Presentation by IMF Resident Representative in Mozambique for the Development Partners Group, August 5, 20041,2 Inflation dropped slightly: In June 2004 in Maputo inflation fell slightly, which implies accumulated inflation in the last 12 months of 13.3 percent (see attachment from INE). Accumulated inflation this year through June amounted to 6.4 percent which implies that to meet the program target of 11 percent by end 2004 monthly inflation would have to average about 0.8 percent. We continue to believe that this is achievable assuming that there is no concentration of external disbursements at the end of the year (as occurred in 2003) and continued appropriate monetary policy. The inflation in the last 12 months has been driven by sharp increases in the cost of housing (19 percent), food (13 percent), and, to a lesser extent, petroleum products (11 percent). Interest Rates rose slightly in July: Banco de Moçambique continued to maintain its reference interest rates at 8.25 (FPA) percent and 18.5 percent (FPC). Recent issues of TAMs at very short maturities show stable market interest rates which are now just above 8 percent, but issues of longer maturities, at just 1 The Development Partners Group is comprised of the Heads of Mission of all bilateral donors and multilateral institutions that operate in Mozambique. 2 This document has not been reviewed by the IMF’s Executive Board. -2- about 13 percent, indicate an increase of about ½ to 1 percentage point compared to June. The Metical appreciated slightly vis a vis the dollar. Both the BM and commercial market rates (at which the majority of foreign exchange transactions occur) appreciated about 5 percent in the first seven months of 2004. This is largely the result of a gradual change in BM foreign exchange market intervention policy. The GOM issued T-bills at the beginning of July for a net increase in government debt of about MT 110 billion. The rates on these issues were more or less the same as at the end of last year—just over 13 percent. This represents an increase in T-bill rates compared to May and June issues. An IMF inspection mission of SISTAFE took place last week. The conclusions were: • There has been considerable progress in recent months. o A revised ministerial decree was issued in June to make GOM procedures consistent with SISTAFE o The management framework of the reform process has been strengthened o The collaboration between UTRAFE (the reform management unit) and the main functional departments of the MPF has intensified. • Short term --The conditions are set to achieve the IMF benchmark of making SISTAFE operational as of October which means that the third quarter budget execution report will be produced using -3- SISTAFE and one of the new budget classifiers and that the MPF will execute the budget through SISTAFE, including funds transfers to ministries and agencies and the consolidation of reports, with the existing system as a back-up. If the benchmark is not met it will likely have been as a result of political impediments and/or bureaucratic infighting rather than technical problems. • Medium term-The key is to expand the functionality of SISTAFE and the key measure would be to stop advance payments which undermine budget discipline and control by allowing line ministries to spend beyond allocations in the budget. • Longer term-There is a need to step up training of Mozambicans to be able to manage the new system. An IMF mission will begin work in Maputo September 924 with the purpose of assessing economic developments and compliance with program targets. A new letter of intent will be negotiated. ÍNDICE DE PREÇOS NO CONSUMIDOR TOTAL E POR CLASSES 2002 - 2004 - MAPUTO Descrição pond Ano Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Quadro 1. Indice Mensal (Base: Dezembro 1998 = 100) Total Alimentação, Bebidas e Tabaco Vestuário e Calçado Conforto de Habitação Saúde Transportes e Comunicações Educação, Cultura e Recreio Outros Bens e Serviços 100.00 2002 2003 2004 144.1 146.0 145.0 145.4 157.1 160.7 164.9 166.9 184.4 185.3 187.1 189.6 145.6 169.7 190.8 147.1 148.6 149.4 168.3 168.3 169.4 190.7 149.6 150.2 170.6 172.3 153.0 173.8 157.5 179.2 63.46 2002 136.9 137.3 136.5 135.8 135.1 135.9 137.9 138.6 139.7 140.7 144.9 151.4 2003 151.0 155.0 159.8 162.6 165.9 163.6 162.8 162.9 163.7 165.3 167.1 175.0 2004 180.7 181.6 183.2 186.9 187.6 185.8 4.62 2002 123.0 123.3 123.3 123.3 123.4 123.4 123.4 123.4 123.4 124.5 124.6 126.1 2003 122.2 122.0 123.2 123.1 123.0 123.3 123.0 120.9 122.4 122.7 122.3 122.3 2004 124.0 124.6 124.6 125.0 125.0 125.5 17.01 2002 183.0 188.6 181.5 185.1 189.1 194.2 192.9 195.1 191.2 190.2 190.5 189.9 2003 189.8 195.3 199.5 198.7 201.3 201.3 203.5 204.4 207.8 211.6 213.0 215.0 2004 223.9 224.5 229.7 230.1 234.1 239.3 2.46 2002 103.4 104.7 106.5 106.8 106.0 108.1 118.9 118.8 119.1 119.3 117.4 119.3 2003 115.8 117.7 122.0 127.4 127.5 128.4 125.1 128.7 129.9 130.2 133.4 133.4 2004 133.4 133.7 131.5 131.5 131.5 131.2 4.63 2002 170.1 184.5 198.3 202.1 202.3 202.5 204.2 205.1 206.0 206.0 205.0 204.7 2003 204.7 204.8 205.4 208.9 210.0 210.2 210.2 230.5 230.7 230.7 232.0 232.3 2004 231.6 233.0 232.0 232.2 232.6 233.9 2.75 2002 131.6 131.5 131.5 131.6 131.4 132.8 132.8 132.8 132.8 133.3 136.5 144.5 2003 146.9 146.8 147.3 147.7 147.7 147.7 148.1 149.9 149.5 149.4 149.4 149.9 2004 150.4 150.7 151.2 151.2 151.3 151.2 5.07 2002 126.1 125.5 126.1 126.7 127.0 127.5 128.4 128.6 129.9 131.2 132.4 135.9 2003 136.7 139.3 143.6 145.3 149.0 150.8 153.6 151.9 152.3 152.7 153.1 154.0 2004 153.2 155.1 156.2 157.1 157.8 157.9 Quadro 2. Variação Mensal Total Alimentação, Bebidas e Tabaco Vestuário e Calçado Conforto de Habitação Saúde Transportes e Comunicações Educação, Cultura e Recreio Outros Bens e Serviços 100.00 2002 -0.2 1.3 -0.7 0.3 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.9 2.9 2003 -0.3 2.3 2.6 1.2 1.6 -0.8 0.0 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 3.1 2004 2.9 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.6 -0.1 63.46 2002 -2.0 0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 0.6 1.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 3.0 4.5 2003 -0.2 2.6 3.1 1.8 2.0 -1.4 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.1 4.7 2004 3.3 0.5 0.9 2.0 0.4 -0.9 4.62 2002 3.9 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.1 1.2 2003 -3.1 -0.2 1.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 -1.8 1.3 0.3 -0.3 0.0 2004 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.4 17.01 2002 2003 4.2 3.0 -3.8 2.0 2.1 2.7 -0.6 1.1 -2.0 -0.5 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 2.9 2.1 -0.4 1.3 0.0 1.1 0.4 1.7 1.8 0.7 0.9 2004 4.2 0.2 2.3 0.2 1.8 2.2 2.46 2002 2003 -0.5 1.3 1.7 0.3 -0.8 2.0 9.9 0.0 0.3 0.2 -1.6 1.6 -2.9 1.7 3.6 4.4 0.1 0.7 -2.6 2.9 0.9 0.2 2.4 0.0 2004 0.0 0.2 -1.7 0.0 0.0 -0.2 4.63 2002 2003 0.7 8.4 7.5 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.6 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.1 2004 -0.3 0.6 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.75 2002 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.9 1.7 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.4 2004 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.07 2002 2003 0.7 -0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 2.6 0.6 1.9 3.1 1.2 2.6 1.2 1.8 -1.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 2004 -0.5 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 (Maputo,Junho) - 1/5 Descrição pond Ano Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Quadro 3. Variação Acumulada Total 100.00 2002 -0.2 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.9 3.0 3.5 3.6 4.1 6.0 9.1 2003 -0.3 2.0 4.7 6.0 7.7 6.9 6.9 7.5 8.3 9.4 10.4 13.8 Alimentação, Bebidas e Tabaco Vestuário e Calçado Conforto de Habitação 2004 2.9 3.4 4.4 5.8 6.5 6.4 63.46 2002 -2.0 -1.7 -2.2 -2.8 -3.3 -2.7 -1.2 -0.8 0.0 0.7 3.8 8.4 2003 -0.2 2.4 5.5 7.4 9.6 8.0 7.5 7.6 8.1 9.2 10.4 15.6 2004 3.3 3.8 4.7 6.8 7.2 6.2 4.62 2002 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 5.2 5.4 6.6 2003 -3.1 -3.2 -2.3 -2.4 -2.5 -2.2 -2.4 -4.1 -2.9 -2.7 -3.0 -3.0 2004 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.6 17.01 2002 2003 4.2 7.4 3.3 5.4 7.6 10.5 9.8 11.0 8.9 8.3 8.5 8.1 -0.1 2.9 5.0 4.6 6.0 6.0 7.1 7.6 9.4 11.4 12.2 13.2 2004 4.2 4.4 6.8 7.0 8.9 11.3 2.46 2002 2003 -0.5 0.8 2.5 2.8 2.0 4.1 14.4 14.3 14.7 14.8 13.0 14.8 -2.9 -1.3 2.3 6.8 6.9 7.7 4.9 7.9 8.9 9.2 11.8 11.8 2004 0.0 0.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6 4.63 2002 2003 0.7 9.1 17.4 19.6 19.7 19.8 20.8 21.3 21.9 21.9 21.3 21.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.7 12.6 12.7 12.7 13.3 13.5 2004 -0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.75 2002 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.3 3.7 9.8 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.5 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.7 2004 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 5.07 2002 2003 0.7 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.5 2.7 3.7 4.7 5.7 8.5 0.6 2.5 5.7 6.9 9.7 11.0 13.0 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.3 2004 -0.5 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.5 100.00 2002 22.9 24.9 23.2 22.2 19.5 18.3 16.6 15.2 14.3 10.5 8.9 9.1 2003 9.0 10.1 13.7 14.8 16.5 14.4 13.2 13.3 14.0 14.7 13.6 13.8 Saúde Transportes e Comunicações Educação, Cultura e Recreio Outros Bens e Serviços Quadro 4. Variação Homóloga Total Alimentação, Bebidas e Tabaco Vestuário e Calçado Conforto de Habitação Saúde Transportes e Comunicações Educação, Cultura e Recreio Outros Bens e Serviços 2004 17.4 15.3 13.5 13.6 12.5 13.3 63.46 2002 26.8 27.3 26.1 24.6 19.6 17.4 16.0 13.9 14.3 9.6 8.4 8.4 2003 10.4 12.9 17.1 19.8 22.8 20.4 18.0 17.5 17.2 17.5 15.3 15.6 2004 19.7 17.1 14.6 14.9 13.1 13.6 4.62 2002 18.8 18.4 18.8 17.9 17.4 14.7 12.4 12.4 11.7 11.3 6.8 6.6 2003 -0.6 -1.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -2.1 -0.9 -1.4 -1.9 -3.0 2004 1.5 2.2 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.8 17.01 2002 2003 19.8 24.7 17.9 18.2 20.1 21.0 17.1 16.9 11.6 7.9 8.3 8.1 3.7 3.6 9.9 7.3 6.5 3.7 5.5 4.8 8.7 11.3 11.8 13.2 18.9 2004 18.0 14.9 15.2 15.8 16.3 2.46 2002 2003 7.3 11.0 8.7 9.1 7.6 8.1 18.7 14.4 13.9 15.0 13.0 14.8 12.0 12.4 14.6 19.3 20.3 18.8 5.2 8.3 9.1 9.1 13.6 11.8 2004 15.2 13.6 7.7 3.2 3.1 2.2 4.63 2002 2003 19.7 29.9 39.6 36.1 33.3 33.7 34.4 35.4 35.7 36.0 21.3 21.1 20.3 11.0 3.5 3.4 3.8 3.8 2.9 12.4 12.0 12.0 13.1 13.5 2004 13.1 13.8 13.0 11.2 10.8 11.3 2.75 2002 2003 7.2 5.1 6.9 7.2 6.8 7.9 7.9 6.7 6.8 6.1 4.6 9.8 11.6 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.4 11.2 11.5 12.8 12.6 12.1 9.4 3.7 2004 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 5.07 2002 2003 14.0 13.1 13.6 13.4 12.8 11.1 9.0 8.7 8.5 7.4 6.2 8.5 8.3 11.0 13.9 14.7 17.3 18.3 19.6 18.1 17.2 16.4 15.7 13.3 2004 12.1 11.3 8.8 8.2 5.9 4.7 (Maputo,Junho) - 2/5 CONTRIBUIÇÃO MENSAL EMJUNHO DE 2004 Quadro 5. Contribuição Quadro 6. Produtos com por classes Quadro 7. Produtos com maior contribuição positiva Descrição Alimentação, Bebidas e Tabaco Vestuário e Calçado Conforto de Habitação Saúde Transportes e Comunicações Educação, Cultura e Recreio Outros Bens e Serviços -0.58 0.01 0.46 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 TOTAL -0.07 Descrição Carvão Petróleo Pão Frango vivo Arroz corrente Passagem de avião Farinha de milho branco Outros Sub-total maior contribuição negativa Descrição Milho branco Tomate Batata Coco Couve Carapau congelado de 2ª Açúcar amarelo Outros Sub-total 0.37 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.07 0.72 -0.30 -0.07 -0.06 -0.05 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.20 -0.80 CONTRIBUIÇÃO ACUMULADA ATÉ JUNHO DE 2004 Quadro 8. Contribuição por classes Quadro 9. Produtos com maior contribuição positiva Descrição Alimentação, bebidas e tabaco Vestuário e calçado Conforto de habitação Saúde Transportes e comunicações Educação, cultura e recreio Outros bens e serviços Total 3.84 0.08 2.31 -0.03 0.04 0.02 0.11 6.37 Descrição Tomate Carvão Lenha Cebola Pão Amendoim Água Outros Sub-total Quadro 10. Produtos com maior contribuição negativa Descrição Batata Milho branco Ovos de galinha Laranja Frango vivo Chamadas telefónicas internac Feijao nhemba Outros Sub-total 0.96 0.75 0.60 0.51 0.50 0.44 0.41 2.98 7.15 CONCEITOS Ponderador de um item é o seu peso no valor total das despesas de uma família, em percentagem. Índice de Preços no Consumidor é o rácio ponderado do conjunto dos preços em relação ao período base Variação Mensal é a variação entre o índice de determinado mês e o do mês anterior, em percentagem. Variação Acumulada é a variação entre o índice de determinado mês e o de Dezembro do ano anterior, em percentagem. Variação Homóloga é a variação entre o índice de determinado mês e o homólogo do ano anterior, em percentagem. GRÁFICO 1. VARIAÇÃO MENSAL 2002 2003 2004 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 (Maputo,Junho) - 3/5 Ago Set Out Nov Dez -0.16 -0.12 -0.09 -0.07 -0.05 -0.04 -0.03 -0.22 -0.78 GRÁFICO 2.VARIAÇÃO ACUMULADA 2002 2003 2004 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez -5.0 GRÁFICO 3. VARIAÇÃO HOMÓLOGA 2002 30.0 2003 2004 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul (Maputo,Junho) - 4/5 Ago Set Out Nov Dez Preços médios mensais de produtos seleccionados, 1000,00 Mt (Contos) Ordem Nome do produto 1 Arroz corrente 2 Milho branco 3 Farinha de milho branco 4 Farinha de trigo normal 5 Pão 6 Carne de vaca de 2ª limpa 7 Frango vivo 8 Salsicha em lata 9 Carapau congelado de 2ª 10 Camarão seco 11 Conserva de peixe em lata 12 Leite fresco 13 Leite em pó 14 Leite condensado 15 Cerelac 16 Manteiga 17 Ovos de galinha 18 Óleo alimentar 19 Margarina flôr 20 Alface 21 Cebola 22 Cenoura 23 Couve 24 Repolho 25 Tomate 26 Laranja 27 Banana 28 Coco 29 Feijão manteiga 30 Feijão nhemba 31 Amendoim 32 Batata 33 Batata-doce 34 Mandioca fresca 35 Farinha de mandioca 36 Açúcar amarelo 37 Açucar branco 38 Jam de ananás (mermelada) 39 Chá 40 Sal grosso 41 Vinagre 42 Alho 43 Po de caril 44 Caldo de galinha 45 Caldo de vaca 46 Refresco em garrafa 47 Sumo 48 Cerveja garrafa 49 Cigarros - Palmar 50 Capulana 51 Lenço de cabeça 52 Fraldas U. Medida Kg Kg Kg Kg 200 gr Kg Unidade Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Dúzia Litro Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Unidade Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Litro Kg Kg Kg Kg Litro Litro Litro Maço Unidade Unidae Unidade Jan.04 9.3 6.3 14.8 12.7 2.8 96.8 62.6 90.4 26.9 164.9 76.6 28.8 188.5 51.5 44.3 140.2 38.3 38.4 53.9 14.6 18.8 27.6 11.3 11.7 16.2 21.7 9.7 4.5 27.9 14.7 29.9 18.1 7.1 8.9 7.7 14.3 18.3 49.3 241.5 5.8 13.0 44.1 204.8 149.7 138.9 20.0 32.7 37.7 14.0 52.7 14.8 20.5 Fev.04 9.3 6.4 14.8 12.7 2.8 97.7 60.3 90.1 26.6 176.6 76.9 29.3 190.3 51.7 46.6 141.5 36.2 39.0 54.6 16.1 18.0 29.7 13.6 11.7 16.6 20.1 10.0 4.9 28.3 14.3 31.0 17.6 7.1 8.9 8.3 14.4 18.1 49.6 241.1 5.9 12.9 45.6 205.3 152.3 138.9 20.2 33.2 37.6 14.2 52.7 14.8 20.5 Mar.04 9.4 7.0 15.2 12.1 2.8 98.5 59.7 88.6 26.3 176.6 79.0 29.4 193.4 51.9 46.6 141.7 35.2 39.2 54.6 15.2 18.2 29.9 14.5 11.9 16.5 17.3 10.0 5.0 28.6 14.4 31.2 18.2 7.5 9.3 7.9 14.6 18.3 49.2 243.4 5.9 12.9 45.6 204.8 159.2 144.2 20.1 33.3 37.6 14.2 52.7 14.8 20.5 Abr.04 9.5 7.0 15.7 12.2 3.0 100.4 60.2 88.3 26.7 176.6 80.5 29.9 196.3 52.2 46.6 141.6 35.6 39.7 54.8 16.3 17.9 34.7 14.9 13.0 17.9 15.3 10.2 5.0 28.9 14.4 32.6 17.0 7.5 9.7 7.9 15.0 18.8 49.3 241.7 6.0 12.7 45.6 208.9 160.9 144.2 20.2 34.1 37.6 14.2 52.7 14.8 20.5 Mai.04 9.5 7.0 15.9 12.5 3.0 100.4 60.4 87.7 26.4 176.1 80.6 30.3 196.0 52.5 46.4 141.4 34.8 39.5 54.7 16.7 18.7 35.2 14.6 12.5 17.9 14.9 10.3 4.7 28.7 13.9 33.0 16.5 7.5 9.7 8.0 15.6 19.1 49.3 241.2 5.9 12.7 45.6 205.6 166.1 152.1 20.2 34.5 37.7 13.9 52.7 14.8 20.5 (Maputo, Junho) - 5/5 Jun.04 9.6 6.1 16.0 13.0 3.1 100.9 62.0 87.2 26.2 176.5 80.1 30.4 196.2 52.4 46.3 141.3 34.5 39.7 55.4 15.5 18.6 34.0 13.7 12.6 17.5 12.6 10.2 4.5 28.7 12.7 32.9 16.1 7.5 9.7 7.8 15.5 18.9 49.3 241.2 6.0 12.7 43.6 206.1 167.8 152.1 20.2 34.3 37.7 13.8 53.7 14.8 20.5 Jul.04 Ago.04 Set.04 Out.04 Nov.04 Dez.04 Ordem 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 Nome do produto Gás Petróleo Carvão Lenha Detergente em pó Sabão bingo Fósforos Repelentes de insectos Fenoximetil penicilina Cloroquina Paracetamol Gasolina Caderno escolar Lapis de carvão Esferográficas Papel higiénico Pensos higiénicos (modess) Sanduich de ovo U. Medida Botija (11 Kg) Litro Lata / 5 L Montinho Kg Kg 10 Unidades 200g Dose Dose Dose Litro Unidade Unidade Unidade Unidade Unidade Unidade Jan.04 158.7 8.8 10.9 9.3 13.8 70.2 16.9 6.8 42.8 11.5 55.4 10.0 55.7 15.2 2.8 4.4 3.7 4.2 Fev.04 166.1 9.1 11.1 9.1 14.0 72.1 17.0 6.7 43.0 11.5 55.4 10.0 55.7 15.1 2.8 4.5 3.7 4.2 Mar.04 166.3 9.4 11.2 9.8 14.0 72.6 16.9 6.8 42.9 11.5 53.9 10.0 55.7 15.4 2.8 4.5 3.7 4.3 Abr.04 167.4 9.4 11.2 9.8 14.4 73.9 17.0 6.7 42.9 11.5 53.9 10.1 55.7 16.2 2.8 4.5 3.7 4.3 Mai.04 169.4 9.6 12.2 9.8 14.4 74.0 16.9 6.9 42.9 11.5 53.9 10.1 55.7 17.4 2.8 4.5 3.7 4.3 (Maputo, Junho) - 5/5 Jun.04 169.4 10.1 13.7 9.8 14.5 74.4 16.9 7.0 42.5 11.5 53.9 10.1 55.7 18.0 2.8 4.5 3.7 4.3 Jul.04 Ago.04 Set.04 Out.04 Nov.04 Dez.04