5th Brazil Infrastructure Investments Forum
Cesar Cunha Campos
Director, FGV Projetos
[email protected]
New York, November 2014
Ports - Railways - Airports Public-Private Partnerships
(PPP/P3): what to
expect in the near future
Airport Infrastructure in Brazil
2
AGENDA
1. ABOUT FGV AND FGV PROJETOS
2. BRAZIL OVERVIEW
3. BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES IN THE BRAZILIAN AIRPORT INDUSTRY
3
ABOUT FGV AND
FGV PROJETOS
4
ABOUT FGV AND FGV PROJETOS
 Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) founded in 1944, is
 FGV’s technical advisory unit to public, private and
the leading Think Tank in Latin America and Top 25
in the world
third-sector institutions in Brazil and abroad
 Develops projects in different areas: economics,
 Its mission is to boost the socioeconomic
administration, and public policy
development of Brazil and boost its role in the
 30 years experience
international scene
 Over 1300 projects developed
Academic
Units
Business
Schools
Economics
Schools
Law
Schools
Social Sciences
School
RJ – EBAPE
SP - EAESP
RJ – EPGE
SP – EESP
RJ – Direito Rio
SP – Direito GV
RJ - CPDOC
Applied
Mathematics School
RJ - EMAp
Communication
& Journalism
School
(to be founded)
FGV
Applied
Knowledge Units
FGV
Projetos
5
Brazilian Institute
of Economy (IBRE)
Publishing
House
Continuing Education
Programs (IDE)
Applied Research
Centers
BRAZIL OVERVIEW
6
BRAZIL OVERVIEW
Geography and Population
7
BRAZIL OVERVIEW
Economy
8
BRAZIL OVERVIEW
Macroeconomic
9
BRAZIL OVERVIEW
Macroeconomic
34 %
18%
17%
10
BRAZIL OVERVIEW
Social
11
CHALLENGES AHEAD
New growth model
Consumptionled growth
Investment- led
growth
BRAZIL’S KEY SUCCESS FACTORS:
12
•
Consistent macroeconomic policies
•
Recovering investors’ confidence
 Job generation
•
Reduction of real interest rates and “cost of doing business”
 Steady income increases
•
Increase private investments (mainly in infrastructure)
 Increased social equality
•
Productivity increase
 Social programs
•
Investments represent only 18% of GDP
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
INFRASTRUCTURE:
•
Brazilian Government estimated infrastructure investments of over US$ 295.2 billion for the coming
years
•
Highways (7.500 km), railways (10.000 km), airports and ports
QUALITY OF EDUCATION:
•
In 2011 Brazil’s public expenditure on education was 6.1% of GDP – above the OECD average of 5.6%
•
Challenge: increase the quality of education  In the Program of International Student Assessment
(PISA), Brazil still performs below the OECD average
IMPROVEMENT OF PROCESSES:
13
•
Improving the hiring process for public sector
•
Bureaucracy reduction
MAKING THE CASE
FOR SMART
INFRASTRUCTURE
INVESTMENTS:
BUSINESS
OPPORTUNITIES IN
THE BRAZILIAN
AIRPORT INDUSTRY
14
AIRPORTS AS SMART INFRASTRUCTURE
COMMERCE
“Tomorrow’s infrastructure
will blend traditional
physical-infrastructure
(transportation and transit
systems, buildings, pipes,
power grid, concrete and
steel) with cyberinfrastructure (computers,
networks and sensors) in
ways that are just
emerging”
INFRASTRUCTURAL
GRID
LOGISTICS
MOBILITY
SECURITY
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
REAL ESTATE
15
http://www.ices.cmu.edu/sii/home.asp
AIR TRAFFIC TREND
2009 - 2013
The growth of the number of domestic and international passengers – departures, between 2009 - 2013 is 56%:
140
109
120
17%
100
million
111
7%
87
22%
80
101
1%
71
60
40
20
0
2009
16
2010
Source: National Civil Aviation Agency (ANAC)
2011
2012
2013
56%
MAJOR BRAZILIAN AIRPORTS
17
AIRPORTS CONCESSIONS TIMELINE
Brazil
+
Up to 2009
PORTO SEGURO (BA)
INTERNACIONAL
DE CABO FRIO (RJ)
2011
SÃO GONÇALO
DO AMARANTE
(RN)
2012
2013
CAMPINAS (SP)
BRASILIA (DF)
GUARULHOS (SP)
1º Batch of Concessions
2015
CONFINS (MG)
GALEÃO (RJ)
2º Batch of Concessions
CURITIBA (PR)
RECIFE (PE)
CUIABÁ (MT)
3º Batch of Concessions
PRIVATE INITIATIVE
AIRPORT – NASP (SP)
18
CONCESSIONS FINANCIAL RESULTS
Brazil
NAME
2011
SÃO GONÇALO
DO AMARANTE (RN)
MINIMUM SIGNATURE BONUS
WINNING SIGNATURE BONUS
US$ 22 mi
US$ 73 mi
% INCREASE
229%
US$ 73 mi
1º Auction
Feb
2012
GUARULHOS (SP)
US$ 1.5 bi
US$ 7 bi
374%
VIRACOPOS (SP)
US$ 852 mi
US$ 1.6 bi
160%
BRASILIA (DF)
US$ 250 mi
US$ 1.9 bi
673%
US$ 10.5 bi
2º Auction
Nov
2013
GALEÃO (RJ)
US$ 2 bi
US$ 8 bi
294%
CONFINS (MG)
US$ 467 mi
US$ 780 mi
66%
US$ 8.78 bi
19
Source: Civil Aviation Secretariat (SAC) | Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank
GUARULHOS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
São Paulo - SP
Passenger flow
70
64%
60
50
million
40
30
12%
9%
12%
20
10
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2031
Source: INFRAERO, DASP
OWNERSHIP
WINNER GROUP
INVEPAR
Airport Company South Africa
(ACSA)
20
ECONOMICS
STAKEHOLDERS
INVEPAR:
ACSA:
90%
10%
WINNING SIGNATURE BONUS
ESTIMATED CAPEX DURING
CONCESSION
US$ 7 bi
US$ 2 bi
% INCREASE
CONCESSION TERM
374%
Source: Civil Aviation Secretariat (SAC) | Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank
20
years
VIRACOPOS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Campinas - SP
Passenger flow
90
80
70
60
millions
50
761%
40
30
20
39%
17%
5%
10
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2041
Source: INFRAERO, DASP
OWNERSHIP
WINNER GROUP
CONSORCIO AEROPORTOS
BRASIL
ECONOMICS
STAKEHOLDERS
TRIUNFO :
UTC :
EGIS:
21
45%
45%
10%
WINNING SIGNATURE BONUS
ESTIMATED CAPEX DURING
CONCESSION
US$ 1.6 bi
US$ 3.7 bi
% INCREASE
CONCESSION TERM
160%
Source: Civil Aviation Secretariat (SAC) | Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank
30
years
JUSCELINO KUBITSCHEK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Brasília - DF
Passenger flow
45
40
35
147%
30
millions
25
20
7%
15
3%
5%
10
5
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2036
Source: INFRAERO, Brasilia Aeroporto
ECONOMICS
OWNERSHIP
WINNER GROUP
CONSORCIO
INFRAMERICA
22
STAKEHOLDERS
INFRAVIX :50%
CORPORACION AMERICANA : 50%
WINNING SIGNATURE BONUS
US$ 1.9 bi
% INCREASE
673%
Source: Civil Aviation Secretariat (SAC) | Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank
ESTIMATED CAPEX DURING
CONCESSION
US$ 1.2 bi
CONCESSION TERM
25
years
ANTÔNIO CARLOS JOBIM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Rio de Janeiro - RJ
Passenger flow
70
60
50
253%
millions
40
30
17%
20
-2%
21%
10
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2038
Source: INFRAERO, DASP
OWNERSHIP
WINNER GROUP
AEROPORTOS
DO FUTURO
ECONOMICS
STAKEHOLDERS
ODEBRECHT:
60%
CHANGI (Cingapura): 40%
WINNING SIGNATURE BONUS
US$ 8 bi
% INCREASE
294 %
ESTIMATED CAPEX DURING
CONCESSION
US$ 2.4 bi
CONCESSION TERM
25
23
Source: Civil Aviation Secretariat (SAC) | Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank
years
TANCREDO NEVES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Belo Horizonte - MG
Passenger flow
50
45
40
35
333%
millions
30
25
20
15
31%
10
9%
-4%
5
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2043
Source: INFRAERO, DASP
OWNERSHIP
WINNER GROUP
AEROBRASIL
ECONOMICS
STAKEHOLDERS
CCR:
US$ 780 mi
75%
MUNICH/ZURICH:
WINNING SIGNATURE BONUS
25%
% INCREASE
66 %
ESTIMATED CAPEX DURING
CONCESSION
US$ 1.5 bi
CONCESSION TERM
30
24
Source: Civil Aviation Secretariat (SAC) | Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank
years
AIRPORT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK
NEW CONCESSIONS
FORECAST
2015
EXECUTIVE
AVIATION
25
BUSINESS INVESTMENT
OPPORTUNITIES
PRIVATE INITIATIVE
AIRPORTS
NEW CONCESSIONS FORECAST
RECIFE
GUARARAPES (PE)
INITIAL VALUE FORECAST
US$ 557 mi
N° PASSENGERS/2013:
6.8 mi
CUIABÁ
MARECHAL RONDON (MT)
INITIAL VALUE FORECAST
US$ 161 mi
N° PASSENGERS/2013
3 mi
CURITIBA (PR)
INITIAL VALUE FORECAST
US$ 557 mi
N° PASSENGERS/2013
6.7 mi
26
Source: Brazilian Airport Infrastructure Company (INFRAERO) | The exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) –
Brazilian Central Bank
PRIVATE INITIATIVE AIRPORTS
Nasp
The Nasp, São Paulo’s new airport, will be the first public airport for commercial flights built by private enterprise
LOCALIZATION
Municipality of CAIEIRAS (SP)
OWNERSHIP
NASP
CONSORTIUM
ANDRADE GUTIERREZ (50%)
CAMARGO CORRÊA (50%)
30 km
GUARULHOS
ECONOMICS
CAMPO DE MARTE
Investment: US$ 2.3 bi
Turnover: US$ 300 mi/year
PASSENGERS/YEAR
45 mi
27
Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank
CONGONHAS
http://oglobo.globo.com
EXECUTIVE AVIATION
Article 627 of the MP, releases the construction of private airports for commercial flights (small planes for private use)
120 km from SP
55 km from SP
CATARINA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT
CAÇAPAVA – AEROVALE
LOCALIZATION: São Roque (SP)
OWNER: JHSF
AREA: 7 mn mq
INVESTMENT: US$ 169 mi in the project’s 1st
phase
Revenue of US$ 73 mi in the 3rd year
LOCALIZATION: Caçapava (SP)
OWNER: Grupo Penido
AREA: 2,25 mn mq
(117 Aeronautical Lots 188 Commercial /
Industrial Lots)
INVESTMENT: US$ 107 mi
28 Source: http://economia.estadao.com.br; http://www.valor.com.br | Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank
Thank you!
[email protected]