARA COPPER GOLD PROJECT in PAPUA NEW GUINEA
by Nautilus Minerals
- OCEAN MINING -
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EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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The GEOPOLITICS of the PIPELINES
11
1
10
2
a
b
5
6
9
8
13
7
3
4
12
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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Jihad in AFRICA
The Danger in the Desert
Source: The Economist, January 26th - February 1st
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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ENERGY, RESOURCES and SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
. Use of Oil and Gas where they are INDISPENSABLE
. “Low Carbon” solutions:
- Buildings
- Electric/Thermal Generation
- Transportation systems
. Energy Equation
- Electric/Thermal Generation
- Increase of Energy consumption
Transport
systems
-- Need
to reduce
CO2 emissions
. Reduction of Emissions
- Kyoto lessons/IMPROVE “DESIGN MECHANISMS”/ENERGY
EFFICIENCY/GAS FLARING
. CO2 Sequestration and Injection in Oil Reservoirs
- A win/win approach
. Control/Reduction of VOC Emissions
- Surface facilities
. Optimization of local resources
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
- Use of Renewables
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
- Use of Water
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HOW TO MINIMIZE CO2 EMISSIONS?
POWERGENERATION
► CO2 SEQUESTRATION
► UNDERGROUND STORAGE
► CLEAN-COAL TECHNOLOGY
► HYBRID CARS (Combustiv + Electric Motors) - Minim. CO2 Emissions
TRANSPORTS
SYSTEM
12 March 2013
► FLEXI-FUEL (Biofuels + Conventional)
- Low CO2 Emissions
► GTL (With Diesel)
- Low CO2 Emissions
► HYDROGEN (Fuel-Cells)
- No CO2 Emissions
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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BUILDINGS
. Lighting 20% of world electricity
. LED / SSL
. Buildings: context
. Energetic Performance
. "Zero-Energy Homes"
- Micro-generation
Emerging Technologies:
Decarbonisation Economy
. Energy Efficiency
. Economic Competitiveness
. Security
. Environmental Sustainability
TRANSPORTATION
SYSTEMS
. Batteries and plug-in cars
. Electric vehicles
. Advanced biofuels
. Natural gas vehicles
. Evolving smart grids
. Advances in internal combustion
. Increasing fuel efficiency
. Advanced diesels
. New lighter materials
. Chemical Propulsion:
- Space Industry
ELECTRICAL AND THERMAL
GENERATION
. Sequestration and storage of
NANOTECHNOLOGIES
. Production / Storage of Energy
. Energy Efficiency
. New techniques to process
hydrocarbons
12 March 2013
CO2:
- Post-Combustion
- Pre-Combustion
- Oxy-Fuel
. Electricity 30% plus expensive
"CLEAN COAL" FutureGen (USA):
1st Integrated Central
- Electricity Production
+ Hydrogen with CO2 sequestration
. Coal Gasification: Conversion in
gas (H + OC)
. Hydrogen Production
. Renewables: Wind / Solar / Waves/
Geothermal / Biomass/
Nuclear Energy: 3rd and 4th
Generation
“SMART GRIDS”
. Producer / Consumer
. Decentralized and distributed
networks
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TRANSPORTATION FUELS TO SEE RISING DEMAND
Source: Exxon Mobil, the 2010 Outlook for Energy: A view to 2030
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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TRANSPORTS: NEW PARADYGM
Electric Cars
HYDROGEN (Fuel Cells Vehicles)
No CO2 Emissions
HYBRID
(Conventional Fuels+ Electric motor)
Minim CO2 Emissions
FLEXI-FUEL
(Biofuels + Conventional
Low CO2 Emiissions
Conventional
Vehicles
Improved Conventional Vehicles
( Lightweight Materials)
Today
12 March 2013
Tomorrow
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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Energy Road Map and Solutions:
Many Possible Paths Leading to Same “Destination””
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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IMAGEM TÉRMICA do
DESPERDÍCIO de ENERGIA
 Washington, 2012
 Estrada Congestionada
 Veículos em filas lentas
 Só 15% da energia fornecida
pela gasolina é utilizada
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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EuroGeoSource Seminar
4. NEW DATA NEEDS
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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COMO LIDAR COM A INFORMAÇÃO DILUVIANA
CARACTERÍSTICA DO NOSSO TEMPO?
2005
2010
• Mundo produziu 150
Exabytes de
informação digital
• 1 Exabyte = 1 000
milhões de Gigabytes
Aumento 8 vezes
em 5 anos
• O mundo produziu
1 200 Exabytes de
informação
CONSEQUÊNCIAS
•
•
•
•
•
•
Espécie de Lei de Moore acelerada para a informação
A informação passou da escassez à super-abundância em pouco tempo
A gestão da informação é crucial para o exercício da Engenharia moderna
Transformar informação em conhecimento
Minas digitais e campos digitais de petróleo e gás
As implicações para a compreensão dos sistemas complexos e para o processo de decisão
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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FUTURAS AMEAÇAS:
O CIBERTERRORISMO
Ciberterrorismo
• Ataques Sistema Informático Qatar Gas, Saudi
Aramco e NIOC
• Ataque a 15 de Agosto 2012 contra a Saudi
Aramco paralisou 30 000 computadores
• Vírus Shamoon / Stuxnet / Flame
• “Novo Pear Harbour Cibernético?”
• Novas Dimensões da Guerra: o ESPAÇO
DIGITAL
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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New Energy
Model
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EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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EuroGeoSource Seminar
THANK YOU
12 March 2013
EuroGeoSource Seminar
António Costa Silva – Chairman of the Management Commission
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