Towards a European Network on
Chemical Weather Forecasting and
Information System
COST ES0602
University of Aveiro, Portugal
Ana Isabel Miranda, Alexandra Monteiro and others
WG 1 Exchange of air quality forecasts and input data
• contribution to the meta-data and quality control information
(Portugal)
• identification of requirements for data exchange
• inventory and characterisation of AQ forecast systems (Portugal)
WG 2 Multi-scale forecasting, multi model ensemble, boundary data
• reviewing operational forecasting tools, evaluation methods,
ensembling techniques, short-term emission abatement actions
and contribution to the decision making process
• preparing requirements for input data and exchange procedures
(with WG 1)
• boundary conditions from large scale models
Air quality forecast - Portugal
the modelling system
2004 Real-time model application
starts for gaseous pollutants
(O3)
Global data
forecast
AVN/NCEP model
MM5
meteorological
model
Meteorological predictions (3 days)
2006 Real-time forecast was
extended for particulate
matter (PM10)
2007 The forecasts of the validated
EMISSIONS
BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS
CHIMERE
Chemistrytransport model
model system are available to
public (O3 e PM10)
Air quality forecast (3 days)
O3 e PM10
Emissions
Large point source
emissions
Area sources
Non-transport emissions
Line sources
Road transport emissions
￰
￰￰ˆ
￰
￰￰ˆ
￰
￰ˆ
￰ˆ
￰￰ˆ
￰￰ˆ
￰
￰ˆ
ˆ￰
￰￰ˆ
￰￰ˆ ˆ
￰￰ˆ
￰￰￰ˆ
￰￰￰ˆ
LEGEND:
￰
À￰
￰
x
￰
_
ð
￰
ˆ
￰
￰
x
PAPER INDUSTRY
POWER PALNT
CEMENT INDUSTRY
CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
PETROLEUM INDUSTRIES
IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY
EMISSS
ES PM10
PM10ￕemissions
auto-estradas
(ton.ano-1km-1)
Highways (t.year-1
0 - 0.01
0.01 - 0.1
0.1 - 1
1- 5
5 - 50
km-1)
NO emissions
(t.year km-2)
EMISSè
ￕ ES NOx
n￣
o transportes
x
(ton.ano-1km-2)
-1
0 - 0.1
0.1 - 1
1 - 10
10 - 100
100 - 1000
Model application
1
st
simulation European domain
58ºN
58N
CHIM-EUR
Period
3 days forecast
Boundary conditions
MOZART and GOCART climatological model
Emissions
EMEP inventory
Vertical structure
CHIM-PT
14W
14ºW
8 layers (until 3000 m)
50x50 km2
50x50 km
2
25E
35N
35ºN
25ºE
Air quality assessment
Model application
2
nd
simulation Portugal domain
Boundary conditions
output coarse simulation 50x50
km2
Emissions
580 km
INERPA inventory
10x10 km2
290 km
“one-way nesting technique”
Air quality forecast
CHIMERE validation - 2006
ÍLHAVO
máximos diários
OLO - background
ERVEDEIRA
fundo rural
-3
(µg.m )
300
CIR
240
observado
simulado
PREDICTED
PM10
OLO
DE OLO
ERV
-LAMAS
background
rural
background
fundo rural
-3
(µg.m )
150
OBSERVED
OLO
O3
observado
OBSERVED
125
simulado
PREDICTED
100
180
#
#
#
75
120
50
60
25
ILH
0
0
0
30
60
dias
90
120
ILHILHAVO
- traffic
tráfego
-3
(µg.m )
30
150
observado
simulado
240
60
dias
90
120
150
CIRCULAR SUL
CIR
-tráfego
traffic
-3
(µg.m )
300
ERV
0
150
observado
simulado
125
100
180
75
120
50
60
LAV
#
#
##
ESC
25
0
0
0
30
60
dias
90
120
LAVESCAVADEIRA
- industrial
industrial
-3
(µg.m )
300
0
150
30
60
dias
90
120
150
LAVRADIO
TEI - industrial
industrial
-3
(µg.m )
150
observado
simulado
240
observado
simulado
125
100
180
75
120
50
60
25
0
00
30
30
60
60
dias
days
90
90
120
120
150
150
0
0
0
30
30
60
60
dias
days
90
90
120
120
dias
150
150
Air quality forecast
CHIMERE validation - 2006
80
80
O3
[OO3]3 hourly
hourly
> 180
m-3 -3
values
> 180µg
µg m
80
80
60
60
60
40
40
40
20
20
20
00
80
80
(summer)
60
40
20
0
Day+0
DAY+0
Day+1
DAY+1
Day+2
DAY+2
-3
[O3] octo-average
120
O3 octo-averages >
> 120
µg µg
m-3 m
0
80
80
60
60
60
60
40
40
40
40
20
20
20
20
0
0
-3 m-3
[PM10PM
] daily
mean > 50 µg
10 daily values > 50 µg m
Day+0
DAY+0
Day+1
DAY+1
Day+2
DAY+2
% successful forecast
00
% false alarms
DAY+0
Day+0
Day+1
DAY+1
Day+2
DAY+2
-3 m-3
[PM10]PMdaily
mean > 50 µg
10 daily values > 50 µg m
(winter)
Day+0
DAY+0
Day+1
DAY+1
Day+2
DAY+2
% successful forecast
PM10
Air quality forecast
CHIMERE validation - 2006
agreement (%) (%)
AQIAQIagreement
O3
O3
100
100
Day+0
80
80
6060
4040
2020
00
ALF
ANT
ARC
BAG
BEA
CAL
CAM
CER
CHA
CUS
ENT
ERM
ERV
ES C
FAR
FUN
HRT
HVE
ILH
LAR
LAT
LEC
LOU
MAL
monitoring stations
MCH
MEM
MVE
ODI
OLI
OLO
P ER
P ONT
PP
REB
RES
SMIN
SON
STIR
AQI agreement (%)
AQI agreement
(%)
PM
PM10
100
100
TEI
VER
VNT
10
Day+0
80
80
6060
4040
2020
00
ANT
AVE
AVL
BOA
CAL
CAM
CASC
CER
CHA
CIR
CUS
DVN
ENT
ERM
ERV
ESC
ESP
FAR
FRN
FUN
GUI
HRT
ILH
LAR
LAT
LAV
monitoring stations
LOU
MAL
MARQ
MAT
MEM
MUN
ODI
OLI
OLO
PAR
P ER
QUE
REB
SHR
STIR
TEI
VCON
VER
VNT
Web page
www.dao.ua.pt/gemac/previsao_qar
Web page
O3
PM10
Thank you!!!