The End of the Good Times
But they were really good
Latin America
Welfare and Employment
Welfare has Seen Large Improvements in Latin America
Welfare has Seen Large Improvements in Latin America
The Labor Market has been Crucial
The Labor Market has been Crucial
Commodity Prices
250,00
Todas
alimentos e bebidas
Matérias primas agrícolas
Metais
200,00
150,00
100,00
50,00
0,00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Savings and Investment are Low (even for high commodity price years)
50
China Savings
India Investment
Percentage of GDP
40
Investment
Savings
Investment Argentina
30
Savings Argentina
Investment Brazil
20
Savings Brazil
10
0
1994
Year
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
Savings and Investment are Low (even for high commodity price years)
Percentage of GDP
30
20
10
0
1994
Year
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
The Educational Film Looks Good but the Picture is Bad
600
32 improved
550
Finlândia -9,2
500
PISA 2009
Portugual + 18,7
Turquia + 22,7
450
Chile +8,5
México + 11,4
Brasil + 16,76
Colombia + 17,6
Argentina +13,6
400
Tunísia +14,9
350
23 got worse
300
300
350
400
450
PISA 2006
500
550
600
Brazil
The State
Transfers as a percentage of GDP
18%
16%
16,2%
15,7%
14%
14,4%
12,8%
Transfers as a % of GDP
12%
10%
14,7%
14,8%
14,3%
13,1%
11,0%
Brasil Sem Miseria
8%
6%
Bolsa Familia
4%
2%
0%
1990
1995
2000
Year
2005
2010
2015
Concentrating and deconcentrating transfers
60%
Neutral
Concentrating and deconcentrating transfers
50%
0,52
0,49
0,49
0,47
0,45
0,44
40%
0,53
0,52
0,51
0,47
0,50
0,51
0,49
0,43
0,41
0,42
0,38
0,39
0,39
0,37
0,37
0,37
Concentrating
30%
Brasil Sem Miseria
20%
Deconcentrating
0,13
0,14
0,11
10%
0,06
0,08
0,06
0,05
0,06
Bolsa Familia
0%
1992
1996
2000
2004
Year
2008
2012
2016
Brazil: Rapid growth, the middle income trap and no new trajectory
Per capita GDP
30
25
Middle income trap: 0.6%
20
No Escape: 2.2%
15
Rapid growth: 4.7%
10
5
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
Year
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Recent Labor Market Performance in Brazil
0,53
Habitual Earnings
Observed Earnings with no Zeros
Observed Earnings with Zeros
Gini Coefficient
0,52
0,51
0,5
0,49
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Quarter