Mauricio Mendes
Gilberto Tozatti
International Citrus
Economics Conference
Oct 2010, Florida - USA
AgraFNP and GCONCI
An information and consulting
agribusiness company
Citrus Consultants Group
A nonprofit organization which
join 17 independent agronomists
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Long Term Outlook
The study consisted in the discussion of upside and downside
qualitative factors (sensitive) and probabilities that influence a
long term Brazilian citrus crop projection
The main aspects considered in this study was:
PRODUCTION
ECONOMIC
DISEASES
Acreage
Cost of production
Sudden Death
Growers
Profitability
Citrus Canker
Trees and production
Gross margin
CVC
Level of technology
Cost opportunities
Blossom Blight
Other crops
HLB (greening)
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
PRODUCTION
ECONOMIC
DISEASES
Brazilian States Participation
São Paulo State represents 78% of the total production and 70% of the total area.
Source: IBGE, 2008
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Number of Citrus Growers
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Citrus Growers Participation
in the Supply
Source: AgraFNP
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Citrus Growers Range
by Number of Trees (from 2001-2009)
Total
2001 : 15.000
2006 : 13.200
2009 : 12.627
Thousand trees
Source: Markestrat
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
% Citrus Growers
by Number of Trees (from 2001-2009)
Thousand trees
Source: Markestrat
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Citrus Growers Ranged
by Yield – 2009/2010 Season
Range productivity
(boxes/ha)
%
ha
%
Boxes
Volume of Boxes
by Range Productivity
(million)
Productivity
boxes/ha
> 1.400
2%
5%
16
1.655
1.100 and 1.399
7%
13%
41
1.209
800 and 1.099
19%
29%
92
933
500 and 799
28%
30%
95
639
200 and 499
36%
21%
67
345
8%
2%
6
138
100% 100%
317,4
607
TOTAL OVER 500
56%
77%
244,4
909
TOTAL DOWN 499
44%
23%
73
280
< 200
TOTAL
Based on the data from associated processing plants companies
Source: Markestrat
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Citrus Growers Range
by Yield – 2009/2010 Season
56% of the area represents 77%
of the total production
44% of the area
represents 23%
of the total
production only
boxes/ha
Source: Markestrat
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Citrus Trees and Production
in São Paulo State
164,2
317,4
16,4
Source: IEA
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Nurseries in São Paulo State
Source: Fundecitrus
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Acreage, Yield, Production
Yield
+41%
Area
-18%
Prod
+15%
Source: AgraFNP - IEA
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
PRODUCTION
ECONOMIC
DISEASES
Brazilian Citrus
Industry Chain - 2010
- Citrus Chain Revinew = US$ 6.5 Billions
( US$ 2,15 Bi External Mkt and US$ 4,39 Bi Domestic Mkt)
– Exports
US$1,9 Bilhões (US$ 1,28 Bi in FCOJ+NFC ; US$ 0,7 Bi in by products)
• 1,0 % of all Brazilian Exports (US$ 197 Bi)
• 2.9 % of Brazilian AG Exports (US$ 60 Bi)
• 95% Shipping troughtout Santos Port
– 230 K employees
– US$ 819 millions on inputs ( US$ 288 M in pesticides only)
Source: Markestrat
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Harvesting Cost (R$/Bx)
São Paulo Citrus Industry
Source: Markestrat – based on AgraFNP
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Freight Cost (R$/Bx)
São Paulo Citrus Industry
Source: Markestrat – based on AgraFNP
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Diesel Oil Price (R$/Bx)
São Paulo Citrus Industry
Source: Markestrat – based on AgraFNP
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Amount of pesticides used in the
Citrus Industry
Source: Markestrat – SINDAG
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Oranges Production Cost
in BRL and USD / box
Orange - Cost of Production
12,00
9,87
10,02
10,00
9,58
8,24
8,00
5,01
6,00
4,00
7,73
5,64
3,93
1,73
3,28
2,23
1,49
5,21
4,36
2,00
1,70
1,58
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
R$/cx
US$/cx
Fonte: AgraFNP
Source: AgraFNP
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
2
Comparative Orange Production Cost
SP and FL States (US$/bx)
2002/2003
FL Cost 3,3 times
more than SP
2008/2009
Harv &
Transp
FL Cost 1,9 times
more than SP
on tree
Source: CitrusBR, CREC UF/IFAS
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
US$/box
Grower Profitability
Gross Margin (US$)
7,0
6,0
5,0
US$/bx
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
-1,0
-2,0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-3,0
Gross Margin
Total cost
Orange Price
Fonte: AgraFNP, Cepea
Source: AgraFNP, CEPEA
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
BRL/box - Deflat
Grower Profitability
Gross Margin (BRL)
20,0
15,0
10,0
5,0
0,0
-5,0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-10,0
Margem Bruta
Custo
Preço Laranja Indústria
Fonte: iFNP, Cepea
Source: AgraFNP, CEPEA
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
2
US Dollar vs. Brazilian Real
Exchange rate
BRL/USD
Considering US$4.00/bx
Exchange Rate (R$/US$)
date
3,08
3,40
3,20
3,00
2,80
US$/ R$
R$/bx
July 2004
3,08
12,34
Sept 2008
1,65
6,59
Jan 2009
2,38
9,52
Jun 2009
2,26
9,04
Out 2010
1,67
6,68
2,60
2,40
1,65
2,20
2,00
1,80
1,60
Oct/10
1,40
jan/04
jul/04
jan/05
jul/05
jan/06
jul/06
jan/07
jul/07
jan/08
jul/08
jan/09
jul/09
jan/10
jul/10
Source: Banco Central do Brasil
25
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Land Value (US$/Ha)
São Paulo Citrus Belt and Florida
Land Value (US$/HA) in Municipalities
of the São Paulo Citrus Belt and Florida
Municipalities
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Variation in the period
Araraquara
Bauru
Campinas
Itapetininga
Piracicaba
Pirassununga
Ribeirão Preto
São J. do Rio Preto
2.352
2.940
4.621
2.016
3.781
2.520
4.032
2.352
2.699
2.851
4.595
2.532
3.424
3.342
5.159
3.147
4.936
4.923
7.312
3.772
4.971
5.929
8.049
5.869
9.919
10.153
10.534
5.117
10.328
10.666
10.647
8.831
9.126
9.742
10.140
5.478
10.393
9.029
9.633
9.247
288%
231%
119%
172%
175%
258%
139%
293%
Florida -South
15.827
14.647
24.583
39.810
29.842
89%
Source: Markestrat – based on AgraFNP and IFAS survey
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Land Value (US$/Ha)
São Paulo Citrus Belt
Source: Markestrat – based on AgraFNP
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
PRODUCTION
ECONOMIC
DISEASES
HLB Management Costs
Inspection, Eradication and Psilid Control
US$0,30 – US$0,40/box
HLB
Management
Source: GCONCI
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Tree losses in SP
due to the 4 major deseases
Number of erradicated trees in the Citrus Belt due to the four major diseases (x.1000)
TOTA
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
L
CItrusCanker
795
191
71
164
177
153
186
151
115
240 2.243
CVC
678
2.406 2.380 1.023 2.887 4.043 3.320 3.299 3.276 3.070 26.382
Greening
-
-
SuddenDeath
-
-
-
-
-
5.330
5.158
-
5.330
-
Total
Citrus Canker
CVC
Sudden Death
-
5.158
39.113
Greening
Source: Markestrat – CitrusBR, Fundecitrus
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Citrus Canker
% of Infected Blocks
Source: Fundecitrus
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
HLB: % Contaminated Blocks
In São Paulo State
Source: Fundecitrus
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
HLB: Number of Contaminated
Trees in São Paulo State
Source: Fundecitrus
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
2008
Levantamento Amostral
de Greening - 2008
Índices de Contaminação (Plantas)
Sem contaminação
>0% a 0.01%
>0.01% a 0.1%
>0.1% a 1%
>1% a 2%
>2%
2009
Levantamento Amostral
de Greening - 2.009
Índices de Contaminação (Plantas)
Sem contaminação
>0% a 0,01%
>0,01% a 0,1%
>0,1% a 1%
>1% a 2%
>2%
2010
Levantamento Amostral
de Greening - 2010
Processing Plants
Índices de Contaminação (Plantas)
Sem contaminação
>0% a 0,01%
>0,01% a 0,1%
>0,1 % a 1%
>1% a 2%
>2%
HLB Sample Survey
38% of the blocks are contaminated
Source: Fundecitrus
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
HLB incidence vs. Grove Size
Source: Fundecitrus
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
São Paulo Citrus Belt
Source: CATI
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Citrus Production by SP Region
Citrus Belt Movement Trends
Average Temperature
Source: GCONCI
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Ratio of Mid-Season Varieties
in Sao Paulo State
Source: AgraFNP
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Potential Regions: free of HLB
Good condition for Irrigated Citrus projects.
Lack of infra-structure for Orange Juice
Bahia, Tocantins, Goias:
Greening Free States
SP, Minas, Paraná States
Greening found already
Source: GCONCI
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
PRODUCTION
ECONOMIC
DISEASES
OUTLOOK
São Paulo Citrus Industry
Long Term Outlook
Source: GCONCI
International Citrus Economics Conference 2010 – Florida/USA
Gilberto Tozatti
[email protected]
International Citrus
Economics Conference
Oct 2010, Florida - USA