AN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST SYSTEM FOR THE
METROPOLITAN AREA OF SÃO PAULO
Augusto José Pereira Filho
Oswaldo Massambani
Ricardo Hallak
Hugo Karam
Reinaldo Haas
Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas
Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas
Universidade de São Paulo
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Motivation
City light NASA
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
ACQUA 20/06/ 2003
(mm h-1)
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Fonte: OESP
Fonte: OESP
(mm)
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
DAILY RAINFALL ACCUMUATION 2004
29/01
30/01
31/01
01/02
02/02
04/02
(mm)
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
SEA BREEZE FLOOD EVENTS 2002 - 2004
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Heat Island in the MASP
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
FLOOD CHARACTERISTICS
•75% FLASH FLOODS Td > 20 oC
•60% SEA BREEZE + T> 30 oC
•13 FLOODS A YEAR ( 2000 - 2004)
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
NCEP
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
NEW TOOLS to reduce flood impacts:
• MESONET;
• MICRONET;
• DOW X-POL DUAL;
• ARPS/T-TEB SYSTEM.
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
FAPESP/GESP
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Link de
dados
Container
Climatizado c/
equipamentos
Conjunto Antena
pedestal do radar
DOW X-POL DUAL
V
H
ACOP
ACOP
Junta rotativa
elevação
Motor
Elevação
Slip Ring
Encoder
Elevação
Redutor
Mecânico
elevação
encoder
Azimute
Interface
elétrica
Interface
elétrica
Servo Driver
Azimute
Servo Driver
Elevação
Compressor
TR
Ang AZ
RCP8
Ang EL
Cont AZ
Cont EL
ACP
Nivelamento
Eletrônico
Sistema de
nivelamento
Controle da Antena /
Monitoração
Redutor
Mecânico azimute
Motor
Azimute
Grupo
gerador
Antena
Pedestal
RX Digital
Processador
Sinais
STALO
Receptor GPS
TR
Digital
izador
ACP
RVP8
Produtos
DAFC
Cont
Chave
Controle
da chave
Link de dados
Celular
TX
Trigger
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Rainfall Analysis
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
+
SATELLITE
RADAR
ANALYZED
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Rainfall Forecasting - ARPS
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
ARPS Domain
12-km
(123x123x35) 24 hr ~ 30 min.
2-km
(147x123x35) 24 hr ~3 hr
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Operational Routine
00 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 (hour)
Init
00
48
Init
00
48
Init
00
48
Init
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
CLUSTER
Server (Dual Xeon ) 3.4 Ghz, 01
GB DDR ECC;
16 Nodes P4 3.6 GHz, 512MB DDR
400MHz ECC, 512K cache;
Clic Mandrake 10.1 with kernel
2.6.12;
Libraries MPICH, PVM ATLAS,
LAPACK, ScaLAPACK;
105 Gflops with Linpack;
38 Gflops with ARPS (estimated)
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Example
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Wind and Rainfall Fields (2-km grid)
(123 x 123 x 57)
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Urban Boundary Layer Modeling
of the Metropolitan Area of São
Paulo (MASP)
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Totally urbanized in the MASP
CBERS-2 image (resolution = 20 m )
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Thermodynamics variables
• Calibration of the Urban Surface Model.
• Improve the Numerical Forecast.
• Model and Dataset Interface Set up.
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
qe (K)
IAG-USP
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Goal of Tropical TEB (T-TEB)
• To develop a Tropical Urban Surface Model
calibrated for the MASP, based on Masson
(2000);
• Improve the short-term forecast of rainfall.
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Short Wave Radiation Forcing
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Precipitation: 04-05 Feb 2004
IAG-USP
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Water accumulation at urban surfaces (simul.)
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Urban Surfaces Heat Fluxes
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Hydrological Modeling
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
ANN
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
THE END
Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France