THE BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE an overview by Dr Achim SCHUDT BRAZIL DIMENSIONS 2009 Surface sq km Agricultural Areas million ha Cereal land million ha Pasture million ha Expansion Land million ha BRAZIL 8'547'403 367 62 210 95 USA 9'826'630 420 248 124 - GERMANY 357'000 17 12 5 - Brazil covers 47% of South America 2 Some numbers FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF BRAZIL Official Language Currency Portuguese Brazilian Real - R$ System of Government President since 2002 Presidentialist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva Capital City States of the Federation Surface Population Main Cities Brasilia - DF 26 + DF 8.547.403 sq km 193 million inhabitants population - 2007 (inhabitants) 20'090'249 6'161'047 2'948'733 2'557'157 2'473'614 São Paulo Rio de Janeiro Salvador Brasília Fortaleza BRAZILIAN COMMERCIAL TRADE US$ 197.9 billion Exports - 2008 Export goods Main export partners BRAZILIAN ECONOMY US$ 1.994 trillion Gross Domestic Product - 2008 US$ 10,551 GDP per capita - 2008 agriculture : 5,5% GDP by sector - 2007 industry: 28,7% services: 65,5% 9,81% Inflation - 2008 Imports - 2008 Import goods Main import partners transport equipment, iron ore, soybeans, footwear, coffee, autos, automotive parts, machinery United States 15.8%, Argentina 9.9%, China 7.9%, Netherlands 5.4%, Germany 4.7% (2008*) US$ 173.2 billion machinery, electrical and transport equipment, chemical products, oil, automotive parts, electronics United States 11.9%, China 10.6%, Argentina 9,0%, Germany 7,5%, Nigeria 4.5%, Japan 4.0% (2008) 3 Population Population: 193 million inhabitants source: FAO 4 Brazil’s Agricultural Products Position in the World Production Exports Production (quantity) (quantity) costs Sugar 1. 1. 1. Ethanol 1. 1. 1. Soybean 2. 1. 2. Maize 3. 4. 1. Beef 2. 1. 1. Poultry 3. 2. 1. Swine 3. 4. 1. Coffee 1. 1. 1. Orange 1. 1. 1. Products BRAZIL - MAIN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS EXPORTED Others 17% Soybean 28% Tobbacco 3% Leather 3% Fruit juice 3% Leather products 4% Coffee 5% Meat 15% Wood products 7% Sugar 7% Cellulose 8% 5 Worldbank Country Ranking by Product - Brazilian Classification BRAZIL – 1st PLACE COFFEE 1st 2nd 3rd Brazil Viet Nam Colombia ORANGE JUICE PROD. FRESH ORANGE PROD. ORANGE 1st Brazil 2nd United States 3rd Mexico 1st Brazil 2nd United States 3rd China SUGAR PROD. 1st 2nd 3rd Brazil India China BRAZIL - 2nd PLACE MEAT, BEEF & VEAL PROD. 1st 2nd 3rd United States Brazil China SOYBEAN OILSEED PROD. 1st 2nd 3rd United States Brazil Argentina 1st TURKEY MEAT PROD. 2nd 3rd United States Brazil Canada 1st 2nd 3rd United States China Brazil BRAZIL - 3rd PLACE MEAT, SWINE PROD. 1st 2nd 3rd China United States Brazil POULTRY BROILER MEAT PROD. 1st 2nd 3rd United States China Brazil CORN And also : Cheese Prod – 2nd / Milk Powder Prod – 3rd / Cottonseed Prod – 4th / Soybean Meal Prod – 4th / Fluid Milk Prod – 5th 6 Economical Occupation Major economic centers Regional Metropolis Megalopolis More developped industrialized and urbanized areas Modern agricultural areas Traditional agricultural areas with some cities and industries Sparsely populated areas with natural inlands Sparsely populated areas with stagnant economy "Agricultural frontier" expansion 7 THE BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE MAIN PRODUCTS Land Cover source: FAO 9 CLIMATE Wet Equatorial Wet Coastal Tropical Semiarid CLIMATES CONTROLLED BY TROPICAL AND POLAR AIR MASSES Wet Subtropical Hot Current Cold current 10 Permanent Crops & Arable Lands Area (million Specification ha) Pasture 210 Annual Crops 47 Permanent Crops 15 Planted Forest 5 Cities 20 Amazon Biome 350 Legal reserve 55 Idle land 95 Other uses 54 TOTAL 851 source: FAO 11 Farming Land Properties Division BRAZIL 2003 - FARMINGLAND - PROPERTIES DIVISION Layers Properties Total area Average nr of total area (ha) % ha % properties Less than 10 1338771 31,6% 7616113 1,8% 5,7 From 10 to 25 1102999 26,0% 18985869 4,5% 17,2 From 25 to 50 684237 16,1% 24141638 5,7% 35,3 From 50 to 100 485482 11,5% 33630240 8,0% 69,3 From 100 to 500 482677 11,4% 100216200 23,8% 207,6 From 500 to 1.000 75158 1,8% 52191003 12,4% 694,4 From 1.000 to 2.000 36859 0,9% 50932790 12,1% 1381,8 More than 2.000 32264 0,8% 132631509 31,6% 4110,8 TOTAL 4238447 100,0% 420345362 100,0% 99,2 Less than 2% of brazilians own 40% of the agricultural area 12 Agriculture – Land Distribution Brazil has between 90 and 100 million additional hectares for growing crops. 90% are in cerrado. Each region has its advantages and disadvantages, but all regions are usable: - plains with sunlight and water but poor soil - wet, deforested areas - semiarid areas Cerrado (soybean, corn, cotton, sugarcane etc.) Deforested areas (oil palm) Dry lands (castor bean) 13 Grain Crops BRAZIL 2008/09 - GRAIN CROPS CROP SOYBEAN MAIZE RICE WHEAT BEANS COTTON SORGHUM PEANUT OAT BARLEY TRITICALE SUNFLOWER CASTOR BEAN RYE TOTAL source: CONAB PLANTED AREA in 1000 ha 21.249,1 14.434,1 2.874,9 2.424,1 4.124,6 854,5 878,1 110,2 108,4 74,3 73,9 119,2 163,9 4,0 47.493,3 PRODUCTION in 000 ton 57.759,1 52.282,3 12.177,1 6.030,8 3.592,4 1.975,0 1.967,1 283,2 239,5 234,5 185,8 170,9 130,9 5,2 137.033,8 % PRODUCTIVITY kg/ha 42,1% 2.718 38,2% 3.622 8,9% 4.236 4,4% 2.488 2,6% 871 1,4% *3.791 1,4% 2.240 0,2% 2.570 0,2% 2.209 0,2% 3.156 0,1% 2.514 0,1% 1.434 0,1% 799 0,0% 1.300 100,0% *cotton plum = 1.480 kg/ha 14 Coffee Production Evolution – 1999/2008 15 Coffee Production by State 2008 - COFFEE PRODUCTION BY STATE AREA PRODUCTION STATE 000 60 kg in ha bags Minas Gerais 1.048.172 23.581 Espírito Santo 489.592 10.230 São Paulo 188.495 4.420 Paraná 96.920 2.608 Bahia 125.033 2.141 Rondônia 155.972 1.876 Mato Grosso 15.007 138 Pará 12.917 233 Rio de Janeiro 13.562 266 Others 24.125 499 Total 2.169.795 45.992 source: MAPA 16 Sugar Cane, Sugar and Ethanol Production by State and Region - 2008 SUGAR CANE PRODUCTION in 000 ton AREA State in 000 ha TOTAL SHARE % NORTH 20,6 1.348,6 0% Amazonas 3,9 314,0 0,1% Pará 11,0 749,6 0,1% Tocantins 5,7 285,0 0,0% NORTHEAST 1.037,3 67.868,0 11,9% Maranhão 38,9 2.385,0 0,4% Piauí 13,1 900,9 0,2% Ceará 1,6 111,5 0,0% Rio Grande do Norte 55,5 3.075,0 0,5% Paraíba 112,5 6.117,0 1,1% Pernambuco 316,6 20.418,1 3,6% Alagoas 426,8 29.864,3 5,2% Sergipe 34,9 2.306,2 0,4% Bahia 37,4 2.690,0 0,5% CENTER-WEST 900,8 66.510,1 11,6% Mato Grosso 223,2 16.109,9 2,8% Mato Grosso do Sul 275,8 20.755,0 3,6% Goiás 401,8 29.645,2 5,2% SOUTHEAST 4.540,1 392.605,7 68,7% Minas Gerais 600,7 44.120,0 7,7% Espírito Santo 65,2 4.419,0 0,8% Rio de Janeiro 50,0 3.556,3 0,6% São Paulo 3.824,2 340.510,4 59,6% SOUTH 511,4 43.038,3 7,5% Paraná 509,3 42.918,3 7,5% Rio Grande do Sul 2,1 120,0 0,0% NORTH / NORTHEAST 1.057,9 69.216,6 12,1% CENTER-SOUTH 5.952,3 502.154,1 87,9% BRAZIL 7.010,2 571.370,7 100,0% REGION Source: CONAB dec 08 SUGAR ETHANOL 000 ton 53,3 16,5 36,8 4.957,6 24,8 69,0 255,2 190,8 1.710,1 2.467,5 118,4 121,8 2.615,7 506,3 1.006,1 1.103,3 22.079,3 2.639,2 109,7 263,7 19.066,7 2.379,5 2.379,5 5.010,9 27.074,5 32.085,4 000 liters 60.566,3 8.648,0 29.754,8 22.163,5 2.218.251,6 176.990,8 28.737,5 7.803,7 79.182,4 323.424,1 567.504,6 796.337,3 106.050,9 132.220,3 3.825.539,1 1.002.867,8 1.064.044,2 1.758.627,1 18.577.538,9 1.970.646,1 281.517,1 101.767,7 16.223.608,0 1.924.401,3 1.915.397,6 9.003,7 2.278.817,9 24.327.479,3 26.606.297,2 IN 2008 THE SUGAR CANE CROPS GREW 653.700 HA: 54% EXPANDED OVER PASTURE LANDS (=0,2% OF THE TOTAL PASTURES) 22% OVER THE GRAIN AREAS (=0,4% OF THE GRAIN LAND) OBS: ETHANOL ANHYDROUS : 38% HYDRATED: 62% 17 Sugar & Ethanol Production BRAZIL - 1991-2008 - SUGAR (in 000 ton) AND ETHANOL PRODUCTION (in million l) EVOLUTION BRAZIL - 1991-2008 SUGAR CANE PRODUCTION EVOLUTION - in 000 ton 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 SUGAR - in 000 ton SUGAR YEAR 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 source:UNICA QUANTITY US$ FOB 000 t US$ mi 6.506,4 11.169,8 15.245,9 12.914,5 15.764,1 18.160,3 18.870,3 19.364,5 19.472,5 1.199,1 2.277,5 2.093,6 2.140,0 2.640,2 3.918,8 6.167,0 5.100,4 5.483,0 07 /08 06 /0 7 05 /0 6 04 /0 5 03 /0 4 02 /0 3 01 /02 00 /01 99 /0 0 98 /9 9 97 /9 8 96 /97 95 /9 6 94 /95 93 /9 4 92 /9 3 91 /9 2 90 /91 07 /08 06 /07 05 /06 04 /05 03 /04 02 /03 01 /02 00 /01 99 /00 98 /99 97 /98 96 /97 95 /96 94 /95 93 /94 92 /93 10.000 5.000 0 91 /92 90 /91 500.000 450.000 400.000 350.000 300.000 250.000 200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 ETHANOL - in million liters ETHANOL AVERAGE QUANTITY US$ FOB PRICE US$/t million liters US$ mi 184,30 203,90 137,32 165,71 167,48 215,79 326,81 263,39 281,58 227,3 345,7 789,2 757,4 2.408,3 2.600,6 3.416,6 3.530,1 5.118,7 34,8 92,1 169,2 158,0 497,7 765,5 1.604,7 1.477,6 2.390,1 AVERAGE PRICE US$/m³ 153,07 266,57 214,35 208,57 206,68 294,36 469,69 418,58 140,23 18 Livestock & Poultry Production 1975/2005 - LIVESTOCK & POULTRY PRODUCTION EVOLUTION - in 000 animals 1975 1980 1985 1995 2006 Poultry 286.810 413.180 436.809 718.538 1.244.261 Cattle 101.674 118.086 128.042 153.058 169.900 Swine 35.152 32.629 30.481 27.811 31.949 Sheeps 17.487 17.951 16.148 13.955 13.857 Goats 6.709 7.908 8.208 6.591 7.109 source: IBGE BRAZIL - 1975/2005 - LIVESTOCK & POULTRY PRODUCTION EVOLUTION - in 000 animals 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 0 1975 1980 1985 1995 2006 Goats Sheep Swine Cattle Poultry 19 THE BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE COMMERCIAL TRADE Commercial Balance THE BRAZILIAN BASIC SECTOR REPRESENTS 37% OF THE BRAZILIAN EXPORTS COMMERCIAL BALAN CE - 2007/ 2008 BRAZIL 2002-2008 - COMMERCIAL BALANCE EVOLUTION - in million US$ DESCRIPTION EXPORTS BASIC INDUSTRIALIZED SEMIMANUFACTURED MANUFACTURED SPECIAL OPERATIONS 2002 60.362 16.952 41.965 8.964 33.001 1.445 2003 73.084 21.179 50.597 10.943 39.654 1.308 2004 96.475 28.518 66.379 13.431 52.948 1.578 2005 118.308 34.721 81.105 15.961 65.144 2.482 2006 137.807 40.285 94.541 19.523 75.018 2.981 2007 160.649 51.596 105.743 21.800 83.943 3.310 2008 197.942 73.028 119.755 27.073 92.682 5.159 % 2008 100% 37% 61% 14% 47% 3% 4500 IMPORTS RAW MATERIALS AND INTERM. GOODS CONSUMER GOODS FUELS AND LUBRICANTS CAPITAL GOODS 47.240 23.448 5.909 6.240 11.643 48.305 25.837 5.539 6.579 10.350 62.835 33.526 6.863 10.302 12.144 73.606 37.804 8.484 11.931 15.387 91.351 45.275 11.955 15.197 18.924 120.617 59.405 16.024 20.068 25.120 173.207 83.295 22.519 31.466 35.927 100% 48% 13% 18% 21% 1500 BALANCE source: SECEX 13.122 24.779 33.640 44.702 46.456 40.032 24.735 3500 3000 2500 2000 1000 500 0 JAN FEV M AR ABR M AI JUN JUL AGO 2007 SET OUT 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 M AR ABR M AI JUN JUL AGO SET DEZ 2008 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 FEV NOV BRAZ IL - IMPORT S - 2007/ 2008 BR AZ IL - EXPORT S - 2007/ 2008 JAN 4000 OUT NOV DEZ JAN Source: FEV M AR ABR M AI JUN JUL AGO SET OUT NOV DEZ MDIC 2007 2008 2007 2008 21 Exports BRAZIL - 1990/2008 - EXPORTS EVOLUTION SHARE BY AGGREGATED FACTOR BRAZIL - 1990/2008 - EXPORTS EVOLUTION - in US$ million FOB 200.000 180.000 160.000 140.000 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 197.942 100% 80% 160.649 137.807 118.529 60% 40% 96.677 20% 0% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 COMMODITIES SEMI-MANUFACTURED MANUFACTURED OTHERS BRAZIL - 2008 - EXPORTS BY AGGREGATED FACTOR - in US$ million FOB 5.159; 3% 73.028; 37% 92.683; 46% 27.073; 14% Source: MDIC COMMODITIES SEMI-MANUFACTURED MANUFACTURED OTHERS 22 Main brazilian exports in decreasing order – in US$ FOB In green : main agricultural exports 2008 - MAIN BRAZILIAN EXPORTS IN DECREASING ORDER PRODUCTS US$ FOB Iron ore and concentrates 16.538.542.577 Crude oil 13.555.608.149 Soybean wether or not broken 10.952.196.541 Poultry meat, fresh or frozen 5.821.977.431 Airplanes 5.495.247.707 Vehicles 4.915.736.805 Soybean meal and residues 4.363.523.095 Raw coffee beans 4.131.465.443 Beef meat, fresh or frozen 4.006.139.123 Semimanufactured goods of iron and steel 4.001.545.449 Chemicals wood paste 3.901.135.733 Raw sugar cane 3.649.552.937 Vehicles and tractors pieces and parts 3.510.094.987 Raw molten iron and "spiegel" iron 3.144.985.399 Fuel oil 2.964.490.648 Tobacco leaves and waste 2.683.203.506 Transmitter and receptor units and components 2.549.968.693 Ethyl alcohol 2.390.109.630 Iron-alloys 2.306.534.863 Commercial vehicle 2.175.963.333 Motors, generator and electrical transformer, and parts 2.166.618.500 Soybean oil 1.984.503.163 Tractors 1.956.122.904 Iron or steel rod products 1.920.689.379 Shoes, their parts and components 1.881.308.351 Hides and skins, shaved, except raw 1.867.358.826 Refined sugar 1.833.411.751 1.737.799.099 Machines for earthmoving, drilling source: MDIC - dec08 % 8,4 6,9 5,5 2,9 2,8 2,5 2,2 2,1 2,0 2,0 2,0 1,8 1,8 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,2 1,1 1,1 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 0,9 0,9 0,9 23 THE BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE TRANSPORTS Transport Costs Brazil is huge, rich in water and sunlight, but ... ...soil, especially the cerrado, needs acidity correction and lots of fertilizers. Logistiscs is also not favorable as compared to Argentina and the United States. Inland Freight - Port Port Cost Ocean Freight to Rotterdam Total Brazil 22 USA 15 Argentina 6 17 3 12 3 18 45 30 35 14 25 Load Transport Distribution BRAZIL - 2006 - LOAD TRANSPORT DISTRIBUTION 3,6% 0,4% 13,0% 58,0% 25,0% Roadway source: BNDES Railway W aterway Pipeline Airway 26 Transports Net CAPITALS INTL. AIRPORTS PORTS FEDERAL HIGHWAYS RAILWAYS Source; IBGE 27 Roadways PAVED UNPAVED PROJECT 28 Roads – Paved / Unpaved Roads Distribution by State - 2006 REGION and State NORTH Rondônia Acre PAVED 102.493 14.928 15.481 7.456 % UNPAVED % 15% 87.565 85% 1.622 10% 13.859 90% 916 12% 6.540 88% Amazonas 6.278 1.640 26% 4.638 74% Roraima 7.169 1.117 16% 6.053 84% 35.368 4.177 12% 31.191 88% Pará Amapá 2.290 323 14% 1.967 86% Tocantins 28.450 5.132 18% 23.318 82% NORTHEAST 409.509 53.037 13% 356.472 87% Maranhão 55.441 6.962 13% 48.479 87% Piauí 57.583 4.562 8% 53.021 92% Ceará 51.730 8.279 16% 43.452 84% Rio Grande do Norte 27.569 4.602 17% 22.967 83% Paraíba 35.532 3.753 11% 31.780 89% Pernambuco 42.385 6.293 15% 36.092 85% Alagoas 13.062 2.302 18% 10.759 82% Sergipe 5.331 2.055 39% 3.276 61% 88% Bahia 120.876 14.230 12% 106.646 523.959 63.544 12% 460.415 88% Minas Gerais 272.060 22.906 8% 249.155 92% Espírito Santo 30.433 3.321 11% 27.112 89% Rio de Janeiro 22.581 6.086 27% 16.495 73% 198.884 31.230 16% 167.654 84% 336.633 40.544 12% 296.089 88% 120.298 21.173 18% 99.126 82% SOUTHEAST São Paulo SOUTH Paraná Santa Catarina 62.817 7.037 11% 55.779 89% 153.518 12.334 8% 141.184 92% 230.537 24.226 11% 206.311 89% Mato Grosso do Sul 86.721 6.041 7% 80.679 93% Mato Grosso 54.164 5.713 11% 48.452 89% Goiás 87.908 11.595 13% 76.313 87% 1.744 877 50% 867 50% 1.603.131 196.279 12% 1.406.852 88% Rio Grande do Sul CENTER-WEST source: DNIT ROADWAYS TOTAL Distrito Federal TOTAL 88% of the brazilian roads have no pavement 29 Railways and their Administration 30 Railways - Transported Load and Gauge Information BRAZIL - 2006 - RAILWAYS EXTENSION OF THE RAILWAYS BY GAUGE BRAZIL 2006 - RAILWAYS - TRANSPORTED LOAD COMPANY AND GAUGE 2006 RAILWAY ACRONYM TON 3 TON-KM 6 10 10 18.150 América Latina Logística do Brasil ALL 28.942 Companhia Ferroviária do Nordeste CFN 1.519 678 Estrada de Ferro Carajás EFC 92.587 76.683 Estrada de Ferro Vitória a Minas EFVM 131.620 73.442 Ferrovia Centro-Atlântica S.A. FCA 15.177 9.143 Ferrovia Novoeste S.A. NOVOESTE 3.355 1.430 Ferrovia Paraná FERROPAR 1.511 1.005 Ferrovia Tereza Cristina S.A. FTC 2.627 183 Ferrovias Bandeirantes S.A. FERROBAN 4.221 2.231 Ferrovias Norte do Brasil MRS Logística S.A. TOTAL FERRONORTE MRS 5.551 7.446 101.998 47.662 389.109 238.054 Source: ANTT. 80% of the brazilian railway net has 1,0 m gauge América Latina Logística do Brasil 1,00 m 1,00 / 1,44 m Companhia Ferroviária do Nordeste S.A. 1,00 m 1,00 / 1,60 m Estrada de Ferro Carajás 1,60 m Ferrovia Norte-Sul 1,60 m Estrada de Ferro Vitória a Minas 1,00 m Ferrovia Centro-Atlântica S.A. 1,00 m 1,00 / 1,60 m Ferrovia Novoeste S.A. 1,00 m 1,60 m Ferrovia Paraná 1,00 m Ferrovia Tereza Cristina S.A. 1,00 m Ferrovias Bandeirantes S.A. 1,00 m 1,60 m 1,00 / 1,60 m Ferrovias Norte do Brasil 1,00 m 1,60 m MRS Logística S.A. 1,60 m 1,00 / 1,60 m ACRONYM ALL CFN EFC FNS EFVM FCA NOVOESTE FERROPAR FTC FERROBAN FERRONORTE MRS KM 7.225 7.214 11 4.238 4.220 18 892 892 362 362 905 905 8.093 7.885 208 1.942 1.942 248 248 164 164 2.029 241 1.513 275 504 504 1.674 1.632 42 TOTAL 29.013 1,00 m 23.131 1,10 m 17 1,00 / 1,44 m 11 1,00 / 1,60 m 543 1,60 m 5.310 Fontes: ANTT, CBTU, CENTRAL, CPTM, TRENSURB, EFCJ, EFMRN e 31 Main Waterways and their Administrations 32 THE BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE MECHANIZATION LEVEL Agriculture Mechanization Level BRAZIL - 1960/2007 - WHEEL TRACTOR FLEET & MECHANIZATION LEVEL 600.000 450 400 500.000 350 300 250 300.000 200 200.000 150 ha/wheel tractor units 400.000 100 100.000 50 - 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 WHEEL TRACTOR - in un 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 BRAZIL - 1960/2007 WHEEL TRACTOR FLEET MECHANIZATION LEVEL - ha/wheel tractor YEAR 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 WHEEL MECHANIZATION CULTIVATED TRACTOR - in LEVEL - ha/wheel AREA - in ha un tractor 62.684 25.672 410 76.691 31.637 413 97.160 34.912 359 273.852 41.811 153 480.340 47.641 99 551.036 49.529 90 515.815 47.666 92 481.316 50.022 104 450.000 53.300 118 354.722 59.339 167 361.453 57.882 160 sources: ANFAVEA - IBGE 34 Vehicles & Agricultural Machinery Commercial Balance – in US$ mi BRAZIL - 1975/2008 - VEHICLES COMMERCIAL BALANCE EVOLUTION - in US$ million VEHICLES YEAR AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY TOTAL BALANCE IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS 302 524 436 733 4.795 3.764 5.257 8.433 334 1.101 1.604 1.897 2.415 3.488 9.391 10.884 99 72 97 200 279 451 934 1.637 17 120 269 512 449 465 2.051 2.577 401 596 533 933 5.074 4.215 6.191 10.070 351 1.221 1.873 2.409 2.864 3.953 11.442 13.461 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 ANNUAL (50) 625 1.340 1.476 (2.210) (262) 5.251 3.391 source: ANFAVEA 35 Agricultural Machinery Production & Sales YEAR 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 BRAZIL - 2000/2007 AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY- IMPORTS, EXPORTS & DOMESTIC SALES IMPORTS - in units EXPORTS - in units DOMESTIC SALES - in units WHEEL WHEEL WHEEL TILLERS COMBINES TILLERS COMBINES TILLERS COMBINES TRACTORS TRACTORS TRACTORS 300 152 90 3.455 683 722 24.591 3.780 113 44 74 5.814 1.202 856 28.203 4.098 31 32 46 7.945 1.199 1.050 33.217 5.648 71 6 6 16.589 3.232 1.585 29.476 5.440 167 7 23 23.553 4.533 1.682 28.803 5.605 186 1 34 23.968 3.001 2.141 17.729 1.534 294 46 16.532 1.867 1.857 20.435 1.030 609 30 129 20.068 2.783 1.548 31.300 2.377 source: ANFAVEA 36 Agricultural Machinery Market BRAZIL - 2000/2007 - AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY PRODUCTION - in units 2006 70.000 1.703 60.000 1.597 1.722 5.148 1.079 6.851 2.183 4.229 947 5.196 40.000 20.000 10.433 9.195 50.000 30.000 No-tilling system in the world: 34.781 Brazil : 53% - 1.940 2.314 813 4.296 40.352 47.109 52.768 50.719 40.871 Argentina : 74% - 18,2 million ha 35.586 25.5 million ha Canada : 31,8% - 12.5 million ha 27.546 10.000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 WHEEL TRACTORS 2004 2005 COMBINES 2006 2007 USA : 19% 25.3 million ha Australia : 20.5% - 9.0 million ha TILLERS BRAZIL - 2008 - AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY MARKET AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY Wheel tractors - total up to 49 CV from 50 CV to 99 CV from 100 CV to 199 CV above 200 CV Tillers Combines Total PRODUCTION in units INTERNAL SALES - in un 66.504 1.229 33.850 30.433 992 1.751 8.407 76.662 41.966 1.123 23.107 17.082 654 1.852 4.340 48.158 EXPORTS in un 23.005 23 10.534 12.112 336 13 3.567 26.585 source: ANFAVEA Obs: In 2008, AGCO, New Holland and John Deere imported 1.448 wheel tractors and 118 combines. 37 Agricultural Credit Distribution BRAZIL - 1990/2006 - AGRICULTURAL CREDIT BY CATEGORY in US$ million YEAR 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 COSTS TOTAL SHARE 8.249 77,5% 9.361 84,2% 7.901 63,5% 5.869 57,9% 10.141 59,1% 4.447 66,3% 4.626 81,1% 6.152 76,4% 6.538 74,7% 6.354 73,0% 6.068 68,2% 6.349 63,4% 7.285 64,1% 8.555 64,6% 9.821 61,7% 9.075 61,8% 8.832 60,7% INVESTMENT TOTAL SHARE 741 7,0% 639 5,7% 1.219 9,8% 1.656 16,3% 3.598 21,0% 912 13,6% 663 11,6% 951 11,8% 939 10,7% 1.002 11,5% 1.021 11,5% 1.330 13,3% 1.789 15,7% 2.404 18,2% 2.810 17,6% 2.413 16,4% 2.527 17,4% SALES TOTAL SHARE 1.651 15,5% 1.114 10,0% 3.323 26,7% 2.615 25,8% 3.428 20,0% 1.344 20,1% 415 7,3% 945 11,7% 1.271 14,5% 1.345 15,5% 1.802 20,3% 2.340 23,4% 2.292 20,2% 2.286 17,3% 3.296 20,7% 3.186 21,7% 3.187 21,9% TOTAL 10.641 11.114 12.443 10.140 17.167 6.703 5.704 8.048 8.748 8.701 8.891 10.019 11.366 13.245 15.927 14.674 14.546 BRAZIL - 2006 - AGRICULTURAL CREDIT BY INVESTMENT DISTRIBUTION 0% 0% 16% 23% 0% OTHER TRACTORS COMBINES TRUCKS VANS, JEEPS & ALIKE TILLERS 61% source: ANFAVEA / BACEN BRAZIL - 200/2006 - AGRICULTURAL CREDIT BY INVESTMENT DISTRIBUTION - in US$ 000 YEAR 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 TRACTORS TOTAL SHARE 250.576 24,5% 271.028 20,4% 347.904 19,5% 578.189 24,0% 625.837 22,3% 574.754 23,8% 592.102 23,4% source: ANFAVEA / BACEN COMBINES TOTAL SHARE 178.114 17,5% 209.375 15,7% 237.287 13,3% 449.228 18,7% 607.001 21,6% 450.262 18,7% 409.530 16,2% TILLERS TOTAL SHARE 815 0,1% 1.132 0,1% 3.225 0,2% 6.360 0,3% 6.356 0,2% 8.657 0,4% 2.758 0,1% TRUCKS TOTAL SHARE 7.106 0,7% 10.356 0,8% 24.823 1,4% 10.904 0,5% 7.326 0,3% 11.067 0,5% 8.777 0,3% VANS, JEEPS & ALIKE TOTAL SHARE 2.116 0,2% 2.718 0,2% 7.303 0,4% 4.013 0,2% 3.022 0,1% 1.943 0,1% 3.196 0,1% OTHER TOTAL SHARE 581.964 57,0% 835.734 62,8% 1.167.969 65,3% 1.355.739 56,4% 1.560.640 55,5% 1.365.949 56,6% 1.510.411 59,8% TOTAL 1.020.691 1.330.343 1.788.511 2.404.433 2.810.182 2.412.632 2.526.774 38 THE BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE BIO-ENERGY Energy-Level Level of Utilization Brazil's success in poultry exports is the result of the synergy between the animal protein and grain industries (soybean, corn etc.) The use of sugarcane energy is expected to develop exponentially “Bioenergy Hub” Sugar/Alcohol complex Sugar mill p Mill 17th century 19th century 20th century 21st century 40 Vehicles Production by type of fuel BRAZIL 2008 - VEHICLES PRODUCTION BY TYPE - in units Total production: 3.227.012 un BRAZIL 2008 - VEHICLES PRODUCTION BY TYPE OF FUEL - in units 44.111 un 1% 326.642 un 10% 167.330 un 5% 448.247un 14% 640.486 un 20% VEHICLES LIGHT COMM. VEH TRUCKS BUSES 3.627 un 0% FLEX FUEL PETROL DIESEL ETHANOL 2.256.257 un 70% 2.567.324 un 80% BRAZIL 1970/2007 - VEHICLES PRODUCTION BY TYPE OF FUEL - in units 2.500.000 2.000.000 1.500.000 FLEX-FUEL ETHANOL PETROL 1.000.000 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 0 1972 Source: ANFAVEA 1970 500.000 41 Bio-energy World trade is a game of trade offs... An effective strategy to win this game will be the production of biofuels. Sugarcane and oilseeds will be unbeatable if both play doubles. ? Diesel Oilseeds Sugar/alcohol 42 Sugar cane production Productivity In 30 years, the productivity increased 65%. Plantada area Área colhida Production Productivity (milllion ton) (Ton / ha) Ano 1975 1,9 1,9 88,2 46,82 1976 2,08 2,08 102,77 49,43 1977 2,27 2,27 120,01 52,93 1978 2,39 2,39 129,06 54,04 1979 2,54 2,54 139,27 54,79 1980 2,61 2,61 146,23 56,09 1981 2,8 2,8 153,78 54,86 1982 3,08 3,08 186,38 60,47 1983 3,48 3,48 216,45 62,16 1984 3,85 3,85 241,39 62,55 1985 3,9 3,9 246,54 63,22 1986 3,95 3,95 238,49 60,44 1987 4,35 4,31 268,58 62,31 1988 4,15 4,12 258,45 62,78 252,29 62,02 90 1989 4,01 4,07 8 80 1990 4,29 4,27 262,6 61,49 7 70 1991 4,24 4,21 260,84 61,94 6 60 5 50 4 40 3 30 Area Productivity 20 07 20 05 20 03 20 01 19 99 19 97 19 95 19 93 19 91 19 89 19 87 19 85 0 19 83 0 19 81 10 19 79 20 1 19 77 2 PRODUCTIVITY (in ton/ha) 9 19 75 AREA (in million ha) BRAZIL 1997/2007 - SUGAR CANE - AREA AND PRODUCTIVITY Area (million hectares) 1992 4,2 4,2 271,43 64,61 1993 3,97 3,86 244,3 63,24 1994 4,36 4,34 292,07 67,23 1995 4,62 4,57 303,56 66,49 1996 4,9 4,83 325,93 67,52 1997 4,95 4,86 337,2 69,1 1998 5 4,97 338,97 68,18 1999 4,86 4,85 331,71 68,41 2000 4,82 4,82 325,33 67,51 2001 5,02 4,96 344,28 69,44 2002 5,21 5,1 363,72 71,31 2003 5,38 5,37 389,85 72,58 2004 5,57 5,63 416,26 73,88 2005 5,62 5,76 419,56 72,83 2006 7,04 6,19 457,98 74,05 2007 7,85 6,71 514,08 76,6 43 Grain Crops Production & Productivity Evolution – 1990/2008 BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE - 1990/2008 - AREA & PRODUCTIVITY EVOLUTION 60.000 3.500 2.500 AREA - in 000 ha 40.000 2.000 30.000 1.500 20.000 1.000 AREA : + 25% 10.000 PRODUCTIVITY - in ton/ha 3.000 50.000 500 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 AREA 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTION : + 136% 44 Advantages and Disadvantages of the Brazilian Agriculture Advantages : • Great land reserves for agriculture • Low land price • Favorable climate • Good administration capacities • Low salaries • Tropical technology for agriculture • Bio-energy potential • Huge amounts • Great demand from worldwide markets • Great internal market • Supported by the Brazilian politics Disadvantages : • Bad transports infrastructure and logistics • Capital high cost (high interests) 45 Politics supports “As the Brazilian agriculture is competitive, new chances and opportunities appear : general development, more jobs and more incomes, more agriculture products and derivatives, more exports, more energy.” 46 Sources • MAPA : Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento • MDIC : Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria e Comércio Exterior • IBGE : Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística • DIEESE : Departamento Intersindical de Estatística e Estudos Socioeconômicos • ANFAVEA : Associação Nacional dos Fabricantes de Veículos Automotores • CONAB : Companhia Nacional do Abastecimento • BACEN : Banco Central do Brasil • UNICA : União da Indústria da Cana-de-Açúcar • DNIT : Departamento Nacional de Infra-Estrutura de Transporte • SECEX : Secretaria de Comércio Exterior do Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria e Comércio Exterior • WORLDBANK : The World Bank • FAO : Food and Agriculture Organiation of the United States 47 THANK YOU VIELEN DANK 48 THE BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE APPENDIX RELIEF Elevation & Slope The highest mountain, Pico da Neblina, has 2.994 m source: FAO 50 CLIMATE Temperature & Precipitation source: FAO 51 Major Environmental Constraints source: FAO 52 Farming Systems source: FAO 53