ORDEM dos ENGENHEIROS
Lisboa, 1 de Outubro de 2015
“PETRÓLEO e GÁS: a Evolução dos Preços, as
Mudanças Estratégicas nos Mercados e as
Consequências Geopolíticas”
António Costa Silva
Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Ordem dos Engenheiros
Sumário
1. A GEOPOLÍTICA DA ENERGIA
2. EVOLUÇÃO dos PREÇOS do PETRÓLEO e GÁS no MUNDO
e CONSEQUÊNCIAS ECONÓMICAS e GEOPOLÍTICAS
3. O PAPEL do “SHALE GAS”
4. IMPLICAÇÕES para o FUTURO
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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Ordem dos Engenheiros
1. A GEOPOLÍTICA DA ENERGIA
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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Para onde vai o Século XXI?
A GEOPOLÍTICA e a
ECONOMIA
OS RECURSOS
AS AMEAÇAS GLOBAIS
. Climática (migrações)
. Recursos cada vez mais
escassos
. Efeitos da globalização
. Terrorismo
. Declínio do Estado-Nação
. Pirataria
. Emergência de Novos
Actores
. Estados falhados
- Minerais
. Colapso da ordem em
zonas do Globo
- Energéticos
. Proliferação Nuclear
- Água
. Transferência parcial do
poder financeiro
. Crise global do sistema
capitalista
01-10-2015
. Armas de destruição
maciça
. Intensificação da luta
pelos recursos:
- Alimentares
. Controle de matériasprimas estratégicas
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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Population, GDP and Primary Energy Consumption
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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O RITMO EXPONENCIAL DE
CONSUMO E OS LIMITES DA
GEOLOGIA
A INDÚSTRIA MINEIRA
• Consome hoje de 4 a 10% da energia
primária produzida no mundo
• Extracção de metais exige 10 vezes mais
energia que a extracção fluídos
• A barreira mineralógica
• Nos próximos 20 anos à escala do Globo é
preciso extrair mais minérios que durante
toda a História anterior da Humanidade
• Declínio das descobertas e esgotamento
grandes jazigos
• Aumento significativo da procura
mundial de minerais
PLANETA TERRA
• O sentimento de abundância é
uma ilusão?
• 13 000 km de diâmetro
• Mais de 100 elementos
químicos
• 2 000 espécies de
minerais
• Mais de 3 000 mil milhões
de barris de petróleo
AS TECNOLOGIAS
A TABELA PERIÓDICA DE
MENDELEIEV
• O paradoxo de Jevons: mais evolução
tecnológica conduz a mais consumo
• As descobertas maiores do futuro virão do
fundo do mar
• A robótica e os sistemas inteligentes
• As nanotecnologias podem reduzir as
necessidades
• Novo paradigma industrial: Nano-máquinas
com rendimentos energéticos elevados
• 1980: apenas 10 elementos explorados
para aplicações industriais
• 2012: mais de 50
• Computadores, Indústria
Aeroespacial, electrónica, Imagiologia,
etc.
UM MUNDO DE RECURSOS
FINITOS
•
• Hoje 26 elementos da Tabela estão em
penúria
Debate entre cornucopianos e
maltusianos
• Os eternos optimistas e os
eternos pessimistas
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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PRODUCTION of SELECTED COMMODITIES, 1950, 1975, and 2000
(in thousand metric tons, unless otherwise noted)
PRODUCTION
Bauxite
Cobalt
PERCENT
INCREASE
1950 - 2000
1950
1975
2000
8,370
25,401
135,000
1,513
7
30
Copper
2,645
6,960
Iron ore
250,000
887,389
Nickel
146
787
1,250
756
Titanium
814
3,298
5,187
537
33
371
13,200
399
1,061,148
324
Crude oil (billion barrels)
3,8
19,5
27,3
618
Natural gas (tillion cubic feet)
7,2
55,8
85,1
1,082
Source: US Grological Survey, Minerals Yearbook; BP, Statistical Review of Weorld Energy
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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POPULATION
7 billion people
GDP
65 trillion US$
2030
2012
WORLD CHALLENGES
POPULATION
8,5 billion people
GDP
130 trillion US
CAR FLEET
CAR FLEET
800 million cars
3 billion cars
OIL USE in DEVELOPED WORLD
OIL USE
14 barrels/person/year
OIL USE in DEVELOPING WORLD
Billions of people with better incomes
go from 3 barrels/person/year up to 3
or 4 times more
3 barrels/person/year
WORLD ENERGY MATRIX
. Oil Production is 5 times greater than
in 1957
. Renewables have established a more
secure foundation
. Oil/Coal /Natural Gas provide 80% of
supply
01-10-2015
WORLD ENERGY MATRIX
. Dominance of Natural Gas?
. Consolidation of Renewables
. Solution for the transport system:
(electric/biofuels/GTL//fuel-cells)?
ELECTRICITY
ELECTRICITY
1,5 billion people without access
. Reduction or not of inequality?
WATER
WATER
700 million people with scarce resources
. Reduction or not water access?
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GLOBALIZATION OF
OIL DEMAND
OIL-SUPPLY CAPACITY
IS GROWING
• 85% of growth from
developing countries
• Combined effects of income
and population growth
• Improved recovery efficiency
• Role of unconventional oil
• Impact of Gas Shale
Revolution
• Technology improvements
• Expansion of oil output
OIL PRICE VOLATILITY
KEY
FEATURES
of the OIL
and the
GAS
MARKETS
• Departure of oil prices from
economic fundamentals
• Oil price 25% above marginal
cost of production
UNPARALLEL
INVESTMENT CYCLE
GEOPOLITICAL EFFECTS
•
•
•
•
Market instability
Perception of “supply” disruptions
The “fear factor”
Long-term oil price above 70
US$/bbl
01-10-2015
DE-CONVENTIONALIZATION
OF OIL SUPPLY
• US Gas Shale Revolution
• Impact on Oil Shale and Tight
Oil
• Build-up of US, Venezuela and
Canadian production capacity
• Brazil and Atlantic Basin PreSalt-discoveries
FINANCIALIZATION
OF OIL
• Commodity but also financial
asset
• New era of oil pricing dynamics
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
• From 2003 investment growing
1.5 trillion US$ every 3 years
• Investment in 2012 may reach
a new record (600 billion US$)
• Strong build-up of production
capacity
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OIL ON THE EDGE
Break Throughs – and High Prices – have opened
up new frontiers for Petroleum
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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CONSTRAINTS ON OIL AND GAS FLOW FROM MIDDLE EAST
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
Source: 21st World Upstream Conference Organizer Global Pacific & Partners
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
11
THE GEOPOLITCS OF OIL
01-10-2015
Source: FT, 30th March 2011
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THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE PIPELINES
11
1
10
2
a
b
5
6
9
8
13
7
3
4
12
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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JIHAD IN AFRICA
THE DANGER IN THE DESERT
Source: The Economist, January 26th - February 1st
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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AS FRONTEIRAS MARÍTIMAS no MEDITERRÂNEO ORIENTAL
Fonte: Noble Energy
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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OIL ROUTING AKTAU-MAKHACHKALA-NOVOROSSIYSK
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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Central Asia Centre System
45-55 Bcm/yr
Nominal Capacity 100
Bcm/yr
01-10-2015
GAS EXPORT
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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ENERGY GAME CHANGERS in XXI CENTURY
UNCONVENTIONAL GAS
INSTABILITY in PRODUCING
COUNTRIES and THREATS
to SUPPLY
01-10-2015
INDUSTRY CATASTROPHIC ACCIDENTS
(e.g. OFFSHORE OIL Spills) and PUBLIC
IMAGE
EMERGENCE of PACIFIC BASIN as
TOP ENERGY CONSUMER
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR
ACCIDENT
CLIMATE CHANGE and
ENVIRONMENTAL REVOLUTION
18
Ordem dos Engenheiros
2. EVOLUÇÃO dos PREÇOS do PETRÓLEO e GÁS no MUNDO
e CONSEQUÊNCIAS ECONÓMICAS e GEOPOLÍTICAS
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
20
01-10-2015
21
LEVEL of
INVENTORIES
• US stockpiles
• Europe stockpiles
• Asia stockpiles
“THE DOLLAR
EFFECT”
• Negative correlation
oil prices vs. Dollar
value
•Effect of US Federal
Reserve Policy
BALANCE
SUPPLY/DEMAND
• 2015: 2 MB/D
oversupply
• OPEC
• IRAN
• USA
TECHNOLOGICAL
BREAKTHROUGHS
• Shale Gas and
Shale Oil
revolution
• New reserves
• New generating
capacity
• New paradigm
OIL PRICES
EXPLICATIVE FACTORS
GEOPOLITICAL
EFFECTS
•OPEC policies
•Consumers policies
•Instability in key oïl
producers
•Terrorism attacks
SPECULATION in OIL
and COMMODITIES
MARKETS
•Sudden sales of net
positions
•Market perception
OIL MARKET
CYCLES
•More strong when
supply/demand Balance
is tight
•CONTANGO cycle:
future prices higher
than today prices
•Backwardation cycle:
today prices higher
than futures
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ENVIRONMENT
CAR FLEET
COAL
OIL
CHINA ENERGY INDICATORS
01-10-2015
Chinese Net
Oil Imports
• Increased 84% in 7 years (2005-2012)
Increment on Oil
Consumption
• Last 13 years CHINA recorded the largest increment
in the world 12 times
Chinese Oil imports
• December 2012 reached 10.6 MB/D
Domestic Coal
Production
•
•
•
•
World Coal
Consumption
• In 2012 for the first time in History China consumed
more coal than the rest of the world (50.2%)
Growth of China Car
Fleet
• 1 million cars in 1990
• 100 million cars in 2012
Share of world new
vehicles
• China share was 2% in 2002
• China share was 25% in 2012
Sales of New Cars
• China overcome the US in sales of new cars in 2011
• 12 million vehicles in China vs. 11 million in US
Most Polluted
Cities in the world
Increased 135% last 10 years
Every 5 days a new coal plant opens in China
70% of Chinese Energy Matrix based on coal
Huge environment problems
• Out of the 20 most polluted cities in the world China
has 16
• Electric vehicle will be unavoidable
• Huge geopolitical implications
23
Source: 21st World Upstream Conference Global Pacific & Partners
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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Risk of changes
of Central Bank
policies:
. Increase of interest
rates
. Abandon debt
purchase
. Less financing
available
GDP Drop (0.3%
for each 8 US$/bbl
increase in Euro
zone)
Aggravation of
recession
sequels:
. Unemployment
. Loss of income
. Debt increase
HIGHER OIL
IMPORT BILL
Reduction of
available income
for families and
enterprises
Higher Production
Costs
HIGH OIL
PRICE
EFFECTS
in the
Economy
Higher
Commodity
prices
(more 95 billion
US$ for each 10 US$
/bbl increase In EU)
Aggravates fragile
recovery of world
economies
(average growth
3.3% in 2011 vs
3.9% in 2010)
01-10-2015
Accelerates
process of
transference of
wealth from
developed
countries to OPEC
producers (980 billlion US$ in 2008)
Hígher Inflation
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25
PETRO-DOLLARS: who’s rich who’s not
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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Rising Oil price threatens fragile recovery
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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Fonte: Público, 23 Agosto 2014
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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EFFECT OF SHALE
BOOM IN US
PRODUCTION DECLINE IN
SOME KEY COUNTRIES
• Libya (less 80%)
• Iran sanctions/violence (less 1.5
MB/D)
• Nigeria violence/sabotage (less
0.3 MB/D)
• Venezuela (underinvestment)
• Political chaos: in total less 3.5
MB/D in production
OIL PRICE CRASH?
• Next 5 years world may
experience oversupply
• Non-OPEC oil output rise by 1.7
MB/D (2014)
• Total Global demand grows by
1.4 MB/D
• Weak demand due to economic
slowdown in Europe and China
• Question: combination of
slowing demand and plentiful
supplies will overlap the
geopolitical tensions in Middle
East and North Africa?
01-10-2015
OIL PRICE
2011-2013
has been
STABLE
( most stable
period in
industry)
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
• US oil production 2008: 6
MB/D
• US oil production 2013: 9
MB/D
• Canada added 1 MB/D
• North America shale boom
has been a calming factor
• Production lost in key
countries has been replaced
by US shale boom and
Canada increase in
production
IMPACT ON WORLD
ENERGY TRADE
• US oil imports 2005: 60% of
total consumption
• US oil imports 2014: 28%
• Most oil US used to import
now goes to Asia
• Helped markets to be wellsupplied and prices immune
to turmoil
29
The Economist, 18-24 October 2014
01-10-2015
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30
GLOBAL ECONOMIC
RECOVERY
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
BALANCE
• Crude demand slowed
remarkably Q2 2014
• Weak economic growth in
Europe and China
• Raise in global inventories
• IEA: global crude demand
slowed to below 500,000 B/D
• First significant drop in last 2.5
years
• Oil is a leading indicator
• Global economic recovery
weaker than forecasted
OIL PRICE
DROP IN 2014
__________
• Price of Brent
fall below 100
USD/bbl first
time last
years
GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS
AND SUPPLY
• Geopolitical upheavals only in
Libya/Irak not affected significantly
production
• Excess of oil in Atlantic Basin and
North Sea
• European refineries cut back amid
weak margins
• Structural changes in consumers
behaviour towards more efficient
technologies
MARKET STRUCTURE
• Shift to Contango
(prices for future delivery
exceed spot prices)
• Prompt agents to build stocks
• Given volatility of situation in
the Middle East and North
Africa this is a benefit to
Global Energy Security
SAUDI ARABIA EFFECT
• SA cutted selling prices
• Unlikely to curb production amid an excess of
crude supply
• SA lost market share in 2013/2014 in Asia
and Mediterranean to Irak and Iran (heavy
discounts)
• Low-cost OPEC producers seeking to expand
their market share.
01-10-2015
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António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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01-10-2015
Source: The Economist, 05-11 September 2015
32
Sheikhs v shale
Analysis
•More complex situation
•Saudi Arabia Role
•Erosion of OPEC influence
•No control on Non-OPEC
production
•Iran in difficulties
•Russia, Iran, Venezuela and Nigeria
need oil above 100 US$bbl to avoid
huge fiscal deficits
•Undermine competitor advantages
including alternative energies
•But economics of shale oil is very
flexible
•Break-even: 57 to 65 US$/bbl
•Based on wells
•Investment one well: 1.5 M US$
•Gain in productivity:
US economic pragmatism
•In the long-term shale industry may
prevail
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Source: The Economist, 06-12 December 2014
33
The Economist, 18-24 October 2014
01-10-2015
Source: The Economist, 25-31 Oct 2014
34
34
Source: The Economist, 05-11 September 2015
01-10-2015
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35
QUICK WINNERS
• Large oil importing
countries
• Motorists
• Countries where car
is dominant and
lightly taxed
QUICK LOOSERS
• Large oil exporting
countries
• Large oil companies
• Emerging countries
depending on
oil/commodity revenues
IMPACT OF CHEAP OIL
on MARKETS
ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES
FOR INVESTORS IS MORE
COMPLICATED
• Oil prices feed into inflation
• Affect actions of central
banks
• Oil price spike in 2008 led
to a huge mistake in
monetary police by ECB
(raising rates on the eve of
a credit crisis)
IMPACT of OIL
PRICE DECLINE
on INVESTMENT
STRATEGIES
• GS analysis
• Brent at 84 US$/bbl
5% earnings growth for
S&P 500 stocks in 2014
and 8% in 2015
• Brent 74 US$/bbl
More earnings up 1%
• Brent at 114 US$/bbl
1% earnings growth (2014)
WITH CHEAP OIL
SECTORS to INVEST?
SHIFTS in OIL
BRING RISKS
• Requires big shifts
in asset allocation
01-10-2015
EFFECT on STOCK
MARKET is COMPLEX
• Oil is expense for many
• Revenue for some
• Adjustment of oil
companies have effects
for investors and
consumers
• Where price moves to?
• Information technology
• Health care
• Transportation stocks
(up 11% in 2014 MSCI)
• Gambling groups
• Manufactures
• Large retailers
36
OIL PRICES
• Companies as beneficiaries?
• MSCI index world energy
sector down 5.5% (2014)
while equities up 3%
• Oil companies cut capex and
pay shareholders through
dividends and buybacks
• Keep their share price
Source: FT, 8-9 November 2014
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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Impacto Económico da Dependência Excessiva de Combustíveis Fósseis
Fonte: DGEG
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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Evolução do Consumo de Petróleo em Portugal
Fonte: BP Statistical Review of World Energy – Junho 2015
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Evolução do Consumo de Gás Natural em Portugal
Fonte: BP Statistical Review of World Energy – Junho 2014
01-10-2015
Fonte: BP Statistical Review of World Energy – Junho 2015
40
Peso da Importação dos Produtos Energéticos
no PIBpm (€)
Fonte: DGEG
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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Fontes de Energia Primária
Portugal, 2010
Fonte: Prof. José Sucena Paiva
01-10-2015
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António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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PORTUGAL: O PROBLEMA-CHAVE DOS TRANSPORTES
•
Sector dos transportes consome 36% do total da energia final;
•
Transportes rodoviários concentram 33% deste consumo e correspondem
a um Consumo Energético Intensivo fortemente dependente dos
combustíveis fósseis;
•
Geram um desperdício colossal;
TRANSPORTES SÃO O PRINCIPAL
PROBLEMA ENERGÉTICO DO PAÍS
•
O problema agravou-se entre 1990 e 2004: aumento de consumo de 4.5% ao
ano com a expansão do parque automóvel;
•
Nos últimos anos verificou-se tendência ligeira para a redução do consumo
devido aos aumentos dos preços dos combustíveis: necessidade de
consolidação desta tendência.
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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IMAGEM TÉRMICA do
DESPERDÍCIO de ENERGIA
 Washington, 2012
 Estrada Congestionada
 Veículos em filas lentas
 Só 15% da energia fornecida
pela gasolina é utilizada
01-10-2015
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António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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TRANSPORTES: QUESTÕES
•
Enorme dependência externa do petróleo e seus derivados;
•
Poluição elevada e emissões de CO2;
•
Congestionamento do tráfego nas cidades, mais desperdício e baixa de
produtividade;
•
Volume desproporcionado do transporte individual em relação ao público;
•
Portugueses não têm hábito de utilizar preferencialmente os transportes
públicos;
SOLUÇÕES
•
Desenvolver um novo paradigma para a mobilidade urbana baseado no
transporte público;
•
Criação de uma nova cultura com restrições na circulação do carro
individual e dificuldades de estacionamento nos centros urbanos de alta
densidade;
•
Rever políticas de planeamento e ordenamento urbano;
•
Apelo e educação para a utilização dos transportes públicos;
•
Melhor gestão de acessibilidade às cidades e soluções de integração com a
rede de transportes públicos.
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
45
Ordem dos Engenheiros
3. O PAPEL do “SHALE GAS”
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
46
• The Revolution of the SHALE
GAS
• The Conceptual Innovation for
Shale Production
• US Learning Curve
– Footprint Concerns
– Induced Seismicity
• Knowledge of Rocks and
Evaluation of the Potential
• Can the US Shale Model be
exported?
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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What is the SHALE GAS?
A world class source rock and a potential
shale gas reservoir – the DevonianMississippian Woodford Shale
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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PRODUCTION SOLUTION:
HYDRAULIC FRACTURING
• Fracture Technology is responsible for
USA success in gas shales

Use large amount of
water in a short period
of time to develop a gas well

Addition of sand or other
material (proppants) to the
fluid to keep induced fractures
open
 Most wells are horizontal with
one or more horizontal legs
extending to the target sections
 The legs may extend more than
2 Km from the surface location
of the well
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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WORLD TOTAL GAS RESERVES
Source: The Economist, 6th August 2011
01-10-2015
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António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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The U.S. may be the world’s fastest-developing shale gas industry,
but China is thought have more of the cleaner alternative to coal.
China's shale gas basins are massive. The orange depicts
prospective basins while the yellow shows proven grounds. The red
lines are pipelines. International Energy Agency
51
The IEA calculates that electricity prices for German industry have tripled since 2000
Fonte: The Economist, 14th June 2014
01-10-2015
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António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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Private Ownership
of the Land
• Fosters dynamism
and individual
initiative
• Avoids burocracy and
complication
DYNAMICS of US
ENERGY MARKETS
US ENERGY LAW
• Promotes
Entrepreneurship
• Role of small/medium
size Independent
Companies
• Design mechanisms
• Incentives
CREATIVITY/
/INNOVATION
SERVICE
COMPANIES
• Drilling/Fracturing
• Logging/Operations
• Very active
• Easy access
• Ability to challenge
existing paradigms
• Invent new concepts
SUCCESS FACTORS of US
SHALE GAS MODEL.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Can it be exported?
PRODUCTION
SYSTEM
• Availability of
pipelines and
transmission/
distribution system
• Easy access
• Use based on a “pay
tariff”
• No Monopolies
• Active and mature
industry
• Production close to
pipelines and
consumers
• Water needs
GEOLOGY
• Huge basins with vast
resources
• Ability to design
incentives to tap
resources
01-10-2015
ENVIRONMENTAL
REGULATIONS
• Identity
environmental
impacts
• Act through
regulation not
through prohibition
ACCESS to
FINANCING
• Easy
• Simplified
• Supportive
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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US OIL SHALE: TEXAS HEARTLAND HEADS THE US OIL REVIVAL
Source: FT, 8th July 2013
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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Source: BP
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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FOOTPRINT CONCERNS
AIR:
Emissions (CO2 & others…)
Noise and dust (trucks , operations…)
LAND:
Disposals (solid waste…)
Wildlife/Habitat disruption
Surface Footprint
Roads & Traffic
Induced Seismicity
Pipelines
Soil erosion
WATER:
Aquifers quality / contamination
Availability / supply
Sustainable management (flow back…)
Transparency in Operations
Regulatory Response
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António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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ENVIRONMENT SOUND WAY?
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D
D
R
I
V
E
R
S
APPLICATIONS
DECARBONIZATION OF ECONOMY
. Gas is most versatile of fossil fuels
. Used both in power generation and
transportation
. GTL may be competitive solution for
transport in Medium Term
F
O
R
. Gas is the least poluent of fossil
fuels
. May play key role in transition of
energy paradigm
F
U
R
T
H
E
R
R
I
V
E
R
S
F
O
R
F
U
R
T
H
E
R
GAS
DRIVERS
G
A
S
G
A
S
D
E
V
E
L
O
P
M
E
N
T
S
D
E
V
E
L
O
P
M
E
N
T
S
EFFECTS OF JAPAN NUCLEAR CRISIS
. Decision of some countries to slowdown
nuclear power (Germany, Italy, Japan)
. Opens a more decisive role for Gas
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António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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Ordem dos Engenheiros
4. IMPLICAÇÕES para o FUTURO
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Source: ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
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Source: ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
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ENERGY MIX CONTINUES TO EVOLVE
Source: Exxon, The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
01-10-2015
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António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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TRANSPORTATION FUELS TO SEE RISING DEMAND
Source: Exxon Mobil, the 2010 Outlook for Energy: A view to 2030
01-10-2015
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António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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THE GASEIFICATION of
US ECONOMY
SECULAR DOWNTURN of US
FUEL CONSUMPTION
• Gas replacing coal-power plants
• Peak oil consumption in 2005
• Last 7 years US oil demand dropped
by 14%
• GAS in the transport sector
(cities/trucks)
TECHNOLOGY IS
CHANGING THE WAY WE
LIVE, THE WAY WE WORK
AND THE WAY WE PLAY
EMERGING TRENDS in US
TRANSPORT SECTOR
• Even so US DRIVERS reached
in 2012 4.8 trillion km (14 000
trips to the sun)
• The change in way we live,
change the use of energy
• Growing urbanization
SHIFT in HABITS?
• Car-pooling schemes more
popular in US
• ZIPCAR more than 800,000 users
• No car taxes, no parking fees, no
mechanics bill, no car
dependence
• New generation with new vision?
• The growing “virtualization” of life
and Internet shopping
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
US LOVE AFFAIR with
CARS SHIFTING?
• Effect of high oil prices and
financial crisis
• Number of passengers in
Amtrak in 2012 the highest
since 1971
• Oil consumption in California
in 2012 the lowest since 1998
• Chicago and other cities:
growing “PEDESTRIAN” and
more bicycle lanes
• LA public transport sector
reaching records (9 million
passengers per month in
2012)
66
Energy Road Map and Solutions:
Many Possible Paths Leading to Same “Destination””
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António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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RISE OF THE AUTOMOTIVE PATENT TECH WARS
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BUILDINGS
. Lighting 20% of world electricity
. LED / SSL
. Buildings: context
. Energetic Performance
. "Zero-Energy Homes"
- Micro-generation
Emerging Technologies:
Decarbonisation Economy
. Energy Efficiency
. Economic Competitiveness
. Security
. Environmental Sustainability
TRANSPORTATION
SYSTEMS
. Batteries and plug-in cars
. Electric vehicles
. Advanced biofuels
. Natural gas vehicles
. Evolving smart grids
. Advances in internal combustion
. Increasing fuel efficiency
. Advanced diesels
. New lighter materials
. Chemical Propulsion:
- Space Industry
ELECTRICAL AND THERMAL
GENERATION
. Sequestration and storage of CO2:
NANOTECHNOLOGIES
. Production / Storage of Energy
. Energy Efficiency
. New techniques to process
hydrocarbons
01-10-2015
- Post-Combustion
- Pre-Combustion
- Oxy-Fuel
. Electricity 30% plus expensive
"CLEAN COAL" FutureGen (USA):
1st Integrated Central
- Electricity Production
+ Hydrogen with CO2 sequestration
. Coal Gasification: Conversion in
gas (H + OC)
. Hydrogen Production
. Renewables: Wind / Solar / Waves/
Geothermal / Biomass/
Nuclear Energy: 3rd and 4th
Generation
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
“SMART GRIDS”
. Producer / Consumer
. Decentralized and distributed
networks
69
• Send high voltages over long-distances to passive
customers
• Main concerns: supply
electricity and meet peaks in
demand
• Vertical Integrated
• Big
• Centralized
• Regulated
• High Costs
• Deal with the most inefficient
part of the power industry:
the generating capacity that
is held in reserves to meet
Peak Demand
• Old Business Model of
delivering through the grid
over long-distances is in
retreat
• Need to take a long view
• Model under pressure: new
entrants and new forms of
STORAGE and GENERATION
are “eating” the OLD
Business Model
• Analogy to computing
industry: switch from main
frames and terminals to
CLOUD STORAGE and the
Internet
• Need to do new things and
respond to COMPETITION
New Entrants
NEW ENERGY LANDSCAPE
• Era of abundance in Energy
• Revolution of shale gas and
shale oil
• Abundant gas reserves (2 to 3 x
conventional)
• Renewables playing an
increasing role
• Solar energy impressive cost
reduction (75% decline last 6
years)
• The “Hawaii” core example
• Technological breakthroughs
in Storage, Energy Efficiency,
Management of Demand,
Intelligent Consumption
• The revolution of “NegaWatts”:
the unused electricity
• Clever technology with
increased efficiency is shaping
the future
• Capital markets more tilted in
financing solar, storage, energy
efficiency
• Costs of pollution:
“decarbonisation”
• Demand for energy: increase
37% over next 25 years
(“Internet of the Things” ; new
devices to be connected)
Services provided:
• Demand response
• Supply
• Storage
• Energy efficiency
Competitive Advantages
(the Internet Model”
•
•
•
•
Algorithms
Sensors
Processing power
Good Marketing
• Cheaper power + better storage +
increased resilience: shape the grid
of the future
• Transmission costs for electricity are
declining
• Energy efficiency + Renewables +
shale gas provide abundance of
energy, accessible with new
technologies
• More effective management of
supply and demand: sensors,
computer power and algorithms
• Pressure and changes on Business
Models: Management of demand
response; microgrids; “Prosumers”
• Storage business is booming:
biggest advantage avoids need of
generating capacity held in reserves
to meet peak demand
• 1 Mw of storage replaces 10 Mw of
such generating capacity
• Batteries approaching crucial
benchmark: cost of storage 100
US$/Kwh
PRESENT/FUTURE
PAST/PRESENT
Traditional Utilities
OLD MODEL
FINANCE ENERGY FORUM
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António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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TECHNOLOGICAL
BREAKTHROUGHS
ABUNDANT ENERGY
• Cycle of low oil prices
• Shale gas revolution: gas more abundant
and easier to trade
• Gas reserves 2 to 3 times the
conventional; global gas market
• Role of renewables
• Solar renaissance
• Resilience of supply
• China effect on renewables: 2013
investment over 56 billion US$
• Renewables energy became a serious
part of energy mix
• World investment on renewables (2013)
214 billion US$ (53% for solar)
• Costs of Solar: 75% reduction in 6 years
STORAGE
• Getting cheaper and better
• If intermittent energy can be stored
its economics drastically improved
• Big advantage of storage: avoid most
inefficient part of power industry the generating capacity held in
reserve to meet peaks of demand
• 1 Mw storage replaces 10 Mw of
such generating capacity
• Electrical batteries: GIGAFACTORY
approaching key benchmark – 100
US$/Kwh
• Close to grid parity
HOW the WORLD of ENERGY
is CHANCHING:
CURRENT BUSINESS MODEL
UNDER PRESSURE
“NEGAWATTS” and DEMANDRESPONSE REVOLUTION
• Intelligent Consumption: users
generate, store and manage data
efficiently
• Clever technology + Energy Efficiency
lead the change
• Greater efficiency, local production
and storage
• More effective management of
supply and demand
• Micro Grids: new way of using
electricity; cheaper; better design;
data processing; changes in
behaviour
• The Grid is getting smarter
• Deal with unused electricity
• Adjust consumption to meet supply
• Most expensive electricity consumed
at peak time
• Technique of demand response: pay
costumers to switch off at peak level
(2013 US 11.8 billion US$)
• For the grid operator the spare power
gained is very useful
• US/Japan examples: may lead to huge
small power savings from a large
number of consumers.
• “Rush Hour Rewards”
• Spare capacity in Europe in Winter 10
GW (19% of countries combined peak
load)
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CAPITAL MARKETS
• Understanding disruptive effect
of distributed and intermittent
generation combined with
cheaper storage and intelligent
consumption
• Growth of a bond market to pay
for energy efficiency (40 billion
US$ in 2014)
• Solar City (USA) Model
• Price of oil fluctuates; solar is
bound to get cheaper
• Business models for new energy
systems are proven and a wave
of money is breaking over the old
model
DISTRIBUTION
HOW the WORLD of ENERGY
is CHANCHING:
CURRENT BUSINESS MODEL
UNDER PRESSURE
• Transmission costs for electricity
are declining (solid-state
technology)
• With new Technology demand
can be managed to match
supply
• Analogy to computing industry:
switch from main frames and
terminals to cloud storage and
the internet
• Small producers and storage
creates resilience in the network
• Innovation more fast
NEW BUSINESS MODELS
• Demand-response
• Big data/processing
• Sensors, Computing Power,
Algorithms
• Energy efficiency: invisible fuel
01-10-2015
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António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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THE FUTURE OF NATURAL GAS
Gas should make the world a cleaner, safer place
Source: The Economist, 6th August 2011
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INTERLIGAÇÕES DA REDE DE GASODUTOS
Fonte: Expresso, 30 Agosto 2014
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FOUR MAJOR TRENDS
CHANGING WORLD ENERGY
MATRIX
MAJOR ROLE of GAS
• Increasing share of world energy matrix
• Shale Gas revolution and magnitude of
reserves
• Growing electrification
• Gas is most versatile of fossil fuels and
least poluent
• Decarbonization
• Localization
• Optimization
• Used both in power generation and
transportation (GTL)
• “Gaseification” of economy
GROWTH
LOW CARBON SOLUTIONS
• Buildings
and
• Electric/Thermal Generation
SUSTAINABILITY
• Transportation systems
LNG and EFFECTS of JAPAN
NUCLEAR CRISIS
• Decision of some countries to slowdown
nuclear power (Germany, Italy, Japan)
• Open more decisive role for gas and
specially LNG
OIL & GAS INDUSTRY
PUBLIC IMAGE
Clean Technologies and
Reduction of CO2 Emissions
• Recent record of catastrophic accidents
does not help
• Tolerance zero for Gas Flaring
• CO2 sequestration and injection into
oil reservoirs (win-win approach)
• Control/reduction of VOC emissions
(surface facilities)
• Improve Market “design mechanisms”
to promote energy efficiency
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
• Need to improve risk management to
address public concerns
• Industry engaged in environmental and
emissions cutting technologies
• Better communication with the public
• Better environmental regulations without
jeopardizing expansion of required
projects
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António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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CITIES are BEST
INVENTION of MAN
•Mark death of distance
•Rotating platform for markets and
cultures
•Connect human capital
•Cities are main drivers of innovation
THE NEED of a
PARADIGM SHIFT for
WORLD CITIES
CHALLENGES for FUTURE
CITIES
•More sustainable models
•Address energy security
•Smart grids
•New model for mobility
•There is no sustainability for future
without a new vision for the
development of more intelligent
cities
•Sustainability is a multidimensional
concept and needs to question the
excess of the constant growth
logic and fight the waste of
resources
•
•
•
•
Cities occupy 2% of planet surface
50% of world population
Consume 75% of energy produced
Responsible for 80% of CO2
emissions
CITIES with CURRENT
LANDSCAPE IMPLY
HUGE RISKS
•Frenetic urban growth
•Difficulties in resources
management
•Drivers of atmospheric pollution
•“Heat-Islands”
•Negative impact on earth climatic
system
•Key issue: transport system
NEW MODEL for CITIES
•
•
•
•
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Water management
Energy management
Residuals treatment
New role of transport system based
on public transport + electric cars +
evaporation of traffic jams
• New modes of access and
distribution of resources
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GROWING ENERGY CONSUMPTION and URBANISATION:
HOW TO RUN CITIES, DELIVER SOLUTIONS
and MINIMIZE POLLUTION?
Source: The National, 9 November 2014
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DATA SERVICES
• Can change cities in
XXI century as much as
electricity did in last
century
GREATER AMOUNT
OF EASILY
AVAILABLE DATA
ERA OF MASS
URBANIZATION
• Can change urban life
• Major opportunities
• Major threats/risks
THE MULTIPLEXED
METROPOLIS
CITIES XXI CENTURY
•
•
•
•
• Cyberterrorism
Big data
Processing
Conversion into knowledge
Ubiquos data services
DANGERS ON FUTURE
CITIES
• Wealth
• Novelty
• Human Interfaces
• Data
• Electronic panopticians
(everybody is watched)
• Hackers / cyber attacks
• Labirinthic software
TRANSPORT SECTOR
• Further ways to exclude the
poor
• Major changes
• Serendipity at risk
• Automation
• Self-driving cars
• IT protection
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ADDRESS FINANCIAL and
REGULATORY RISKS
•Carbon price uncertainty
•Increasing legislation and standards on
emissions
•Consumer pressure for CO2 emissions
reduction
•Government policies on energy pricing
•Impact of pricing fluctuations on investment
decisions
• Renewal energy policy uncertainty
TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS
•Uncertain political commitment
to technological incentives
•Policy change undermining the
viability of investment
•New technology revolution may
change all aspects of energy
services from sources to
storage
•Impact on user-technologies
(light/vehicles/electric motors)
•Impact on investment structure
ENERGY
COMPANIES
in the
FUTURE
OPERATIONAL
and
SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS
•Future demand uncertainties
•Fuel and electricity supply
disruptions
•Infrastructure failure in changing
climatic conditions
•Transition to cleaner technologies
making infrastructure obsolete
•Cyber threats to smart grids
REPUTATIONAL RISKS
•Environment pollution and liabilities
•Delivery of services compromised by energy
disruptions
•Increasing control on emissions performance
standards
•Cost and stability of services
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OBRIGADO
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